market outlook, 30-07-2013

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Market OutlookJuly 30, 2013

Dealers Diary

Indian markets are expected to open flat to positive tracking positive opening in

SGX Nifty and mixed opening in most of the other Asian markets.

The US market started the week on a down note, posting a modest decline on

Monday as pending home sales fell 0.4%in June due to rising mortgage rates. The

investors are cautiously waiting for the other key events later this week which

includes outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting that

begins on Tuesday, the monthly jobs report and the initial report on second quarter

GDP. Meanwhile, the European markets ended Monday's session with mixed

results. Some positive sentiment was generated by some upbeat earnings news and

M&A activity, but China remains a concern among investors.

Meanwhile, Indian shares fell for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, as

investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's first-

quarter review of its monetary policy. The Finance Minister P Chidambaram stated

that price stability cannot be the only mandate of a central bank and said there is a

need to relax rules to attract more foreign investments.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,638 / 5,848 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,706 19,819 / 5,870 5,908 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,638 / 5,848 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,526 19,458 / 5,810 5,788 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,458 19,526 19,638 19,706 19,819

NIFTY 5,788 5,810 5,848 5,870 5,908

News Analysis

L&T bags`8,250cr project in Riyadh metro project Result Review:Ultratech, Colgate Palmolive, Sesa Goa, Jaiprakash Associates

Syndicate Bank, Madras Cements, Indian Bank, Allahabad Bank, Persistent,Vijaya Bank, Relaxo Footwear, Subros, Hitachi.

Result Preview: NTPC, DRL, Shree Cement, IPCA Labs, PVR, Indoco RemediesRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 26, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,786 2,497 289 (6,104) 65,202

MFs 326 684 (359) (1,982) (14,159)

FII Derivatives (July 29, 2013)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 818 795 24 12,357

Stock Futures 1,355 1,475 (120) 24,639

Gainers / Losers

Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)

Wipro 409 6.7 Wockhardt 517 (10.0)

Prestige Estates 130 5.3 Indian Bank 90 (7.4)

Jindal Steel 199 4.9 IRB Infra 80 (6.7)

Jet Air India 412 4.2 Syndicate Bank 88 (6.4)

CESC 337 3.6 TV18 Broadcast 19 (6.1)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (0.8) (155) 19,593

Nifty (0.9) (55) 5,832

MID CAP (1.3) (76) 5,704

SMALL CAP (0.9) (47) 5,469

BSE HC (0.4) (38) 9,147

BSE PSU (1.8) (102) 5,595

BANKEX (1.2) (144) 11,807

AUTO 0.4 39 10,689

METAL (1.8) (126) 6,853

OIL & GAS (1.2) (103) 8,761

BSE IT 0.8 55 7,297

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.2) (37) 15,522NASDAQ (0.4) (14) 3,599

FTSE 0.1 5 6,560

Nikkei (3.3) (469) 13,661

Hang Sang (0.5) (119) 21,850

Straits Times 0.0 1 3,237

Shanghai Com (1.7) (35) 1,976

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (0.1) (0.1) $49.8

WIT 1.7 0.1 $8.4IBN (0.2) (0.1) $34.2

HDB (0.6) (0.2) $35.0

Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 819 396

Declines 1,427 928

Unchanged 135 77

Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,759

NSE 9,178

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L&T bags`8,250cr project in Riyadh metro project

Larsen & Toubro has bagged an order worth US$1.4bn (~`8,250cr) from

ArRiyadh Development Authority, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the design,

construction and commissioning of a metro project in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The

project will be executed in four years, which will be preceded by eight months toprepare the detailed designs and to carry out the enabling works, the coordination

for utilities diversion and the site preparation works. We continue to maintain Buyrating on the stock with a target price of `1,128.

Result Review

Ultratech (CMP: `1,880/TP:-/Upside :-)

For 1QFY2014 Ultratechs bottomline performance was better than estimates. Net

profit at `673cr (down 13.6% yoy) came in higher than estimates due to higher

other income. Topline fell by 2.3% yoy to`

4,958cr on account of lower volumes aswell as realizations. Domestic clinker and cement sales volume fell by 0.6% yoy to

9.88mn tonnes. OPM fell by 417bp yoy to 21.5% due to lower realization and

increase in freight, raw material and other expenses. Further, the benefit of

softening in imported coal prices was partly offset by depreciation in INR. Other

income stood at`166cr up 141% on yoy basis. We maintain a neutral rating onthe stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)FY2014E 21,704 25.1 2,921106.5 17.8 17.6 2.9 9.7 174

FY2015E 24,834 25.0 3,283119.7 17.3 15.7 2.5 8.7Colgate Palmolive (CMP:`1,408/TP:-/Upside :-)

For 1QFY2014 Colgate Palmolive India (Colgate) results were below expectations.

Top-line rose by 14.7% yoy to`845cr, which was below estimates. The companys

volume growth stood at 9%, aided by a 11% yoy growth in the toothpaste

category. The company enhanced its leadership in the toothpaste category and

achieved a volume market share of 55.9% for January June 2013 (54.7% in

January June 2012). OPM stood at 17.8% down 157bp on yoy basis, impacted

by higher other expenses. Net profit before exceptional items stood at `115cr and

was below estimates. We maintain a neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,588 20.5 601 44.2 108.6 31.9 31.0 27.1 5.2

FY2015E 4,130 20.9 704 51.7 96.2 27.2 22.6 22.6 4.4

Sesa Goa (CMP:`126/ TP:Under Review/ Upside: -)

Sesa Goas (Sesa) 1QFY2014 net profit was slightly ahead of our and street

expectations mainly due to higher-than-expected income from share of its

associate, Cairn India. Sesas net sales declined by 78.2% yoy to`378cr as there

were no iron ore sales from Goa due to mining ban in the region. Its Pig iron and

Met coke gross sales, however, grew 235.3% and 16.1% to `134 and `322cr,

respectively. Sesa reported an EBITDA loss of`43cr during 1QFY2014, compared

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to a positive EBITDA of `676cr during 1QFY2013. Excluding income from its

associate (Cairn India), its PAT loss stood at`211cr, compared to a PAT of`199cr

in 1QFY2013. Sesa reported a share of income from associate (Cairn India) of

`625cr during 1QFY2014, compared to`765cr during 1QFY2013. Consequently,

its reported PAT decreased 57.0% yoy to `414cr. Sesa reported an exceptional

item relating to forex loss of `99cr in this quarter and hence adjusted PAT afterexceptional items declined by 57.8% yoy to `514cr. Considering the ongoing

process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, valuation of

Sterlite will mirror the valuation of the consolidated company, Sesa Sterlite. Wemaintain our Buy rating on the Sesa while we keep our target price under review.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,742 32.9 2,671 30.0 14.2 4.3 0.6 11.9 3.9

FY2015E 4,426 32.8 2,654 29.8 12.4 4.3 0.5 9.8 3.2

Jaiprakash Associates (CMP:`39 /TP: Under Review /Upside: -)

For 1QFY2014, Jaiprakash Associates posted a mixed set of numbers with decent

performance on the revenue front while adjusted earnings were lower than our

estimate owing to lower-than-expected operating performance and high interest

cost. On the top-line front, the company reported a revenue of `3,315cr for

1QFY2014, registering a growth of 10.2% yoy which is slightly higher than our

estimate of`3,289cr. The real estate and construction segment posted a growth of

175.2% and 2.9% on a yoy basis respectively; however, the cement segments

revenue declined by 1.5% on a yoy basis. The Blended EBITDA margin declined by

345bp yoy to 23.7% and was below our expectation of 26.2%. This was mainlydue to lower margins in the construction (19.1%) and cement segment (11.2%).

Interest cost stood at`590cr a jump of 26.8%/7.5% on a yoy/qoq basis and was

higher than our estimate of `560cr. Depreciation cost came in at `194cr in

1QFY2014, a jump of 10.2%/1.9% on a yoy/qoq basis. On the bottom-line front,

the company reported a PAT of `335cr, a growth of 140.9% yoy, owing to an

exceptional gain of ~`395cr which accrued on account of sale of equity shares.

Adjusting to this gain, the company has reported a loss of`61cr in 1QFY2014 vs

a profit of `138cr in 1QFY2013. This is mainly due to a lower-than-expected

operating performance and high interest cost. Currently the target price is underreview. However due to recent fall in the stock price we maintain our Buy rating onthe stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 13,211 23.6 196 0.9 1.5 45.1 0.7 10.6 2.5

FY2015E 14,150 24.2 329 1.5 2.4 26.8 0.7 10.0 2.4

Syndicate Bank - (CMP:`88/ TP: -/ Upside: -)Syndicate Bank reported weak operating performance for the quarter, as NII for

the bank remained largely flat. Non-interest income grew at a healthy pace of

25% yoy. Overall, pre-provisioning profit for the bank grew at moderate 12.8%yoy. The bank witnessed significant asset quality deterioration during the quarter,

as Gross NPA levels increased sequentially by 19.3%. The provisioning expenses

for the bank declined by 4.6% yoy and hence, the sequential increase in Net NPA

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levels was much higher at 56.4%. Overall, earnings at PBT level grew by 40% yoy,

however, as the bank had negative tax rate of 34.1% in 1QFY2013 as compared

to positive 1.5% in this quarter, the earnings grew at muted 2.7% yoy.At the CMP,

the stock is trading at 0.4x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutralrecommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 7,125 2.6 1,648 27.4 179.8 0.7 16.2 3.2 0.5

FY2015E 8,188 2.6 1,677 27.9 201.3 0.6 14.6 3.2 0.4

Madras Cements (CMP:`170/TP:-/Upside :-)

For 1QFY2014 Madras Cements posted a lower than expected performance on

the top-line, OPM as well as on the bottom-line front. The companys top-line de-

grew by 2.5% yoy to`960cr due to poor demand and weak cement prices. OPM

plunged by 1,060bp yoy to 20.4% on account of lower realizations and increase in

raw material and freight costs. Bottom-line fell by 44% yoy to`69cr. We maintaina neutral rating on the stockY/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*Mar (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)FY2014E 4,217 25.3 437 18.4 17.1 9.2 1.5 6.3 66

FY2015E 4,753 25.2 529 22.2 17.8 7.6 1.3 5.3

Indian Bank- (CMP:`90/ TP: - / Upside: -)Indian Bank reported weak operating performance for the quarter. NII for the

bank expectedly de-grew by 4.9% yoy to `1,097cr. Non-interest income grew

strongly by 137.8% yoy to `530cr, probably boosted by treasury gains. Overall,

pre-provisioning profit for the bank grew marginally by 2.3% yoy to `859cr. On

the asset quality front, the bank witnessed asset quality stress during the quarter,

as Gross and Net NPA levels increased sequentially by around 4.4%. Provisioning

expenses for the bank more than doubled on a yoy basis, and hence earnings

de-grew by 31.3% yoy. We believe that the asset quality stress for the banking

sector is unlikely to abate as quickly as was expected earlier. At CMP, the stock

trades at 0.3x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on thestock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 6,077 2.9 1,558 35.2 249.3 0.9 14.1 2.5 0.4

FY2015E 6,845 3.0 1,810 41.0 282.4 0.9 14.7 2.2 0.3

Allahabad Bank - (CMP:`72/ TP: -/ Upside: -)Allahabad Bank reported muted operating performance for the quarter, with

earnings de-growth of 19.6% yoy. NII for the bank remained largely flat yoy.

Boosted by treasury gains, non-interest income grew strongly by 61.9% yoy.

Overall, pre-provisioning profit for the bank grew at subdued 6.9% yoy. The bank

witnessed significant asset quality deterioration during the quarter, as Gross and

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Net NPA levels increased sequentially by around 19-20%. Consequently, the

provisioning expenses for the bank grew by 42.3% yoy and hence, the earnings

declined by 19.6% yoy.At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.3x FY2015E ABV. Wemaintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 6,705 2.5 1,379 27.6 192.6 0.6 12.5 2.7 0.4

FY2015E 7,535 2.5 1,658 33.2 224.0 0.7 13.6 2.3 0.3

Persistent Systems (CMP:`525/ TP: Under review)

Persistent Systems reported its 1QFY2014 results which were below our

expectations on the revenue and operating margin front but was better than

expectations on the bottomline front because of robust forex gain. The dollar

revenues came in at US$63mn, up 1.5% qoq, led by 4.5% qoq revenue growth

from IT services revenue which came in at US$53.5mn. IP led revenues, which has

been volatile for the company, declined by 13% qoq (24% yoy growth) to

US$9.5mn. The recently acquired HPCA business will now start contributing to the

companys topline due to some documentation delay and will boost IP-led

revenues further. In INR terms, revenues came in at `357cr, up 7.0%. The

companys EBITDA margin declined considerably by ~310bp qoq to 21.7%, due

to onsite wage hike of ~3.5% and visa costs. PAT stood at `57cr, up 10% qoq

aided by forex gain of `18cr as against `4cr in 4QFY2013. The management

remains confident of FY2014 with deal pipeline being strong and remains focused

on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfolio. We currently maintain

Neutral rating on the stock and would closely watch out for managementcommentary on operating margins as 2QFY2014 will have headwind of offshore

wage hike. We would revise our target price and rating post the earnings

conference call.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,505 25.9 214 53.6 17.7 9.8 1.7 3.8 1.0

FY2015E 1,677 26.2 239 59.7 16.7 8.8 1.5 3.0 0.8

Vijaya Bank- (CMP:`41/ TP: - / Upside: -)Vijaya bank reported healthy operating performance for the quarter. NII for the

bank grew by only 5.7% yoy to `481cr. Non-interest income grew strongly by

117.6% yoy to`267cr, probably boosted by treasury gains. Thus pre-provisioning

profit for the bank grew by 87.3% yoy. During the quarter, the bank continued to

witness asset quality stress, as Gross and Net NPA levels increased sequentially by

around 7-8%. Provisioning expense reduced by 31.8% yoy to `89cr, due to which

earnings grew strongly by 157.8% yoy to`287cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading

at 0.4x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABVMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 2,714 1.9 575 9.2 85.8 0.4 10.7 4.6 0.5

FY2015E 3,046 2.0 654 10.8 94.2 0.4 11.5 3.9 0.4

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Relaxo Footwear (CMP `791 / TP -`982 / Upside: 24%)

Relaxo reported strong set of numbers for 1QFY2014. The revenue for the quarter

witnessed robust growth of 25.8% yoy and stood at`312cr, 9.9% higher than our

expectation of`284cr. With the softening in rubber price in the quarter, the gross

margin expanded considerably by 397bp yoy and came in at 55.7%.Otherexpenses for the quarter increased by 40.3% yoy to `101cr. Subsequently,

operating margin expanded by 269bp yoy to 13.8%, against our estimate of

11.3%. Tax for the quarter stood at `11cr (32.7% of PBT). As a result, the net

profit for the quarter grew by whooping 73.3% yoy to `22cr, 48.7% higher than

our estimate of`15cr.

We remain positive on the company with the growth triggers in place, which

includes 1) capacity expansion plan, 2) store expansion, 3) improved sales mix

and 4) brand revamping. At`791, the stock is trading at 9.7x FY2015E earnings.

We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an upward revision in target price at`982, based on a target PE of 12x for FY2015E.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/salesMar (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)FY2014E 1,196 12.3 70 58.3 28.2 13.2 3.3 7.5 0.9

FY2015E 1,401 13.4 98 81.9 29.8 9.4 2.5 5.6 0.8

Subros (CMP:`20/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)Subros reported poor results for 1QFY2014, which were lower than our

expectations and impacted due to the continued slowdown in the automotive

sector. Top-line for the quarter registered a decline of 12.1% yoy to `280cr onaccount of an 8.1% yoy decline in volumes and 3.8% yoy decline in net average

realization. While, the volume decline was broadly in-line with the decline in the

domestic passenger vehicle industry; net average realization was impacted due to

the adverse product-mix. On the operating front, EBITDA margin improved to

10.5% (up 150bp yoy) driven by easing of commodity prices and also due to

decline in other expenditure. Net profit stood at `3cr as against `2.75cr in

1QFY2013. The stock rating is currently under review. We would revise our targetprice and rating post our interaction with the management.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,426 10.0 29 4.9 10.0 4.1 0.4 3.5 0.3

FY2015E 1,624 9.9 41 6.8 12.7 2.9 0.4 2.9 0.3

Hitachi Home (CMP:`115/ TP:`191/ Upside: 66.3%)

For 1QFY2014, Hitachi Home reported mixed set of numbers. Top line grew by

25.6% yoy to `472cr, 9.0% higher than our estimate of `433cr. On operational

front, EBITDA grew by 53.9% yoy to `39.4cr, 12.5% lower than our estimate of

`45cr. The EBITDA margins expanded by 154bp to 8.3% from 6.8% in same

quarter previous year owing to reduced other expenses as a percentage of total

income from 23.1% in 1QFY2013 to 20.5% in 1QFY2014. PAT grew by 4.6% yoy

to`14cr; however it was 43.9% lower than the estimate due to forex loss of `10cr .

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We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `191 based on atarget PE of 10x for FY2015E.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,080 8.9 50 18.3 19.2 6.4 1.1 4.6 0.4FY2015E 1,199 9.1 52 19.1 17.0 6.1 1.0 3.9 0.4

Result Preview

NTPC (CMP:`142/TP:`163 /Upside:14.7%)

NTPC is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results. The company is expected to

post 3.5% yoy growth in its top-line to`16,519cr. On the operating front, OPM is

likely to expand by 135bp yoy to 24.1% while net profit is expected to come in flat

yoy to `2,516cr. NTPC is currently trading at relatively cheap valuations of 1.2x

2015E BV. We maintain Accumulate rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2013E 76,734 24.5 11,039 13.4 12.8 10.6 1.3 9.1 2.2

FY2014E 86,680 24.3 11,933 14.5 12.7 9.8 1.2 8.7 2.1

DRL (CMP:`2,218/ TP: -2,535/ Upside: -14%)

DRL is expected to post a top-line growth of 31.4% to`3,340cr, due to impact of a

higher base of the corresponding period of the previous year. The company is

expected to see strong traction in its Indian and Russian formulation businesses as

well. The company is expected to post an OPM of 21.1%, down from 21.9% in

1QFY2013. The company is expected to post a net profit of `453cr, a growth of

34.8% yoy. We maintain our accumulate on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 13,377 20.4 1,903 112.3 23.5 19.8 3.9 13.8 2.8

FY2015E 15,350 20.1 2,149 126.8 21.8 17.5 3.2 12.1 2.4

Shree Cement (CMP: `4,365/TP:-/Upside :-)

Shree Cement is scheduled to declare its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the

top-line to grow by 2.6% yoy to `1,494cr. The OPM is expected to decline by

584bp yoy to 27.1%. Bottom-line is expected to decline by 35.1% yoy to `228cr.

We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/tonne*June (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (US $)FY2014E 6,607 27.5 1,124 323 27.8 13.5 3.4 6.0 132

FY2015E 7,520 26.7 1,304 374 25.6 11.7 2.7 4.7

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IPCA Labs (CMP:`650/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

We estimate Ipca Laboratories' top-line to grow by 28.6% to `811cr for

1QFY2014. The OPM is expected to dip by 100bp yoy to end at 20.8%. The

adjusted net profit is expected to de-grow by 5.1% yoy, on back of dip in OPM. Wemaintain neutral on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 3,243 20.5 455 36.0 26.0 17.9 3.9 12.1 2.5

FY2015E 3,826 21.5 560 44.4 25.4 14.5 3.6 9.6 2.1

PVR (CMP:`342/TP: -/Upside: - %)

For 1QFY2014, we expect PVR to report 65% yoy growth in top-line to `279cr,

due to consolidation of cinemaxs financials and good performance in movie

exhibition business (with many successful releases during the quarter). However,

the companys EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 220bp yoy to 17.8%. Net

profit is expected to come in at`8cr on account of margin contraction and higher

interest burden. At the current market price, PVR is trading at 15.9x FY2015E

consolidated EPS of `21.5. We believe the stock is fairly valued and hence,maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 1,359 17.3 68 17.2 10.6 19.9 2.0 6.2 0.9

FY2015E 1,540 17.4 85 21.5 12.3 15.9 1.8 5.4 0.8

Indoco Remedies (CMP:`63/ TP: -78/ Upside: -23.8%)

Indoco Remedies is expected to report top-line growth of 20.8% to `183cr.The

OPM is expected to expand by 10bps yoy to 13.8%.As a result, net profit is

expected to increase by 39.1% yoy to`14.4cr. We maintain our buy with a targetprice of `78.Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)FY2014E 761 15.3 56 6.1 12.9 10.2 1.3 6.3 1.0

FY2015E 922 15.3 72 7.8 14.7 8.0 1.1 5.4 0.8

Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate

Dr. Reddy Laboratories Consolidated (30/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 3,148 2,541 23.9 3,340 (5.7)

Net profit 438 336 30.4 571 (23.3)

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Jindal Steel & Power Consolidated (30/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 4,893 4,680 4.5 5,583 (12.4)

EBITDA 1,521 1,593 (4.5) 1,589 (4.3)

EBITDA margin (%) 31.1 34.0 28.5

Net profit 704 385 82.7 760 (7.4)

NTPC (30/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 16,706 15,960 4.7 16,462 1.5

EBITDA 4,208 3,837 9.7 4,794 (12.2)

EBITDA margin (%) 25.2 24.0 29.1

Net profit 2,539 2,499 1.6 4,382 (42.1)

Reliance Infrastructure (30/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 3,331 1,638 103.3 3,853 (13.6)

EBITDA 432 460 (6.0) 513 (15.7)

EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 28.1 13.3

Net profit 310 327 (5.3) 599 (48.3)

Reliance Power Consolidated (30/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,208 1,137 6.2 1,248 (3.2)

EBITDA 472 365 29.3 463 1.9

EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 32.1 37.1Net profit 228 240 (4.8) 266 (14.3)

Bharti Airtel Consolidated (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 21,264 19,350 9.9 20,460 3.9

EBITDA 6,700 6,009 11.5 6,501 3.1

EBITDA margin (%) 31.5 31.1 31.8

Net profit 720 762 (5.5) 509 41.5

HCL Tech Consolidated (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13E 4QFY12 y-o-y (%) 3QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,772 5,919 14.4 6,451 5.0

EBITDA 1,560 1,301 19.9 1,439 8.4

EBITDA margin (%) 23.0 22.0 22.3

Net profit 1,059 854 24.0 1,044 1.5

ICICI Bank (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 2,223 1,815 22.5 2,304 (3.5)

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JSW Steel Consolidated (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 10,525 9,902 6.3 9,898 6.3

EBITDA 1,654 1,909 (13.3) 1,733 (4.6)

EBITDA margin (%) 15.7 19.3 17.5

Net profit 311 50 522.4 296 5.2

NHPC (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,565 1,399 11.9 1,038 50.8

EBITDA 1,038 904 14.8 602 72.3

EBITDA margin (%) 66.3 3.0 58.0

Net profit 649 670 (3.1) 583 11.2

United Spirits (31/07/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,333 2,057 13.4 2,058 13.4

EBITDA 365 351 4.1 236 54.6

EBITDA margin (%) 15.6 17.0 11.5

Net profit 140 145 (3.2) 56 150.7

Adani Ports & SEZ (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 863 774 11.5 772 11.8

EBITDA 608 632 (3.8) 640 (5.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 70.5 81.7 83.0Net profit 429 418 2.6 491 (12.5)

Adani Power (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,579 1,463 76.3 1,746 47.7

EBITDA 472(120)

(494.2) 336 40.6

EBITDA margin (%) 18.3 -8.2 19.2

Net profit(196) (793)

(75.3)(427)

(54.2)

Bank of Baroda (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,082 1,139 (5.0) 1,029 5.1

Glenmark Pharma Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,270 1,040 22.0 1,336 (4.9)

EBITDA 252 165 52.8 255 (1.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 19.9 15.9 19.1

Net profit 150 78 91.6 167 (10.1)

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Idea Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 6,350 5,502 15.4 6,027 5.4

EBITDA 1,790 1,436 24.7 1,673 7.0

EBITDA margin (%) 28.2 26.1 27.8

Net profit 395 234 68.6 308 28.0

Cummins India (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,264 1,241 1.8 1,128 12.0

EBITDA 213 232 (8.6) 194 9.6

EBITDA margin (%) 16.8 18.7 17.2

Net profit 173 181 (4.2) 189 (8.2)

Power Grid Corporation (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 1,077 870 23.8 1,109 (2.9)

Reliance Communication Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,736 4,878 17.6 4,985 15.1

EBITDA 1,884 1,595 18.1 1,392 35.3

EBITDA margin (%) 32.8 32.7 27.9

Net profit 231 162 42.8 303 (23.7)

Tata Global Beverage Consolidated (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 1,866 1,715 8.8 1,811 3.1

EBITDA 219 181 21.0 223 (2.1)

EBITDA margin (%) 11.7 10.5 12.3

Net profit 105 78 34.9 96 9.4

Titan Industries (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net sales 2,727 2,206 23.6 2,593 5.1

EBITDA 271 212 27.8 267 1.8

EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 9.6 10.3

Net profit 188 156 20.6 185 1.7

Union Bank of India (01/08/2013)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14E 1QFY13 y-o-y (%) 4QFY13 q-o-q (%)Net profit 636 512 24.4 789 (19.4)

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Economic and Political News

Maharashtra plans to improve supply chain agricultural produce Zero import duty on natural gas, LNG imports Proposal for setting up ICD sent to Finance Ministry

Corporate News

RPower commissions 45-MW wind project in Maharashtra TCS to modernise, automate taxation system in Zambia Sundaram Brakes suspends operations in one of its plants Punjab Markfed to launch mineral water

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 30-07-2013

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Date Company

July 30, 2013 NTPC, Jindal Steel, Dr Reddy's, Reliance Power, Petronet LNG, Reliance Infra., Aventis, Ipca labs, Indoco Remedies

July 31, 2013Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, NHPC, HCL Tech, JSW Steel , United Spirits, Motherson Sumi, Andhra Bank, JagranPrakashan, Dishman Pharma, HSIL

August 01, 2013J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, Idea Cellular, Mundra Port, Bank of Baroda, Titan Inds., Adani Power, Rcom, UnionBank, Cummins India, GlaxoSmith Con, Glenmark Pharma., Tata Global, Tree House

August 02, 2013 Siemens, Power Fin.Corpn., Sun TV Network, Suzlon Energy, Bank of Maharashtra

August 03, 2013 Coal India, BHEL, Grasim Inds, Canara Bank, Divi's Lab., Oriental Bank, PTC India, Godawari Ispat

August 04, 2013

August 05, 2013 Tata Chemicals, LMW, GIPCL, SpiceJet

August 06, 2013 Tata Power Co., Bosch India, Crompton Greaves, Unitech

August 07, 2013 Tata Motors, Ranbaxy, Lupin, GSK Pharma, Cadila Healthcare, Gujarat Gas, Apollo Tyres, Nagarjuna Const.

August 08, 2013 NMDC, Adani Enterp., Rural Elec.Corp., Bharat Forge, IRB Infra, ITNL, Page Industries, ITD Cementation

August 09, 2013 Sun Pharma, ABB, Aurobindo Pharma, TVS Motor

August 10, 2013

August 11, 2013

August 12, 2013 ONGC, HPCL, Marico, Indraprasth Gas, Britannia, India Cements, Jyothy Laboratories

August 13, 2013 IOC, M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, BPCL, GMR Infra.

August 14, 2013 Amara Raja Batteries

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

July 30, 2013 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jul F (17.40) (17.40)

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jul 30 7.25 7.25

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jul 30 4.00 4.00

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jul 30 6.25 6.25

7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jul 81.40 81.30

July 31, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jul (12.00) --

6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.80 1.00

11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jul 31 0.25 0.25

August 1, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jul 27 343.00 345.00

1:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul F 50.30 50.30

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.10 49.80

2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 52.50 52.80

4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 1 0.50 0.50

5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 1 0.50 0.50

August 2, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 195.00 185.00

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jul 7.60 7.50

August 5, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jul F 52.50 --

August 6, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (2.30) --

August 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jul (3.10) --

August 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jul 2.70 --

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 8.90 --

August 12, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jul (0.37) --

4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jul (4.60) --

5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jun (1.60) --


July 30, 2013

Market Outlook

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 30-07-2013

14/22



Macro watch

Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G D P trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4:M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion

Exhibit 5:Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends


Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

9.3

7.7

11.4

9.5

8.69.2

9.9

7.5

6.56.0

5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%)

(2.0)

(0.1)

2.0

(0.7)

8.4

(1.0) (0.6)

2.5

0.6

3.4

1.9

(1.6)(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

(%)

8.0 8.17.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

5.7

4.8 4.7 4.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(15.0)

0.0

15.0

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oc-1

2

No-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oc-12

No-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

Ma-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 30-07-2013

15/22

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 150 - 2,922 1,674 1,923 13.7 13.7 6.8 7.6 22.1 19.8 4.2 3.7 20.0 19.6 1.9 1.7

United Phosphorus Buy 137 225 6,070 10,091 11,302 16.5 16.5 19.2 22.5 7.1 6.1 1.1 1.0 17.0 17.2 0.7 0.6

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 248 285 4,228 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.4 12.2 3.2 2.6 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.0

Apollo Tyres Neutral 67 - 3,397 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 5.3 4.5 0.9 0.7 17.5 17.3 0.4 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 14 22 3,805 13,450 15,853 6.5 8.5 0.4 1.9 37.4 7.7 1.2 1.1 2.3 11.0 0.4 0.3

Automotive Axle# Neutral 218 - 329 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 12.6 8.0 1.2 1.1 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,996 2,102 57,752 21,696 25,239 19.2 19.3 119.3 140.2 16.7 14.2 5.9 4.7 38.9 36.6 2.2 1.9

Bharat Forge Neutral 204 - 4,744 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 14.0 11.8 1.8 1.6 13.6 14.7 0.9 0.8

Bosch India* Neutral 8,801 - 27,634 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 23.6 20.1 4.2 3.6 18.0 17.9 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 124 170 423 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 3.0 2.6 0.5 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 130 148 11,046 6,899 7 ,873 14.7 14.7 7.9 9.0 16.4 14.4 2.8 2.4 18.3 18.0 1.3 1.1

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,390 - 2,310 1,336 1,572 13.8 16.0 75.6 102.4 18.4 13.6 2.3 2.0 13.4 15.8 1.5 1.2

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,874 2,048 37,426 25,562 28,297 14.5 14.4 111.2 146.3 16.9 12.8 6.2 4.8 40.1 42.1 1.3 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 99 154 408 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 898 1,103 55,286 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 14.7 12.8 3.1 2.6 22.7 21.9 1.0 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,350 1,648 40,787 45,862 52,647 11.2 11.1 94.6 109.9 14.3 12.3 1.9 1.7 14.4 14.6 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Accumulate 204 222 11,975 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 16.3 13.8 4.0 3.2 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 20 27 120 1,426 1,624 10.0 9.9 4.9 6.8 4.1 2.9 0.4 0.4 10.0 12.7 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Buy 296 347 79,758 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 8.2 7.1 1.8 1.5 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 31 35 1,451 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 6.1 5.3 1.0 0.9 18.1 18.5 0.1 0.1

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 524 461 11,097 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 45.5 30.9 4.1 4.0 9.3 13.1 1.3 1.2BGR Energy Buy 90 140 647 3,756 4,569 11.4 9.7 21.7 24.1 4.1 3.7 0.5 0.5 22.3 20.3 0.5 0.4

BHEL Neutral 157 - 38,415 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 7.6 9.8 1.7 1.5 23.5 16.1 0.8 0.8

Blue Star Buy 156 208 1,403 2,941 3,099 3.4 4.2 6.0 9.3 26.1 16.8 3.2 2.8 12.9 18.0 0.6 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 89 117 5,684 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 13.4 10.0 1.5 1.3 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

Jyoti Structures Neutral 17 - 142 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 2.4 1.7 0.5 0.4 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 30 49 767 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 4.9 3.5 0.6 0.5 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3

Thermax Neutral 594 - 7,079 5,832 6,397 9.1 9.6 28.8 32.9 20.6 18.1 3.4 2.9 17.2 17.3 1.2 1.1

Cement

ACC Accumulate 1,198 1,361 22,498 11,820 13,254 19.3 20.9 74.9 93.1 16.0 12.9 2.8 2.5 18.1 20.3 1.6 1.4


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

July 30, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 30-07-2013

16/22



Cement

Ambuja Cements Neutral 171 - 26,478 10,171 11,762 23.5 24.6 10.2 12.2 16.8 14.1 2.8 2.5 17.1 18.7 2.1 1.7

India Cements Neutral 52 - 1,607 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 5.9 4.8 0.4 0.4 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 68 100 803 2,256 2,709 20.2 22.2 17.0 20.4 4.0 3.4 0.6 0.5 14.8 15.4 0.4 0.9

Madras Cements Neutral 170 - 4,034 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 9.2 7.5 1.5 1.3 17.2 18.2 1.3 1.0

Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,365 - 15,205 6,607 7,520 27.5 26.7 322.8 374.3 13.5 11.7 3.4 2.7 27.8 25.6 1.7 1.3

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,880 - 51,548 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.7 15.7 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.1

ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 53 84 844 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 6.0 7.4 8.9 7.2 0.8 0.8 10.5 10.8 1.8 1.8

Consolidated Co Neutral 8 - 151 1,715 1,824 2.4 6.2 (2.9) (0.4) (2.8) (22.6) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

IRB Infra Buy 80 157 2,659 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 5.1 4.8 0.7 0.7 15.2 14.5 3.1 3.4

ITNL Buy 131 230 2,547 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 4.4 4.1 0.6 0.6 14.9 14.2 2.4 2.5

IVRCL Infra Buy 12 29 382 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 8.6 6.8 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 40 57 8,832 13,211 14,150 23.6 24.2 1.9 2.5 20.9 15.8 0.7 0.6 3.1 4.0 2.5 2.4

Larsen & Toubro Buy 841 1,128 77,815 68,946 78,040 10.0 10.0 49.0 55.2 17.2 15.2 2.5 2.2 14.9 15.3 1.3 1.1

Nagarjuna Const. Buy 23 42 585 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 8.5 6.3 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.4

Punj Lloyd Neutral 27 - 900 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 53.4 29.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 78 139 1,171 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 13.2 11.7 1.3 1.2 10.2 10.5 0.8 0.7

Simplex Infra Buy 67 131 331 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 5.6 3.6 0.3 0.2 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

Unity Infra Buy 22 41 160 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.0 1.9 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 72 - 3,595 6,705 7,535 2.5 2.5 27.6 33.2 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.3 12.5 13.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 71 - 3,984 5,180 5,815 2.7 2.7 19.0 22.9 3.7 3.1 0.5 0.4 12.0 13.2 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,100 1,348 51,579 19,280 22,886 3.3 3.3 130.7 157.1 8.4 7.0 1.4 1.2 17.3 18.1 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 566 - 23,837 16,287 18,707 2.2 2.3 120.6 144.6 4.7 3.9 0.7 0.6 15.0 16.0 - -

Bank of India Neutral 180 - 10,741 14,482 16,069 2.3 2.2 55.0 62.2 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.4 13.7 13.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 45 - 2,993 4 ,291 4 ,724 3.0 3.0 12.1 12.9 3.8 3.5 0.6 0.5 16.2 15.3 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 270 - 11,965 12,045 13,495 2.1 2.2 76.7 86.4 3.5 3.1 0.5 0.5 14.1 14.2 - -

Central Bank Neutral 56 - 5,834 8,196 9,202 2.4 2.4 6.1 15.9 9.2 3.5 0.7 0.6 5.2 12.8 - -

Corporation Bank Neutral 298 - 4,556 5,554 6,156 2.0 2.0 94.9 104.9 3.1 2.8 0.4 0.4 14.3 14.2 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 58 - 2,027 3,255 3,623 2.3 2.4 22.0 24.9 2.6 2.3 0.4 0.3 14.7 14.7 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 340 - 5,811 2,798 3,250 3.0 3.0 38.1 51.9 8.9 6.6 0.9 0.8 9.8 12.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

July 30, 2013

7/27/2019 Market Outlook, 30-07-2013

17/22



Financials

HDFC Accumulate 807 867 125,355 8,679 10,350 3.6 3.6 37.5 44.7 21.5 18.1 4.5 4.0 30.1 30.7 - -

HDFC Bank Buy 634 745 151,326 27,392 33,264 4.6 4.6 36.3 45.1 17.5 14.1 3.5 3.0 21.9 22.8 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 930 1,131 107,328 26,119 30,474 3.1 3.2 86.2 99.5 10.8 9.3 1.5 1.3 15.7 16.2 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 66 - 8,843 9,518 10,468 2.0 2.0 15.5 22.1 4.3 3.0 0.4 0.4 10.2 13.3 - -

Indian Bank Neutral 90 - 3,846 6,077 6,845 2.9 3.0 35.2 41.0 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.3 14.1 14.8 - -

IOB Neutral 44 - 4,057 7,709 8,645 2.2 2.3 8.2 17.1 5.3 2.6 0.4 0.3 6.0 11.7 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,111 - 5,386 3,101 3,427 3.6 3.6 215.5 210.3 5.2 5.3 1.0 0.8 19.9 16.9 - -LIC Housing Finance Neutral 182 - 9,200 2,180 2,732 2.4 2.5 26.3 32.1 6.9 5.7 1.3 1.1 19.0 19.9 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 153 - 4,458 6,790 7,676 2.6 2.7 55.7 62.3 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.3 12.8 12.9 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 584 - 20,645 20,766 23,515 3.4 3.4 135.0 164.8 4.3 3.5 0.7 0.6 14.4 15.7 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 22 - 2,955 1,800 2,023 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 5.9 5.3 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.2 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 1,744 1,979 119,299 66,417 76,734 3.0 3.0 227.4 284.8 7.7 6.1 1.1 1.0 15.4 17.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Neutral 88 - 5,294 7,125 8,188 2.6 2.6 27.4 27.9 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.4 16.2 14.6 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 61 - 4,614 6,736 6,979 2.7 2.6 15.3 15.7 4.0 3.9 0.7 0.6 14.8 13.6 - -

Union Bank Neutral 131 - 7,800 11,101 12,543 2.6 2.6 39.3 47.4 3.3 2.8 0.5 0.4 14.1 15.2 - -

United Bank Neutral 41 - 1,519 3,386 3,884 2.3 2.5 12.4 20.0 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.3 10.0 14.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 41 - 2,017 2,714 3,046 1.9 2.0 9.2 10.8 4.4 3.8 0.5 0.4 10.7 11.5 - -

Yes Bank Neutral 363 - 13,069 4,417 5,486 2.7 2.8 42.9 49.5 8.5 7.3 1.8 1.5 23.9 22.8 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 5,115 - 49,066 12,332 14,524 16.3 16.1 138.9 160.4 36.8 31.9 11.7 9.3 35.2 32.5 3.9 3.3

Britannia Neutral 715 - 8,557 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 21.3 25.5 33.6 28.1 10.9 8.8 35.7 34.6 1.3 1.1

Colgate Neutral 1,408 - 19,146 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 31.9 27.2 31.0 22.6 108.6 96.2 5.2 4.4

Dabur India Neutral 169 - 29,511 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 31.5 26.9 12.3 9.5 41.5 40.1 4.1 3.5

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,898 - 20,598 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 40.1 33.0 12.5 10.0 34.1 33.7 5.2 4.4

Godrej Consumer Neutral 851 - 28,961 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 33.9 28.7 7.3 6.1 24.9 24.2 3.9 3.3

HUL Neutral 639 - 138,117 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 37.4 34.7 35.9 26.0 113.4 87.0 4.6 4.0

ITC Neutral 358 - 283,025 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 31.8 26.8 10.5 8.5 36.1 34.9 7.9 6.7

Marico Neutral 216 - 13,954 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 29.8 25.0 5.8 4.8 21.4 21.0 2.7 2.3

Nestle* Neutral 5,384 - 51,905 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 42.2 34.9 21.1 15.3 57.7 50.7 5.5 4.7

Tata Global Neutral 159 - 9,857 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 20.4 18.6 2.4 2.3 9.5 9.7 1.2 1.1


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IT

HCL Tech^ Neutral 897 - 62,527 29,424 32,837 22.6 22.0 59.5 63.3 15.1 14.2 3.7 3.0 24.6 21.7 1.9 1.7

Hexaware* Accumulate 116 123 3,457 2,213 2,479 21.5 20.5 12.1 12.9 9.5 9.0 2.4 2.1 25.4 23.5 1.4 1.2

Infosys Neutral 2,921 - 167,720 47,001 51,196 26.2 26.4 171.3 189.4 17.1 15.4 3.5 3.0 20.4 19.3 2.9 2.6

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 179 190 1,999 2,052 2,263 17.2 17.6 20.7 22.5 8.7 8.0 1.3 1.1 14.9 14.0 0.6 0.5

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 131 144 2,524 2,614 2,923 17.2 16.8 13.2 14.4 9.9 9.1 1.8 1.5 18.5 16.7 0.9 0.7

Mindtree Accumulate 961 1,050 3,996 2,768 3,006 19.7 19.9 103.1 105.3 9.3 9.1 2.3 1.8 24.8 20.3 1.1 0.9

Mphasis& Neutral 388 - 8,145 6,372 6,852 18.0 18.2 38.0 43.5 10.2 8.9 1.5 1.3 14.3 14.2 0.8 0.6NIIT Neutral 16 - 268 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 3.8 3.0 0.4 0.4 10.3 12.0 - -

Persistent Accumulate 525 595 2,101 1,505 1,677 25.9 26.2 53.6 59.7 9.8 8.8 1.7 1.5 17.7 16.7 1.0 0.8

TCS Buy 1,780 2,060 348,327 79,005 91,576 29.7 30.0 88.6 103.1 20.1 17.3 6.3 5.0 31.5 29.2 4.2 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,248 1,390 28,989 8,102 8,709 19.7 19.2 107.5 117.0 11.6 10.7 2.5 2.0 21.2 18.9 3.6 3.2

Wipro Accumulate 409 435 100,673 41,659 45,137 21.2 21.4 27.7 29.9 14.8 13.7 3.0 2.6 20.5 19.0 1.9 1.6

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 266 302 4,878 1,783 1,968 25.2 26.8 14.6 17.2 18.3 15.4 4.7 4.1 23.9 24.2 2.6 2.3

HT Media Buy 98 117 2,314 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.3 11.9 10.6 1.5 1.3 11.6 11.6 0.7 0.6

Jagran Prakashan Buy 91 107 3,030 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.2 11.8 2.9 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7

PVR Neutral 342 - 1,359 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 19.9 15.9 2.0 1.8 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 378 - 14,894 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 18.9 16.2 4.7 4.1 26.4 27.3 6.2 5.4

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 460 - 10,425 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.3 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

Coal India Buy 273 345 172,689 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 9.6 8.9 2.7 2.3 37.6 36.2 1.6 1.4

Electrosteel Castings Buy 11 18 346 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 8.4 4.1 0.1 - 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1

GMDC Buy 95 155 3,031 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 4.4 3.8 1.0 0.8 25.1 23.8 1.1 0.7Hind. Zinc Buy 102 140 43,098 12,389 13,093 48.5 51.7 15.2 17.0 6.7 6.0 1.2 1.0 18.5 18.0 1.3 0.9

Hindalco Neutral 91 - 17,346 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 6.8 6.0 0.5 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 553 - 13,371 47,613 48,385 17.4 18.8 81.8 109.6 6.8 5.1 0.7 0.6 11.1 13.4 0.6 0.5

MOIL Buy 195 248 3,279 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.3 6.8 1.1 0.9 15.4 14.7 0.9 0.6

Monnet Ispat Buy 110 193 701 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.2 8.3 9.9 1.3 1.0

Nalco Neutral 28 - 7,268 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 11.1 10.8 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.4

NMDC Buy 103 140 40,896 10,610 11,400 66.3 64.2 15.6 16.1 6.6 6.4 1.3 1.2 21.3 19.9 1.7 1.6

SAIL Neutral 43 - 17,904 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 8.3 6.1 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.8 0.7 0.6


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Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Buy 126 166 10,907 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 4.2 4.2 0.6 0.5 14.3 12.5 3.7 3.0

Sterlite Inds Buy 74 97 24,802 44,493 45,599 22.4 23.9 16.8 19.2 4.4 3.8 0.4 0.4 10.5 10.9 0.5 0.4

Tata Steel Buy 216 378 20,949 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 7.0 4.5 0.6 0.6 9.6 13.4 0.5 0.5

Sarda Buy 90 153 324 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5

Prakash Industries Buy 30 40 405 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 70 102 229 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 298 364 56,889 18,403 17,925 71.9 62.1 62.1 57.4 4.8 5.2 1.0 0.9 22.6 17.8 1.9 1.6

GAIL Neutral 317 - 40,230 49,700 48,822 16.0 16.6 32.9 33.4 9.6 9.5 1.5 1.3 15.9 14.4 0.3 0.2

ONGC Buy 298 387 254,654 170,063 198,461 36.3 38.3 34.7 41.9 8.6 7.1 1.5 1.3 18.3 19.5 1.2 0.9

Reliance Industries Neutral 886 - 286,009 397,546 421,695 8.9 8.7 72.3 76.8 12.3 11.5 1.3 1.2 12.3 11.8 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 185 - 2,378 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 7.8 7.2 2.2 1.9 29.6 28.2 0.5 0.5

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 280 - 3,914 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.5 9.2 2.2 1.8 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

Petronet LNG Buy 119 167 8,891 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 7.9 7.1 1.7 1.4 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 51 - 2,884 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.1 4.5 0.8 0.7 17.3 16.8 - -

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 161 - 3,030 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 15.0 11.6 4.7 3.5 35.0 34.7 1.8 1.5

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 178 271 5,172 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.3 8.6 1.6 1.4 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0

Aventis* Neutral 2,420 - 5,573 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 26.2 24.4 3.7 3.7 15.7 14.8 2.9 2.4

Cadila Healthcare Buy 730 929 14,947 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 19.1 15.7 4.1 3.4 23.5 23.5 2.4 2.0

Cipla Buy 412 477 33,068 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 19.6 17.3 3.1 2.7 17.2 16.8 3.3 2.8

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 2,218 2,535 37,699 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 19.8 17.5 4.2 3.5 23.5 21.8 2.9 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 48 168 384 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.3 11.0 11.2 0.9 0.7

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,438 - 20,649 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 31.8 29.3 9.5 8.7 31.1 31.0 6.4 5.7

Indoco Remedies Buy 63 78 577 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 10.3 8.0 1.3 1.1 12.9 14.7 1.0 0.8

Ipca labs Neutral 647 - 8,160 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 18.0 14.6 4.2 3.3 26.0 25.4 2.7 2.2

Lupin Neutral 857 - 38,355 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 24.6 20.5 5.8 4.6 26.2 24.8 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Buy 298 384 12,622 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 17.1 13.3 2.7 2.4 17.0 19.1 1.1 0.9

Sun Pharma Neutral 570 - 117,771 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 17.3 14.3 3.5 2.9 22.0 22.0 8.2 6.8

Power

GIPCL Buy 63 78 951 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.6 4.3 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.5

NTPC Accumulate 142 163 117,003 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 10.6 9.8 1.3 1.2 12.8 12.7 2.2 2.1


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Real Estate

DLF Buy 169 236 30,078 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 29.6 25.1 1.1 1.0 3.7 4.1 5.7 4.8

MLIFE Accumulate 453 483 1,849 888 1,002 27.0 29.9 33.9 42.1 13.4 10.8 1.3 1.2 9.9 11.2 2.7 2.4

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 334 - 133,513 85,489 94,229 31.9 31.9 10.2 14.6 32.7 22.8 2.4 2.2 7.2 9.4 2.2 1.9

Idea Cellular Neutral 160 - 52,900 25,640 28,459 26.9 27.2 4.0 4.9 39.8 32.3 3.4 3.0 8.4 9.4 2.5 2.2

Rcom Neutral 132 - 27,183 22,751 24,628 30.9 31.3 3.4 5.3 38.4 25.0 0.8 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.8 2.4

OthersAbbott India* Buy 1,398 1,659 2,970 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 19.6 16.9 3.9 3.4 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.0

Bajaj Electricals Buy 174 237 1,733 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.9 8.8 2.2 1.8 13.5 20.3 0.5 0.4

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 505 613 639 631 797 14.5 13.7 42.6 51.1 11.9 9.9 2.8 2.3 26.5 25.3 1.0 0.8

Cravatex Buy 272 459 70 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 10.0 7.1 1.6 1.3 15.7 18.5 0.4 0.4

Finolex Cables Buy 57 68 879 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.7 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.3 13.8 0.3 0.2

Force Motors Buy 266 349 347 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 9.5 6.1 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India* Accumulate 312 345 720 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.7 8.4 1.8 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3

Hitachi Buy 115 177 313 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 8.3 6.5 1.2 1.0 15.0 16.7 0.3 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,397 - 2,119 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 111.1 130.9 21.6 18.3 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.9 1.1 0.9

IFB Agro Buy 136 198 123 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 4.7 3.5 0.7 0.6 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

ITD Cementation Buy 165 234 190 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.7 6.1 0.5 0.4 5.4 7.1 0.5 0.5

Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 175 199 2,913 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 31.8 19.4 3.7 3.3 12.1 17.7 2.7 2.1

MRF Buy 13,647 16,218 5,788 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0 7.6 7.6 1.6 1.3 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

Page Industries Neutral 4,464 - 4,979 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 35.8 29.0 17.7 13.1 56.3 51.8 4.8 4.0

Relaxo Footwears Buy 791 982 950 1,196 1,401 12.3 13.4 58.3 81.9 13.6 9.7 3.4 2.5 28.2 29.8 1.0 0.8

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 232 311 217 1,158 1,322 10.8 11.2 62.1 77.8 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.5 17.2 18.4 0.4 0.4Styrolution ABS India* Buy 402 492 707 1,007 1,108 8.4 8.7 30.3 35.1 13.3 11.4 1.5 1.3 11.7 12.2 0.7 0.6

TAJ GVK Buy 58 108 362 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.3 6.4 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.5 1.3

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 252 371 387 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 3.9 3.6 0.5 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

TTK Healthcare Buy 535 632 415 416 481 4.5 6.1 16.2 25.3 33.0 21.1 4.1 3.6 12.6 18.1 0.9 0.8

Tree House Neutral 286 - 1,030 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 23.1 18.3 2.7 2.4 11.8 13.1 6.9 5.3

TVS Srichakra Buy 175 230 134 1,591 1,720 6.1 6.4 24.5 38.3 7.2 4.6 0.8 0.7 10.9 15.9 0.3 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 2,531 - 36,783 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 60.1 37.4 4.2 3.8 9.1 10.7 3.3 2.9

Vesuvius India* Buy 375 439 762 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.5 10.3 1.9 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.1 0.9


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Others

HSIL Buy 83 117 551 2,042 2,363 14.6 14.8 12.3 16.5 6.8 5.1 0.5 0.5 7.6 9.4 0.7 0.6

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 29, 2013


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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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market outlook, 30-07-2013

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