Managing the global ocean as a system: role of

the high seas

U. Rashid Sumaila Fisheries Economics Research Unit

Sea Around Us projectFisheries Centre, University of British Columbia

Vancouver, Canadar.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca

Conference in Honour of Ivar Ekeland, June 18-20, 2014

Ivar and Me

• We can communicate in Norwegian:– The story of how we met Ivar.

• We both love the ocean and fish:– Norse, Ekeland, Sumaila & others (2012). Sustainability of

deep sea fisheries. Marine Policy, 36, 307–320.

• We believe we need to find better ways to discount the future:– Ekeland, Karp, and Sumaila (forthcoming). Equilibrium

resource management with altruistic overlapping generations. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

Outline of talk

• Our oceans:

– How important are they to us?– Are our interactions with them sustainable?– What is the economic cost of unsustainability?– Managing the global ocean requires a system

approach.

Our oceans are our lives

• 60% of the world’s population lives within 60 km of the coast;

• 50% of the oxygen we breathe generated by the ocean;

• Regulation of earth’s climate;

• Crucial for the Earth’s environmental balance & survival.

Our oceans are our lives

• Cultural and spiritual values;

• Transport/shipping;

• Playing grounds for many of us;

• Support jobs; livelihoods & incomes;

• Source of animal protein for many.

L.TehD. Varkey

Fish as base for many activities

Fish stocks

AquacultureCapture fisheries

Seafood processing

Management

Recreational fisheries &

tourism

Marine manufacturing

& services, boat building

Marine research

Fishing ports and jetties

Importance of fish to food security

• Annual ocean fish catch is ~80 million t;• Fish is a good source of protein, micro-

nutrients, minerals and essential fatty acids;• Provides 3 billion people up to 15% of

dietary animal protein;• For low-income food-deficit countries, the

contribution of fish to total animal intake is nearly 20%.

FAO, State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (2009)

Gross revenues from marine capture fisheries worldwide are estimated at between US$ 80 and 85 billion annually (FAO, 2009);

Total impact throughout the global economy is between US$ 220 and 235 billion in 2003 (Dyck & Sumaila, 2010).

Economic contributions of fisheries

Marine fisheries employment

0

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TotalIndirect

Direct

260 million people worldwide involved in marine fisheries, including direct and indirect sector

Top 10 countries providing marine employment

Teh and Sumaila (2011): Fish and Fisheries

Human-ocean interactions unsustainable

Climate change impacts

↑ Sea temperature; ↑ acidification; Δ ocean current pattern; Δ salinity;retreat of sea ice;↑ coastal hypoxic & oxygen min. zone;↑ sea level.

Physical/Chemical changes in the

ocean

Biological / ecological changes in the ocean

Cheung, Watson & Pauly (2012): Nature

Examples of unsustainability

• About 20% of the original area of coral reefs lost (Wilkinson, 2008);

• Sea grasses are disappearing at a rate of 110km2 yr-1 since 1980 (Waycott, 2009);

• Seaweeds in Zanzibar dying as I speak – climate change blamed; huge economic and social consequences for many on the island especially women;

• Habitat destruction from bottom trawling.

Global fish catch and effortC

atch

(m

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es)

Year

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Catch

Global fish catch and effort

*Effective effort indexed on 2000 based on average 2.42% increase annually

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Catch

Effective effort*

Watson et al. (2012): Fish and Fisheries

Company financial data• Dataset contains information on:

– 1000 top global fishing companies operating in 43 countries, including many leading maritime countries;

– Total annual sales value for all companies is about $21 billion or 25% of estimated landed value worldwide.

• We analyzed pre-tax profit.

Plimsoll (2011)

Summary of pre-tax profit data

Sumaila et al. (2012): PLoS One

Percent

80

60

40

20

00.020-0.02 -0.01 0.01

A: Pre-tax profit share of sales for 1000 fishing companies

B: Pre-tax profit share of sales for 43 fishing countries

Subsidies

• Beneficial subsidies (‘investment’ programs in fish stocks);

• Capacity-enhancing (harmful) subsidies (‘disinvestment’ programs in fish stocks);

• Ambiguous subsidies (programs may benefit or harm fish stocks).

Khan et al. (2006); Sumaila & Pauly (2006)

Global subsidy estimate

Sumaila et al. (2010): J. Bioeconomics

Gains from global fisheries

The current picture:•Overcapacity in world’s fishing fleets•Negative economic benefits when full cost of fishing is accounted for(Sumaila et al., 2012: PLoS One).

www.thehindu.com

Global Potential Catch Loss (in million metric t)

Srinivasan et al. (2010): J. Bioeconomics

Food security implications

• Loss of million t of fish per year due to overfishing and other impacts has huge food security implications;

• It is estimated that more effective management of global fish stocks could create food to avert undernourishment for about 19 million people worldwide.

Srinivasan et al. (2010): J. Bioeconomics

Managing the global ocean requires a system approach

L.Teh

Strong human-ocean connection

0

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

% S

har

ed

Catch

Landed value

Nudge stakeholders to cooperate

Annual shared fisheries catch and landed value across all countries 1950-2006 (Teh & Sumaila, in submission.)

Munro (1979): Canadian J. Economics; Sumaila (2013): Book

Climate change fisheries & aquaculture

Cheung et al. (2009) Fish & Fisheries 10: 235-251

Buy insurance by protecting a sizable portion of the ocean

(e.g., Lauck et al., 1996)

High seas vs. Exclusive Economic Zones

Exclusive economic zones (light blue) and high seas (dark blue)

Highly connected nature of marine ecosystems & their fisheries

April 22, 2023 Why the ocean is important. Page 28

Block et al (2011) NatureDoi:10.1038/nature10082

Coastal vs. high seas fisheries

Sumaila et al. (In submission.)

A) Number of species B) Catch C) Landed Value

Breakdown of high seas and EEZ fisheries (annual average over the period 2000-2010)

Implication – close high seas to fishing?

Carbon sequestration versus fish value

• High seas sequesters about 0.448 billion tonnes of carbon annually;

• Equivalent to 1.644 million tonnes of CO2;

• Using the social costs of carbon we can estimate a rough value of this ecosystem service;

• $148 billion per annum (range of $74 - $222 billion);

• High seas fish catch value $16 billion (10 million tonnes).

The high seas & intra-generational equity: 70% of LV by top 10

Valuation & equity between generations

Present Future

Future benefits from today’s perspective

Value

“Egoism is the law of perspectives as it applies to feelingsaccording to which what is closest to us appears to be large andweighty, while size and weight decrease with our distancefrom things” (attributed to Nietzche, 1844-1900).

Discounting in economics

Concluding remarks

• President Obama announced:– the creation of ~ 2 mil. km2 of marine protected

areas;

– that his administration is to ensure that all fish sold in the US is legal and traceable

• The President of Kiribati: his country will ban commercial fishing in its waters;

• The President of Palau: his country will create a National Marine Sanctuary that encompasses 80% of its waters.

Came from D.C. where I attended Sec. John Kerry’s Ocean Conference: Our Ocean 2014. You can find the Secretary’s opening remarks here:http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/06/227692.htm

Merci!Gratulere Med Dagen, Ivar!