managing risk in a highly variable climate: farmer case study - barry mudge
TRANSCRIPT
1. Managing risk in a highly variable climate- Farmer case study example Barry Mudge Farmer Consultant Port Germein 2. Port Germein 3. Vital Statistics
- Farm size 1600 Ha
- Fourth generation since closer settlement in 1878
- Average Annual Rainfall (Port Germein) 329mm (175 625 mm)
- Average Growing Season Rainfall (April to October) 227mm (85 -485 mm)
- Mixed farming program- predominantly Wheat/ Sheep
4. Historic Crop Yields 6. Strategic Resilience Tactical Responsiveness 7. Tactical Management- Dealing with risk
- Attempting to predict seasonal variability
- Respond accordingly
8. Tactical Responses- Dealing with risk
- Final crop yields are heavily influenced by PAW at seeding and time of seeding.
- Responses can reduce downside risk and maximise upside opportunity
- Focus on tactical responsiveness has been fundamental in surviving the past few difficult seasons
9. Recent important developments
- Maximising PAW at sowing (GRDC WUE Initiative and CSIRO Plant Industry)
- Direct Drilling
13. Direct Drilling and Early Seeding- Why is this so important? 14. Take Home Message
- Climatically challenged farming systems have shown remarkable resilience to date
- Harnessing the variability in these systems is the key to making them robust
- Technology will continue to allow these systems to evolve
15. Climate Change
- A warmer and dryer word is likely to bring new boundaries
- Likely to have fewer good years- need to capture these better
- Rate of change may increase- adaptations will need to keep pace
- Strong role for the scientific and research community in assisting with the change process- investing public funds in R & D is imperative to making these farming systems work with ramifications throughout these communities
16. Yield Probabilities-2006/2007 64% 24% High 3.0 t/ha and over 23% 26% Medium 1.8 to 3.0 t/ha 13% 50% Low -Up to 1.8t/ha 2007 2006 Yield 64% 24% High 3.0 t/ha and over 23% 26% Medium 1.8 to 3.0 t/ha 13% 50% Low -Up to 1.8t/ha 2007 2006 Yield 17. Low Modelled Plant Available Water at seeding (PAW 78 mm)-Port Germein 19. Modelled effects of PAW at seeding against simulated yields at Quorn- 1900 to 2009 20. What happened in 2007
- Reduced sowings in 2005 and 2006 due to predicted lower yields
- Large summer rainfall event in Jan 2007 and March 2007
- Good opening rain in April 2007
- Maximum crop area sown into full soil moisture profile
- Very low rainfall for balance of growing season
- Average to slightly below average yields
- Strong profit result due to good prices
21. Co-Author Acknowledgement
- Original aboriginal inhabitants
- William Mudge- First white settler 1878
- Ern Mudge-Son of William
- Laurence Mudge- Son of Ern and father of Barry