managing for rapid change: adaptive conservation …managing for rapid change: adaptive conservation...

Managing for Rapid Change: Adaptive Conservation StrategiesEllie M. Cohen and PRBO Staff February 26, 2009USFWS Region 8 Biologists’ Meeting, San Francisco

PRBO Conservation Science

Study birds and ecosystems to improve conservation outcomes

• Founded in 1965 as Pt Reyes Bird Observatory

• 120 staff and seasonal biologists

SF Bay Research Center/HeadquartersPetaluma Wetlands, Petaluma, CA. www.prbo.org

http://www.prbo.org/


Birds: Nature’s “S&P 500”Indicators of ecosystem health

Brown Pelicans


PRBO & Natl. Wildlife Refuges- 4+ decades

• Bird & vegetation surveys

• Demographic studies• T&E surveys• Restoration monitoring

& guidance• Habitat conversion &

climate change impacts modeling

• Bird monitoring trainings

• Fundraising (!)….and more! PRBO visit to San Pablo Bay Refuge

January 2009 Photo by Giselle Block


Talk outline

1. Latest climate change findings

2. Projections for birds in California

3. Adaptive management strategies to address rapid change

4. Thoughts for our future


CO2 into atmosphere

• ~4x greater than 1990s

• Exceeds IPCC worst case

www.globalcarbonproject.org Sept. 2008Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/


Jet streams moving poleward 1979-2001= major ∆’s storm, precipitation patterns

Archer & Caldera, Geophysical Research Letters, April 2008


Steig, et al, Nature 457, 459-462 Jan 22 2009

“State of Polar Research” Feb 25, 2009World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Intl. Council for Science (ICSU )

\

Antarctica – significant warming beyond Peninsula

Ice sheets melting faster– both polar regions

• +0.6º C past 50 yrs

• Wilkin’s Ice Shelf breaking up now


Sea level rise

-Already >2x fasterthan IPCC 2007 predictions(www.climateinstitute.org.au)

-New estimate: Up to 1.3 m (4.3 ft) by 2100 (A1B scenario- middle of road)

Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. JevrejevaClimate Dynamics, Jan. 6, 2009

www.glaciology.net/Home

http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/


Ocean acidification

Richard Feely, NOAA., Jan 2009 www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/personnel/feely.html

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/personnel/feely.html


Photo: Tom Van Sant- The Climate Project

American West temperatures –rising 2x faster than rest of world(www.rockymountainclimate.org, March 2008)


Trees in West dying 2x faster

over recent decadesMantgem, et al, Science, Vol. 323. no. 5913, Jan. 23, 2009


Drought = reduced or no songbird breeding

–Sonoran Desert

Chrissal Thrasher

Longest droughts on record- 2006, 2007Chris McCreedy, www.prbo.org

Phainopepla


Changes in arrival dates

~ 2/3 central CA songbirds have changes in spring and fall arrival dates

Mismatch in timing between birds and food?

MacMynowski et al., Global Change Biology, 2007 Grant Ballard www.prbo.org

Western Kingbird

Barn Swallow

Black-headed Grosbeak


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mean productivity = 0.67

Increased ocean variability & seabird breeding failure

Cassin’s AukletFarallon National Wildlife Refuge

www.prbo.org

Chicks per pair


The future of salmon in CA?

Krill

“Salmon season called off in bid to save chinook”April 11, 2008

“Smallest fall run of chinook salmon reported”February 19, 2009

San Francisco Chronicle


Mega-drought, other abrupt change projected

Thresholds of Climate Changein Ecosystems, Jan. 2009

“Slight changes in climate may trigger major abrupt ecosystem responses …

including insect outbreaks, wildfire, and forest dieback.”

“[need to] predict and understand early warning signals of impending ecological

thresholds.”

Abrupt Climate ChangeFinal Report, Dec. 2008

US Climate Change Science Programwww.climatescience.gov

“…models project a permanent drying by the mid-21st century… a quarter of the

projections may reach this level of aridity much earlier. “

http://www.climatescience.gov/


Where will bird diversity be highest in CA?

•Averaged over 2 climate models and 2 distribution models•Data for 60 focal land bird species (CA Partners in Flight) representing 5 habitats (scrub, oak, conifer, riparian, grassland)

Source: PRBO, Stralberg et al., unpublishedSource: PRBO, Stralberg et al., unpublished

Hotspots of change by 2070

• Greatest increases (blue)- predicted for Sierra Nevada and North Coast regions

• Greatest projected losses (red)


Whose lands win or lose the most in CA?

Department of Defense

Conservancy/Land Trust

State Conservancy

US Fish and Wildlife Service

Bureau of Reclamation

National Park Service

CA State Parks

CA State Lands Commission

CA Dept of Fish and Game

Bureau of Land Management

USDA Forest Service

CA Dept of Forestry

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Species Richness Change (mean % relative to current)

Howell, Stralberg, et. al,

unpublished,

www.prbo.org



How will refuge management responsibilities change?

Stralberg, Howell, et. al, unpublished, draft, not for distribution www.prbo.org

Scrub associated birds projected to increase on refuge lands but…

US Fish and Wildlife Service

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

all

grass

conifer

oak

scrub

riparian

Change in species richness (relative to current)



What will future bird communities look like?

Diana Stralberg, et. al., in preparation, not for distribution, www.PRBO.org

•Projected by 2070•Data from 60 land bird focal species•Assumes all exist 60 years from now •Combined with temperature, precipitation and vegetation variables •From IPCC scenarios

Exceeding IPCC worst-case scenarios nowMore warming in pipelineSigns of mega-drought

Species extinctions, community changes inevitableEconomic outlook is gloomy

What are the implications for refuge management?

High proportion of no-analog assemblages

by 2070



Photo by Ellie Cohen, PRBO


Shift to a new conservation paradigm

ESA--Endangered Species Act--powerful tool of 20th century

Need new statutes, regulations to address rapid ecological change in 21st Century

Ecosystem Services ActEcosystem Services ActHealthy Ecosystems Act


Start managing for rapid change now

MANAGE FOR ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION and SERVICESRevise regulations, management plans, protocols as needed

Photo by John Wiens, Tolay Creek/Tubbs Island, San Pablo NWR


Employ Adaptive Conservation Strategies

Design/Recommend Actions

Conservation Plans, Predictive Models, Web-based Tools, Partnerships, etc.

Design/Recommend Actions

Conservation Plans, Predictive Models, Web-based Tools, Partnerships, etc.

Feedbac

k

Feedbac

k Loop

Loop

MonitoringAt project level, using

indicators spp.

MonitoringAt project level, using

indicators spp.

ImplementationImplementation

ModifyModify

Evaluation Evaluation

Williams et al. 2007. Department of Interior Adaptive Management Technical Guide

Elliott, et., al., Adaptive Conservation Strategies Guide, 2003 www.prbo.org

Identify/ Reassess threats, problemsIdentify/ Reassess threats, problems



Plan for extremes, wider range of variability

past future

Ecos

yste

m s

tate

e.g. plan for mega-drought, 1000+ yr flood and other scenariosNat Seavy

www.prbo.org

Prioritize projects that

could succeed under multiple

scenarios



Enhance ecosystem response to change

• Promote natural processes • Flooding• Fire• Remove levees for tidal

exposure

• Maximize heterogeneity, adaptive variation• conserve ecotones,

gradients

Millar et al. 2007; Seavy et al, www.PRBO.org unpublished; Tom Smith, UCLA



Cosumnes Preserve

Significantly expand riparian restoration

Yellow Warbler

Grosholz, T., et al, UC Davis

Ecosystem “Services”:

• Retain water, soil moisture• Replenish groundwater • Reduces flood damage

• Provides wildlife corridors

• Sustains biodiversity

• Nourishes upland habitat

• Provides thermal refugia


Plan restorations for an unpredictable hydrograph

Nat Seavywww.prbo.org



Plant for genetic diversity in restoration

Cool

WarmNat Seavy

www.prbo.org

Wet Dry



Central Valley- O’Conner Lakes Project

Flow: about 65,000 cfs

4 January 2006

RESULTS: Re-vegetation, increased biodiversity, replenished ground water and conveyed flood waters

River Partners with:• CA Dept of Fish & Game• CA Parks & Recreation• PRBO Conservation Science• The Nature Conservancy• U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service


Expand connectivity now: Actively partner with adjacent landowners -- public and private

Gale Ranch, Marin County RCD


Results: biodiversity, response to change

Gale Ranch, Marin County RCD


Expedite tidal wetland restorations, prioritize connectivity to upland habitats

Design to maximize ecosystem function and services

North SF Bay ~50k Acres of Wetland RestorationNapa Sonoma Marsh Restoration, Ponds 2, 2a, 3, Larry Wyckoff, CDFG

Ecosystem “services”:

• Sequester carbon• Reduce flood impacts• Reduce sea level rise impacts• Sustain biodiversity• Filter out pollutants


Identify future wetlands, uplands for protection

Northern SF Bay DeltaAssumptions:•1 m sea level rise• no sediment accretion

Stralberg, D., et al, PRBO, 2009

Salt Marsh Common Yellowthroat


Reduce stressors– e.g., exposure to disturbance & expected extremes when possible

Brandt’s Cormorants 2008

•BRCO → rockfish & anchovies → krill– lag effect- asynchronous breeding?•Extreme Heat- May 15-16, 2008- nest abandonment, mortality


Provide early warning of changee.g., Seabird- Fish Models

Cassin's Auklet breeding success (year x - 1)

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

Chi

nook

sal

mon

abu

ndan

ce (m

illio

ns)

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4Cassin’s Auklet breeding success

at Farallon NWR predicts next year’s salmon abundance

Jennifer Roth, et al, 2007, Canadian J. Fisheries Aqua. Sci. -- www.prbo.org


Engage in non-traditional partnerships

• Must go beyond refuge boundaries• Include:

- Adjacent landowners (public & private)

- Outside scientists- Local planning & development agencies- Other interests

• Strive for joint, landscape-level, voluntary solutions (e.g., safe harbor)


California Avian Data Center www.prbo.org/cadc

Share data & findings: e.g., web-based visualizations

PRBO Conservation Sciencewww.prbo.org/cadc


What will be the key drivers of conservation in the future?

• Water• Carbon- must balance carbon markets with ecological function

• Renewable Energy -how to ensure eco-friendly? • Ocean acidification?• Other?

$$$$$$$$$$$


No time to lose

“The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost.”

IPCC 4th Assessment Final report, November, 2007

--------------------------------

Stop greenhouse gas pollution and

make adaptive ecosystem conservation an equal priority now!


A new era… full of opportunity

PRBO Conservation ScienceIn summary or…So, how should I manage my lands in the face of accelerating change?

1. Adopt a new conservation paradigm at all levels- e.g., test new approaches, be flexible, integrate climate change with current projects, test indicators, etc.

2. Prioritize ecosystem function and services

3. Consider multiple projections about climate impacts– due to various uncertainties, issues of scale

4. Plan for extremes, anticipate abrupt changes, accept there will be losses

5. Actively apply full adaptive management cycle with ongoing, project-level indicator monitoring

6. Broaden non-traditional partnerships, reach beyond boundaries of all kinds, leverage outside science and resources

7. Think out-of-the refuge!


THANK YOU!

PRBO File Photo


Additional resources - sampling

• Adaptive Conservation Strategies, PRBO Conservation Science, 2003, www.prbo.org/cms/279

• Adaptive Management Technical Guide, US Dept. of Interior, 2007 www.doi.gov/initiatives/AdaptiveManagement/documents.html

• Association of State Wetlands Managers- Climate Change portal http://www.aswm.org/science/climate_change/climate_change.htm#1

• Before the Deluge: Coping with Floods in a Changing Climatewww.internationalrivers.org

• Climate Change and Wetland Restoration, SF Bay Joint Venture, Nov. 2008 www.sfbayjv.org

• Climate science by real climate scientists, www.realclimate.org• Science Daily- free daily science publications and news summary

www.sciencedaily.com/• Unquiet Ice Speaks Volumes on Global Warming. Robin Bell.

Scientific American, Feb. 2008 http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-unquiet-ice

• US Climate Change Science Program www.climatescience.gov –reports on adaptation, abrupt change, ecological thresholds.

http://www.prbo.org/cms/279

http://www.doi.gov/initiatives/AdaptiveManagement/documents.html

http://www.aswm.org/science/climate_change/climate_change.htm#1

http://www.internationalrivers.org/

http://www.sfbayjv.org/

http://www.realclimate.org/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-unquiet-ice

http://www.climatescience.gov/


Many thanks to:

PRBO staff, Board, members, and:American Bird ConservancyS.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation

Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Land Management

California Coastal ConservancyCalifornia Department of Fish and Game

California Department of Water ResourcesCalifornia Bay Delta Authority

California AudubonCalifornia Seagrant

Central Valley Joint VentureCornell Lab of Ornithology

DMARLOU FoundationRichard Grand Foundation

Marin Municipal Water DistrictGiles Mead Foundation

Moore Family Foundation/Gordon & Betty Moore FoundationDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationNational Fish and Wildlife Foundation

National Park ServiceNational Science Foundation

NOAA Fisheries, Marine SanctuariesNatural Resource Conservation Service

Resources Law Group/Resources Legacy Fund FoundationRiparian Habitat Joint Venture

San Francisco Bay Joint VentureThe Climate Project

The Nature ConservancyU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

US Geological SurveyUSDA Forest Service

managing for rapid change: adaptive conservation …managing for rapid change: adaptive conservation...

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