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  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 130712

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    Market OutlookJuly 13, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Market OutlookJuly 13, 2012

    Dealers DiaryThe Indian markets are expected to open flattish mirroring the SGX Nifty and Asian

    stocks which are trading close to their opening levels. Asian stocks rose, with the

    benchmark index poised to end its six days of losses after data showed Chinas

    economy grew 7.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

    The US economic jobless claims data release showed that jobless claims fell to

    350,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 376,000. The drop surprised

    economists, who had expected jobless claims to edge up to 375,000 from the

    374,000 originally reported for the previous week. However, traders largely

    shrugged off this report from the Labor Department as concerns about the outlook

    for the economy continued to weigh on the markets. The US stock markets

    eventually ended in the red.

    Indian shares tumbled on Thursday, extending the previous session's losses, as

    Infosys' first-quarter earnings and lower FY13 guidance damped investor mood.

    Negative global cues also weighed on investor sentiment, overshadowing data thatshowed India's industrial output rebounded in May from a contraction

    Markets TodayThe trend deciding level for the day is 17,248 / 5,238 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 17,314 17,396 / 5,259 5,282 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    17,248 / 5,238 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    17,166 17,099 / 5,215 5,194 levels.

    SENSEX

    NIFTY

    News Analysis IIP comes in at 2.4% yoy for May L&T inaugurates switchgear facility at Vadodara 1QFY2013 Result Reviews- TCS, Infosys 1QFY2013 Result Previews- HDFC BankRefer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (July 11, 2012)

    FII 2,460 2,209 251 3,148 49,142

    MFs 386 560 (174) (1459) (7,304)

    FII Derivatives (July12, 2012)

    Index Futures 1,502 1,917 (416) 14,634

    Stock Futures 1,131 1,610 (480) 26,101

    Gainers / Losers

    United Spirits 766 6.1 Infosys 2,265 (8.2)

    Indiabulls Real Est 64 4.1 Hexaware Tech 115 (4.5)

    Unitech 25 4.1 India Infoline 58 (4.3)

    Godrej Inds 251 4.0 Ashok Leyland 25 (4.3)

    HPCL 354 3.1 Rajesh Exports 133 (4.3)

    BSE Sensex (1.5) (256.6) 17,233

    Nifty (1.3) (71.1) 5,235

    MID CAP (0.6) (37.1) 6,262

    SMALL CAP (0.7) (44.6) 6,745

    BSE HC (0.1) (5.5) 6,938

    BSE PSU (0.1) (5.5) 7,332

    BANKEX (0.9) (114.6) 12,208

    AUTO (1.2) (108.3) 9,312

    METAL (1.0) (111.8) 10,765

    OIL & GAS 0.3 21.8 8,027

    BSE IT (5.1) (289.8) 5,384

    Dow Jones (0.3) (31.3) 12,573NASDAQ (0.8) (21.8) 2,866

    FTSE (1.0) (56.2) 5,608

    Nikkei (1.5) (131.0) 8,720

    Hang Seng (2.0) (394.8) 19,025

    Straits Times (0.6) (17.3) 2,972

    Shanghai Com 0.5 10.1 2,185

    INFY (11.2) 4.9 $38.8

    WIT (5.2) (0.4) $8.1IBN (2.4) 0. 8 $33.0

    HDB (1.9) 0.6 $33.0

    Advances 1,133 439

    Declines 1,679 985

    Unchanged 105 81

    BSE 2,189

    NSE 10,325

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    Market OutlookJuly 13, 2012

    IIP comes in at 2.4% yoy for May

    Industrial production (IIP) growth came in positive at 2.4% yoy, ahead of estimates

    of 1.8% yoy, after two months of negative growth (April growth revised downwards

    from 0.1% yoy to -0.9% yoy). The 12-month rolling industrial production growth,

    which has been on a declining trend since November 2010 (9.9%), slipped further

    to 2.1% yoy.

    Manufacturing index, which has witnessed continued sluggish growth over the past

    year, grew in-line with the overall IIP at 2.5% yoy in May. Only 12 out of 22

    industry groups in the manufacturing sector registered above zero growth during

    May 2012. Mining activity contracted by 0.9% during May. In fact, in the last 12

    months, mining index has been continually contracting since August 2011, apart

    from 2.7% yoy growth registered in February 2012. Growth in electricity

    production was relatively healthy at 5.9% yoy.

    As per use-based data, apart from capital goods index, which disappointed onceagain with a contraction of 7.7% yoy, and consumer non durables index, which

    was flat yoy, all other indexes managed to report moderate growth figures.

    Industrial production breakdown (%, yoy)

    May-11 6.3 1.8 10.3 7.5 6.2 0.1 7.2 5.1 9.0

    Jun-11 11.2 (1.4) 7.9 7.8 38.7 1.6 3.1 1.6 4.4

    Jul-11 3.1 0.6 13.1 10.0 (13.7) (0.1) 6.4 9.0 4.1

    Aug-11 4.1 (5.5) 9.5 5.8 4.0 (1.0) 2.1 5.5 (0.7)

    Sep-11 3.1 (7.5) 9.0 5.3 (6.5) (1.4) 5.7 8.9 2.7

    Oct-11 (6.0) (5.9) 5.6 1.2 (26.5) (8.4) 0.1 (0.4) 0.5

    Nov-11 6.6 (3.5) 14.6 6.5 (4.7) 1.3 12.8 10.4 15.0

    Dec-11 2.8 (3.3) 9.1 5.5 (16.0) 18.2 10.1 5.1 13.8

    Jan-12 1.4 (2.4) 3.2 1.8 (1.7) (2.8) 2.9 (7.1) 11.0

    Feb-12 3.9 2.7 8.0 7.7 10.2 (0.2) (0.3) (6.1) 4.5

    Mar-12 (4.0) (1.3) 2.7 0.9 (20.3) (1.7) 1.2 1.0 1.2

    Apr-12 (1.2) (3.2) 4.6 2.1 (19.6) (1.6) 3.7 5.2 2.5

    May-12 2.5 (0.9) 5.9 4.1 (7.7) 2.7 4.3 9.3 0.1

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    L&T inaugurates switchgear facility at Vadodara

    Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) inaugurated its manufacturing facility for switchgear

    products at Vadodara, a capacity expansion initiative for its Electrical &

    Automation (E&A) wing. The E&A wing, one of the market leaders in low voltage

    switchgear in the country, will manufacture air circuit breakers (ACBs) and

    moulded case circuit breakers (MCCBs) at this facility. This facility will enable L&T

    to elevate switchgear manufacturing technology to the next level, and advance

    further in their goal to upgrade manufacturing capabilities in India. Further, smart

    mix of labour and automation deployed there would enhance productivity by 2.5

    times. The lines are equipped to produce circuit breakers of different frames andseveral ratings from 16A to 6300A.

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    Market OutlookJuly 13, 2012

    At the CMP of `1,410, the stock is trading at PE of 14.1x FY2014E earnings, after

    adjusting for investments, which is below the historical trading multiple for L&T. We

    have used the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology to value the company to

    capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in the different

    businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis and

    investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price worksout to `1,553.

    Result Reviews

    TCS (CMP: `1,236 / TP: - / Upside: -)

    TCS reported yet another healthy quarterly result. The most remarkable thing was

    5.3% qoq volume growth. The dollar revenue grew by 3.0% qoq to US$2,728mn.

    The EBIT margin of the company declined by 20bp qoq to 27.6%, the negativeimpact of wage hike got absorbed by benefits from INR depreciation. Bottomline

    of company grew by ~12% qoq to `3,280crdue to lower than expected forex loss

    (~`94cr).

    TCS, like Infosys, also said that unprecedented currency volatility continued to be a

    challenge in the short-term, but it continues to see good demand from global

    companies. Among key deal wins included a US$100mn contract with a leading

    North American retailer, a multi-million dollar managed services contract by a

    North American communications solutions provider and a multi-year contract from

    an Australian financial institution. Overall the results were encouraging with

    management commentary indicating that the company would be able to growhigher than industry. as valuations preclude us from taking

    a more favorable view in terms of good absolute upsides. Still, that said, TCS

    remains the best relative play in near term and will act as defensive for investors.

    FY2013E 60,787 30.1 12,814 65.5 31.3 18.9 5.9 12.5 3.8

    FY2014E 68,558 29.2 14,412 73.6 28.2 16.8 4.7 11.2 3.3

    Infosys (CMP:`

    2,265 / TP:`

    2,530 / Upside: 12%)For 1QFY2013, Infosys reported yet another disappointing quarterly result,

    broadly disappointing on all fronts. The dollar revenues declined by 1.1% qoq to

    US$1,752mn, impacted due to 3.7% qoq decline in pricing. The cross currency

    movement also impacted the companys revenue by US$13mn. In addition, the

    company took a hit of US$15mn as a one-time reversal in a transformation

    project from a European utilities client. In the constant currency terms also, the

    company has not been able to meet its dollar revenue guidance of 0-1% qoq

    growth. Revenue in constant currency (CC) terms came in at US$1,763mn, down

    0.4% qoq. One key positive thing was that the companys volumes grew by 2.7%

    qoq led by 2.9% offshore volume growth and 2.3% onsite volume growth. In INRterms, revenue came in at `9,616cr, up 8.6% qoq, aided by ~8% qoq INR

    depreciation against the USD in 1QFY2013.

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    Market OutlookJuly 13, 2012

    The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin declined by 181bp and 190bp qoq to

    30.8% and 28.0%, respectively, despite having considerable benefits from ~8%

    qoq INR depreciation against USD. Operating margins of the company were

    impacted adversely by ~3.7% qoq decline in revenue productivity and US$15mn

    of revenue reversal on account of a project cancellation. Management indicated

    that they expect EBIT margin to go down by 50-100bp in FY2013 which does notfactor any wage hike.

    The most disappointing thing in Infosys result was revision of FY2013 USD revenue

    growth guidance downwards to at least 5% from 8-10% earlier, tad lower than our

    estimate of 6-8% taking into account: a) 1.5% impact due to adverse cross

    currency movement, b) 3.2% impact due to price decline and c) rest due to impact

    on overall demand scenario. The management has stopped issuing quarterly

    guidance citing uncertainly in demand environment which is discomforting. We

    believe this clearly indicates challenging visibility in business volumes and

    managements future expectation. Post 1.1% decline in USD revenue in

    1QFY2012, the company requires ~3% ask rate in 2Q-4QFY2013 to achieve 5%growth in FY2013, which at current scenario looks a bit stretched.

    At the CMP of `2,265, the stock is trading at 14.0x FY2013E and 13.0x FY2014E

    EPS. We value the company at 14.5x FY2014E of `174.5 which is significant

    discounts to its peak valuations as well as to Sensex.

    FY2013E 39,151 31.6 9,247 161.9 23.8 14.0 3.3 8.6 2.7FY2014E 41,743 31.9 9,966 174.5 22.1 13.0 2.9 7.6 2.4

    Bank (CMP: `580 / TP: - / Upside :-)

    HDFC Bank is expected to announce another healthy set of results for 1QFY2013.

    We expect the bank to report healthy NII growth of 22.1% yoy to `3,476cr. Non-

    interest income is expected to register growth of 28.6% yoy to `1,440cr, leading to

    operating income growth of 23.9% yoy. Due to a relatively high increase in

    operating expenses (expected to increase by 30.7% yoy), pre-provision profit is

    expected to grow by relatively low 17.4% yoy. Provisioning expenses are expected

    to decline by 33.4% yoy to `296cr, leading to healthy net profit growth of 30.2%

    yoy to `1,413cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 3.3x FY2014E

    P/ABV.

    FY2013E 22,076 4.3 6,722 28.6 149.5 1.8 20.7 20.2 3.9

    FY2014E 27,921 4.4 8,394 35.8 176.1 1.7 21.9 16.2 3.3

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    Market OutlookJuly 13, 2012

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Net profit 1,422 1,085 31 1,751 (19)

    Net sales 1,428 1,244 15 1,446 (1)

    EBITDA 221 222 (1) 213 4

    EBITDA margin (%) 15.5 17.9 14.7

    Net profit 154 163 (6) 143 6

    Net profit 1,140 1,118 2 1,277 (11)

    Economic and Political News

    Cabinet defers 11% stake sale in SAIL Monitoring mechanism to be set up for PPP projects Cabinet defers Forward Contract Bill Cabinet approves a `10,000cr aid for electronics sector

    Corporate News

    Infosys will hire 35,000 people, but may not hike salary BPCL, Videocon find oil off Brazil Coast Vodafone to acquire NZ's TelstraClear for `3,700cr Bosch suspends production at its Bangalore plant for two days Greaves Cotton inks pact with Atul AutoSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Date Company

    July 13, 2012 HDFC Bank, Sintex

    July 14, 2012

    July 15, 2012

    July 16, 2012 Exide Industries, South Ind.Bank, Mindtree

    July 17, 2012 Axis Bank

    July 18, 2012 Bajaj Auto, CRISIL, Infotech Enterprises

    July 19, 2012 Hero Motocorp, Kotak Mah. Bank, Dr Reddy's, Persistent, Tata Sponge

    July 20, 2012 Hind. Zinc, UltraTech Cement, Asian Paints, Zee Entertainment, Crompton Greaves, United Phosphorus, HT Media

    July 21, 2012

    July 22, 2012

    July 23, 2012 Larsen & Toubro, HUL, Idea Cellular, Dabur India, Colgate, Tata Global

    July 24, 2012 Wipro, Lupin, LIC Housing Fin., Ashok Leyland, Page Industries

    July 25, 2012 Power Grid Corpn, Aventis, Madras Cements, GIPCL

    July 26, 2012 BHEL, Ambuja Cements, Gujarat Gas, Thermax, D B Corp, Bajaj Electrical

    July 27, 2012 ICICI Bank, Central Bank, CESC

    July 28, 2012 Maruti, Vesuvius India

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Result Calendar

    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    July 13, 2012 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jun (1.00) (0.40)

    China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun 9.60 9.80

    China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 8.10 7.70

    July 16, 2012 IndiaMonthly Wholesale PricesYoY%

    % Change Jun 7.55 7.61

    Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jun 2.40 --

    July 17, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jun 2.80 --

    US Industrial Production % Jun (0.09) 0.40

    US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Jun (0.30) --

    July 18, 2012 US Housing Starts Thousands Jun 708.00 743.00

    US Building permits Thousands Jun 784.00 773.00

    UK Jobless claims change % Change Jun 8.10 --

    July 19, 2012 US Existing home sales Millions Jun 4.55 4.64

    July 23, 2012 Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

    Value Jul A (19.80) --

    July 24, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value Jul A 49.90 --

    Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul A 45.00 --

    July 25, 2012 UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q A (0.20) --

    US New home sales Thousands Jun 369.00 --

    July 27, 2012 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.90 --

    July 31, 2012 US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

    1985=100Jul 62.00 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    www.angelbroking.com

    July 13, 2012

    Market Outlook

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    Market StrategyJuly 13, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly GD P trends

    5. 9

    7. 5

    9. 8

    7. 4

    9. 48. 5

    7. 68. 2

    9. 2

    8. 0

    6. 76. 1

    5. 3

    3. 0

    4. 0

    5. 0

    6. 0

    7. 0

    8. 0

    9. 010.0

    4Q

    FY09

    1Q

    FY10

    2Q

    FY10

    3Q

    FY10

    4Q

    FY10

    1Q

    FY11

    2Q

    FY11

    3Q

    FY11

    4Q

    FY11

    1Q

    FY12

    2Q

    FY12

    3Q

    FY12

    4Q

    FY12

    (%)

    Source: C SO , Ang el Research

    Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

    9. 5

    3. 7 3. 42. 5

    (5.0)

    6. 0

    2. 7

    1. 0

    4. 3

    (3.2)

    (0.9)

    2. 4

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2. 0

    4. 0

    6. 0

    8. 0

    10.012.0

    Jun

    -11

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

    -11

    Dec

    -11

    Jan

    -12

    Fe

    b-

    12

    M

    ar

    -12

    Apr

    -12

    M

    ay

    -12

    (%)

    Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

    9. 5 9. 4 9. 810.0 9. 9 9. 5

    7. 76. 9

    7. 4 7. 7 7. 2 7. 6

    0. 0

    2. 0

    4. 0

    6. 0

    8. 0

    10.0

    12.0

    Jun

    -11

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

    -11

    Dec

    -11

    Jan

    -12

    Fe

    b-1

    2

    M

    ar

    -12

    Apr

    -12

    M

    ay

    -12

    (%)

    Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4 :M an ufacturing and services PM I

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

    Jun

    -11

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

    -11

    Dec

    -11

    Jan

    -12

    Fe

    b-

    12

    M

    ar

    -12

    Apr

    -12

    M

    ay

    -12

    Jun

    -12

    M fg. PM I Services PM I

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5 :Exports and imports growth trends

    (15.0)

    0. 0

    15.0

    30.0

    45.0

    60.0

    75.0

    Jun

    -11

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

    -11

    Dec

    -11

    Jan

    -12

    Fe

    b-

    12

    M

    ar

    -12

    Apr

    -12

    M

    ay

    -12

    Expo rts yo y g rowth Im p orts yo y g rowth(%)

    Source: Bloomb erg, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Jun

    -11

    Ju

    l-11

    Aug

    -11

    Sep

    -11

    O

    ct-11

    Nov

    -11

    Dec

    -11

    Jan

    -12

    Fe

    b-

    12

    M

    ar

    -12

    Apr

    -12

    M

    ay

    -12

    Jun

    -12

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 132 - 2,574 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 18.9 16.5 4.0 3.4 22.8 22.3 1.8 1.5

    United Phosphorus Buy 120 183 5,550 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.0 6.6 1.2 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 306 345 2,615 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.5 9.3 2.4 2.0 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.8

    Apollo Tyres Buy 83 100 4,201 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.9 6.3 1.3 1.1 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 25 33 6,585 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.2 8.3 2.0 1.8 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle Buy 438 514 661 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 8.7 7.7 2.2 1.8 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,492 1,787 43,159 21,665 24,334 18.6 18.4 111.7 123.2 13.4 12.1 5.2 4.2 43.8 38.5 1.6 1.3

    Bharat Forge Buy 303 372 7,049 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.6 11.4 2.6 2.2 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

    Bosch India Neutral 8,821 - 27,698 9,106 10,255 19.4 19.3 410.2 460.3 21.5 19.2 4.8 3.9 22.1 20.4 2.7 2.3

    CEAT Buy 99 164 340 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

    Exide Industries Accumulate 139 146 11,802 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 19.5 15.5 3.4 2.9 18.6 20.3 1.7 1.4

    FAG Bearings Neutral 1,491 - 2,478 1,492 1,703 18.8 18.5 115.3 129.8 12.9 11.5 2.8 2.3 23.5 21.6 1.4 1.1

    Hero Motocorp Buy 2,059 2,473 41,107 25,970 29,772 15.0 15.5 139.7 154.5 14.7 13.3 6.9 5.3 54.7 44.9 1.2 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 97 135 400 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 718 824 44,059 35,881 40,746 10.0 10.0 47.5 53.2 15.1 13.5 3.0 2.6 21.3 20.5 1.0 0.8

    Maruti Accumulate 1,195 1,364 34,523 39,959 46,670 6.0 7.0 71.4 90.9 16.8 13.1 2.0 1.8 12.8 14.4 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Buy 170 216 6,655 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.8 9.4 3.1 2.4 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

    Subros Neutral 35 - 207 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 7.7 6.8 0.8 0.7 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.4

    Tata Motors Buy 237 305 63,070 191,303 211,004 13.0 12.9 40.7 43.8 5.8 5.4 2.0 1.7 36.0 33.1 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Neutral 41 - 1,934 7,442 8,198 6.2 6.1 4.8 5.2 8.6 7.8 1.5 1.3 18.2 17.9 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 784 498 16,613 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 43.0 37.8 5.8 5.2 14.4 14.6 1.9 1.6BGR Energy Neutral 306 - 2,206 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 10.2 9.5 1.8 1.6 18.4 17.6 1.1 1.0

    BHEL Neutral 231 - 56,576 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.8 9.6 2.0 1.7 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.1

    Blue Star Neutral 184 - 1,652 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 19.1 11.3 3.8 3.0 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Accumulate 130 142 8,317 12,451 14,265 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.5 16.2 13.7 2.2 1.9 13.9 14.9 0.7 0.6

    Jyoti Structures Buy 43 67 352 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.9 3.2 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 57 73 1,468 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.4 4.7 1.0 0.9 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4

    LMW Buy 1,649 1,992 1,858 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.5 9.9 1.9 1.8 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

    Thermax Neutral 496 - 5,908 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 16.7 17.5 3.2 2.8 20.2 16.9 1.0 0.9

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    July 13, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 130712

    9/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,263 - 23,713 11,096 12,607 21.0 21.7 76.1 82.9 16.6 15.2 3.1 2.8 19.3 19.3 1.9 1.6

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 169 - 26,010 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 15.6 14.1 3.3 2.9 19.7 19.8 2.2 1.8

    India Cements Neutral 82 - 2,527 4,364 4,791 18.9 19.1 9.2 11.4 8.9 7.2 0.7 0.7 8.0 9.5 0.5 0.5

    J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 79 - 972 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 15.2 16.8 5.2 4.7 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.0 0.6 1.0

    Madras Cements Neutral 155 - 3,686 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.6 9.1 1.6 1.4 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4

    Shree Cements Neutral 2,885 - 10,050 5,519 6,293 24.5 23.7 156.6 225.3 18.4 12.8 4.6 3.9 22.3 26.0 1.5 1.2

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,574 - 43,152 20,099 22,642 21.7 22.9 89.6 1 04.7 17.6 15.0 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.9 2.0 1.9Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 217 273 1,144 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.6 8.1 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

    Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 293 2,489 2,755 7.0 7.8 3.0 4.0 5.3 4.0 0.5 0.4 8.7 10.8 0.3 0.3

    Hind. Const. Neutral 20 - 1,219 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (11.2) (25.8) 1.2 1.3 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

    IRB Infra Buy 134 166 4,469 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 9.0 7.9 1.4 1.2 16.1 15.8 2.8 2.6

    ITNL Buy 184 265 3,576 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.9 27.8 8.0 6.6 1.2 1.0 15.5 16.4 2.2 2.1

    IVRCL Infra Buy 49 61 1,318 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 19.5 10.8 0.7 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

    Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 79 88 16,693 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 18.5 15.7 1.5 1.4 8.5 9.3 2.4 2.1

    Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,410 1,553 86,384 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 78.4 85.2 18.0 16.6 3.0 2.6 16.1 15.3 1.6 1.4

    Madhucon Proj Buy 37 56 273 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.0 7.9 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 42 - 1,088 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 25.8 22.0 0.5 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

    Patel Engg. Neutral 98 - 687 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 7.0 6.8 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 58 - 1,933 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 32.3 18.2 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.6

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 144 182 2,162 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 17.0 13.8 2.3 2.0 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.9

    Simplex Infra Buy 225 265 1,111 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 9.5 7.6 0.9 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.5

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 144 153 7,210 7,467 8,685 3.2 3.3 37.5 41.5 3.9 3.5 0.7 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -

    Andhra Bank Reduce 115 107 6,421 5,225 6,024 3.3 3.3 22.7 25.4 5.1 4.5 0.8 0.7 16.0 15.8 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,047 1,489 43,378 16,488 20,297 3.2 3.3 118.4 145.2 8.9 7.2 1.7 1.4 20.3 21.1 - -

    Bank of Baroda Buy 722 921 28,276 16,157 19,475 2.7 2.7 123.7 148.3 5.8 4.9 1.0 0.8 17.3 18.1 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 341 388 19,552 13,657 15,902 2.5 2.6 59.5 70.6 5.7 4.8 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.9 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 49 52 2,910 3,506 3,925 3.2 3.2 10.2 11.9 4.8 4.2 0.7 0.6 15.3 15.8 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 427 492 18,894 12,296 14,445 2.4 2.5 81.5 92.2 5.2 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.4 16.3 - -

    Central Bank Reduce 80 72 5,915 7,001 8,211 2.5 2.6 14.0 20.6 5.7 3.9 0.9 0.8 11.0 14.5 - -

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    July 13, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 130712

    10/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Accumulate 425 465 6,297 5,294 6,070 2.3 2.3 106.3 110.1 4.0 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.7 16.2 - -

    Dena Bank Accumulate 101 106 3,525 3,170 3,577 2.9 2.9 22.8 25.3 4.4 4.0 0.7 0.6 17.2 16.6 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 440 - 7,523 2,736 3,165 3.4 3.4 49.3 57.4 8.9 7.7 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.5 - -

    HDFC Neutral 674 - 100,443 7,372 8,812 3.6 3.5 31.5 37.7 21.4 17.9 4.3 3.8 34.8 32.1 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 580 - 136,608 22,076 27,921 4.3 4.4 28.7 35.8 20.2 16.2 3.9 3.3 20.7 21.9 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 928 1,169 106,663 22,368 26,857 2.8 2.9 68.2 80.4 13.6 11.6 1.6 1.5 14.2 15.4 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 96 113 12,215 8,152 9,907 1.9 2.1 19.7 24.1 4.9 4.0 0.6 0.6 13.6 15.0 - -Indian Bank Neutral 186 - 7,983 6,417 7,292 3.5 3.5 40.2 43.1 4.6 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.9 16.9 - -

    IOB Accumulate 84 91 6,663 7,578 8,662 2.6 2.7 17.2 22.5 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.1 14.3 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 928 979 4,497 2,525 2,858 3.5 3.5 175.8 183.1 5.3 5.1 1.0 0.8 19.3 17.5 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 269 286 13,593 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 11.0 8.8 2.1 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Accumulate 255 269 7,449 6,497 7,533 2.8 2.8 53.4 63.9 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.3 14.3 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 844 1,050 28,637 20,142 23,929 3.2 3.3 153.3 174.3 5.5 4.9 1.0 0.8 18.3 18.0 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,775 1,447 1,664 2.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 6.5 6.0 1.2 1.1 19.5 18.2 - -

    St Bk of India Accumulate 2,217 2,443 148,761 67,783 78,208 3.7 3.6 226.0 264.2 9.8 8.4 1.6 1.4 17.7 18.1 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 104 118 6,266 7,176 8,299 3.1 3.1 25.1 29.1 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.6 17.8 - -

    UCO Bank Reduce 79 71 5,241 5,642 6,438 2.5 2.5 16.4 17.6 4.8 4.5 0.9 0.8 16.2 15.4 - -

    Union Bank Buy 212 256 11,691 10,623 12,404 3.0 3.0 42.5 49.6 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.9 17.2 - -

    United Bank Buy 61 78 2,204 3,599 4,212 2.8 3.0 18.2 22.3 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.4 15.0 16.2 - -

    Vijaya Bank Reduce 58 52 2,887 2,695 3,097 2.2 2.3 9.6 12.0 6.1 4.9 0.8 0.7 12.0 13.6 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 353 454 12,509 3,250 4,261 2.8 2.9 34.1 42.8 10.4 8.3 2.2 1.8 23.2 23.9 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,722 - 35,704 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 29.7 25.1 10.1 7.9 38.0 35.4 3.0 2.6Britannia Buy 524 633 6,263 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 25.3 19.1 9.9 7.4 42.7 44.3 1.1 0.9

    Colgate Neutral 1,128 - 15,343 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 38.2 43.8 29.5 25.8 35.1 27.6 130.2 119.9 5.0 4.4

    Dabur India Neutral 116 - 20,130 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 27.9 23.5 10.1 8.3 39.3 42.0 3.4 3.0

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,622 - 11,028 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 103.0 123.3 25.5 21.3 7.9 6.3 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 579 - 19,710 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 25.4 21.3 7.0 5.6 31.3 38.4 3.5 2.9

    HUL Neutral 443 - 95,735 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 31.3 27.0 23.5 18.3 82.7 76.2 3.6 3.1

    ITC Neutral 252 - 196,942 29,588 34,063 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 27.0 23.2 8.7 7.1 35.2 33.8 6.4 5.5

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    July 13, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 130712

    11/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 183 - 11,775 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 27.5 22.5 7.4 5.8 30.0 28.8 2.6 2.1

    Nestle* Neutral 4,500 - 43,389 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 114.4 143.0 39.3 31.5 23.7 16.3 71.1 61.4 5.0 4.1

    Tata Global Buy 115 136 7,136 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 18.4 15.4 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.9 0.9 0.8

    IT

    HCL Tech Buy 482 562 33,382 24,029 26,633 18.3 17.2 39.6 43.2 12.2 11.2 2.8 2.3 22.9 21.0 1.4 1.2

    Hexaware Accumulate 115 132 3,415 1,921 2,178 20.6 20.0 10.4 11.4 11.1 10.1 2.7 2.3 24.7 23.4 1.5 1.3

    Infosys Buy 2,265 2,747 130,078 39,364 42,981 32.2 30.5 161.6 171.7 14.0 13.2 3.2 2.7 22.9 20.5 2.7 2.3Infotech Enterprises Neutral 183 - 2,034 1,825 2,008 17.5 17.1 16.9 18.7 10.8 9.8 1.5 1.3 13.7 13.3 0.8 0.6

    KPIT Cummins Neutral 114 - 2,033 2,145 2,316 16.0 14.8 9.9 11.3 11.5 10.1 2.3 1.8 20.8 19.1 0.9 0.8

    Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 80 87 9,456 7,492 8,038 17.0 16.3 8.1 8.3 9.9 9.6 1.4 1.2 14.1 12.6 0.9 0.7

    Mindtree Accumulate 637 710 2,593 2,324 2,533 18.3 16.9 62.4 64.5 10.2 9.9 2.2 1.8 21.2 18.0 0.9 0.8

    Mphasis Neutral 382 - 8,030 5,704 6,009 18.6 17.7 36.0 37.1 10.6 10.3 1.5 1.3 14.0 12.6 0.9 0.8

    NIIT Buy 43 52 702 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 6.0 4.8 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

    Persistent Neutral 390 - 1,561 1,187 1,274 26.7 26.0 34.5 42.6 11.3 9.2 1.6 1.4 14.4 15.4 1.0 0.9

    TCS Neutral 1,236 - 241,932 60,787 68,558 30.1 29.2 65.5 73.6 18.9 16.8 5.9 4.7 31.3 28.2 3.8 3.3

    Tech Mahindra Neutral 710 - 9,055 6,282 6,477 17.5 16.5 82.9 85.0 8.6 8.4 1.9 1.5 21.6 18.4 1.4 1.3

    Wipro Buy 359 451 88,401 44,597 49,033 20.3 20.5 26.6 30.1 13.5 12.0 2.6 2.3 19.5 18.9 1.6 1.4

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 199 269 3,645 1,638 1,851 25.8 26.6 13.5 16.1 14.7 12.3 3.3 2.8 23.9 24.2 2.1 1.8

    HT Media Buy 97 148 2,289 2,224 2,509 16.6 17.2 8.6 10.8 11.4 9.0 1.4 1.2 12.9 14.3 0.6 0.5

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 85 125 2,685 1,521 1,698 22.6 23.1 6.2 6.4 13.8 13.2 3.4 2.9 20.7 23.9 2.0 1.8

    PVR Neutral 169 - 439 625 732 16.5 15.7 11.9 13.3 14.2 12.8 1.4 1.3 11.9 12.0 1.1 0.9

    Sun TV Network Neutral 301 - 11,874 2,002 2,296 77.1 76.7 18.9 22.1 16.0 13.7 4.1 3.5 27.7 28.3 5.4 4.5Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Reduce 473 429 10,042 11,408 13,773 31.0 30.0 53.7 60.8 8.8 7.8 1.3 1.1 15.3 14.9 2.6 2.2

    Coal India Neutral 355 - 224,041 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 14.7 13.6 4.0 3.3 30.4 26.8 2.4 2.0

    Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 20 22 697 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 9.9 7.5 0.4 0.2 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

    Hind. Zinc Buy 119 141 50,070 13,050 14,585 51.4 52.1 14.5 16.5 8.2 7.2 1.6 1.3 20.8 19.9 2.0 1.4

    Hindalco Neutral 123 - 23,558 83,212 91,057 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 9.0 6.8 0.7 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 701 - 15,633 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 9.4 7.9 0.9 0.8 10.7 11.6 0.8 0.7

    MOIL Accumulate 280 296 4,707 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.5 8.8 1.7 1.5 19.0 18.2 2.5 2.0

    Monnet Ispat Buy 387 447 2,488 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 6.5 5.8 0.9 0.8 15.6 15.3 1.5 1.1

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    July 13, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 130712

    12/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    Nalco Reduce 58 54 15,025 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 22.8 16.3 1.3 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.3 1.3

    NMDC Neutral 188 - 74,537 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 9.9 9.0 2.4 2.0 27.1 24.4 4.1 3.6

    SAIL Neutral 93 - 38,207 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 9.9 8.8 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1

    Sesa Goa Neutral 193 - 16,761 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.4 0.1

    Sterlite Inds Buy 105 123 35,219 45,294 48,059 25.7 25.3 16.5 18.0 6.4 5.8 0.7 0.6 12.0 11.2 0.5 0.3

    Tata Steel Buy 429 499 41,709 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 8.0 6.5 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

    Oil & GasCairn India Buy 314 372 59,945 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.2 6.5 1.0 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.7 2.0

    GAIL Neutral 360 - 45,684 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 10.2 9.7 1.8 1.6 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

    ONGC Accumulate 282 321 241,393 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 9.0 8.7 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

    Reliance Industries Neutral 721 - 236,161 316,404 319,119 11.2 12.0 63.5 68.7 11.4 10.5 1.2 1.0 11.7 11.4 0.7 0.7

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 58 91 1,085 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 8.7 6.3 2.1 1.7 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.7

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 114 156 3,314 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 9.7 9.0 1.0 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.8 0.6

    Aventis* Neutral - 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 18.6 17.0

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 780 953 15,964 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 37.6 47.7 20.7 16.4 4.6 3.7 26.8 27.5 2.6 2.1

    Cipla Buy 326 379 26,207 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.8 17.3 3.1 2.7 16.7 16.8 3.3 2.9

    Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,649 - 27,982 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.7 17.8 4.1 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.5

    Dishman Pharma Buy 64 92 514 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 6.9 5.6 0.5 0.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 0.9

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,045 - 17,323 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.9 24.8 7.7 6.7 30.8 29.0 5.6 4.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 54 82 501 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.3 6.1 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

    Ipca labs Buy 374 435 4,716 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 31.9 36.3 11.7 10.3 3.6 2.9 26.2 26.8 1.8 1.5

    Lupin Buy 552 647 24,676 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 20.2 17.0 4.9 3.9 27.0 25.2 2.8 2.3Orchid Chemicals Buy 118 178 835 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.1 5.3 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.0 0.9

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 488 - 20,597 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.7 16.4 5.1 4.2 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

    Sun Pharma Neutral 621 - 63,962 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 27.4 27.5 4.6 4.1 17.9 15.6 5.5 4.4

    Power

    CESC Accumulate 304 342 3,801 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.7 6.3 0.7 0.7 11.2 10.9 1.2 1.2

    GIPCL Buy 66 77 994 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.4 6.0 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

    NTPC Neutral 159 - 131,185 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 12.8 11.3 1.6 1.5 13.0 13.5 2.5 2.3

    Real Estate

    Anant Raj Buy 56 78 1,658 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 6.7 4.4 0.4 0.4 6.3 8.9 3.8 2.9

    DLF Neutral 211 - 35,803 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 22.0 15.7 1.4 1.3 6.4 8.7 6.1 5.0

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    July 13, 2012

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    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 130712

    13/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Real Estate

    HDIL Buy 89 115 3,738 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.9 3.4 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.4 2.6

    MLIFE Buy 326 376 1,331 814 897 26.9 27.0 31.3 33.9 10.4 9.6 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.1 2.0 1.8

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 306 - 116,299 80,076 86,613 32.8 33.5 15.5 19.8 19.8 15.4 2.1 1.8 10.5 11.9 2.1 1.8

    Idea Cellular Neutral 83 - 27,355 23,209 26,063 26.2 27.5 3.3 4.9 25.1 16.7 1.9 1.7 7.7 10.3 1.7 1.4

    Rcom Neutral 69 - 14,221 22,125 23,734 31.9 32.0 4.5 5.9 15.4 11.8 0.4 0.4 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.8

    zOthersAbbott India Accumulate 1,481 1,628 3,146 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.4 16.4 5.0 4.1 22.0 27.3 1.7 1.4

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 198 246 1,969 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 11.4 8.9 2.5 2.1 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.5

    Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 290 327 367 405 477 15.8 17.2 31.0 41.0 9.4 7.1 2.1 1.6 24.3 25.8 1.1 0.9

    Cravatex Accumulate 689 785 178 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 14.1 9.7 4.2 3.0 29.8 30.7 0.7 0.6

    CRISIL Neutral 1,071 - 7,516 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 31.2 26.8 14.1 11.3 50.9 46.9 7.2 6.1

    Finolex Cables Buy 43 61 653 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.6 4.2 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 479 615 624 2,346 2,753 5.8 6.7 44.0 68.0 10.9 7.0 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.2

    Goodyear India Accumulate 340 374 784 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 10.8 8.2 2.1 1.8 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

    Graphite India Buy 88 124 1,710 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.1 6.2 0.9 0.9 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.8

    Greenply Industries Buy 199 309 479 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.7 4.5 1.1 0.9 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

    HEG Accumulate 214 242 855 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.1

    Hitachi Accumulate 145 160 332 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 14.2 9.0 1.7 1.5 12.9 17.8 0.5 0.4

    Honeywell Automation Accumulate 2,646 2,864 2,339 1,761 2,024 6.7 8.2 95.0 127.0 27.9 20.8 3.3 2.8 14.1 16.3 1.2 1.1

    INEOS ABS India Accumulate 715 804 1,257 900 1,020 9.0 11.1 33.0 45.0 21.7 15.9 2.9 2.5 14.3 17.0 1.2 1.0

    ITD Cementation Neutral 227 - 261 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.3 5.9 0.6 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

    Jyothy Laboratories Buy 126 268 2,032 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 19.8 11.6 1.7 1.6 8.4 13.9 1.9 1.5MCX Buy 1,111 1,598 5,663 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 16.4 13.9 4.8 4.0 29.1 28.9 6.4 5.0

    MRF Buy 10,269 13,106 4,355 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.7 6.3 1.5 1.2 16.5 17.4 0.5 0.5

    Page Industries Neutral 2,892 - 3,226 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.5 23.9 15.9 12.9 57.4 59.5 3.7 2.9

    Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 540 618 648 1,019 1,220 11.2 12.2 44.2 61.8 12.2 8.7 2.9 2.2 26.8 28.6 0.8 0.7

    Sintex Industries Buy 65 79 1,761 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.7 4.1 0.6 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 282 392 264 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.3 3.6 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

    SpiceJet Buy 34 40 1,649 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 17.5 7.0 41.2 6.0 - - 0.4 0.4

    TAJ GVK Buy 67 108 421 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.5 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    zOthers

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 338 420 520 700 806 18.2 18.2 55.6 65.1 6.1 5.2 0.8 0.7 14.2 14.8 0.3 0.2

    TVS Srichakra Buy 335 462 256 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.6 3.6 1.4 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 766 - 10,020 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 24.7 17.8 1.9 1.8 8.1 10.3 1.7 1.5

    Vesuvius India Accumulate 379 413 768 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.7 11.0 2.2 1.9 18.8 18.6 1.1 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 12, 2012

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    July 13, 2012Market Outlook