maria elena gutierrez research coordinator [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
CONTENT
1. Long term mitigation scenarios for peru2. NAMA initiatives in Peru3. INDC in Peru4. Private initiatives on mitigation
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
Fast Sc. ↓ 10%
Sustainable Sc. ↓ 41%
Savings Sc. ↓ 20%
BAU 9,932 MM
RBS Sc.
Sustainable Scenario was recommended
PLANCC: Long Term Mitigation Scenarios 2050
MtCO2eq
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC)
Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)BAU ProjectionsBAU Projections
GDP and Population Projection
Emission Inventory
Emission ProjectiosEmission Projectios
Matriz IO Matrix,
National Accounts
Emissions
SAMSAM CalibrationCalibration
General Equilibrium ModelGeneral Equilibrium Model Mitigation ScenariosMitigation Scenarios
Emission Reductions
Socio economic Impacts
ResultsResults
Model Structure
Mitigation Measures
CGECGE
BAU Scenario replica
SAM 2007 with emissions by sectorSAM 2007 with emissions by sector
Bottom-up and top-down methodologiesBottom-up and top-down methodologies
Quasi-dynamic CGE including LULUCF sectorQuasi-dynamic CGE including LULUCF sector ScenariosScenarios
GDP in the Long Term
In the Sustainable Scenario, the GDP would rise annually between 0.3% and 0.8% in addition to BAU projection from the year 2022 until 2050.
sustainable
Welfare improved of population in the long term
Decrease of travel time in urban transport in Lima
2050 Urban population will increase by 60% while their solid waste will increase in 180%
The appropriate disposal of solid waste will increase from 38.8% to 51% in the sustainable scenario
PlanCC: COBENEFITS
PlanCC and NAMAS: Comparability
PLANCCNAMAS and other
initiativesCOMPARABILITY
PlanCC comprise wide information about different sectors, with emissions and costs estimated annually until 2050 .
Reference for comparison/validation of similar initiatives, e.g. NAMAs.
• Construction Sector: Wastewater mitigation options (NAMA) vs PlanCC BAU• Waste Sector: Emission comparison for use of IPCC 2006 guidelines (NAMA) vs IPCC 1996
guidelines (PlanCC)• Forestry Sector: Deforestation – reference baseline
2. NAMAS INITIATIVES
Sector Initiative Executor Status Person responsible
formally defined
In accordance with sectoral
goals
Housing Sustainable Construction NAMA
Ministry of Housing and Construction Proposal Yes High
Housing Sustainable Buildings NAMA
Ministry of Housing and Construction Proposal Yes High
Industry Bricks Production NAMA Ministry of Production Design Yes High
Industry Cement NAMA Ministry of Production Concept Yes High
Industry Iron and Steel NAMA Ministry of Production Concept No High
Energy Bioenergy NAMA Ministry of Energy and Mines Proposal Yes High
Energy Energy Generation and End Use
Ministry of Energy and Mines Design Yes High
2. IDENTIFIED NAMAS (cont.)
Sector Initiative Executor Status Person responsible
formally defined
In accordance with sectoral
goals
Transport Transport NAMA - Transfer II Project
Ministry of Transport and Communications
Negotiation (Pre implementaction) Yes High
Agriculture Coffee NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept Yes High
Environment Waste NAMA Ministry of Environment Design Yes High
Agriculture Cacao NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept No High
Agriculture Palm NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept No High
Agriculture Livestock NAMA Ministry of Agriculture Concept No High
3. INDC IN PERU
Considering PlanCC outputs, a new process started in July 2014 in order to propose a national INDCs on mitigation. New data was considered, including NAMA initiatives
3. INDC IN PERU
BAU 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emis
ione
s (M
tCO
2)
E1 ↓4%
E2 ↓14%
E3 ↓31%
E4 ↓42%
Ministry of Environment released a INDC proposal for public consultation (July 2015)71 mitigation options were taken from PlanCC.11 additional mitigation options were included.
4. PRIVATE INITIATIVES ON MITIGATION
Climate Corporate Commitment is a private initiative that aims to build a community of enterprises with commitment on climate change action.
The initiative includes a platform based on a voluntary reporting system that allows to identify how many enterprises are performing actions toward a low-carbon development, who they are, and what they are doing.
www.7c.com.pe
http://www.planccperu.org/