malaysia property market trend analysis -...

Malaysia Property Market Trend

Analysis - Residential

Big Data Analytics for Real Estate & Property Development

2nd May 2019

© 2019 JLL Property Services Sdn. Bhd. All rights reserved. | Malaysia Property Market Trend Analysis – Residential 2

Presentation Outline

• Overview

➢ Residential Transactions

➢ Malaysia House Price Index (MHPI)

➢ Residential Loan Approval Rate

➢ Residential Demand & Stock

• Residential trend Analysis on Key States:

➢ KL, Selangor, Penang, Johor

• Conclusion

*Data used are taken largely from reports by NAPIC, Bank Negara Malaysia and Department of Statistics


Residential Transactions in MalaysiaResidential Property Market Seems to Have Bottomed

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Volume of Transactions Value of Transactions (RM mil)

Vol. of Residential Transactions

• Number of transactions and total transacted value increased marginally by 1.4% and 0.4% y-o-y respectively.

Source: NAPIC, 2019

2018 Volume: +1.4%

2018 Value: +0.4%Value (RM mil)

bottomed

DIBS

© 2019 JLL Property Services Sdn. Bhd. All rights reserved. | Malaysia Property Market Trend Analysis – Residential

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4

Residential Transactions in MalaysiaA Change in Trends Since 2014

Average Transacted Value (RM)

Source: NAPIC, 2019

2017

1. Increased foreign floor price from RM500k to RM1 mil per unit

2. DIBS abolished

1. Developers building more affordable housing

2. Pre-election

• Average transacted value declined 1.0%.

2014

DIBS



• Overview







• Conclusion



Malaysian House Price IndexGrowth of House Price is the Slowest Since 2001

14.3

9.2

6.1

1.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

(P)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual growth (%)

Malaysian House Price Index (2010 = 100)

*Note: 2018 Q3 figures are preliminary (P)Source: NAPIC, 2019

• The easing in house price growth has been reflective of weaker demand for properties in the higher-priced segments.

• The Government and market is building more properties within the affordable price range.

Still growing but at a slower pace


Malaysian House Price Index by house typePositive Increases Seen in Terrace and Semi-D



80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

(P)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Terrace Semi-D

Semi-D +0.2%

Terrace +4.6%


Malaysian House Price Index by house typeNegative Growth Seen in High Rise Residential and Detached



80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

(P)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

High Rise Detached

High rise -3.8%

Detached -3.7%



• Overview







• Conclusion



98,3

08.2

245,

903.

8

239,

516.

4

57,9

54.3

121,

000.

6

102,

752.

3

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Loan Applied for Purchase of Residential Property (RM mil)Loan Approved for Purchase of Residential Property (RM mil)

59.0%

2008 Approval Rate

10

Residential Loan Approval RateLoan Application and Approval Revived

Loan Applied and Approved for Purchase of Residential Property (RM mil)

• More loan applications possibly shows higher residential property demand.

• Increase in loan approval indicates that banks are more lenient.

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, 2019

42.9%

2018 Approval Rate

49.2%

2013 Approval Rate



• Overview







• Conclusion



Residential Transactions According to Price Range Increasing Demand for Properties Priced between RM300k and RM500k

Breakdown of residential transactions according to price range

Price Range 2017 2018 Growth

< RM300,000 122,263 123,724 1.2%

RM300,000 - RM500,000 38,624 40,731 5.5%

RM500,000 - RM1mil 25,502 24,583 -3.6%

> RM1mil 8,295 8,347 0.6%

Total 194,684 197,385 1.4%

Source: NAPIC, 2019

• More transactions for residential properties between RM300,000 to RM500,000 were recorded in 2018.


Residential StockSlowing Growth in Stock

Source: NAPIC, 2019

Total stock (units)

• Stock increase has reduced in 2017 and 2018.

84,840

122,921

4,956

382,955

192,552

149,429

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual stock growth


Residential StockIncreasing Unsold Units of Existing Stock

Source: NAPIC, 2019

15,0

91

13,5

47

9,73

3

10,2

85

14,7

92

24,7

38

32,3

13

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unsold units of existing stock (units)

+30.6%

• Despite this, unsold units are rising.



• Overview







• Conclusion



Kuala Lumpur Selangor Johor Penang

2016 11,252 48,879 26,186 13,244

2017 10,856 47,551 24,886 12,090

2018 10,983 47,715 26,885 12,551

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Un

its

+8.0%

Number of residential transactions in key states

Source: NAPIC, 2019

+1.2%

+0.3%

+3.8%

16

Residential Transactions

• Johor recorded the highest growth of 8.0% in residential units transacted, meanwhile Selangor recorded the lowest, 0.3%.

Positive Transaction Growth in Key States


Take-up rate of completed and incoming stock% of Unsold Units Increase, Except for Penang

+39%

-11%

+26%

+198%

71

7

92

9

2,7

69

1,7

18

3,7

13

4,6

93

3,6

71

4,3

76

6,0

66

1,8

96

3,9

16

3,5

02

0.16%

0.58%

0.12%

0.31%

0.49%

0.75%

0.39%

0.69%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Kuala Lumpur Selangor Johor Penang

Ove

rall

Un

sold

Ra

te %

Un

sold

Co

mp

lete

d U

nit

s

Unsold Completed Units % Unsold


Take-up rate of completed and incoming stockHighest Number of Unsold Completed Units seen in Johor

Johor 19%

Perak 17%

Selangor 15%

Pulau Pinang 11%

Kedah 10%

Kuala Lumpur 9%

Sarawak 4%

Pahang4%

Sabah 4%

Negeri Sembilan 3%

Melaka 2%

Terengganu 1%Kelantan

1%

Perlis 0% Putrajaya

0%

StateUnsold

Unit

% (Unsold in state/ total

unsold in Malaysia)

Johor 6,066 19%Perak 5,367 17%Selangor 4,693 15%Pulau Pinang 3,502 11%Kedah 3,311 10%

Kuala Lumpur 2,769 9%Sarawak 1,412 4%Pahang 1,405 4%Sabah 1,377 4%Negeri Sembilan 1,046 3%Melaka 759 2%Terengganu 402 1%Kelantan 139 0%Perlis 65 0%Putrajaya - 0%Labuan - 0%Total 32,313 100%


Year 2016 2017 2018

Units launched 5,816 22,112 9,714

Units sold 1,588 4,313 2,897

Take-up rate 27.30% 19.50% 29.80%

19

Take-up rate of newly launched stock (Kuala Lumpur) Number of Units Launched Dropped

• Developers have scaled back in 2018.

• Take up rate has improved from 19.5% to 29.8%.

• Of the 9,714 units launched, JLL tracks 4,000+ prime and luxury units in prime locations.

• Based on JLL’s in-house research data, about 45% of the 4,000+ prime and luxury residential units launched in 2018 were taken-up.

Number and sales performance of new launches in Kuala Lumpur

Source: NAPIC, 2019


Year 2016 2017 2018

Units launched 8,087 13,522 12,177

Units sold 2,875 6,100 5,425

Take-up rate 35.60% 45.10% 44.60%

20

Take-up rate of newly launched stock (Selangor)Number of Units Launched Dropped

• Units launched and units sold maintained.

• Take-up rate in Selangor has always been higher than KL.

• Take-up rate stays good.

Number and sales performance of new launches in Selangor

Source: NAPIC, 2019


Incoming supply vs Projected increase in HHFood for Thought

• Currently, it appears that the number and of existing housing in KL and Penang is more than its population.

• At the same time, overhang units in all states are high?

• What does this mean?

State 2018 Existing Housing 2018 No. of Households

Kuala Lumpur 478,258 449,050

Selangor 1,537,300 1,629,625

Johor 811,350 941,200

Penang 507,827 444,550

Malaysia 5,577,922 8,141,725

Source: NAPIC, 2019 ; Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2019



• Overview







• Conclusion



Conclusion & 2019 outlook

• The residential property market is expected to remain challenging in 2019.

• Landed properties would likely see better demand.

• Housing affordability continues to be the main focus of housing industry. According to Bank Negara,more than 70% of loans approved were for first-time home buyers of properties priced below RM500k.

• Developers should monitor the new affordable homes built by the government in order to supply aniche that is not served.

• The unprecedented large property overhang will take more time for the market to absorb before theresidential market could stage a meaningful recovery.


Awards won by JLL Property Services (Malaysia)

• MIEA National Real Estate Awards 2017 – Commercial Real Estate Firm of the Year• MIEA National Real Estate Awards 2017 – Real Estate Agent of the Year YY Lau • MIEA National Real Estate Awards 2018 – Commercial Real Estate Firm 2018• Asia Pacific Property Awards 2017-2018 – Best Real Estate Agency Malaysia • Asia Pacific Property Awards 2018-2019 – Best Real Estate Agency Malaysia• Asia Pacific Property Awards 2018-2019 – Best Property Consultancy Malaysia


Clientele of JLL Property Services (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd

… and the list goes on…


Introducing Real Estate Intelligent Service (REIS)

Your One Stop Shop for Real Estate Insight

• JLL’s Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) is asubscription-based research service prepared by JLLresearch team to provide timely real estateintelligence and analysis

• Insight across 14 countries and 50 cities

• Combined knowledge of 140 real estateprofessionals

• 3 key sectors in Malaysia: Office, Residential, Retail

• Detailed data for key real estate market indicatorsprovided, including rents, capital values andtransactions


JLL Family

28

All rights reserved. The items in this publication have been compiled from various sources acknowledged. All information contained herein is from sources deemedreliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated, all of its subsidiaries and its global JLL network affiliates are in no way associated with Singham Sulaiman Sdn Bhd trading asJones Lang Wootton in Malaysia.

malaysia property market trend analysis -...

Documents