mapping the future: technology, people and rural prosperity...2008 trends medium2 2006-2008 trends...
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Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Mapping the Future:Technology, People and Rural Prosperity
2014 Economic Revitalization ConferenceMonieson Centre, Queen’s University
April 8, 2014
Ray D. Bollman
[email protected] Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of [email protected] 1
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada4. What happened to the promise of telework?5. One vision for Eastern Ontario
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage
• In 2015, Canada will have fewer potential labour market entrants per potential retiree
• A potential labour market shortage• To quote Red Green
• “We’re all in this together, I’m pullin’ ferya.”
• Nunavut is the [email protected] 3
0
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100
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1971
1973
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2009
2011
2011
2013
2015
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2019
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2025
2027
2029
2031
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2035
Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percentof potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)
Historical data
L: Low growth
Medium1 1981-2008 trendsMedium2 2006-2008 trendsMedium3 1988-1996 trendsMedium4 2001-2006 trendsHigh growth
A1 replacementfertilityA2 zeroimmigrationA3 1%immigration
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.
Labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) from 2010 to 2025due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants
per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, Canada
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percentof potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)
Historical data
L: Low growth
Medium1 1981-2008 trendsMedium2 2006-2008 trendsMedium3 1988-1996 trendsMedium4 2001-2006 trendsHigh growth
A1 replacementfertilityA2 zeroimmigrationA3 1%immigration
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.
Labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) from 2010 to 2025due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants
per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, Canada
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends
• The number employed has recovered from the 2009 downturn
• But the employment rate (% of population that is employed) has not recovered
150
175
200
225
250
198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Number employed (,000)(12-month moving average)
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
Number employed in Ontario'sKingston - Pembroke Economic Region
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Number employed (,000)(12-month moving average)
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
Number employed in Ontario'sOttawa (and area) Economic Region
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
12-month moving averageMonthly data
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
Employment rate: Percent of the population, 15 years and over, that is employed
Employment rate:Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014
12-month moving average
Monthly data
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
Employment rate: Percent of the population, 15 years and over, that is employed
Employment rate:Ottawa (and area) Economic Region
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada
Technology in rural Canada• Some arithmetic
Value of economic production
i.e. Value-added
i.e. Gross domestic product
is equal to the value added to intermediate products by capital
(machinery, equipment, buildings) and by labour
GDP = K + L
GDP / L = K / L
GDP / worker (i.e. labour productivity)
is (perhaps obviously) higher with more K / L
(i.e. more capital per worker)
Technology in rural Canada
GDP / worker (i.e. labour productivity)
is (perhaps obviously) higher with more K / L
(i.e. more capital per worker)
• Technology (almost always) arrives in the form of K (i.e. a capital investment)
• More technology (almost always) improves worker productivity
• Note: do not tax K - - maybe tax the capitalists but do not tax the capital
• And - - - there will be winners and losers in each place where new technology arrives
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada
• Distance-reducing technology• i.e. a technology that reduces the price of
distance
• Recall: Rural retail before the post office• Then a distance-reducing technology came
along - - - the postal system• Then the Eaton’s catalogue put some rural
retailers out of business• But many local consumers were happier
• And what is now putting Canada Post out of business - - - another distance-reducing technology - - - the Internet
• Recall: Rural retail with dirt roads• Every mainstreet business wanted a gravel
road into their town• Then every mainstreet business wanted a
paved road into their town• Then, mainstreet businesses discovered
that one could drive on both sides of a paved road and town residents could drive to the regional centre to shop
• And many local consumers were happier
• Recall: Rural travel agents before the Internet
• Provided a fantastic service• Then came the Internet• Every rural traveller could make his/her own
bookings• Most mainstreet travel agents went out of
business• And many local consumers were happier
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada
• Note two themes:• With each new technology, there were
winners and losers• Most local consumers were happier.
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada
4. What happened to the promise of telework?• Remember the promise that the Internet would
let one work anywhere & live where one wanteda. How many couples have both spouses that i) could and
ii) would want to “live rural”?b. My telework experience:
• Good news – no meetings• Bad news – no meetings – did not know what was going on• Good news – I did not want to know what was going on• BUT – no new networks >> no chance of promotion
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada4. What happened to the promise of telework?5. One vision for Eastern Ontario
• An academy in each rural town that will bring in high school students and considerable tuition $$$ / student
• Some examples . . . [email protected] 20
• Oyen, Alberta• 2011 population = 973
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada4. What happened to the promise of telework?5. One vision for Eastern Ontario
• A sports academy in each rural town• Baseball• Curling
• A language academy in each rural [email protected] 25
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada4. What happened to the promise of telework?5. One vision for Eastern Ontario
• An academy in each rural town• i.e. find a service to export
Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology
Mapping the Future:Technology, People and Rural Prosperity
2014 Economic Revitalization ConferenceMonieson Centre, Queen’s University
April 8, 2014
Ray D. Bollman
[email protected] Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of [email protected] 27
Questions / Discussion