manpower models and techniques

8/4/2019 Manpower Models and Techniques

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MANPOWER PLANNING MODELSAND TECHNIQUES

Don R. Bryant, Michael J. Maggard, Robert P. Taylor

Miloni SanghrajkaNeha Mendon

Afiya Khan


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Flow of the Presentation

Factors giving rise to Manpower Planning

Techniques used for Manpower Planning Judgmental Techniques

Quantitative Techniques

Computer Simulation

Manpower Planning Process in VariousCompanies


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What is HRP?

HRP involves getting the right number ofqualified people into the right jobs at the right

time


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Factors Giving Rise to ManpowerPlanning

Rate of Technological Change

Increasing Cost of Managing HumanResources

Resource as important as Capital


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Types of Techniques

TYPES

JUDGEMENTAL

QUANTITATIVE

COMPUTERSIMULATION


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Judgmental Techniques

Estimates, Rulesand Charts

Delphi Technique


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Supervisor Estimates

One of the oldest and most used

The technique uses: Intuition and Experience of the man closest to the job

Short Run Forecasts


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Pros and Cons

Simple

Quick Can produce results

in the absence of

adequate data

Heavily Based on

Opinion Costly Executive

Time

Accuracy may notbe maintained

Advantages Disadvantages


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Rule of Thumb Technique

Decision Heuristics

One New Hire For Every $60,000 Increasein Sales


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Pros and Cons

Simple Designed to

Maintain Status Quo May not represent

future requirements



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Replacement Chart

Graphic Device to ensure that suitablereplacements are ready to move into vacatedpositions

Make use of data like age, performance levels,

promotability and degree of readiness


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Pros and Cons

Graphical

Representation

Constructing a Chart

may require a greatdeal of labour

Does not provide adynamic picture



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Example of Replacement Chart

But as per Rothwell &Associates Inc, replacement

charts encourage promotions onlyin silos of specialization. Instead

talent pools should be used.

Talent pools may be identified underneath

each level on the organization chart butare not tied to specific positions at the next


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Delphi Technique

Obtains and refines group judgments throughuse of questionnaires

The results are processed and are used

On basis of these results, manpower

forecasting is done


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rocess o e pTechniqueLeader identifies judgment issues and develops questionnaire.

Prospective participants are identified and asked to cooperate.

Leaders send questionnaire to willing participants, who recordtheir judgments and recommendations and return thequestionnaire.

Leaders compiles summaries and reproduces participants

responses.

Leader sends the compiled list of judgment to all participants.

Participants comment on each others ideas and propose a finaljudgment.

Leader looksfor consensus

Leader accepts consensus judgment as groups choice.


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Pros and Cons

Use of Anonymous

Responses Reduction of

IrrelevantCommunication

Individual Panelists Consideroverlooked factors

Interests decline

after a few trials Time Consuming

Problems in

IntegratedCommunication

Costly



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Matrix Models

ExecutivePlanning

Development

ManagementManpower

Planning Matrix


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Matrix Model for ExecutivePlanning Development

Makes uses of sophisticated database

Composed of 5 Matrices

Job Analysis of each position Matrix provides an overview needed for job under consideration

Talent TaskRelationship

Adjusting Personnel Training, Testing Changing the Job Fit to available talents

Man JobRelationship

Determine talent requirements for enterprise as a whole Summary Picture of the tasks to be performed and talents needed

to perform themTalent TaskComposition of the

Enterprise

Analysis of present and anticipated personnel requirements

Forecasts based on growth and change in the organization itself Evaluates the future potentials of present executives

Executive

PersonnelRequirements

Depicts the training that is needed for Executive DevelopmentTalent Flows


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Management Manpower PlanningMatrix

Developed by Mason Haire

Representation of the characteristics of

personnel flow on one axis and the factors inthe organization which may affect personnelflows from the other (Training, Recruitment,

Pay and Promotion)


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5 Types of Moves in theOrganization

People Moveinto the System

from Outside

People Moveout of theSystem

People MayMove Up

People MayMove Over

People MayChange theirBehavior and

Potential

Primary Purpose : Aid Management in determiningthe probabilities of varying types of personnel

movement


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Process

Analyze the portfolio of management policies for influencing rates anddirection of personnel flows

Assign subjective probabilities to the flow of personnel to fill projected jobs

Past Experience and Managerial Judgment (Move to other jobs within the systemor moving out of the system)

Project how many, what kind of and at what levels are the people needed


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Chief Advantage: Aid in providing logic tocomprehend the relationship among variables

Present Data in Readable Form


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Types of Techniques

TYPES

JUDGEMENTAL

QUANTITATIVE

COMPUTERSIMULATION


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Statistical Methods

Time Series Method:Project Past Trends into the Future


ForcesForecaster to

considerunderlying trend

Large LaborForce

Takes intoaccountcontinuing

patterns by pastmanpower data

Assumption thatfuture will becontinuation of

the past

Stochastic Statistical Analysis:attempts to account for theuncertainty of future events


Series ofUncertain events

can be accountedthrough thedecision tree

Need forHistorical Data


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Operations Research Methods

Goal ProgrammingModel: Set of goals

specified subject to aset of constraints

Advantage

s

Dis-

advantagesHandlesmultiplegoals inmultipledimensions

Losesaccuracywhen used inshort timehorizons

Providesguideline incase ofhire firedecisions

Assumeslinear fnswhenquadraticwould be

moreeffective

Sheridans navalShore Activity: used to

calculate least costlabor mix to satisfy o/p

requirements

Advantages

Dis-advantages

If desiredoutput ofthe orgtn at

some futurept. is knownthen leastcost labormix can becalculated

Arise fromtherequireme

nts theyimpose

Minimum Risk manpowerscheduling: forecastoptimum levels of fulltime employment in

which total work loadsare not known

Advantages Dis-advantages

Flexibility offorecastingover a period

of timecoveringseveralpossibletransitionpoints

Cost of DataCollectionand

Computation time bothare high


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Types of Techniques

TYPES

JUDGEMENTAL

QUANTITATIVE

COMPUTERSIMULATION


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Computer Simulation

Useful in Manpower Forecasting when used to determine the effects ofvariations in policies, availability of personnel, and the utilization ofpersonnel.

PERSYM an entitymodel designed for

military use.Simulated population

is introduced andmaintained in the formof individual records of

individual people. Can be used as

basis for forecastingpersonnel

requirements

ARMYs RESERVE

Manpower Model:Produces annual

projections for a tenyear period of ArmyReserve manpowerstrength, gains and

losses.

Weber Model:Consists large

number of tasks,objectives and

interrelationshipsAdvantage overother techniqueswhich look at one

variable or functionat a time. Whileholding others

constant.


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INDUSTRY EXAMPLES

Ill t ti 1


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Illustration 1:European Air Traffic Management

Operational task managed by Air TrafficControllers (ATC)

Challenges for MP

Shortageof ATCs

Cost andtimetaken

Changingtasks and

roles

Increasing stress

Strategic perspective of Manpower


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Strategic

ManpowerPlanning

Overallstrategic ATM

plan

HRM

Strategic perspective of ManpowerPlanning (MP)


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Manpower Planning Model

TrafficDeman

d

No. ofATCs

required

ATC surplusor shortage

Inflow (traineeATC)

ATC available

Other Demands(training, specialprojects, leaveand absences)

Outflow(retirements,transfers etc)

No. of ATCto recruit


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Component of ATC MP methodology

EstimatingATC manningrequirement

ATCavailable

Estimating ATC manning


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1. Analyzing Air traffic demand

Historic data

Statistics

2. Estimating the Number of ATCs Required

Estimating ATC manningrequirement


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Estimating the number of ATCs available, at anygiven time in the future, requires an understandingof the inflows, throughflows and outflowsaffectingthe pool of ATCs available i.e.:

projected number ofcurrent ATCs available to manpositions plus the ab initios in trainingwho are expected to

succeed

less the number of ATCs expected to retire less the expected number of ATCs who havetransferred out of operational positions

less the expected number of ATCs who may haveresigned, etc

ATC available

Illustration 2


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Illustration 2.MANPOWER PLANNING PROCEDURE INONGC

CORPORATE LEVEL GOAL

CORPORATE PLAN

IDENTIFICATION OF WORKLOAD

ANALYSIS BY HR

CRITICAL REVIEW & ESTIMATION

SCRUTINY BY KEY EXECUTIVE

CHAIRMAN & MDS APPROVAL

ISSUANCE OF SANCTION ORDER BY HR

ACTION FOR RECRUITMENT


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Illustration 3: Unilever

Annual Planning replaced by quarterlyforecasting

Forecasting outsourced to AccentureAccenture (Sends cognos report on historic activity)

Unilever Global Resourcing Manager (Send forecasting templates toHRBP)

HRBP (Discuss with managers & check succession plan)

Unilever Global Resourcing Manager (Consolidated global forecast)

Accenture (Check forecast against actual figures)


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Thank You

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