making better reinsurance decisions… measuring seismic risk in turkey: latest modelling techniques...

Making better reinsurance decisions…

Measuring seismic risk in Turkey: Latest modelling techniques

Karl Jones

June 3, 2003

©Copyright 2003 Willis Limited all rights reserved.


The Turkish Catastrophe Management System (TCMS)

• Developed under the Turkish Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Programme (TEFER)

• Produced earthquake and flood risk modeling for the whole of Turkey at ilçe (district) resolution

• Implemented as Turkish Catastrophe Management System (TCMS)

icMap Earthquake generator


52 staff from 14 organisations, including the leading experts on Turkish earthquake risk

• Prof. Aydinoglu, Prof. Erdik & co. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University

• Prof. Barka and Prof. Ansal, Istanbul Technical University

• Prof. Gülkan and Asst. Prof. Selçuk, Middle Eastern Technical University

• General Directorate of Disaster Affairs

• State Institute of Statistics

• Dr Julian Bommer & co., Imperial College

• Dr Spence & co., Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd

• Dr Acar, Zemcka Ltd

• Assoc. Prof. Ulusay, Hacettepe University

• Imagins-TED, Istanbul

• Oracle Corporation Limited


Transparent design process subject to academic and peer review

• Design workshop

• Technical design documents and review

• Research and data collection

• Model and systems development

• Testing and review

• Technical report and model implementation

• Expert review

• Academic paper for Journal of Seismology - peer reviewed

Seismic source zone map


Synthetic earthquake catalogue

Over 1,000 earthquake events with magnitude > 5.5


TCMS uses the latest earthquake modelling developments

• Spectral displacement (HAZUS)

• Non-linear soil amplification

• Explicit use of earthquake duration

• Projected plane earthquake triggers

• 14 Turkish residential building types with fragility curves based on Turkish data

Source: CAR


Projected plane earthquake triggers

Fault rupture plane

Dip angle

Surface rupture

Strike angle

N

Plan viewUsing projected

plane sourcePoint source Line source

Projected plane source

Ground surface

Hypocentre (focus)

Epicentre


For 14 residential building types in 900 geocodes, a unique spectral displacement value was calculated

Demand Curve v Capacity Curve for building type A

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

Spectral Displacement Sd (metres)

Sp

ec

tra

l A

cc

ele

rati

on

Sa

(g

)

Demand Curve

Capacity Curve

ICMPTM

Hazard database

magnitude, Mduration, D

distance, d

geocode, x

Earthquake generator


Source: CAR

FRAGILITY CURVES, Low-rise RC Poor/ TC1LP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Spectral Displacement /m

Slight

Moderate

Extensive

Complete

Percentage ofreconstructioncost

Fragility curves based on Turkish data:Low-rise RC poor seismic design


Fragility curves based on Turkish data: Mid-rise RC buildings

TC1MP Poor seismic design

TC1MG Good seismic design

TC1MRF Retrofitted

Source: CAR

Fragility curves: mid-rise RC buildings, TC1M

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Sd (m)%

Reb

uild

ing

cost

TC1MP

TC1MG

TC1MRF


Buildings database - the ‘portfolio’

• Model that represents Turkish building stock

• Analysis at district and sub-district

• State Institute of Statistics

• Buildings data, census data

• Linked to 14 building types in model

“Earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do”


Turkey Catastrophe Management System (TCMS)

• A market-leading risk assessment system for Turkey

• Coverage: countrywide, modelled at district level

• Assessing the effect of earthquakes for entire country

User-defined hypothetical earthquake scenario generated using icMapTM earthquake generator

Re-runs of historical events

Event based probabilistic loss estimation using the synthetic earthquake catalogue

• Use of Graphical User Interface (GUI) for visualisation

• Mapping functionality

• Embedded with ICMPTM- Willis’ proprietary loss calculation engine


Input - Hazard intensities

Earthquake generator


Input - Portfolio data

Data contains:

•Geocode

•Policy count

•Sum insured

•Building type

Mapping portfolio data using icMapTM


Output - Loss by geocode


Output - Loss exceedance curve


Major earthquake events in the Sea of Marmara region since 1500 according to Parsons et al. (2000)


Magnitudes of major historical earthquakesin the Sea of Marmara

Parsons et al. (2000)Mw Mw Ms

1509 September 10 7.6 7.2 7.2

1556 May 10 6.5-7.0 7.2

1719 May 25 7.6 7.4 7.4

1737 March 6 - 7.0

1754 September 2 7.0 6.8 6.8

1766 May 22 7.2 7.0 7.1

1766 August 5 7.6 7.3 7.4

1850 April 19 6.0-7.0 - 6.1*

1855 February 28 7.0-7.5 7.0 7.1

1855 April 11 6.5-7.0 - 6.3

1857 September 17 6.5-7.0 - 5.4*

1863 November 6 6.4-7.0 - 4.9*

1877 October 13 6.0-7.0 - 5.5*

1894 July 10 7.0 7.2 7.3

Ambraseys & Jackson (2000)Earthquake


Reduced risk in Marmara sea?

making better reinsurance decisions… measuring seismic risk in turkey: latest modelling techniques...

Documents

turkish earthquake risk

car slide

turkish data source

x earthquake generator

earthquake events

tc1m slide

earthquake research

seismic risk