Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 1

Thinking Societies’ Relation to Environment and Climate in

Africa Sustainability, Development, Migrations &

ConflictsMarco Zupi, CeSPI

RomeTuesday 21st April, 2009

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 2

• Need to shift from a merely environmental approach to an ecological ecological one: to talk in terms of human ecosystems and in the human fittedness for ecosystems. Need of a more integral relationship between socio-economic systems and nature (J. Kovel, 2007).

• The environmental problems of sustainability on one hand and the social, economic and political problems of increasing poverty and inequality on the other are not separate: when these factors collide we have a new scale of problems.

• Not only from climate change to migration to conflicts to migration, but also a combination of rapidly changing social and economic conditions (and correlated migrations and tensions/conflicts) and human driven climate change will set off a chain reaction of devastating crises.

The basic idea: towards a more integral thinking

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 3

• Society and nature are not independent bodies• In terms of refugees there are many drivers. Climate

change is one. • But it is not correct to think as the only driver in the

absence of the other drivers in the system: mode of production, export orientation, urban-biased policies, food production, population growth, instability of governances all affect local population stress and un-sustainability.

• Climate change will not necessarily be the dominant driver of mass migration, but an additional, important stressing factor.

• A estimate of the number of migrants induced by climate change is inevitably vague: all the stressing drivers and feedbacks should be balanced, not just climate change.

• Need of a comprehensive approach to the non-linear and complex interrelations between the various factors.

The basic idea: towards a more integral thinking

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 4

Economic Performance up to 2007: robust and strong

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

GDP

Gro

wth (%

)

World Africa0

5

10

15

20

25

Gro

ss D

omes

tic

Inve

stm

ent/G

DP (%

)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Rising Investment underpinning growth

World Africa

Since 2002 Africa growing in tandem with global economic growth

Export growth (high commodity prices) and rising investment main drivers

Exports the main driver of growth

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US$

mill

ion

-10-50510152025

% G

row

th

Export US$mill Export Growth %

Source: African Development Bank

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 5

Growing Integration of Africa into the global economy

Decoupling more limited than previously thought:

• private capital flows rising•the share of trade in GDP increasing•regional debt markets are expanding•more investors interested in African equities

Trade is a growing share of GDP

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% S

hare

of G

DP

Trade as % of GDP

Remittances a major source of external finance

-

10

20

30

40

50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e

US$

Bill

ion

Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa Total Africa

Source: African Development Bank

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 6

-5050

150250350450550650750850950

105011501250135014501550165017501850

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 -50

50150250350450550650750850950105011501250135014501550165017501850

External debt, net flowsExports of goods, services and incomeFDI, net inflowsImports of goods, services and incomeODA and official aidWorkers' remittancesGDP (PPP)GDP

Per capita net flows to Sub-Saharan Africa (current $)

Source: IFDA Report

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 7

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 -100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

External debt, net flowsExports of goods, services and incomeFDI, net inflowsImports of goods, services and incomeODA and official aidWorkers' remittancesGDP

Per capita net flows to Northern Africa (current $)

Source: IFDA Report

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 8

30,327,7

13,7

3,7

12,2

3,82,5

1,10,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

US EU Russia Japan South &East Asia

LatinAmerica

Africa Oceania

Nevertheless... Contribution to Global Warming (% of total)

Source: US Dept. Of Energy

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 9

Source: World Resource Institute

5,60

2,402,72

2,40

0,530,25 0,24

1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

US EU Russia Japan China India Africa Worldaverage

Carbon Emissions per person (tons)

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 10-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ZimbabweSomalia ??

Guinea- BissauEritrea

Cote d'IvoireGabon

TogoCongo, Dem. Rep.

Central African RepublicBurundiMalawi

SwazilandComoros

SeychellesNiger

MadagascarKenya

LesothoBenin

Gambia, TheGuinea

Congo, Rep.Cameroon

ZambiaMauritania

South AfricaSenegalLiberia

LibyaRwandaNamibiaNigeriaUgandaAlgeriaGhana

Burkina FasoEgypt, Arab Rep.

EthiopiaMali

TanzaniaMorocco

MauritiusCape Verde

TunisiaSierra Leone

SudanBotswana

ChadMozambique

AngolaSao Tome and Principe

Equatorial Guinea19%

Growth 4% or higher

Heterogeneity of GDP annual growth rate (percentage, geometric mean 1997-2006)

Source: IFDA Report

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 11

0 010 1020 20

50 50

80 80

30 30

60 60

40 40

70 70South Africa

South Africa

Nigeria

Nigeria

Angola

Angola

Sudan

Sudan

1994-1999 2000-2005

Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial GuineaChadTanzania

Tanzania Other AfricancountriesOther Africancountries

FDI to Africa by destination ($ billion)

Source: IFDA Report

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 12

• Polarization, concentration, unequal distribution of benefits and opportunities exacerbated traditional patterns of human mobility.

• From traditional to additional new paths of human mobility.

• 2.1% of African population have migrated out of the continent (almost 16 millions of people).

• Women are 47.9% of immigrants and refugees are 17.4% (just 7.1% at global level).

• Between 9 and 28% of doctors have emigrated• Persistent dichotomy of policies: from “urban bias” to

“back to land” policies.

The Consequences of Growing Integration of Africa

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 13

Within SSA(69%)

To theOECD Area

(27%)

To the non-OECDRich economies

(3%)

10millions

4millions

0,5 millions

Source: World Bank, UN

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest proportion of intra-regional migrations in the world

And 80% of intra-African migration is cross-border

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 14

Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Population of More and Less Developed Population of More and Less Developed

Regions, 1950-2030Regions, 1950-2030

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 15

Components of MigrationComponents of Migration

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 16

The contrast of Sending versus Receiving Countries (when most countries both send and receive migrants)

Permanent versus Temporary Migration (when most “permanent” migrants use to return to their countries or move on to other countries)

Brain Drain/Waste versus Brain Gain (when both are true, with net cost and benefit spread in unequal ways)

High Skilled versus Low Skilled workers (when labor demand/need is oriented to some specific segments of both of them) Also traditional distinction between who is rural and urban is increasingly difficult, especially with the expansion of semi-urban areas where large proportions of populations rely on agricultural activities to meet their livelihood needs

Some misleading dichotomous conceptsSome misleading dichotomous concepts

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 17

• In Africa, 200 million people are in at the ages of 15 to 24 years (i.e. youth), comprising more than 20% of the population (UN2007).

• In 2005, 62% of Africa’s overall population fell below the age of 25. The still very high fertility rate along with a demographic transition that is slowly taking place are likely to increase the pressure African countries face for job creation over the coming decades.

• Worldwide, and in Africa as well, the ratio of the youth-to-adult unemployment rate equals three (ILO 2006), which clearly points out the substantial difficulties of youth participation in the labor market.

• Yet, the youth employment elasticity to GDP growth is low and only a fifth of that observed for all workers (Kapsos 2005).

• And unemployment among youth is often higher than among adults, but those out of the labor force are 2, 3 times higher on average (56% vs 21%)

Youth and labor markets in AfricaYouth and labor markets in Africa

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 18

Marocco

Algeria

Tunisia

LibiaEgitto

SudanEritrea

Gibuti

Somalia

CiadNiger

Nigeria

Rep Cent AfrCamerun

GabonCongo

Rep Dem CongoGuineaEquatoriale

Liberia

Ghana

TogoBenin

BurkinaFaso

SierraLeone

Costad’AvorioGuinea-Bissau

GuineaGambia

Sao Tome ePrincipe

MaliMauritaniaCapo

Verde

Senegal

Saharaoccidentale

Etiopia

UgandaKenyaRwandaBurundi

Tanzania

AngolaZambia

ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana

SudafricaLesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambico

Comoros

Seychelles

Reunion

MauritiusMadagascar

• In Sub-Saharan Africa, 3 in 5 of the total unemployed are youth (ILO 2006).

World Bank Survey-Based Harmonized Indicators Program (SHIP): 13 cases

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 19

Marocco

Algeria

Tunisia

LibiaEgitto

SudanEritrea

Gibuti

Somalia

CiadNiger

Nigeria

Rep Cent AfrCamerun

GabonCongo

Rep Dem CongoGuineaEquatoriale

Liberia

Ghana

TogoBenin

BurkinaFaso

SierraLeone

Costad’AvorioGuinea-Bissau

GuineaGambia

Sao Tome ePrincipe

MaliMauritaniaCapo

Verde

Senegal

Saharaoccidentale

Etiopia

UgandaKenyaRwandaBurundi

Tanzania

AngolaZambia

ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana

SudafricaLesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambico

Comoros

Seychelles

Reunion

MauritiusMadagascar

85.7%

46.5%

49.1%

70.7%

66.5%54.4%

81.7%75.4%

66.3%

92.9%

68.0% 93.8%

86.3%• According to WB-SHIP, in Sub-Saharan Africa on average 72% of the youth population live with less than $2 a day

Incidence of poverty among young people (< US$ 2 per day, in %)

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 20

Marocco

Algeria

Tunisia

LibiaEgitto

SudanEritrea

Gibuti

Somalia

CiadNiger

Nigeria

Rep Cent AfrCamerun

GabonCongo

Rep Dem CongoGuineaEquatoriale

Liberia

Ghana

TogoBenin

BurkinaFaso

SierraLeone

Costad’AvorioGuinea-Bissau

GuineaGambia

Sao Tome ePrincipe

MaliMauritaniaCapo

Verde

Senegal

Saharaoccidentale

Etiopia

UgandaKenyaRwandaBurundi

Tanzania

AngolaZambia

ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana

SudafricaLesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambico

Comoros

Seychelles

Reunion

MauritiusMadagascar

29.3%

45.6%

50.1%

24.3%

51.0%75.5%

26.6%75.8%

78.4%

71.4%

7.1% 81.4%

54.6%

• According to WB-SHIP (but Ethiopia and Madagascar data based on LF Surveys): mean is 55.3 (for adults is 23.4)

Distribution of youth by job status (in %)Out of the labor force

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 21

Stylized facts of youth migration• As a way to escape poverty, many youth look for better

opportunities by migrating (WB, 2008).• Indeed, migration to urban areas is unavoidable and

even desirable as a way to improve allocation of human resources, especially in land-scarce countries.

• While youth are more likely than older people to move from rural to urban areas or to move across urban areas, this increased youth migration has a wide impact.

• It increases the tension for jobs without necessarily improving the job conditions of those left in rural areas.

• It impacts provision of public goods, education, utilities, housing, and infrastructure.

• It affects demographic and skills composition in both urban and rural areas.

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 22

Stylized facts of youth migration• Young male migrants are more likely to be unemployed

and out of the labor force than their non-migrant counterparts (Garcia and Fares 2008).

• Urban residents are less likely to be employed than recent rural-to-urban youth migrants (increased tension).

• However, recent migrants who are employed are more likely to work in insecure jobs. In Ethiopia they are three times more likely to be engaged in informal activities.

• In general: the youth at large comprise a vulnerable group facing challenges in labor markets, but youth attached to agriculture (non-migrants) and female youth face particularly stronger challenges.

• Given that about 70% of the African youth population is still in rural areas, and that urban areas have been very slow to create job opportunities for most new job seekers, there is a need for an integrated urb/rur approach.

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 23

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Libya Egypt

SudanEritrea

Djibouti

Somalia

ChadNiger

Nigeria

Cent Afr RepCameroon

GabonCongo

Congo Dem RepEquatorialGuinea

Liberia

Ghana

TogoBenin

BurkinaFaso

SierraLeone

Coted’IvoireGuinea-Bissau

GuineaThe Gambia

Sao Tome &Principe

MaliMauritaniaCape

Verde

Senegal

WesternSahara

Ethiopia

UgandaKenya

RwandaBurundi

Tanzania

AngolaZambia

ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana

South AfricaLesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambique

Comoros

Seychelles

ReunionMauritius

Madagascar

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )

C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )

C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )

C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )

C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,

b a n a n e )

agriculture and stockbreeder-led

Sahelian crops (Sorghum, Millet)

Western crops (Igname, Cola)

Asian crops (Igname, Asian rice,

Banana)

Middle Eastern crops (Corn, Barley, Green-pea,

Grapes)

Ethiopian crops (Coffee, Teff)

From traditional paths of human mobility

Source: J. Diamond

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 24

SudanEritreaMali

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Mozambique

I principali corridoiI principali paesi di origineI principali paesi di destinazione

Coted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

Nigeria

I principali paesi di destinazione

Coted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

Nigeria

I principali paesi di destinazione

Coted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaCoted’Ivoire

BurkinaFaso

Ghana Ethiopia

Uganda

TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep

South Africa

NigeriaNigeria

The main corridors

The main countries of originThe main countries of destination

To contemporary corridors of human mobility

urban enclaves, oil/diamonds and mines-led

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 25

Mortality Risks due to drought

Source: World Bank

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 26

• Most of the poor in the world are living in unplanned towns.• 40 of the 50 fastest growing cities are located in earthquake

zones. Another 10 m live under constant threat of floods (P. Brown).• Africa is less densely populated than Asia; nevertheless in some

polarized areas the high density in environmentally threatened territories make them extremely vulnerable.

• Urban growth rates in Africa remain high, at nearly 5% on aggregate, but cities simply cannot keep up with the demands placed upon them (Simone, Abouhani, 2007).

• Cities are the places where Africans have been intensely engaged in the conflicts. Many Africans are urban residents, but they are not truly urbanized.

Rethinking urban-rural dichotomy

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 27

• Across Africa, a new urban infrastructure is being built, but what kind of city and processes are being constructed is not clear:

• Roughly 75% of basic needs are provided informally in the majority of African cities, and the processes of informalization are expanding across sectors and domains.

• The prevailing common approach focused on transition from informality to formal economy: a provocative approach is to examine the ways in which such economies and activities themselves might act as a platform for the creation of a very different kind of sustainable urban configurations

• New agglomerations beyond rural-urban dichotomy

Rethinking urban-rural dichotomy

Marco Zupi (CeSPI)

Slide 28

Exploring the basis for a new approach

• Against risk of UNROOTED and lost of identity and source of tension and conflicts, migration should be an opportunity, degree of freedom

• Against dichotomy of urban vs rural development, need of territorial and social cohesionterritorial and social cohesion as the key approach

• Regional integration is a crucial institutional process to be supported: (1) to overcome the jurisdictional gap (global public goods such as environment and peace), (2) to facilitate human mobility within regions, and (3) integrate bioregions rather than dividing or polarizing them (4) to promote redistribution of benefits of globalization, (5) to promote peace.

• Promotion of sustainability and equity as leading drivers of policies: new frontier of green-technological change, more equal and sustainable distribution and location of factors of production (manpower, capital, land, cities…)