Geopolitical shift in East Asia:Geopolitical shift in East Asia:MidMid‐‐term strategy for foreign policyterm strategy for foreign policyMidMid term strategy for foreign policyterm strategy for foreign policy

Purwokerto, 9 July 2012, y

Dr. Siswo Pramono, LLMDi t f th C t f P li A l i d D l tDirector of the Center of Policy Analysis and Development 

of Asia‐Pacific and Africa RegionsMinistry of Foreign Affairs

Republic of IndonesiaRepublic of Indonesia

This presentation is personal opinion

Economic state of affairs: world income per capita 

Source: Sindo, BPS, IMF

Geopolitical Shift: East Asia and Africa

P t R ki & C t i Shi i Li

New Afro‐Asia AxisPort Ranking & Container Shipping Line

Industry

Energy

Geopolitics of East Asia:

Market and ResourcesASEAN+3• ASEAN+3

• Trilateral summit/FTA?• New Energy Access (SCO, Russ far east, OZ)( )

• Food/water Security

Potential Hotspots:• Korea Peninsula• Korea Peninsula• South China Sea• Indian Ocean• The Pacific

Local Developments:• India-Pakistan rapprochementrapprochement

• North Korea• Myanmar• Darwin

Toward new Africa

Source :The Economist, The World in 2012

Towards a new Africa

Food Security: Africa has 60% f h ld’ l f

African renewal: sharp drop in interstate conflict and war

The way Indonesia should look at Africa The African renaissance:

of the world’s total amount of uncultivated, arable land.Investment: Improving 

in interstate conflict and war. Elections and move towards greater democracy.The African Agenda:

business environment and above average economic growth (2012 top 10 GDP 

The African Agenda: African development initiatives (NEPAD, Inter‐regional free trade etc.). C ti j t i i

g ( pgrowth included 5 African countries). Africa’s total GDP above US$1.5Trillion  

Cooperative projects rising e.g infrastructure  Pan‐Africanism: The vision of African Unity

Trade: Growing middle class with 52 African cities having more than 1 million people

of African Unity.Resistance to neo‐colonialism and outside interference

more than 1 million people each.

(Source: Mckinsey Global Institute: June 2010, FadlNaceroedin)

(source: Fadl Naceroedin, 2012)

How ready is Indonesia ?:  west‐east infrastructure discrepancyTotal GDP: US$ 700 billions

23,5% 10,4%89,6%

Total GDP: US$ 700 billions16th largest economy

9,6% Pull F t

57,6%Pull 

Factor Needed?

Factor Needed?

Needed?

Pull Factor 

Needed?

Pull Factor 

Needed?

How ready is Indonesia ?:  west‐east HRD discrepancy

Striving for Traditional and non‐traditional marketTotal trade in January‐May 2010 and 2011

d l kTraditional market Non‐traditional market

Strategy: Economic diplomacy to support economic development

Bilateral Strategic partnership• Main economic and trade 

partners, and main source of capital inflow;capital inflow; 

• Main source of capacity building in the realms of defense, security, good governance, economic institution, education, scienceinstitution, education, science and technology;

• Partners in the cooperation to address global issues

Regional market access:• ASEAN (GMS)

+

• Trilateral FTA• SCO• EU• NAFTA• SADC• Mercosur• SAARC

Strategy: Bilateral strategic partnership + regional market accessBilateral strategic partnership + regional market access

Case study:Case study:Percentage of budget of RI’s embassies in Africa allocated for main task and function 

No Mission Total (%) Economic Diplomacy  

Protection of Citizen (%)

Information and Culture (%)

Politic and Security (%)

(%)1 Aljazair/Alger 100 70.37                29.63                         ‐                                 ‐                         2 Kenya/Nairobi 100 39.05                20.78                         13.20                            26.96                    3 Madagaskar/Antananarivo 100 61 86 15 46 22 683 Madagaskar/Antananarivo 100 61.86                15.46                         22.68                           4 Mozambik/Maputo 100 73.54                26.46                         ‐                                 ‐                         5 Namibia/Windhoek 100 21.45                22.20                         22.04                            34.31                    6 Nigeria/Abuja 100 46.15 5.13 35.90 12.826 Nigeria/Abuja 100 46.15                5.13                            35.90                            12.82                    7 Sudan/Khartoum* 100 44.30                15.66                         16.72                            23.32                    8 Tanzania/Dar Es Salaam 100 52.04                28.18                         19.78                            ‐                         9 Tunisia/Tunis 100 33.25                16.87                         37.41                            12.47                    10 Zimbabwe/Harare 100 43.20                16.76                         19.66                            20.37                    

Dr. Siswo Pramono, LLMDirector of the Center of Policy Analysis and Development 

for Asia‐Pacific and Africa RegionsMinistry of Foreign AffairsRepublic of Indonesia