manufacturing’s job crisis
DESCRIPTION
Manufacturing’s job crisis. Productivity, demand, and trade. Productivity. Demand. Trade deficit in manufactures. An accounting framework. 1998-2003. 2000-2003. 2001-2003. A closer look: durable vs. non-durables. Contributions to job-loss: 1998-2003. Contributions to job-loss: 2000-2003. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Manufacturing’s job crisisManufacturing’s job crisisManufacturing employment (in thousands)
1950
14,013
2003
14,525
1998
17,560
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
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Productivity, demand, and tradeProductivity, demand, and trade
"The share of consumer spending devoted to manufactured goods has declined over time both in the United States and in other industrialized nations. As consumers' income has risen, they have increased their purchases of good but boosted their spending on services - including medical care, notably, - even more. In 2000, 42 percent of U.S. consumer spending was devoted to goods, down from 52 percent in 1979 and 67 percent in 1950." (CBO 2004).
"Most [manufacturing jobs] by far were eliminated because companies used new technologies, management techniques, and other methods to achieve huge gains in productivity... And the jobs lost to productivity gains will not come back, regardless of what policymakers do in Washington." John Berry (2003)
"The loss of jobs over the past three years is attributable largely to rapid declines in the demand for industrial goods and to outsized gains in productivity that have caused effective supply to outstrip demand. Protectionism will do little to create jobs; and if foreigners retaliate, we will surely lose jobs." (Alan Greenspan 2004)
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ProductivityProductivityProductivity growth rates, manufacturing vs. non- farm business
sector
3.52%
4.29%4.44%
2.23%
3.00%
3.74%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
1987-2003 1997-2003 2001-2003
manuf actur ing non-f ar m business
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DemandDemandTrade-adjusted share of manufacturing in total domestic
demand
2003
20.5%1998
19.7%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
tr ade-adjusted manuf actur ing shar e
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Ratio of domestic manufacturing output to demand
1997
89.2%
2003
76.5%
1991
94.2%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
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Trade deficit in manufacturesTrade deficit in manufactures Manuf actur ing as a share of total demand: domestic output plus net impor ts
domestic output
net imports
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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An accounting frameworkAn accounting frameworkA familiar identity in economics relates employment, output, and productivity. (1) yLY This identity is updated to reflect the fact that domestic output is not always and everywhere equivalent to demand: (2) yLdYd
Expressing (2) in rates of change and re-arranging terms yields:
(3) dyYL dˆˆˆˆ
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1998-20031998-2003Figure 4: Contributions to manufacturing employment change,
1998 - 2003
Net impor ts
-58.5%
Domestic f actor s
(demand + pr oductivi ty)
-41.5%
Demand
+70.1%
P r oductivi ty
-111.5%
-160%
-110%
-60%
-10%
40%
90%
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2000-20032000-2003Contributions to manufacturing employment, 2000-2003
Net impor ts
-34.2%
Domestic f actor s
(demand + pr oductivi ty)
-65.8%
Demand
+5.7%
P r oductivi ty
-71.6%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
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2001-20032001-2003Contributions to manufacturing employment, 2001-2003
Net impor ts
-42.2%
Domestic f actor s
(demand + pr oductivi ty)
-56.8%
Demand
+40.3%
P r oductivi ty
-97.1%
-140%
-90%
-40%
10%
60%
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A closer look: durable vs. non-A closer look: durable vs. non-durablesdurables
Durable and non-durable manufacturing employment
2004
8,882
1998
10,943
2004
5,428
1998
6,694
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
dur able non_dur able
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Contributions to job-loss: 1998-2003Contributions to job-loss: 1998-2003
Contributions of domestic factors and net imports to job-loss, 1998-2003
44.9%
25.9%
55.1%
74.1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
durable nd
domestic factors net imports
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Contributions to job-loss: 2000-2003Contributions to job-loss: 2000-2003
Contributions of domestic factors and net imports to job-loss, 2000-2003
70.0%
48.3%
30.0%
51.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
durable nd
domestic factors net imports
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Contributions to job-loss: 2001-2003Contributions to job-loss: 2001-2003
Contributions of domestic factors and net imports to jo-loss, 2001-2003
63.8%
27.2%
36.2%
72.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
durable nd
domestic factors net imports
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Productivity growth: durables vs. Productivity growth: durables vs. non-durablesnon-durables
23.3%
16.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
dur ables non_dur ables
Productivity growth, 1998-2003, durables vs. non_durables
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Productivity: Durables – NAICS Productivity: Durables – NAICS 3341 and 33443341 and 3344
23.3%
16.7%
10.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
dur ables non_dur ables dur ables - hi tek
Productivity including: (durables - NAICS 3341 & 3344)
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Manufactures trade deficit + Value Manufactures trade deficit + Value of the dollarof the dollar
Value of the dollar and the manufacturing trade deficit
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003*
*Estimate.
Trad
e de
ficit
shar
e of
GDP
(%
)
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
Real
$ In
dex
Dollar Value (right)
Manufactures Trade Deficit (left)
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Real, broad $ index: Time to Real, broad $ index: Time to breathe easy?breathe easy?
Real, broad trade-weighted dollar index
March 2004
100.42
Feb 2002
113.75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
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Broad, major vs. OTIP indicesBroad, major vs. OTIP indicesMovement in dollar indices since February 2002
-11.7%
-21.5%
2.1%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Broad Major OTIP
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Top 6 Deficit trading partnersTop 6 Deficit trading partnersLargest Bilateral Trade Deficits
China 23.1%Japan 12.3%Canada 10.2%Mexico 7.6%Malaysia 2.7%Taiwan 2.6%Euro Area 14.1%
Sum 72.6%
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Deficit-weighted exchange rate Deficit-weighted exchange rate changechange
Dollar indices plus trade-deficit weighted index
-11.7%
-21.5%
2.1%
3.4%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Broad Major OTIP td_weighted
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Policy optionsPolicy options
1) Dollar policy: continue negotiations with 1) Dollar policy: continue negotiations with countries that peg their currency for countries that peg their currency for competitive advantagecompetitive advantage
2) Legacy cost relief for retiree health and 2) Legacy cost relief for retiree health and pension benefitspension benefits
3) Health care, as always 3) Health care, as always