march 2014 transalta investor presentation
TRANSCRIPT
1
March 2014
TransAlta
Investor Presentation
2
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation may contain forward looking statements, including statements regarding the business and anticipated financial performance of
TransAlta Corporation in 2014, 2015 and subsequent years. All forward looking statements are based on our beliefs and assumptions based on
information available at the time the assumptions were made and on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current
conditions and expected future developments, and other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. These statements are not
guarantees of our future performance and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially
from those contemplated by the forward looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains forward looking statements pertaining to,
among other things: expectations relating to the timing of the completion and commissioning of projects under development and their attendant
costs; our estimated spend on growth and sustaining capital and productivity projects; expectations in terms of the cost of operations, capital
spend and maintenance; expectations in respect of future electricity prices and the impact of natural gas prices on electricity prices; the impact
of certain hedges on future reported earnings and cash flows; expectations related to future earnings, cash flow and funds from operations;
expectations for demand for electricity in both the short-term and the long-term and the resulting impact on electricity prices; expected impacts
of load growth on electricity supply and the development of additional generation; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity and
production; expected financing of our capital expenditures; expected governmental regulatory regimes and legislation and their anticipated
impact on us; our trading strategy and the expected results from our trading activities; and expectations in respect to the global economic
environment. Factors that may adversely impact our forward looking statements include risks relating to, among other things: fluctuations in
market prices and availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity and in the price of electricity; the regulatory and political
environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements;
changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such
facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind
required to operate our facilities; natural disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyber-attacks; equipment failure; energy trading risks;
industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing
counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; and risks associated with development projects
and acquisitions. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our 2013 annual
MD&A and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our 2014 Annual Information Form.
Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result
of new information, future events or otherwise. All forward looking statements in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by
these cautionary statements. For information on our risks please refer to our 2014 Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR
and can be accessed at www.sedar.com.
Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
This presentation may contain references to comparable earnings comparable earnings per share, comparable EBITDA, funds from operations,
and funds from operations per share which are not defined under IFRS. Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures section of TransAlta’s 2013
annual MD&A for an explanation and, where applicable, reconciliations to net earnings attributable to common shareholders and cash flow from
operating activities. The presentation may also contain references to gross margin and operating income, which are Additional IFRS measures.
Please refer to the Additional IFRS measures section of the MD&A.
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Strategic & Financial Objectives
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Leading Diversified Power
Generation Company
Proven Track Record
Sound Financial and
Business Profile
Disciplined Growth
• Over 9,000 MW spanning multiple fuels
and markets
• Over 65 facilities
• ~2,200 MW of renewable energy
• 100 years of operating history
• Disciplined approach to capital allocation
• Highly contracted asset base
• Investment grade credit ratings
• Robust access to capital
• Significant cash flow upside post-PPA
• ~1,800 MWs added over past 5 years
• Located in markets with strong
fundamentals
• TransAlta Renewables and strategic
partnerships to fund growth
TransAlta – Key Messages
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Our Business
Canada’s largest publicly traded wholesale power
generator & marketer with over 100 years of operating
experience
Diversified asset base with over 65 facilities
strategically positioned in Canada, Western U.S. and
Western Australia
Total fleet capacity of over 9,000 MWs
Our business lines:
• Coal
• Gas
• Renewable energy (Hydro and Wind)
• Energy trading, which optimizes our other
business lines
Sponsor and majority owner of TransAlta Renewables
Listed on Toronto and New York stock exchanges
Coal:
4,931 MW1
Gas:
1,916 MW1
Hydro:
914 MW1
Wind:
1,271MW1
1Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.
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Objectives for driving long-term value for shareholders
Deliver Sustainable Dividend and Maintain
Financial Strength
Attractive and sustainable dividend
Competitive payout ratio with excess cash flow for growth
Strong balance sheet and investment grade credit ratings
Access to multiple sources of capital
Optimize base business
Re-contract to stabilize cash
flows and extend asset life
Continuously manage operating
and fuel costs
Maintain strong availability across
the fleet
Prudently and rigorously manage
sustaining capital expenditures
Position the Canadian coal fleet
to capture significant upside post
PPA
Invest in profitable growth
Growth through acquisitions and
greenfield
Disciplined returns and leverage
Target markets with strong
fundamentals and growth
opportunities
Focus on gas and renewable
generation – targeting primarily
contracted opportunities
Positioned For Growth & Value Creation
Integrated
Approach
7
20001
20141
Strategic Evolution of TransAlta
Actively shifting our business mix by
growing renewables
1Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.
as
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2008 2009 2010
2011 2013 2012 2013
694 MW
Canadian Hydro
80 MW
Kent Hills 123 MW
Ardenville / Kent Hills 2 19 MW
Bone Creek
450 MW
Keephills 3
125 MW
Solomon
68 MW
New Richmond
2011
132 MW
Summerview 2 / Blue Trail
2010
144 MW
Wyoming Wind
Disciplined growth with a focus on contracted assets
TransAlta’s 5-Year Growth Track Record
~ 1,800 MW added in our core markets over 5 years1
¹Indicative illustration based on annualized EBITDA contributions. 2013 includes recent acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind assuming full year pro-forma. Does not include natural gas
pipeline in Western Australia which will contribute EBITDA beginning in 2015.
Western Australia
Natural Gas Pipeline
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Strategic Initiatives since 2012
– Realigned Centralia’s cost structure to lower market prices and entered into long-
term contract with Puget Energy
– Invested or announced ~$730 million in Long-term Contracted growth delivering
~$80 million per year in EBITDA
– Created TransAlta Renewables Inc. as a competitive growth vehicle
– Re-contracted ~835 MW of capacity under long-term agreements and expanded
C&I Energy Services business
– Reduced corporate costs by $25 - $30 million
– Announced sale of CEGen for US$193.5 million, enhancing the balance sheet for
growth
– Aligned dividend to the Company’s growth and financial objectives, increasing free
cash flow by ~$120 million/year
Executing the Strategy
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Positioned for Growth
TransAlta has flexibility to deliver growth using two strong companies
Lower payout ratio at TransAlta and significant post Alberta PPA cash flows supports
re-investment in growth and strong balance sheet
TransAlta Renewables Inc. well positioned to grow, creating value for both sets of
shareholders
• Moderate payout ratio
• Moderate – High Growth
• Higher payout ratio
• Low – Moderate Growth
• Risk Profile:
• Development risk
• Construction risk
• Operating and resource risks
• Mix of contracted & merchant
price risk
• Trading
• Risk Profile:
• No material development and
construction risks
• Operating and resource risks
• Predominately contracted
• Relatively stable and predictable
sustaining capital
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British Columbia 4 hydro
77 MW
Alberta 4 hydro
21 MW
10 wind
417 MW
Ontario 4 hydro
7 MW
3 wind
398 MW
Quebec 1 wind
68 MW
New Brunswick 2 wind
125 MW
Bone Creek 19MW
Upper Mamquam 25MW
Pingston 23MW
Akolkolex 10MW
Summerview One 70MW
Sinnott 7MW
Castle River 44MW
Belly River 3MW
Waterton 3MW
Cowley North 20MW
Summerview Two 66MW
Macleod Flats 3MW Blue Trail 66MW
Soderglen 35MW Taylor Hydro 13MW McBride Lake 38MW
Ardenville 69MW
St. Mary 2MW Misema 3MW
Moose Rapids 1MW
Appleton 1MW
Galetta 2MW
Wolfe Island 198MW
Melancthon One 68MW
Melancthon Two 132MW
New Richmond 68MW
Kent Hills One 80MW
Kent Hills Two 45MW
High Quality Diversified Portfolio 5 Operating Regions
Creation of TransAlta Renewables1
~80% owned by TransAlta Corporation
1Above figures do not include acquisition of 144 MW
Wyoming wind farm which closed December 20, 2013.
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Financial Review & Outlook
13
• 10-year power contract at Southern
Cross in Australia
• 20-year power contract at Ottawa
• 11-year power contract at Centralia
• 24-year power contracts at CE Gen
• 640 MW C&I Energy Services
contracts
• Created TA Renewables
• Full contribution of $318 mm
Solomon gas generation facility
• Commissioned $212 mm 66 MW
New Richmond wind farm
• Acquired $109 mm 144 MW
Wyoming wind
• Advanced Sundance 7
• Fleet Availability of 88% compared
with target of 89-90%
• Unplanned outages at Canadian
Coal did not meet expectations
• Safety IFR < 1.0
• Comparable EBITDA of $1,023 mm,
in line with 2012
• Free Cash Flow of $295 mm,
increase of $37 mm from 2012
• Sustaining Capital of $341 mm
• Trading margins returned to
historical levels
2013 Year in Review
Operational Financial
Growth Contracting
14
2013 Performance Highlights
2011 2012 2013
(in $ millions, except as otherwise
noted)
Comparable EBITDA $1,045 $1,015 $1,023
Funds from Operations $809 $788 $729
Free Cash Flow $417 $258 $295
Sustaining Capital $319 $439 $341
Adjusted Availability1 88.2% 90.0% 87.8%
1Adjusted for economic dispatching at Centralia.
2013 Comparable EBITDA in line with 2012
2013 Funds from Operations lower than 2013 due to higher interest costs, higher cash
taxes and timing differences associated with cash settlements of certain hedges
2013 Free Cash Flow higher than 2012 due to lower sustaining capital (fewer planned
outages)
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2013 Business Segment Performance
Business Unit 2012 2013 Primary Drivers
Generation Segment
U.S. Coal $148 $66 • Lower prices and expiring
contracts
Cdn Coal $373 $309 • Higher unplanned outages
Gas $312 $327 • Growth
Hydro $127 $147 • Higher volumes & prices
Wind $151 $180 • Growth
Sub-total Generation $1,111 $1,029
Energy Trading Segment ($13) $61 • Return to “back to basics”
Corporate Segment ($83) ($67) • Corporate realignment
Consolidated EBITDA $1,015 $1,023
Comparable EBITDA ($ millions)
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Operations
Restore performance of Canadian Coal
Commercial
Pursue long-term contracts for Centralia and growth in Alberta
Start processes to secure long-term contract extensions in Ontario and Australia
Protect TransAlta’s rights under Alberta legislated PPAs
Growth
Grow EBITDA by $40 - $60 mm per year
Invest in cogeneration to support oilsands and LNG development in Western Canada
Advance Sundance 7 and TAMA Transmission
Construct Western Australia pipeline with COD targeted for early 2015
Achieve goal of 600 MW in Western Australia through acquisition or greenfield
development
Pursue acquisition of wind projects in Canada, US and Australia
Key Priorities for 2014
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2014 Outlook
Financial Outlook
Comparable EBITDA 1,015$ 1,065$
Cash Interest (235)$ (235)$
Cash taxes (30)$ (30)$
Others (7)$ (7)$
Funds from Operations (FFO) 743$ 793$
Sustaining Capital (350)$ (350)$
Pfd Share/Other Distributions (100)$ (100)$
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 293$ 343$
FCF/Share 1.07$ 1.26$
Dividend 0.72$ 0.72$
Dividend Coverage 1.49x 1.75x
Dividend Payout 67% 57%
EBITDA in line with 2013
Significant dividend coverage
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Total Portfolio Contractedness1
Hedge targets increased to support near-term revenue certainty
CONTRACTED PRICES
2014
AB ~ $55/ MWh
Pac NW ~ $40/ MWh
2015
AB ~ $50 - $55/ MWh
Pac NW ~ $40 - $45/ MWh
MW
88% 78% 77% 76%
Highly Contracted with Upside Potential
¹Capacity adjusted volumes. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.
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Strong Near and Long-term Cash Flows
Dividend and payout
ratio aligned to
business objectives,
generating significant
excess cash flow
Significant increase in
cash flows once Alberta
legislated PPAs expire
¹Illustrative representation of estimated average EBITDA over period. Actual EBITDA could vary from those shown due to a
number of factors
$ millions
FFO Range 750$ 775$ 800$ 825$
Sustaining Capital¹ (350)$ (350)$ (350)$ (350)$ Pfd Share/Other Distributions (100)$ (100)$ (100)$ (100)$
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 300$ 325$ 350$ 375$
Common Share Dividends (194)$ (194)$ (194)$ (194)$
Excess Cash Flow 106$ 131$ 156$ 181$
Dividend/FCF Payout Ratio 65% 60% 56% 52%
¹ Average sustaining capital over a three year cycle
Range of Potential Cash Flows
20
Markets and Growth
21
Western U.S.
Markets where TransAlta is Positioned for Growth
Alberta
Western Australia Ontario / BC
Alberta expected to remain the strongest economy in
Canada
3.7% GDP growth rate over the last 20 years and similar growth expected through 2015
Strong load growth and coal generation retirements will drive demand for new generation
AESO estimates 6,000 MW of new generation will be required by 2022
Key opportunities include cogeneration and combined cycle natural gas plants
Load growth of ~1.4% / year over next ten years in both PacNW and California
State level RPS targets are a key driver
33% target in California will require in the range of 15,000 MW of renewables by 2020
Total renewables investment expected to be 25,000 to 30,000 MW in WECC by 2020
Need for dispatchable capacity will result in opportunities for natural gas generation as well
Real GDP growth in Western Australia is expected to be 3.3% for the 2013-14 fiscal year. The following 3 years are expected to average 3.4% annual growth. This exceeds growth in Australia as a whole
Mining, which made the largest industry contribution to GDP growth in 2012-2013, will continue to be the driver of new opportunities in Western Australia
No load growth expected in Ontario for the next few years with conservation measures expected to increase
In Ontario, nuclear retirements/refurbishments expected to drive need for new capacity longer term
Gross BC annual load growth is expected to be around 3% to the end of the decade. Load growth at 1.7% net of demand response and conservation
Opportunities in BC around generation for LNG
22
Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES)
Reserve Margin, 2000 - 20181
1AESO Long Term Adequacy Metrics August 2013
Alberta continues to
see considerable
demand growth due to
industrial and mining
activities, and their
indirect impacts
Also, significant
retirements in capacity
in next 10 years:
800 MW of coal
retiring in 2019
1,200 to 3,200 MW
of new capacity
(above that
currently being built)
required by 2020
Alberta – Strong Fundamentals
23
Since deregulation, AB Pool prices have averaged $65 / MWh
Source: AESO
Historical Power Prices in Alberta
24
Data: NGX, Alberta Electric System Operator
AB forward market is a poor predictor of future spot market settles
Forward prices tend to reflect spot fundamentals not future fundamentals
$/MWh
Average annual Alberta power prices compared to historical forward Alberta power prices
Alberta Forward Market
25
Secured in 2014
Full year of 68 MW New Richmond
wind farm
144 MW Wyoming Wind Farm
Escalation on Solomon contract
Secured 2015 +
Australian gas pipeline (COD 2015)
Escalation on Solomon contract
Full year of Puget contract, with
prices and volumes increasing
Post PPA value on Sundance 1&2
Potentially generating $100 mm
EBITDA more in 2018/2019
Post PPA value on other Alberta PPA
units
Potentially generating $300 -
$400 mm EBITDA more per
year post 2020
Actively Pursuing
Renewables
Acquisitions in Canada, U.S. and
Australia
Gas
Sundance 7 combined cylce in
Alberta
Cogeneration in Alberta and B.C.
Combined and simple cycle across
Canada, U.S. and Australia
Other
Transmission opportunities in
Alberta
Investments in solar technologies
Pipeline expansions in Australia
Future EBITDA Growth
26
Summary
27
Attractive Valuation
Metrics Relative to Comparable Companies
TEV/2014E EBITDA
¹ Debt does not include preferred shares
Debt¹/2014E EBITDA
Balance Sheet Strength
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0xTA Corp TA Renewables Other Companies
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0xTA Corp TA Renewables Other Companies
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Strategy Unchanged, Ability to Execute Enhanced
Integrated approach to driving long-term shareholder value
Diversified and highly contracted portfolio
Attractive and sustainable dividend
Strong balance sheet and free cash flow
Well positioned for growth in markets with strong fundamentals
Significant upside post-PPA