managed timber production model shan ma. forest services the services provided by a forest include:...
TRANSCRIPT
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Managed Timber Production Model
Shan Ma
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Forest Services
• The services provided by a forest include:– Carbon sequestration– Water quality regulation– Water quantity regulation (flood management)– Biodiversity conservation– Pollinator habitat– Timber– Non-timber forest products (NTFPs): bushmeat,
medicine, etc.
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Why we are interested in timber
• Timber production is important to human well-being and economic growth across the globe.
• The value of timber would help determine the societal cost of alternative development or conservation plans (i.e., economic opportunity costs).
newslincolncounty.com
© Corel Corporation, 1994
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Tier 1 Timber model• Analyze the amount and volume of legally harvested
timber from natural forests and managed plantations based on harvest level and cycle
– Forest plantation• Simple mix of fastest-growing species• Rotational cutting and replanting• Even distribution of tree ages
– Primary, natural forests• Retaining much of natural structure and function at
least at the beginning of a harvest cycle• E.g., logging of rainforests in the Amazon
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Property right of harvest
InVESTmodel
Open access Intermediate access Exclusive access
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Timber yield model
Climate
Inputs
Site ConditionSoil type
ElevationSlope
Species
Rotation Time
Growth rate
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Net present value of timber
ClimateInputs
Site ConditionSoil type
ElevationSlope
Species
Rotation TimeManagement
Costs
Market Value
NPVDiscounted Future Value
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InVEST Tier 1 Model
Climate
Inputs
Regional Mean Annual Increment: can be parcel specific if info is available
Species
Rotation TimeManagement
Costs
Market Value
NPV
No production function for Tier 1 model
Discounted Future Value
Harvest level
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Assumptions
• An entity has a formally recognized right to harvest roundwood from a forest
• Forest harvested %, mass of timber harvested, and the frequency of harvest period remain constant
• Harvest-related prices and costs remain constant
• Discount rate remains constant
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Data needs (1)
• Timber management zones (required)
– A GIS dataset (vector)
– Each zone should be given a
unique identifier
– Projected in meters with
defined projection
– Used only for visualization
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Data needs (2)• Production table (required)– Starting point: year_current or year_future
Parcel _ID
Parcel _area
area%_ harvest
Freq_ harvest
Harvest _mass Price Maint_
costHarvest
_cost T Immed_harvest BCEF
1 1000 2.22 1 80 300 190 50 50 Y 1
2 1000 2.22 1 70 200 260 124 50 Y 1
3 1000 25 20 70 200 310 225 50 N 1
4 500 100 1 95 350 180 45 1 Y 1
5 500 20 2 95 400 190 105 10 Y 1
BCEF: Expansion factor that translates the mass of harvested wood into volume. Set as 1 if not sure.T: The number of years from yr_cur or yr_fut that parcel harvests will be valuedHarvest biomass in metric tons/ ha in each harvest period
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Data needs (3)
• Market Discount Rate (required for valuation)
– Reflect society’s preference for immediate benefits over
future benefits
– Default value: 7% /year
– This rate should differ depending on the country and
landscape being evaluated
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Running the model (1)
Load parcel data:C:/Invest/timber/input/plantation
Double click InVEST
timber tool
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Running the model (2)
Shapefile
Discount rate
Production table
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Model Output
• Attributes for each timber parcel
— TNPV: Total net present value of timber production (dollar)
— Tbiomass: Total biomass of harvested wood removed (Mg)
— Tvolume: Total volume of harvested wood removed (m3)
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Model application
Nelson, et al. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2009; 7(1): 4–11. Connie Burdick
Willamette River Basin
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Model application• Willamette River Basin (OR)
– Loss of 60% old-growth forest due to forest harvest
– Expected doubling population over the next 50 years
– Policy challenge: old-growth forest & wildlife protection vs. local economic development
– Stakeholder driven scenarios:• Development: allow freer rein to market forces across all
components of the landscape• Conservation: place greater emphasis on ecosystem
protection and restoration
Nelson, et al. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2009; 7(1): 4–11.
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Model application• Net present value of commodities ($/unit area)(including timber, agricultural crops, and residential housing)
ConservationScenario
Development Scenario
Nelson, et al. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2009; 7(1): 4–11.
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Model application discussion
• Where do you plan to apply this model?
• What are the key policy questions?
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Hands-on session!
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Post-analysis
1 2 3 4 5 6
-10000000
-5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
TNPV
1 2 3 4 5 60
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000TBiomass
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Post-analysis
1 2 3 4 5 6
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
8,372.16
2,993.613,792.55
13,422.05
1,388.60
-1,839.14
TNPV/ha
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Willamette River Basin Example• Net present value of commodities ($/unit area)(including timber, agricultural crops, and residential housing)
ConservationScenario
Development Scenario
Nelson, et al. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2009; 7(1): 4–11.
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Synthesis of results (1)• Willamette Basin case study Including Timber
Nelson, et al. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2009; 7(1): 4–11.
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•Trade-off between different services– Little tradeoff between biodiversity conservation and other
regulating ecosystem services. – Obvious trade-off between commodity provision and other
types of ES
•Incentive program would alleviates the tradeoff – Payments for ecosystem services– Conservation easements– Government program (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program)
Synthesis of results (2)
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Model Outlook• Open-access and intermediate timber harvest
• Tier 2 : dynamic model – allowing change of harvest volume and value over time
• Non-timber forest products (separate model under development)– Medicinal & Herbal Products – Decorative Products – Specialty Wood Products – Edible Products
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Questions and comments
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