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HO CHI MINH CITY WEDNESDAY, 4 JANUARY 2017 MARKET INSIGHT

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Page 1: MARKET INSIGHT - Viet Nam Supply Chainvietnamsupplychain.com/assets/images/files/170101 Q4 2016 HCMC... · ho chi minh city wednesday, 4 january 2017 market insight . q 4 2 0 1 6

HO CHI MINH CITY

WEDNESDAY, 4 JANUARY 2017

MARKET INSIGHT

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Vietnam Economy

Agenda

Infrastructure

Condominium

Ready-built Villa/Townhouse

Office

Retail

Investment

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

1. VIETNAM ECONOMY

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Vietnam Economy

Forget TPP, The Focus is

now on RCEP

V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Major Asset Classes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec

2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex

Government Bond VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND Crude Oil

Source: HNC, Gold.org, SJC, SBV

V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

64% 8% 7%

21%

Manufacturing

Automobiles,Motorbikes

Real Estate

Others

FDI Reached a New High

25%

75%

Real estate

Others2007 2016

1. Cayman Islands invested US$315 million for an IP project in

Quang Ninh Province.

2. Long Thanh Amata City in Dong Nai received ~US$309

million from Thai Investor to build a service township

3. Samsung to invest US$300 million in a 21-storey building in

Hanoi.

4. TNR Holdings and a Russian partner signed the memo

regarding implement a US$300 million project in Hanoi.

Vietnam Registered FDI in 2016: USD24.4 billion (the highest since 2008)

Top FDI Investors, USD million, 2016 Major Real Estate Deals, 2016

7,036

2,590

2,419

1,875

1,860

South Korea

Japan

Singapore

China

Taiwan

V I E T N A M E C O N O M Y

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

2. INFRASTRUCTURE MORE INVESTMENT IN TAN SON NHAT AIRPORT, THE EAST AND THE SOUTH

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Tan Son Nhat – Binh Loi –

Ring Road

5 storeys parking in

Tan Son Nhat airport

9,000 sm T2 terminal expansion

Tan Son Nhat

Airport Metro Line no.1 – Saigon bridge

Ca Cam Bridge

New Mien Dong bus station

project

East area

South area

H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

New Projects in 2017

En-Parking Lam Son

Lam Son Square, District 1

Site area: 1,410 sm

Storey: 9 floors

Car park: 168

Bach Dang Marina park

Ton Duc Thang street,

District 1

Site Area: 7.02 ha

Elevated road no.1

Route: Cong Hoa Intersection

– Dien Bien Phu

Length: 9.5km

Width: 17.5m

Investment: US$800 million

Metro route leading to Tan Son

Nhat International Airport

Route: Hoang Van Thu–

Airport

Length: 2km

Construction: 2019-2024

Investment: US$250 million

H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Metro Line No. 1 Update

1 Under construction

2 3 4 5 6 Under planning

Suoi Tien Station SHTP Station

Opera House Station Ben Thanh Station

An Phu Station Tan Cang Station

H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Airports

HCMC - 9,000 sm T2 terminal

expansion

Hai Phong – New Terminal Da Nang – International Terminal

under construction

Dong Nai – 3 new designs for

Long Thanh International Airport

Source: Retrieve on Internet on January, 2016

H C M C I N F R A S T R U C T U R E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

3. CONDOMINIUM

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

NEW LAUNCH

37,419 units

10% y-o-y

• 46% mid-end, 29% high-end, xx% affordable

• 41% in the East, 34% in the South

Source: CBRE Research

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

• More balanced market: mid-end products accounted for 47% of total launch and 44% of total sales in

2016 (compared to 40% and 39% respectively in 2015).

• A small price adjustment: 4.6% y-o-y increase

• A good mixture of buyers: both end-users and investors, both local and foreign

Market Snapshot

9,145 units

34% q-o-q

33% y-o-y

2016 Q4/2016

NEW SALES

35,008 units

4%

y-o-y

11,941 units

11% y-o-y

2016 Q4/2016

52% q-o-q

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Mid-end segment is advancing, easing high-end oversupply fear

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Source: CBRE Research

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Un

its

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016

Luxury High-end

Mid-end Affordable

36% 40% 47%

NEW LAUNCH BY MARKET SHARE

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

North 7%

East 41% West

11% Central

8%

South

34%

The East and the South continued to take the lead

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

2016 NEW LAUNCH BY AREA 2016 NEW LAUNCH BY DISTRICT

D8 16%

Binh Thanh 12%

D7 12%

D2 11%

D9 11%

D1 7%

Others 31%

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

No

. o

f S

old

Un

its

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Improvement in sales due to strong demand from both end-users and

investors

SOLD UNITS BY YEAR

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2014 2015 2016

Units

New Launches Sold Units

SUPPLY vs SOLD UNIT - SMALLER GAP

Source: CBRE Research

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unsold

Units

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

9% 21%

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Improving absorption rate led to slower growth in inventory

ACCUMULATIVE INVENTORIES NET ABSORPTION RATE (*)

Source: CBRE Research

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net

Absorp

tion R

ate

(%

)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

(*) Net Absorption Rate = Sold units in the period/ (Unsold units in the period + New launches in the period)

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

~68.6% of new

launches sold

No. of Project Sold rate (%)

1

44

9

50

7

53

14

62

6

48

3

72

4

48

4

69

3

32

9

57

3

42

5

53

11

70

3

65

2

42

9

73

1

88

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Sales took place across all districts

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016

Pe

rcen

tage

ch

an

ge

(%

)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Large supply keeps price in check. The market is far from bubble

CHANGE IN PRIMARY SELLING PRICE

Source: CBRE Research

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Government policies remain polarized

The government’s focus will be on protecting buyers and boosting the lower end segment while curbing

property bubbles in the higher end segment.

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016

H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

• The market continues to welcome a big wave of supply, it will however swift toward a more affordable

market.

Market Outlook

FORECAST ON SUPPLY

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Ne

w la

un

ch s

upp

ly (

units)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Market Outlook (cont’d)

• In 2017, the price growth will mostly come from new top-tier projects at very prime locations, leading to an

increase of 5-10% for luxury and high-end segment.

• The price for mid-end and affordable segment will be stable as these markets target at end-users and

affordability will be the key issue.

FORECAST ON PRIMARY SELLING PRICE

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Pe

rce

nta

ge

ch

an

ge

(%

)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T H C M C C O N D O M I N I U M

Market Outlook (cont’d)

• The luxury and high-end market likely see a small drop in absorption rate in 2017 as buyers need time to

get familiar with a higher price level while the mid-end and affordable market continue to have a good

absorption.

FORECAST ON SOLD UNITS AND ABSORPTION

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

So

ld u

nits

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable Absorption

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

4. LANDED PROPERTY READY-BUILT VILLA AND TOWNHOUSE

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Market Snapshot

LaVila

In Nha Be District

238 units

~US$1,506/sm

The Pegasuite

In District 8

69 units

~US$3,768/sm

Merita Khang Dien

In District 9

131 units

Soft launch

River Park

In District 9

176 units

Soft launch

H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E

• Most of 2016 new launches were from large-scale townships. • Stable absorption from both end-users and investors. • Price increased the most at suburban districts.

NEW LAUNCH IN Q4 2016

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

3,062

307

2,599

756

2016

Q4 2016

Launches Sales

0

500

1,000

1,500

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Ne

w S

upp

ly (

units)

2014 2015 2016

North 38%

East 44%

West 2%

Central

2%

South

14% -36% q-o-q

45% q-o-q

+40% y-o-y

H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E

Active New Supply, Especially in The East

+13% y-o-y

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Flat selling price

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016

Ave

rag

e a

skin

g p

rice

(U

S$

/lan

d s

m)

District 2 District 9 District 7 Others

US$ 3,145 US$ 1,697

10.1%

-2.7%

US$ 3,846

District 2 District 9 District 7 Others

Average selling price (y-o-y)

2.4%

6.5%

US$ 3,075 (*) (*): excl. District 1

H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Developers move further from CBD

• District 9 running out of cheap, good land

bank

• Developers move far East and South

• More townhouses of lower prices to be

developed

• Some developers tend to develop ready-

built houses instead of land plots

North

East

West

Central

South

H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Market Outlook

H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E

• Limited good location land bank.

• Future supply to be spread in different districts.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Ne

w S

upp

ly (

units)

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

FORECAST ON SUPPLY

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Ave

rag

e S

elli

ng

Price

(U

SD

/la

nd

sm

)

District 2 District 9 District 7 Others

Market Outlook

H C M C R E A D Y - B U I L T V I L L A A N D T O W N H O U S E

• Price expected to increase amid growing preference from buyers on landed properties

• Net absorption is expected to reach 60-65% for each year.

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

FORECAST ON PRIMARY SELLING PRICE

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

5. OFFICE

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Asking Rents

Grade A

1.7 %

q-o-q

• 46% mid-end, 29% high-end, xx% affordable

• 41% in the East, 34% in the South

Source: CBRE Research

H C M C O F F I C E

• Limited supply is recorded in CBD area as demand for these spaces continues to rise. • Grade A and Grade B both recorded a healthy net absorption (2,116 sm NLA and 13,092 sm NLA,

respectively). • Co-working Spaces and Business Centers are on the rise, with older buildings maximizing old retail

podiums to be turned into co-working spaces.

Market Snapshot

Grade B

5.4%

q-o-q Vacancy Rates

Grade A

0.3 ppts

q-o-q

Grade B

0 ppts

q-o-q

5.9%

y-o-y 6.2%

y-o-y

0.7 ppts

y-o-y

1.8 ppts

y-o-y

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Only two projects: Mapletree Business Center (District 7;30,000 sm GFA) & Ha Do (Tan Binh District; 14,000 sm GFA)

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A s

m)

Grade A Grade B

H C M C O F F I C E

Limited Supply in 2016

OFFICE SUPPLY BY YEAR

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Incoming wave of Grade A Future Supply

Grade A CBD constructions to restart after a long time of being inactive, notably with SJC tower and Tax Center

H C M C O F F I C E

SAIGON CENTER P2

CBD

GFA: 40,000 sm

VIETTEL TRADE

CENTER

Non-CBD

GFA: 65,971 sm

ETOWN

CENTRAL

Non-CBD

GFA: 67,760 sm

2017

SPIRIT

OF SAIGON

CBD

GFA: 15,000 sm

Grade B

DEUTSCHES

HAUS

CBD

GFA: 38,621 sm

2020

Grade A

SJC TOWER

CBD

GFA: 38,000 sm

TAX CENTER

CBD

GFA: 35,000 sm

2018 - 2019

SAIGON M&C

CBD

GFA: 49,000

sm

Grade A

VIET CAPITAL

CENTER

CBD

GFA: 38,621

sm

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Overall Asking Rent increase y-o-y

Grade A

US$ 38.0

Grade B

US$ 21.0

Grade A: Upcoming new supply lowered average rent q-o-q

Grade B: Stable rental growth

+6.2%

Y-o-Y

+5.9 %

Y-o-Y

-1.7%

Q-o-Q

+5.4%

Q-o-Q

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

ASKING RENT BY YEAR

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40

2016

Q4

Q3

Q2

2015

Q1

Q4

Q3

2014

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

Grade B Grade A

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Vacancy Rate decreases slightly, Net Absorption remains low

Q4 2016 Net absorption (Grade A + B) = 1,191 sm

Vacancy remains stable as the market absorbs the

remaining limited supply

Net Absorption:

-99%y-o-y

Vacancy:

-1.8 ppts y-o-y

Net Absorption:

-77% y-o-y

Vacancy:

- 0.7 ppts y-o-y

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016

Va

can

cy R

ate

Ne

t A

bsorp

tion

(

NL

A s

m)

Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B

Vacancy Rate - Grade A Vacancy Rate - Grade B

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

OFFICE PERFORMANCE BY QUARTER

Grade A Grade B

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Demand drivers continue the same trend

Banking/Insurance IT/Technology Pharmaceuticals

• High demand still comes from traditional sectors. • Tenants still display the same trend of looking forwards to moving into newer, better quality within CBD. • IT/Technology tenants has displayed a preference towards decentralized, campus style hub.

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Opportunities abound for the market

Ongoing Supply

• Excess supply coming from CBD and Non-CBD area

• Rents are expected to become more competitive

• Higher demand still comes for CBD

Flight to value

• Big occupiers to relocate and expand to higher quality buildings

Diversified Demand

• High demand from traditional sectors

• Start-up boom: Growth of co-working space

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

10 Existing Co-working Spaces and More to Come

Toong – Coming soon to Oxygen Mall in Vista An Phu

DreamPlex

US$27 – 90/ monthly pass

BigWork

US$95 monthly pass

WORK Saigon

US$356/ month/ private room Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Market Outlook

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F 2018 F 2019 F

Gra

de

A S

upp

ly (

NL

A, sm

)

• Older Grade A building is expected to see a shift of tenants as tenants flock to newer Grade A buildings.

• Grade B supply in both CBD and non-CBD is also expected to increase and provide more spaces into the market.

No N

ew

Su

pp

ly

No N

ew

Su

pp

ly

No N

ew

Su

pp

ly

No N

ew

Su

pp

ly

FORECAST ON SUPPLY

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016 Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

H C M C O F F I C E

• Grade A asking rent is expected to have a gradual increase as the new supply comes steadily each year.

• Because of the excess supply, vacancy rate may increase and then becoming stable as the market gradually absorb the new spaces.

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Va

can

cy R

ate

(%

)

Re

nt (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rent Vacancy Rate

Market Outlook

FORECAST ON PERFORMANCE

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

6. RETAIL

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

• 2016 welcomed the highest new annual supply in history, most in non-CBD areas. • Improvement in vacancy rate supported by stable rental rate in non-CBD areas. • Tenant mix was driven toward true customers’ demand.

H C M C R E T A I L

Market Snapshot

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ne

w S

upp

ly (

sm

)

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016.

RETAIL SUPPLY BY YEAR

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Tax Plaza • District 1

• GFA: 34,000 sm

• Completion: 2020

Crescent Mall (P2) • District 7

• GFA: 18,000 sm

• Completion: 2018

Food Square • Tan Phu District

• GFA: 1,000 sm

• Completion: 2017

Garden Mall

(Thuan Kieu Plaza)

• District 5

• GFA: 19,200 sm

• Completion: 2018

Taka Plaza @ 23/9 Park • District 1

• 250 kiosks

• Completion: 2017

Q4 2016 – no new supply but busy construction activities

H C M C R E T A I L

Vincom Plaza

Le Van Viet

•District 9

•53,000 sm GFA

Vincom Plaza

Go Vap

•Go Vap District

•28,000 sm GFA

LotteMart Go Vap

•Go Vap District

•32,000 sm GFA

Aeon Mall

Binh Tan

•Binh Tan District

•114,000 sm GFA

Saigon Centre

Phase 2

•District 1

•50,000 sm GFA

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q1 2016

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Map of Significant Future Supply

Estella Heights

• Hanoi Highway

• 26,000 sm NLA

• To open in 2018

Tax Center

• Le Loi –

Nguyen Hue

Str.

• 35,000 sm GFA

• To open in

2020

Vincom Center Mall

• Tan Cang, BT

Dist.

• 59,000 sm NLA

• To open in end

2017

Union Square

• Dong Khoi Str.

• 40,000 sm GFA

• To open in

2017

The Spirit of Saigon

• Pham Ngu Lao Str.

• 48,000 sm GFA

• To open in 2018

H C M C R E T A I L

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Improvement in vacancy rate

H C M C R E T A I L

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016

Va

ca

ncy R

ate

(%

)

Ne

t A

bsorp

tion

(sm

)

Net absorption Vacancy rate

-0.5% q-o-q

-1.8% y-o-y

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.

NET ABSORPTION AND VACANCY RATE

𝑽𝒂𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 Q4/2016

• Low net absorption in Q4 due to limited supply • Improvement in vacancy rate seen majorly in retail podiums (Vista Walk in D2)

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Retail rents

0 100 200050100150

CBD Non-CBD

H C M C R E T A I L

1.7% q-o-q

15% y-o-y

𝑪𝑩𝑫

1.2% q-o-q

0.1% y-o-y

𝑵𝒐𝒏 − 𝑪𝑩𝑫

2016

Q4

Q3

Q2

2015

Q1

Q4

Q3

2014

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

ASKING RENT (US$ per NLA sm on ground and first floor, excl. tax and service charge)

• CBD areas recorded the strongest rate of growth as a number of new leases were signed by international retailers and space in these areas remained limited

• Landlords in non-CBD malls maintain rents flat in and effort to retain existing tenants and attract new tenants amid increasing supply in these areas

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

Expansion of bazaar and convenience stores due to strong consumer

demand for F&B and necessities

Rubik Zoo

District 1

Oxygen Mall

District 2

Vingroup introduced Vincom+

Taka Plaza @ 23/9 Park

District 1

Food Square

Tan Phu District

H C M C R E T A I L

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.

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Growing spending following Vietnam’s receptivity of international

shopping trends

Vietnam:

20% use phones to shops.

30% shop online in 2020.

Source: Nielsen Research, 2015

H C M C R E T A I L

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Ne

w S

upp

ly (

NL

A, sm

)

Market Outlook

H C M C R E T A I L

• The development pipeline remains considerable with 500,000 sm NLA to be added in the next three years, mostly in 2017 and 2018.

• Shopping centres and retail podiums are the major future supply

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.

FORECAST ON SUPPLY

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Va

can

cy R

ate

(%

)

Re

nt (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rent Vacancy Rate

Market Outlook (cont’)

H C M C R E T A I L

• Rents will see a marginal drop due to anticipated new openings in non-CBD areas during 2017-2018 and recover in 2019 with new supply coming online in CBD area.

• A small increase in the vacancy rate in 2017 due to new supply before gradually being absorbed afterwards

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.

FORECAST ON PERFORMANCE

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Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

7. INVESTMENT

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Major Inves tment Dea l s in Q4 2016

Sofitel Legend Metropole

Hotel Hanoi

VINACAPITAL VIETNAM OPPORTUNITY FUND LIMITED

►► JV BETWEEN VINACAPITAL AND WARBURG PINCUS LLC

@ 50% STAKE US$ 100 MIL.

364-KEY HOTEL

Hanoi

Casuarina Cove

Vietnam

KEPPEL LAND

►►HUNG PHU RE INV.

60% STAKE @ US$ 24.1 MIL.

120 VILLAS

HCMC

Riviera Cove

HUNG PHU RE INV.

►►KEPPEL LAND

40% STAKE @ US$ 14.5 MIL.

96 VILLA

HCMC

I N V E S T M E N T

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Major Inves tment Dea l s in Q4 2016

I N V E S T M E N T

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Inves tment Dea l s in 2016

Hanoi

US$310 million

US$502 million

HOTEL AND DVELOPMENT SITES PLAY KEY ROLE

Size of the circle represents total transaction value in 2016

I N V E S T M E N T

33%

21%

24%

14%

4% 4%

Hotel

Development site

Mixed-use

Office

Retail

Others

Pink: 2016 trasaction value

Grey: 2015 transaction value

Ho Chi Minh City

US$ 493 million

US$294 million

Other province

US$ 84 million

US$307 million

Source: RCA, retrieved in 3 January 2017.

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Thank You

Q 4 2 0 1 6 M A R K E T I N S I G H T

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All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T +84 8 3824 6125

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Email: [email protected]