maritime policy review€¦ · 6/2/2020 · salman javed khalid rehman editorial board...

Maritime Policy Review Winter 2020

Volume 1, Number 1

Patron-in-Chief

Dr. Syed Mohammad Anwer

Editor

Hafiz Inam

Maritime Study Forum, Islamabad

Maritime Policy Review © Mari�me Study Forum

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Maritime Policy Review

A publication of Maritime Study Forum, Islamabad

Advisory Board

President Dr. Syed Mohammad Anwer

Members Syed Abu Ahmad Akif Naufil Shahrukh

Dr. Azhar Ahmad Dr. Aneel Salman

Salman Javed Khalid Rehman

Editorial Board Patron-in-Chief Dr. Syed Mohammad Anwer

Editor-in-Chief Salman Javed

Editor Hafiz Inam

Associate Editors Ayesha Urooj Babar Ali Bhatti

Editorial Assistants Shazia Habib Muneeb Salman

Cover Design & Layout Hadia Nasir

Foreword

By the Grace of Allah, Maritime Study Forum is able to launch the first

issue of Maritime Policy Review, a bi-annual Research Journal in

Pakistan, which aims to provide a platform for researchers carrying out

genuine research in maritime domain. I believe Pakistan, being a sea-

facing country, can make the most of its maritime resources and use this

potential to expedite its economic growth provided our policy makers,

legislators and other stakeholders are aware of the importance of marine

resources and sensitized to the issues being faced by communities living

on the far-stretched coastal belt along the Arabian Sea.

There are total seven articles, excluding a case review and a report

review, presented in the first issue of Maritime Policy Review. The

articles are well thought out and have touched upon relevant issues

Pakistan is facing in the maritime sector. The first article written by Rear

Admiral (Retd) Pervaiz Asghar HI (M) sheds light on the importance of

maintaining peace and security at seas for ocean-facing countries. The

second article gives us insight about Indian expansion in the Indian Ocean

region and its implications for Pakistan vis-à-vis its security and balance

of power in the Arabian Sea. Former ambassador Ghalib Iqbal’s piece puts

light on maritime blindness Pakistan has been suffering from since its

independence. After giving us a brief overview of the historical context of

our maritime blindness, the writer warns us of consequences if we do not

mend our ways. Another very pertinent issue – plight of fishermen

imprisoned in India and Pakistan – is discussed at length by Nida Hameed

and Ayesha Urooj in another piece. A young researcher, Mohammad

Saad, has taken pain in explaining the economics of fisheries and how

Pakistan can sustain its fisheries by following the models he has presented

in his research. The phenomenon of climate change has taken the world

aback. Consequently, the world at large is making serious efforts in a bid

to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate vulnerabilities. The articles titled

“IMO 2020 – step towards clean air” and “Coastal tourism and the threat

of changing climate” are written in the same vein.

Maritime Policy Review is a genuine effort to provide a platform to

young Pakistani researchers carrying out research in the maritime sector. I

strongly believe that this endeavor of MSF will bear fruits for Pakistan in

the long run.

Here, I must acknowledge the hard work of the whole MSF team for

putting their best to make this publication happen. It goes without saying

that none of this would have been possible without the supervision of

Salman Javed.

Enjoy the reading!

Dr Syed Mohammad Anwer Patron-in-Chief February, 2020

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Maritime Security: Challenges and Responses Rear Admiral (Retd) Pervaiz Asghar HI (M)

Regional Implications of India’s Expansion in IOR Mustansar Hussain Taseer & Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar Implications of Pakstan’s Maritime Blindness – Lessons from China’s Maritime Strategy Ambassador (R) Ghalib Iqbal

Plight of Fishermen Imprisoned in India & Pakistan Nida Hameed & Ayesha Urooj

The Economics of Fisheries Muhammad Saad

Coastal Tourism and the Threat of Climate Change Mohammad Ammar Alam

IMO 2020 – Step towards Cleaner Air Muhammad Sarfaraz Alam

Case Review

Report Review

1

16

40

58

72

95

112

126

137

MARITIME POLICY REVIEW – VOL 1, NO. 1

1

Maritime Security: Challenges & Responses

Rear Admiral (Retd) Pervaiz Asghar HI (M)*

Abstract

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when the concept of maritime

security was closely tied to the traditional use of naval military power for

the protection of one’s coast and maritime interests. For the more robust

naval powers, such security was ensured through naval power projection,

while relatively weaker states had little option but to fall back on a

defensive strategy. However, time has changed as major players operating

at seas have now assumed the role of maintaining peace and security to

keep sea trade undisturbed, while safeguarding their national interests.

This paper attempts to highlight the conceptual framework of maritime

security and emerging challenges that need to be taken into consideration

for ensuring peace and security at seas. It also draws attention towards

non-conventional maritime security threats to Pakistan and how Pakistan

can stand tall against such challenges.

* The writer is a former naval officer who commanded two destroyers as well as the 25th

Destroyer Squadron. He has also served as the Director General of National Centre for

Maritime Policy Research.


2

Introduction

For a very long time, the ground rules for marshalling the maritime

environment had unfortunately continued to be laid by those states which

were already de facto in a position of control. The term ‘mare nostrum’

(our sea) was coined by the Romans in 30 BCE to describe their total grip

over the Mediterranean Sea. In 1609 ACE, Hugo Grotius, a Dutch

philosopher-cum-jurist, introduced the concept of ‘Mare Liberum’ (free

sea) enjoining the freedom of navigation at sea.1 This came at a time when

the Dutch were trying to make deeper inroads into the Indian Ocean

trading system and their expectation of a level playing field was thwarted

by the firm Portuguese grip over the ocean’s chokepoints. Around 27

years later, an English academic, John Selden, came out in support of

‘mare clausum’ (closed sea), meaning thereby that the sea was in practice

as capable of appropriation as land territory.2 This led to the emergence of

numerous conflicting claims which had the potential of fomenting

perpetual chaos had not better sense gradually prevailed.

The most crucial development to have taken place was the coming

into force of UNCLOS ‘82. This Convention not only conferred

proportionate rights on all coastal, and even non-coastal states, but more

1 "Hugo Grotius," Encyclopedia Britannica, accessed February 6, 2020,

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hugo-Grotius#ref43936. 2 "John Selden," Encyclopedia Britannica, accessed February 6, 2020,

https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Selden#ref101656.


3

importantly, invested them with vital stakes in the maintenance of stability

at sea.3

UNCLOS ‘82 is best understood as a framework providing a basic

foundation for the international law of the oceans, one which is intended

to be extended and elaborated upon through more specific international

agreements and the evolving customs of states. These extensions are

continually emerging, making the law of the sea at once broader, more

complex and more detailed than UNCLOS. Just as international law has

continued to evolve, so have threats to good order at sea, the difference

being that while the former exudes positivity, the latter foments instability.

The pity is that despite the Convention having laid down clear-cut

mechanisms for the resolution of disputes between states, territorial issues

still serve as a trigger for clashes at sea.

While on the subject of implementation, it may be worthwhile to

mention that the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is not the be-all

and end-all of all maritime matters. While correctly dubbed as an informal

constitution of the oceans, it mostly lays down broad principles, leaving

the elaboration of rules to other treaties. The International Maritime

Organisation, an organ of the United Nations, essays an oversized role in

the promulgation and regular updating of all maritime-related conventions

and codes.

3 "United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea," UN.org, last modified September

5, 2001, https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf


4

Importance of Open Trade at Sea

The one thing that is most central to a nation’s well-being is its ability to

trade freely across continents. A country’s natural resources, along with a

matching value-adding capacity, are all meaningless if a corresponding

ability to trade is denied. The importance of the sea can thus easily be

envisaged when one realises that more than 85% of world trade is

conducted through this medium.4 This also helps explain why during both

the world wars, one of the foremost missions assigned to the navies of

both the adversarial powers was to protect one’s own sea trade while

denying it to the other side. Apart from scenarios where national interests

trump collective needs, the twin concepts of the sea as being a common

heritage of mankind, from which all states benefit from, and of the

freedom of the sea, has now firmly taken root. This augurs well for all

coastal states including Pakistan.

From Pakistan’s perspective, disruptions may occur if a war or

near war situation arises. How the country deals with such emerging

threats falls in the realm of naval strategy and tactics. Suffice it to say that

contingency plans in place are designed to cater to all likely eventualities.

4 "UNCTAD: Seaborne Trade Volume Reached 10.7 Billion Tons in 2017,"

SAFETY4SEA, last modified December 10, 2018, https://safety4sea.com/unctad-

seaborne-trade-volume-reached-10-7-billion-tons-in-2017/.


5

It is not a hidden fact that all the major maritime powers, as well as the

countries straddling the Persian Gulf, have vast stakes in keeping the

international sea trade routes open, and may not take too kindly to any

form of disruption in a two-sided war. Belligerents too, if convinced that

no significant advantage is likely to be accrued by disrupting their

adversary’s sea trade while their own is equally vulnerable, may well

decide to steer clear of what has been termed as guerre de course. And

therein lies the value of deterrence. This is however merely an observation

and should by no means be construed as an argument for letting down

one’s guard.

Maritime Security Matrix and Non-Conventional Security

Threats

These days maritime security has simply become a buzzword and even in

the absence of a consensus on what it encompasses, the term still serves a

useful need of drawing attention to new challenges and mustering support

for tackling them. The maritime security matrix is thus broadly linked to

national security, human security, marine environment and economic

development.5

This brings us to non-traditional challenges at sea, which adversely

impact all the above-named issues in one way or another. They may take

the form of terrorism, piracy, poaching, narco-smuggling, gun-running,

5 Mišo Mudrić, "Maritime Security: Editorial Note," Croatian International Relations

Review (CIRR) 22, no. 75 (n.d.), 5-7.


6

human trafficking and environmental degradation. Such threats have not

only attained prominence, but tend to crop up in areas where they face the

least resistance.

It was the 1985 hijacking of the passenger liner Achille Lauro in

the Mediterranean, which resulted in the senseless killing of a paraplegic

passenger that brought the issue of maritime terrorism in the spotlight.6

The ensuing deliberations led to the adoption of the UN Convention for

the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Marine Navigation

(SUA Convention in short) in 1988.7

The SUA Convention of 1988 enjoins global collaboration to combat

violent crimes at sea. The primary thrust of this Convention is to prevent

people from endangering the safety of ship, crew or passengers. Ship

masters are obliged to deliver offenders along with evidence to port of

entry, while state parties have been made responsible for jurisdiction over

offenders. It all looks fine on paper, but as mentioned earlier, most masters

and even state parties prefer to look the other way when confronted with

vile occurrences at sea.

6 "US Navy Fighter Jets Intercept Italian Cruise Ship Hijackers," History.com, last

modified October 9, 2019, https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/achille-lauro-

hijacking-ends. 7 "SUA Treaties," IMO.org, accessed February 6, 2020,

https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/ListOfConventions/Pages/SUA-

Treaties.aspx.


7

The magnitude of the 9/11 terrorist attacks ushered in its wake the

stark realisation that a similar attack on any major maritime hub could

very well cause an immeasurable dent in the global economy. The US,

feeling particularly vulnerable, kept launching one initiative after another.

Some of them include: The Container Security Initiative, Customs-Trade

Partnership against Terrorism, Maritime Transportation Security Act,

Mega ports Initiative, Proliferation Security Initiative, SAFE Ports Act

and Secure Freight Initiative.

1) Maritime Terrorism

Because of its unpredictable nature and massive devastation potential,

terrorism poses the most significant risk by far to merchantmen and even

naval vessels. The bombing of the USS Cole while at the Aden anchorage,

in 2000, and MV Lindberg off the coast of Yemen in 2002, both rammed

by explosives-laden dinghies, best illustrate the nature of this threat,

though not its full potential.8

As far as the global community was concerned, the greatest

breakthrough in strengthening maritime security achieved in December

2002 at an IMO-sponsored conference, where the International Ship &

Port Facility Security Code was unveiled. Since it was tabled as an

amendment to the existing Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention, its

8 "USS Cole Bombing," Federal Bureau of Investigation, last modified May 18, 2016,

https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/uss-cole-bombing.


8

compliance became mandatory for the 148 SOLAS contracting parties.9

The ISPS Code provides mandatory requirements for governments, port

authorities and shipping companies as well as guidance for

implementation.

2) Piracy

Piracy poses the next biggest threat to maritime security. The Malacca

Straits, the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Guinea

display marked vulnerabilities. Yet when compared to Somali piracy in its

heyday (2005-2012), these are mere pinpricks. In Somalia, what started

off as a local endeavour to curb rampant poaching and dumping of toxic

waste in its lawless waters, grew into a full-blown piratical enterprise. It

spiralled out of control by 2008 when fabulous sums of money were being

raked in as ransom for captured vessels, cargo and crew. In 2010 alone,

pirates seized close to 50 vessels, taking nearly 1200 seamen as

hostages.10 And from this peak, piracy dwindled gradually in 2011 and

more rapidly the next. What caused such piracy to flourish in the first

place was a disjointed international response. A large number of warships

did belatedly converge on to the high risk areas by 2009, either as part of

international groupings like the EUs Operation Atlanta, NATOs Operation

Ocean Shield or the international coalition’s CTF 151, or as individual

9 "SOLAS XI-2 ISPS Code," IMO.org, accessed February 6, 2020,

https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Security/Guide_to_Maritime_Security/Pages/SOLAS-

XI-2%20ISPS%20Code.aspx. 10 "FACTBOX-Ships Held by Somali Pirates," Reuters.com, last modified January 28,

2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/somalia-piracy-incidents-

idAFLDE70R0VS20110128.


9

units, to protect their country’s national interests. At the end of the day,

piracy off Somalia, which had spread its tentacles to the furthest reaches

of the western Indian Ocean, was brought under control through a series of

coordinated steps:

a. Broad-based UN resolutions authorising the international

community to tackle the threat in a collaborative manner by

targeting the planners, facilitators and perpetrators of piracy, not

only within Somali waters but also within its land territory if

required.

b. Preparation, dissemination and updating of an industry-backed

initiative outlining best management practices to deter piracy.

c. Authorising merchantmen traversing the area to carry armed

guards for protection.

d. Imposition of banking curbs on UK banks in particular, to

complicate the issue of ransom payments.

e. Setting up of a task force aimed at targeting the organisers,

financiers and negotiators behind the piracy enterprise.

f. Encouraging the collaborative capacity building of regional states.

The Malacca Strait is a high density traffic lane. Once realisation sunk in

that trade disruptions in this corridor were inimical to the regional

economy, the three major countries straddling the waterway, namely

Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia started containment efforts through

effective coordination in the form of ReCAAP (The Regional Cooperation

Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against ships in

Asia) and commencement of joint patrols, which proved immensely


10

successful.11 The only major flashpoint at the moment is the Gulf of

Guinea where the principal player, Nigeria, needs to spearhead a similar

initiative. The G8++ Friends of the Gulf of Guinea (FOGG) group tries to

help out with the capacity-building of regional states.

3) Human and Drug Trafficking

Side by side with piracy, other crimes too have blossomed, largely

unchecked. Criminal enterprises find the medium to be an inviting one,

since the vast expanse of the sea makes effective policing difficult. From

the illegal transportation of humans, drugs and arms to poaching and the

dumping of toxic waste, the sea has seen it all. Like piracy, illegal,

unreported and unregulated fishing too has an immediate impact on the

lives of local populations. This situation also has to be dealt with through

regional collaboration.

4) Poor Marine Environment

In broad terms, degradation of the marine environment also poses a grave

threat to maritime security. The IMO has accordingly adopted strict anti-

pollution standards for ships courtesy of the MARPOL Convention. It may

however be stressed that pollution of the sea through land-based sources

poses a far graver threat. This is regulated through several regional

11 "PCG, ReCAAP ISC Convene to Assess Evolution of Piracy, Sea Robbery in Asia,"

Philippine Coast Guard Official Website, last modified December 18, 2019,

https://www.coastguard.gov.ph/index.php/11-news/3645-pcg-recaap-isc-convene-to-

assess-evolution-of-piracy-sea-robbery-in-asia.


11

treaties, most of which have been adopted under the aegis of the UN

Environmental Program. The Pakistan’s Environmental Protection Agency

needs to take a lead from such UN initiatives.

Legal Obstacles in the Way of Ensuring Maritime Security

Maritime security is also endangered by crimes committed at sea. The

most problematic aspect of such crimes is the difficulty in obtaining

justice. In theory, the captain is responsible for maintaining peace, but in

practice, the best he can do is to hand over the suspects to the nearest

convenient port. He simply doesn’t possess the required prosecution and

judicial wherewithal. In theory again, jurisdiction devolves to the country

whose flag the ship flies, but in practice, most ships fly a flag of

convenience, tagged to a country that neither has the will nor the resources

to investigate crimes that occur well beyond its shores.

Threats to Pakistan’s Maritime Security

Pakistan faces more or less the same threats, though in varying degrees.

Effectively countering such diverse threats in such a vast medium is

indeed an uphill task. Pakistan’s job is made even more difficult due to a

number of glaring deficiencies.

Pakistan’s biggest problem used to be a complete lack of

coordination at the ministerial, departmental and field levels. It was left to


12

the Pakistan Navy to take the initiative to bring together all the country’s

public sector agencies with a stake in maritime security on the same grid.

The Joint Maritime Information and Coordination Centre that was set up

at Manora includes representatives from all associated agencies for

effective coordination. The Centre has not only been working smoothly

since February 2013, it has also established working linkages with other

regional info sharing portals, most notably the Information Fusion Centre

at Singapore. With the aim of further expanding its access to maritime-

related information, the Pakistan Navy joined the Trans Regional

Maritime Network (T-RMN), a 32-nation group based in Italy, in October

2019.12 Linkages at the higher echelons are sustained by the National

Maritime Affairs Coordination Committee, whose meetings are chaired by

the Defence Secretary. Its working is however marred by the irregularity

with which the body meets, as well as a lack of interest which the

ministries generally display.

While info sharing and coordination are undoubtedly important,

their contribution would not amount to much were it not for a

corresponding ability to act. The Pakistan Maritime Security Agency,

which was setup soon after UNCLOS ‘82 was opened up for signature, is

primarily responsible for monitoring breaches of the Convention. The

Pakistan Navy too, by virtue of being endowed with effective long range

surveillance and enforcement platforms, happens to be an exceedingly

12 "Pakistan Navy Joins 32-member Trans Regional Maritime Network," RADIO

PAKISTAN, accessed February 6, 2020, https://www.radio.gov.pk/20-10-2019/pakistan-

navy-joins-32-member-trans-regional-maritime-network.


13

viable instrument that the country has at its disposal for underwriting its

maritime security.

Pakistan Responding to Security Threats

Realising that the most effective way of countering the common hybrid

menaces that recognize no boundaries is through regional alliances. This is

evident from the fact that the Pakistan Navy, till recently, had been a

regular participant of Combined Task Forces 150 and 151, both of which

it had the honour of commanding multiple times. The US-led CTF 150

had been set up in the wake of the UN-sanctioned invasion of

Afghanistan, with the prime objective of ensuring maritime security in the

Arabian Sea by undertaking counterterrorism operations. When piracy

incidents off Somalia started registering a sharp uptick, a dedicated

Combined Task Force 151 was set up to patrol, monitor and counter

piracy in general in the Gulf of Yemen. Based on the friendships forged

and experiences gained through such multi-navy enterprises, the Pakistan

Navy has since instituted its own Regional Maritime Security Patrols.

As far as maritime security in essence is concerned, the most

relevant piece of legislation is the International Ship and Port Facility

Security Code, which came into being soon after the 9/11 attacks and is

part and parcel of the SOLAS Convention. The primary objective of this

code is to ensure the strengthening of security measures in order to deal

effectively with all emerging maritime security threats. As per this code,


14

Pakistan, as a contracting government, is supposed to conduct port facility

security assessments, evaluate risks and prepare port security plans. All

ships are required, amongst other things, to carry a Continuous Synopsis

Record (CSR), and have an Automatic Information System (AIS), Ship

Security Alert System (SSAS) and Long Range Identification and

Tracking System (LRIT) fitted on board. While Pakistan is broadly

complying with these steps, what it lacks at the moment is an effective

regulatory mechanism.

Apart from regulatory issues, Pakistan is notoriously lax in

formulating its own domestic legislation. When international treaties are

not wedded to domestic law, implementation understandably poses

difficulties. For instance, if the offence of piracy is not outlawed through

domestic legislation, and piracy is not included in Pakistan’s penal code as

a criminal act, prosecution of pirates that the country has captured will

remain a distant dream. Likewise, in the absence of domestic legislation,

Pakistani law enforcers cannot prevent ships from dumping oil, sludge,

ballast or other toxic substances in our coastal waters or prosecute them if

caught. Maritime, Admiralty and Prize courts are also needed for trying

offences of a specialised nature, like commercial shipping matters,

navigation-related issues, salvage, collisions, groundings, etc.


15

Conclusion

Most of the challenges currently being faced at sea have taken on a

transnational, trans-boundary and hybrid flavour. Such threats can only

effectively be countered by remaining a step or two ahead of the criminals

who feed on them. In Pakistan’s case, that not only involves restructuring

at the ministerial, departmental and field levels, but also forging regional

partnerships.

All coastal states are expected to act responsibly and in tandem

with each other by beefing up their port and ship-related security measures

to minimise security incidents. Pakistan is expected to, and should, do all

it can to ensure its own security as well as the security of broader global

maritime community. Having been plagued by terrorism for the better part

of four decades, the country cannot afford its spillover into the maritime

domain.


16

Regional Implications of India’s Expansion in

IOR

Mustansar Hussain Taseer*& Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar**

Abstract

The idiosyncratic geographical location, along with several other factors,

make the Indian Ocean one of the most significant and busiest bodies of

water with prodigious economic dividends. However, as the regional

powers lock horns for Indian Ocean’s supremacy and are extraordinarily

tightening up their respective military muscles, the already fragile

regional security environment comes under the dark shadow of risk. It is

mainly in the interests of the major powers which are fueling the fire for

future hostility by widening the gulf of mistrust through their aggressive

and threatening maneuvers in the IOR. Despite the presence of numerous

fault lines, the strategic ventures by the aspiring powers not only to

achieve their respective interests but also to jeopardize the others’ are fast

becoming the order of the day in the IOR. The two rising nations India

and China are at the forefront in this new wave of geopolitical strife in the

IOR. Both countries are major stake-holders in the region and might never

be in a position to afford regional instability, yet they have plunged into

*Mustansar Hussain Taseer is a visiting faculty at the Department of International

Relations, University of Okara

** Dr. Summar Iqbal Babar is an Assistant Professor at School of Politics and

International Relations, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.


17

the deep swamps of arms race coming out of which might never be

possible in this world of anarchic order. The history of unfriendliness,

rather animosity between the two, and the distrust that has perpetuated

over the years have not let the two most populous yet flourishing nations

to permanently resolve their various discords. In the 21stcentury, this

traditional contest has now entered into the maritime domain and the

Indian Ocean and its rims are the major zones of competition. Both sides

seem completely submerged in this struggle for relative geopolitical

inducements. They spare not a single opportunity to get a strategic

leverage over the other. The two sides are intransigent with their realist

approach to the regional and global politics and are unable to come out of

their traditional zone of influence. So, the massive military modernization,

nuclearization of the waters, and emergence of confrontationist poles are

some of the indications that the region is going to face serious stability

risk in the near future which will have perilous implications for the whole

IOR. Not only the region’s already tenuous peace, security and economic

prosperity will be at stake, but any miscalculation or irrational

adventurism may lead to atrocious consequences.

Introduction

Rapidly increasing significance of the Indian Ocean Region and the

ensuing intense competition for dominance among various powers has

turned the region into a hotspot of the latest geopolitical writhe. Keeping

in view the economic and strategic dividends the ocean offers, many

political players seem to be out to get their cherished share. With the


18

recognition of the ‘Asian Century’, the Indian Ocean Region has been

spot-lighted by observers like Robert Kaplan, as the “Center Stage for the

Twenty-first Century” power tussles.13 Furthermore, China, the Indians

believe, is fearful of India’s rise and want to contain it by engaging it

through Pakistan. The major issue, however, is their deep-rooted distrust

and despite reaching voluminous trade level of 100 billion US dollars14

between the two countries, economic interdependence seems failed to

replace the recent wave of geopolitics. These geopolitical bases, ports,

strategic chokepoints and facilities are also sources of serious mutual

disquiet.

The preceding discussion underscores that India has unalienable

and serious interests and imperatives in the IOR. These interests and

concerns are of all types and at all levels. India must struggle for them as it

is the country’s not only an international right but an obligation as a

nation-state. However, as the study suggests that the issue is not only of

the due rights, it is more than that. India’s actions and forays appear

destabilizing and disrupting the regional strategic balance.

The study, further explains various developments by

deconstructing the country’s 2015 Maritime Security Strategy that

indicates India has long been aspiring for regional dominance as it proudly

declares its struggle for becoming the net maritime security provider in the

13Robert D. Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century,” Foreign Affairs 88, no. 2

(2009): 16–32. 14“India-China Trade Set To Cross $100 Billion This Year, Says Official,” NDTV,

accessed July 2, 2019, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-china-trade-set-to-cross-

100-billion-this-year-says-official-2046060.


19

whole Indo-Pacific region. In the Indian Ocean, it is not only expanding its

influence at the cost of other regional stakeholders such as China and

Pakistan, but also rigorously developing its naval capabilities which may

have irreversible strategic implications not only for the IOR but also

beyond.

Significance of IOR

Due to its idiosyncratic geographical location, its glittering profusion of

natural resources and its historical engagements, the third-largest body of

water, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has achieved an unprecedented

pivotal role in the world’s economic, strategic, and political reckonings. In

Sanskrit, the Indian Ocean was called Ratnakara that means “the creator

of gems.”15 There is a very famous statement attributed to Admiral Alfred

Thayer Mahan as: ‘Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian

Ocean would be a prominent player on the international scene. Whoever

controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia. This Ocean is the key to the

seven seas in the 21st century, the destiny of the world will be decided in

these waters.’16 Ipso facto many states such as China, India, Japan,

Australia, and some Western nations appear to be in a state of ‘perpetual

race’ in the IOR struggling to secure a disproportionate share of dividends

15“Connecting the Gems of the Indian Ocean: From Oman to East Africa,” National

Museum of African Art, accessed November 13, 2018,

https://africa.si.edu/50years/oman/. 16“Indian Ocean’- The 21st Century ‘Security Dilemma’ between China and India –

NICKELED AND DIMED,” Nickel and Dimmed, November 15, 2014,

https://nickledanddimed.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/indian-ocean-the-21st-century-

security-dilemma-between-china-and-india-category-foreign-policy-and-politics-

institutions/.


20

the ocean offers. Consequently, the IOR has turned into a geopolitical

hotbed.

Rimmed with three continents; Asia, Africa, and Australia, the

IOR plays its inordinate part by feeding over one-third of the planet’s total

population. Though the economic and political importance of the IOR has

achieved immense hype in the recent decades, yet the advantages offered

by its natural geographical setting have remained nonpareil. The Indian

Ocean spreads over a total of 73,427,000 square kilometers (28,350,000

square miles) that make 20 per cent of the world’s total sea

surface.17Contrary to others’ North-South stretch, the Indian Ocean is

stretched East-West. So, none of its area is covered by snow that enables

maritime activities throughout the year.

Dr. Walter C. Ladwig III of Kings College London posits that the

IOR is important for the simple fact that one-third of humanity lives in the

littoral region. The region’s waterways are a vital conduit for bringing oil

from the Persian Gulf to the economies of much of the Asia-Pacific, and to

a lesser extent Europe. The same waterways also provide the means for

manufacturers in East Asia to export goods to market in the Middle East,

Africa, and Europe. A host of important industrial raw materials can also

be found in, or transit, this region.18

17“Indian Ocean," Encyclopedia.Com, accessed December 20, 2018,

https://www.encyclopedia.com/places/oceans-continents-and-polar-regions/oceans-and-

continents/indian-ocean#IndianOc. 18Walter Ladwig III, Interview via Email, January 7, 2019.


21

India’s Expansion in IOR

A nation’s envisioned strategic objectives, interests, its worldview, and the

prevailing geopolitical and geo-strategic environment shape its orientation

towards attaining a specific level of sea power mainly because a state’s

foreign policy and maritime power are inseparably linked. Maritime power

is an ability that serves a nation to realize its geopolitical aspirations and

one of the key factors to play its role to transform a nation into a powerful

and influential one at the world stage if its geographical location is

advantageous and it capitalizes the location and develops a certain level of

maritime and naval fitness. In today’s realist world where nations are

running for relative gains, the states naturally blessed with some

geographical leverages over its perceived or real adversaries are always in

a struggle to maintain that edge. India seems one of them.

According to India’s strategy document, there are three main

reasons for India’s swelling thirst for achieving the status of great

maritime power. First, due to the shifting of the world’s focus towards

Asia and the Indo-Pacific region and this repositioning has resulted in the

unusual transformations in the Indian Ocean Region which has brought

India’s maritime relevance in the light. Second, India believes that the new

challenges to the maritime security such as terrorism through seas have

drastically changed the whole security architecture of the Indian Ocean

which calls for serious reevaluation, upgradations, and doctrinal

reorientation to align them with the nature of new threats. Third, India sees

maritime power as an important element for national progress, global


22

interactions and India’s “regional foreign policy initiatives.”19 One

interpretation of this could be that Indians want a level of maritime

capability which they could tactfully employ to achieve their geopolitical

and other goals.

As the Modi regime maintains three main elements of India’s

foreign policy; “the use of power, diversity of security relationships and

the pursuit of status,” its active and prioritized Indian Ocean policy lies

right at the heart of “Modi’s foreign policy fundamentals.”20 These are

India’s strategic transformations and the quest for expanding maritime

capabilities and doctrinal shifts which were vividly expressed in India’s

updated version of maritime security strategy revealed and published in

2015 titled; Ensuring the Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy

(IMSS-2015) – the document that a senior Indian security analyst dubbed

as an “Ambitious New Naval Strategy.”21 It appears from the maritime

strategy that India has formalized its aggressive maritime postures to make

it in congruence with India’s overall foreign policy objectives and expand

national interests in South Asia, IOR and even in South East Asia, which

this research will explore in reasonable details.

19 "Ensuring Secure Seas,” India, Indian Navy, and Directorate of Strategy updated on

January 25,2016,

https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_Security_Strategy_Do

cument_25Jan16.pdf 20Rajesh Basrur, “Modi’s Foreign Policy Fundamentals: A Trajectory Unchanged,”

International Affairs 93, no. 1 (January 1, 2017): 7–26, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiw006. 21Vivek Mishra, “Revealed: India’s Ambitious New Naval Strategy,” Text, The National

Interest, June 2, 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/revealed-indias-ambitious-new-

naval-strategy-16438.


23

Some of the very important questions will be addressed in this

paper: what are India’s interests and imperatives in the IOR? What are the

major contours of India’s maritime strategy and why so? What is India’s

Naval and maritime modernization drive? Besides, the discussion will also

try to ascertain whether India is an Offensive Realist state.

India’s Strategic Imperatives in IOR

Owing to its unique geographical location, its peninsular shape, its rapid

economic and military growth, and also due to historical factors, India’s

interests and primacy in the Indian Ocean Region cannot be undervalued.

Its location in the Indian Ocean is a double-edged sword and is not the

only source of prospects and potentialities for India’s economic growth

and geopolitical gains but at the same time is a cause of vulnerability due

to its 7,500 kilometres long coastline and 1200 islands in the vast stretches

of the ocean. Over the period of time, India’s strategic imperatives in the

IOR have multiplied due to the changing nature of threats and inroads of

the extra-regional powers, such as China, which are apparently inimical to

India’s geopolitical interests. The prevailing strategic environment has

also a lot to do with the significance of the IOR for India’s security. The

volatile region is home to conflicts and arms race between two South

Asian nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, deploying their strategic

weapons now at sea and literally testing each other’s resolve repeatedly

while pushing the region at the risk of strategic instability.


24

PM Modi placed the IOR at the top of the priority list of his

government and vowed to utilize resources and capabilities for

cooperation and also called for the regional stakeholders to play a role in

maintaining peace and security of the IOR.22 The Indian PM categorically

explained India’s objectives in the Indian Ocean in his speech explaining

the SAGAR vision during his 2015 visit to Seychelles and Mauritius

saying, “our goal is to seek a climate of trust and transparency; respect for

international maritime rules and norms by all countries; sensitivity to each

other’s interests; peaceful resolution of maritime security issues; and

increase in maritime cooperation.”23

If summarized in points, India’s some prominent interests and strategic

imperatives in the larger Indian Ocean Region could be as follows:

i) To secure its Sea Lines of Communications, chokepoints and to

ensure the uninterrupted flow of its energy and other trade

supplies;

ii) To ensure the security of its mainland, islands, deployments,

Economic Zones and other maritime settings, throughout the

Indian Ocean from all natures of challenges including conventional

and nonconventional threats;

iii) To keep its natural resources exploration projects smooth and

intact to exploit the maritime potentials to their maximum;

22Harsh V. Pant, “New Delhi’s Indian Ocean Outreach,” The Diplomat, June 01, 2017,

https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/new-delhis-indian-ocean-outreach/. 23“Mr. Modi’s Ocean View,” The Hindu, March 17, 2015, sec. Editorial,

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/mr-modis-ocean-view/article7000182.ece.


25

iv) To counter and curtail the intrusion of the extra-regional powers

perceived as hostile to its sphere of influence and its long-term

geopolitical interests;

v) To gain the capability to act as a principal player in America’s

Indo-Pacific and China containment policy;

vi) To gradually remove all those barriers hampering India to achieve

the status of a regional leader and a Net Security Provider.

To achieve these objectives, India has been devising its maritime strategy

and pursuing various short and long-term policies, some with declared

objectives while some designs or some policies are not clear, at least not

being announced by India, and are deliberately kept secret conceivably

due to the diversity and complexity of India’s geopolitical interests in the

IOR.

India’s Maritime Strategy

To understand Indian future strategic endeavors and enterprises in the

maritime sphere, deconstruction and analyses of the Indian maritime

strategy are of supreme importance. Without its study, one cannot claim

comprehensive study of the subject matter. It would just be shallow and

superficial. In the new maritime strategy published in 2015 by the Indian

Navy titled Ensuring the Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy

(IMSS-2015), there appears to be two levels of India’s maritime focus

keeping in view the country’s interests and imperatives discussed in the


26

pages above. One is called by the document as primary areas and the other

is declared as secondary areas.

The changing regional maritime dynamics couldn’t attract due

attention in the 2007 Indian Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime

Military Strategy perhaps because the contours of currently emerging

geopolitical and strategic environment of the Indian Ocean as well as the

Pacific Region weren’t clear and the world powers particularly the US had

still not entered the fray by announcing its rebalancing or the Pivot policy.

The Mumbai attack which is being given a special reference in the IMSS-

2015 happened in 2008. Similarly, China’s foothold was also not divisible.

As mentioned earlier, though China’s String of Pearls had got a mention in

2005 and its traces were found even earlier, but the clarity was not there

and due to these reasons, the US and India could not formulate an

appropriate response to it. China’s BRI and MSR initiative was announced

in 2013 which brought clarity to a greater extent. So, these and some other

realities reasonably contributed to broadening the scope of India’s

Maritime Strategy (IMSS-2015) with the primary feature of filling the gaps

of geopolitical changes that took place between 2007 and 2015. Some of

the notable features of India’s maritime strategy are as follows:

(1) Defining Areas of Interests

The IMSS-2015 alters and extends India’s areas of preferences at the seas.

Starting from coastal areas, the primary areas include; India’s territorial

waters, EEZ, the continental shelf including various seas, chokepoints and


27

its islands. The primacy of these areas is because they are actually directly

connected with India’s security, economic and political interests and any

harm in these spheres may inflict serious damage not only to India’s long-

term interests but to its reputation as a dominant regional power.

(2) Greater Role in National Security

Recently, the Indian Navy has rapidly emerged as a critical national player

in regional and global strategic alliance formations. India’s strategic

thinkers, as per documents, see the 21st century for their country as the

century of seas. So the maritime domain has now a greater part to play in

India’s grand strategy or what the 2015 document calls, “National Security

Strategy” through a greater role of “Navy for national development,”

maintenance of national defence and security by achieving “full-spectrum

capability” with having greater focus “on developing and maintaining the

Navy as a continually formidable, multi-dimensional, balanced and

networked force, capable of countering the full range of maritime threats

and challenges” to play a decisive role in preventing or winning any

conflict by devising and rigorously implementing strategies both for

deterrence and conflict.24

24 "Indian Maritime Security Strategy - 2015 | Indian Navy," Official Website of Indian

Navy, accessed January 4, 2020, https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/indian-maritime-

security-strategy-2015.


28

(3) India as Net Security Provider

Net Security Provider state is the one which claims having the military

capability of not only maintaining its own security in the wake of any

threat perception but also possesses the required strength and depth to

practically assist other countries, regional or beyond, to guarantee their

security as well through various means and methods. The methods may

include the client nations’ military capacity building, collaborative foreign

policy objectives through rightly thought out military diplomacy, joint

military exercises, military assistance, and through direct deployment in

those countries if needed. One fundamental point which can define India’s

whole IMSS-2015 is India’s aspiration to become a maritime Net Security

Provider (NSP). The NSP is the prime theme around which the whole

strategy document revolves. All the maritime expansion, naval

modernization, collaboration with other maritime forces, alliances, Quad

or others, establishment of ports and bases around the region, and all such

other themes appear to have one major objective: to prove and improve

India’s maritime abilities for a real Net Security Provider.

India’s Maritime Expansion

India’s maritime expansion can rightly be seen under the broader context

of its aspirations of projecting itself as a regional leader and a hegemon

and its quest for becoming a net maritime security provider. According to

India’s current maritime strategy, expansion of India’s interests are

expanding into the vast stretches of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. India’s


29

strategy in this regard is not only ambitious and expansionist in nature but

also very comprehensive. It covers all aspects of maritime cooperation,

alliances, as well as spatial expansion in all the sub regions of the IOR.

Look West

Earlier, India did not pay much attention to its far western side of the

Indian Ocean region and the areas remained least important in its

maritime strategic calculations. But with China’s increasing influence in

this part of the IOR, India has felt the need to have a very pragmatic and

inclusive orientation towards the whole Ocean. As the Great Game has

moved to the seas, it’s quite natural that India is struggling to achieve

convergence with various Middle Eastern nations particularly with Iran

and has taken over partial control of its Chabahar Port which is very

close to Pakistan’s Gwadar.25

It is believed that a vibrant Look West Policy is far more

important for New Delhi as compared to looking towards physically and

geographically well-connected East and South East Asia. The Indian

analyst opined that India acts geopolitically, strategically, and culturally

more towards Central Asia, Middle East regions, especially the latter

where China is still not properly locked-in with other nations of the area

25Harry I. Hannah, "The Great Game Moves to Sea: Tripolar Competition in the Indian

Ocean Region,” Texas National Security Review, April 01, 2019, accessed at:

https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/the-great-game-moves-to-sea-tripolar-competition-

in-the-indian-ocean-region/.


30

while India already enjoys trustful ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel,

Iraq and such other countries.26

Under this policy, India’s some of the moves to assume control over

various maritime facilities of the western region are detailed as follows:

(i) Iran, Chabahar Port

In 2014, India provided nearly $85 million financial assistance to Iran

for construction of two berths at Chabahar port. Later in 2016, PM Modi

vowed to invest over $500m to develop and function the Chabahar Port.

India officially took control of the operational part of the Iranian port in

December 2018 which is strategically very important as it is situated

closer to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint of the Indian

Ocean through which a third of world’s oil is being transported. The

port will also serve India as a transit trade route to Afghanistan and

Central Asian Republics via Iran. It is clear from these developments

that India has been given a waiver from the US over the issue of

Chabahar Port and Washington never compelled India to act against Iran

over nuclear issues or abide by the UNSC sanctions against Tehran.27

26Akhilesh Pillalamarri, “Why India Should ‘Look West’ Instead,” The Diplomat, March 07, 2016, accessed at: https://thediplomat.com/2016/03/why-india-should-look-west-

instead/. 27Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, "Chabahar Port: The End of Gwadar?” Global Village Space,

December 27, 2018, accessed at: https://www.globalvillagespace.com/chabahar-port-the-

end-of-gwadar/.


31

(ii) UAE, Dubai Deployment

India has been developing closer ties with many Gulf States. Its

maritime collaboration with the UAE is a vivid example of the fact that

India has been successful in its Look West Policy. India has been

engaging the UAE in many joint exercises such as Gulf Star-1 which

held in 2018 and also in training exercises to share maritime security

objectives in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.28

Three Indian naval vessels; the Deepak, Tarkash and Delhi from

its Western Naval Command were deployed in Dubai in 2016 for one-

month time to strengthen maritime relations with the aim of “enhancing

cooperation and sharing experiences of naval operations including

disaster management and the fight against maritime terrorism and

piracy.”29

India’s Naval Modernization

The Sino-Indian strategic competition encourages Indian military

establishment to develop the offensive capacity. Various significant

headways have been made and tests are done as India gears up to address

28“Two Indian Ships Take Part in UAE-India Naval Exercise,” Gulf News, March 18, 2018, accessed at: https://gulfnews.com/uae/two-indian-ships-take-part-in-uae-india-

naval-exercise-1.2190342. 29“Indian Naval Vessels to Make Port of Call in Dubai," Khaleej Times, accessed June

13, 2019, https://www.khaleejtimes.com/nation/general/indian-naval-vessels-to-make-

port-of-call-in-dubai.


32

security challenges rising from its neighbors who face the antagonistic

Indian behaviour. India is following an offensive realist approach towards

its neighbours and has grand plans to keep its hegemony in the region. The

2015 Indian Maritime Doctrine underscores the need to show a solid Navy

existence in the Indian Ocean Region to reinforce the seaside resistance

and to show a purpose to secure strategic sea lanes of communication. The

maritime capability sets out the objective of developing around 212

warships and 458 maritime aircrafts, as compared to just 138 warships and

235 aircrafts in 2017, to turn into a ground-breaking three-dimensional

blue-water power able to viably guard India's growing key maritime

interests. India wants powerful maritime capabilities to support its

increasing international trade activities by fast-expanding connectivity

with the world for further economic growth.30

Some of the significant accomplishments of the Indian Navy in weapon

advancement are listed below:

Induction of Three Aircraft Carriers

Carriers are costly images of a nation’s esteem. India at present has just

a single operational plane carrying warship – the INS Vikramaditya.

The Vikrant is the second carrier which is under development at Cochin

30Kartik Bommakanti, “India and China’s Space and Naval Capabilities: A Comparative

Analysis,” Occasional Paper (New Delhi: Observer Research Foundation, 23 July 2018),

2018, 41–43.


33

Shipyard and will initiate its ocean preliminaries by 2020.31 Russian-

made MiG-29K contender planes would work from the deck of both the

carriers. The IN has put out a proposition for its third Air Craft Carrier

(ACC), probably named the Vishal, which is due to enter service by

2030s.

Induction of Six Nuclear Submarines

India consented to buy six French Scorpene subs while making

endeavours to update its Kilo-class submarines into 'missile competent'

vessels. The total of six submarines from France will cost India $700m.

The Navy of India will get an approval to construct the progressed

Scorpene submarines in the shipbuilding yards run by the state.32 On

December 4, 2018, while talking on the Indian Navy Day, Chief of Naval

Staff Admiral Sunil Lanba disclosed the blueprint for a persistent naval

build-up planned to make India the main military force in the Indian

Ocean Region. Lanba said: "If I crystal gaze ahead to 2050, we will be a

200 ship, 500 flying craft world-class Navy,"33 revealing the expected

power levels. The manufacture time for the new 62 warships and

submarines will be spread over 10 years. The present strength of Indian

Naval warships is around 140. Among the important declarations he

made were the initiation of development of Indian third ACC in three

31Robert Beckhusen, “India’s Aircraft Carriers: A Giant Waste of Time?,” The National Interest, December 24, 2018, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/indias-aircraft-

carriers-giant-waste-time-39672. 32“India - Navy Modernization,” Global Security, accessed June 21, 2019,

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/india/in-navy-development.htm. 33“India - Navy Modernization.”


34

years, and approvals for projects to manufacture six extra routinely fueled

Project 75 (India) submarines with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP).34

Stealth Frigates/Corvettes

The Shivalik class warships are one of the most up to date surface warriors

of the Indian Navy. Additionally, these are the main Indian-made warships

with improved stealth features. Due to their size, the ships of the Shivalik

class could be even used as destroyers. However, their weapon is

unreasonably light for a genuine destroyer. Still, these warships are truly

fit and as of now are among the world's most fatal frigates.35 A total of

three ships were built somewhere in between 2000 and 2010 and right now

these warships are active. These Indian frigates have a solid anti-ship and

land assault capability. They are equipped with a general 8-cell Vertical

Launch system for BRAHMOS rapid cruise missiles and Klub-N anti-ship

voyage missile.36The BRAHMOS rockets have a top speed of Mach 3

(3,700 km/h) and can reach the ocean or land targets at the range of 290

km. Most Indian warships are loaded with BRAHMOS. The Klub-N anti-

ship voyage missile (SS-N-27 Sizzler) is a copycat of the Russian Kalibr-

NK and has a range of 440-660 km.37

34 Ibid. 35“Shivalik Class Frigate," Military-Today.Com, accessed June 21, 2019,

http://www.military-today.com/navy/shivalik_class.htm. 36“Shivalik Class Frigate | Military-Today.Com.” 37 Ibid.


35

Barak 8 Air Defense

India has carried out a successful test shooting of its Medium Range

Surface to Air Missile (MRSAM) which was propelled from Indian Navy

Ships: Chennai (D65) and Kochi (D64). Co-created by Israel and India,

the weapon, additionally known as the Barak-8, can supposedly engage

with the target as much as 150 km away.38It is 0.225 meters in distance

across, about 4.5 meters long, and weighs 275 kg which includes 60 kg

warhead. It has the maximum speed of Mach 2 with a greatest operational

range of 70 km (that has been expanded to 100 km). The missile provides

guard against any threat to the marine field from air, land or ocean. It is

intended to protect against short to long run airborne dangers including

drones, helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft and projectiles.

BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile

Brahmos is a supersonic cruise missile which is rapid and created by

BrahMos Aerospace, a joint endeavour between the Defense Research and

Development Organization (DRDO) of India and NPO Mashinostroeyenia

(NPOM) of Russia. The missile is named after two waterways, the Indian

Brahmaputra and the Russian Moskva. In February 1998, India and Russia

agreed to an arrangement to set up BrahMos Aerospace for creating the

BrahMos missiles. In June 2001, the first BrahMos missile was tested at

Chandipur in Orissa Coast. Since then, it has been effectively tested from

a number of platforms including warships and land-based objects. The

38“India Successfully Test Fires MRSAM," Missile Threat, accessed June 21, 2019,

https://missilethreat.csis.org/india-successfully-tests-surface-to-air-missile/.


36

missile can be designed for land, ocean and aerial platforms. It has a

booster and an extra tail for stability in the flight.39

Naval Exercises

The real maritime strength of India lies in its alliances and joint naval

ventures with other nations. These joint maritime exercises reinforce

India's position in the Indian Ocean vis-à-vis China. The Malabar

maritime exercise has been conducted each year except from 1998 to 2002

when India disbanded this exercise in the wake of nuclear explosion in

1998.

The Malabar 2007 was the primary exercise that was carried out

outside the Indian Ocean before the 2009 Malabar drill which was

trilateral and included Japan too. The yearly trilateral maritime exercise

between India, Japan and the US is being viewed as a threat by China.

India started holding naval drills with every significant naval force in

accordance with its multi-vectored international strategy that incorporates

the USA, Russia, France, UK and Singapore.40

39“BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missile," Army Technology, accessed June 21, 2019, https://www.army-technology.com/projects/brahmossupersoniccru/. 40“(PDF) India-US MALABAR Naval Exercises: Trends and Tribulations | Gurpreet

Khurana," Academia.Edu, accessed June 21, 2019,

https://www.academia.edu/7879273/India-

US_MALABAR_Naval_Exercises_Trends_and_Tribulations


37

Regional Implications

It has been established that India is expanding its maritime interests and

imperatives in the Indian Ocean Region. It is putting its maximum

resources whatsoever to gain the control of these waters. India has proved

offensive in its pursuit of naval dominance. Maritime aspirations of the

South Asian country is continuously widening and expanding instead of

restraining. India’s aspirations for the regional policeman role and its

sphere of influence coupled with ostensible willingness to play a pivotal

role in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China is alarming for

the region. Moreover, India’s growing maritime groupings, such as Quad

and naval modernization have grave implications for the strategic stability

of South Asia.

The divergence between India and China on various issues

discussed earlier is manifesting more vividly in the waters of the Indian

Ocean Region and geopolitics, which also includes geostrategic, has taken

the lead again despite increased relevance of geo-economics. Moreover, as

geo-economics is being used as the main factor to lure the regional

stakeholders for geopolitical gains, all these three facets are interwoven

and can’t be separated.

Unfortunately, no third party is playing any role to ease the

situation. Rather, the more influential third party in the IOR i.e. the USA

has taken a belligerent stance against China. The intensity of the

geopolitics in the region is more a creation of the US as Chinese


38

containment is now among one of its major foreign policy objectives.

America’s Pivot moves towards Asia and its efforts to use the Indo-Pacific

region as a chessboard to play this new containment game against the so-

called revisionist China is making the competition nasty and dirty. The US

is in a new Cold War with China especially Trump’s attitude has appeared

aggressive, impulsive and inconsistent. This situation does not bode well

for the stability of the region.

Besides the factors discussed above, the volatility of the region is

another major catalyst to exacerbate the implications of the geopolitical

competition between the two major powers. Terrorism, insecurity,

instability, violence and conflicts all across the Indian Ocean Region seem

to have become permanent features of the region. Besides, possession of

the Weapons of Mass Destruction by the region’s contesting nations with

divergent outlook and conflicting strategic cultures has an unusual impact

in the regional security dynamics. The order of the world is in rapid

transition and over the recent past decades power centres have been

shifting from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific, but transition process has

not finished yet and things are unsettled up till now. Various divergent

forces are at play and a great game is underway to gain maximum out of it,

thus making the phase very risky.

Conclusion

Expansion of India in the Indian Ocean Region is a security dilemma.

India is acting as an offensive realist power the way it is rapidly expanding


39

its weapon arsenal and military capabilities which has now become a

permanent feature of the region. This has created a perpetual security

dilemma leading to an unending arms race. Nuclearization and

militarization of the IOR is an expected outcome of this security dilemma

entailing arms race. Nuclearization, along with nuclear arms race,

particularly induction of the destabilizing weapons such as Ballistic

Missile Defense Systems, nuclear-powered submarines and many others

has further complicated the situation creating a real risk of deterrence and

strategic instability. All these developments in the IOR have permanently

uprooted the chances of the Indian Ocean to become a Zone of Peace – a

dream which was once visualized by the regional stakeholders.


40

Implications of Pakistan’s Maritime Blindness –

Lessons from China’s Maritime Strategy

Ambassador (R) Ghalib Iqbal*

Abstract

Since its inception, Pakistan has been more into land battles and

neglectful of the importance of maritime. This has caused Pakistan to

suffer from maritime blindness despite the fact that it inherited a maritime

legacy. This paper primarily examines the implications of maritime

blindness for Pakistan and draws lessons that Pakistan can learn from

China’s maritime strategy. In this study, the historical context of

Pakistan’s maritime blindness is analyzed with reference to the decline of

the Mughal Empire and the advent of the British East India Company in

the subcontinent. This paper further explores the reasons of why Pakistan

kept putting maritime affairs on a back burner throughout its short history

and how these matters have hindered Pakistan from achieving its desired

objectives in maritime domain. While discussing maritime blindness, the

paper also incorporates a comprehensive analysis of its implications for

Pakistan’s Navy and industries. This study concludes with the

recommendations and lessons which can be learnt from China’s maritime

strategy.

* The writer is a former naval officer and an engineering graduate. Mr. Iqbal joined the

Foreign Service in 1983 and served as ambassador of Pakistan to many foreign

destinations. He is also a recipient of Civil awards of Spain (2011), “Ordendel Mérito

Civil”, and Italy “Stella d’Itlia” (2012).


41

Introduction

Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan was embroiled into certain

insecurities. Its hostile neighbor, India, soon after the independence

forcibly annexed Kashmir, Hyderabad and Goa. The partition had put the

newly formed country geographically in a unique position as the country

was divided into two units; each was lying on either side of India. On the

western borders, an unaccommodating and belligerent neighbor,

Afghanistan, coupled with the former USSR ambitions to reach hot

waters, further added the security apprehensions. Whereas on the eastern

side, it was India which was eying at the nascent state and aiming to

debilitate Pakistan so much so that it would beseech India to take it back.

In this situation where Pakistan was already surrounded by hostile

countries and deprived of receiving its due share after the partition, the

Pakistan Navy started its journey of equipping itself with modern

weaponry and becoming a potent force that could safeguard national

maritime interests of Pakistan. At that time, the navy had only sixteen

ships and ninety two commissioned officers. Despite having a modest

force in the beginning, a visionary man – Admiral H.M.S Choudhry – who

was the first Pakistani Commander in Chief envisioned the need for

having a strong navy that could protect maritime interests of the nation in

the long run. This need was also felt because of the fact that the two wings

of Pakistan were separated by the 3000 miles sea route that served as the

only reliable means, in times of war and peace, through which both far-


42

flung wings were able to maintain bilateral communication and

transportation of goods and services.

In contrast to the defence doctrine advocated by Admiral

Chaudhry, the then C-in-C Army General Ayub believed otherwise.

Having a typical continental mindset, he was of the opinion that the

strengthening of the western wing of Pakistan would guarantee the

defence of East Pakistan. Hence, he disregarded the need for keeping sea

routes open in the time of hostility with India. General Ayub thought the

war with India would not last very long and, thus, he dismissed the idea of

protecting the 3000 miles of sea lanes. Since then this idea emerged that

Pakistan could conquer Delhi and reply strongly to any Indian aggression

if it had a strong and tough land force. Consequently in view of these

events, Admiral Choudhry resigned in protest. But the latter events proved

that General Ayub’s concept was faulty and based on misconceptions.

Ayub’s defense concept was exposed but at the cost of huge loss. This

trend of sea- blindness continued in subsequent military and political

regimes. Unfortunately, still Pakistan stands at the same place, where the

land based security is more important thereby impeding the concerned

authorities to understand the importance of maritime.

Historical Context of Pakistan’s Maritime Blindness

Pakistan though inherited a rich maritime legacy, it has been suffering

from maritime blindness since its inception. Our population – a martial


43

race who won freedom from British clutches – was more into land battles

and neglectful of any knowledge related to maritime issues. It is a known

fact that the British conquered the far-flung corners of the world and

established their hegemony by securing significant sea lanes for their

commerce. Their Navy had a sway on those waters and protected their

commercial interests for centuries. The East India Company which started

off as a small trading company in the early 17th century and sought trading

concessions from the Mughals soon engulfed the whole empire, drained

the empire’s resources and brought down the Mughals on their knees.1The

craftsmanship of the Indians were quite famous all around the globe and

the English traders were fascinated by these refined crafts. The Mughal

emperor, Aurangzeb, was the only ruler who was able to grasp the ploy of

the English traders. He attempted to reduce the losses but failed, and

eventually the land trade routes diminished and the Mughals collapsed.2

This deteriorated the Mughals’ authority which was challenged by the

centrifugal forces led by the Marathas and the Sikhs, and the Mughals

could not resist them for long.

The decline of the Mughals was due to the fact that they were more

driven by landward concerns and developed the cities inward. They built a

strong military force at the expense of ignoring a huge coastline belt which

could provide them ideal strategic positions with regards to exploiting and

protecting major trade routes. The sea blindness and lack of interest in

1 Philip Lawson, The East India Company: A History (London: Routledge, 2014), 122-

130. 2 Shireen Moosvi, "People, Taxation and Trade in Mughal India," Indian Historical

Review 37, no. 1 (July 2010)


44

maritime thus crippled them, providing the outside powers an opportunity

to exploit Indian resources first and then gradually secure a strong

foothold. The Portuguese were the first to land in India, later the Dutch

and finally the English enslaved the entire region.3

The British, clever and crafty, didn’t assemble any valuable

maritime infrastructure. Rather, they used what was built and left over by

the Portuguese and the Dutch.4 Building their sea-lane prowess and

establishing a chain of fortifications on land helped the Portuguese to gain

supremacy over others. In order to build their hegemony in the Indian

Ocean, they chose Goa as their capital which was strategically lying near

the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

During the British rule, industrial and technological investments in

the land today called as Pakistan was negligible. The investments were

worthless, and all this was done quite deliberately and intentionally. The

basic reason of depriving today’s Pakistan of industrial investments was to

encourage cotton producers in Indian Punjab to grow cotton more and

more so that the supply of cotton to cotton-starving textile industries in

Europe could not be disrupted. Another reason was to build an army

comprising indigenous people who could be called to fight the wars of the

British Empire and protect the empire’s imperial interests in Burma,

Africa and other places.

3 O.H.K. Spate and A.T.A. Learmonth, India and Pakistan: A General and Regional

Geography (London: Routledge, 2017), 344-357. 4 Kerry Ward, Networks of Empire (Cambridge University Press, 2009), 251-260.


45

The British understood the strategic importance of this region.

Whatever they built was based around the coastal line. Thus, they also

comprehended the strategic importance of Karachi and the Makran coast.

This comprehension is reflected in a memorandum supposedly written by

Lord Mountbatten on May 19, 1948: “Among all the important Muslim

belt, the Western Punjab, the Indus Valley and the Baluchistan are vital

strategic points. They are the primary defence points. Opponents can only

take effective measures through the open waters of Karachi. If the British

Commonwealth and the United States want to protect their vital interests

in the Middle East, then the best and stable location for defense is the

Pakistani territory. So, it is the location of Pakistan that is keystone of

strategic arch of the wide and vulnerable waters of the Indian Ocean.”5

Major Reasons for Maritime Blindness

In essence, the major reasons for maritime blindness are:

Pakistan has inherited the continental mind-set of living off

the rivers and plains rather than the seas.

Pakistan’s coast is scantily populated except Karachi while

coastal towns of Gwadar and Pasni lack drinking water.

History taught to students at school and college level neglects

the role of sea power in nation-building and mostly highlights

the wars fought on land.

5 Ian Copland, "Lord Mountbatten and the integration of the Indian states: A

reappraisal," The Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History 21, no. 2 (1993): 385-

408.


46

Pakistan has been facing security threats right from its

independence, hence, could not spare enough financial

resources for the maritime sector.

Policy makers lack the required knowledge of maritime

affairs.

Lack of communication networks and basic facilities along

the coastal belt has exacerbated the situation.

The maritime sector’s development has been thwarted due to

the absence of maritime legislations. The first ever maritime

policy was issued in 2002.

Pakistan failed to understand the benefits of its maritime

geography, nor comprehend true potential of its maritime

power as defined by Admiral Mahan.6

Implications of Maritime Blindness

Prior discussing the impact of maritime blindness, it is important to have a

quick look at maritime strengths of Pakistan which is gifted with

approximately 1,050 km long coastline. In terms of coastline length,

Pakistan is ahead of 68 countries out of 142 coastal states. Pakistan is

situated along the important sea trade routes and lies near the Persian Gulf

in the North Arabian Sea. Pakistan is also blessed with Exclusive

Economic Zone and Continental Shelf where important activities

6 Vijay Sakhuja, "Pakistan's Naval strategy: Past and future." Strategic Analysis 26, no. 4

(2002): 493-507.


47

including fishing, mining, maritime research and oil exploration take

place. Approximately 150 million barrels of crude oil is transported

through the Persian Gulf lying right across the Pakistani coast. Moreover,

Pakistan provides China, Afghanistan and Central Asian states the shortest

sea route. This does not only highlight the importance of maritime

economic potential of Pakistan, but also underscores the geo-strategic and

geo-military position the country is gifted with.

Pakistan has suffered a great deal on account of decades-old maritime

blindness in the following domains:

Naval Forces: The Pakistan navy lags behind the Indian Navy in terms of

number of combat vessels, manpower and air assets. This is a sad reality

that Pakistan despite relying heavily on seaborne trade and having a fierce

rivalry with hostile India, has not invested as much on the development of

its navy as it should have keeping in view the scale of the country’s

maritime interests. Out of other reasons that have impeded the

development of the Pak navy from reaching its full potential, the primary

reason has remained the continental mindset of the ruling elite.

Our arch rival India is the most ambitious military player in the Indian

Ocean. India with its hegemonic Blue Water aspiration has spent lavishly

on its maritime capability. It has become one of the largest arms importers

and manufactures of modern ships and aircrafts, nuclear and conventional


48

submarines and aircraft carriers.7 In addition to numerous naval bases and

air stations along its own coasts, it continues to expand its arc of influence

by acquiring basing rights in other countries of the Indian Ocean Region

such as Mauritius, Madagascar, Seychelles, Iran and recently Oman.

Indian’s military intervention in neighboring states and its involvement in

regime change such as in Nepal, Sri Lanka and lately the Maldives may

have serious repercussions. The prevalent mindset amongst the state elite

here is what Napoleon once said, “Je veux conqueror la mer par la

puissance de terre” [I shall conquer the sea by the power of the land.]8

However, Napoleon did realize later that the upshot of the great wars

fought on land is eventually decided by naval strengths of the rival

powers. British Admiral John Fisher best summed up the importance of

Naval Forces in 1904:“If the Navy is not supreme, no army, however

large, is of slightest use. It is not the invasion we have to fear if our Navy

is beaten; it is starvation.”9

Ports and Harbors: Ports and harbors play a pivotal role in consolidating

a country’s economy and help countries prosper significantly. For sake of

comparison, India with 7500 km coastline has 14 major ports and 187

minor ports. Despite 1000 Km of coastline, Pakistan has only three ports.

Karachi and Port Qasim are the mainstay of our sea trade. Karachi port

presently handles 75% of the entire international cargo whereas the

7Sohail A. Azmie, "Maritime Security: Pakistan's Perspective," Defence Journal 21, no. 3 (2017): 71-72. 8 Nicholas A. Lambert, "Admiral Sir John Fisher and the concept of flotilla defence,

1904-1909," The Journal of Military History 59, no. 4 (1995): 639. 9Sohail A. Azmie, "Maritime Awareness in Pakistan." CISS Insight Journal 5, no. 4

(2017): 62-85.


49

remaining cargo is taken care by Port Qasim. Karachi port was established

in 1987. It has 27 general cargo berths and 3 dedicated container terminals

in private sector. It has been managed by the Karachi Port Trust (KPT)

under KPT Act, 1866. The Port Qasim Authority (PQA) was established

through an Act of the Parliament on June 29, 1973. The port became fully

operational by early 1983. It has total 10 berths, which are managed by

private sector, while Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is handled only by the

PQA. The Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) was established through GPA

Ordinance of 2002 and it became operational in 2008. It has 3 multi-

purpose berths. The China Overseas Port Holding Company (PCHC) is

operating Gwadar Port under the Concession Agreement. Despite the

advantages of geostrategic locations, our ports have poor hinterland

connectivity. Railway network is not well-developed, which accounts for

low participation of railway in cargo handling. Karachi port is relatively a

busy port and traffic congestion becomes one of its shortcomings. Labor

Union issues are there and ineffective resolutions are also one of the

weaknesses. The environmental effects of dredging process are

detrimental and their ineffective handling disturbs the marine life. Along

with environmental pollution, dredging issues are a common problem of

all these ports.

Mercantile Marine: Pakistan is de facto an island state as about 95% of

its trade and 100% of POL supplies are sea borne. It is mind-boggling that

a country relying heavily on seaborne trade could afford to ignore this all

important aspects of Mercantile Marine. In the beginning, there were only

four ocean going ships included in the merchant marine fleet of Pakistan


50

and all were small in size. This number later grew to fourteen in 1950 and

then swelled further to 71 in 1971. In 1974, the government nationalized

shipping and established Pakistan Shipping Corporation by merging nine

private shipping companies. Later in 1979, Pakistan Shipping Corporation

was merged with National Shipping Corporation to form the PNSC and

the combined fleet strength rose to a total of 74 ships. Since then, despite

enormous growth potential, the shipping sector of Pakistan is on the

decline. Right now, there are hardly ten ships included in Pakistan’s

merchant fleet (5 x bulk carriers & 5 oilers). Today, Pakistan’s annual

trade is about 100 million tonnes, of which, the national carriers carry

about 5% against world recommended 40%. Resultantly, the annual

freight bill exceeds US $4 billion, which accounts for huge financial losses

on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

CPEC & Maritime Security: Success of CPEC apart from other factors

depends on the provision of foolproof security both at sea and land. While

plenty of efforts have been made by the government including rising of a

new force to address the land based threats but maritime security remains

the neglected area. Pakistan’s maritime interests will expand enormously

once CPEC is fully operational. Moreover, in the new paradigm the

conventional state-based threats alongside Violent Non-State Actors

(VNSAs) and hybrid warfare is surfacing as the new phenomenon.10

Nowhere is this more pronounced than in the Indian Ocean and its

peripheries. Any incident or attack on ships plying to and from Gwadar

10 Inayat Kalim, "Gwadar Port: Serving Strategic Interests of Pakistan," South Asian

Studies 31, no. 1 (June 2016): 207-222.


51

port could prove a massive setback for CPEC. For some inexplicable

reasons, the government has apparently not yet accorded due focus to this

aspect. Since our maritime interests, especially the CPEC project, are

under hybrid threats, the Pak Navy being the ultimate sentinel of the

nation’s extensive and diverse maritime interests will have a major role to

play.11 In the absence of peace and stability in the region marred with

political volatility, success of CPEC may remain a pipe dream.

Blue Economy: Pakistan is gifted with 1000 km coastline that includes

the Exclusive Economic Zone (240,000 sq km) and the extended

Continental Shelf (50,000 sq km). This bodes well for a thriving Blue

Economy, but little has been done in this regard. The offshore region of

Pakistan consists of two basins, the Indus and Makran. The Indus basin

constitutes the 2nd largest delta system in the world after the Bay of

Bengal. The delta covers nearly 600,000 hectares and is rich in fish, oil

and gas, and is home to mangroves, which support a rich biodiversity that

is an important source of the food chain of the living resources in the north

Arabian Sea.12 It requires a thorough understanding of and the

commitment to the concept and concerted efforts with international

assistance to achieve the goal.

11 Baber Ali Bhatti, "CPEC and Maritime Security: An Analysis of Pakistan Navy's Initiatives." Defence Journal 21, no. 12 (2018): 40-41. 12 "History of Offshore Exploration Activities in Pakistan." LinkedIn. Accessed

January 9, 2020,

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/history-offshore-exploration-activities-pakistan-bilal-

akram.


52

Fisheries: Fisheries are responsible for providing around one fourth of the

global supply of animal protein. Pakistan is ranked 28th in terms of

production and 50th in terms of export but contributes only 0.27% in the

world’s export market which has a total volume of US$ 55 billion.

Fishery, if regulated properly, can potentially play far more important role

in Pakistan’s national economy and provision of food. It provides

employment to about 500,000 fisherman directly, whereas, more than 1

million people are employed in ancillary industries. There are about

20,000 fishing boats in coastal areas of Pakistan which operate in shallow

coastal waters, as well as in offshore areas. The Fishery sector in Pakistan

has the capacity to export fish worth US$500 million and concerted efforts

of the government can further increase this capacity. Fishing also depends

on quality of fishing boats. Pakistani fishing boats are of manual type and

very seldom use modern techniques for laying / recovery of nets or

trawling. The storage compartments are also of the old vintage as they

carry ice from the harbor.13 Pakistani trawlers don’t have fishery sonars or

other modern gadgetry for locating the fish stocks. Pakistan’s fish stocks

are also depleting due to various reasons such as excessive fishing, fishing

in the breeding seasons, the use of unauthorized nets, illegal fishing by

intruders, lack of political will by the government, lack of alternate jobs

for fisherman during off seasons, lack of use of modern technology and

non-supportive banking rules for small fisherman, and marine pollution.

The coastal areas of Pakistan are by far the most biologically productive

zones, endowed with rich, unique natural ecosystems that can contribute

13 Ahmad Rashid Malik, "The Sino-Pakistani Trade and Investment Relations." Margalla

Papers 17, no. 1 (2013): 201-221.


53

significantly towards national economy and growth. The fragility of the

coastal ecosystem and their interconnectedness requires a holistic

approach to be adopted to manage the complex ecosystem.

Ship Building Industry: Karachi Shipbuilding and Engineering Works

(KSEW) which used to construct vessels for Pakistan National Shipping

Corporation was as good as dead about a decade ago due to the neglect of

governments. At present, the KS&EW is being supported because of

orders from the Pakistan Navy. However, it requires governmental support

and mega investment from the private sector to upgrade its facilities.

Recently, the government has approved setting up of ship-repair facility at

Gwadar which is a welcome step as a large number of merchant vessels

traverse the nearby Gulf of Oman each day.14 These ships definitely need

routine periodical maintenance or even emergency docking at times. Such

facilities, both inside and outside the Gulf are limited and if Pakistan can

develop ship repairs and maintenance facilities on modern lines, inclusive

of skilled manpower, covered bays and synchro-lifts, it can easily fill the

existing vacuum.

Ship Breaking Industry: In the 1980’s, Pakistan was rated as 2nd in the

world for its ship breaking industry. Gadani has over 125 plots for ship-

breaking and capacity to produce more than 1 million ton of steel and

14 "Pakistan Approves Setting up New Shipyard at Gwadar | Hellenic Shipping News

Worldwide," Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic

and International Shipping, last modified March 22, 2018,

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/pakistan-approves-setting-up-new-shipyard-at-

gwadar/.


54

other raw material for domestic industries.15 Unfortunately, due to the

changes in tax regime during 1980’s, this industry came to a grinding halt.

However, in the recent past, some efforts have been made for its revival,

but again due to manual techniques, non-availability of new modern

equipment, poor safety standards and tax regimes, this industry is still not

viable. Workers are made to operate in extremely harsh and hazardous

conditions with negligible facilities; many deaths, through accidents or

exposure, go unreported. With the coming into force of the Hong Kong

Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships

2009 and new EU regulations discouraging its citizens from breaking

ships in countries not employing the desired methods of dismantling,

Pakistan would need to either conform or further lose its business.

Mangroves Forests: Pakistan has 6th largest Mangroves forest in the

world.16 They are home to several species of flora and fauna besides,

protecting the coast against erosion. It is estimated that 1 hectare of

mangrove could produce an annual yield of 100 kilograms fish and 25

kilograms shrimp. It is unfortunate that the true potential of mangroves has

not been utilized.

Non-Coherent Policy Approach: At present, we have dozens of different

maritime stakeholders to safeguard maritime interests of Pakistan.

Furthermore, the 18th amendment has also dealt a blow to administration

15 Sandra Richard, "A view of Pakistan's industrial development," Asian Survey (1965),

590-595. 16 "WWF-Pakistan Initiates 100,000 Mangroves Plantation Drive," Daily Times, last

modified August 23, 2019, https://dailytimes.com.pk/452892/wwf-pakistan-initiates-

100000-mangroves-plantation-drive/.


55

of the maritime sector in Pakistan as the maritime sector deals with the

outside world, whereas, provinces have been assigned responsibilities

prematurely.

Lessons from China’s Maritime Strategy

Over the last decade or so, China’s maritime strategy has revolved around

the following contours:

a. Modernization & Capacity Building of the PLA (Navy)

enabling it to accomplish regional and extra-regional ambitions

b. Maintaining Naval Presence beyond the Asia Pacific (Maritime

piracy operations off the East African coast and the Gulf of

Aden)

c. Domination of seas strategy as evident by its actions in the

South China Sea

d. Development of additional ports and bases

e. Development of Mercantile Marine Fleet (China is the world’s

largest ship builder)

f. The Maritime Silk Road Initiative

g. Enhanced focus on Blue Economy

It is glaringly obvious that unlike Pakistan, China has been focusing on

absolutely right areas in maritime domain. Adm Liu Huaqing; commander

of the PLA Navy (from 1982 to 1988), is considered to be responsible for

the modernization of the PLA (Navy). Liu entertained a vision of China as

a vibrant sea power whose maritime ambitions manifested themselves in a


56

navy capable of protecting seagoing trade and staking the nation’s claim to

great power status.17 It is known what our policy makers did as far as

capacity building of the Navy was concerned. Ironically, not much has

changed even now.

As her naval strength increased, China is adopting an increasingly

assertive attitude towards its maritime claims in the South China Sea. One

of the priorities of the Chinese maritime strategy is to protect its wealthy

South China Sea coastal provinces and the sea-lanes. The vast majority of

China’s energy imports and other goods pass through the South China Sea.

Pakistan needs to learn this and learn fast.

With no sustainable presence in the Indian Ocean, Beijing’s energy

imports are highly vulnerable in the event of military standoff with New

Delhi or Washington. Former Chinese President Hu Jintao talked of the

“Malacca Dilemma” and the need to secure China’s strategic and

economic interests in the region.18 This shows that only a potent Navy can

help protect maritime interest and Sea Lines of communication.

Conclusion

Pakistan is a bona fide maritime nation with wide ranging maritime

interests and objectives. There is plenty to learn from China’s evolution of

the Maritime Strategy. There is no denying the fact that maritime domain

17 Bernard D. Cole, "China's Maritime Strategy," Hampton Roads International Security

Quarterly (2002), 136-184. 18 "China's 'Malacca Dilemma?" Jamestown, last modified April 12, 2006,

https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-malacca-dilemma/.


57

is technology oriented and resource intensive. But the question is: can

Pakistan afford to keep neglecting maritime domain on one pretext or the

other? Lack of industries and resources in the past has also contributed

towards negligence of maritime affairs. This needs to be stopped now as

sea blindness has already cost Pakistan dearly.

To evolve a coherent maritime strategy, a concerted effort is

required to make up for years of neglect. Almost all elements of maritime

power warrant immediate attention not merely as defense imperative but

more importantly for huge economic benefits. Pakistan’s continental

orientation is not going to work in the new world order. Pakistani policy

planners, decision makers and intelligentsia have all realized the

importance of the maritime sector and shifted the focus to the Sea.

Changing mindsets is never easy, but hopefully the transition has already

begun, especially after CPEC. What needed now is to give it direction and

momentum. The point worth understanding is that building ports and

shipyards does not make a country a great maritime power; running them

well does. Having a vision is one thing; the trick lies in converting this

vision into a viable reality.


58

Plight of Fishermen Imprisoned in India &

Pakistan

Nida Hameed*& Ayesha Urooj**

Abstract

Pakistan and India often arrest fishermen of each other because of the

absence of a definite border in the Arabian Sea and fishermen not having

technology advanced navigation aided boats to know their exact

whereabouts, hence trespass into the neighbor’s territorial waters.

Unfortunately, due to sluggish justice system, fishermen end up locked in

jails for months or even years despite the fact that, twice a year, both the

states exchange a list of prisoners kept in each other’s custody. This study

assesses the plight of fishermen imprisoned in India and Pakistan in the

backdrop of the lingering coastal dispute between India and Pakistan.

Further, this study discusses United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS) violations by both states as well as highlights the legal

procedures followed in both the states and impediments faced by

fishermen in the respective countries. The conclusion is that the enduring

rivalry between India and Pakistan has led to the suffering of their people.

* Nida Hameed is Research Associate at Maritime Study Forum. Her M. Phil is from National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad, in Peace and Conflict Studies. Her

primary research focus is the ship-breaking sector and Coastal Development.

** Ayesha Urooj has done her Masters in History and M. Phil in Governance and Public

Policy. Her areas of expertise include policy evaluation, cyber security and digital rights.


59

There is a serious lack of effort into resolving the issue of imprisoned

fishermen in the long term. An ideal situation would be a minimum

hostility between the two countries, development of mutual trust through

Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and resolving the bilateral issues

in general and the Sir Creek issue in particular.

Introduction

India and Pakistan both lie along the Arabian Sea. Unfortunately, sea

border has not been clearly demarked between the two countries in the

Arabian Sea as India and Pakistan have neither agreed upon nor signed

any final pact to decide their maritime boundary. As a result, often Indian

and Pakistani fishermen fall prey to the fractured relationship between the

two neighbors. Destitute fishermen communities live along the coast of

Pakistan and India and are solely reliant on fishing for their livelihood.

Due to no demarcation, fishermen from both states end up crossing their

own water limits and enter the other country’s waters. In search of fish,

Pakistani fish catching boats go across the border and enter into Indian

territory in search of more valuable fish like squids, prawns, shrimp and

pomfret etc. whereas Indian fishermen also intrude into the Pakistani

waters in search of squid, ribbon fish, red snapper, tiger prawn, etc. This

crossing leads to their arrest and their boats confiscated. These innocent

fishermen from both the sides remain stuck behind bars for months and

years.


60

Every year, countless fishermen that sometimes mount to

thousands from both countries who not have boats endowed with the latest

navigational technology, while fishing, are arrested for trespassing into the

neighbor’s territorial waters. Their release completely hangs upon the

status of political tension or ease between the two neighbors at that

particular time. If their relations are hostile, chances of fishermen facing

awful circumstances in prison are high. This is reflected from an incident

that took place when India seized a cargo ship coming from Pakistan in Sir

Creek after the Mumbai Parliament attacks on charge of being involved in

suspicious activities. However, if both states are enjoying cordial

relationship then chances of release of fishermen are thick as this has

happened in the past many times when both countries released each

other’s prisoners in a quid pro quo as a good will gesture. Although such

occasions are few and far between, the release of prisoners as a confidence

building measure is always appreciable.

Further literature on the coastal communities and fisher folk of

South Asia generally limits itself to the ethnic and cultural descriptions –

concentrating on social activities, norms, customs, family structure,

knowledge and local patterns.1 There has been hardly an in-depth-study on

fisher folk imprisoned in India and Pakistan whereas major conflicts like

Kashmir have been discussed at various forums and their solutions have

also been suggested multiple times. Seldom does it that there is a mention

of the grave but dull events taking black along the sea border these

1 P. R. Mathur, The Mappila Fisherfolk of Kerala: A Study in Inter-relationship Between

Habitat, Technology, Economy, Society, and Culture (Trivandrum: Kerala Historical

Society, 1977)


61

countries, which are almost equally damaging to the fisher folk and have

dire consequences for these communities.2 The imprisoned fisher folk may

be invisible, marginal and poor, but they carry equal, if not more

implications for the coastal communities.3

This research paper is divided into three sections. The first section

examines the lingering coastal dispute between India and Pakistan. What

exactly is the nature of this dispute? And what is the significance of this

dispute with reference to the Law of the Sea? The second section reviews

UNCLOS and its violation by India and Pakistan. The third section

analyzes the legal procedures and impediments faced by fishermen in the

neighbor country. Finally, the article brings forth recommendations based

on the literature review for further research.

Disputed Coastline between India and Pakistan

India and Pakistan share a territorial border as well as a coastline. India

has a total coastline of 7516.6 km length, out of which the mainland

coastline consists of 6100 km and islands’ coastline consists of 1197 km.

Among the nine maritime states of India (Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat,

Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West

Bengal), Gujarat being situated on the western coast of India has the

longest coastline of 1,663 km which is one-third of the entire coastline of

2Charu Gupta and Mukul Sharma, "Blurred borders: Coastal Conflicts between India and

Pakistan," Economic and Political Weekly 39, no. 27 (2004): 3005 3 Gupta and Sharma, "Blurred borders," 3005


62

the country. The coastline of Pakistan extends to 1,050 km out of which

250 km falls in the Sind province and 800 km in Balochistan. A part of the

Sindh coastline is adjacent to that of the Indian state of Gujarat. There’s no

border between Gujrat and Pakistan’s Sindh provinces except marshland

acting as a mock border.4So far there have been no efforts to sign bilateral

pacts that can define the sea boundaries between both the counties. The

disputed Sir Creek is a real bone of contention between India and Pakistan

that has existed for decades and can be solved easily through

negotiations.5 The question is if it is so simple then why India and

Pakistan have not been able to resolve this boundary issue yet?

Sir Creek is a 96 km long estuary in the marshes of the Rann of

Kutch which lies on the border between India’s Gujrat and Pakistan’s

Sindh province. Basically it is a fluctuating tidal channel, not truly a

flowing creek, along which the boundary between India and Pakistan has

not been demarcated. Pakistan claims rights, in accordance with the

Bombay Government Resolution of 1914, on the entire waters surrounding

and fed by the creek. India, for its part, insists that it owns half of the area

on the basis of the Thalweg Doctrine pertaining to international law.6This

issue could have been easily resolved decades ago in 1965 when the Rann

4 "Away from the LoC, How BSF Has Secured the Natural Border between Gujarat and

Pakistan," The Economic Times, last modified July 13, 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/away-from-the-loc-how-bsf-has-

secured-the-natural-border-between-gujarat-and-pakistan/articleshow/55390784.cms. 5 "Sir Creek Dispute," Dawn, last modified May 22, 2011,

https://www.dawn.com/news/630814. 6 From the Newspaper, "Sir Creek Dispute."


63

of Kutch tribunal demarcated the boundary between Gujarat State and

Sindh.7

The Sir Creek dispute is mainly because of the fishing resources it

offers as it is considered to be one of the largest fishing grounds in Asia.

Moreover, it is rich in hydrocarbons and shale gas. This dispute is no

longer a land dispute, it is now a sea boundary dispute between India and

Pakistan. In early 1970s, there were negotiations regarding the law of the

Sea which resulted in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the

Sea (UNCLOS) in 1982. The UNCLOS defines laws and policies in order

to regulate all oceans, seas and uses of marine resources by establishing a

basic governing mechanism. It gives certain rights to coastal states:

1. Coastal states have the sovereign right over their territorial sea on

which they can establish a breadth but not more than that of 12

nautical miles;

2. Coastal States can exercise their right to build Exclusive Economic

Zone (EEZ) involving marine resources, economic functioning,

environmental protection and marine sciences research;

3. Coastal States have sovereign rights over the continental shelf (the

national area of the seabed) for exploring and exploiting it, up to

350 Nautical Miles.

7 A.Z. Hilali, "Confidence and Security Building Measures for Pakistan," Sage

Publications, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Apr.-June 2005), pp. 191-222 .

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40645155?seq=1.


64

Thus, this simple issue has become important after UNCLOS set the

rules. The Law of Sea allows shifting of resources on either side of the

border. In this backdrop, one can understand the approach of both the

neighboring states for arresting each other’s fishermen. By arresting each

other’s fishermen, they exercise their state sovereignty and claim that area.

The arrest of fishermen is basically an assertion of better title that both

states wish to claim rather than a show of enmity against fishermen.

There were various attempts made to resolve this dispute in the past

but unfortunately all went in vain. The failure of both the states to agree

upon a mutual understanding has dented the interests of both parties on

two levels: economic and humanitarian. The need for a definite sea border

between the two countries, which is essential to optimize the benefits of

marine resources, has been hampered from materializing under the UN

Convention of the Law of the Sea.8Thus, the prevalent standoff is

inflicting suffering on the daily life and economic activities of the people

in the sub-continent region who have their livelihood attached with

fishing. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, fisheries

contribute a considerable amount to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Last year, total 130,380 metric tons of fish and fishery products were

exported from Pakistan to the world including Europe. The total earning of

these exports valued at US$ 293.887 million.9 On the other hand, India’s

8Hilali, "Confidence and Security." 9 "Pakistan Economic Survey 2018-2019," Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan,

accessed December 26, 2019,

http://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_19/Economic_Survey_2018_19.pdf.


65

total export of frozen fisheries items was worth US$ 5.78 billion in the

year 2016-17.10

Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) can be a perfect medium to

achieve a breakthrough in the Sir Creek issue ─ less contentious issue than

Kashmir. CBM is an umbrella term that loosely defines all measures taken

to highlight, prevent and find solution to existing uncertainties among

countries. These are specifically customized to halt unwanted or wanted

conflicts, hostilities and escalation among states and help them build

mutual trust. CBMs can take up any shape or form ranging from formal to

informal, political, military, state to state, non-governmental. They can

involve one or more states ranging from unilateral to bilateral and

multilateral. CMBs hold great importance in putting the ages old political

stalemates onto the agenda setting and moving the national and

international machinery towards resolving those stalemates.11In the

interim, however, CBMs involving Sir Creek could improve relations and

overall management of the area. The UNCLOS has a provision for

creation of the Maritime Sensitive Zones under mutual agreement.

Primarily this is a legal issue not a political issue because it relates to

the application of various legal provisions and international conventions.

10 "Frozen Fish Export from India Continue to See Astounding Growth," Home - Trade

Promotion Council of India, last modified October 9, 2018,

https://www.tpci.in/blogs/frozen-fish-export-from-india-continue-to-see-astounding-growth/. 11 "Confidence-Building Measures, Center for Strategic and International Studies,"

Center for Strategic and International Studies, accessed December 26, 2019,

https://www.csis.org/programs/international-security-program/isp-archives/asia-

division/cross-strait-security-initiativ-1.


66

But to resolve this legal issue, political will is required which both the

states lack.

UNCLOS Violations by India and Pakistan

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1982

states: “Arrested vessels and their crews shall be promptly released upon

the posting of reasonable bond or other security. And, Coastal State

penalties for violations of fisheries laws and regulations in the exclusive

economic zone may not include imprisonment, in absence of agreements

to the contrary by the States concerned, or any other form of corporal

punishment.”

However, if the person caught is not found guilty cannot be held

for more than six months.12 Both the states have signed the UNCLOS but

openly disregard all the laws in this Convention. India captures most of

fishermen under its local Maritime Zones India (MZ) Act 1981 which

states that “where such contraventions take place in any area within the

territorial water of India, (they shall) be punishable with imprisonment.”

Whereas Pakistan arrests Indian fishermen under the Maritime Zone of

Pakistan Act.

The agencies handling the capture and captivity of fishermen on

both sides of the sea border are the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) and the

12 "Overview - Convention & Related Agreements," Welcome to the United Nations,

accessed December 26, 2019,

https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.

htm.


67

Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) respectively. These bodies

conduct operation in the sea waters and arrest persons who violate the

EEZ or maritime borders. After the capture, these bodies hand over these

people to the local police. They are sent to jail where they are left upon the

mercy of the sluggish justice systems and legal practices in the country

which has originally captured them. From that moment on, their plight

begins. Sometimes, they spend a lifetime in jails and often come home in

coffins. The reason is the due process not being followed by either of the

state.

Legal Procedures and Hurdles

Justice system and legal departments are almost the same in both these

countries when it comes dealing with the foreign prisoners; and the

situation further aggravates if a prisoner is from an enemy state. For the

imprisoned fishermen, the legal procedure is extremely complex and

sluggish that they must spend years in jails even before any charges are

proved on them. Furthermore, fishermen coming from poor class are

unable to prepare any defense against these cases as they are not provided

with counsels.

Several cases have come into light where innocent fishermen have

died in jails or released after decades of unimaginable torture. Recently a

Pakistani fisherman Noor-ul-Amin died in the Indian jail. The reason for

his death was succumbing to the injuries sustained during torture by the


68

jail staff. He was captured in 2017 by the Indian Coast Guard (ICG).13 The

most despicable thing during the whole episode was the fact that the

Indian staff did not even know his father’s name and the Fishermen

Cooperative Society in Pakistan had to search a few houses to approach

his family. It is evident that in such cases not only there is a lack of due

procedure, but also the already existing procedure is not even followed.

Had there been an FIR against the said fisherman and a proper charge

sheet, the Indian authorities would have known the exact father’s name.

Another sad case came into light recently when another fisherman named

Sohail Rasheed died in captivity in India. He was captured in 2016 by the

Indian Coast Guard (ICG).14 Same is the case with Indian fishermen held

in Pakistani jails.

In 2019, India gave a list of 347 Pakistani prisoners trapped in

Indian jails to the Pakistan High Commission, as a reciprocal gesture to

Pakistan handing over a list of 483 Indian fishermen to the Indian High

Commission. The lists included minors as well.15According to South

Asians for Human Rights (SAHR), “In Pakistan and India, there are long

bureaucratic delays during detention and some fishermen are not released

even after the prison sentence is complete due to delays in the

identification process of the relevant High Commission. In cases of death,

13 The Newspaper's Staff Reporter, "Pakistani Fisherman Beaten to Death in Indian Jail," Dawn.com, last modified March 27, 2019, https://www.dawn.com/news/1472049. 14 The Newspaper's Staff Reporter, "Pakistani Fisherman Dies in Indian Jail," Dawn.com,

last modified April 26, 2019, https://www.dawn.com/news/1478430. 15 Editorial, "Fishermen Released," Dawn.com, last modified April 9, 2019,

https://www.dawn.com/news/1474879.


69

the governments delay handing over the mortal remains to the country of

his origin.”16

Secondly, according to some academics, states do not own these

citizens. Fishermen communities are in general considered deviant and not

included in the society as other communities are. The state that imprisons

fishermen considers them poor and illiterate who would be involved in

espionage for their country in exchange for money. This is another reason

that fishermen are subjected to severe torture, violence and inhuman

behavior in both countries and India and Pakistan both seem reluctant to

fight their case and oblivious to their painful condition.

Recommendations

1. Fishermen got apprehended because they do not have proper

navigation tools that could guide them about sea borders. They

wander in the sea in search of superior quality and larger quantity

of fish. Both countries need to put special effort to increase the

literacy rate and expose fisher folk to new technologies that will

help them in navigation and put an end to their misery and

exploitation. This will bring peace, stability and better living

conditions in coastal areas of the region.

16 "SAHR Expresses Deep Concern of the Plight of Arrested Indian and Pakistani

Fishermen," South Asians for Human Rights, accessed December 26, 2019,

https://www.southasianrights.org/?p=12187.


70

2. A demarcated maritime boundary will make enforcing laws easier

for both states. This will end the plight of fishermen.

3. The police which charges the case and present the fishermen to the

court for further legal action is often corrupt and incompetent in

such incidents. It is unfortunate that the excruciatingly sluggish

legal process, both in India and Pakistan is causing pain to these

fishermen which needs to be improved.

4. It is a grave but undeniable fact that fishermen are used as pawns

to garner political gains and not treated as human beings. Not a

single imprisoned fisherman has been able to get a release through

justice system or legal process in the history of Pakistan and India

till to date. President or the Prime Minster of either country

announces the release of fishermen as a goodwill gesture

occasionally. This practice must end and fishermen must be

released through the legal process.

5. It would be a good practice for the states to issue orders not to

arrest fishermen unless they are proven to be involved in illegal

activities like narcotics trafficking, smuggling, etc. It happened in

1990s when the Prime ministers of both the countries were about

to reach an understanding however, the political environment was

not conducive, and the plan could never materialize. It may be an

ideal solution which would require extensive homework, but it has


71

the greatest chance of ending the plight of fishermen on both sides

of the border.

6. Fishermen found in other country’s territorial waters be warned

and turned back to their respective country. This would require

rigorous patrolling.

Conclusion

Coastal communities in the third world countries cannot possibly survive

without fish resources. In case of Pakistan and India, poor fishermen have

inexorably been drawn in the sphere of enmity and bitterness, and are

repeatedly paying a heavy price of it. Although there has been much

politicization of the issue for political gains, there is a serious lack of

effort into resolving the issue in the long term. There are many loopholes

in laws and policies regarding this matter which allow the continuous

exploitation of fishermen. A few steps can be taken in order to resolve the

issue. An ideal situation would be minimum hostility between the two

countries, development of mutual trust through CBMs and resolving the

bilateral issues in general and the Sir Creek issue in particular. However, a

humanitarian issue like that cannot wait this far and some immediate

action should be taken. It would benefit both countries if there was a clear

demarcation of the sea border to avoid further human rights violations and

future conflict as well. It is important that the foreign offices of both

countries should facilitate the dialogue process.

72

The Economics of Fisheries

Muhammad Saad*

Abstract

Today, fishing has been largely commercialized and considered a major

source of revenue generation. There are many studies that put light on the

size, policies, methods, etc. with regard to fishing. This paper, however,

will digress from such discussions on fisheries and attempt to focus on its

economic aspect because fish is a ‘common resource’ after all, and the

overexploitation of this resource can lead to devastating consequences for

the marine habitat. In this vein, this study will also take into consideration

the economic concept of the ‘tragedy of the commons’ and how it can help

us determine the economically viable and sustainable harvest levels of fish

for a given fishery resource. Lastly, this discourse will also bring forward

some viable policies that can be taken into consideration while harvesting

fish from a given resource.

Introduction

Fish can be considered an environmental good as fish are part of the

marine habitat and live on reefs as coral reefs are home to millions of

* Muhammad Saad is a graduate of Quaid-e-Azam University’s School of Economics.

His fields of expertise include Political Economy and International Relations.

73

species and contribute to biodiversity. In addition, fish are a valuable

consumer product as well as they contribute to the economic activities

carried out along coastlines around the globe. However, when fish is

consumed on an unsustainable level, it leads to depletion of this

environmental good and consequently collapsing the economic activities

associated with fisheries. Such a collapse is known as the ‘Tragedy of the

Commons.’

The original idea of the tragedy of the commons was presented in

his paper by Hardin in 1968.1 The word ‘commons’ used repetitively in

his paper is a reference to the resources in an area where everybody has

access to them. In economics, a commons is a non-excludable but a rival

good. Private property like a laptop is a personal thing: it is rival in a sense

that an individual can own it but others cannot, and it is ‘excludable’ when

that individual holds it in his bag and only he can have it and call it his

own. Unlike a personal thing, a commons is non-excludable. For instance,

there is a village in which people bring their sheep to graze on the pasture

(commons) as it is not a private property and is owned collectively by

everybody. If excessive sheep show up on the field and end up eating all

the grass, the tragedy of the commons would occur, and the tragedy

would, after a while, result in a situation where no grass would be left for

the sheep.

1 Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science, last modified December 13,

1968, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.

74

Literature Review

The concept of the tragedy of commons was first discussed by H. Scott

Gordon in his paper written in 1954 and titled “The Economic Theory of a

Common-Property Resource: The Fishery”.2 In this paper, Gordon talked

about the tragedy of the Commons as far as fisheries are concerned,

almost a dozen years before Hardin did, and it is one of the earliest papers

on the commons. He talked about methods to prevent the occurring of the

tragedy of the commons.

The proposition of the tragedy of the commons expounded by

Hardin in 1968 was confronted by Elinor Ostrom a few years later.3

Ostrom, a political scientist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics,

wondered what might happen in a real time situation when you get a

Commons and people have sheep. And to witness it in person, she went to

a place where people had Commons and sheep. She questioned them

regarding the management to sustain the commons, and they told her that

they had devised a way in which they managed to sustain their Commons

and keep the area within its carrying capacity.4 Later, she presented her

anti-thesis of the tragedy of the commons.

2 H. Scott Gordon, "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The

Fishery," The Journal of Political Economy 62, no. 2 (1954): 124-142. 3 Juan Camilo Cardenas & Rajiv Sethi, "Elinor Ostrom: Fighting the Tragedy of the Commons," Books & Ideas, last modified 12, https://booksandideas.net/Elinor-Ostrom-

Fighting-the-Tragedy-of-the-Commons.html. 4 David Sloan Wilson, "The Tragedy of the Commons: How Elinor Ostrom Solved One

of Life's Greatest Dilemmas," Evonomics, last modified December 4, 2019,

https://evonomics.com/tragedy-of-the-commons-elinor-ostrom/.

75

Ostrom’s solution is based on an institutional or collective

community solution and involves converting the non-excludable, rival

good into a non-rival and excludable good by making it a “club good”. It

means that to use a particular good, one must be a member of the club. So,

it is possible to turn a fishery or a landscape excludable and non-rival by

restricting the entry of non-locals and not letting too many sheep on the

commons. Alternatively, such common pool can also be transformed into

a “private good” which is going to be excludable and rival. The private

good solution can be achieved by sectioning off the commons into a

private property. This can be done by dividing a pasture into individual

sections so that the consequences of overutilization will not be suffered by

all persons using the pasture. So, privatization is what Ostrom mainly

discussed in her paper and this is how a lot of fisheries management

solutions developed.

There are three stages of fisheries. First, let us assume there is a

specific amount of biomass given to several fishermen in such a way that

the amount of biomass is greater than the number of fishermen as shown

in the arbitrary figure below.

Biomass Fishermen

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From an economic perspective, it is a non-excludable and a non-rival good

which is a public good. Anybody can go in to take the fish, and in the case

of fisheries, there are excessive fish in the biomass. So, as the first

fisherman shows up, he has a big catch and as more people show up, it

goes from being a non-excludable, non-rival good to being a non-

excludable and rival one; essentially a common pool good. The problem of

consumption would arise as the number of fishermen would increase while

the size of the biomass has remained the same. Hence, the fishery would

collapse because it was over-fished. Such was the case with the cod

fishery off the coast Canada.5 Furthermore, the fishery can be privatized

which is what has been done in various countries such as Iceland,

Australia, New Zealand and the US. Such privatization is usually known

as “individually transferable quotas (ITQs)”.6

An ITQ is basically the same idea as sectioning off that property or

land, except that rather than apportioning the land, the school of fish is

divided among all fishermen. Under the ITQ, individuals will get a limited

quota based on a regulation. For example, person A has done a certain

amount of fishing in the past. He will be given a quota that represents that

person’s past fish catch based on time period or weight. The allocation of

quota is necessary to maintain the sustainability of resources and avoid

agitation among the fishermen. Quota is based on past consumption /

production and the authority which issues the quota usually reduces the

5 Lawrence C. Hamilton and Melissa J. Butler, "Out port Adaptations: Social Indicators

through Newfoundland’s Cod Crisis," Human Ecology Review 8, no. 2 (2001). 6 "Shortcoming of ITQ Systems for Fisheries," Science Daily, last modified January 9,

2020, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180822150820.htm.

77

quota to keep it at a sustainable level. Sustaining the fishery at a maximum

sustainable yield is usually the idea but getting that right is difficult

because the biologists and the politicians rarely agree on the estimate

figure of this maximum sustainable yield. Consider the case of the

International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna (ICCAT)

which is responsible for managing the catches of Bluefin Tuna in the

Atlantic. In 2008, ICCAT scientists came up with a sustainable quota for

Bluefin tuna catch stating that it should be set between 8500 to 15000

tons. Instead, the commission adopted a quota of 20,000 tons which

destroyed the Bluefin tuna stock in the Atlantic. Henceforth, Carl Safina,

an eminent marine conservationist, labelled it as a disgrace and nicknamed

ICCAT as the International Conspiracy to Catch All the Tunas.7

The Abalone fishery in Australia issued quota permits which were

transferable and allowed individuals to buy and sell those quota permits

among each other.8 However, the regulatory authorities would reduce the

quota gradually to protect the commons. This increases the productivity of

the fishery when the quota reduces to a sustainable level. It is also a fact

that fisheries are also susceptible to physical shocks from time to time

which may require lowering the amount of fishing in the resource.

Nonetheless, quotas are expensive and new fishermen usually

complain that it is not fair for those who are new to the profession and

7Halaman. “The Collapse of the Canadian Newfoundland Cod Fishery.” Greenpeace,

May 8, 2009, https://www.greenpeace.org/archive-

indonesia/campaigns/Laut/seafood/understanding-the-problem/overfishing-history/cod-

fishery-canadian/ 8Halaman, “The Collapse of the Canadian Newfoundland Cod Fishery.”

78

have limited resources. Unfortunately, a quota is not set to help young

fishermen enter the business, but to maintain a fishery so that people can

keep consuming fish. In addition to this, quotas are expensive because

fishing is a very capital-intensive business and people who invest in it

expect some handsome returns.

Biological Aspects of Fish Stock

The economics of fisheries is multi-dimensional. It includes a direct

relationship between the growth of a fish stock and the maximum

sustainable harvest level. This is an economic aspect of fisheries which

includes total revenue, total costs, profit and policies to manage fisheries

sustainably.

The relationship between fish population and the growth rate at

different stages can be explained through visual representations as below.

When the fish stock is completely at its maximum carrying capacity, for

every new fish that is born in the population a fish dies to create a space.

At this stage, the biomass at point k of the carrying capacity has zero

79

growth of the fish stock. It suggests that the growth of the overall fish

stock is zero so much so that for every fish that is born, another one dies.

On the right of the b max point, as it approaches the carrying capacity,

there is not enough food and habitat for the population to grow anymore.

Meanwhile, to the left of the point b max, there is not enough fish stock to

multiply rapidly. Hence, b max is the maximum growth rate spot.

In the above diagram h max represents the harvest level which has a

corresponding growth rate of the fish stock associated with it i.e. the point

at which the dotted line meets the inverted-U fish growth rate curve. At

this point, fish would be replenished by the amount of the growth rate,

which is equal to the harvest level h-max.

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Point hs is the harvest level. Two biomass points, b low and b high, can

sustain it. hs intersects with b high at point A. It represents that hs amount

of fish can be harvested sustainably for an indefinite amount of time from

a biomass level of b high if the growth rate of the fish is A.

hs intersects with b low at point B. It indicates that hs amount of

fish can be harvested sustainably for an indefinite amount of time from a

biomass level of b low if the growth rate is B. If more fish is harvested

than the growth rate of biomass level at any given time, it would naturally

knock the overall biomass down because of lower restoration of fish stock.

In real time, the real size of the biomass is unknown and only an

estimation is made. For research purpose, it is considered that hs amount

of fish is being harvested every period.

81

The above diagram represents that the harvest level is higher than the

growth rate.

This figure underscores that harvesting more fish than the amount of

replenished fish at the same period will decrease the biomass. As a result,

the biomass shrinks.

82

It is also important to note that when harvesting surpasses the

growth of fish, the growth rate of the fish stock increases. This happens

because of less competition as the biomass carries far less fish than its

maximum capacity. The fish that are left have more food and more habitat

and therefore, the overall size of the fish stock increases rapidly.

If harvest level remains at hs while the biomass level is somewhere

between b-low and b-high, the growth rate of the biomass is above the

harvest level. It specifies that during this period more fish are being added

to the biomass than those being harvested. Therefore, leftover fish will be

added to the biomass and the overall biomass will grow and will move

towards the right side. In the second period afterwards, the harvest level

will again be less than the biomass growth rate.

83

If the biomass is anywhere between the range b-low and h-high where the

harvest level is less than the instantaneous growth rate of the fish stock

then the biomass will keep growing until reaches at the level h-high of the

biomass where the growth rate is equal to the harvest level in a stable

condition.

84

In the previous diagram, the harvesting is at the level hs, but the growth

rate of the fish stock is lower. This means more fish are being taken out of

the biomass than being reintroduced, so the biomass is going to shrink.

If harvesting more fish than the fish being reproduced in the biomass

continues in the same manner, it will further shrink the biomass and b high

will move towards b low until it reaches zero. That will essentially

decimate the fish stock and drive it to extinction (Figure 9).

85

It is also important to note that at all points on the growth rate curve, more

fish are being harvested than what can possibly be reintroduced back into

the biomass. Therefore, it will shrink all the way down to extinction.

If the harvesting is inside the danger zone h1, the biomass happens to be

low already. It just cannot sustain a harvest level that is greater than its

own growth and will decimate it down to nothing. Hence, the higher the

harvest level the greater the danger of biomass getting extinct.

Economic Aspect of Fish Stock

The economic aspect of fisheries can also be explained through this visual

representation:

86

At the point of origin, there is zero cost and zero effort. This means that

there are no boats and nobody is going to the water; therefore, there is no

revenue. But as the level of fishing effort increases, there will be more

boats and more people who will spend more time in the water.

The total revenue curve seems quite different from the traditional

economic total revenue curves and it is noteworthy that it has the same

shape as the overall growth rate curve of a fish stock. This is because at

any level of biomass where the harvest level is sustainable, a certain

amount of fish that is caught will be brought back and sold, and this

process will continue. So, at the start of this process, we would be

chipping some of this stock and getting some revenue from selling those

fish. Increasing the fishing effort would drive that stock down into smaller

size. Even though the sustainable harvests can continue, but the fish stock

there has gone down to very few numbers. Therefore, if sustainable

87

harvesting continues, the total revenue is lower as one moves along the

total revenue curve.

Total cost (TC), which is a straight line from the origin that

intersects the total revenue curve at some point. Every time people go out

fishing, there are associated costs incurred while purchasing nets, fuel,

time and labor, etc. If each unit of fishing effort has a cost associated with

it, then more the fishing effort the higher will be the total cost.

E-max is associated with the maximum harvest and is the level of

fishing effort associated with the maximum harvest. So as per that

diagram, harvesting at “h-max” from the “biomass-max” level of fish

stock is associated with the “E-max” level of fishing effort with associated

costs and revenue. As profit is total revenue minus total costs, so the profit

here is the difference between the TC and TR curves, i.e. the line between

points A and B.

In terms of profit maximization, if there are fewer fishing efforts,

consequently, there are lesser associated costs and the difference between

the total revenue and the total cost is the greatest; hence, the profit too. It

can be concluded that cutting down a little bit of harvesting at the

maximum sustainable would give out more fish and more revenue with

less effort and greater sustainability of the fish stock.

If the cost curve moves up, the greatest distance between the TR

and the TC curve is observed and the point of profit maximization also

shifts. It can be concluded here that anything that raises the total cost of

88

fishing effort, reduces the economically efficient level of fishing effort or

the profit maximizing level of fishing effort. If the cost goes down, the

shift in fishing efforts will also be observed.

Findings

Fisheries are a common resource that need to be dealt with appropriately

in order to avoid the tragedy of the commons. There are different points at

which fisheries can be harvested sustainably. As it was deduced from the

Total Revenue and the Total Cost curves that anything that raises the total

cost of the fishing effort also reduces the economically efficient level of

the fishing effort or the profit maximizing level of the fishing effort.

Moreover, anything that lowers the total cost of the fishing effort increases

the economically efficient level of the fishing effort or the profit

maximizing level of fishing effort. Harvesting a little less than the

maximum point ensures sustainability of the biomass, prevents its

decimation and maximizes profits.

Policy Recommendations

A quota may be introduced on the total amount of allowable catch

or the total authorized catch. Scientists would typically try to

estimate the overall biomass and determine what the maximum

sustainable yield would be and then the regulator would make sure

that the fishermen who are involved in that industry do not catch

any more than the overall authorized catch. This can either be done

through license purchasing or purchasing some other type of total

89

volume. These licenses can also be associated with a certain

overall amount of catch and once that license limit is reached,

further purchase can be managed accordingly.

A regulatory report may be maintained about what species were

caught; where they were caught and at what time of the year they

were caught and so on. This helps a regulator to understand how

many fish there are and how much effort is being made to catch

them and what the overall total harvest level was. They can then

compare these figures to the previously determined total allowable

catch and as it approaches a total allowable catch, they can take a

number of steps such as stopping people from fishing if it happens

regularly year after year. The regulators can then analyze whether

there are too many boats for the total allowable catch or too many

licenses and the regulator could then go in and try to purchase back

some of those boats or licenses.

A different way to manage these fisheries is by having seasonal

closures. Typically, fish have a breeding season and it is therefore

advisable to not harvest them during that particular season.9 Hence,

seasonal closures are also very common and it just means that for a

particular time of year, no fishing is allowed in certain areas.

Another approach would be geographic closures which are

associated again with the breeding areas for fish. These closures

9 Michael E. Soule, "Place-Based Ecosystem Management in the Open Ocean," in Marine

Conservation Biology: The Science of Maintaining the Sea's Biodiversity (Washington

D.C: Island Press, 2005), 302-325.

90

would be something like closing down particular locations in the

ocean for fishermen so that fish are just protected in that location

and once they increase in size, then they are spread in the ocean

and that is where people are allowed to catch them.

In addition, another approach would be to have conservation areas.

Conservation areas are more permanent locations that are close to

fishing, and once again they tend to be associated with breeding

areas of fish and other crucial habitat areas. By protecting those, it

can be ensured that the overall fish stock has a greater chance of

not being overfished.

Moreover, another strategy that can be used is the employment of

technology rules and this can include both positive and negative

lists. For example, the fishermen might be allowed to use a gill net

with a 10 centimeter square net opening or they might be allowed

to use certain long liners with hooks. So, a positive list means that

fishermen can use anything on the list. Meanwhile, a negative list

refers to those things that the fishermen cannot use. For example, a

negative list might mean that fishermen cannot use a barb on the

hook, or they might not be able to use a Seine or that they can only

use a drift net or that trawling is not allowed in the marine

fisheries.

Educating the consumers and people involved in this industry is

very important. For example, telling consumers about the level of

91

fish stocks and their health and encourage or discourage them from

consuming certain fish. Advocacy groups, as in the United States,

which give out a little card telling consumers not to eat certain fish

can be quoted here as an example. Hence, it is a way of telling

consumers who are not familiar with the state of different fish

stocks; which fish stocks are healthy and which ones are to be

avoided. Part of that process could even include certification

labeling. This certification would be an independent organization

looking after a particular fishery and determining whether or not

that fishery is fished sustainably. And if it is being fished

sustainably, then that independent organization will give its

authorization to use its label and certification. This is what

organizations like Marine Stewardship Council does. It certifies

seafood and indicates that seafood is going through a process of

auditing and verification; and this certification is going to make

sure that these food resources are properly managed.10

A rather unconventional strategy that can be adopted is a limit on

the total amount of horsepower on the boat. Capping the

horsepower will make sure a boat goes out more slowly and it

cannot go far away. Thus, it increases the overall cost of going out.

In the future and long term, taxes would be another way of

managing fisheries. However, a tax would increase the total cost

10 Beth Fulton and Tony Smith, "Ecosim Case Study: Port Philip Bay, Australia," The

Use of Ecosystem Models to Investigate Multispecies Management Strategies for Capture

Fisheries 10, no. 2 (2002): 83

92

and the curve up will shift upwards to the left. By doing that, as

seen in the previous examples, the total cost would go up and the

economically efficient level of fishing effort would go down.

Examples of this might be a fuel tax which will make the cost go

up and the level of fishing effort to go down.

In practice, what happens is that the policies to manage fisheries are sort

of coming under pressure from different sides i.e. pressure toward

sustainability and pressure towards over exploitation. So in terms of

sustainability, the paper has carefully managed or scientifically researched

total allowable catches. Sustainable approaches might include licensing,

limits on the number of boats, seasonal and geographical closures,

technology rules, and conservation areas. These strategies can be utilized

when the fishery is within the territorial waters of a country. Hence, within

the ocean area around Australia, for example, Australian regulators can

actually go and regulate their fisheries.11 In other situations where there

are open ocean fisheries, it can be more difficult because no country can

actually manage and regulate it effectively. So in international waters, as

is commonly the case in the North Atlantic and even off the coast of

Australia, there is often a lot more pressure on fish stocks because

countries have a hard time agreeing to the distribution of allowable catch

11 Wilson, Douglas Clyde, Jesper Raakjaer Nielsen, and Poul Degnbol, “The fisheries co-

management experience: accomplishments, challenges and prospects,” Science &

Business Media, Vol. 26,(2003)

93

even if the cumulative total of all of their individual catches exceeds the

maximum sustainable catch.12

It happens that many times governments and politicians are

interested in helping out their particular constituency near the fishery,

especially if they are areas with high unemployment rate or they are

remote rural areas. So, often there are development projects and other

policies put in place to try to help out those folks with their livelihoods.

These measures could be like fuel subsidies and if we decrease the cost of

fuel, the economically efficient level of fishing effort will increase. Hence,

lower the costs harder the people will fish and for longer periods too.

Lastly, there are different sets of policies and practices that

authorities may adopt for sustainability. On the one hand, there are the

closures and the technological limits but at the same time other economic

subsidies and low-interest loans and other incentives increase the level of

fishing effort which create quite a complex situation. The key is to find a

balance in between all the possible options so that not only the fisheries

remain sustainable for longer periods, but they also remain economically

attractive for the fishermen.

Conclusion

It has been established that fisheries are a common resource that need to

be dealt with appropriately in order to avoid the tragedy of the commons.

12 Lars H. Gulbrandsen, "The Emergence and Effectiveness of the Marine Stewardship

Council," Marine Policy 33, no. 4 (July 2009): 654-660.

94

Moreover, there are different points at which fisheries can be harvested

sustainably. In addition, it was also deducted from the Total Revenue and

the Total Cost curves that anything that raises the total cost of the fishing

effort, reduces the economically efficient level of the fishing effort or the

profit maximizing level of the fishing effort. Similarly, anything that

lowers the total cost of the fishing effort increases the economically

efficient level of the fishing effort or the profit maximizing level of fishing

effort. Lastly, there are different sets of policies and practices that fisheries

may adopt for sustainability. On the one hand, there are closures and

technological limits that can be put into effect, while on the other hand,

economic subsidies and low-interest loans and other incentives increase

the level of fishing effort which create quite a difficult situation. The key

is to find a balance in between all the possible options so that not only the

fisheries remain sustainable for longer periods, but they also remain

economically attractive for the fishermen.

95

Coastal Tourism and the Threat of Climate

Change

Muhammad Ammar Alam*

Abstract

With the growing dependence of coastal countries on their tourist facilities

for higher economic dividends, there is a general rise in the need to know

about the changing climate and its effects on coastal environments. The

scope of this paper is to emphasize the relationship between coastal

tourism and climate change, devastating effects that the climate change

can have on coastal areas in light of various case studies, and economic

costs incurred by coastal countries while facing climate change. The

paper will conclusively try to answer whether coastal tourism can sustain

climate changes in the coming decades.

Introduction

Coastal and marine tourism is a fast growing sector which involves heavy

investments while offering high economic benefits. For it to sustain,

coastal and marine environments require specific weather conditions and

complimenting infrastructure. Unfortunately, climate change is taking its

toll on both. Up till now, major studies on climate change and tourism

* The writer, Research Associate at Maritime Study Forum, is a graduate of Quaid-e-

Azam University Islamabad’s School of Economics department.

96

have taken into consideration rather one aspect of the link between climate

change and tourism and ignored the diversity and specific weather

requirements needed to boost tourism.

Tourism is one of the major economic sectors in the world. Coastal

countries gifted with beautiful beaches and tourist spots make huge money

by utilizing their natural marine resources.1 To meet the growing demand

in this sector, these countries are now paying more attention towards

maintaining and improving facilities provided to tourists at beaches and

coasts. For example, Denmark’s national tourism policy (2006-2009)

identified coastal tourism as one of the three main strategic areas for future

investments and Mexico’s Ministry of Tourism was applying fast track

mechanisms to approve licenses for foreign investments in coastal zones a

decade ago.2

Researchers in the 1950s started taking interest in deciphering the

relationship between climate and tourism.3 Over the past years in the wake

of climate vulnerabilities, researchers have put efforts in comprehending

the impact climate change is having on the scale of tourism activities.4

1C. Michael Hall "Trends in Ocean and Coastal Tourism: the End of the Last Frontier?"

Science Direct, No:44, Issues 9–10(2001): 601-618,

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0964569101000710. 2 "Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges,” Western Norway

Research Institute, accessed January 7, 2020,

https://www.vestforsk.no/en/publication/climate-change-and-tourism-responding-global-

challenges. 3Bernstein L, Bosch P, Canziani O, Chen Z, Christ R, & Riahi K, "IPCC, 2007: Climate

Change 2007: Synthesis Report," International Institute for Applied System Analysis,

accessed January 7, 2020, http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8667/. 4 IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, accessed January 7, 2020,

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf.

97

Mirroring this growing interest, the United Nations World Tourism

Organization together with the United Nations Environment Programme

and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2007 summoned

the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in

Switzerland in which approximately 500 participants from 80 countries

participated. Delegations at the conference were of the view that the

tourism sector is highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and

global warming, which is already inflicting damage to the industry. The

declaration of the conference states: “the tourism sector must rapidly

respond to climate change, within the evolving UN framework, if it is to

grow in a sustainable manner.”5

The marine environment and coastal communities with special

reference to tourism are seriously being threatened by unprecedented

levels of climate change throughout the world.6 Despite this, researchers

that have traditionally studied the issues of coastal tourism have frequently

disregarded the problem of climate change. On the contrary, scholars

exploring problems of climate change and its impacts on tourism have

zeroed in on activities mainly related to sun & beach tourism because

understanding spatial behavior of visitors is pivotal for tourism planning

and management. However, other activities along coastal zones such as

sailing or marine wildlife sightseeing have received little attention.

5 PMB Group, "Report of the First Session of the WMO/UNEP Interg," Homepage E-Library, accessed January 9, 2020,

https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=20593. 6 "Developments in Tourism Climatology," Research Gate, last modified January 1, 2007,

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233758650_Developments_in_Tourism_Climat

ology.

98

In the past ten years, the earth has changed more than it had in the past

millennia. According to the statistics mentioned in a piece carried by The

Guardian, the current global warming rates are of significance because

many of these (more than 95%) are most probably the result of human

activities responsible for polluting the atmosphere since the mid-

20th century, and these changes are taking place at a shocking rate.7

This graph shows that for millennia, atmospheric concentration of carbon

dioxide had never been above the 300ppm line while today it stands at

400ppm line and is exacerbating every year. This level of increase in CO2

is causing the earth to warm up faster than it did in the years before.

This shows that the earth’s climate is changing in an

unprecedented manner and hence its implications cannot be completely

gauged. The global rise in temperature, if not contained between the limits

of 1.5-2 Degree Celsius, will cause the global ice caps to melt, sea levels

to rise, temperature of the earth to be warmer, species living in specific

7 Cath Levett, "The Climate Crisis Explained in 10 Charts," The Guardian, last modified

December 16, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/20/the-climate-

crisis-explained-in-10-charts.

99

environments to move to other regions or become extinct and

unpredictable weather changes and natural disasters will be rampant all

over the world.

Coastal Tourism Activities Neglected by Researchers

Extensive research is missing on coastal and marine tourism activities

such as windsurf, kitesurf, sailing, cruising, etc. This is the reason why the

effects of climate change on these recreational activities are unknown.

However, media outlets reporting climate change incidents and how

devastating such catastrophes have been for human population and other

living creatures, can give a glimpse of the horrifying impacts of climate

variability. For example, the sinking of a tourist cruise ship in the

Antarctica after hitting an iceberg and a glacier burst in the Arctic causing

injuries to tourists, both in 2007, or the recent wild inferno turning bushes

and trees into ashes in Australia are just a few to quote.8

Rise in Sea Levels

The rise in sea levels owing to thermal expansion caused by increase in

temperature of the oceans is very alarming. Scientists believe greenhouse

gases emitted by industries, locomotives, etc. are the prime reason of

oceans getting warmer.

8 "Weather Disasters and Costs," NOAA Office for Coastal Management, last modified

July 10, 2019, https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/weather-disasters.html.

100

The graph above shows the rise in sea levels that has been observed in the

past few years. After 2015, there has been a sharp rise in sea level, as

above as 80 mm while the average change in the last 20 years was 3.3 mm

per year.

Another graph below shows the projected rise in sea level by 2020.

Both these graphs show that due to rapid global warming and climate

change, the sea levels are rising every year faster than they did in the past.

101

Climate Change and Coastal Tourism Industry

Tourism is highly sensitive to changes climate is going through. Climate

has a significant impact on the environmental and social resources of

tourism and the ease and security of visitors. The degree to which the

coastal and marine activities are related to and dependent on weather

conditions and climate changes varies. To some researchers, the

relationship is direct and significant while others believe the relationship is

less obvious. This is why research and development on this segment of the

relationship has not been extensive. Due to this reason, it is hard to gauge

what possible treats, consequences or opportunities there might be for us.

Consequently, the existing research on this issue is unbalanced and lacks

solid foundation. Instead, attention has been more given on activities

where the relationship is fairly obvious.

Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Coastal Tourism

Many places around the globe are already facing the brunt of changing

climate with rising sea levels, increase in the frequency of natural

catastrophes which account for more than 60,000 deaths each year, and

major shifts in weather patterns. For example, let’s look at the impact the

change in climate has on the Caribbean, which is a popular tourist

destination. It has a huge influx of people visiting it every year. Most of

the Caribbean islands have absolutely no other means of generating

revenue except tourism because a good chunk of society is associated with

102

this industry. Hence, any danger to the tourism industry will potentially

rattle these economies to the core.

As shown in the graph, any small coastal state bears the cost of

approximately 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent of its GDP in case of any natural

disaster ranging from heavy rainfall causing rise in sea levels to strong and

violent winds, while the Caribbean bears approximately 1.75 per cent to

2.7 per cent of its GDP. This shows that, like the Caribbean, any

archipelago or island will be at a greater risk of being completely unsafe

for tourist activities in the next ten to twenty years as climate change will

cause major shifts in sea levels and the frequency of natural disasters. The

Mexican Gulf, coastal states of the US, coastal states of the world and all

the islands of the Caribbean are under a huge threat.

103

US Horror Story

In 2018, the USA went through a series of natural disasters triggered by

climate change. There were 2 cyclones (Florence and Michael), one

wildfire, eight connecting storms, one drought and two winter storms that

cumulatively cost the US exchequer $14 billion on account of

rehabilitation cost. In total, these incidents took at least 247 lives and had

losses approximated at $91 billion. Hurricane Michael and Hurricane

Florence, along with western wildfires, caused about $73 billion.9 Most

worryingly, these events took place one after the other. The zones barely

recovered from one hurricane when another hit. These disasters have rung

a bell of concern for the future of coastal and marine environments, in

specific, and for the world in general.

Hurricane Florence10

Location: Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina

Date: September 14, 2018

Deaths: 51

9 Doyle Rice, "Monsters Florence and Michael Powered the Deadly, Destructive Atlantic

Hurricane Season That Ends Friday," USA TODAY, last modified November 29, 2018,

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/11/29/hurricane-season-ends-florence-and-michael-left-death-destruction/2148341002/. 10 Umair Irfan, "Hurricane Florence Caused Up to $22 Billion in Damages. Climate

Change Made the Storm Worse," Vox, last modified October 3, 2018,

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/10/3/17925470/hurricane-florence-

2018-devastation-climate-change-flood-sea-level-rise.

104

Hurricane Michael 11

Location: Mexico Beach, Florida

Date: October 10, 2018

Deaths: 45

Western Wildfires12

Date: November 2018

Area Burned: 153,000 acres

Mortalities: 88

Structures wrecked: 18,000

The collective cost of the 16 separate billion-dollar weather events in the

U.S. in 2017 was $306.2 billion, breaking the 214$ billion mark. It is

estimated that Hurricane Harvey had cost $125 billion — second only to

Hurricane Katrina, which had a rough cost of $161 billion.13 The

following is an excerpt from a report published by the NOAA in 2018

regarding the record breaking statistics on the costs of the storms and

hurricanes in 2017.14

11 Richard Luscombe, "'Like an Atomic Bomb': Hurricane Michael Leaves Trail of

Devastation," The Guardian, last modified October 23, 2018,

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/11/hurricane-michael-trail-of-

devastation-florida-georgia. 12 "Wildfire Becomes Deadliest in California History," The New York Times, last

modified October 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/california-fires-

camp-fire.html. 13 Mindy Weisberger, "Harvey Vs. Katrina: How Do These Monster Storms Compare?"

Livescience, last modified August 29, 2017, https://www.livescience.com/60257-harvey-

vs-katrina-storm-comparison.html. 14 "Tourism," OECD.org - OECD, accessed January 7, 2020,

https://www.oecd.org/cfe/tourism/tourisminoecdcountries2008trendsandpolicies.html.

105

“Hurricane Harvey was a very significant tropical cyclone rainfall

occurrence ever recorded in the U.S. history, both in scope and peak

rainfalls. The highest total rainfall report from Harvey was 60.58 inches.

Prior to Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Harvey became the deadliest U.S.

hurricane in terms of direct deaths since Sandy (2012) and the deadliest

hurricane to hit Texas since 1919. It was the first category 4 hurricane to

make landfall in Texas since 1961, and the first category 4 to make

landfall in the U.S. since 2004. Lasting for 117 hours at a stretch, breaking

the last record for duration of Hurricane Fern in 1971.’’

Hurricane Irma: With maximum winds of 185 miles per hour, Irma

became the strongest storm on record to exist in the Atlantic Ocean

outside the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It sustained those

maximum wind speeds for 37 hours and spent three consecutive days as a

category 5 hurricane—making it the longest of any cyclone in the world

since 1932 to maintain that intensity.15 The occurrences of Harvey and

Irma—making landfall within two weeks of each other—were the first

time in recorded history that two category 4 or higher hurricanes struck the

U.S. mainland in the same year.

Hurricane Maria: Maria was the first category 5 hurricane ever to make

landfall in Dominica, and the strongest hurricane to make landfall in

15 Angelica LaVito, "Irma May Have Caused $42.5 Billion to $65 Billion in Property

Damage, Report Says," CNBC, last modified September 19, 2017,

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/irma-may-have-caused-42-point-5-billion-to-65-

billion-in-property-damage-report.html.

106

Puerto Rico since 1928. It was the deadliest of 2017’s three major storm,

with over 2,900 fatalities.16

Millions Powerless

Hurricane Maria ruined 80 per cent of Puerto Rico’s poles and all

communication transmission lines, resulting in the loss of power to all of

the island’s residents. All communication services were lost and water

supplies were wrecked. By the end of 2017, half of Puerto Rico’s residents

were still without power, and by end of January 2018, electricity had been

repaired and restored to about 65 percent of the island. 2018 marked the

eighth year with approximately 8 billion-dollar disasters, surpassing the

16 Jeff Goodell, "The Perfect Storm: How Climate Change and Wall Street Almost Killed

Puerto Rico," Rolling Stone, last modified September 12, 2018,

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-

damage-722570/.

107

long-term average of 6.2 per year. Of the 246 (as of April 2019) weather

disasters since 1980, tropical cyclones have caused the most damage:

$927.5 billion total, with an average cost of almost $22 billion per event.17

Urgent Need for Climate Adaptation

Climate variability has rapidly changed the coastal zone environments by

making them more vulnerable to damage and destruction as majority of

the coastal zones are lying around and below sea level. This is especially

visible along the coasts surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.

Moreover, this phenomenon is also present around coasts lying on the

South of Equator. Another major reason for coastal zone deterioration is

saline intrusion and soil collapsing. This is attributed to two things:

climate changes that are unpredictable and hence not well prepared for,

and rise in human settlements around the coasts. It is estimated that there

are approximately 400 to 500 million people living along the coasts.

Adding this population which is projected to grow to the burden of

increased tourism activities will further exacerbate the issues caused by

climate change. Thus, the level of effort and research that needs to go in to

make the coasts livable and sustainable again will have to be significantly

greater than it is today.

17 Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com), "The World's Deadliest Hurricanes, Typhoons and

Cyclones," DW.COM, accessed February 6, 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/the-worlds-

deadliest-hurricanes-typhoons-and-cyclones/a-45460388.

108

Creating Awareness to Deal with Uncertainties

Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting everyone in different

ways. And it is imperative that each and every one of us shoulders the

responsibility to help curb its damaging effects. Hence, community

involvement along with increased government interest in sustainable

policy making is a must for dealing with climate change. Today, many

private organizations have taken the responsibility to create awareness on

coral reef rehabilitation, ecology management and preserving water

sources from pollution. These initiatives have helped create a symbiosis

between the government and the public in saving the coasts from damage.

Projection of Scenarios

Researchers and policy makers often ignore or overlook certain angles of

climate change effects on coastal zones. This fundamental flaw then

causes problems in the future when unlikely damages take place. Thus, to

prevent this from happening, multiple scenarios should be projected before

any policy is made. For example, it is unlikely that sea levels will stop

rising any time soon. Thus, researchers and policy makers should keep this

scenario in mind and plan for any uncertainties that may arise with this

climate change consequence. The Monte Carlo method is one way through

witch this can be done. In this method probabilities are assigned to

independent variables. Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the

probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be

109

predicted due to the intervention of random variables.18 It is a

technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in

prediction and forecasting models. In this way, probabilities will be

assigned to random outcomes and the forecasts for natural events that

damage coasts will be inclusive of uncertainties.

The new and revised action plans and policies need to be robust

because they do not only have to deal with uncertainty related to future

climate effects but also consider future socioeconomic developments as.

Moreover, these plans must be flexible enough to incorporate new rules

and regulations so that they do not hinder new developments.

One way to deal with this problem of “robust decision making” is

the strategy of adaptive pathways.19 In this strategy, adaptation pathways

are established that consist of a series of actions. Each step of the series

must lead to a successful plan that can be adopted in the long run with

sustainability and can be changed with multiple scenarios that could play

out in the future. The most promising actions are those with the best

performance in terms of societal benefits and costs. When any plan needs

a follow up revision to adapt to changes, the lessons learned by doing and

the new knowledge of research serve as inputs for it. A refined version of

this approach – strategy of dynamic adaptive policy pathways – has been

used to support the Dutch Delta programme for adaptation to climate

18 Rohan Joseph, "The House Always Wins: Monte Carlo Simulation," Medium, last

modified December 24, 2018, https://towardsdatascience.com/the-house-always-wins-

monte-carlo-simulation-eb82787da2a3?gi=c41325c8a9c7. 19 Marjolijn Haasnoot, "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river

deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change 115, no. 3 (December 2012): 795-

819.

110

change.20 Thus, to prevent mishandling of any disastrous event and for

strategic actions to have significant positive impacts on coastal zones,

these adaptive strategies must be adopted.

Low-Regret Adaptation Strategy

Sometimes, strategies which are effective and reasonable do not cost a lot

of capital. Such strategies are called ‘no-regret’ strategies.21 Following are

some of its examples:

Choose building with nature solutions for renewing coastal

infrastructural works when they have reached the end of their life

span (e.g., wetland restoration, dune/beach/shore face

nourishments);

Adjust design criteria to extend the lifetime of infrastructural

works by incorporating the expected sea level rise in the periodic

maintenance / renovation scheme;

Make spatial reservations for nature development (or for other

temporal benefits) which can eventually serve later for future

reinforcement or realignment of coastal defenses

20 "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a

Deeply Uncertain World," ScienceDirect.com | Science, Health and Medical Journals, Full Text Articles and Books, accessed February 6, 2020,

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801200146X. 21 "Climate Adaptation Policies for the Coastal Zone," Coastal Wiki, accessed

February 6, 2020,

https://www.coastalwiki.org/wiki/Climate_adaptation_policies_for_the_coastal_zone.

111

Other no-regrets measures include early warning systems; risk

communication between decision makers and local citizens; sustainable

land management, including land use planning; ecosystem management

and restoration; improvements to water supply, sanitation, irrigation and

drainage systems; development and enforcement of building codes

(considering also geotechnical aspects) and better education and

awareness. Such measures deliver additional benefits, such as

opportunities for tourism, recreation, nature development and other

ecosystem services.

No-regret (or low-regret) measures are implemented step by step,

allowing for adjustment when better knowledge of the impacts of climate

change becomes available. They are preferably designed according to the

insight that natural dynamics generally offer greater long-term resilience

(self-regulating capacity) against climate change impacts than hard man-

made structures.

Conclusion

Coastal environments are among the most important areas for tourism and

recreational activities. Yet such environments are facing the brunt of

climate change which is happening faster than before. The physical

impacts of these changes include sea-level rise, erosion, more frequent

occurrence of extreme weather conditions, droughts, flooding and changes

in ecosystems’ arrangements. Despite the increased interest shown by

scientists, policy makers and researchers on dealing with the menace of

112

climate change, many activities and impacts remain virtually uncharted.

This article presents an overview of the existing knowledge on the impacts

of climate change on coastal and marine tourism activities. A number of

knowledge gaps have been identified. More research into specific

activities, interdisciplinary communication, stakeholder dialogue and

policies that incorporate climate into tourism planning and management

are necessary steps to minimize the potential impacts of climate change.

Moreover, Pakistan needs to step its game up in developing sustainable

recreational activities for tourism in its diverse coastal areas so that it can

generate hefty revenue and make a name for itself in the tourism industry.

Currently with the given scenic beauty of landscapes in the coastal areas

of Pakistan, this task will not be difficult provided there is considerable

community and government involvement through proper channels.

113

IMO 2020 – Step towards Cleaner Air

Muhammad Sarfaraz Alam*

Abstract Air pollution poses a serious threat to human life and lives of other

species living on the face of the earth. Since a new set of regulations to

control vessel emissions being implemented from January 1, 2020 by the

IMO (International Maritime Organization) and its relevant body

MARPOL, it is hoped that there will be a considerable improvement in air

quality. On the contrary, main players operating in the shipping industry

and the fuel industry are apprehensive of the IMO 2020 as they believe

such measures will make doing business costly. Here lies very pertinent

questions: can such kind of strict regulations be implemented worldwide?

And how much is Pakistan prepared for the task? This paper aims to

analyze the implications of these new rules.

Introduction

The IMO 2020 encapsulates the new stringent regulations for emission

control and new Sulphur caps for maritime trade, and are aimed to

encourage the use of compliant fuel or alternative methods to reduce

Sulphur-containing emissions. This set of regulations which is going to be

* The writer is doing LLM from Bahria University, Islamabad.

114

implemented from January 1, 2020 will have two-pronged effects on the

fuel industry and maritime trade. On the one hand, it will have a crippling

effect on the industry and not surprising if it is giving headwinds to the

stakeholders, while on the other, it is a beacon of hope for protecting

marine environment and improving air quality globally.

The limit set under the IMO 2020 for Sulphur content consumption

has been sharply reduced up to 77% from 3.5% million metric (m/m) to

0.5% million metric.1 This new limit will be applicable to all the seas and

maritime zones excluding the defined ECA (Emission Control Areas) of

coastal areas in different parts of the world where the Sulphur content

emission’s limit is even much lower i.e. 0.10% m/m. This will improve air

quality across the world and will help in coping with health hazards

caused by poor air quality especially in coastal areas where pollutants in

the air account for more than one lac premature deaths per annum and

many other pulmonary diseases like Asthma.2

Context of IMO 2020

Environment has always been one of the top priorities of the United

Nations since 1970s as this is reflected from the work of its specialized

programmes like the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme)

which assists developing countries in devising and implementing

1 "Air Pollution," IMO.org accessed December 23, 2019,

http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/A

ir-Pollution.aspx. 2 Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, "Air Pollution," Our World in Data, last modified

November 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution.

115

environment friendly policies. The UN has a specialized agency named

the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for dealing with issues

related to maritime including policymaking, trade, safety, law,

environment or other maritime related issues.

Under the umbrella of the IMO, the International Convention for

the Prevention of Pollution from ships, also known as MARPOL, was

adopted in 1973 and its protocol was brought in 1978. MARPOL 73/78

takes into account emission of pollutants from ships that takes place

through oil spillage, incineration, and discharge of noxious substances

from ships including ballast water or by releasing greenhouse gases i.e.

NOx, Sox or other ozone-depleting substances.3 MARPOL has six

Annexes and Annex VI which particularly deals with air pollution caused

by ships came into force in 2005.

The Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), a body

of the IMO, revised Annex VI in 2008 that entered into force in 2016.

Later, a new set of regulations for fuel to be used in ships was set and

Sulphur content limit was brought down to 0.5% m/m from 3.5% m/m that

will be implemented from January 1, 2020. Such a drastic change in the

limit for Sulphur content will better air quality by curtailing the amount of

a high Sulphur content called the HSFO (High Sulphur Fuel Oil).

According to new rules, ships are bound to use compliant fuel or

alternative sources to preserve the environment, and if they still prefer to

3 "Air Pollution," IMO, accessed December 23, 2019,

http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/A

ir-Pollution.aspx.

116

use the HSFO then they have to install the Exhaust Gas Cleaning System

(EGCS), commonly known as scrubbers, to curb the emission of Sulphur.

This will increase the operating cost manifold for ship-owners as installing

a scrubber requires huge investment.

Implementation of IMO 2020 Rules

As mentioned earlier, ANNEX VI of MARPOL 73/78 deals with air

pollution caused by ships. Air becomes polluted when ships release oxides

of Nitrogen and Sulphur, Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS), Volatile

Organic Compound (VOC) and emissions through incineration of waste

materials on ships. Out of all these toxic substances, the most hazardous is

Sulphur emission which is a result of very low quality fuel combustion.

The new limits set for Sulphur content is in the light of the IMO regulation

14 which states “SOx and particulate matter emission controls apply to all

fuel oil, as defined in regulation 2.9, combustion equipment and devices

onboard, and therefore include both main and all auxiliary engines

together with items such as boilers and inert gas generators.”4 Till

December 31, 2011 there was a 4.5% m/m ceiling on Sulphur content

consumption in fuel, but after January 1, 2012 it was reduced to 3.5% m/m

which is going to be further trimmed to 3.5% m/m from January 1, 2020.

As far as the limit for Sulphur content in the ECAs is concerned, it was

used to be 1.5% m/m till June 30, 2010 and it remained 1% m/m till

4 "Sulphur Oxides (SOx) – Regulation 14," IMO, accessed December 23, 2019,

http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/S

ulphur-oxides-(SOx)-%E2%80%93-Regulation-14.aspx.

117

December 31, 2014. Since then, the current ceiling i.e. 0.10% m/m has

been in practice.

Listed below are the total four ECAs established by different Annexes of

MARPOL:

1. The area of the Baltic Sea which is defined by Annex I of

MARPOL and it is only for Sulphur content (Sox).

2. The area of the North Sea which is defined by Annex V of

MARPOL and it is also about Sulphur content emission only.

3. The area of North America which is defined by Annex VI of

MARPOL and this came into effect after July 31, 2012. This

includes not only Sulphur content emissions but also Nitrogen and

Particulate matter emissions.

4. The USA and the Caribbean Sea area which is defined by Annex

VI of MARPOL and it incorporates not only Sulphur content

emissions but also emissions of Nitrogen from ships and

Particulate matter emissions. This was put into force after

December 31, 2013.

Now here an important question needs to be taken into consideration: how

a ship would be able to use two types of fuels in a single ship for different

areas? The answer lies in the fact that this will be achieved by switching

from one type of fuel to another, and shifting from the main engine to an

auxiliary engine as every ship has another engine other than the main

engine called an auxiliary engine. Thus, a ship before entering the ECAs

118

can switch from its main engine to the auxiliary engine and use compliant

fuel in that engine until it has left the defined emission control area and

reached an open sea or in the area which does not fall under the defined

emission control area of the sea.

The HSFO used in ships is the main ingredient that pollutes the

seas and coastal areas as polluted air travels to those areas and brings

venomous repercussions for human health. The IMO is all ready to get rid

of the HSFO and curb the consequences of using toxic fuel. Consequently,

it has made clear that the high Sulphur content carrying fuel will be

replaced with environment friendly fuel – also known as the Marine Gas

Oil and the ULSFO (Ultra-Low Sulphur Fuel Oil).

Why Is Sulphur Emission So Critical?

Out of all the greenhouse gases namely Nitrous oxide, methane, carbon

dioxide, and ozone, Sulphur oxide is the most poisonous for human health

as it causes many respiratory diseases and there are many studies available

which prove that Sulphur emissions are the reason behind 100,000 to

800,000 deaths a year in coastal areas across the globe which itself is quite

a frightening figure.5 According to a study conducted by Proceedings of

the National Academy of Sciences, in the USA alone each year 100,000

5 Damian Carrington, "Air Pollution Deaths Are Double Previous Estimates, Finds

Research," The Guardian, last modified March 12, 2019,

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/12/air-pollution-deaths-are-double-

previous-estimates-finds-research.

119

Americans fall victim to air pollution and die of pulmonary and heart

diseases.6

In comparison with other air pollutants emitted from other modes

of transportations, Sulphur emissions from ships are highly hazardous as

its impact on the surrounding environment is detrimental. There are

studies that suggest when cargo ships use the bunker fuel – a residue of the

crude oil left unburnt after all other by-products of the crude oil including

jet fuel, gasoline oil, diesel, etc. are fully combusted – its emissions

contain more Sulphur content, as high as 4%, and can be tantamount to

Sulphur emissions from 50 million diesel-burning cars.7 Due to this

reason, the world at large is conscious about limiting these toxic emissions

which are the eventual ramifications of the industrial growth the world is

going through.

Options for Stakeholders

The shipping industry, oil refineries and the IMO are the main

stakeholders as they are directly related to or involved in maintaining

maritime trade. Apart from them, people inhabiting coastal areas or living

in towns and cities are also the stakeholders as they are the ones who are

6 Alan Neuhauser, "100,000 Americans Die from Air Pollution, Study Finds," US News

& World Report, last modified April 8, 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/national-

news/articles/2019-04-08/100-000-americans-die-from-air-pollution-study-finds.

7 Pearl Liu and Bonnie Wang, "Ship Emissions Choking the Region: Asia Weekly -

China Daily Asia," China Daily Asia, accessed December 24, 2019,

https://www.chinadailyasia.com/asiaweekly/2016-05/20/content_15436449.html.

120

actually facing the brunt of an alarming rise in air pollution.8 Hence, the

shipping industry is left with no option but to use compliant fuel carrying

lesser amount of Sulphur content whereas refineries have to respond to the

shipping industry’s need by supplying them the desired quality fuel. Need

not to mention that the IMO and especially MARPOL 73/78 will keep a

close eye on the industry operators to make sure the new set of regulations

is being followed in letter and spirit.

Listed below are the ways in which ships can comply to these new rules:

1. Ships need to use compliant fuel having Sulphur content not

exceeding 0.5% m/m which is the MGO or the ULSFO.

2. Other option can include installing the Exhaust Gas Cleaning

Systems commonly known as scrubbers which clean emissions

from ships and if a ship has installed scrubbers on it then it can use

the bunker fuel as well.

3. Ships can also use alternative fuels such as LNG or methanol.

4. The fourth option for ships is to use onshore power while staying

in port instead of using engine power as the ship turn-around time

(duration between a vessel’s arrival at and departure from a port)

entails several days for loading and unloading.

8 "Sulphur 2020 – Cutting Sulphur Oxide Emissions," IMO, accessed

December 25, 2019, http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-

2020.aspx.

121

Enforcement and Legal Challenges

It is true that the IMO has further capped the amount of Sulphur content in

fuel oil with the consent of member countries. Nevertheless, it is only a

regulatory authority and cannot enforce the rules and take legal actions in

case of breach of rules. The responsibility of enforcing such environment

friendly laws lies with coastal states and the governments operating along

seaborne trade routes to take legal actions and prevent its violation in their

jurisdiction.

Each member country is bound to comply with the IMO 2020

Rules and enforce it completely. It is expected that in the beginning these

new limits would be compromised as there is a lack of supply of

compliant fuel and installation of scrubbers is also time-taking. Only a

paltry number of 4% of total ships have installed scrubbers so far.9 At the

74th session of the MEPC, concern was shown by ship-owners and other

stakeholders who believed compliance with the IMO 2020 would not be

possible in a short span of time. At their insistence, it was decided that a

ship has to make a report called FONAR or Fuel Oil Non-Availability

Report in case it does not get compliant fuel from any source. Under the

IMO 2020, it is required from ships to maintain a complete record of

9 "ING: Up to 6% of the Global Fleet Will Use Scrubbers by End of 2020 to Comply with

IMO 2020 | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide," Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide,

Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping, last modified October 4,

2019, https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ing-up-to-6-of-the-global-fleet-will-use-

scrubbers-by-end-of-2020-to-comply-with-imo-2020/.

122

buying data and BDNs (Bunker Delivery Notes) so that a log of all their

activities is maintained.10

Impact of IMO 2020

Curbing the limit of Sulphur content usage will have multiple effects on

many sectors. Apparently, the direct impact is on the shipping industry

and the fuel industry as these industries are responsible for generating

seaborne trade volume more than 10.7 billion tons. However, people

living in coastal areas and along major sea trade routes will be the real

beneficiary of the IMO 2020 if implemented fully.

It is beyond a doubt that the shipping industry is going to be

directly affected by these rules as the fuel cost will likely to rise by

approximately 20%, which is very high, and will resultantly surge the

overall shipping cost. Keeping in view the onslaught of climate change

and dearth of availability of compliant fuel, the concern being raised by

ship-owners holds water.

The second biggest stakeholder is the refinery industry which,

under the IMO 2020 regulations, is expected to make sure the supply of

compliant fuel remains seamless so that the huge rise in the demand of

compliant fuel can be met. From January 1, 2020 the bunker fuel

10 Lars Lange and Handrike Kuhl, "Report of the 74th Meeting of IMO's Marine

Environment Protection Committee," International Union of Marine Insurance, accessed

December 25, 2019, https://iumi.com/news/iumi-eye-newsletter-june-2019/report-of-the-

74th-meeting-of-imos-marine-environment-protection-committee.

123

responsible for high concentration of Sulphur content in the atmosphere is

now going to be replaced with distillate fuels which are low in Sulphur

content. The Marine Gas Oil or ultra-low Sulphur fuel would be high in

demand in coming years. The oil industry will be at loss if it does not

respond to this challenge proactively by adapting to the new situation and

making sure the desired fuel supply remains coherent. The vulnerability of

refineries in this regard is more conspicuous in developing countries, say

South Asian countries, where many of oil refineries are not fully equipped

with latest technologies and rely on old technologies whereas need of the

hour suggests otherwise.

As far as human health is concerned, people living in coastal areas

are always exposed to the dangers of emissions. Rise in cases of

pulmonary infections, asthma and cardiac malfunctioning in coastal areas

is a direct result of air pollution caused by unburnt Sulphur content present

in ship emissions. Thus, improving air quality will positively affect

humans populating coastal belts across the globe. Acid rain which is also

caused by Sulphur and Nitro oxides can be avoided or reduced provided

these new rules are followed strictly.

A hike in fuel prices will eventually increase the shipping cost for

customers who will bear this burden. The surge is a logical trickledown

effect and cannot be evaded. However, the situation will improve when

the demand-supply equilibrium would be achieved in the long run.

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Where Does Pakistan Stand?

Pakistan has been a member of MARPOL since 1994 but Pakistan has not

yet ratified Annex VI of MARPOL. Although Pakistan is not bound

legally to implement the IMO 2020 standards, it would not be possible for

Pakistan to avoid compliance to these new rules owing to the universal

nature of the shipping industry. As ships coming from other countries

would be complying with the IMO 2020, ships going from Pakistan will

also be expected to be using compliant fuel for having an access to many

regions and ports of different countries which are signatory to the

Convention. As international seaborne trade involves many countries at a

time, Pakistan cannot remain unaffected by the new rules being

implemented worldwide. Hence, what is required needs to be done as the

deadline is just around the corner.

Refineries in Pakistan use old technology to refine the crude oil

and are not equipped with new technology to cope with the challenge of

the new era entailing environmental protection awareness. Nonetheless,

refineries in Pakistan will definitely feel the pinch of new strict rules

regarding ship emissions. Pakistan can work on improving the demand

and supply of new compliant fuel by introducing new regulations in

refineries to encourage them to adjust with the changing rules of doing

business.

Legal reforms about emission control is need of the hour as the

whole world is showing its commitment to the cause of environment

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protection by improving emission standards. Pakistan still lags behind in

this matter and even more importantly in making new laws related to

emission control. Being a coastal state, Pakistan has to design a two-

pronged strategy that can satiate international laws on one hand, and on

the other, can save its population from the adverse effects of pollutants

rampant in the atmosphere due to the use of the low quality bunker fuel

especially in coastal areas, maritime zones which are internal waters,

territorial sea, contagious zone, exclusive economic zone, and the

continental shelf. Time has come for Pakistan to ratify MARPOL ANNEX

VI and jump on the bandwagon so that it can play its role in creating a

cleaner environment for its coastal belt and for the whole world.

Conclusion

The implementation of the IMO 2020 is in the offing. Sulphur emissions

from ships due to the use of low quality bunker fuel in ships are going to

be curtailed as the low quality fuel will be replaced with fuel containing

low Sulphur content, as much low as 0.5% m/m, in all maritime zones of

the seas globally in a bid to thwart hazards of Sulphur emissions.

These new emission rules by MARPOL 73/78 are strict in nature

and will have far-reaching impact on seaborne trade. The responsibility of

implementing these rules lies with the signatory states and coastal states

which have to make sure that the fuel being used in ships sailing through

their waters is in compliance with these new rules so that hazards of air

pollution can be avoided. This new set of rules is quite revolutionary in its

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nature and will definitely bring down Sulphur emissions worldwide if

implemented thoroughly.

127

Case Review

Greater Bengal in the Making in the Bay of

Bengal

Dr Syed Mohammed Anwer

History holds verdict to the fact that the Bengalis are one of the most

politically aware people in the Indian sub-continent. Their zeal and zest

for nationalism is deep rooted and overshadows even their religious

identities. Perhaps, they are the only nation in the Indian sub-continent in

which the nationalist sentiments outstrip religious affiliation. This had

been proven many times in the past. First, this ultra-nationalism was

exhibited in 1905 when the united Bengal territory was divided by the

British Government of India on religious lines. On July 19, 1905 Lord

Curzon, the Viceroy of India, on the pretext of improving administrative

efficiency sanctioned the partition of united Bengal. The partition plan that

separated the largely Muslim eastern areas from the largely Hindu western

areas came into effect on October 16, 1905. The move was welcomed by

the Muslims of Bengal who were subject to ill treatment at the hands of

the wealthy Hindus of West Bengal. These Hindus were apprehended by

the move and considered it a part of ‘divide and rule’ policy of the British

128

colonial power.1 This eventually led to an outpouring of resentment that

flooded the streets. After facing widespread agitation and riots, the British

Government acquiesced to the Bengali nationalism and reversed the

division of Bengal in 1911. Even the British raj at the epitome of its

administrative power could not resist the brunt of the united Bengali

nationalist sprit.2

What Goes Around Comes Around!

The creation of Bangladesh in 1971 from the debris of East

Pakistan, which was carved out of British India on religious lines in 1947,

was another manifestation of Bengali nationalist sentiments. Not

surprisingly, it all happened with the connivance and complicity of India

which actively took part in the division of Pakistan through political and

military intervention. In 1971, after the fall of Dhaka, Indian Prime

Minister Indira Gandhi swaggered: “today we have sunk Jinnah’s Two

Nation Theory in the Bay of Bengal.” But she could not foresee that the

foundation for Greater Bengal – an idea strongly advocated by Bengali

kingpins like Sarat Chandra Bose, Abul Hashem and Huseyn Shaheed

Suhrwardi – was being laid down concurrently in the same Bay of Bengal.

The Indian leadership is reaping what its predecessors had sown in

1971 when they fomented ethnic fault lines in a bid to dismantle the

eastern wing of Pakistan. The Bengali nationalist sentiments which were

1AbulHashim, In Retrospect (Bangladesh Cooperative Book Society Ltd., 1988), 186. 2ZakiaSoman and Jimmy Dabhi, Peace and Justice (Pearson Education India, 2010), 138-

39.

129

invoked by the Indians in East Bengal, then East Pakistan, will ultimately

culminate in the establishment of United Bengal – repeating what had

happened in 1911 despite the opposition of the mighty British Empire. But

this time, the spurt of Bengali nationalism will take a new shape which can

be predicted by looking at the recent happenings in the region that the

creation of Greater Bengal – an irredentist belief of all the Bengalis – is in

the offing.

Uproar over Citizenship Amendment Act

The latest development in this regard is the promulgation of

Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 commonly known as the CAA by the

Indian parliament. According to the CAA, Hindu, Christian, Buddhist,

Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants who have entered India illegally i.e. without

a visa on or before December 31, 2014 from the Muslim-majority

countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and have stayed in the

country for five years, are eligible to apply for Indian citizenship.

Ironically, the Citizenship Act of India extends Indian citizenship only to

the people of six religions but conspicuously excludes Muslims.

Moreover, it applies only to people coming from three Muslim majority

countries, but snubs the non-Muslims coming from other adjoining

countries. As per the claim made by the Indian government, people of

these six faiths have faced persecution in these three Islamic countries. It

is, therefore, India's moral obligation to provide them shelter.

Unfortunately, this so called ‘moral’ reason given by the Indian

Government does not hold water. Had this been the case, several Non-

130

Muslim countries bordering India, such as Sri Lanka, would have been

included in the Citizenship Bill.3 This is evident from the fact that the

citizenship status of the Tamil-speaking Hindus who were allowed earlier

to “legally” settle in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, to evade

discrimination they faced in Sri Lanka, is thus uncertain and these Tamil-

speaking Hindus are under peril of persecution in India.4 More than

100,000 Sri Lankan Tamils live in India; most of them settled in the

southern states of Tamil Nadu (in the cities of Chennai, Madurai,

Tiruchirappalli, and Coimbatore), Karnataka (in Bangalore), and Kerala

where the BJP has marginal support. Similarly, Nepal and Bhutan are also

excluded from the CAA despite Bhutan being accused of discriminating

against the Hindus through its promotion of Buddhist-centric society.5

Apprehensions vis-à-vis the Citizenship Bill are not limited to the

Muslims only. The Dalits are also wary of the Bill as they fear the wave of

the Hindutva might engulf them as well. Sushil Gautam, a Dalit rights

activist based in Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, alleged that they were being

persecuted for raising their voice. Gautam was arrested for taking out a

march against the imposition of the CAA on December 15, 2019 by the

3 "Rajya Sabha Passes Citizenship Amendment Bill: What is a Hindu and Why Are

Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka Left out of CAB?," MSN, accessed January 8, 2020,

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/rajya-sabha-passes-citizenship-amendment-

bill-what-is-a-hindu-and-why-are-myanmar-nepal-bhutan-sri-lanka-left-out-of-cab/ar-

AAK0NL1. 4 Abhishek Madhukar and Rina Chandran, "Tibetan Refugees in India Get Passports, Not Property," The Quint, last modified June 23, 2017,

https://www.thequint.com/news/india/tibetan-refugees-india-passports-not-property. 5 "Rediff on the NeT: Kerala is New Sanctuary for Fleeing Lankan Tamils," Rediff.com:

News | Rediffmail | Stock Quotes | Shopping, accessed January 8, 2020,

http://www.rediff.com/news/apr/14lanka.htm.

131

Uttar Pradesh Police. He said, “The proposed CAA clubbed with the NRC

is a step towards making India a Hindu Rashtra (Nation). First of all, it

alters the basic structure of the constitution by granting citizenship on the

basis of religion. Second, we understand very well what will be the status

of the Dalits in a Hindu nation. Obviously, it will be governed by the rules

of the caste system."6

CAA Targeting the Bengalis

This black law has been condemned and rejected nationwide.

International media has also taken a jibe at the promulgation of the CAA.

Although in media it is generally perceived that the Bill is a discriminating

law against the Muslims of India, in reality it is precisely against the

Bengalis specially who hail from the north east of India. This is the reason

why Mamata Banerjee – the Chief Minister of the West Bengal state and

popularly known as Didi (elder sister) – is vehemently opposing and

rejecting this black and discriminating law. She has a charisma of a

nationalist leader who, in a short span of time, has become a towering

personality revered by all the Bengalis in India. To her, this has become a

matter of life and death. Ms Banerjee has even demanded that an

"impartial organisation" such as the United Nations should form a

committee to see how many people are in favour of the Citizenship

(Amendment) Act. "Let there be an impartial organisation like the United

6 "Everything You Wanted to Know about the CAA and NRC," India Today, last

modified December 23, 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-

insight/story/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-the-caa-and-nrc-1630771-2019-12-

23.

132

Nations or the Human Rights Commission to form a committee to see how

many people are in favour or against the Citizenship Amendment Act,"

she said while addressing a gathering in Kolkata on December 19, 2019.

Ms. Banerjee’s harsh criticism on the CAA is validated keeping in

view the fact that the Bill actually targets “the Bengalis” as a community

rather than the Muslims of India. After the CAA has been sanctioned, the

acceptance of the Muslims coming from Afghanistan, Pakistan and

Bangladesh seeking Indian nationality is out of question.7 This has irked

Ms Banerjee who believes one of the primary aims of the Bill is to target

the Bengali migrants in the north eastern region of India. Here comes a

pertinent question in mind: Is the official stance taken by the Modi regime

regarding the NRC and the CAA a smoke screen to hide its intention of

persecuting the Muslims of India or, for that matter, any minority of India,

and in fact an attempt to Brahminize some territories of India? To get the

right answer, one has to analyze the statistics.

Empirical Data of Indian Refugees Debunks Modi’s Claims

The Indian government has reluctantly allowed the United Nations High

Commissioner for Refugees (UHNCR) in India to run a program for it. In

2015, the Indian government granted citizenship to 4,300 Hindu and Sikh

7 "What is the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016?," India Today, last modified October

22, 2018, https://www.indiatoday.in/education-today/gk-current-affairs/story/what-is-

citizenship-amendment-bill-2016-1372701-2018-10-22.

133

refugees who left Afghanistan for India.8 Similarly, some western media

outlets claim that 400 Pakistani Hindu refugees are settled in India. This

number looks meagre in comparison with the number of Bangladeshis

who have moved to India during the past decades. Census carried out in

2001 by the Indian government estimated that there were 3.1 million

Bangladeshis residing in India.9 A different estimate of 2009 claimed that

there were 15 million Bangladeshis residing in India.10 In 2012,

Mullappally Ramachandran, the minister of state for home, claimed that

nearly 1.4 million Bangladeshi migrants entered India in the last decade

alone.11

Hindu and Sikh Refugees in India

from Afghanistan

4,300/

Hindu Refugees in India from

Pakistan

400/

Bengali Refugees in India from

Bangladesh

More than 15,000,000/

8 Jayant Sriram, "4,300 Hindu, Sikh Refugees from Pakistan, Afghanistan Get

Citizenship," The Hindu, last modified June 15, 2015,

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/4300-hindu-and-sikh-refugees-from-pakistan-

and-afghanistan-get-citizenship-in-india/article7316028.ece. 9 Daphne Halkias et al., Female Immigrant Entrepreneurs: The Economic and Social

Impact of a Global Phenomenon (Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2016), 25. 10 Anja Rudnick, Working Gendered Boundaries: Temporary Migration Experiences of Bangladeshi Women in the Malaysian Export Industry from a Multi-sited

Perspective (Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2009), 49-51. 11 "India's 'Mexican' Problem: Illegal Immigration from Bangladesh," International

Business Times, accessed January 8, 2020, https://www.ibtimes.com/indias-mexican-

problem-illegal-immigration-bangladesh-213993.

134

This empirical data about the refugees in India makes the picture pretty

much clear. In the light of given data, the non-inclusion of the Hindus and

other immigrants from Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan further elucidates the

objectives of the CAA introduced by the Modi government. This proves

that the Modi government wants to impose the supremacy of the Brahmins

in India, on one hand, for its own political gain and, on the other hand, it

aims to contain the Trinamool Congress (TMC) of Mamata Banerjee in

West Bengal. This was the reason why on the day Home Minister Amit

Shah tabled the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB) in the Lok Sabha,

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee gave a call to oppose the

"divisive" bill "at any cost", and said not a single citizen of the country

will be allowed to turn into a refugee.12 She made a commitment that the

National Register of Citizens (NRC) and CAB will never be allowed in

Bengal as long as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is in power. She was of

the opinion that the register of citizens and the new legislation are two

sides of a coin. She also said: "we will not allow anyone to deport any

person from the country. There will be no NRC and no division. There

can't be a divide and rule policy; nothing is bigger than the country.

People can have big political slogans but the country should not suffer due

to it. It's a divisive bill and shall be opposed at any cost."13

12 "TMC Will Never Ever Allow NRC, CAB in West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee," India Today, last modified December 10, 2019, https://wwwnever-ever-allow-nrc-cab-west-

bengal-mamata-banerjee-1626857-2019-12-09.indiatoday.in/india/story/tmc-will-. 13 "Will Not Allow Anyone to Lose Citizenship Due to NRC, CAB: Mamata Banerjee,"

The Wire, accessed January 8, 2020, https://thewire.in/law/will-not-allow-anyone-to-lose-

citizenship-due-to-nrc-cab-mamata-banerjee.

135

The TMC has 22 members in the Lok Sabha and 13 in the Rajya

Sabha. Wondering why the Centre was seeking so many documents as

proof of citizenship, Mamata Banerjee said, ‘the BJP government is only

interested in harassing the masses’. Reacting to Mamata Banerjee's

allegation, BJP state general secretary Sayantan Basu said that she was

worried as her minority vote bank might get affected if the NRC is

implemented.14

Rise of Nationalist Mamata Banerjee

In fact, Mamata Banerjee has emerged as a unanimous leader of

the Hindus as well as the Bengali Muslims. Ms Banerjee in West Bengal

and Hasina Wajid in erstwhile East Bengal i.e. Bangladesh have become

beacons of hope who lead their people under the all-inclusive banner of

Bengali nationalism. These are the ground realities that cannot be denied.

Historically, this has remained the long suppressed desire of the

Bengalis. Sarat Chandra Bose from the Indian National Congress, Hussain

Shaheed Suhrwardi and Abul Hashim from the Bengal chapter of the

Indian Muslim League had advocated the cause even before the partition

of India in 1947. Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah was also in

support of the move. Nehru and Vallabhai Patel vehemently rejected the

proposition. But it appears as if the Bengali nationalism has awoken from

slumber after 1971 in the wake of the unjust CAA and the NRC. Huseyn

14 "TMC Will Never Ever Allow NRC, CAB in West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee," India

Today, last modified December 10, 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/tmc-will-

never-ever-allow-nrc-cab-west-bengal-mamata-banerjee-1626857-2019-12-09.

136

Shaheed Suhrawardy on April 27, 1947 stated: “Let us pause for a

moment to consider what Bengal can be if it remains united. It will be a

great country, indeed the richest and the most prosperous in India capable

of giving to its people a high standard of living, where a great people will

be able to rise to the fullest height of their stature, a land that will truly be

plentiful. It will be rich in agriculture, rich in industry and commerce and

in course of time it will be one of the powerful and progressive states of

the world. If Bengal remains united this will be no dream, no fantasy.”15

This is what the Bengalis demand today; nothing less nothing more.

15 Christophe Jaffrelot, "A Country in Search of Identity," in A History of Pakistan and

Its Origins (Anthem Press, 2004)

137

Report Review

Review of “Revitalizing Pakistan’s Fisheries;

Options for Sustainable Development”, The

World Bank Report 2018

Hafiz Inam

The World Bank, with other international donor

agencies,L’AgenceFrançaise De Développement (AFD) and the United

Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), is providing both

technical and financial support to Pakistan’s aspirations to achieve blue

growth. For this, a comprehensive study was carried out jointly by WB

consultants and other Implementing Partners (IPs) to assess the potential

of Pakistan fisheries. This report underpins this support. While further

unfolding the report, it provides an overview of the current context and

opportunities with technical analysis of impediments and

recommendations for ways forward. The report covers the entire fisheries

sector in Pakistan including marine and inland capture fisheries,

aquaculture, and the post-harvest value chain. The focus of the report is

primarily technical, yet it also identifies the intended and unintended

political implications of the issue. Some of these arise from the structural

138

reforms and devolution of power undertaken as part of the 2010

Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan.

As stated in the report, the consultants believed that Fisheries have

an opportunity to become a much stronger engine of economic growth and

social development, though the underlying potential of Pakistan’s fisheries

and aquatic resources is not reflected in current production, growth, and

value. Yet the sector has much more to offer in terms of boosting export

revenues, creating decent jobs, supporting livelihoods in coastal

communities, improving domestic nutrition and food security, and closing

Pakistan’s significant economic gender inequality, referring to the

narrowing gender gap commitment of Pakistan. The report highlighted

that the government of Pakistan recognizes these opportunities and has

signaled its desire to increase the contribution of the fishery sector towards

these goals. Referring to the global demand, the consultants shared that

potential for protein-rich fisheries products is rising, providing

opportunities for ocean-facing countries such as Pakistan. Fish is the

world’s most traded food commodity. Global capture fisheries production

increased from about 70 million tons in 1970 to 93 million tons in 1990,

and has stayed roughly constant since.

The WB acknowledges the fact that improved management of

marine resources can help prevent large declines in production. Adding to

this, the trend analysis in report indicates that if current trends continue,

Pakistan’s major commercial species groups, including demersal and

pelagic fish, and shrimps, are projected to decline substantially in total

139

stock size, undermining the valuable harvests that they currently support.

An increasing proportion of these harvests will consist of smaller and

lower-value individuals. The report emphasized the need of a program to

reduce the current levels of overfishing that could help reverse these

trends, maintain current production quantities, and increase the value of

that production. Subsequently, increased inputs like too many boats

chasing too few fish also leads to high costs, and thus reducing overfishing

will also increase profits. Presenting the cost analysis, the consultants

shared that combined gains from increased marine fish production and

reduced costs are conservatively estimated to be worth between US$400

million and US$1,200 million over 30 years. Aquaculture presents

opportunities to diversify exports away from marine fisheries. Aquaculture

is one of the fastest-growing food sectors globally. The experience of

neighboring countries shows the potential for Pakistan to contribute to and

benefit from this growth. Putting aquaculture on a growth trajectory that

matches those of India and Bangladesh would expand the industry to

annual production of over 560,000 tons after 10 years, up from the current

151,000 tons. By comparison, current growth rates lead to an only slightly

enlarged sector with 183,000 tons of production annually in that time

frame. Improving value added in post-harvest value chains is one of the

most feasible ways to improve fisheries’ economic contribution. It was

mentioned that Pakistani fish exporters receive relatively low prices

because the majority of their product is unprocessed or targeted towards

low-value market segments. High-value markets such as the EU, Japan,

and the United States are the world’s biggest markets for seafood, yet at

present, they account for less than 3 percent of Pakistan’s export earnings

140

from fisheries. The report points out that with improvements in quality,

recognized through international certification, Pakistan’s fisheries could

capture a bigger percentage of these markets. In addition to economic

benefits, fisheries offer important benefits for food security and nutrition.

Some nutrition facts reflected in the report indicated that Pakistan urgently

needs improved sources of nutrition: currently 50 percent of women and

children (under five years old) are malnourished, and 44 percent of

children are stunted physically and cognitively. Greater fish consumption,

particularly among the poor, could help. Fish is a good source of proteins,

healthy fats, and essential nutrients, and is highly beneficial for child

development and cognition.

Based on the consultative research, the report highlights the way

forward that management of natural resources needs a more integrated

approach. Excessive exploitation, mismanagement, and pollution have

degraded ecosystems in Pakistan waters, reducing their productivity and

endangering resource-dependent livelihoods. One reason is that fisheries

management has developed in isolation from other activities: the value of

fisheries is recognized, but policy linkages with other sectors, including

water management and agriculture, are under-developed. Integration is

key to maximizing overall economic benefits while minimizing damage to

the environment. Pakistan can take advantage of earlier policy and

strategy development efforts. The 2007 National Policy and Strategy for

Fisheries and Aquaculture Development in Pakistan remains largely

relevant, though it was not adopted at the time due to political transition. If

updated and adopted, such a policy strategy could help ensure that

141

activities in different fisheries work in tandem. For example, aquaculture

has strong growth potential in the short to medium term, which could

provide income for rural households, as well as food security and nutrition

benefits. In the longer term, improved management of marine fisheries

could prevent diminishing harvests and ensure sustainable growth in value

and jobs. Impacts from one part of the sector – for instance, aquaculture’s

demand for fishmeal, and pressure on coastal habitats – must be managed

with the other parts of the sector in mind. A national policy framework is

needed to manage such tradeoffs and realize complementarities.

Overall, the report reflects that rigorous research and consultative

procedures with relevant stakeholders were carried out to develop this

study report. To sum up the recommendations, report represents a detailed

set of actions for addressing the identified challenges and charting a

sustainable course forward. These are arranged around six key themes: (1)

creating an enabling environment for growth, (2) managing marine capture

fisheries for long-term sustainability, (3) ensuring sustainable inland

capture fisheries, (4) supporting the development of an environmentally

sensitive aquaculture industry, (5) improving value chain performance,

and (6) optimizing the benefits of a productive fisheries sector for social

goals.

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