managing risks and increasing resilience in london...managing risks and increasing resilience in...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Managing risks and increasing resilience in London...Managing risks and increasing resilience in London Alex Nickson, Greater London Authority & Dave Wardle, Environment Agency Building](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040904/5e7731fdd92c370a3c62679b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Managing risks
and increasing
resilience in
London
Alex Nickson, Greater London Authority & Dave Wardle, Environment Agency
Building Cities Resilience to Disasters: Protecting
Cultural Heritage and Adapting to Climate Change.
19-20 March 2012, Venice
![Page 2: Managing risks and increasing resilience in London...Managing risks and increasing resilience in London Alex Nickson, Greater London Authority & Dave Wardle, Environment Agency Building](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040904/5e7731fdd92c370a3c62679b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
How is London vulnerable to
climate impacts ?
• Flooding
• Overheating
• Water resources
• Wind storms
• Snow and ice
• Air quality
• Subsidence and heave
• Global climate events
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The challenges - flooding
5 flood sources
• Tidal
• Fluvial
• Surface
• Sewer
• Groundwater
Low (0.1% - 0.5%)
Moderate (0.5% - 1.3%)
Significant (>1.3%)
Tidal and fluvial flood risk.
Source: Environment
Agency
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80,000 properties at significant risk of
surface water flooding
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How will climate change increase the risk of
floods and droughts ?
• Rising sea levels
• Wetter winters and more heavy rainfall episodes
• Peak river flows could increase by 40% by 2080s
Average Monthly Rainfall: All Scenarios against Baseline
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Rain
fall (
mm
/mo
nth
)
1961-1990 Baseline Rainfall 2020s 2050s 2080s
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The challenges - drought
• The south east of England is already
seriously ‘water stressed’.
• 80% of London’s water supply from rivers.
20% from groundwater
• London’s water resources are already
over-abstracted, or over-licensed.
• In a dry year, we can only balance supply
and demand through desalination
• Londoners use more water than the
national average (167 l/p/d vs 150 l/p/d)
• Only 1 in 4 homes has a water meter
• The Victorian-era water distribution
network loses over 1/4 water in leakage Identifying Areas of Water Stress, EA
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The challenges - overheating
• 600 people died in the 2003 heatwave
• London’s microclimate amplifies the impact of hot weather (London is up to 10ºC warmer than the greenbelt on summer nights)
• Londoners are more resilient to rising temperatures than other UK regions, but suffer most when temperatures exceed 24°C.
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Adaptation actions • Identifying who and what is at risk, today & tomorrow
• Re-greening the city – Increase London-wide tree cover by 5% by 2025
– Increase greencover in the centre of London by 10% by 2050
• Ensuring new development is fit for the future
• Retrofitting existing development – Public and private sector retrofit programmes
• Raise awareness, encourage ownership of risk and build capacity to act – Revising emergency plans to be more proactive
– Community Resilience Plans
• Leading by example – Changing corporate approach to climate risks
• Research into ‘adaptation gap’
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Closing the ‘adaptation gap’
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Thames Estuary 2100
Managing flood risk through London and the
Thames Estuary to the end of the Century
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Storm Surge depression originating in the Atlantic
London
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Storm Surge at Northern Scotland
London
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Storm Surge off East Coast
London
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Storm Surge at Thames Estuary
London
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Storm Surge at Thames Estuary
London
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1879 Flood Act
Late C19 update
to Flood Act
1928 Flood & subsequent 1930 Flood Act
Interim Defences during the construction of the Thames Barrier
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![Page 18: Managing risks and increasing resilience in London...Managing risks and increasing resilience in London Alex Nickson, Greater London Authority & Dave Wardle, Environment Agency Building](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040904/5e7731fdd92c370a3c62679b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
What is the TE2100 Plan?
• A changing climate
• A changing estuary
• Ageing flood defences
A plan of options and actions demonstrating how flood risk
could be managed in the Thames Estuary over this century
in response to:
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Managing flood risk over the century
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1m 0m 4m 3m 2m
New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defences
Raise
Defences
New barrier, raise defences
New barrier with locks
HLO 1
HLO 3a
HLO 3b
HLO 4
HLO 2
Existing system
Improve Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences
Over-rotate Thames
Barrier and restore
interim defences Flood storage, improve Thames
Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences
Flood storage, over rotate Thames
Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences
Flood storage, restore
interim defences
Maximum sea level rise:
Current Defra
Old High ++ All four options
suitable in 2100 Improve defences
Maximise storage
New Barrier
New Barrier
with locks High ++
Estuary-
wide
options
A plan adaptable to climate change