market data 1&2.docx

8/18/2019 Market Data 1&2.docx

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Market Assessment Production

Synthetic methanol for many years has been one of the most economically and technicallystable organic chemicals. This stability has been due to a steadily growing volume and diversityof applications and to a well-established, low cost method of production. Commercial processes,until recently, have been basically similar, and only slightly different from the first synthesisdeveloped in 192.

!ethanol, following a period of high demand during the mid-199"s, is currently inoversupply. This earlier demand was primarily driven by the growing acceptance of a ma#ormethanol derivative in reformulated gasoline and methyl tertiary-butyl ether $!T%&'. Thematurity of this mar(et coupled with the largest consumption by formaldehyde production.)ormaldehyde is used primarily to produce adhesives for the manufacture of various construction board products. *lus, with growing political controversy over the environmental acceptability of!T%& is a factor in reducing the demand.

+espite this falloff in demand and relatively depressed price levels, producers continue toannounce plans for ma#or new production facilities in regions containing large reserves of lowcost natural gas. This improved production efficiency coupled with mega plant economies ofscale and the relative ease of transport may reduce the delivered cost of methanol sufficiently to be competitive with conventional fuels in certain applications. vast new mar(et for low costfuel grade methanol appears to be imminent, possibly along with new mar(ets as a feedstoc( forolefins and gasoline production. )igure 1 below shows the world consumption of methanol.China is the largest producer of methanol, yet there are still considered as importer. +ue to theirlarge consumption.

Figure 1 : World Consumption of Methanol-2008, IHS, 201


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Current And Future Prices

!ost methanol traded outside of China is produced from natural gas in large facilities withoutputs over 2"""td. Some recent operations, often referred to as !ega-!ethanol1, have

capacities in e/cess of 0"""td. ere is a simple analysis of traded prices based on the publishedspot prices as reported by &uropean Chemical ews and 3C3S Chemical %usiness from 1949 to2"12.

The historical chart below clearly illustrates the business cycle nature of the mar(et. The low points in the cycle are about 51""t and this level has persisted in the past for several years,though not in recent times. t times of shortage, the price can escalate rapidly to 50""t or more.Since 2""2, there has been a general rise in the base price from about 52""t to the 2"12 value of about 50"t.

Figure 2 : Methanol !ri"e #rends, $un"an Seddon 201%

As for the current prices from the data obtained


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Figure % : Current &egional !ri"es of Methanol, Methane' Mar"h 201(

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