Manure Happens: The Consequences of Feeding Seven Billion Human Omnivores

Eric A. DavidsonJuly 25, 2017

Fifth International Conference on Nitrification and Related Processes

Fowler et al. 2013 The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century. Phil Trans R Soc B 368: 20130164

NATURE|Vol 461|24 September 2009“Editor’s note Please note that this Feature and the Commentaries are not peer-reviewed research. This Feature, the full paper and the expert Commentaries can all be accessed from http://tinyurl.com/planetboundaries.”

Updated by Steffen et al. 2015. Science

Consumed Animal

Products

N inputs:synthetic N fertilizers

manure

& natural N fixation

Consumed Crops

Crop production

Groundwater & surface waters

NH4+ NO3

- DON Npart

NH3 N2O NOX N2

NH4+ NO3

- DON Npart

NH3 N2O NOX N2

Atmosphere

feed

Agriculture

14%

4%Animal production

Nitrogen: A Very Leaky Element

Oenema et al. 2009. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 133, 280-288.

6.5 Tg N 4.8 Tg N

24.7 Tg N

23.3 Tg N13.7 Tg N

Unknown20 – 40%

N2

3 – 23%Fates of intentional N fixation in the U.S. for 2007. C-BNF = crop biological N fixation; H-B= Haber-Bosch.

Alteration of N Flows in the U.S.

• Intentional Nr creation accounts for 2/3rds of total N2 fixation in the U.S.

• Nearly 2/3rds of unintentional Nr is from vehicle use, while a majority of the remainder is from stationary power plants and industrial boilers.

• About 3/4ths of intentional Nr enters US agricultural systems. Synthetic fertilizer comprises 2/3rds of Nr input to U.S. agriculture, with the remainder originating from C-BNF. Industrial products like nylon and explosives account for the remaining 25% of intentionally fixed Nr in the U.S.

• About 1/3rd of total Nr is incorporated into products, about 1/3rd is lost as Nr to the broader environment, about 1/3rd is denitrified or lost to unknown sinks.

• Nitrogen use efficiency is about 38% for agriculture and about 55% for all intentional Nr.

From chapter by Benjamin Z. Houlton, Elizabeth Boyer, Adrien Finzi, James Galloway, Allison Leach, Daniel Liptzin, Jerry Melillo, Todd S. Rosenstock, Dan Sobota, and Alan R. TownsendBiogeochemistry (2013) 114:11-23

Eshleman et al. 2013. Surface water quality is improving dueto declining atmospheric N deposition. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47, 12193e12200.

“These unanticipated region-wide water quality benefits can be attributedto NOx emission controls brought about by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (and subsequent U.S. NOX control programs) and reflect a water quality “success story” in the Chesapeake Bay restoration” : Eshleman et al. 2016. Atmospheric Environment (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.07.004

Mo Fo; Lo Po

• Eutrophication of estuaries; dead zones; harmful algal blooms

• Nitrate in drinking water• NOx, O3, and PM2.5 air pollution• N2O as greenhouse gas & stratospheric

ozone reactant• Acid rain & biodiversity loss

The Haber-Bosch process is one of the greatest public health boons in human history

Drinking Water Nitrate

• U.S. standard of 10 ppm• In place because of

methylglobinemia

• The need for maintaining the standard is a matter of recent controversy

Methemoglobinemia“blue baby syndrome”

Davidson et al. 2012. Issues in Ecology, Report Number 15, Ecological Society of America.

WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer expert working group: “ingested nitrate or

nitrite under conditions that result in endogenous nitrosation is probably carcinogenic to humans”

NOCs are potent carcinogens and teratogens in animals including non-human primates.

Davidson et al. 2016. J. Environ. Studies Science

?

Davidson et al. 2016. J. Environ. Studies Science

Soil Nitrogen

Agricultural BNF

Fertilizer

Leaching/runoff (e.g., NH4

+,NO3-, DON,PON)

Volatilization/emission (e.g., NH3, NO, N2O, N2)

Cropproducts

Deposition

Manure

NUE = Crop products/Inputs

Nsurplus = Inputs - Crop product

Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59

Mining soil nitrogen0

Hypothetical limit to efficiency

Income level

N su

rplu

s

a

Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59

The Environmental Kuznets Curve

a

Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59

France

USA

N surplus follows the EKC model for western Europe and North America

𝑵𝑵𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔 = 𝑵𝑵𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚𝒚(𝟏𝟏

𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵𝑵− 𝟏𝟏)

NUE = Nyield/Inputs

Nsur = Inputs - Nyield

Soil NitrogenAgricultural BNF

Fertilizer

Leaching/runoff (e.g., NH4

+,NO3-, DON,PON)

Volatilization/emission (e.g., NH3, NO, N2O, N2)

Cropproducts

Deposition

Manure

Tunneling through EKC

Nsur (kg ha-1 yr-1)

Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59

Zhang et al. 2015. Nature 528:51-59

Strong fertilizer subsidies have kept the fertilizer/crop price ratios low in China and India, which discourages NUE

Linda ProkopyPurdue Univ.

Davidson et al. 2015. JEQ 44:305–311

Applying the Right Source at the Right Rate at the Right Time and in the Right Place, where Right is defined by practice impact on system performance

Paul Fixen

SourceSlow-release fertilizerNitrification inhibitorBalanced nutrients

RateSoil testingOn-line toolsCrop sensors

PlaceTimeSpring vs. fallSide dressing during

growing season

Project SENSESensors for Efficient Nitrogen Use and Stewardship of the Environment

A research/educational project of the Nebraska Corn Board, the Central Platte, Little Blue, Lower Loup, Lower Platte North and Upper Big Blue Natural Resources Districts, USDA-NIFA, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln On-Farm Research Network

Richard Ferguson; Univ. Nebraska

Project SENSE Means Grower SENSEFertilizer N (lb/acre) 192 150Yield (bu/acre) 226 221PFPN (lb grain/lb N) 68 87

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Reference MapReference Map

Central Platte Natural Resources DistrictGroundwater Quality Management ProgramCentral Platte Natural Resources District

Groundwater Quality Management Program

0 - 7.5 ppm#

7.5 - 15 ppm#

Over 15 ppm#

Nitrate Levels (ppm)Phase I

Phase II

Phase III

Management Areas

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Reference MapReference Map

Central Platte Natural Resources DistrictGroundwater Quality Management ProgramCentral Platte Natural Resources District

Groundwater Quality Management Program

0 - 7.5 ppm#

7.5 - 15 ppm#

Over 15 ppm#

Nitrate Levels (ppm)

Phase I

Phase II

Phase III

Management Areas N

EW

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Island

Central City

Clarks

ibory

Silver Creek

Chapman

ArcherMERRICK

POLK

NANCE

HAMILTON

PLATTE

(/3 4

28 1

(/30

(/30

(/92 (/92

(/14

(/30

(/14

(/66

(/30

(/14

(/30

(/9 2

(/39

(/30

(/3 9

(/30

CH ER R Y

HO LT

SIO U X

CU ST E R

LIN C OL N

SH ER ID AN

GA RD E N

KN OX

KE ITH

DA WES

RO CK

MO R RIL L

BR OWN

GA GE

CH AS E

DU ND Y

KIM B AL L

GR AN T

DA WSO N HA LL

CL AY

OT OE

CH EY E NN E

CE DA R

BU FF AL O

HA YE S

LO UP

CA SS

YO RKPE RK IN S

BL AIN E

BO YD

FR ON T IER

BO X BU TT E

BO ON E

BU RT

PL AT TE

BA NN E R

FU RN A S

AR TH U R

TH OM A SHO O KE R

PO LK

LO GA N

SA LIN E

AN TE LO P E

AD AM S

PIE R CE

VA LL EY

DIX O N

BU TL ER

DO DG E

TH AY ER

CU M ING

HA RL AN

LA NC AS T ER

PH EL PS

KE YA P AH A

SA UN D ER S

DE UE L

MC PH E RS O N

SE WAR D

NA NC E

HO WAR D

MA DI SO N

GR EE L EY

HIT C HC O CK

WA Y NE

FR AN K LIN

FIL LM O RE

WH E EL ER

WE B ST ER

SH ER M AN

GA RF IE LD

RE D WILL OW

KE AR N EYGO SP E R

ME RR IC K

NU CK O LL S

HA MI LT ON

CO LF AX

SC OT T S B LU F F

PA WNE EJE FF ER SO N

NE MA H A

ST AN TO N

RIC H AR D SO N

JO HN S ON

SA RP Y

TH UR S TO N

DO UG L AS

DA KO T A

WA S HIN G TO N

LOWER L OUP

UPPER LOU PNORTH PLA TTE

TWI N P LATTE

NEMA HA

UPPER NI OBR ARA WH ITEMID DLE NIO BRAR A

LOWER E LKHO RN

CENTRA L PLA TTE

LITTLE BLUEMID DLE REPU BLIC AN

UPPER ELKH ORN

SOUTH PLAT TE

UPPER BI G BLUE

TRI BASI N

LOWER N IO BRAR A

UPP ER REPUB LICA N

LOWER R EPUB LICA N

LO WER BIG BLU E

LEWI S AND CLARK

PAPIO -MIS SOUR I RIV ER

LOWER P LATTE SOUTH

LOWER P LATTE N ORTH

Reference MapReference Map

Central Platte Natural Resources DistrictGroundwater Quality Management ProgramCentral Platte Natural Resources District

Groundwater Quality Management Program

0 - 7.5 ppm#

7.5 - 15 ppm#

Over 15 ppm#

Nitrate Levels (ppm)Phase I

Phase II

Phase III

Management Areas ● 0 – 7.5 ppm

● 7.5 – 12 ppm

● > 12 ppm

Availability of the database has allowed both research and education to be targeted to soil/aquifer/cropping systems which are more challenging to manage.

LOWER LOUP

UPPER LOUPNORTH PLATTE

TWIN PLATTE

NEMAHA

UPPER NIOBRARA WHITEMIDDLE NIOBRARA

LOWER ELKHORN

LITTLE BLUE

CENTRAL PLATTE

MIDDLE REPUBLICAN

UPPER ELKHORN

SOUTH PLATTE

UPPER BIG BLUE

TRI BASIN

LOWER NIOBRARA

LOWER REPUBLICAN

LEWIS & CLARK

UPPER REPUBLICAN

LOWER BIG BLUE

PAPIO-MISSOURI RIVER

LOWER PLATTE SOUTH

LOWER PLATTE NORTH

Central Platte Natural Resources District –Groundwater Management Area (GWMA)

Richard Ferguson; Univ. Nebraska

Trends in the Central Platte Valley

Average of values from producer reports in GWMA, representing ~ 300,000 acres

y = -0.1523x + 321.41R² = 0.824

y = -2.1092x + 4289.4R² = 0.6312

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Soil

Resi

dual

NO

3-N

(lb/

acre

)

Gro

undw

ater

NO

3-N

(ppm

)

Richard Ferguson; Univ. Nebraska

Initial Goal of African Green RevolutionMoving from 1 to 3 tons per hectare

0 N added = 1 ton/ha maize60-70% of water lost throughevaporation

50 kg N ha-1 = 3 tons/ha maize30 -40% of water lost throughevaporation

Cheryl Palm & Pedro Sanchez, Columbia University

Hickman et al. 2015. JGR-B

Increasing consumption of animal protein

Westhoek et al. (2011) “The Protein Puzzle”Reay et al. (2011) European Nitrogen Assessment

Per capita meat consumption has started to decline in the USA, especially beef consumption.http://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/

Personal N footprints2

Calculate your nitrogen footprint at:

www.N-Print.org Allison LeachUniversity of New Hampshire

red meat

diary products

cereals/carbs

fruits/vegetables

chicken/fish/eggs

other misc.

beverages

oils/sweets/condiments

Total greenhouse gas emissions by supply chain tier associated with household food consumption in the U.S.

Climate impact (metric tons CO₂e/household-yr)

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

transport

production

wholesale/retail

“The Problem of What to Eat” Conservation. Natasha Loder, Elizabeth Finkel,Craig Meisner, and Pamela Ronald. July-September 2008 9(3):31 Jason Clay

SVP Markets, WWF-U

Take-home messages

Sustainable intensification can improve NUE, increase crop yields, and reduce N pollution, and

Technological advances will be helpful and a lot can be done with existing technology, but

Social and economic impediments remain, therefore

MoFoLoPo will require integration among agronomy, social sciences, and other disciplines and cooperation across sectors and stakeholder groups, and

Personal dietary choices matter

Thank you for your attentionBon appétit!