Middle East Committee – The Syrian Civil War

Background & Causes:

The Syrian civil war is an ongoing conflict that involves many different countries, rebel forces and Jihadist groups.

The origins of the war can be traced back to the ‘Arab Spring’ in 2011. This was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Middle East. Initially starting with protests in Tunisia, many Middle Eastern civilians rose up in response to oppressive, authoritative and dictatorial regimes. In addition, low standards of living drove protests. Social media was a major driving force behind the swift spread of revolutions as new protests appeared in response to success stories shared from those taking place elsewhere.

The civil uprising in Syria began in January 2011 as a series of peaceful protests in major cities across the nation with expanded civil rights, democratic reforms and the resignation of President Bashar-al-Assad being common goals. In addition, the protests were caused by socioeconomic factors such as high rates of unemployment and an intense drought. However, the situation rose to a new level with major unrest on 15 March triggered by the torture of 15 children from prominent families in Daara who wrote anti-Government graffiti in the city. A month later, a 13 year old boy called Hamza Al-Khateeb was detained during a protest and was tortured and killed under the custody of the Syrian Government.

However, by the end of April, President Assad repressed the protests through the use of brutal force by deploying numerous military troops on the ground. Security forces responded harshly, conducting mass arrests and sometimes firing on demonstrators. Assad also responded with harsh security clampdowns and censorship. The regime’s response had an important sectarian/prejudiced dimension – many of the protestors belonged to the country’s Sunni majority, while the ruling Assad family were members of the country’s Shia Alawite minority. Alawites dominated the security forces and the irregular militias that carried out some of the worst violence against protesters and suspected opponents of the regime.

On 31 July, Syrian army tanks stormed several cities and killed at least 136 people. Assad’s goal was to turn the broad based protest movement which he was losing into a military conflict where his control of the army would allow him to ‘kill’ his way to victory. By the end of the summer, Syria’s domestic players, regional neighbours and major global powers had split into pro- and anti-Assad divisions. Defectors from the Syrian army and Assad’s regime formed a large, organised militia called the Free Syrian Army and that became a major militant opposition group with the aim of securing a more democratic and less authoritative government. The situation had gradually transformed from peaceful protests to civil uprisings to an armed rebellion and by January 2012 a full-scale civil war.

Nations involved and motives:

Since 2011, the Syrian conflict has not ended. Many international powers are involved however each country has different aims.

There are 3 major motives amongst nations in the Syrian conflict:

Violence between Syrian government and opposition forces

Coalition efforts to defeat ISIS (largely successful) Military operations against Syrian Kurds by Turkish forces

Forces supporting Assad’s regime Forces opposing Assad’s regimeSyrian Armed Forces RussiaIran

Free Syrian Army, National CoalitionTurkeySaudi ArabiaUSA, UK, FranceKurdish Forces ISIS & other Jihadist groups

RussiaRussia has been one of Assad’s most important international backers. It has vetoed UN resolutions critical of Assad’s regime and has continued to supply weapons to the Syrian military despite international criticism. Moscow wants to protect a key naval facility in the Syrian port of Tartous and has forces at an air base in Latakia. In September 2015, Russia launched a series of long air strikes against rebel groups which was crucial in turning the tide of the war in Assad’s favour.

IranIran is believed to be spending billions of dollars each year to assist President Assad’s government. They have provided military advisors, weapons, lines of credit and oil transfers. Iran’s alliance with Syria, dating back to 1980, is critical in sustaining its Middle East regional ambitions such as transporting weaponry and supplies to its proxy militias in Lebanon and Gaza. The Iranian government also saw the revolt against Assad as a threat to their own regime.

The Islamic State (ISIS)By mid-2012, the Syrian al-Qaeda franchise, Jabhat al-Nusra, had allied with some relatively moderate rebels and established themselves as one of the most effective anti-Assad fighting forces. However, in response to a series of terrorist attacks coordinated by ISIS across Europe in 2015, the US, UK, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other international powers sought to defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria and have been largely successful with ISIS losing nearly all its territory. The presence of ISIS has been a complex dimension in the crisis.

Kurdish Forces

The Kurds are the 4th largest ethnic minority in the Middle East and the largest ethnic minority in the world without a country. The Kurds inhabit a region comprising of western Turkey, eastern Iran and northern Iraq and Syria. Their aims in the conflict is to secure an independent region (‘Kurdistan’) and they’ve been supported by the US in order to attack ISIS. Even though they’re anti-Assad, Turkey has invaded and attacked the Kurdish controlled regions in northern Syria as they don’t want a strong Kurdish military presence near their border (as Turkey has been preventing the independence of Kurds for over 50 years). This has brought another complex dimension into the conflict.

TurkeyTurkey has heavily criticised President Assad from the start of the conflict; it is a key military and financial supporter of Syrian opposition groups. In July 2015, Turkey agreed to let the US-led coalition against ISIS to use its air bases for strikes on Syria after an IS bomb. However, Turkey have also been fighting (anti-Assad) Kurdish forces in Northern Syria in order to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish region near the Turkish border. Therefore Turkey’s aims in the Syrian conflict are mixed; it wants to overturn Assad’s regime but also defeat Kurdish Forces in northern Syria. Turkey has also had the burden of hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees.

Saudi ArabiaRiyadh is a major provider of military and financial assistance to several rebel groups. They also agreed to take part in the US-led coalition air campaign against IS in Syria, concerned by the group’s advances. Saudi Arabia are particularly interested in steering the political course of the Middle East and are embroiled in a sort of cold war with Iran. They believe that President Assad must hand over power to a transitional administration or be removed by force.

USAThe US has accused President Assad of responsibility for widespread atrocities but agrees on the need for a negotiated settlement to end the war and the formation of a transitional administration. The US provides military assistance to ‘moderate rebels’ and supports Syria’s National Coalition – the main opposition alliance. The US has also carried out air strikes on IS (which are anti-Assad) since 2014 but it has generally avoided attacks that may benefit Assad’s forces or intervened in battles between him and the rebels. So the US has 2 main aims: assisting anti-Assad moderate rebel forces and defeating ISIS (even though it’s anti-Assad). It is not yet clear the position that Joe Biden takes in the crisis, but the US is hoping for a conclusion to the conflict soon.

Overall, the pro-Assad government forces have an advantage in that they are united in their aims of defeating all rebel groups. However, the anti-Assad forces have divided aims in the conflict: as well as defeating Assad’s regime, most nations have fought ISIS and terrorist groups and Turkey, for example, has fought the Kurdish forces too. A combination of different aims from different countries is what has made the war last such a long time.

Casualties and Refugee Crisis:

Over the 9 years of civil war, there have been huge impacts on Syrian civilians – millions have been displaced or have fled the country as refugees.

Estimates vary but as of December 2020 up to 593,000 people are thought to have died due to the Syrian Civil War

Some suggest that up to 227,000 civilians have been killed since March 2011 There are approximately 5.6 million registered Syrian refugees and another 6.2

million civilians internally displaced Syrian refugees make up nearly 1/3 of refugees worldwide A large proportion of refugees have fled to Turkey (3.6m), Lebanon (915k), Jordan

(656k). Some have made the difficult journey to Europe. Only 10-15% of refugees are staying in refugee camps – many of the rest are staying

in cities or villages

Current situation:

These maps give an indication as to which areas are controlled by the Government and which areas are controlled by rebel forces. The Government has seized control of a large proportion of the country especially due to successful air strikes from 2013-2016.

On 5 March 2020, Russia and Turkey agreed on a ceasefire in order to focus on preventing the Coronavirus pandemic in Syria. Many believe that the civil war is drawing to a close, and some even claim it is over with Assad controlling a great proportion of the nation. However, the rebels still have a major stronghold in Idlib. The effort to defeat ISIS over the last 5-7 years has been largely successful but there are still small regions under ISIS control (or other Jihadist factions). Overall currently, there has been military activity, especially in the Aleppo and Idlib regions, but nothing compared to previous years due to the pandemic. This means that it is an important time to consider the future of Syria from securing peace to rebuilding the nation.

Key points to consider:

Syria has been declared the second least peaceful country in the world (before Afghanistan) and so it is essential to consider how long-term stability can be achieved in the region. The following needs to be considered to ensure long-term peace, security, stability and prosperity in Syria:

An agreeable solution needs to be drafted to officially end the war soon Ensuring adequate food, water, shelter and supplies to Syrian civilians displaced

from their homes or in refugee camps in Syria or abroad A plan economically on how to rebuild Syria from almost a decade of conflict

The following questions need to be explored: How can we end the war quickly once the COVID-19 pandemic is controlled? Syrian refugee crisis – how can refugees (and internally displaced Syrians) be

adequately provided? Economic concerns – how can we re-build Syria effectively? Political concerns – how can we prevent another civil war from occurring? Overall long-term – how can we ensure long-term peace and security in Syria?

Countries with a particular interest:

Syria, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, USA, UK, France, Jordan, Lebanon

As well as deciding whether your country supports or condemns Assad’s government, you must also consider whether other aims your country has had in the conflict (most notably aims against ISIS and Kurdish forces). Remember that a country not politically involved in this conflict is equally important in the committee discussions.

Further Research:

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/insights/28041/the-syria-civil-war-might-be-ending-but-the-crisis-will-live-on#:~:text=The%20fighting%20is%20not%20yet,remaining%20outside%20of%20government%20control.&text=The%20estimated%20death%20toll%20is,the%20country's%20population%20was%20displaced.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/syrian-war-nine-year-anniversary-a4387781.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/world/middleeast/syria-economy-assad-makhlouf.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cg41ylwvggnt/syrian-civil-war

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/syria

Nice clips worth watching:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFpanWNgfQY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9vko8Y8yfI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBOeamMqiQ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ICaJOYjuVs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBOeamMqiQ4