march 2012 business journal

contents March 2012

Editor:Linda Hutchinson-Jafar

Contributors:Ambassador P.I. Gomes Dr. Anthony T. BryanDr. Annita MontouteDr. Ronald RamkissoonSirius Mann

Design and layout:Karibgraphics Ltd.

Business Journal is published by:Caribbean PR Agency#268 Harold Fraser Circular, Valsayn, Trinidad and Tobago, W.I.T/F: (868) [email protected] www.bizjournalonline.com

© 2012. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the Publisher.

Belize accelerates progress towards the MDGs

Feeding the world - the 9 billion people question

Reinventing Petrotrin

Membership in cooperative businesses reaches 1 billion

The lighter side

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From the Editor

Gloomier global outlook on Latin America, Caribbean

No growth in the Caribbean without investment

Drugs, guns and cash

Study: Perception of insecurity erodes support for democracy

The excrement of the devil faces new challenges

Promoting Trinidad and Tobago

Caribbean Travel Marketplace sees 17% increase in buyer companies

Beyond aide - towards effective development cooperation

A more dynamic ECLAC

Caribbean China economic relations: what considerations for a sustainable relationship?

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Remarks made by Sean Smith, Statistical Specialist, Caribbean Tourism Organisation at the State of the Industry News Conference in February 2012

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Abbreviated version of a speech delivered by Mr. Norman Christie, President, BP Trinidad and Tobago to the Trinidad and Tobago Energy Conference 2012

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From the Editor’s Desk

The indicators of economic activities throughout the Caribbean and Latin America reveal continued contraction in

many of the countries and the prognosis for 2012 is for much of the same they experienced over the last three years.

The shrinking of the 17-nation eurozone economy in the last quarter of 2011 and the continuing debt crisis that is weighing down countries are worrying news for us in this part of the hemisphere.

There has also been news of some slowdown in major economies including China, Brazil and the USA.

The IMF, projecting a mild recession in the eurozone and a generally weaker world economy has reviewed its forecast for the Caribbean and Latin America with a “gloomier” outlook.

Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department has identified some precautions that our countries may adopt to buffer the effect of a weaker global environment and you can read more from Mr. Eyzaguirre’s in the page opposite.

Finance ministers, central bank governors and analysts are also pointing to a slower first quarter as their major sectors continue to face challenges.

In this issue of Business Journal, also read an interview with Diane Quarless, the newly appointed Director of the Port of Spain-based sub-regional headquarters of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

Ms. Quarless talks about her plans to transform the organisation into a more effective one, working alongside governments into finding solutions to their myriad of social and economic problems – a position no doubt which will be welcomed.

Our commentators have offered thought-provoking and analytical essays and we welcome your response to them.

This issue of Business Journal also provides wide-ranging coverage of issues from tourism, business, investment, information technology and much more.

And, finally, many thanks to the numerous readers who have been writing and supporting us and providing feedback on the Journal’s contents.

And if you are interested in providing guest commentaries for the Journal on an interesting topic, do contact me at [email protected]

Editor

BusinessJouRnAl|MARCH2012�

The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and now expects a mild recession in the euro

area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean, says Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department in a recent blog.

The Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than its September forecasts. In contrast, the forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.

“As for Latin America and the Caribbean, as I foreshadowed in my recent blog post, a weaker world economy and softer commodity prices translate into a gloomier outlook.

“We’ve marked down our growth forecasts for the region as a whole by about ½ percent for this year. The overall markdown for Latin America is a bit smaller than for the globe, because much of the region’s economies still enjoy good domestic momentum and stable financial systems.

“Moreover, commodity prices remain well above their long-term trend, despite the recent decline, and external financing remains relatively cheap and readily available (see chart). While global uncertainties have sparked volatility in capital inflows, we have yet to observe a reversal. But to be sure, there is a lot of variation in our forecast revisions within the region,” said the IMF Director.

Gloomier Global Outlook on Latin America, Caribbean

• In South America, which until recently was growing well above trend, less favorable external conditions are expected to crimp output growth, dampening brewing overheating pressures.

• The outlook for Mexico and Central America is broadly the same as in October, as we’ve left our U.S. outlook unchanged.

• Meanwhile, growth in the Caribbean will continue to lag, held back by weak tourism flows from advanced countries and high public debt.

Take precautions

Rebuild fiscal buffers, to maintain fiscal credibility—the euro crisis vividly illustrates the costs of losing it—and prepare for a further deterioration in global conditions.

Be ready to ease monetary policy, where strong institutions and low inflation would permit it. Watch financial systems closely for signs of stress.

Maintain flexible exchange rates—our research shows that these buffer shocks, particularly from commodity prices.

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Recent admonitions by leaders of two noted regional

institutions, Mr. Warren Smith, President, Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and Ms Alicia Barcena, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) took few keen observers by surprise.

Ms. Barcena is quoted as saying “in Latin America and the Caribbean, the investment ratio is not enough to maintain high growth rates,” while Mr Smith called for the creation of “an environment in which the private sector can emerge as the new engine of economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction…”

No Growth in the Caribbean without Investment

By Dr. Ronald Ramkissoon

The reality is that following the global financial crisis in 2008, most Caribbean territories -- with the exception of Suriname and Guyana, which are still riding the good fortunes of high commodity prices -- experienced negative or only marginal economic growth in the last four years.

This failure of most Caribbean economies to grow is partly responsible for rising debt, unemployment, fiscal deficits, and the resultant adverse social consequences such as rising criminal activity. I contend that the inability of most Caribbean countries to grow is due, in the main, to their failure to mobilize adequate investments from the foreign and domestic private sectors as well as from government accounts.

Why is investment important? How well do policy makers in the Caribbean understand the composition and drivers of investment and how well do they recognize the importance of investment for poverty alleviation? Indeed, how do Caribbean countries compare to other countries as far as the value of investment is concerned? What might be done to promote greater investment in the region? These are some of the questions which I attempt to answer in the next few paragraphs.

I believe that the connection between investment and growth and between growth and poverty alleviation is neither well understood nor appreciated by a wide cross section of Caribbean people.

Investment is important because it is the only sustainable way to promote growth. Growth is important if governments are to get the resources needed to address social issues, such as education, crime and poverty, in a sustainable fashion. While growth does not guarantee that social issues will be addressed, social issues cannot be sustainably addressed without growth.

Over the years, considerable expenditures have been incurred on some presumably investment-related activities derived from regional and extra-regional sources. These activities include numerous studies, the establishment of investment promotion agencies, investment trips, trade negotiations, seminars on competitiveness, innovation, capacity-building and more.

It is my view that policy makers and others have often not sought to measure the returns of these expenditures, as difficult as this might be, in terms of new investments generated or the contribution of these activities to growth.


Investment or gross capital formation can be disaggregated into three major components: foreign direct investment (FDI), government investment and domestic private investment. While the region attracts some amount of portfolio investment, this is traditionally minute and has its own drawbacks.

If the aim of policy makers is to attract investment, then each of these components must be understood and targeted, bearing in mind that each has its unique drivers. That these three components also share complementary synergies should not be overlooked.

Traditionally, the region’s mineral, tourism and financial sectors have attracted FDI. According to ECLAC, since a peak of US$9.7 billion in 2008, FDI in the Caribbean has fallen drastically to US$3.9 billion in 2010. The situation is not likely to have changed in 2011 and 2012 given the global economic climate.

Domestic private investment in the region is still relatively small and faces many risks inherent in a generally cold investment environment. If there is any doubt, witness the low ranking of Caribbean countries in the World Bank/IFC’s annual Doing Business Report.

The disincentives to doing business in the region may be part of the reason for the not insubstantial, outward-bound investments of the direct or portfolio type, not that some such investments are not desirable from a risk-management standpoint. Nonetheless, the argument for keeping some of that capital in the region is strong but requires fresh initiatives centering on improvements to the domestic investment climate.

Government investment, to varying degrees has played a useful role in the region to date. The present reality however, is that most regional governments are seriously constrained by large fiscal deficits and debt. Since government savings are weak, there is little or no room for capital funding.

So how much have Caribbean countries been investing compared to other countries? An examination of World Bank and IMF data indicates that Caribbean countries have lower investment-to-GDP ratios compared to several

so-called model countries (Table 1). Investments by Singapore and China for example, were clearly higher over the last few years, as reflected in the growth rates of those countries, especially China. Earlier years paint a similar picture.

Table 1Investment as a % of GDP

2008 2009 2010China 44 48 48Singapore 30 26 24Barbados 22 22 15Jamaica 24 20 21Trinidad & Tobago 14 16 16

Source: The World Bank except for T&T, the IMF

One may well ask, well where is the investment to come from? The standard response is from domestic or foreign savings. Since foreign savings are much scarcer now, let us look at domestic savings. The data show (Table 2) that savings in the region are lower than China or Singapore, except for Trinidad and Tobago, which can be considered a special case in the region.

Table 2Savings as a % of GDP

2008 2009 2010China 53 53 53Singapore 45 45 46Barbados 8 9 8Jamaica 4 6 6Trinidad & Tobago 46 25 34

Source: The World Bank except for Barbados, Jamaica and T&T, the IMF

The truth is that the Caribbean is in a most difficult place as it struggles to mobilize investments that are absolutely necessary to ignite growth. I presume that these considerations inform the Report which is said to be now before CARICOM Heads of Government.


I do hope that appropriate action will be taken to alleviate the situation. What do I recommend? In the short run, it is critical to maintain socio-economic stability through constructive dialogue on existing resources and among all stakeholders. In the medium term, the importance of investment to growth must find wider appreciation and acceptance.

The removal of the constraints to investment and growth must be a major point of focus. The ratio of investment to GDP must be targeted for improvement. In this context, the impact of expenditures on activities meant to promote

investment and growth must be measured and modified as necessary. Fixing the regional business environment must be a priority if domestic private investment and FDI are to rise appreciably.

Dr. Ronald Ramkissoon is a senior Economist with the Trinidad and

Tobago-based Republic Bank

EARTH CONSCIOUS magazinePresents

The 2nd Youth Forum on Climate Change, Trinidad and Tobago

‘The Future we want: Green Economy, Sustainable Society’.June 09, 2012, Hyatt Regency, Trinidad

The one-day forum will include discussions on:What future do we want; are we developing a green and sustainable future?Green careers– building sustainable careersGreen Economy: Sustainable Society: what is my responsibility?

Among the main goals of this year’s Forum are:To continue creating awareness among youth on issues of Climate ChangeTo encourage environmental activitiesTo build the next generation of leadership in sustainable development and climate change adaptation

For more information contact:Caribbean PR Agency

Tel: (868) 645-0368; Cell: (868) 686-9797; Email: [email protected]

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Following are remarks made by Mr. Heraldo Muñoz, ASG and Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, UNDP at the Launch of the Caribbean Human Development Report 2012: “Human Development and the Shift to Better Citizen Security” in Trinidad in February.

Latin America and the Caribbean countries are suffering a common and grave problem: citizen insecurity. The world homicide rate is 6.9 per 100,000 persons, but in Latin America and the Caribbean many countries show homicide rates of over 20 per 100,000 persons, with a couple of them even reaching rates of over 60 per 100,000 persons. Although Latin America and the Caribbean represent less than 9% of the world’s population, it concentrates 27% of the world homicides.

There is a large range of variation within the region, and also across the different Caribbean countries. Thus, in terms of homicides, the countries with the lowest rates are Peru (3), Chile (4.5), Cuba (4.6), Suriname (4.6) and Argentina (5.5). In the middle, are countries like Dominica (22.1), Dominican Republic (24.9), Saint Lucia (25.2), Bahamas (28) and Brazil (29.9). As the countries with the highest rates, we find El Salvador (66), Jamaica (52.1), Venezuela (49) and Belize (41.7). The country with the world highest rate of homicides per 100,000 in 2011 was Honduras (82.1).

In Trinidad and Tobago, the Report notes that murder rates increased five-fold over a decade peaking beyond 40 per 100,000 in 2008 and then declining to 36 in 2010.

Such situation has human, economic, social and political consequences. People’s lives and income have been lost. Productivity, investment and consumption have deteriorated. Social capital has diminished. And of course, in spite of the undeniable strengthening of democracy across the region, the trust of citizens in their national institutions has weakened.

UNDP has been working on citizen security issues in Latin America and the Caribbean for a few years now. We presented a Central American

report in 2009, and are currently preparing a major region-wide report for 2013. We have followed-up our reports with technical assistance and capacity-building on the ground.

The Report we are presenting today, we believe, is the beginning of an important and challenging agenda for the Caribbean region, in which we hope to be very much involved. Insecurity is a key obstacle to the advancement of human development in this region, because it has a direct negative impact on people’s freedom to live satisfying and productive lives.

This study highlights the need to beef up the public institutions’ capacity to tackle crime and violence – including the criminal justice system – while boosting preventive measures. The Report recommends: Youth crime prevention through education and employment opportunities especially to the marginalized urban poor; shifting from a state protection approach to one focusing on citizen’ security and participation,

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and promoting a law enforcement that is fair, accountable and more respectful of human rights.

The following are key recommendations from the Report, which result from extensive consultations with 450 experts, practitioners and leaders, and reflect a large-scale survey with 11,555 citizens in the seven assessed countries of the Caribbean.

High rates of violent crime can be turned around by seeking a better balance between legitimate law enforcement and preventive measures, with a stronger focus on prevention rather than repressive only measures; Governments should create or invest more in units to address gender-based violence, and adopt more preventive measures to ensure that violence against girls and women is no longer tolerated; Because crime is harmful to social cohesion, Caribbean nations must better address youth violence and street gangs (whose crimes still rarely lead to arrest or conviction);Public security requires community collaboration. Youth organizations and groups advocating for women’s rights, victim’s rights and human rights should become more active, and Governments should commit to more actively engaging citizens.

According to the Report, the population does not view “crime prevention” and “crime control” as an either-or-proposition: They want their governments to do both. Nearly 90 percent of the citizens surveyed support social measures to prevent crime, such as increased investment in job creation, poverty reduction, education and other initiatives to build youth’s skills and competencies. At the same time, some 80 percent of surveyed citizens said that “criminals should be punished more harshly”. The poll also showed that four out of ten citizens considered their countries capable to solve or better manage the insecurity problem.

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• The Report highlights Caribbean Community (CARICOM) estimates revealing that gang-related crime carries economic costs representing between 2.8 and four percent of a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in expenditures to fight crime and lost revenues (jailed youth and decline in tourism). According to the study, Jamaica alone had incurred US$529 million in annual economic costs. In Trinidad and Tobago, the Report argues that a one percent reduction of youth crimes would boost tourism revenues by US$35 million per year.

The challenges the report poses are by no means easy. Reducing victimization, making youth resilient to crime, fighting gender-based violence, acting on street gangs and organized crime, and strengthening state security institutions are all ambitious goals. However, past and present experiences show that progress can be achieved even in the worst conditions of insecurity. There is evidence that

Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Ms. Helen Clark, Under-Secretary General of the United Nations and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Administrator at the launch of the report.

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much can be done in order to improve citizen security, in innovative and not solely in punitive ways.

There is no single way out of insecurity, of course. But as the examples in the report show, Caribbean countries may benefit from focusing on a model of security based on the human development approach. In this model, citizen security is paramount, instead of the traditional state security model, whereby the protection of the state is, not the citizen, the chief aim.

Social inclusion to help prevent crime and violence and efficient and effective law enforcement are by no means incompatible or mutually exclusive. In a truly democratic society, broad based social inclusion and swift criminal justice serve to reinforce and complement each other. This is one of the most important lessons to be taken from this report – and not only for the Caribbean but for Latin America as well.

By keeping track of how citizen insecurity evolves over time, and by identifying valuable policy alternatives to be considered by different

stakeholders in every country, we have put this problem at the top of our regional agenda. That is why the report we are presenting today is part of a larger agenda.

UNDP is currently supporting citizen security programmes and providing high-level technical advice to at least 10 countries in the region. During the last few years, we have provided assistance to a variety of governments on local security management approaches, and supported reforms to justice and enforcement institutions. We intend to continue to provide such support.

Human development, supposes, effective security for every individual, with freedom, equity and respect to human rights. Within this framework, every country in the Caribbean can try new initiatives, according to each particular circumstance. This report is our contribution to the efforts Caribbean states display in the search for a more secure future for all their citizens.

Social inclusion to help prevent crime and violence and efficient and effective law enforcement are by no means incompatible or mutually exclusive. In a truly democratic society, broad based social inclusion and swift criminal justice serve to reinforce and complement each other.


Shifting socio-political dynamics in the Americas over the last decade have empowered and emboldened

Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) and Localized Criminal Organizations (LCOs), as their expanding drug transit routes to the U.S. and elsewhere are posing a serious and escalating threat to the sovereignty of many countries within Central America.

According to the Executive Summary of the recently published ‘Drugs, Guns and Cash Analysis and Proposals on How to Manage the Crisis in Central America’ the insatiable consumption of illicit drugs has created a very powerful enemy that thrives on violence, lust for money and power and which has set its sights on Central America - as one of its vital organs.

The Authors which include Business Journal Columnist Dr. Anthony Bryan conclude that the most important message extracted from this study is that without intergovernmental and international cooperation and support, primarily between the countries most involved, Guatemala and Central America will soon collapse into failed states dominated by shadow economies and run by Criminal Organizations that buy political power.

“Without decisive action, these countries will be ―handed to these criminal organizations and groups of people that wish to form their own type of government system and inadvertently create greater regional instability,” according to the report

These TCOs of which many are Mexican and Colombian drug cartels have the finances, organizational structures, geostrategic influence and illegally obtained firepower to destabilize many Central American countries.

As a result, they provide alternative governance to areas within countries that are not under the direct control of governments and these spaces have become logistics hubs for road, maritime, and aerial deposit and storage of large amounts of illicit cargo destined for the U.S. and other markets. They are also used primarily for TCOs active in Mexico that operate a complex variety of land crossings and tunnels into the lucrative U.S. market.

“Central American countries have been drawn into this narcotics and contraband quagmire largely due to greed, its geostrategic location with Mexico and the fact that it‘s a maneuverable land, sea and air bridge between North and South America,” according to the report which outlines many recommendation to tackle numerous issues.

The report said notwithstanding the difficulty associated with estimating drug trafficking, it is clear that Central America has evolved into the main trans-shipment route for drugs and contraband cargo, and that the logistic and transit changes have taken place rapidly and in response to active interdiction programs supported and funded by the U.S.

“These developments warrant a closer look at the mechanics of the drug trade in the region,


the actors involved, and the implications for Central American governments -for whom TCOs and LCOs represent a much more daunting threat than current national security resources can manage – and that of the Americas as a whole.”

In the 1980‘s and early 1990‘s Colombia‘s warfare with drug cartels saw unprecedented bombings, assassinations and kidnappings – directed at government and civilian targets in what was labeled the ―age of Narco-terrorism.

By the U.S. definition of terrorism, TCOs in Mexico and the Northern Triangle (Guatemala; El Salvador and Honduras) operate as terrorist groups as evidenced by their recent emboldened actions.

Despite the media spotlight on Mexico, Honduras has the highest per-capita murder rate in Central America of 77:100,000 inhabitants, followed by El Salvador with 66:100,000, Guatemala with 50:100,000 and Mexico with 18:100,000.

According to the report, these numbers tell a story of their own as corruption, collusion, greed and poverty create a formula that has facilitated cheap guns for hire, turf wars for control of lucrative drug transit routes and an opportunist mentality among many, based on desire to improve their economic circumstances.

One of the more important revelations in the report is the authors’ discussion of the link between organized crime and politics. In all Central American countries (with the exception of Costa Rica which has a long tradition of democracy), competitive elections are a victory for a sub-region that knew only decades of civil war. While competitive elections and viable opposition parties probably help to improve the levels of political transparency, they also tend to raise the cost of politics.

Competitive elections ironically offer terrific opportunities for crime syndicates hoping to make political investments. They accomplish this through campaign finance, exploiting the weakness of political parties and party systems, capturing parties and elected officials by moneyed interests. In the worst cases of

political penetration by organized crime, “the distinction between institutions and crime—between inside and outside the law—dissolves as the state and its authorities become effective abettors of criminal activities, and may even depend on such activities to function.”

The authors said the solutions presented in this report are built around the promotion of interdependent criminal justice programs that will primarily remain internal and situational to every country but at the same time support a collaborative set of goals that are regional.

They also said that the security and public safety concerns of the region should be unified into a collective effort that simultaneously addresses the holistic needs and desires of Central American countries to combat organized crime, regain control of their territories and strengthen their respective national security programs.

Looking at the way forward, the authors said the problem of violence and criminal activities in Central America has produced a plethora of detailed studies by academics, sociologists, criminologists, security firms and agencies. However, the situation – that affects the region – is so broad and dynamic that there is no holistic documented approach that addresses the situation and solutions as a collective.

While analyses from various forums are excellent and recommendations are many, actual solutions and plans of action remain scarce.

“A regional effort to tackle this problem in an organized fashion is mandatory, but the challenges include a lack of trust and understanding between countries, a lack of trust and understanding between countries, a

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lack of political will and resources and weak institutions.

“Noteworthy is the seeming inability or reluctance of the regions‘ leaders to address the systemic problems of a skewed distribution of wealth, insufficient fiscal income, corruption, and unrelenting violence,” according to the report.

Security, funding of political parties, justice, greater economic equality, regional cooperation, inclusive dialogue, citizen participation, and the preservation of democracy have all been identified as the leading challenges to the consolidation of democracy in the region and to the neutralizing of criminality.

The Organization of American States (OAS) recently presented a study prepared by Kevin Casas Zamora, of the Brookings Institution,

examining the relationship between citizen security and democracy, and showing with figures that the less secure citizens in Latin America and the Caribbean feel, the lower is their support for democracy.

The study, titled, in Spanish “La Polis Amenazada: (In)seguridad ciudadana y democracia en América Latina y el Caribe” (The Threatened Polis: Citizen (In)security and Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean), was presented at OAS headquarters by its Secretary General, José Miguel Insulza, and the Permanent Observer of Spain to the OAS, Javier Sancho, whose government helped finance the study, and was coordinated by the OAS Department of Public Security.

Secretary General Insulza said citizen security, which will be one of the central issues of the VI Summit of the Americas in April, is “the principal problem from the point of view of public opinion.” He recalled that the latest “Latinobarómetro”—a prestigious survey on the behavior of democracy in the continent—concludes that “the issue that is of greatest priority to a great number of countries is that of security. People’s fear has risen substantially, and this is an issue therefore that is of serious concern to the leaders of the region.”

The head of the OAS highlighted that the study presented connects insecurity to democracy, a central issue that is at the heart of the activities of the Organization, and he emphasized that assuming the existence of this connection is crucial to be able to continue making progress in the wellbeing of the region.

“There are issues or matters that are incompatible with democracy; one of them is the existence of castes or social groups that have different rights from the rest of society, and that in some

Study: Perception of Insecurity Erodes Support for Democracy

“One thing is clear: In no country in the region is it simply a domestic issue. At a minimum, effectively addressing the problem of transnational crime and its impact on the security of the region requires a multi-track, balanced and integrated strategy and one that is regional in scope but with strong bi-lateral components.

“Otherwise, success in one jurisdiction simply transfers the problem to neighbouring areas as the agents of cartels and organized crime move freely between countries by legal or illegal means. The level of the threat has to be raised to the level of a threat to national, regional and international security.”


way happens with the growing inequality that exists in our region,” he said. He added that, “another is precisely the fact that in a society there may be organized groups with their own norms, their own laws, that do not obey the laws of society, and that is what happens today with organized crime.”

Ambassador Sancho, for his part, said that “decided investment in public security, in the framework of the Rule of Law, is an indispensable condition to create quality democracy, that which furthers human development and supports itself upon solid institutions, generating citizenship.” “That is why we consider of the greatest interest to participate in this project,” he added.

Among the results of the study, Casas Zamora highlighted the direct relationship between the rise in the perception of insecurity and a reduction of trust in the democratic system: “For every changing step in the perception of insecurity by a someone—for example, if a person goes from feeling “more or less insecure” to feeling “very insecure”—it is more or less two percent more probable that such a person’s support for democracy is eroding,” he explained.

“That effect in the levels of support for democracy is more important than the effect of socioeconomic conditions, or the effect of years of schooling or the effect of religiosity,” said Casas Zamora. “What is remarkable to me, upon conducting this research, is the consistency of this finding, that the perception of insecurity in particular, much more than victimization, ends up eroding all the elements of support for democracy,” he concluded, among which he mentioned the erosion of the Rule of Law, the deterioration of “social ties,” the weakening of the State and its legality, and the reduced exercise of individual freedoms.

The study’s author explained that the influence of the perception of insecurity is such that it contributes more than other factors to a population’s expression of support, for example, for a coup d’état under conditions of “high criminal activity,” in the same way that to have been a victim of a crime contributes to the approval of authorities acting at the margins of the law to arrest criminals. In the same way, for every change on the scale of insecurity, a person is 2.6 percent more likely to support “the possibility of taking justice into your own hands.”

In conclusion, Casas Zamora prescribed among other things “to restart the discussion” on public security and in particular “the proliferation of the discussion of hard-line solutions, which are rarely successful in solving security problems but never fail to weaken the cardinal principles of the Rule of Law.” Furthermore, he emphasized the need to further invest in human development, in particular in opportunities for youth, since the high percentage (between a fifth and a fourth) of youth in Latin America who neither work nor study “is a time bomb from the point of view of security.”

“the issue that is of greatest priority to a great number of countries is that of security. People’s fear has risen substantially, and this is an issue therefore that is of serious concern to the leaders of the region.”


The Excrement of the Devil faces new challenges

Commentary

ByDr. Anthony T. Bryan

Juan Pablo Pérez, a Venezuelan founder of OPEC called oil “the excrement of the devil,” because for countries blessed with the resource, easy wealth appeared to be a definite path to state economic failure. But this “resource curse” has not affected all oil producing countries and some have managed their fossil fuel resources well and wisely. Today the “excrement of the devil” faces new challenges.

Frequent spikes in oil prices at the pump in many developed countries have prompted debates about peak oil, forecasts that uncertainty in the oil and energy industries will continue for the short term future because of a weak global economy, that the continued dependence by OECD economies on OPEC and states that are under political pressures in the Middle East do not augur well for global oil security, and that the rise of aggressive China and India competing in oil and gas markets is a driver of global price insecurity.

These ongoing issues are accompanied by demands for countries to cut back on petroleum consumption, new concerns about an apparent lack of direction on climate change policy at an international level (after the Durban conference of 2011), and the growing debate on the environmental sustainability of unconventional sources of oil and gas. The current scenario concerning oil speaks of the tenuous relationship between international security, politics and energy issues. Here is a snapshot!

Oil is no longer king?

In his new book, The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World, Daniel Yergin, perhaps the world’s most influential

energy pundit, looks at a future when oil is no longer king! In this 800 page tome he devotes numerous sections to renewable sources of energy: wind, hydropower, and solar energy. He is also interested in the possibility of “disruptive technologies” or unforeseen, game-changing sources of energy that venture capitalists are increasingly interested in financing. But there is an irony here. Yergin also dismisses the theory of “peak

oil”, (the idea that the world’s supply is rapidly running out), and points out that because of new technologies, estimates of the world’s total stock keep growing. It appears that oil will be with us for a long time to come. In addition, there are emerging trends that will influence global energy demand and supply.

The shale gas revolution and the golden age of gas

Shale gas is one of the most important revolutions in energy demand and supply. The “fracking” innovation (the technique used to extract natural gas from shale) is a game changer that has transformed the energy marketplace. The United States, for example, now appears to possess a 100-year supply of natural gas, which is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. Shale gas production in the United States has skyrocketed from virtually nothing to 15 to 25 percent of the U.S. natural gas supply in less than a decade. By 2040, it could account for more than half of it. This cleaner, cheaper energy source is already replacing dirtier coal-fired plants and could serve as a bridge until renewable sources become economically feasible. Technological innovation often breeds jobs and already shale gas has produced more


than half a million new jobs in the U.S. not only in traditional oil producing states like Texas but also in economically depressed places in the Eastern United States. If current trends continue, there are hundreds of thousands of new jobs yet to be created.

But nothing is that simple. The explosive growth in shale gas output in the US since 2006 challenges the coal industry, renders nuclear plants uneconomic and puts a spoke in the wheel of the economics for renewable energy companies which are still far away from viability. Given the environmental dangers in the “fracking” process (which also involves injecting large amounts of water and chemicals deep underground) the forces gathering against shale gas are gaining momentum. Nevertheless, because of the widespread availability world-wide of rock formations that contain shale gas, hope is rising among energy-consuming, resource-deficient countries that development of this resource is one of the ways to realize their energy security objectives.

Adios OPEC: the Americas are the World Capital of Energy

In a very provocative article, in Foreign Policy Magazine (September/October 2011), Amy Meyers Jaffe, Director of the Baker Institute Energy Forum at Rice University, predicts that by the 2020s, the world capital of energy will be the Americas -- where it was

prior to the ascendancy of Middle Eastern mega producers and suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the 1960s.

She sees the reasons for this shift as partly technological and partly political.

Geologists know that the countries of the Americas are home to plentiful hydrocarbons: land shale rock, oil sands, and heavy oil formations. The U.S. endowment of unconventional oil is more than 2 trillion barrels (and production of perhaps 3 million to 7 million barrels a day more is possible if U.S. in situ heavy oil, or kerogen, can be produced commercially), with another 2.4 trillion in Canada and 2 trillion-plus in South America -- compared with conventional Middle Eastern and North African oil resources of 1.2 trillion.

The problem was always how to unlock the deposits in the Americas economically. Today, Brazil is believed to have the capacity to pump 2 million barrels a day from “pre-salt” deepwater resources (deposits of crude found more than a mile below the surface of the Atlantic Ocean) that until the last couple of years were technologically inaccessible. Similar opportunities are said to reside in Canadian oil sands, where petroleum is extracted from tar sediment in open pits, and in Venezuela where Orinoco heavy crude is already under extraction. Oil-thirsty China has also recognized the energy potential of the Americas, investing billions in Canada, the United States, and Latin America.

The boom in the Americas, meanwhile, has a geopolitical component for the Middle East


and North Africa where political regimes under challenge may not be able to count on ever-rising oil prices to calm restive populations.

The Caribbean Connection: An LNG Export Pendulum

In the 1990’s the government of the twin-island nation of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) moved forward with the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, the first in the Latin American and Caribbean region. During the first decade of the 21st century this small Caribbean country was providing at times as much as 89 per cent (in 2005) of all U.S. imports of LNG. Currently, T&T’s LNG exports to United States have dropped to 17 percent, and 81 percent of its LNG exports now go to markets in South America, Europe and Asia where prices for the commodity are higher. T&T’s new LNG export thrust is primarily a response to new market opportunities.

Despite a complex and capital intensive value chain, LNG is now regarded as a competitively-priced energy commodity where once rigid sales contracts are being replaced rapidly by short term arrangements and arbitrage. With companies in the U.S. investing in shale gas for export, T&T now faces the prospect of U.S. exports of LNG into its (Trinidad’s) traditional Caribbean markets.

T&T invented the LNG business in the Caribbean and despite expected competition from U.S. and Colombian LNG exporters its producers intend to capitalize on the smaller regional markets in Central America and the Caribbean. With four existing LNG trains and the possibility of a fifth it is well placed to compete. But more than that, in order for T&T to continue as a reliable LNG exporter to world markets the government must now encourage the oil companies to replace a minimum 100 per cent of production and increase field activities to shore up current probable and possible reserves.

Energy Efficiency: The First Fuel

Yet there are reasons to move beyond oil. One of Mr. Yergin’s arguments focuses on the importance of thinking seriously about one energy source that “has the potential to have the biggest impact of all.” That source is efficiency. More efficient buildings, cars, airplanes, computers and other products have the potential to change our world. Today, energy efficiency has moved from contention to consensus. Environmental groups and energy companies agree that it should be at the top of the agenda and could well be called the “first fuel”; for it has had the single biggest impact of any source in the energy mix. The United States is twice as energy efficient today as it was in the 1970s. But as important as efficiency is in the United States and other developed countries, it is even more urgent in the fast-growing emerging markets such as China.

Conclusion

This snapshot demonstrates that the contemporary fluidity in the world energy system places a burden on individual countries to shape their strategies to meet their energy needs. They also have to be concerned about the manner in which their actions have implications for other countries in the international system. As is visible in the United States today, some countries become divided and clogged by special interests in the energy business. Unfortunately, there as elsewhere, more often than not politics can trump economics with respect to the devil’s excrement.

Professor Anthony T. Bryan is a Senior Associate (non-Resident) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. and a Senior Fellow at the Institute of International Relations, the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad.


BAN URGES UNITY IN CREATING ‘FUTURE WE WANT’ “We need everyone to work together to create the future we want,” United

Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said mid-March urging the world body to rally behind the recommendations of his blue ribbon panel for launching a new, people-powered agenda for development which would eradicate poverty and promote inclusive growth, while protecting the environment and making consumption and production patterns more sustainable.

Presenting the final report of his High-level Panel on Global Sustainability to an informal meeting of the General Assembly, the Secretary-General said the Panel’s vision also included reducing inequality while combating climate change and ensuring respect for a range of other planetary boundaries. Its 56 recommendations fell under three main headings: empowering people to make sustainable choices; working towards a sustainable economy; and strengthening institutional governance.

The report, titled “Resilient people, resilient planet: a future worth choosing” was the outcome of work carried out by the team that Mr. Ban established in August 2010 to formulate a new blueprint for sustainable development. It was co-chaired by former Finnish President Tarja Halonen and President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, whom the Secretary-General thanked alongside other Panel members, for their hard work, commitment and leadership.

Mr. Ban encouraged Governments to examine closely the recommendations addressed to them, many of which would involve long-term measures and changes in mindset. At the same time, he urged them to ensure that those recommendations that were ripe for immediate action would become part of the outcome of the upcoming United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, known as “Rio+20”.


This year the Energy Chamber has provided us with the theme ‘striking

the balance’ – which I personally find to be very intriguing and wide in scope. There are so many places we could go with this topic.

If you speak with someone from my company you will find that we often think of the topic of balance in terms of mutual benefits. In other words how do we ensure that what is good for company is also good for country? Many here might be thinking about balance in terms of the economic returns across the gas value chain.

Or maybe, some might be thinking about the right balance between regulation and efficiency. Whatever the balancing act being considered, in my estimation there is one unifying theme of importance and that is competitiveness. A brief word of caution though before I make a few points on the topic of competitiveness. Often, conversations about balance translate to conversations about trade-offs.

And when discussing important trade-offs it is sometimes useful to be clear about what can’t be traded - the things that are key components of our value system. In this context, two values that bpTT holds dear are relevant – Safety and Respect. We must ensure that in all our conversations about balance over the next few days, Safety and Respect are not compromised.

So back to competitiveness. Striking the right balance is of extreme importance because it is a conduit to increasing Trinidad & Tobago’s competitive position in the global energy industry. This conference should therefore provide you with the opportunity to explore

Following is an abbreviated version of a speech delivered by Mr. Norman Christie, President, BP Trinidad and Tobago to the

Trinidad and Tobago Energy Conference 2012

whether or not the right balance is being struck to ensure the right competitive standing of our industry.

From BPTT’s vantage point, it is important to note that we start this conversation from the platform of a strong historical record. BPTT has been a partner with Trinidad & Tobago almost as long as this country has been independent. The length of our tenure in Trinidad & Tobago is not by accident. The prolific hydrocarbon basins, stable politics,

fair fiscal framework, and available talent have made our assets competitive in the BP portfolio and made Trinidad & Tobago competitive by world standards. This competitive standing has also resulted in continuing investments by BP in Trinidad & Tobago. Our successful bid for 2 deepwater blocks, our plans to spend US$200 million on ocean bottom seismic in our existing acreage, our plans to invest capital of approximately USD$900 million in 2012 and ongoing investments in human capital and in the communities in which we operate are all testaments to the fact that we deem Trinidad & Tobago to be competitive.

This is never a static assessment though. We all know that we cannot rest on our laurels as the competitive landscape is changing in dramatic and unmistakable ways. There are new oil and gas basins opening up, new players, changing technologies, and locally the subsurface and surface landscape are becoming more economically challenging. Access to resources is getting harder and more costly and infrastructure is aging. How do we stay competitive in light of these changing paradigms? Well that is why we are all here to


ensure we remain on top of our game in terms of policy and application. Trinidad and Tobago has developed a successful gas value chain business and one which many other energy producing countries are seeking to emulate.

The question we have to ask though is - will the formula that got us here today be the formula that will take the industry forward for the next 20+ years? What are the policy changes that are required to ensure this industry continues to remain vibrant and competitive in a changing global and local landscape? Obviously I can’t answer the how of competitiveness in the short time I have in front of you this morning. Instead I would like to spend a few minutes emphasizing the why. Why is it so important to strike the right balance and improve competitiveness?

Well, first a statement of the obvious – striking the right balance is critical to attracting and keeping investments. To emphasize this point I will utilize a quote I heard recently from Walter Wriston, a legendary former head of Citi. He said “capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated.” Similarly, the Honourable Winston Dookeran, Minister of Finance is known to use this quote, “money has no sovereignty”. In my business this is certainly true. I mentioned all the money that BP plans to invest in Trinidad & Tobago earlier. However, there is always the proviso that each day I am in competition with other businesses

across the globe that have projects requiring investments. So, in a real sense every year bpTT is competing for new capital which needs to be attracted in the same way that a new company is attracted to Trinidad & Tobago. This is particularly striking when you think about Trinidad and Tobago competing for capital against huge resource basins and markets such as Brazil, Angola, China, India, and Russia.

When we consider capital staying where it is well treated we need to think about things such as how we improve the efficiency of the regulatory processes that govern the industry. The regulators have an important job to do and we absolutely respect the role that they play in the industry but as a country we need to find ways to improve the efficiency of our regulatory processes so that when the capital does come it can get to work quickly and efficiently.

A second reason why striking the balance is important now is because time is against us. We need to prove up new reserves, reach new agreements for gas supply, and build or fix infrastructure. All of these things take time and in my estimation we are already playing catch up.

We need to get ahead of the game and to do this we need to improve the speed of decision making and improve coordination of activity across the industry. Inaction or slow action is not an option.

BP Trinidad and Tobago's (bpTT) Serrette platform in Trinidad waters in the company's east coast offshore acreage.Photo: BPTT


The Caribbean tourism industry is holding its own, remaining afloat and resilient amidst turbulence in the

marketplace. Tourist arrivals to the Caribbean region remained buoyant in 2011, continuing the recovery process which began in 2010.

Still, there were signs that we are not yet out of the woods, the figures revealed uneven growth among the destinations and revenue continued to lag arrivals.

Overall, the Caribbean welcomed an estimated 23.8 million tourists in 2011, 3.3 per cent rise over 2010 when just over 23 million stay-over visitors came to our shores.

With the exception of May and October, which were down marginally, the region recorded a rise on arrivals every month in 2011 over the corresponding month of the previous year.

Tourist arrivals during the winter months (January to April) were up 4.4 per cent over the previous winter, which had grown by 3.9 per cent over 2009. The summer period ending December recorded a lower than expected increase of three per cent. Among the factors contributing to this performance were low consumer and business confidence and a weak US dollar.

The larger destinations, including Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, continued the historical trend of leading growth in the region. This subgroup, which accounts for more than half of all arrivals to the region on an annual basis, grew by 4.2 per cent.

Tourism in the Dutch Caribbean performed slightly better, recording a 4.9 per cent rise, with robust performances in Curaçao and Aruba of 13.9 per cent and 5.6 per cent respectively.

Following are remarks made by Sean Smith, Statistical Specialist, Caribbean Tourism Organisation at the State of the Industry News Conference in February

Reflecting poor performances from the European markets, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) had a much slower rate of recovery, with arrivals up by just 1.2 per cent. This was as a result of modest growth of 1.8 per cent in the OECS countries, coupled with one per cent increase in arrivals to the Other CARICOM Countries.

The larger grouping of Commonwealth Countries made up of CARICOM plus Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands recorded a 2.2 per cent rise, while Martinique, the lone French Caribbean destination reporting during the period, saw arrivals go up 3.9 per cent.

Sean Smith, Statistical Specialist, CTOPhoto: jamaica-gleaner.com


Market Performance

The Caribbean recorded modest performances from all major source markets in 2011. Stay-over arrivals from the United States were up 1.7 per cent when compared to the previous year. Anguilla, Barbados, Belize and Curaçao were among the destinations with increased business from the US. Contrary to the norm, there were fewer US residents arriving in some destinations that traditionally benefit the most from this market.

On the other hand, Canada continued to outpace all other markets, with arrivals from there up 6.8 per cent over 2010. This represented a continuation of the sustained growth experienced in the market over the last five years.

The arrivals pattern has not changed much, with Cancún, Cuba and the Dominican Republic receiving the majority of Canadian tourists. However, 13 other CTO member countries also recorded increases in arrivals from Canada.

Of the 23 destinations with market details, 14 reported increases in arrivals from Europe, with Barbados (6.0 per cent), Cancún (3.9 per cent), Curaçao (2.9 per cent) and Cuba (1.1 per cent) being the best performers, receiving hundreds of thousands of European.

Several other destinations recorded growth in arrivals from Europe on smaller numbers. Still, compared to 2010, the overall figures from Europe remained flat, with the Caribbean recording a 0.6 per cent increase.

The United Kingdom continues to be one of the most important markets in Europe for the CARICOM countries. When we take into consideration only the countries that have reported, the CARICOM countries received over 58 per cent of all arrivals from the UK in 2011. This figure is likely to change, however, when we receive data from the remaining member states.

With 23 countries reporting, we experienced a decline in arrivals from the UK for the third straight year, mainly due to a weak economy and increases in the Air Passenger Duty.

Total arrivals from this market to the CARICOM sub-region increased modestly by 1.7 per cent, thanks to increases of four per cent or greater to Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Montserrat and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. It should be noted, however, that arrival levels were still below those of 2007.

There were encouraging developments in intra-regional traffic, which grew by three-and-a-half per cent when compared to 2010. But there were concerns for those OECS countries for which the Caribbean remains the most important market.

This sub-group recorded a 9.8 per cent drop in arrivals from the Caribbean. On the other hand, the larger countries in the Commonwealth Countries Group experienced a 10.3 per cent rise, led by Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica which reported robust 15 per cent increases.

The hotel sector performed marginally better last year than it did in 2010. According to Smith Travel Research, average room occupancy was 61.8 per cent compared to 60.3 per cent in 2010, while the average room rate reached US$167.56 compared to US$163.36 in 2010. These results


indicate some measure of recovery within this sub-sector.

This, notwithstanding, indications are that the pattern of visitor spending is changing significantly throughout the region. Nervous cost-conscious tourists are using the most economical sources of goods and services available in the destinations.

This switching from higher cost to lower cost suppliers has resulted in the reduction of average spending which has contributed to stagnant or ebbing foreign exchange revenue streams.

Caribbean Performance - Cruise Activity

In 2011, there was continued growth of the cruise industry internationally, with the grouping of cruise lines serving the region, the Florida Caribbean Cruise Association, reporting that fourteen new ships were inaugurated from international ports-of-call with convenient departures from nearby catchment cities.

Current cruise ship orders extending through 2014 include 26 new builds (19 ocean-going vessels and 7 European cruise riverboats), with 51 thousand berths at a value of nearly 12 billion US dollars. Huge investments in cruise ships reflect the commitment and optimism of that industry’s stakeholders.

But, destinations in the Southern Caribbean were severely affected by the redeployment of several cruise vessels, particularly during the summer months. Much of this rescheduling saw the relocated ships plying routes outside of the Caribbean. Consequently, the Caribbean Cruise sector showed no appreciable change in 2011, with cruise passenger arrivals increasing marginally by only 0.3 per cent to reach 20.6 million.

This inconsequential change in Caribbean cruise arrivals was in contrast to the 6.6 per cent increase worldwide predicted by the cruise industry for their international arrivals in 2011.

Prognosis For 2012

Economies in both North America and Europe are still under considerable stress. Higher than usual unemployment continues to prevail in the main source markets, while monetary and fiscal systems remain under intense pressure.

The US is into an election year and while some may anticipate this as a reason for US travellers to stay home, there is no hard evidence to substantiate this. The Olympic Games in England this year could also be a significant distraction from North-South travel.

It is expected that the continued addition to cruise stock internationally will have a positive effect on Caribbean schedules, if only residually.

However, high oil prices and the tendency to home-port close to densely populated catchment areas in places like the Mediterranean and other large European countries, especially in summer, will be some of the factors contributing to the dampening of Caribbean cruise business overall in 2012.

In light of these realities, arrivals to the Caribbean are not expected to exceed a three per cent increase in 2012 and visitor expenditure is also not expected to grow meaningfully during this year. Based on preliminary schedules, cruise arrivals to the Caribbean are also not likely rise by more than two to three per cent.


The Tourism Development Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (TDC) worked hard to promote the twin-island

state during the 30th Caribbean Hotel Tourism Association (CHTA) Marketplace.

A delegation that included Sandra Perkins, TDC CEO; Cornell Buckradee, acting TDC marketing manager and Avion Hercules, THA marketing manager met with tour operators and industry buyers to promote Trinidad and Tobago.

“CHTA Marketplace is one of the most influential region specific tourism events of the year for destinations, hotels and tour operators. With our 50th (Independence) anniversary and new marketing initiatives, the TDC felt it necessary to make our presence known with influential tourism brand meetings and a sponsored press luncheon for media. We look forward to building brand Trinidad and Tobago from our successes at this conference and moving the tourism needle in the right direction,” said Sandra Perkins, TDC CEO.

The TDC delegation met with online travel companies including Orbitz, Expedia and Travelocity; tour operators British Airways Holidays, Classic Vacations and Air Canada Vacations; and journalists from Islands Magazine, Black Meetings & Tourism, TravelAge West and Selling Long Haul (UK). TDC also hosted a press conference/luncheon with over 40 media from the US, UK, Europe, Caribbean and Latin America in attendance. The event gave the media a chance to learn about marketing initiatives and projected tourism goals for 2012.

Also during Marketplace Le Grand Courlan Spa Resort won Expedia/Hotels.com 2011 Best Year on Year Growth, Small Hotel Award.

Promoting Trinidad and Tobago

From left: Cornell Buckradee, Acting Marketing Director TDC, Josef Forstmayr, President, Caribbean Hotel Association, Sandra Perkins, CEO TDC, the Honorable Ricky Skerritt, Minister of Tourism St. Kitts & Nevis and Chairman of the Caribbean Tourism Organization and the Honorable Vincent Vanderpool-Wallace, Minister of Tourism of The Bahamas.

About The Tourism Development Company Limited (TDC)

The Tourism Development Company Limited (TDC) is a state enterprise of the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, mandated to develop and market Trinidad and Tobago’s tourism product and improve the local tourism sector. Formed in May 2005, the TDC is the implementation arm of the Ministry of Tourism, dedicated to realizing the vision for tourism in Trinidad and Tobago. This vision is guided by several long-term goals and the intention is for tourism to contribute to Trinidad and Tobago’s attainment of developed nation status by the year 2020.For more information, visit www.tdc.co.tt.


The Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Association (CHTA) 30th edition of Caribbean Travel Marketplace held at

the Atlantis, Paradise Island in January saw a 17% increase (over 2011) in buyer companies with 142 in attendance, 11 of which were from Russia, as well as an increase in buyer delegates which totalled 344 versus 314 in 2011.

Caribbean Travel Marketplace also received strong support from the public sector with the participation of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) and ministers of tourism from the CTO-member countries: Antigua & Barbuda, Anguilla, The Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Grenada, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Turks & Caicos Islands, Trinidad & Tobago and the United States Virgin Islands.

“It was good to have the ministers from the public sector supporting the private sector as we as a region stand united in our efforts to remain the leading warm weather destination in the Western hemisphere,” said Josef Forstmayr, president of CHTA.

Caribbean Travel Marketplace is the requisite business-to-business marketing event for the Caribbean hotel and tourism industry. At the event, hoteliers, tourism providers and tour operators/wholesalers from around the world scheduled 12,250 appointments over the course of the two-day event up from 11,880 appointments in 2011.

Buyer companies came from Argentina, The Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Canada (nine companies), Ecuador, Germany, Italy, Japan, Martinique, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Russia (11 companies), Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom (22 companies) and United States (74 companies).

“This marks the 30th consecutive year that CHTA has held the event. It remains the region’s most important and largest marketing event

Caribbean Travel Marketplace sees 17% increase in buyer companies

and the single most important CHTA benefit for our hotel members,” said Mr. Forstmayr in his opening remarks to conference delegates.

In touting his “Tourism is Key, “ Mr. Forstmayr stated: “There has to be a strong consensus of our leaders and the public so that travel and tourism will receive the full support it needs as the Caribbean’s most vital export industry. It is the fastest way to create jobs, grow the economy and generate income for all. Every citizen needs to understand that, whether or not he or she works directly in the tourism areas, every tourist’s dollar brings economic and social benefits to every level of our society.”

In his welcome remarks to Caribbean Travel Marketplace delegates, Hubert A. Ingraham, Prime Minister, Commonwealth of The Bahamas had a positive outlook for tourism to the Caribbean stating,

“We begin 2012 with the hope that this year will mark a distinct point of recovery and return to sustained growth for tourism in our region.


We believe that early signs of improvement are evident. In The Bahamas, we saw a robust uptick in arrivals since November last. By a number of measures, this past December was particularly good for the 14 major Nassau and Paradise Island hotels.”

Mr. Forstmayr highlighted airlift challenges that the Caribbean faces stating, “There are no ‘drive-ins’ in the Caribbean – most of our guests arrive by air. CHTA estimated that in 2010 the Caribbean governments collectively paid US$45 million to secure air-lift – only to find that our airlift is still inadequate and way too expensive for our visitors.

ALTA Member Airlines Passenger Traffic Increases 5.7% in January

The Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA) announced that its member airlines carried 13.2 million passengers in January, up 5.7% from the previous year. Traffic (RPK) grew 6.6% and capacity (ASK) increased 8.1%, bringing down the load factor to 77.9%, 1.1 percentage points lower than in January 2011. Freight ton kilometers increased 14.3% in January, reaching 350,439 FTKs.

“Furthermore intra-Caribbean tourism once represented 13% of the region’s tourism; as much as Canada. The combined population of Caribbean countries is 40 million. However, due to the lack of a competitive and truly regional airline, regional tourism has been suffocated by outrageous ticket prices and a cumbersome and ill-conceived network.

“Caribbean nationals cannot travel freely between their countries without being subjected to visas, long immigration lines and other bureaucratic indulgences that stifle any sense of hospitality, the Caribbean’s trade-mark.”

JANUARY

2012 2011 Change

Passengers 13,152,147 12,444,002 5.7%

RPK (millions) 20,296.8 19,035.9 6.6%

ASK (millions) 26,069.0 24,121.7 8.1%

PLF 77.9% 78.9% -1.1pts

FTK (millions) 350,439 306,687 14.3%


The 16th Annual Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Investment Conference (CHTIC) is geared to emphasize the need for public and private sector partnerships to maximize investment opportunities in the Caribbean tourism industry. CHTIC is scheduled for April 24-26, 2012 at the Sheraton Puerto Rico Hotel & Casino in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

The comprehensive conference program provides delegates with all of the necessary tools including attracting the capital from financial institutions and utilizing partnerships with the public sector. The program is designed to provide investors with ample opportunities in the region and put tourism related businesses in the best possible position as the economy continues to rebound.

“Tourism is our region’s number one economy and we must do everything to attract new tourism investment into the region to be able to expand our tourism product and therefore maintain our global competitive position as the world’s leading warm weather destination”, said Josef Forstmayr, president of the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Association (CHTA).

“This year’s Investment Conference program will be geared to jump start the investment opportunities in the tourism industry and will feature a varied program geared towards developing the necessary partnerships to achieve successful investments for all parties involved”.

CHTIC, organized by CHTA and the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), attracts government officials, investment promotion agencies, hoteliers, investors, lenders, architects, planners, construction companies, financial organizations, real estate/mortgage intermediaries, developers, industry officials and other tourism entities.

Advertorial

Among the general session topics include:

Setting The Scene: Challenges, Potential And Opportunities – The Caribbean On The World Tourism StageOpportunities In The Caribbean Tourism Industry – Public And Private Sector Partnerships From a n Investor’s PerspectiveThe Managing Directors Check-InShared Ownership – A Caribbean OpportunityReal Estate And HospitalityStrategies And Options To Deal With Troubled AssetsTarget Markets And Tapping Into New OpportunitiesThe Power Of BrandingCapital Markets Outlook – Where Will The Capital Come From?

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The University of the West Indies Faculty of Law, Cave Hill won the 4th Annual Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) International Law Moot Competition held in late March at the CCJ Courtroom 1 in Port of Spain, Trinidad.

This year’s Law Moot received the participation of six teams of students representing law schools and law faculties in the Caribbean:

The Law Faculty of the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill, BarbadosThe Law Faculty of the University of GuyanaEugene Dupuch Law School in the BahamasHugh Wooding Law School in TrinidadNorman Manley Law School in JamaicaThe Law Faculty of the University of Technology of Jamaica.

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UWI FACULTY OF LAW CAVE HILL WINS MOOT COMPETITION

The Caribbean Court of Justice’s Annual International Law Moot Court Competition was inaugurated in March 2009, to encourage budding attorneys to become familiar with the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas, and other areas of International Law.

While delivering welcome remarks, Sir Dennis Byron, President of the CCJ, highlighted the successes of the moot as; “…building a regional cadre of lawyers and research practitioners who are actively engaged in the process of bringing the Treaty to life in Caribbean jurisprudence.”

This year’s moot case dealt with the imposition of the Common External Tariff (CET),

together with other issues involving environmental law and international law. Arguments were presented before the panel of CCJ Judges and the Chairman of the Trinidad and Tobago Environmental Commission. The panel applauded the submissions of the students, and commented on the “exceptionally high standard” of the arguments of the mooters.

The winning team comprised of Tania Alexis-Prime, Rashad Brathwaite and Donna Fuller, with team advisor Mr. Westmin R. A. James. This is the first time that a faculty of law team has won the competition.


The 4th High Level Forum on “Aid Effectiveness” held in Busan, the Republic of Korea from 29 November – 1 December 2011, was attended by Heads of State, Ministers and representatives of developing and developed countries, multilateral and bilateral institutions, and various kinds of public, civil society, private, parliamentary, local and regional organizations.

The Forum is widely acknowledged as having advocated a fundamental shift in the thinking and approach to “development assistance” and “aid effectiveness” so far enshrined in the Paris Principles (2005) and Accra Agenda for Action (2008), derived from the 2nd and 3rd Forum, respectively with binding commitments to which both developed and developing countries, if they so desired, would have formally subscribed.

Beyond Aid - Towards Effective Development Cooperation

Column

By Ambassador P.I Gomes

The shift at the Busan Forum is captured by the Outcome Declaration in that critical section entitled: “from effective aid to cooperation for effective development”.

Key words are of course “cooperation” and “effective development” that sharply contrast with the decades-long “donor-recipient” terminology and thinking that underlined a prevalent mind-set and attitude. That attitude, intentional or otherwise, unfortunately portrayed “aid” policies and programmes as if they were hand-outs of welfare generosity from “rich” nations of the North to predominantly “mendicant” nations of the South.

Understandably, well-intentioned Ministers of Development Cooperation have a challenge with colleague Ministers and tax-payers, in general, to convince them that “aid”, more correctly, “development assistance” is not charity but a responsibility and commitment to the eradication of poverty, wherever it exists.

Scope for post-Busan engagementsThe Busan Forum has contributed to reversing

those negative perceptions and promoting an alternative paradigm for a Global coalition premised on equality.

The Declaration and planned follow-up augur well especially for international organisations and inter-governmental entities, such as the African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Group of 79 developing countries, to use the Busan Declaration as a useful platform on which to catalyse and deepen the process for “South-South & Triangular Cooperation for Sustainable Development”(para. 30 &31).

Explicitly, the Declaration states that: The inputs to sustainable development

extend well beyond financial cooperation to the knowledge and development experience of all actors and countries. South-South and triangular cooperation have the potential to transform developing countries’ policies and approaches to service delivery by bringing effective, locally owned solutions that are appropriate to country contexts. (para.30)

Indeed, the Declaration significantly recognizes that:

…many countries engaged in South-South cooperation both provide and receive diverse resources and expertise at the same time, and that this should enrich cooperation without affecting a country’s eligibility to receive assistance from others.


This important dual dimension of South-South cooperation (S-Sc) deserves to be emphasised. It is equally important that traditional donors avoid reducing development finance to those developing countries , especially emerging economies with relatively high growth rates, which are making substantial contributions to innovative development strategies based on their own success. Brazil’s bio-ethanol technology transfer to Mozambique is a good example.

But also, Cuba’s outstanding experience in health care and medical services is recognized worldwide as a remarkable contribution to reducing infant mortality and improving maternal health by increasing access to higher numbers of professional and para-professional medical services, particularly in remote regions of developing countries.

Moreover, in practical terms the sharing of knowledge and mutual learning will be done by such means as a) scaling up- where appropriate- the use of triangular approaches; (b) making fuller use of S-S & TrC, “recognizing the success of these approaches to date and the synergies they offer; (c) encouraging the development of networks for knowledge exchange, peer learning, etc and (d) supporting efforts to strengthen local and national capacities to engage effectively in S-S and TrC.

Scope, functions and Limitations of S-S & TrC

These are indeed areas for an enlarged scope and global partnership on “effective development cooperation”. However, the significance and importance to be attributed to “knowledge-sharing and mutual learning” are limited by access to financial resources, which are necessary, if even not sufficient or the most critical, for “effective development”.

Hence, it is reasonable to ask, as skeptics of S-S & TrC frequently do, how will availability and access to financial resources be ensured to undertake the agenda of the new paradigm of “development cooperation”.

The costs of the activities proposed under the S-S &TrC framework have considerable

financial implications if they are to have substantial impact on what was the originally conceived “aid effectiveness” objective, viz. improved standards of living in developing countries. Thus one must ask how and from what sources will additional sources of development finance be found or provided? The aspect of “additionality” becomes central and has been clearly expressed by the ACP Group which argued that S-SC be treated as a complement not a replacement of traditional ODA commitments, agreed to be 0.7% of Gross National Income (GNI) of the 24 member countries of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD.

A related question arises on the extent to which emerging economies, although still developing, can be encouraged to be sources of development finance in the S-S & TrC agenda? This question is being posed by traditional donors, many of whose economies are now in recession or moderate recovery but certainly at lower levels of growth than “emerging market economies” such as China, India and Brazil, for example.

These are questions occupying the attention of the “Building Block” on S-S & TrC and is at the heart of the efforts for a Global Platform for Horizontal Partnerships.

Globalising “development cooperation” to overcome “aid” dependency

In light of the above, forging a “coalition” of traditional donors and the wider spectrum of emerging economies, regional organizations, civil societies and favourably-disposed private enterprise remains a major concern of the Working Party on Aid Effectiveness (WP-EFF).

That the Outcome Document was


successfully accepted by consensus of all stakeholders and with a prominent role attributed to S-S & TrC was undoubtedly an achievement of major political compromise. It also acknowledged that the development cooperation landscape is “experiencing decisive changes, several of them triggered by the pro-active role of southern partners… broadening the menu of development options for addressing key development challenges.”

Moreover, the mandate given to the Working Party (WP-EFF) to develop by 2012 “working arrangements” for a Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation can hopefully be a step towards an inclusive, more representative and transparent mechanism to deliver multilateral development assistance. This seems realistic given the three-fold functions of the Global Partnership as: (i) to support and ensure accountability for the implementation of commitments at the political level; (b) to draw on and benefit from existing partnerships…(for)…knowledge-exchange and mutual learning; and (iii) a broader development effectiveness role beyond…the Busan commitments.

Political responsibility to ensure accountability of development finance is portrayed as having the dimension of “good governance, the rule of law and human rights” as integral to effective development. But arbitrary application by donors can not be justifiably introduced as a conditionality of development finance.

While clearly the Global Partnership includes the function of “knowledge sharing and mutual learning” in which S-Sc experiences provide significant social and intellectual capital, there remains the concern on the silence of

appropriate funding arrangements by which S-S & TrC can contribute to overcoming “aid dependency”. The appeal for traditional donors to live up to or re-commit to their obligations of 0.7% of GNI is very important to middle income countries in which the majority of the “poor” is now found.

For a more broad-based representation to establish the operational mechanisms of the Global Partnership by June 2012, a Post-Busan Interim Group (PBIG) has begun deliberations.

Additionally, at the time of writing, preparations are being made for a meeting to craft an Action Plan designed by countries and organizations, which includes entities such as the ACP Group, Asian Development Bank, Pacific Islands Forum and CARICOM.

The Plan will comprise SS & TrC experiences in capacity building, learning activities, mechanisms for knowledge sharing and a monitoring and evaluation framework on contributions of S-S & TrC to global development goals.

In conclusion, it is encouraging to note the rethinking and organizing that is being promoted by a broad coalition of interests to deal with the “development problematique”. Efforts have been undertaken to discard distorted and misleading notions of “aid”, expand a mainly input-focused list of principles on “aid effectiveness” and even to search for an acceptable definition of “development effectiveness”. These efforts can contribute to alternative modalities and different “institutional arrangements” in the architecture of “development cooperation” but the larger substantive questions of the policy and conceptual framework in which poverty can be abolished and sustainable development with equity achieved for societies of the 21st century warrant further reflections.

To share some thoughts on these issues, from the work of Ha-Joon Chang, the Cambridge economist, may be attempted in another issue of the Business Journal.

Dr. P.I Gomes is Guyana’s Ambassador to the ACP Group and European Union


Referring to an ECLAC-commissioned assessment conducted by former Barbados Foreign Minister, Dame Billie Millie, Ms. Quarless said the report found that ECLAC fell short in providing support for the analyses, research and studies that it conducts.

“We identify the challenges but we don’t do enough in recommending the solutions, neither are we going out to the member states and engaging them. So what we are doing now is focusing on the design of policies to solve the challenges we identify and we are well-known for our reputation in research and analysis.

“We are now looking to see how we can assist governments at both in the regional and national level in the design of these policies and then in activities in workshops, seminars and one-on-one training that builds the institutional capacity,” she said in an interview with Business Journal at her Port of Spain office.

Jamaican-born Ms. Quarless, a former Chief of the Small Islands Developing States Unit in the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations said ECLAC has always provided quality research, analyses and studies but feedback from countries suggests that the organisation needs to go further and become involve in implementation.

A more dyanmic ECLAC

“Yes, ECLAC has identified what the challenges are but unless and until you have action that influences a fundamental change in the member state, there’s a sense that the cycle is not complete. This is really where we’re trying to focus. We’re calling ourselves policy entrepreneurs and we are making sure that the policy is implemented and we support the implementation of the programme so we make it meaningful.”

Giving an example, she referred to Anguilla which wants to develop their high-end tourism in attracting yachts to the island but wants to ensure that its marine facility does not result in coastal and marine pollution.

ECLAC is currently engaged in a study for the Anguillan government, looking at all aspects of the proposed marine facility. But the work does not stop there for ECLAC. The organisation plans to sit with the government and engage them in other issues including spin-off benefits for communities.

“So our support with Anguilla will not end just with the study but we would want to go further,” added Ms. Quarless.

Dianne Quarless, Director ECLAC. Photo: ECLAC

Diane Quarless, newly appointed Director of the Port of Spain-based sub-regional headquarters of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is on a mission.

Her mission: to make ECLAC more effective and hands-on in providing solutions to the myriad of problems in its 20 Caribbean member states.


Having spent 22 years as a representative of Jamaica in the Foreign Service including as a deputy ambassador at the UN, the new ECLAC director is keenly interested in positioning Caribbean countries to join the global market.

But with the majority of Caribbean countries buckling under huge public debt and dampening economic growth, she admits the challenge is formidable.

“The governments are facing challenges that they would need to find the courage to take the tough decisions to turn their economies around. We recognise that because they are open economies, when the north sneezes, we catch a cold. We are susceptible to the vagaries of the international economic climate; we suffer dramatically because many of our industries depend so much on the external market.”

To assist countries, ECLAC plans to engage in workshops throughout member countries on the management of their public sector debt.

“We also need to look at ways to stimulate growth in the niche sector, higher level of savings, getting central banks to reduce their ratio requirement to encourage savings, we need to explore niche markets, where do we find special growth sectors that we can promote, and these are the things we will be focusing on to help governments but governments need to think outside the box...,” said Ms. Quarless.

ECLAC is also working along with countries on climate change adaptation including transformation of building codes, developing alternative sources of energy, the design of more sustainable tourism products among others.

Ms. Quarless sees ECLAC as being a distinctive organisation, being both Latin American and the Caribbean and part of the UN family.

Further, she sees her new position at ECLAC as an opportunity to help shape the development of member states.

“I have in my DNA a genuine interest in seeing the interest of the Caribbean. I’m not a representative of an international institution. I’m a representative of the Caribbean who happens to be working in an international institution and that’s the difference,” she said.

Diane Quarless assumed responsibilities as Director of the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean on November 2, 2011. She previously served for six years as Chief of the Small Island Developing States Unit, and also as Head of Partnerships for Sustainable Development in the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.

She began her career as a diplomat in the Foreign Service of the Government of Jamaica, serving as policy analyst, adviser and practitioner in development management. She was twice assigned to the Permanent Mission of Jamaica to the United Nations in New York, more recently as Deputy Permanent Representative during 1998 to 2002, when she actively participated in advancing the broader strategic interests of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), the Alliance of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) and the G-77 developing countries. She was elected a Vice Chair and Rapporteur on the Bureau of the Preparatory Committee for the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002.

She has in-depth knowledge of the development challenges facing the Caribbean, and experience in the management and oversight of capacity building programmes for the Caribbean and the wider group of Small Island Developing States. She has wide knowledge of the United Nations system, and a strong network of inter-agency partners.

Trained in international relations, she also holds a Masters degree in Development Studies with specialization in Environmental Management.


Caribbean - China Economic Relations:

What considerations for a sustainable relationship?

Traditionally, the Caribbean1 had economic relations predominantly with the

United States (US), Canada and Europe but in recent times the Caribbean has been engaging increasingly with other partners, China being the most significant. This relationship is being conducted in the context of shifting global economic power relations. This essay explores the implications of this new relationship for Caribbean development by examining the China - Caribbean relationship generally and more specifically the China Caribbean Economic and Trade Forum held in September 2011 in Trinidad and Tobago.

Several reasons inform China’s interest in the Caribbean. Arguably, the “One China Policy” is the main motivation for China’s engagement with the Caribbean. China’s motivation is being simultaneously driven by its ambitions for becoming a global superpower. The forces of economic globalisation have created opportunities for the rise of China as a global player, fuelling the need for new markets, investment opportunities and new sources of raw materials to sustain its economic growth.

China is therefore interested in oil and asphalt in Trinidad and Tobago; bauxite in Jamaica and Guyana and timber and minerals in Guyana.2 Additionally, The Caribbean provides an attractive market for Chinese products and a potential gateway for Chinese products to enter the US, Canada and the European Union. Finally, the Caribbean offers a destination for

� Caribbean in this paper refers to the member of states of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).� Bernal, Richard L. �0�0. The Dragon in the Caribbean: China-CARICOM Economic Relations, The Round Table,99: 408, �8� — 30�

Chinese investments and lucrative business opportunities for Chinese firms and employment of Chinese workers.3

The Caribbean too has many reasons for engaging with China. China is the emerging powerhouse. On an average, China has had close to double-digit annual growth rates for the last thirty years.4 China’s GDP per capita grew from US$800.00 in 2001 to US$2,500.00 in 2009. In 2009, the Chinese economy grew by 8.7 percent while that of the US and the EU went into

recession. Chinese overseas investment grew from less than US$ I billion before 2001 to over US$60 billion in 2010. 5

China therefore holds the potential for contributing to the region’s economic and social development by way of development assistance and investments. Additionally, the Caribbean views China as having the potential for transforming the global economic order by being a voice for Southern countries and an intermediary in multilateral fora.6 Whether or not China genuinely shares this view is a controversial matter. Along with the other players in the Caribbean, China represents an emerging counterweight to the economic and political influence of the EU and the US in the Caribbean Region. 3 ibid4 Bárcena, Alicia, Osvaldo Rosales. �0�0. The People’s Republic of China and Latin America and the Caribbean: towards a strategic relationship. ECLAC. http://www.eclac.org/publicaciones/xml/�/395��/China_Latin_America_Caribbean_strategic_relationship_906.pdf.5 Chen Deming. �0��. “China’s Impact on Global Trade and Growth.” World Economic Forum, �0��. http://www.weforum.org/videos/chinas-impact-global-trade-and-growth6 Golding, B. �0�0. “China- Caribbean ties for Development and Progress”. China Daily. February 3.http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/�0�0-0�/03/content_94�8665.htm

By Dr. Annita Montoute


The Third China–Caribbean Economic and Trade Forum held in Trinidad and Tobago in September 2011 indicates a deepening of the relationship between the parties.

The forum was convened with the objective of “…advance(ing) the trade and economic interaction and cooperation between China and the Caribbean region for common development and mutual benefit.”7

Vice Premier Wang Qishan announced several initiatives/proposals towards achieving this broad objective.

Among them preferential loans valued at US$1 billion for economic development; US$1 billion from the China Development Bank in commercial loans for infrastructural development; an investment protection agreement to promote two-way investment and a donation of US$1 million to the CARICOM Development Fund; assistance in building small-scale new energy projects; support of increase and diversification of Caribbean exports to China and promotion of trade facilitation.

� Address by the Honourable Stephen Cadiz, Minister of Trade and Industry, Trinidad and Tobago at the Opening Ceremony of the 3rd China-Caribbean Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum, Trinidad and Tobago, September �� – �4, �0��.

There were also initiatives for the promotion of tourist arrivals from China; provision of agricultural experts and the establishment of agricultural and fisheries demonstration projects; a Common Initiative on Agricultural and Fisheries Cooperation and a China-Caribbean Working Group on Agricultural and Fisheries Cooperation to promote cooperation in farm produce processing and trade; investment in agriculture, fisheries and agricultural human resources and agricultural research and development.8

What does this relationship with China mean for Caribbean development? There currently exists a huge and an increasing trade deficit between CARICOM and China which is unsustainable for long term development. Increasing exports will help reduce the trade imbalance and promote a more beneficial trade relationship. As equitable trade has the potential for delivering social and economic development, it must be given as much attention as is given to infrastructural projects.

8 Remarks by Vice Premier Wang Qishan at the Opening Ceremony of the 3rd China-Caribbean Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum, Trinidad and Tobago, September �� – �4, �0��.

Leaders at the opening of the forum including Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Vice Premier of China Wang Qishan. Photo: news.gov.tt


Some scholars have already observed that the nature of the trade relationship with China holds the danger of replicating that of the Caribbean with traditional partners.9 The trade relationship between China and the Caribbean is largely based on the importation of manufactured products from China and the exportation of raw materials from the Caribbean.

Many would have hoped that the relationship with China, a fellow developing country would be different from that of traditional partners and would have generated innovation and creativity. This has not been the case up to this point. The announcement that “(the) Chinese side will support the Caribbean countries in....diversifying export (the) mix.” is necessary in reversing the above trend. Projects and programmes with components specifically targeted at innovation and technological advancement must be deliberately and vigorously pursued. This will assist in moving away from exporting primarily raw materials to more value added products to China.

The generous commitments that China made at the Forum promise to further deepen ties between China and CARICOM and make the relationship even more comfortable.

China is increasingly being seen as a favoured partner for other reasons: China is viewed as a fellow developing country; China was never a colonizer and is not perceived to have exploited the Caribbean and China’s policy of non-interference in the governance of countries is particularly attractive to the Caribbean.

The Chinese ‘development model’ holds much appeal for the Caribbean because of the seemingly ‘no strings attached” policy it upholds. While it is true that China does not seem to be concerned with governance models, human

9 This observation was made by Norman Girvan in the presentation “Global and Regional Reconfigurations of Power: Implications for Caribbean EU-Relations” presented at the Joint Caribbean EU Strategy: Reflections and Analysis workshop at the Institute of International Relations, UWI, April 15, �0��.

rights and the rule of law, there are other types of conditionalities i.e. the use of Chinese labour, design, and technology associated with Chinese aid and investment. This model discourages innovation and technology transfer 10 and does not generate employment in any meaningful way.

In conclusion, while the issues discussed above are important, probably the most critical is the degree to which the engagement with

China strengthens Caribbean regional integration. Regional integration is an important prerequisite for Caribbean development. CARICOM has not engaged with China in a manner which promotes regional integration.

This is reflected in the predominantly bilateral nature of the relationship which may be leading to competition among Caribbean States for assistance from China. If this trend

continues, this poses the danger of further hindering the cohesion of CARICOM and the integration process.

Regional integration should be the foundational pillar for informing the nature of engagement with China. Development projects and programmes should be part of a broad long term strategic plan for strengthening regional integration. A coordinated regional approach is therefore necessary in directing Chinese aid and development assistance for this purpose. In this vein, it is important for the Caribbean to jointly produce a policy position towards China as the latter did for the Caribbean in 2008.

Dr. Montoute is a Lecturer at the Institute of International Relations at the St. Augustine Campus of the University of

the West Indies (UWI), Trinidad.

�0 Bárcena, Alicia, Osvaldo Rosales, �0�0. The People’s Republic of China and Latin America and the Caribbean: towards a strategic relationship. ECLAC; see for recommendations in this regard.


The “Belize Scorecard and Outlook Report 2010”, in relation to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) reveals that Belize has made significant progress in the last years towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

particularly those related to improving maternal health, reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS and ensuring access to clean water.

The scorecard and outlook report was recently released at the Central Campus of the University of Belize.

The country has already met the target of reducing the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015, and aims to further improve it, and it has made significant progress on universal access to primary education, particularly in relation to net enrolment reaching 95 percent in 2011.

Other areas of success are related to maternal health, in which the country has succeeded in bringing to zero the number of maternal deaths and in ensuring and improving access to clean water to both urban and the rural communities. Belize, the report says, has also made remarkable progress in reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis.

Still, much is yet to be done…

Belize still faces some challenges particularly in relation to poverty reduction, employment generation, ensuring access to improved sanitation and the mainstreaming of gender across development planning and programming. Going forward, Belize will need to continue its efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. About the MDGs:The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – which range from halving extreme poverty to halting the spread of HIV/AIDS and providing universal primary education, all by the target date of 2015 – form a blueprint agreed to by the world’s leaders and all leading development institutions. They have galvanized unprecedented efforts to meet the needs of the world’s poorest people.

Net school enrolment has significantly increased reaching 95 percent in 2011The target of reducing the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 has already been achievedMaternal deaths have been brought to zero in 2011Access to clean water has been ensuredHowever, challenges remain particularly in relation to poverty reduction, employment generation, access to sanitation and gender equality.

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Belize accelerates progress towards the Millennium Development Goals

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It is an honour to be here with you today and to share the very timely preoccupation of the Economist — and participants alike

— about global food security. Will we be able to feed the world today, and will we be able to feed it tomorrow, is the question.

Back in 2007, the Economist placed a very provocative title on its cover: Is it the “End of Cheap Food,” it asked. I would argue that we need to start by reframing the question if our goal is to achieve long-term food security. Food prices, their ups and downs, or “volatility” as many now like to say, are but a manifestation of the underlying fundamentals of the food market. It is to those fundamentals that we must turn our attention.

To explain. Back in 2008, the world faced what it called a “food price crisis”. Since then, prices have started to fall, albeit remaining at a higher plateau than previous years because of, amongst other factors, the nutritional transition that the world is undergoing. But does that mean that the food crisis is over? Does it mean that food security has been attained? It has not.

Food prices fell since 2008 only because a global recession kicked-in to depress demand. We must also remember that while higher food prices are bad news for some, they are good news for others — I speak here of farmers. In the late ‘80s nothing was seen as a bigger catastrophe than low prices, and that’s when many government support programmes started to kick-in.

Feeding the World — the 9-billion people question

If our goal is to get to the causes of food “insecurity”, if our goal is to ensure that we have agricultural systems that are able to generate safe and sufficient food, feed and fibre, than we will need to ask broader questions. Perhaps even some troubling ones. But I understand, of course, the temptation of politicians to frame this debate around “price” or “volatility”; after all, high food prices can and have brought governments down.

Director-General of the World Trade Organisation, Pascal Lamy, in a speech at The Economist Conference “Feeding the World” in Geneva in February said “let us get our policy mix right on food production and on trade. We need to ask the difficult questions”.

BusinessJouRnAl|MARCH2012�1

Let me share with you some of my thoughts, then, on what we ought to be asking, after which I will turn to the international trade picture. First, is it safe that the world’s agricultural food production remains concentrated in only a handful of countries?

Today, five countries produce 70% of the world’s rice, three countries produce 80% of our soybeans, five countries produce 70% of our maize. And this concentration of production is mirrored, if not even accentuated, in international trade. For example, 85% of all soybeans on the international market are exported by only two countries. Surely, we are gambling with our future if we do not improve the agricultural policies that are preventing this sector from taking off in other corners of the globe.

Which takes me straight to Africa; a continent about which we must also ask ourselves some very probing questions. It is 1/7th of the world population, but 1/4th of its under-nourishment! It is also the continent that is experiencing the fastest population growth. Africa is one of the regions of the world with the lowest levels of intra-regional trade in food. When Africa needs food, only 10% of it comes from other African countries, and the rest has to be brought in from elsewhere.

Yet in my opinion, Africa is the “missing part of the food security puzzle”. It is the continent with the greatest amount of arable land left fallow. If Africa is seen as a food security problem today, it may very well hold the key to global food security tomorrow.

So here is the question then, what will we do about Africa? A continent that continues to experience very low yields, much below the global average, for many agricultural commodities. Take maize for instance. The global average is 5 tons per hectare, while the African average is 1.8. There are many reasons for this situation: policies to tax farmers, to split the land, limited access to credit, a wanting infrastructure, and rich world agricultural subsidies, are prime amongst them. In fact there is no business more complicated than agriculture, contrary to popular perception that services and manufacturing are somehow more difficult.

If we want to see progress in our food security, we will have to re-examine the many policies that hold this sector back in parts of the world where sun, water and fertile soils abound.

The Brazilian miracle, ladies and gentlemen, can and should be reproduced. In less than 30 years, Brazil turned itself from a food importer into one of the world’s breadbaskets. In those same 30 years, Africa went from being a net food exporting continent to being a net food importer. But there are success stories in Africa too, on which we must build on. Just last week in Addis Ababa I visited the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and saw how this project, through the greater price transparency that it has brought, is revolutionizing Ethiopian agriculture. Or take Mali’s success story in mangos. With Dutch assistance they overcame the problem of refrigerated transport. The outcome now is that Dutch aid has been progressively replaced

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by Dutch buyers. And while I have focused on Africa, there are other parts of the world too where a change of policies could turn the situation around.

Let me now come to international trade. International trade plays an important role in global food security. By fostering greater competition, trade allows food to be produced where this can be most efficiently done. With the climate crisis, whose beginnings we are now beginning to witness, it will become imperative that we produce food in the right places, and not where we would be wasting scarce water or other natural resources.

As Egyptians like to tell me: if we were to aim for self-sufficiency in food, we would need not one, but many River Niles. And despite what some environmentalists like to say about the “carbon footprint” of international transportation, when the bigger environmental picture is taken into account, it is my firm conviction that trade in food becomes an environmental obligation.

Trade in food, ladies and gentlemen, is also a moral obligation. International trade allows food to move from countries with a surplus to countries with a deficit. It is a “global transmission belt”, if you will. From a purely ethical point of view, it is vital that we allow, and even facilitate, the ability of a country to sell food to another, in particular when that other is suffering from a drought or another natural disaster. Food must travel.

Today, trade in food looks nothing like it did ten years ago. Back then, the world’s top ten exporters of food did not include a single developing country. Today, Brazil is the world’s 5th biggest exporter, and China its 8th. China’s rise has also brought other spectacular changes to the world food market (in fact, to all commodity markets). Upon its entry into the WTO in 2001, China went from being a net exporter of food, to being a net importer. With 20% of the world’s population and rising income, it is not only demanding more food, but also different kinds of foods (meats and horticultural products).

While trade in agricultural products is only 7% of world trade, we are nevertheless dealing with a much more integrated global food market. Two-thirds of all countries in today’s world are net food importers, and only one-third are net exporters. Furthermore, trade in food is more sophisticated today, with about two-thirds of international trade being in processed products.

The bulk of international trade in food, though, remains regional, like the rest of international trade. Seventy per cent of Europe’s trade is with Europe, not just in food, but in all products, and 50% of North America’s and Asia’s trade is intra-regional. Twenty-five per cent in the case of Latin America. Africa, as I said earlier, stands out for its difference in this regard.

BusinessJouRnAl|MARCH2012�3

Agricultural trade has been revolutionized over the years by improved transportation, containerization, and better information technology. Because of the perishable nature of many agricultural products, speed is of the essence, so any improvement affecting the speed of transmission from source to final destination automatically benefits agriculture.

But just as poor policies hold agricultural production back, poor policies are also holding back the necessary revisions of the global rule-book on agricultural trade. In other words, the WTO rule-book, or Bible as some call it. The conclusion of the Agreement on Agriculture in the Uruguay Round in 1994 was a historic event, no doubt. It brought agriculture firmly under the purview of world trade rules. But it was, nevertheless, unfinished business, as evidenced by the rendezvous that countries gave themselves for further negotiations.

Today, high trade-distorting subsidies persist in many developed countries, and so do some extraordinary tariff peaks. This is what led to the

formation of the G-20 coalition of developing, agricultural exporting, countries in the WTO. They want to redress the continued imbalance in WTO rules.

Worse, the problem of food export restrictions finds almost no place in that global rule-book today. Export restrictions, unfortunately, can be none other than “starve-thy-neighbour” policies, bringing importing countries on their knees to plead for food security. In particularly thin international markets, like the rice market, where only 7% of global production gets traded, such restrictions can prove catastrophic. And let us not forget that export restrictions were right at the heart of the 2008 so-called “food price crisis”, with one restriction triggering another through the panic buying and hoarding of food.

Ladies and gentlemen, to sum up: let us get our policy mix right on food production and on trade. We need to ask the difficult questions.

Guyana’s President Mr. Donald Ramotar (left) and Guyana’s Ambassador to the ACP Group and European Union, Dr. P.I. Gomes greet each other during a recent meeting.

Mr. Ramotar, an economist by training became President of the South American country when the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) won the November 2011 general elections.

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The years 2010, 2011 and to date, have presented a global upstream and downstream economic environment that remains volatile and uncertain. Natural disasters and the worldwide financial meltdown continue to wreak havoc on the economic

fortunes of major nations as well as on the predictions of energy experts concerning energy markets.

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has instructed the Company to revisit its business fundamentals.

Petrotrin has responded to the government’s challenge to increase efficiency, eliminate waste and boost oil production. The Company has gone further to reinvent itself in order to hedge against future uncertainties. The Company is seeking to strengthen its business fundamentals in order to function more effectively in current dynamic and volatile global energy scenario.

Reinventing Petrotrin

The Company has also developed a strategy in order to quickly improve its economic outlook. Basically, Petrotrin’s overall strategy focuses on the following core deliverables:

Increasing Equity Crude ProductionImproving Refinery EfficienciesCompleting the Clean Fuels Program Reducing Cost throughout the organization and Improving our HSE Performance

3D Seismic on North Western District

At the moment Petrotrin is faced with the challenge of arresting and turning around its declining crude oil production. We believe that new drilling opportunities abound on our extensive mature land fields. To this end we have just completed an extensive 3D seismic survey on our mature land acreage in the North Western District and have commenced interpretation of the vital data collected in order to guide and refine our land drilling programs.

Apart from the 3D seismic, drilling and workover programmes continue to be the main mechanisms through which Petrotrin seeks to

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increase production in its core fields. Additionally, various other optimization and enhancement initiatives have been implemented throughout the various fields.

Trinmar Forward Drilling Programme

The Trinmar holdings currently comprise the Petrotrin asset with the greatest short term potential for increased production and consequent enhanced indigenous crude supply to the upgraded refinery at Pointe-a-Pierre. A sizeable volume of technical studies already exist on this acreage which posses significant exploration potential.

In March 2011 Petrotrin resumed an aggressive round of drilling activities in Trinmar’s Soldado Fields after a hiatus of almost three years. During the first year of the forward drilling programme, a total of 21 wells were carded to be drilled in Soldado’s North, Main and East Fields. The production from these new wells is expected to yield an increase of 2,000 barrels per day in the first instance.

The Trinmar Forward Drilling Programme is of key strategic importance to Petrotrin and to the country as a whole. Petrotrin is also proud to be

Advertorial

BusinessJouRnAl|MARCH2012��

one of the first upstream operators to return to active offshore drilling after the steep decline in offshore activity of the last few years.

Joint Ventures

Petrotrin continues to use joint venture arrangements to conduct most of its exploration activities. This strategy allows the Company to increase its indigenous crude and gas supply; spread risk and harness the experience, technology and capital resources of other major players in the upstream business.

Gasoline Optimization Project and the Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel Project

At our Pointe-a-Pierre refinery the Clean Fuels Program which comprises the Gasoline Optimisation Project and the Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel Project, is well on its way. The GOP which started 5 years ago will be completed soon while the ULSD project which commenced construction earlier this year will be completed by mid 2012.

Petrotrin’s GOP for its Pointe-a-Pierre Refinery will improve the viability of the refinery and allow the Company to maintain and increase its market share for gasoline oil and gas prices

have improved and Petrotrin is moving quickly to take advantage of market opportunities which are available.

We are also looking forward to the completion of the new Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel Plant which will enable Petrotrin to meet more stringent diesel quality specifications in the local, regional and international markets.

HSE Reviews

HSE reviews and audits continue to be carried out throughout Petrotrin’s operations in order to ensure compliance with statutory HSE obligations. Non-conformances identified are being constantly addressed and rectified.

Cost Reduction Initiatives

The Company continues to improve its management and control systems in order to affect increased efficiencies in its cost performance. There is an emphasis on sharing best practices across divisions in order to identify those processes that increase productivity and reduce cost. Initiatives to improve energy efficiency in the Refinery and in the exploration and production fields have also been implemented.


The United Nations has designated 2012 as the International Year of Cooperatives, providing a great

opportunity to raise the profile of an important organizational tool for spreading human rights and equality worldwide. Membership in co-operative businesses has grown to 1 billion people across 96 countries, according to new research published by the Worldwatch Institute for its Vital Signs Online publication.

Co-operatives, or co-ops, are a type of business characterized by democratic ownership and governance. They offer an alternative to the shareholder model of business ownership. Co-ops are governed by their members, who typically invest in the co-operative and have an ownership stake in it, as well as a voice in how the firm is run. Decisions are often made on a one-member, one-vote basis, so in many societies, co-ops provide a much-needed example of democratic governance amid otherwise inequitable conditions, according to the research.

Unlike more conventional businesses, many co-ops do not struggle financially, because of their emphasis on democratic governance. In 2008, the world’s 300 largest co-ops generated revenues of more than US$1.6 trillion. “Co-operatives are low-profile but powerful economic actors,” said report author Gary Gardner, a Worldwatch Senior Fellow. “If these businesses were a national economy, they would rank ninth in the world----ahead of the economy of Spain.”

Members of co-ops can use their collective power to fight for their common economic, social, or cultural interests: for example, members of a worker co-op might set working-hour limits and wage rates, while members of a financial co-op can access savings, loans, and other financial services that commercial banks might deny them.

“Co-operatives can clearly play a key role in improving the quality of life of their members, particularly in countries where official protections for workers’ or consumers’ rights are not enforced,” said Worldwatch President Robert Engelman.

In industrialized countries, consumer co-ops vastly outnumber other types of co-ops; 92 percent of co-ops in the United States are consumer co-ops. But globally, nearly one-third (29 percent) of the largest 300 co-ops are agricultural. This could mean that farmers in a community share the use of tools and machinery to save on overhead costs, or that they use their collective strength to negotiate higher prices for their goods at market.

In the financial sector, co-op businesses are valuable because they are a major driver of rural development, providing economic opportunities to the poorest sectors of many economies. Some 45 percent of the branches of financial co-ops are located in rural areas, for example, compared with 26 percent of branches of commercial banks. A 2010 World Bank report found that credit union branches account for 23 percent of bank branches worldwide and serve 870 million people, making them the second-largest financial services network in the world.

Further highlights from the study:An estimated 7 percent of Africans belong to a co-operative, and their numbers are growing rapidly. The number of co-ops registered in Uganda, for example, grew 13-fold between 1995 and 2008----from 554 to nearly 7,500. Savings and credit co-operatives in particular are thriving in Africa.Co-ops can generate a meaningful share of economic output: 21 percent in Finland, 17.5 percent in New Zealand, 16.4 percent in Switzerland, and 13 percent in Sweden.

•

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Membership in Co-operative Businesses Reaches 1 Billion

Co-ops offer democratic alternative to shareholder-owned businesses

BusinessJouRnAl|MARCH2012��

Finland tops on information and communication technology

But “digital divide” apparent in lack of data from many developing countries

Finland leads the world in the share of its economy based on the production of goods and services related to information and communication technology (ICT), recent UNCTAD statistics show.

The statistics indicate that ICT in Finland employs almost one tenth of the country’s total non-agricultural business sector.

However, the ICT sector – including the availability of statistics – is still nascent in many developing economies. Currently, the relevant UNCTADStat database contains information on 57 economies. The lack of more comprehensive data can be seen as yet another illustration of the digital divide. In fact, none of the world’s least developed countries (LDCs) reports statistics on the size of its ICT sector.

UNCTAD’s data are sourced principally from national statistical offices, which at the request of developing countries are supported by an UNCTAD technical assistance programme to build domestic capacity for measuring ICTs.

Based on the latest available data, the proportion of ICT-sector employment in the total business sector of economies ranges from less than 2 per cent in Azerbaijan, Croatia and Kazakhstan to more than 8 per cent inFinland, Israel and Sweden.

Such economic activity is significant. As documented in UNCTAD’s Information Economy Report 2011(http://www.unctad.org/ier2011), the ICT sector is playing a growing role in a number of developing countries.

For example, in India, the contribution of the ICT sector to gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 3.4 per cent in 2000/01 to 5.9 per cent in 2007/08. In Kenya, the sector has expanded annually by more than 20 per cent over the past decade and accounted for a staggering 24 per cent of Kenya’s GDP growth during that period.

The health of the ICT sector affects governments, companies, individuals, and society at large. It creates jobs, spurs innovation, and – not least – supports the sustained use of ICTs in domestic economies, which has the effect of making them more productive and efficient. Recent research shows that a thriving ICT sector can make a major contribution to economic growth in low-income countries.

Jobs in ICT have proved to be more productive than those in other sectors. In the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), between 1995 and 2008, labour productivity grew faster in the ICT sector than in the rest of the business sector. The data in chart 1 confirm that the ICT sector’s contribution to domestic economies is typically higher in terms of value added than in terms of employment. However, the ICT sector employs relatively young people with above-average levels of education. Hence, it offers jobs that may provide upward mobility, job security, and future training opportunities.


The Lighter Side...

Tell a lie often enough and people gradually forget the truth. They may not totally believe you, but the lie starts to feel as comfortable as an old pair of slippers. You know you should throw them out, but… later.

In the short term it appears comfortable and altogether more convenient to mask or deny areas of inadequacy, incompetence or failure. We choose instead to act as if all is well and everything is under control. In every aspect of our lives most of us refuse to honestly look at our present position and admit what is happening - or not happening - as the case may be.

A government minister, in a country not too far from here, stated, “We do not have a drug problem in this country.” That was almost five years ago. The situation now clearly indicates that illegal drugs are very much a problem in that land and have been for many years. It was clear to the police, to the media and to everyone in the country.

Two years after that statement, a senior minister in the same government informed the media that the increase in crime is drug related. In fact, the alarming increase in the crime rate has been directly linked to the rise in the illegal drugs trade, which has spawned its own underground economy. This “shadow economy” is believed to be 15 percent of GDP

(some believe this to be a conservative estimate). In the very next sentence this government minister claimed the rapid escalation in the crime rate does not mean the situation is out of control. What?!

In recent times citizens in that land have been told that the measures taken by the present administration are putting a dent in illegal activity because serious crime is on

the decline. However, the figures used were up to the end of 2011. Scores of people (mainly young men) were gunned down in the first two months of 2012, but they did not factor into the statistics. I guess that was convenient. But why did the media not challenge those figures?

We are so keen to peek into the private lives of so-called celebrities, public figures and even our neighbours, but reluctant to peek into statistics, public relations pieces and the chest beating so popular with our politicians, business operators and those who call themselves our leaders. We rarely voice our concerns beyond the lunch room, the hairdresser/barber, the rum shop and the taxi.

Statistics that appear to support a massive turn around are published and speeches are made to ensure that we all know who has “saved” us. With enough spin our heads turn 180 degrees from the real issue; the real problem; the core of the matter; the genesis.

As our focus shifts to savouring the taste of the red herrings, the clouds from the smokescreen could just as easily be tear gas as our eyes stream with water preventing us from seeing what’s actually in front of us. And our throats are so sore that even if we can see what’s happening, our hoarse voices are barely audible.

Not engaging in sensible dialogue about the real issues we begin to forget what those issues are, they lose their urgency and relevance and we take no action to address them. That’s one of the side effects of the medication prescribed and dispensed by the spin doctors.

With a syringe filled with misdirection, the spin doctor gently pushes the needle into the left arm while massaging the right. Ah, it feels so good as the doctor’s relaxing voice insists, “It’s all in your mind; no need to worry your little head; we have it all under control.”

Then there’s the other tactic of trying to convince us that two wrongs add up to one

right. They figure the best way to cover up their wrong doing is deflection. They justify their indiscretions and mistakes by claiming that other companies/administrations or whom-ever had done something similar. How can that possibly make it right?

I was stopped by police for driving under the influence of alcohol. I was well over the limit, but I didn’t crash into anything and no one got killed so what’s the big deal? And let’s not forget, ladies and gentlemen, that the honourable member of parliament for …….. was arrested for driving under the influence on two occasions and I have only been caught once. Therefore he is twice as wrong as I am!

The thing about getting comfortable with dishonesty is, just like that old worn out pair of slippers, you don’t even realise you are wearing them, they offer no support or protection to your feet and may be making you vulnerable to injury. This is no joking matter. I am a serious man.

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communications, Caribbean PR Agency

offers a wealth of knowledge, expertise and experience

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Trinidad and Tobago, W.I.

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Email: [email protected]

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