market news - colony foodscolonyfoods.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/colony-market-news-… ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Market report
California Dairy report
Market report - eGGs
flour faCts
Jbs usa Weekly
CoMMoDity reCap
riCe Market upDate -
2014 outlook
Cheese & butter
Market upDate
Market News
Click on the link below to view updates:
oil Market WatCh
Dry bean & riCe
Market upDate
Great northern bean Crop
upDate
Egg Market Week of January 20, 2014
Retail demand good to very good. Supplies close to tight. Market firm.
The regional egg markets are as follows:
Northeast Midwest Southeast South Central
Lg 1.31 1.29 1.35 1.38
Md 1.25 1.20 1.26 1.25
Source: Esbenshade, Inc.
Cash prices push toward record highs Delray Beach, FL -- On and off the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, dairy prices continued to push higher this week prompting a frequently asked question: How long can this last?
Milk producers are pondering whether or not to add cows and or add whatever it might take to boost production per cow. Will I be able to afford it a couple of months from now?
Buyers, many already operating hand-to-mouth, are wondering when to pull the trigger on another order. Will the market break lower tomorrow?
This is a tough question anytime prices swing one way or the other, but it is doubly difficult this time. Current price levels - for all key commodities - are unprecedented for this time of year and bumping up against all-time highs - winter, summer, spring or fall.
These product and milk prices and a sharp decline in feed prices are sending black ink to the bottom of milk producers’ ledgers. This will bring forth more milk, but not as quickly as buyers might like.
These product and milk prices will generate some push back from buyers, but in many cases the deal has already been sealed. Numerous manufacturers have mentioned their export orders have been placed well into 2Q and these sales have been hedged.
A growing number of domestic buyers are hedged and it takes time for prices to work thru the value chain and end up on retail shelves where the real pushback kicks into gear.
Milk production is up in other parts of the world but demand is up in other parts of the world.
Bottom-line: I think these price levels have some staying power. Measure it in weeks; not days.
International dairy prices were mostly firm to fractionally higher over the past fortnight, according to USDA’s Dairy Market News survey of market participants in Western Europe and Oceania.
One exception: The European butter price eased, but the mid-point of the prices reported remained very high at US$5,500/MT ($2.49/lb). The Oceania price moved up three cents to $2.00/lb. The European skim milk powder was unchanged at $2.06; Oceania, up a few cents, to $2.22.
Whole milk powder was higher in Europe, at $2.35; Oceania, unchanged, at $2.33. Oceania cheese, unchanged, at $2.22. European whey, up just over a penny, to $0.6520.
USDA and I agree: These international prices will stick around for a while and they are very supportive of USA prices.
USDA expects the Class III price milk to average $19.75 during 1Q14 and Class IV to average $21.75, according the Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook released yesterday. My forecast, released 06 Jan has Class III at $19.87; Class IV at $22.03. Rabobank is on the same page. The bull doesn’t stop here.
All three of us - USDA, Rabo, Dryer - have the 2Q Class III price over $18 and Class IV approaching $21. Rabobank’s forecast was released in mid-Dec.
For calendar 2014, USDA has the Class III price averaging $18.20; Class IV, $20.25. My forecast pegs the 2014 Class III price
Vol. 22, No. 03
Trends, analyses & forecasts by Jerry Dryer
Copyright 2014 by Dairy & Food Market Analyst Inc. All rights reserved. Quotation with credit permitted. Reproduction and/or redistribution prohibited by USA & international law.
17 Jan 2014
Current Cash Prices At-A-Glance...
Cash Cheese Block......................$223.00 (+3.00) Barrel.....................$220.25 (+4.25) Cash Butter AA……..................$185.25 (+17.75) Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Extra Grade...............$208.00 (NC) Grade A…………....$209.25 (+2.75) FMMO Class I Base Price Jan...........................$21.48 (+1.11) CA Class 1 (Jan) Northern..……..........$22.84 (+1.11) Southern..………..…$23.11 (+1.11) Class II Price Dec...........................$21.66 (+0.90) Class III Price Dec...........................$18.95 (+0.62) California 4b Dec...........................$18.03 (+0.73) Class IV Price Dec……....................$21.54 (+1.02) California 4a Dec...........................$21.16 (+0.53)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * (Numbers in parentheses are changes from previous week/month.)
Serving the Dairy Business for 22 Years
Page 2 of 3 17 Jan 2014
Nothing in this report shall be deemed to constitute an offer or solicitation for an offer for the purchase or sale of any commodity or security. Dairy & Food Market Analyst Inc. uses sources that it believes to be reliable, but it cannot warrant the accuracy of any of the data or forecasts included in this report. Copyright 2014 by Dairy & Food Market Analyst Inc. All rights reserved. Quotation with credit permitted. Reproduction or redistribution prohibited by international law. Individual, group and corporate subscription rates are available. Contact Jerry Dryer at (561) 445.1074 or [email protected].
average at $18.66; Class IV at $20.39.
Remember: USDA publishes a price range for each quarter. I’ve used the mid-point of the range for this analysis and comparison.
Cheese and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast to average about $1.80 this year; whey about $0.57 by USDA and yours truly. USDA and I part company; however, on the butter price: USDA says $1.57 for the year; I’m at $1.68.
Milk production is forecast to increase 2.1% (4.3 billion lbs), according to USDA. Cow numbers are expected to increase throughout the year and average 9.250 million head during 2014 vs 9.218 million head last year. Production per cow during 2014 is forecast to total 22,230 lbs; up 1.8% (391 lbs) YoY.
Robust demand is also foreseen; international shipments approaching the record-setting levels of this year and strong growth domestically. USDA’s milkfat export estimate for 2014 is below 2013 by about 1 billion lbs; however, Uncle Sam says commercial usage will hit 197.1 billion lbs (milk equivalent basis) this year; up from 192.7 billion lbs last year. USDA says skim solids exports will be unchanged from last year, but commercial usage will pop from 167.4 billion lbs to 171.1 billion lbs.
Extra Grade nonfat dry milk will be delisted at the CME effective 27 Jan 2014. This is another small step toward reducing the number of nonfat dry milk price points reported each day, week, month. I don’t think there is any
hope of the dairy markets ever being sane; however, its nice there is an effort being made.
Another landmark: The American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI) and Dairy Market News have worked together and developed an electronic price and volume reporting system to (hopefully) facilitate greater participation in USDA’s efforts to report dry product price ranges and the much beloved “AOM” or average-of-the-mostly price point. A trial run using edible WPC 34 is underway. With any wrinkles ironed out, more products will be added.
Fast food restaurant sales were up 15.8% YoY during Nov, according to Census Bureau estimates released this week. Sales across all restaurant styles were up 6.6% in Nov and up 4.3% in Dec when harsh weather took a toll on traffic. Meanwhile, new research from Technomic found that convenience stores “may be stealing significant business from quick-service restaurants.” A Technomic survey found 26% of C-store customers would have opted for fast food were it not for the convenience-store option available to them. Details in Technomic’s “Consumer Brand Metrics: C-Store Shopper Insights Report” at Technomic.com.
Wendy’s reported same-store sales up 3.1% in 4Q13 and up 1.9% in FY13. The company also delivered an upbeat outlook during its earnings
Block Barrels Butter Nonfat Whey
01/11/14 2.0050 1.9490 1.5750 2.0150 0.5928
1 Year Ago 1.7542 1.7385 1.5229 1.5482 0.6560
52-Week Low 1.5899 1.5903 1.3666 1.4918 0.5592
52-Week High 1.9133 1.8990 1.7226 1.9785 0.6560
$0.0000
$0.2000
$0.4000
$0.6000
$0.8000
$1.0000
$1.2000
$1.4000
$1.6000
$1.8000
$2.0000
$2.2000
AMS/NASS Price Analysis
Equivalent Prices, computed pursuant to 7 CFR, Section 1000.54
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Ja
n-0
7
Ap
r-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Oc
t-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Oc
t-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ju
l-0
9
Oc
t-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ju
l-1
0
Oc
t-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Oc
t-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Oc
t-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Oc
t-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Millions of $
Foodservice sales*(All segments)(Thru Dec 2013)
Current Year Prior Year*CENSUS BUREAUAll Segments
Page 3 of 3 17 Jan 2014
Prices and changes in ¢/lb. Numbers in parentheses are changes from previous week. Changes reflect revised prices from previous week.
CME Futures Settling Prices (with changes from previous week)
conference call with analysts: SSS up 2.5% to 3.5% in 2014 and up “at least 3%” long-term. Optimism is being driven by management convinced it has found a sweet spot; delivering a “fast casual” experience (food quality and ambiance) at “fast food” prices which are 40% to 45% lower, according to Wendy’s. Pizza Hut is testing selling pizza-by-the-slice at two locations, York, NB and Pawtucket, RI. Domino’s has been selling by the slice at some of its new stores. McDonald’s is testing a “build-your-own-burger” concept in Laguna Neguel, CA. Domino’s is doing a week-long promo, “50 percent off any menu-priced pizza”, for items ordered digitally. Moe’s Southwest Grill, a small (550 stores), but leading edge fast casual Mexican restaurant chain, had a 4.5% increase in same-store sales during 2014 and will add 100 stores this year. Pizza Hut China, with nearly 1,000 stores, registered a 3.0% decline in same-store sales in Dec, but a 5.0% increase in 4Q13. Complete 4Q and FY results are set for release 03 Feb. Hilmar Cheese Co, Hilmar, CA, has announced plans to build a $75 million to $100 million plant in Turlock, CA that will manufacture a variety of milk powders for export. The plant will create 40 jobs and take in about 50 loads (nearly 3 million lbs) of milk when it is completed in the summer of 2015. Earlier this month, Hilmar said additional 40-lb block capacity at its Dalhart, TX plant will be added later this year. The plant currently handles “almost 1 million gallons of milk” a day. Saputo now owns 45.2% of Warrnambool Cheese & Butter after Bega Cheese announced it would tender its shares (18.8% of WCB) to Saputo. DAIRY DATA Calendar thru 31 Jan 2014:
Federal Holiday, Markets Closed, Mon, Jan 20; GlobalDairyTrade auction, Tue, Jan 21; NASS Cold Storage, Wed, Jan 22; AMS National Dairy Products Sales Report & Advanced Prices & Pricing, Thu, Jan 23; NASS Livestock Slaughter, Thu, Jan 23; NASS Milk Production, Thu, Jan 23; ERS Dairy Data Tables, Tue, Jan28; AMS National Dairy Products Sales Report, Wed, Jan 29 and NASS Agricultural Prices, Fri, Jan 31.
Kind regards,
Jerry [email protected] (561) 445.1074
CME Cash Chge From CME Wkly Chge From NASS Wkly Chge From
Settlement Last Wk Ave Last Wk Ave Last Wk
01/17/14 01/10/14 01/17/14 01/10/14 01/11/14
BLOCKS $2.2300 $0.0300 $2.2115 $0.0595 $2.0050 $0.0505
BARRELS $2.2025 $0.0425 $2.1765 $0.0785 $1.9490 ($0.0175)
BUTTER $1.8525 $0.1775 $1.7740 $0.1260 $1.5750 $0.0067
NFDM Ex Gr $2.0800 $0.0000 $2.0750 ($0.0130) *** ***
NFDM Gr A $2.0975 $0.0275 $2.0755 ($0.0035) *** ***
NFDM NASS *** *** *** *** $2.0150 $0.0111
Whey NASS *** *** *** *** $0.5928 ($0.0050)
CWAP NFDM *** *** *** *** $1.9661 ($0.0003)
WEEKLY CASH PRICES & CHANGES
PRELIMINARY
Week ending01/17/14 Settle Chge O/I Settle Chge O/I Settle Chge O/I
Jan-14 20.94 0.44 4,333 2.059 0.041 1,146 60.375 0.375 271Feb-14 21.92 1.71 4,485 3.130 1.145 1,061 63.750 3.050 288Mar-14 20.49 1.27 3,734 1.986 0.106 1,034 64.000 3.350 335
Apr-14 19.55 0.85 2,772 1.885 0.065 905 64.000 2.725 252May-14 18.99 0.46 2,524 1.833 0.025 828 64.000 3.975 232Jun-14 18.74 0.34 2,294 1.813 0.018 748 63.000 2.800 288
Jul-14 18.40 0.21 1,301 1.795 0.022 425 62.000 4.000 150Aug-14 18.30 0.21 1,234 1.783 0.017 437 60.975 2.975 133Sep-14 18.20 0.20 1,193 1.784 0.016 474 59.000 2.000 124
Oct-14 18.00 0.10 955 1.770 0.013 371 58.500 1.500 93Nov-14 17.86 0.01 967 1.765 0.014 402 57.500 0.500 117Dec-14 17.75 0.07 883 1.752 (0.003) 366 57.125 0.825 73
Jan-15 17.37 0.03 93 1.785 (0.015) 0 43.525 0.000 0Feb-15 17.19 0.00 18 1.830 0.000 0 42.025 0.000 0Mar-15 17.18 0.56 13 1.830 0.000 0 42.025 0.000 0
Apr-15 17.17 0.67 11 1.830 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0May-15 17.17 0.67 10 1.830 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0Jun-15 17.09 0.59 0 1.800 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0
Jul-15 16.09 0.83 0 1.894 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0Aug-15 15.22 0.01 0 1.899 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0Sep-15 15.50 0.00 0 1.904 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0
Ttl O/I 26,820 8,197 2,356
O/I Prior Wk 24,996 7,756 2,205
Class III Milk Cheese Dry Whey
Weekly Market Highlights
Wheat futures prices set new lows this week.
Futures have dropped about forty cents in the last thirty days, or about six percent of their value.
Spring wheat basis premium prices spiked higher due to heavy demand for any wheat that became available on
the spot market.
Rail logistics that have kept wheat from timely delivery continue to be the feature dominating the basis market.
We do not expect improvement in wheat movement or lower flour prices for many weeks to come.
Facts on Flour Durum Wheat
Most of the durum wheat grown in the U.S. is produced in the northern Plains, with 70 to 80 percent grown
in North Dakota alone. Durum wheat is milled into a granular product called semolina, which is used
primarily for pasta products in the U.S. Other uses of semolina include couscous and bread products.
Pasta products from durum are superior because of the desirable golden color and nutty flavor, and because
they hold their shape and firm texture when cooked. A by-product of semolina production is durum flour,
which is used in breads and pre-cooked pasta products.
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Bu
sh
el P
ric
e
Futures & Basis Markets
KC Future
Spring 15% Basis (from MarketFax No.1Northern Spring)
Mpls Future
Winter 13% Basis (from MarketFax No.1hard winter)
Flour pricing consists of a combination of Wheat futures prices and Basis Premium prices per bushel. Information contained on this chart closely resembles Gold Medal All Trumps, Mpls. Future + 15% Basis, and Harvest King, KC Future + 13% Basis. This chart does not reflect changes in millfeed values.
This Chart is meant to indicate Market Direction Only.
JANUARY 16, 2014
January 2014
2013 Great Northern Crop Update—Quality Bulletin
Great Northern beans are a rich source of protein and nutrients and are one of our top sell-
ing white bean varieties. The 2013 crop was small and has some moderate to severe quality is-
sues due to being in fields longer than normal and weather complications during harvest. While
the beans were drying in their cut rows, rain and snow covered the crop causing them to be
darker than in a normal harvest year. The pictures below demonstrate some of the issues with
this year’s crop.
Trinidad Benham is working with our suppliers to source the cleanest and brightest great
northern beans available. In the traditional harvest process, if moisture is present, the quality
will be affected by creating additional cracked seed coats, water damage, discoloration and mud
-tags on the beans. All of these defects are allowable up to a certain percentage by the USDA
and Trinidad specs. However, the industry is challenged this crop year to meet the specification
criteria on every lot. Trinidad is and will be selecting lots that represent the best quality availa-
ble for this growing season, however due to the extreme shortage of white beans the choices
are very limited.
Cracked Seed Coats Water Damage & Mud Tag Discoloration
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
Commodity Fri Net Fri Pr Yr
Futures Prices 10-Jan Change 3-Jan 11-Jan
GSCI Feb -1.0% 610.100 -5.90 616.000 650.75
Crude Feb -1.3% 92.720 -1.24 93.960 93.56
Nat Gas Feb -5.8% 4.053 -0.251 4.304 3.33
Cattle Feb 0.3% 136.700 0.400 136.300 130.60
Hogs Feb -1.0% 85.825 -0.850 86.675 84.20
Corn Mar 2.2% 4.328 0.092 4.235 7.09
Beans Jan 1.1% 13.038 0.145 12.893 14.25
Wheat Mar -6.1% 5.690 -0.368 6.058 7.55 Cattle and Beef (Week over week comparison)
Texas Live Steers 139.00 2.54 136.46 126.70
Nebraska Dressed 222.00 4.94 217.06 203.92
CH Cutout 210.00 9.17 200.83 194.24
SL Cutout 206.53 10.20 196.33 183.49
CH-SL Sprd 3.47 -1.03 4.50 10.75
C112a Ribeye Heavy (3) 570.83 -14.32 585.15 574.64
C114a Chuck, Clod Trmd (3) 259.49 14.41 245.08 219.02
C116a Chuck, Roll (3) 298.74 14.28 284.46 245.35
C120 Brisket 220.55 6.97 213.58 206.40
C167a Knuckle, Peeled 288.35 20.06 268.29 239.38
C168 Round, Top (3) 254.06 7.60 246.46 224.85
C171b Round, Flat (3) 275.99 18.99 257.00 229.00
C171c Round, Eye (3) 285.78 10.26 275.52 255.95
C180 Strip Loin 0x1 (3) 495.45 4.02 491.43 505.15
C184 Top Butt Hvy (3) 285.98 4.62 281.36 335.12
C189a Tender, Pld Hvy (4) 966.58 -0.19 966.77 982.67
50% Chem Lean Trimmings 99.89 9.22 90.67 73.29
90% Chem Lean Trimmings 216.67 4.26 212.41 210.51
F.I. Slaughter 569 48 521 626
Cattle Dress Wgt 803 -1 804 796
Hogs and Pork (Fri over fri comparison)
W.Cornbelt Lean Avg 76.27 -1.73 78.00 82.30
CME Hog Index 80.82 1.07 79.75 84.18
Pork Cutout 84.05 1.26 82.79 85.69
1/4" Trim, VAC 115.22 5.02 110.20 109.26
17/20 Hams, selected 73.42 5.08 68.34 70.24
23/27 Hams, selected 72.31 1.95 70.36 71.91
14/16 Belly 119.62 19.95 99.67 130.73
42% Trim, combo 32.67 0.91 31.76 45.16
72% Trim, combo 68.17 3.04 65.13 60.69
F.I. Slaughter 2,102 111 1,991 2,268
Lean Dress Wgt 213 0 213 208
This Last Last
Energy Week Week Year
Nat Gas 6-mth Strip 3.956 -0.259 4.215 3.413
Storage Inventory
Crude Oil -Mln barrels 357.9 -2.675 360.6 360.3
Gasoline - Mln barrels 227.0 6.243 220.7 235.0
Nat Gas EIA - Tcf 2.817 -0.157 2.974 3.168
Beef Production
523.4
345.4
320.0
370.0
420.0
470.0
520.0
570.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Mil
lio
n P
ou
nd
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
F.I. Cattle Dressed Weights
778.0
810.0
760.0
770.0
780.0
790.0
800.0
810.0
820.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Poun
d
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg Pork Production
362.2
500.1
320.0
340.0
360.0
380.0
400.0
420.0
440.0
460.0
480.0
500.0
520.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Mil
lio
n P
ou
nd
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
F.I. Dressed Hog Weights
203.0
213.0
198.0
200.0
202.0
204.0
206.0
208.0
210.0
212.0
214.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Poun
d
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
Week Ended: Friday, Jan 10, 2014 Prepared By Risk Management WEEKLY COMMODITY RECAP
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
F.I. Cattle Slaughter
659.7
432.1
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
550.0
600.0
650.0
700.0
750.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Tho
usa
nd
He
ad
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
F.I. Beef Production
523.4
345.4
320.0
370.0
420.0
470.0
520.0
570.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Mil
lio
n P
ou
nd
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
Choice Boxed Beef Cutout Value
182.51
210.47
200.83
210.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
190.00
200.00
210.00
220.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
pe
r C
WT
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Select Boxed Beef Cutout Value
195.27
176.31
196.33
206.53
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
190.00
200.00
210.00
220.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
pe
r C
WT
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Choice-Select Boxed Beef Cutout Spread
0.39
19.75
4.50
3.47
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
pe
r C
WT
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Blended 55% Choice Cutout
181.49
202.21
198.81
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
190.00
200.00
210.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
pe
r C
WT
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Cattle Summary
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
C112A 3H Ribeye
565.76
782.41
585.15
570.83
350.00
450.00
550.00
650.00
750.00
850.00
950.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C114A 3 Shoulder Clod
193.61
233.09245.08
259.49
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C116A Chuck Roll
217.93
296.93
284.46
298.74
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
300.00
320.00
340.00
360.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C168 ¾” Top Inside Round
185.19
225.30235.82
243.10
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C120 Brisket
187.56
208.79
213.58
220.55
130.00
150.00
170.00
190.00
210.00
230.00
250.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C180 3 0x1 Strip
460.26
823.48
491.43
495.45
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1,000.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C184 3 Top Butt
365.60
274.06281.36
285.98
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
C189A 4 Tender
864.01
1,279.99
966.77
966.58
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1,000.00
1,100.00
1,200.00
1,300.00
1,400.00
1,500.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Beef Prices
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
TX/OK Fed Steers
118.94
133.61136.46
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 HiLo '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg 1/10 CME '14/15
Choice Grade
66.09
58.02
60.55
66.47
57.00
59.00
61.00
63.00
65.00
67.00
69.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
Perc
ent
'08-'12 Range '11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg
F.I. Cattle Dressed Weights
778.0
810.0
760.0
770.0
780.0
790.0
800.0
810.0
820.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Poun
d
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
F.I. Cow & Bull Slaughter
160,500
98,600
151,000
96,800
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
Hea
d
'08-'12 Range '11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg
50% Chemical Lean Trimmings
64.45
116.82
90.67
99.89
30.00
50.00
70.00
90.00
110.00
130.00
150.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
90% Chemical Lean Trimmings
219.49
191.11
212.41
216.67
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Beef Stats
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
F.I. Hog Slaughter
1,783.6
2,365.0
1,600.0
1,700.0
1,800.0
1,900.0
2,000.0
2,100.0
2,200.0
2,300.0
2,400.0
2,500.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Tho
usa
nd
He
ad
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
F.I. Pork Production
362.2
500.1
320.0
340.0
360.0
380.0
400.0
420.0
440.0
460.0
480.0
500.0
520.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Mil
lio
n P
ou
nd
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
USDA Pork Composite Cutout
77.40
109.98
83.70
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
pe
r C
WT
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Prior Day Slaughtered Hog Carcass Net Price
74.11
103.88
78.88
78.92
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
pe
r C
WT
'09-'13 HiLo '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg 1/10 CME '14/15
40Lb Feeder Pigs
94.7
45.9
92.3
86.3
16.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
/CW
T
2014 2013 2012 '09-'13 Avg
F.I. Dressed Hog Weights
203.0
213.0
198.0
200.0
202.0
204.0
206.0
208.0
210.0
212.0
214.0
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Poun
d
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
Hog Summary
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
Rib Composite
118.93
155.85
132.90
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Loin Composite
85.10
118.73
90.96
75.00
85.00
95.00
105.00
115.00
125.00
135.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Ham Composite
54.32
90.28
68.99
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Butt Composite
73.82
114.60
93.82
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Picnic Composite
44.96
75.65
69.73
35.00
45.00
55.00
65.00
75.00
85.00
95.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Belly Composite
186.70
102.1899.47
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
72% Lean Trim
49.41
98.16
63.07
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
42% Lean Trim
88.03
29.78
31.49
10.00
30.00
50.00
70.00
90.00
110.00
130.00
1/5
1/19 2/
2
2/16 3/
2
3/16
3/30
4/13
4/27
5/11
5/25 6/
8
6/22 7/
6
7/20 8/
3
8/17
8/31
9/14
9/28
10/1
2
10/2
6
11/9
11/2
3
12/7
12/2
1
USD
per
CW
T
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg
Pork Prices
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
Egg Sets
203,696
185,238
199,427
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Thou
sand
Egg
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
Omaha #2 Yellow Corn
7.620
4.050
5.900
8.280
5.830
7.520
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
1/6
1/20 2/
3
2/17 3/
3
3/17
3/31
4/14
4/28
5/12
5/26 6/
9
6/23 7/
7
7/21 8/
4
8/18 9/
1
9/15
9/29
10/1
3
10/2
7
11/1
0
11/2
4
12/8
12/2
2
USD
/ B
U
2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg CME '13/14
Chicks Placed
168,164
152,902
164,864
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Tho
usa
nd
He
ad
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
48% Soybean Meal
407.010
558.840
302.990
571.120
379.900
272.100
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1/6
1/20 2/
3
2/17 3/
3
3/17
3/31
4/14
4/28
5/12
5/26 6/
9
6/23 7/
7
7/21 8/
4
8/18 9/
1
9/15
9/29
10/1
3
10/2
7
11/1
0
11/2
4
12/8
12/2
2
USD
/ T
on
2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg CBOT '13 CBOT '14
Broiler Slaughter
163,183
120,580
128,712
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
1/4
1/18 2/
1
2/15 3/
1
3/15
3/29
4/12
4/26
5/10
5/24 6/
7
6/21 7/
5
7/19 8/
2
8/16
8/30
9/13
9/27
10/1
1
10/2
5
11/8
11/2
2
12/6
12/2
0
Thou
sand
Hea
d
'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg
12 City Whole Broiler Without Giblets
94.58
98.36
113.53
88.94
79.87
99.57
91.59
77.79
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
12/3
0
1/13
1/27
2/10
2/24
3/10
3/24 4/
7
4/21 5/
5
5/19 6/
2
6/16
6/30
7/14
7/28
8/11
8/25 9/
8
9/22
10/6
10/2
0
11/3
11/1
7
12/1
12/1
5
'14 '13 '12 '09-'13 Avg
Other Indicators & Commodities
JBS USA, LLC
1770 Promontory Circle
Greeley, CO 80634
Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872
Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.
Beef Cold Storage
517,852.0
424,930.0
511,233.0
430,236.0
445,002.0
380,000.0
400,000.0
420,000.0
440,000.0
460,000.0
480,000.0
500,000.0
520,000.0
540,000.0Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Ytd
Avg
Tho
usa
nd
Po
un
d
'11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg
Beef Exports
177.1
264.6
216.1
182.1
230.6
190.1
269.7
159.6
217.6
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg Pork Cold Storage
659,726.0
549,621.0
700,977.0
543,668.0
546,333.0
350,000.0
400,000.0
450,000.0
500,000.0
550,000.0
600,000.0
650,000.0
700,000.0
750,000.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Ytd
Avg
Tho
usa
nd
Po
un
d
'11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg
Pork Exports
394.9
453.2
500.5
398.4
368.7
504.9
366.2
420.3
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg Chicken Cold Storage
574,455.0
676,442.0
617,903.0
720,935.0
500,000.0
550,000.0
600,000.0
650,000.0
700,000.0
750,000.0
800,000.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Ytd
Avg
Tho
usa
nd
Po
un
d
'11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg
Chicken Exports
519.6
675.5
639.6
506.2
649.0
462.4
692.9
501.6
655.0
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Po
un
ds
2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg
Other Indicators & Commodities
Global Market Report NOVEMBER 14, 2013
Skipjack Tuna Over the past few weeks the Western Pacific region has been reporting good catching. Japanese fishing boats are currently reporting a catch volume of 35-40 MT/boat per day. The meantime, Taiwanese and Korean fishing boats reporting
15-20 MT/boat per day. The operation of the Spanish and French fishing boats in Indian Ocean also recovered to 25-30 MT/day per boat. Raw material price has gone down from $2350/MT at its peak in April to $1900 by July-Sept. Due to improved catching and poor demand, raw material pricing has further dropped to the current level of $1700-1750 for early December deliveries. According to reports, Taiwan/Korean vessel days with PNA nations have been
used up and if they wish to further operate in the seas they have to pay $7000
per boat per day to PNA so operational cost will be very much high and boats are returning to port for rest. Also Eastern pacific fish closure (total fish closure means boats cannot sail out to catch) will start soon from November 18th till January 18th so demand from this region is expected to increase. Raw material prices: Bangkok $1700
Philippines $1750 Ecuador $1900
Outlook: Soft
Yellowfin Tuna The ratio of skipjack vs yellowfin has changed to 85:15 in the western Pacific and 75:25 in Indian Ocean. Raw material price $2450-2500 in Bangkok
Outlook: Stable
Tongol Tuna Vietnam’s local catch finishing up earlier than usual this season. Landing is reportedly much lower than the last season. Thailand season is over now. Price $1600/MT. limited availability
Outlook: Stable
Albacore:
Pacific ocean is in its lowest season now with basically no catch. Next season will
not be until March/April. Japan reports low volumes in cold storages. Landing in
Indian Ocean region is also poor. According to reports some trading companies
who concluded volume for national brand are now facing with difficulty to supply
due to poor catching. Traders/suppliers have not been offering for few weeks
already. Raw material is traded in Bangkok at $2500 levels and people foresee
Mitsui Foods, Inc. 35 Maple Street Norwood, NJ 07648
Phone:
1-800-777-2322
Fax: 201-750-0150
We’re on the Web! www.mitsuifoods.com Contact:
Johns P. Thampan [email protected]
PRICE TRENDS: Albacore -Stable
Tongol – Stable Skipjack-soft Yellowfin- Stable Pineapple- Firm
Mushroom- Soft Mandarins: Soft Artichokes: Soft
reduction of supply in the coming months and price may start to bounce
back up
Outlook: Stable
Mushrooms: Since 2012, Import from China has drastically reduced due to continued rejection by FDA for pesticide issues. Meanwhile raw material supply in China has reduced drastically since the beginning of 2013 season. According to Chinese agricultural department data, the planting area for mushrooms has reduced more than 1/3. Corp season in the Northern area is winding up now as weather becomes colder.
Fresh market consumption has increased. Very few offers are being made from China to the US market. Small volumes are available from brine pack. Demand in the US has dropped further. The US market has been focusing mainly on product from Holland.
Outlook: Soft
Pineapple:- It has been already 1.5 months since the winter crop began in Thailand but the raw material supply is still much less than of normal season. Now the fruit price
is 6.2-6.5 BHT/kg and packers facing with challenges to fulfill pending orders concluded since early part of 2013. Chins has been actively looking for sliced pineapple from Thailand but unable to find due to the current shortage. Winter peak may not begin until end November/1st week December. For next summer crop, with pineapple cycle, Fruit supply is forecasted to be less than this year (2013) about 10% due to farmers switching to grow other profitable items. Total tonnage Thailand now is around 6000 MT/day compare to
9000-10,000 per day at same period last year.
Outlook: firm
Tropical Fruit Salad Papaya season is Oct-Dec and will slow down from Jan-April. Guava considers
being a very small crop and harvest period is every other two consecutive months. Since papaya and guava supply consider small compare to the demand of domestic consumption. Therefore, the price is extremely volatile which induces mainly by the domestic consumption/market. The growing area of papaya and guava does go up and down as much as pineapple since it is a tree that can yield fruits for quite a long time and that it has enough domestic consumption to support. Therefore, sometimes the factories have to fight
aggressively against the domestic fresh market. raw material price is around 7.50 baht +/- per kg.
Mandarin Oranges: This year production in China began only during 1st week of November which is a late start compare to a normal year. Factories are not very optimistic about this year due to severe labor shortage. Canneries are unable to recruit enough
workers to arrange for production. The quality of the raw material in Hunan and Hubei provinces are very poor and output will be much lower than expected. With regards to pricing, originally suppliers expected pricing to be weak or similar to last crop due to carry over inventory situation and production forecasts.
However, now suppliers are moving up the offer prices due to labor shortage and raw material quality issues. Many suppliers indicate that they will suffer huge
losses if prices are same as last corp. This year, the total production days will be shorter due to late beginning of crop and early beginning of Chinese new year. Production has to be finished before January 15th latest. The average export quantity of mandarin oranges from China for the past 5 years was about 350,000 Mt per year. Due to the good pricing of 2010-2011 seasons and no carry over inventory, packers become so optimistic and produced about
440,000 MT during 2011-2012. The total production of 2012-2013 was reduced to 280,000 MT; however as per reports the industry still holds about 50,000 Mt of carry over (unsold) inventory from the last crop. US is the largest importer of mandarins from China. Last year the export to US was about 170,000 MT. Japan imports about 50-60,000 Mt and Europe about 50-60,000 Mt. The total export
from china last year was about 340,000 MT. A substantial drop in price happened during the past 18 months due to the over production in 2011-2012.
Spain reports some carryover stock of 3 kg and 11 oz mandarins. New crop will begin late November and expected to be good. However, packers are concerned due to low demand and severe competition from China. Forecast: Soft
Artichokes: Spain continues to sell out good volumes packed during this summer crop and anticipates enough to cover before beginning of the new pack season. Plantations areas are in similar size of last corp. winter pack volume will be dependent on
weather condition. Farmers forecast volumes similar to the last crop as long as weather cooperates. Chile and Peru are close to the finish of the season. Production volume is much lower than the last season. However, prices are lower as needed to be competitive with the softer market in Spain. Some packers say that they are completely sold out but some still have unsold stock.
Outlook:Soft
Olives: No major changes from last report. The harvest
volume for 2013 will be about 499,000 MT, about
8,000 MT less than he previous crop.
In some areas fruit has been affected by high temperatures in August
and fruits are too small for canning and may have to be shipped to
pressing plants. Manzanilla variety has been negatively affected by the
phenomenon called “Veceria” (irregular annual yield). Due to the poor
condition of the trees, the yield will be limited and irregular.
About 40% of the Gordal is of too small size not good for commercial
purpose. Hojiblanca variety appears to be of good quality and yield may
benefited from the autumn rains as it harvesting begins later. Cacerena
variety is positively affected by Veceria phenomenon and its output may
be compensated for the low yield of the previous year. Carrasquena
variety is reportedly in good shape and expects good yield and quality
Outlook: firm
Peaches: As reported earlier, the two major producing countries China and Greece had a very difficult year in terms of raw material situation. The extreme cold weather conditions (hail in Greece and Frost in china) caused reduction in crop by 30-50%
The Dangshan area in China finished their crop by end of August and reported a 30 % crop failure. The northern region has completed their crop during 1st half of September and reported 20% shortage. The average price of raw material was 20% higher than the last season. The domestic consumption is increasing drastically in China. The local market consumes about 70% of the crop. The local
market pays much higher price than the export market. Many packers give first priority to the domestic market. During 2012 season china processed about
600,000MT. The total production of this season is about 400-450,000 MT. During 2012 China exported about 132,000 MT of which US imported 44,000 MT, Japan 37,000MT, Russia bout 13,000 MT the remaining to Australia, Chile, Canada etc. There are about 4-5 peach varieties in China. Of which only 2 varieties are of good color and texture properties (#83 and #19). Suppliers are indicating that 2013 season's production has already been sold out and even if some small volumes available, those may not be of the right variety.
Outlook: Firm
Pears:
As reported earlier, this year has marked as a disastrous year for pears due to extreme low temperatures in the growing areas during the blossoming period. Due to frost conditions about 70% fruits withered and the total fruit output had dropped considerably. Generally only 10% the total output in China goes for canning industry. As the harvest continues and it was holiday season in China,
Canneries are currently receiving the secondary fruit for canning and the raw material price is about 1-1.2Rmb. Per kg. Chinese total export during 2012-2013 was about 50,000Mt. USA imported 21,000MT, Europe about 15,000, Thailand 5,300 Mt and Japan 2,600 MT. The industry reports no carryover stock in China from the last season. Currently the finished goods pricing is about 20-25% higher than the last season
Outlook: Firm
Apricots: No major changes from the last report. Spain reported a good production season for pulp but very little for canned due to soft texture issues. In China in the
beginning of the season, packers thought the harvest would be abundant, so they quoted with low prices. But in fact the supply was much less than expectation and price of raw material firmed up drastically. Some suppliers claim
that they suffer huge losses as they made commitments earlier predicating low
raw material prices. The total export from China to the US is not significant. Majority of Chinese production goes to Europe. Chinese canneries were focusing on 14-18 brix for light syrup pack in the past However, next season onwards they plan to increase the brix level to conform to USDA specs of 16-21 brix. This will result in some cost increase
Outlook: firm
Fruit Cocktail:
Major portion of fruit cocktail production is done between September and
March (during the availability of pears). Most packers produce during this
period based on firm commitments. There may be some year round
production but packers use the highest volume of ingredients namely
peaches and pears from frozen raw material. In the past the industry
used to use diced peaches and pears from canned raw material.
However, due to high cost of canning, they have moved to frozen raw
material. The main problem for using frozen raw material is the product
become very soft after further throwing and canning.
Due to the shortage of peaches and pears the present price of fruit
cocktail is 15-20% higher than the last season.
The total fruit cocktail export from China during 2012 was about
59,000MT. (US 17,000MT, Europe 15,000MT and Canada 7,000MT)
Outlook: Firm
Coconut Products–
Thailand is having major shortage situation on coconut due to hot weather and damages caused by bugs. Thai packers are now collecting raw material from Indonesia. But the availability from Indonesia is also limited as their plantations
were also affected by weather and bug issues. Philippines, India and Srilanka are also reporting the same. The market price has already move up by 20-25% Thai canneries are now struggling to fulfill their pending commitments. Next season will start in April 2014 Outlook: Firm
Baby Corn- It is off season in Thailand now. Also as reported earlier, there weren’t much recovery in supply even during the last harvest season either. The standard 150-
180 count corn is still very limited. Most of the packers are fully occupied with pending orders and may not be in a position to offer till beginning of 2014. Outlook: firm/severe shortage
Peppers and Pimientos
Production in Spain has over now. Price of raw material was higher than the last
season due to high demand from fresh market. New crop price is about 10-15%
higher than last crop. Peru is now producing some small volumes. Their season begins in January/February. They anticipate normal production volume this year. Chile produces small volumes but price is higher than last crop season. Outlook: firm
Water chestnuts:
According to reports due to high labor cost and low profits, many farmers have
reduced their plantation area for water chestnuts and changed to other profitable agricultural products. The recent reports from the Farmers Association in the growing areas, the reduction in growing acreage is about 20-30% compare to the last season. Usually by early No Sowing for 2013-2014 started in July. However, according to reports due to high labor cost and low profits, many farmers have reduced their plantation area for water chestnuts and changed to other profitable agricultural products. The recent reports from the Farmers Association in the
growing areas, the reduction in growing acreage is about 20-30% compare to the last season. Usually by early November, canneries will start offering. This year due to severe labor shortage and increase in cost of production, many canneries are reluctant to make offers. The starting of the season is expected to be delayed.
During 2011-2012 seasons, china exported approx. 40,000 Mt of water
chestnuts. However, the export volume has dropped by 20% during 2012-2013 seasons. The main reasons for such reduction was due to farmers’ efforts to concentrate more on domestic market by leaving water chestnuts to grow into larger size and get more yield for domestic fresh/frozen market. Production of canned water chestnut (especially a10 size) was reduced due to labor shortage. Canneries could not find skilled workers for peeling at the right time also wages
were increased considerably. Price of finished products increased by 30% over the past 6 months and currently there are no stocks available in China until new season begins. Outlook: Firm
The opinions expressed here are an interpretation of the current commodity markets. They are not recommendations or future guarantees of performance in specific commodity markets. Trinidad
Benham is not responsible for any damage or losses as a result of this information. January 13, 2014
December 2013 Bean and Rice Market Update BEAN MARKET UPDATE:
The USDA issued the final 2013 production numbers on January 10th. Little change was noted in all dry bean classes.
The pinto market remains quiet with limited additional demand from domestic or foreign markets. Prices have remained
mostly steady with limited market definition. Farmers continue to hold inventories; placing little pressure on the market from
the supply side. Demand is lackluster at current price levels. The large crop in Mexico is weighing on the overall pinto market.
Great northern beans remain extremely firm as all inventories are committed. Demand continues to need white beans, and
substitution is driving prices higher for navy beans. Argentina’s weather has stayed warm and dry and forecasts call for this
trend to continue which may affect new crop potential. Argentina needs additional rainfall prior to dry bean planting (late
February—early March) in order to yield alubias.
The navy bean market has reacted to substitution for great northerns. The market is extremely firm and prices continue to
appreciate.
Light red kidney and dark red kidney markets are very firm with limited availability, with inventories picked over and little
carryover available. Most available supplies have been committed for the marketing year. Dark red kidneys are not available
from North America as all harvested supplies have been committed. Kidney beans remain extremely tight due to extremely
strong world demand. Limited extra inventories are available for the balance of the marketing year.
California varieties remain quiet as supply is matched with demand. Baby and large lima markets are firm due to limited
supply and strong demand for white beans. Water concerns remain ahead of spring planting.
Grain markets are the focus as farmers debate planting options for next year. Corn, soybeans and wheat are soft after near-
record harvests. Although strong demand from export markets had been noted due to the cheaper values, traders worry that
some of the sales will be switched to cheaper origins like South America. Market conditions today favor dry bean acres and
seed sales are optimistic.
The USDA will issue the first glimpse of growers’ seeding intentions with the Planting Intention Report, published March 31st.
RICE MARKET UPDATE:
The long grain rice market remains steady with supply matched to demand. Lack of additional export demand continues to
keep milling capacity underutilized. Paddy values to growers are still competitive versus new crop soybeans.
Imported rice (Basmati, Jasmine) continue to face supply chain challenges. Basmati and Jasmine values have appreciated due
to exchange rates and government to government business transactions
The December WASDE report lowered global total supplies of rice for 13/14. Global rice consumption is at record levels.
World ending stocks are slightly lower than both last month and last year.
January 14, 2014 To: Producers Rice Customers and Food Brokers From: Gary Reifeiss, Producers Rice Mill, Inc. Subject: Rice Market Update: 2014 Outlook
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2,751
2,200
2,063
2,365
2,290
2,841
1,794
1,994
1,780
Down 11%
U.S. LONG GRAIN ACRES PLANTED(in thousands of acres)
2014/2015 Expectations We are currently in the mid-year slump: post-harvest and too early to begin planting for next year’s crop. The expectation is that the industry will be extremely tight on rice near the end of this year’s rice crop (May, June, July). Carry over reserves were largely depleted with the short 2011 &12 crops adding to the inventory pressure of this year’s crop. With more than 70% of the rice crop sold at the farm level, the remaining farm supply seems to be waiting for higher prices. One fundamental that has held rice prices in check is lower than expected exports. A return to normal export demand should have a firming affect on prices. If exports continue to remain soft, expect prices to remain constant. The upcoming 2014/2015 crop may be quite different. Speculation among officials in the Mid-South (primarily Arkansas), indicates the 2014 rice acreage will increase significantly from this year’s crop. Competitive crop prices, from primarily corn and soybeans, took a dramatic drop this past year which could drive the potential rebound in 2014 rice acreage planted. Farmers are expected to switch some of the lost acreage back into rice.
In Summary As we move into the second quarter of 2014 and the early depleting of this year’s historically short crop, rice prices will largely depend on export demand. A continuation of the soft export market will have a balancing affect on the short crop. However, a return to normal export demand coupled with a constant domestic demand will apply pressure to the crop inventory and could drive prices upwards. Stay tuned, time will tell. The best bet is that prices should not fall through the balance of this crop year.
Last Year in Review This past harvest, as you may recall, was the second shortest long grain rice crop in nine years, and possibly even further back than that, down 11% from the previous year. However, mild summer temperatures in the South may be credited for significant improvements in field yields and milling quality. We’ve seen very little movement in pricing all year long, largely due to light export demand.
Market Watch . . . . . . .
Market Watch
January 17, 2014
Market Watch . . . . . . .
• Tightness in the meal market continues to pressure oil prices.
Soybean Oil
• Argentina remains hot and dry. • About 2% of the crop in Mato Grosso has been harvested.
Impressive yields between 54-58 bags per hectare have been reported.
• Abiove upped their estimate of the Brazilian crop 1 million tonnes to 87.6.
• Hot, wet weather has led to an increase of Asian rust in Goias, Brazil.
Crop Updates
Expected Value Range $35.50 - $37.50 cash
Soybean Oil Market Pricing Trend
Value Ranges *
The information above reflects the current opinion of Stratas Foods but does not represent a guarantee of future market conditions. All final oil booking decisions should be made by the end customer and not Stratas Foods.
* Value ranges represent good booking levels if the market dips into this range
Prices are near the level where it becomes feasible to burn soyoil for energy. Unless heating oil prices fall, downside risk could be limited.
Favorable South American weather and talk of higher 2014 US supply pressured prices.
The firm meal market and meal/oil spreading led to declines in soyoil.
Misc. Influences Impact
Key Factors Recent Trend
January 17, 2014
Bearish Bullish Neutral
• December 1 US stocks were reported at 2.148 billion bushels, 18 million below expectations. World stocks were 72.33 million tonnes vs. 70.62 million last month and expectations for 71.53.
• Brazilian bean exports for December were 41.4 thousand tonnes, down from 647.9 in November and 135.0 in 2012. Oil exports were down slightly from November but were more than double 2012’s levels.
• Weekly US export inspections were 59 million bushels vs. 41 last year. China took 43.6 million or 73%.
• US markets will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
• December NOPA crush was a record 165.4 million bushels vs. 159.9 last year. Oil stocks were higher than expected at 1897 million pounds vs. 1847 last month and 1865 in 2012.
Flash Summary
35.00
38.00
41.00
44.00
47.00
50.00
Cen
ts p
er
Lb
.
Market Watch . . . . . . .
• Corn prices rallied on lower than expected production and stocks from the USDA.
Corn Oil
• China’s crop was estimated at a record 217 million tonnes. • Brazil’s weather remains favorable. Southwest Argentina
could use some rain. USDA lowered their forecast of the Argentine crop from 26 MMT to 25 but some feel 23 is more realistic.
Crop Updates
Expected Value Range $38.00 - $40.00 cash
Corn Oil Market Pricing Trend
Value Ranges *
The information above reflects the current opinion of Stratas Foods but does not represent a guarantee of future market conditions. All final oil booking decisions should be made by the end customer and not Stratas Foods.
* Value ranges represent good booking levels if the market dips into this range
Misc. Influences Impact
Key Factors Recent Trend
• December 1 US stocks were reported at 10.426 billion bushels, 364 million bushels below expectations. World ending stocks were 160.23 million tonnes, lower then the expected 163.2
• Chinese imports were reduced from 7 million tonnes to 5 million. However, they did renew several expired import certificats for various strains of biotech corn.
• Census corn oil exports for November were 139.9 million pounds, up from 87.5 million pounds last year.
• Goldman Sachs raised their 3 and 6 month corn price from $4.00 to $4.25.
• 137,000 MT of the corn rejected from China was sold to South Korea. There is talk that US corn is being diverted to Spain and Portugal.
• Weekly US export inspections were 20.9 million bushels vs. 9.6 last year.
• Ethanol production was down from last week but above last year. Stocks are down. Margins are positive, but lower.
Flash Summary
Bearish Bullish Neutral
Logistics issues provided support for nearby prices
Fully refined corn oil values are up slightly on tighter supplies.
Lack of South American competition should help US exports in the next several months.
January 17, 2014
39.00
40.00
41.00
42.00
43.00
44.00
45.00
Cen
ts p
er
Lb
.
Market Watch . . . . . . .
• Lack of fresh fundamental data resulted in choppy, two-sided trade.
Canola/Rapeseed Oil
• A climate research group believes Australia could see future heat waves that surpass what they are currently experiencing.
Crop Updates
Expected Value Range $41.00 - $43.00 cash
Canola Oil Market Pricing Trend
Value Ranges *
The information above reflects the current opinion of Stratas Foods but does not represent a guarantee of future market conditions. All final oil booking decisions should be made by the end customer and not Stratas Foods.
* Value ranges represent good booking levels if the market dips into this range
Misc. Influences Impact
Key Factors Recent Trend
• Census canola oil imports for November were 120.1 thousand tonnes vs. 105.5 thousand last year.
• COPA crush for the week ending January 8th was unchanged at 134 TMT. Crush in the same week last year was 142 TMT. Cumulative crush for the crop year is 2.95 MMT vs. 3.19 last year.
• ICE canola futures reached new contract lows this week. • Traders in Canada are reporting that they are still 15,000
cars behind on orders. This is about a 7-10 week backlog but could take until the fall to be completely cleared.
• Specs in Winnipeg are very short. A short covering rally is possible. The question is when. Trade has been light which adds to volatility.
• There is currently a bearish technical bias. • Canola is cheap compared with most other oilseeds which
kept a floor under prices. • There are willing buyers at current prices, but forward
sales are minimal due to the backlog of railcars in Western Canada.
Flash Summary
Bearish Bullish Neutral
Logistics issues are slowing crush as they don’t have cars to move product.
A stronger Canadian dollar and spillover pressure from the CBOT soy complex undermined values.
The large crop continues to limit the upside potential.
January 17, 2014
44.00
47.00
50.00
53.00
56.00
59.00
Cen
ts p
er
Lb
.
Market Watch . . . . . . .
• Higher stocks and lower exports put pressure on palm oil prices.
Tropical Oils
• Malaysian CPKO production in December was down 2.19% to 213,556 MT. Kernel output fell 8.94% to 426,171 MT.
• January CPO production in Malaysia is estimated between 1.432 and 1.451 MMT.
• Indonesian CPO production was 2.582 MMT in December with January expected to be 2.324 MMT.
• Copra production in Indonesia remains strong. However, early harvesting could cause problems later this year.
• Flooding in northern Mindanao has caused some logistical issues
Crop Updates Palm and Coconut Oil Market Pricing Trends
The information above reflects the current opinion of Stratas Foods but does not represent a guarantee of future market conditions. All final oil booking decisions should be made by the end customer and not Stratas Foods.
Misc. Influences Impact
Key Factors Recent Trend
Bearish Bullish Neutral
Strong South American production and weak crude prices added to the bearish tone in the market.
A rally in the Malaysian Ringgit made palm oil exports less competitive.
The secrecy around the second Pertamina tender is causing rumors to fly.
January 17, 2014
Flash Summary
• Malaysian PKO stocks at the end of December were 290,505 MT, down 2.63% from November and 38% lower than last year. Exports were 2.29% higher at 101,201 MT.
• Imports of palm olein into the PI have grown to around 30,000 MT per month due to the discount to coconut oil.
• Copra crush capacity utilization in the PI is below 30%. • There has been talk that the change in the 2% mandate in
the PI could be delayed. • Coconut oil stocks have been described as “getting to the
bottom of the barrel.” • January 1-10 exports of palm oil from Malaysia were
reported 22% lower by SGS and 21% lower by ITS. January 1-15 exports were down sharply, coming in at 28% and 27%.
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
Cen
ts p
er
Lb
.
Palm Olein Coconut