1

¿Vienen los Chinos?Debates sobre tendencias de la sociedad de la información y el conocimiento - Sevilla, 9 abril 2013

2

¿Vienen los Chinos?

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the presenter and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this presentation.

SICDebates sobre tendencias de la sociedad de la información y el

conocimientoSevilla, 9 de Abril 2013

Marc Bogdanowicz Jean-Paul SimonInstitute for Prospective Technological Studies jps public policy consultingJoint Research Centre - European Commission Paris - Sevillewww.jrc.es / is.jrc.es

3

Tres fuerzas impulsadoras de cambio en Europa :

Globalización => emergencia de nuevas economías

Industria < Servicios

TIC como Tecnología de Ámbito General (GPT)

4Data source: IMF, World Economic Outlook DatabaseAcknowledgement: Alain Stekke

Globalización => emergencia de otras economías

Regional shares in World’s GDP (1980-2012)

5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 1000 1500 1870 1913 1950 1973 1998 2008 20130

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000 A fric a

O ther A s ia

Ind ia

C h ina

Japan

Lat in A m eric a

W es ternO ffs hotsF orm er U S S R

E -E urope

W -E urope

W orld : G D P pc (R hs )

S ourc e : A uthor's c om puta t ion on M addis on (2001) and IM F (2008)

Regional shares in World’s GDP & per capita GDP (0-2012)

Acknowledgement: Andrea de Panizza

Globalización => (re)emergencia de Asia

6

Globalización => (re)emergencia de … China

Bienvenido,Mister Marshall, 1953

Quand la Chine s'éveillera, le monde tremblera. Napoléon, 1816

Blade Runner, 1982

Les Chinois a Paris, 1974

8

China: El pais mas poblado, y pronto, el mayor GDP 2012 (est.) M US Dollars

World 71,620,000k European Union 16,190,000

1 United States 15,650,0002 China 8,250,0003 Japan 5,984,0004 Germany 3,367,0005 France 2,580,000

6 United Kingdom 2,434,000

7 Brazil 2,425,0008 Italy 1,980,0009 Russia 1,954,000

10 India 1,947,00011 Canada 1,770,00012 Australia 1,542,00013 Spain 1,340,000

Source: IMF, CIA factbook

Rank US dolllars/y6 USA 48,328

28 Spain 30,47893 China 8,387

9

China / USA

10

China / AlemaniaUn Aleman …- spends 16 times more money on health care. Per capita public and private health expenditures combined in Germany are $3,465 USD while China spends $216 USD- consumes 5.2 times more oil. Germany consumes 1.3113 gallons of oil per day per capita while China consumes 0.2526- makes 5.2 times more money. The GDP per capita in Germany is $34,100 while in China it is $6,600- uses 2.6 times more electricity. The per capita consumption of electricity in Germany is 6,651kWh while in China it is 2,585kWh.- has 90.7% more chance of being unemployed. Germany has an unemployment rate of 8.20% while China has 4.30%- has 76.08% less chance of dying in infancy. The number of deaths of infants under one year old in a given year per 1,000 live births in Germany is 3.95 while in China it is 16.51.- experiences 34.94% less of a class divide. The GINI index measures the degree of inequality in the distribution of family income. In Germany is 27.00 while in China it is 41.50.- has 32.54% less babies. The annual number of births per 1,000 people in Germanyis 8.21 while in China it is 12.17.- live 4.9 years longer Source: http://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/CN/DE

11

China: LA industria manufacturera del mundo

12

China: un papel esencial en el comercio mundial

13

…Incluido en el hi-tech…

14

Pero también un país con retos inmensos…

Costes energéticos

Acceso a materias primas

Desacuerdos comerciales

Polución y salud publica

Encarecimiento de los sueldos

Y mas….

15

Urbanización…Chongqing (28.84 million)Shanghai (23.01 million)Beijing (19.61 million)Tianjin (12.93 million)Chengdu (14.04 million)Guangzhou (12.70 million)Harbin (10.63 million)Shenzhen (10.35 million)Wuhan (9.78 million)Qingdao (8.71 million)Hangzhou (8.70 million)Xi’an (8.46 million)Shenyang (8.10 million)Nanjing (8 million)Changchun (7.67 million)Ningbo (7.60 million)Jinan (6.81 million)Dalian (6.69 million)Xiamen (3.53 million)….

Share of Urban population 1970-2010

16

Disparidades (típicas del crecimiento)…

…entre regiones, zonas rurales y urbanas, estilos de vida

17

Envejecimiento y problemas con el systema de educación…

Expectaciones de la nueva generación…

19

¿Pues… Europeos, que es lo que nos da miedo?

20

Tres preguntas – Múltiples respuestas…

¿ Como resolverán los Chinos su situación ?

¿ Nos cambiara la vida ?

¿ Cuál es nuestro papel en el proceso ?

21

No os perdéis:1. The World innovation landscape: Asia rising? R, Veugelers BURUEGEL, 2013

2. Structural change in China, P.Ehmer, Deutsche Bank Research3. The ICT Landscape in BRICS Countries: China, JP Simon, IPTS

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the presenter and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this presentation.

SICDebates sobre tendencias de la sociedad de la información y el

conocimientoSevilla, 9 abril 2013

And…grateful acknowledgement to the following references:CIA, CISCO, IMF, IPTS, jps public policy consulting SERI, United Nations, Wikipedia, World Bank, etc.

22

II. Ilustración con las Industrias TIC