Making Geography work as an ally to create New History

How India can help – and in turn be helped by – the opportunity to reap rich Peace and Development

dividends through integration of South Asia, South-East Asia and China by linking BCIM, CPEC and other regional connectivities under the ‘One

Belt One Road’ vision

Paper presented by

Sudheendra Kulkarni

Chairman, Observer Research Foundation Mumbai

At the conference on the BCIM Corridor

Organised by the World Institute of Economics and Politics (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, CASS)

Beijing – August 24-25, 2015

All history is geographically located and influenced. Similarly, all geography is shaped, defined and redefined by history.

This is quite evident from the history of Asia – the Rise of Old Asia, its decline in colonial times, and its more recent Rise again.

The dialectic between history and geography manifests itself through the inter-play of three factors – geo-political, geo-economic and geo-cultural/civilisational.

In the case of Asia, for nearly three centuries, the geo-political and geo-economic realities were influenced by Europe and the West in general. However, that is largely a thing of the past. Asia has begun to write its own destiny now.

The 20th century was marked by Asia’s liberation from colonial rule and imperialist subjugation.

The 21st century will be marked by Asia’s Rise, a process that is already underway in some parts of the continent. The other under-developed parts of Asia, especially in South Asia and South-East Asia, are waiting to join the story of Asia’s Rise.

In the 21st century, two phenomena, apparently contradictory but in reality complementary, are driving change.

One phenomenon is Globalisation. The other is Regional and Neighbourhood Cooperation.

Although the two may seem opposed to each other, in reality, they are supporting each other.

More and more countries around the world, and especially in Asia, are discovering the virtues and benefits of regional and neighbourhood cooperation both for development and security.

Mahatma Gandhi used to say: I should help my neighbour. My neighbour should help his neighbour. He in turn should help his neighbour. In this manner, everyone will help everyone else, and there will be global cooperation.

A wise Chinese proverb says the same thing in a different way: "A good neighbour nearby is more useful than a relative far away."

Until now, the political boundaries carved out on the geography of South Asia and South-East Asia (India and China belong to both regions) had become barriers for the countries in this vast region

to overcome socio-economic underdevelopment caused by history.

Now, thanks to advances in trade, transport and technology, the geography of this region can be made an ally to create new history of shared prosperity, progress and peace, in addition to revitalisation of old cultural-spiritual-civilisational ties.

This is what has been envisaged, on a broader expanse of Asia-Europe-Africa connectivity, by the ‘One Belt One Road’ plan articulated by China’s President Mr. Xi Jinping. The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are super-ambitious initiatives to economically integrate large parts of Asia, and also to extend this integration to many parts of Europe and Africa. This vision cannot become a reality in Asia without a strong India-China partnership, at the core of a pan-Asian partnership.

The key to the success of this strategy is the early implementation of the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) Corridor.

BCIM Corridor: A game changer for the region

The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor linking Kunming in China to Kolkata in India

The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) region is one of the richest in the world in terms of natural, mineral and human resources. The region covers nearly 1/10 the world’s total area, about 7.5 per cent of the global GDP (most of it contributed by China) and is home to 440 million people.

Historically, this region has constituted a common geography in South and South-East Asia with close socio-economic, racial, cultural and spiritual interactions.

However, today the BCIM region exhibits two kinds of imbalances – first is internal and the other is with regard to BCIM region’s external geography.

Barring southern China, the rest of the BCIM region is largely underdeveloped.

Similarly, in comparison to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), region – which itself is a good demonstration of the benefits of regional cooperation – BICM is far behind in development.

For example, intra-regional trade among BCIM member states amounted to only 5 per cent of total BCIM trade in 2012. In comparison, intra-regional trade within ASEAN is 35 per cent of the total trade of ASEAN member countries.

Modern infrastructure connectivity and communication has boosted intra-regional cooperation within ASEAN, and intra-regional cooperation has in turn produced prosperity for all member countries.

By the same logic, the BCIM Corridor will surely help all four countries to harness existing synergies in trade and socio-economic cooperation, and become a game changer for the entire region.

BCIM Corridor: How it will benefit India

That India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world is widely acknowledged. Along with China, India is one of the main engines of the global economy.

However, regional imbalances within India continue to be a serious problem.

The northern, eastern and north-eastern states in India are far less developed than the western, north-western and southern states.

Regional disparity in India is most evident in the relative backwardness of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sikkim and the seven north-eastern states (Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh.

There are several reasons for the socio-economic backwardness of these states. Among them, there are two important reasons, and the BCIM Corridor will address both of them.

Firstly, after India’s Partition in 1947, Calcutta was cut off from East Pakistan, which later became Bangladesh, and also from

India’s own north-eastern region. It was also cut off from Myanmar, Thailand, southern China, etc.

The second reason is that India’s north-eastern region got geographically isolated from the rest of India on the west and also from Myanmar, Thailand, southern China, etc., in its eastern neighbourhood.

The only land connectivity between the rest of India and India’s north-eastern states is the so-called ‘Chicken’s Neck Corridor’ in the north of West Bengal, which is only 23 km wide.

The narrow 23-km-wide ‘Chicken’s Neck’ corridor above landlocked Bangladesh, linking India’s seven north-

eastern states with the rest of India

Here is a stark fact. Agartala, the capital of Tripura, which is one of India’s ‘Seven Sisters’ in the north east, is 1,650 km from Kolkata and 2,637 km from New Delhi, if one travels through the Chicken’s Neck. In contrast, the distance between Agartala and Kolkata through Bangladesh is just about 350 km.

Therefore, direct land route between India’s north-eastern states and the rest of India, through Bangladesh, will greatly reduce the costs of transport for Indian businesses.

Similarly, India’s north-eastern states have no access to India’s coastline. However, Tripura's southernmost border town Sabroom is only 72 km from Chittagong, which is an international sea port in Bangladesh.

Thus, the BCIM Corridor will provide the much-needed access to the sea for India’s north-eastern states.

Tourism is another sector that will get a big boost due to the BCIM Corridor.

Today the total number of foreign tourists coming to all the seven north-eastern Indian states put together is less than 2,00,000.

Even Bangladesh attracts just about 6,00,000 foreign tourists a year.

In contrast, Vietnam attracts 2 million foreign tourists, Cambodia attracts 5 million foreign tourists and Thailand attracts 26 million foreign tourists.

This clearly shows the enormous benefits that the BCIM Corridor can bring to India’s north-eastern states, to Kolkata and West Bengal, through West Bengal to the rest of eastern and northern India.

India’s north-eastern states are suffering not only from geographical isolation because of lack of proper infrastructural connectivity. Geographical isolation has also led to a certain degree of emotional isolation.

Therefore, the BCIM Corridor is also beneficial to India from the point of view of India’s national integration.

When there is greater national integration, along with greater regional integration, it contributes to greater national security.

Therefore, those people in India who oppose the BCIM Corridor from the national security perspective are totally wrong.

BCIM Corridor: How it will boost India-Bangladesh cooperation

The benefits of the BCIM Corridor for Bangladesh are self-evident. Bangladesh is landlocked on three sides by the border with India. Its only access to the rest of the world is through the sea route. This has placed a severe constraint on its overall development.

The BCIM Corridor will provide Bangladesh land-route access to other countries such as Myanmar, China and others in South-East Asia.

Bangladesh’s natural gas reserves are estimated at 200 trillion cubic feet, the largest supply in the Asia-Pacific. If Bangladesh can recover all of that, it would make it one of the largest natural gas producers in the world.

However, the land route to evacuate this gas can be provided only by India. Fortunately, eastern and north-eastern India is also in great need of natural gas.

Thus, the BCIM infrastructure corridor can subsequently lead to BCIM gas pipeline corridor.

Accelerated socio-economic development of Bangladesh (whose population of 160 million is greater than that of Germany and France combined) will not only benefit Bangladesh itself, but also the neighbouring regions of India, China and south-east Asian nations such as Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.

The need to link BCIM to CPEC, and the need to extend CPEC to CPAIEC

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor linking Kashgar with Gwadar port (3,000 kms)

The logic of regional cooperation, which is inherent to the concept of the BCIM Corridor, suggests that we should be creative, comprehensive, ambitious and far-sighted in our approach. In order to involve India more closely into the ‘One Belt One Road’ plan, another important initiative is needed.

The BCIM Corridor needs to be extended westwards through India and connected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

During Chinese President Mr. Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan in April 2015, China and Pakistan signed an agreement on CPEC. China has pledged to invest $46 billion on this project, which is roughly 20 per cent of Pakistan's annual GDP.

I personally welcome this initiative wholeheartedly. I believe that India too should welcome this initiative.

Pakistan’s progress and prosperity are good not just for Pakistan, but also for all its neighbours.

In addition, economic prosperity will help Pakistan tackle many social and other internal problems.

India would like to see a stable, prosperous, progressive, united and democratic Pakistan, which is at peace with itself and also at peace with all its neighbours.

I believe that the CPEC project will help in this goal.

At the same time, I strongly believe that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) needs to be extended into Afghanistan and India and made CPAIEC (China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India Economic Corridor). This will benefit Afghanistan, which is in urgent need of national reconstruction after several decades of war.

CPAIEC will also create new connectivities between India and Pakistan, which also are in urgent need of boosting bilateral trade and economic cooperation as part of the larger effort to achieve normalisation of bilateral relations.

CPAIEC’s connectivities will pass through Kashmir and Punjab, the two provinces which are today divided between India and Pakistan. CPAIEC will bring them, and also India and Pakistan, closer. It will help make the disputed Indo-Pak border in Kashmir irrelevant. It will also make the remaining stretches of the Indo-Pak border porous through modern transport and trade connectivities, both land- and sea-based.

Hence, CPAIEC’s potential benefits are much more than economic in nature. It can create a new history of peace between India and Pakistan on the one hand, and between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the other.

Secondly, CPAIEC on the western side of India and BCIM on the eastern side of India should be connected through modern infrastructure linkages.

It is worth recalling here that Shershah Suri, a 16th century king who ruled large parts of north India, had built a nearly 2,500-km-long road, later called Grand Trunk Road linking Chittagong in the south to Kabul in the north west. Today it connects capitals of four countries – Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The linking of BCIM and CPAIEC will revive this connectivity in the 21st century.

India’s Grand Trunk Road: A nearly 2,500-km-long road was built in the 16th century connecting Chittagong and

Kabul

This will create connectivity between Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, which, before 1947, were part of one Indian subcontinent.

In addition, sea transport between Pakistan, western coast of India, Sri Lanka, eastern coast of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar should be strengthened.

It is clear that both India and China stand to benefit immensely from closer integration among countries of South Asia and South-East Asia. The Peace and Development dividends for other countries in the CPAIEC-BCIM framework are also self-evident. Ultimately, this will benefit more than three billion people.

Needless to add, work should begin with the early implementation of BCIM.

Fortunately, consensus among the governments of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar to build this corridor is growing.

Security concerns over BCIM and CPAIEC

Critics of the proposal to link CPAIEC and BCIM will pose security concerns to scuttle it.

Contrary to the misgivings in certain quarters, the BCIM and CPEC, far from increasing the security concerns for the countries in the region, actually reduces them.

There are three solid reasons for this hope.

Firstly, when two big nations such as India and China cooperate in an infrastructure and economic development project, it provides a proper balance for smaller countries in the coalition. Secondly, development through regional cooperation enhances security for all, rather than endangering it.

For example, when the CPEC, which passes through a part of Kashmir which is currently governed by Pakistan (and is therefore opposed by some people in India), is extended into the Indian part of Kashmir, it will actually help bring the two Kashmirs – as well as India and Pakistan – closer through economic and social integration.

Similarly when the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (which is a part of CPEC) is extended into India, it will benefit India’s energy security immensely.

Joining big and small rivers through a ‘Win-Win’ approach favoured by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping

During his visit to China in May this year, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi said in his speech at the India-China Business Forum in Shanghai: “Indo-Chinese partnership should and will flourish. I expect very good outcome from this coming together. We have complemented each other in the past. We can complement in the present and future too. As two major economies in Asia, the harmonious partnership between India and China is essential for economic development and political stability of the continent.”

What Prime Minister Modi calls complementarity, President Xi Jinping calls the ‘Win-Win’ approach. Speaking at the annual Boao Forum conference in March this year -- and the conference itself was appropriately themed as 'Towards a Community of Common Destiny and A New Future for Asia' -- President Xi Jinping repeatedly used the phrase "Win-Win cooperation".  Using a vivid Chinese aphorism, he remarked, "When big rivers have water, the small ones are filled; and when small rivers have water, the big ones are filled".

I believe that BCIM and CPIAEC can be likened to joining big and small rivers, so that all the rivers get filled with prosperity.

Mr. Xi Jinping emphasised: "Only through win-win cooperation can we make big and sustainable achievements that are beneficial to all. The old mindset of zero-sum game should give way to a new approach of win-win and all-win cooperation. The interests of others must be accommodated while pursuing one's own interests, and common development must be promoted while seeking one's own development. The vision of win-win cooperation not only applies to the economic field, but also to the

political, security, cultural and many other fields. It not only applies to countries within the region, but also to cooperation with countries from outside the region."

This is in stark contrast to the manner in which Western hegemonic powers have traditionally dealt with developing and under-developed countries -- "We win, You lose".

This is the surest way to ensure that Asia’s Rise in the 21st century becomes the Rise of every Asian country, big as well as small.

(Comments are welcome at sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com)