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M. Grunow M. Grunow Technical University of Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Supply Network Planning and Advanced Planning Systems Advanced Planning Systems H.-O. Günther H.-O. Günther Technical University Technical University of Berlin, Germany of Berlin, Germany

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Page 1: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

M. GrunowM. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Technical University of Denmark,

CopenhagenCopenhagen

National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007

Supply Network Planning andSupply Network Planning and

Advanced Planning SystemsAdvanced Planning Systems

H.-O. GüntherH.-O. GüntherTechnical University of Berlin, Technical University of Berlin,

GermanyGermany

Page 2: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 3: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management

www.wikipedia.org:

“The primary objective of supply chain management is to fulfill customer demands through the most efficient use of resources.“

Page 4: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

www.wikipedia.org:

“A supply chain, logistics network, or supply network is a coordinated system ...

… of entities, activities, information and resources involved in moving a product or service from supplier to customer.“

Supply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management

Page 5: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

OutlineOutline

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 6: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Generations of PPC softwareGenerations of PPC software

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

• Predecessors of PPC systems Focus on inventory control Basic order processing

• Material requirements planning (MRP) Bill of material files Calculation of net requirements

• Manufacturing resources planning (MRP II) Enhanced planning functions Integration of financial accounting and management functions

• Integrated systems CIM: Integration of manufacturing ERP systems covering the whole enterprise

• Advanced Planning and Scheduling systems Integration into supply chain management concept Use of true optimization techniques

Page 7: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Advanced Planning Systems (APS)Advanced Planning Systems (APS)

APS modulesAPS modules

Strategic Network Design

Supply Network Planning

DemandPlanning

External Procurement

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Transportation Planning /

Vehicle Scheduling

Order Fulfilment ATP / CTP

Page 8: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Strategic Network Design

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Supply Network Planning

long-term

mid-term

short-term

Industrial case studiesIndustrial case studies

Case 1: Global network design for the production of

electrical components

Case 2: Multi-site production-distribution

planning in the chemical industry

Case 3: Characteristics

dependent planning in the

consumer goods industry

Case 4: Value chain management

Page 9: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 10: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Case 1: Global network designCase 1: Global network design

Strategic Network Design

DemandPlanning

External Procurement

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Transportation Planning /

Vehicle Scheduling

Supply Network Planning

long-term

mid-term

short-term Order FulfilmentATP / CTP

Case 1: Global network design for the production of

electrical components

Grunow, M., Günther, H.O., Burdenik, H., Alting, L.:Evolving production network structures.CIRP Annals (to appear)

Page 11: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Strategic network designStrategic network design

Strategic Network Design

Mathematical methods Heuristics, MILP, Clustering techniques

Determination of transportation links

Assignment of locations to each other e.g. customers to DCs

Decisions

Number of plants and DCs

Assignment of products to plants

Locations and capacities

Page 12: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

APS based on generic model

formulations provide limited support for strategic network

design.

Case 1: InsightsCase 1: Insights

Redesign of global network also affects the organizational structure and

business processes.Potential cost

savings achieved through quantitative

modeling underestimated by decision makers

(engineers).

Page 13: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

ProductsProducts

3 Levels Vacuum interrupters

Kits (for local content and taxation reasons)

Switches (usually containing 3 vacuum interrupters)

Page 14: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply networkSupply network

Current centralized network Production sites at

Head production centers (produce vacuum interrupters): GER (with R&D) and CHINA 1

USA, INDIA, CHINA 2

MEX, BRA (from kits only)

Page 15: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply networkSupply network

Future network

Reduced production complexity at head production centers Increased flexibility through networked supply and distribution

Reduced production and logistics costs

Page 16: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply networkSupply network

Product relocation depends on Product maturity

new products at sites with R&D department

Personnel

required for product relocation (to qualify the new production facility for the production of the new products).

Complexity and flexibility Diversity of products at facility increases scheduling complexity Products at multiple facilities increase network complexity Production close to customer markets Exchange rate risks and taxation

Production capacities

test runs and ramp-up of new products

Page 17: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply networkSupply network

Product relocation depends on Product maturity

new products at sites with R&D department

Personnel

required for product relocation (to qualify the new production facility for the production of the new products).

Complexity and flexibility Diversity of products at facility increases scheduling complexity Products at multiple facilities increases network complexity Production close to customer markets Exchange rate risks and taxation

Production capacities

test runs and ramp-up of new products

Error !Not covered !

Standard commercial APS

Page 18: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

MILP optimization modelMILP optimization model

1

,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,,

)1/(1

t

t

f gtfgtfg

ftftf

k hpctkpchpck

kpctkpchpckkpchpck

i hpctpchpci

pctpchpcipchpci

p f ctcfptcfptcfp

ptfp

ffp

ir

zFCwIC

DCCS

DCCS

CDSCVC

Min

Minimization of the relevant production and logistics costs variable manufacturing costs (including material and personnel) costs for shipments to customers (+ customs duty) costs for shipments of intermediates and kits from head production

centers to other facilities in the network investment costs required for the expansion of the production

capacities for final products costs associated with the complexity in a facility net present value calculation

Page 19: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

MILP optimization modelMILP optimization model

Demand

Production

(final products)

tcpf

tcfp D ,,,,,

c

tcfstfs ,,,,,

kpc

tkpchpckc

tchpckthpck ,,,,,,,,

KSp

thpcppipc

tpchpcic

tchpcithpci A ,,,,,,,,,,,

(kits)

(intermediates)

Shipment of intermediates

tkpcshpc

tkpchpck ,,,,,

s

tpcssihpc

tpchpci A ,,,,,,

(kits)

(intermediates)

Page 20: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

MILP optimization modelMILP optimization model

Capacities

(final product capacity incl. expansions, here: testing equipment)

(intermediates capacity)

t

ttfftf

stfs wECS

1',,,,

ft

tf FEw ,

tf

tf NEw ,

thpcithpci CI ,,,,

thpck

thpck CK ,,,

(no. of expansions per facility)

(no. of expansions in network per perioddue to personnel requirements, budget constraints)

(kit capacity)

Page 21: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

MILP optimization modelMILP optimization model

Relocation

(continuous-binary production variables)

(number of relocations per facility and period, due to capacity requirements for test runs and ramp-ups)

(relocation-production)

(number of total relocations per period, due to personnel requirements)

(ban on relocation of products in R&D phase)

tfsfftftfs xEVFECS ,,,,,

1

0',,,,,,

t

ttfstfstfs xxy

Nys f

tfs ,,

fs

tfs By ,,

01

,, f

TR

ttfs

s

y

M

Page 22: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

MILP optimization modelMILP optimization model

Complexity

(production of group)

(flexibility, limitation of exchange risks, demonstration of goodwill, marketing)

(network complexity)

(facility complexity)

gSs

tfstfg xMz ,,,,

tg f

tfg CNz ,,

tfg

tfg CFz ,,,

p p Cc

tcptptrFf

tfptp

rr

DLVLSLV ,,,,,,,

Local production

Page 23: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

1

,,

,,,,,,,

,,,

,,,,,

,,,,

,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,

,,

)1/(1)_

)___(

(

tf

ff g

tfg

ftftfpchpcpfp

pchpcptpchpcp

cfpfpcfp

cfppchpcp

tpchpcppchpcp

cfpcfptcfptfp

fpfp

t

itcoefficiencomplexity

initgroupgrproducefacility

ECIIDSMCTR

DSMCTRISSC

DSSCpVMCMin

MILP optimization modelMILP optimization model

Advantages of optimization models Consideration of interdependencies between entities in the SC.

Quick and easy evaluation of scenarios

Provide understandable quantitative results (e.g. cost savings) as basis for final management decisions.

Manager: „Sometimes we make strategic

SND decisions very intuitively.“

Page 24: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Exemplary resultsExemplary results

Scenarios Current business plan Scenario 1: Actual configuration with optimized production/distribution Scenario 2: Reassignment of products with fixed capacity Scenario 3: Reassignment of products with capacity adjustments

Results Savings in production costs

overcompensate additional logistics costs.

Shift of production volumes and products from Germany to China

Increased capacity in Mexico and China

Direct manufacturing costs

Plan Szenario 1 Szenario 2 Szenario 3 Plan Szenario 1 Szenario 2 Szenario 3 Plan Szenario 1 Szenario 2 Szenario 3

2008 2009 2010

Plan Szenario 1 Szenario 2 Szenario 3 Plan Szenario 1 Szenario 2 Szenario 3 Plan Szenario 1 Szenario 2 Szenario 3

2008 2009 2010

Page 25: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 26: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Case 2: Case 2: Supply network planningSupply network planning

Strategic Network Design

DemandPlanning

External Procurement

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Transportation Planning /

Vehicle Scheduling

Supply Network Planning

long-term

mid-term

short-term Order FulfilmentATP / CTP

Case 2: Multi-site production-distribution

planning in the chemical industry

Page 27: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply Network Planning

Supply network planningSupply network planning

Consideration of production, transportation, and handling capacities as hard constraints

Decisions

Allocation of production quantities between plants

Smoothing out seasonal cycles in demand

Supply from the plants to DCs and from the DCs to customers

Mathematical methods LP and MILP, heuristics

Consideration of demand, due dates, and safety stocks as soft constraints

Page 28: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Considerable cost savings achieved

through application of optimization

model.

Case 2: InsightsCase 2: Insights

Generic model formulations embedded in SNP modules of APS

do not consider application-specific

features.

High degree of acceptance by management.

Page 29: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

DEGUSSA AG, Düsseldorf, Germany

Company profileCompany profile

World largest producer of special chemicals

Subsidiaries in all continents

46.000 employees / 300 plants worldwide

Turnover in 2005: 11,800 billion €

Page 30: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Production process Carbon BlackProduction process Carbon Black

Production volume: several 100.000 t per annum

100 product specifications

Continuous production process

Feed A

Feed B

Feed C

Process Mainproduct Silo

Gas

Trans-formation

Energy

Silo Silo

Page 31: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Implementation of an APSImplementation of an APS

Company negotiates annual volumes with key customers.

Forecasting the Forecasting the period distribution period distribution of annual demandof annual demand

Forecasting the Forecasting the period distribution period distribution of annual demandof annual demand

Allocation of Allocation of customer demands customer demands to production sitesto production sites Customers request

deliveries upon short notice.

Page 32: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Demand planningDemand planning

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Month

t

Observed demand

Forecast incl. seasonality

1997 1998 1999

Adaptation of Winters forecasting technique

Considerably increased forecast accuracy

Forecast represents network-wide commitment

Page 33: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Forecasting the Forecasting the period distribution period distribution of annual demandof annual demand

Allocation of Allocation of customer demands customer demands to production sitesto production sites

Allocation of Allocation of customer demands customer demands to production sitesto production sites

Decisions in supply network planningDecisions in supply network planning

Transportation volumes between production sites and customers

Production volume in the production sites and at each production train

Generation of energy from side-products

Page 34: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Objectives in Supply Network PlanningObjectives in Supply Network Planning

Transportation costsTransportation costs(Distance, carrier)(Distance, carrier)

Inventory costsInventory costs

t,1Train,GER,pPC

t,2Train,GER,pPC

t,3Train,GER,pPC

t,1Train,RSA,pPC

t,2Train,RSA,pPC

Production costsProduction costs(site, train)(site, train)

(negative) energy refund(negative) energy refund

Minimization ofMinimization ofMinimization ofMinimization of

Page 35: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Customer DemandCustomer Demand

Limited substitutability of products Delivery only from sites, which have a

customer approval for the product

A customer demand may only be covered by deliveries from a limited number of sites

vpctvpcASss

tvpcs CDAT ,,,,,}p) c,,s(|{

,,,,

p,c,sv,p,ct,v,p,c,s BCDT

Selected constraints: DistributionSelected constraints: Distribution

Page 36: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Selected constraints: EnergySelected constraints: Energy

Energy Transformation capacity of the sites

Transformation

tss

sTRstrPp

tpstrspstrs ATMaxCPPVCP ,

)()(,

,),(,),(,

Page 37: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Graphical user interface

User and scenario administration

Solver(CPLEX)

MILPmodels(OPL)

CO

M-

Op

tio

n

SQL

DataSQL

Data base OPL Studio

Optimization software architectureOptimization software architecture

Page 38: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Application of the optimization modelApplication of the optimization model

Currently numerous managers are using the tool for operative planning.

Rolled out in Europe, US and Asia.

Estimated financial benefitper year from supply network planning exceeded project costs by far.

Scenario mode is used extensively, e.g., for capacity decisions, evaluation of approvals and of the profitability of energy transformation.

Further benefits arise from improved supply network design.

Page 39: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Performance improvement in optimizationPerformance improvement in optimization

Average algorithmic improvement 1988 2001

Estimated machine improvement 1988 2003: 800 x Net improvement for LP problems 1988 today: ~2,000,000 x

Bixby, B., Solving real-world linear programs: a decade and more of progress. Operations Research, 50 (2002), pp. 3-15

Page 40: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 41: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Case 3: Case 3: Production planning / Production planning / detailed schedulingdetailed scheduling

Strategic Network Design

DemandPlanning

External Procurement

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Transportation Planning /

Vehicle Scheduling

Supply Network Planning

long-term

mid-term

short-term Order FulfilmentATP / CTP

Case 3: Characteristics

dependent planning in the consumer goods industry

Günther H.O., Grunow, M., Neuhaus, U.:Realizing block planning concepts in make-and-pack production using MILP modelling and SAP APO. IJPR (2006), 3711-3726

Lütke Entrup, M., Günther, H.O., van Beek, P., Grunow, M., Seiler, T., MILP approaches to shelf life integrated planning and scheduling in yogurt production. IJPR (2005), 5071-5100

Page 42: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Production planning / detailed schedulingProduction planning / detailed scheduling

Lot-sizing, sequencing, and procurement proposals

Decisions Generation of production orders

Allocation of resources according to a finite scheduling policy

Mathematical methods Genetic algorithms

Consideration of the availability of resources as hard constraints

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Application specific algorithms

Consideration of due dates, time windows etc. as soft constraints

Constraint programming

Rules and heuristics

Page 43: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Development of a mathematical

modelling approach based on human expertise.

Case 3: InsightsCase 3: Insights

Efficient support by characteristic based planning tool of APS

module.

High performance of MILP model enables

reactive planning mode.

Page 44: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Block planning conceptBlock planning concept

Given a natural sequence of set-ups (e.g. light to dark)

Decisions on cyclic production patterns (i.e. lot sizes)

Minimizing inventory and set-up costs

Block 1 Block 4Block 3Block 2

Production cycle

Page 45: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

1

4 weeks

Production cycle

2 3 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Setup families

time

Production order Major setup

Production of hair dyes

Numerical experimentsNumerical experiments

Page 46: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

time4 weeks 8 weeks 12 weeks

...

Period 1 Period 3Period 2 ...

SolutionSolution

MILP model: ILOG OPL Studio and CPLEX 7.0MILP model: ILOG OPL Studio and CPLEX 7.0

Characteristic dependent planning of SAP APO 3.1Characteristic dependent planning of SAP APO 3.1

Setup families

1

4 weeks

Production cycle

2 3 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Production order Major setup

Production of hair dyes

Numerical experimentsNumerical experiments

Page 47: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Master data

No. of master data records

With CDP Without CDP

Locations 1 1

PPMs 30 56

Resources 14 14

Products 37 140

Total 84 213

No

. of

Products 26

Periods 6

Production orders 156

Variables 780

Constraints 786

CPU time 0.25

APO implementation MILP block planning model

Recuced data volume Small CPU times

• Combination of characteristics dependent planning and MILP modelling seems appealing

Numerical experimentsNumerical experiments

Page 48: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 49: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Case 4: Value chain management

Case 4: Value chain managementCase 4: Value chain management

Strategic Network Design

DemandPlanning

External Procurement

Production Planning / Detailed

Scheduling

Transportation Planning /

Vehicle Scheduling

Supply Network Planning

long-term

mid-term

short-term Order FulfilmentATP / CTP

SCM is usually understood as a “coordinated system … involved in

moving a product or service from supplier to customer.“

Page 50: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Dynamic spot pricing for sales and procurement makes a business unit

highly profitable.

Coordinated decision making along the

entire supply chain appears to be very

effective.

Case 4: InsightsCase 4: Insights

Change of paradigm from “supply chain

management” to “value chain management”?

Page 51: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Industrial case study

Sales model

Distribution model

Numerical experiments

Production model

Procurement model

Page 52: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Supply chainSupply chain

Europe

China

Page 53: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Planning problemPlanning problem

• Standard products with defined quality

• Price is the key buying criterion

• Considerable sales price and demand volatility

• Increasing raw material costs due to higher crude oil prices

Chemical commodities

Planning problem

• Operational planning for 6-12 months

• Coordination of sales, production, procurement and distribution activities for the entire company-internal value chain

Page 54: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Value chain networkValue chain network

Procurement locations

Production location

Production location

Sales locations

suppliers’value chain

Sales

company-internal value chain network

Procure-ment

Prod-uction

Distribu-tion

Sales

customers’ value chain

Procure-ment

financial flowmaterial flow information exchange

Sales locations

Procurement locations

Distribution locations

Transportation lanes

Page 55: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Spot sales opportunity

Decision dependenciesDecision dependenciesScenario: Spot sales opportunitiesScenario: Spot sales opportunities

Pipeline inventory?

Stocks?

Production capacity?

Production mode?

Costs?

Raw material availability?

Costs?Transportation capacity?

Sales locationsSales

locations

Productionlocations

Procurementlocations

Distribution locations

Page 56: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Oversupply

Decision dependenciesDecision dependenciesScenario: Oversupply at production locationScenario: Oversupply at production location

Sales locationsSales

locations

Productionlocations

Procurementlocations

Distribution locations

Push spot sales

Production mode?

Inventory allocation?

Delay contract procurement?

Page 57: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Industrial case study

Sales model

Distribution model

Numerical experiments

Production model

Procurement model

Page 58: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Sales available total supply

Demand

€/t €/t €/t

€/t

€/t €/t

push

€/t

€/t-spot

sales price

spot sales quantity

€/t

cut

contractdemand price

contractdemand quantity

spot demand quantity

spot demand price

1 2 3 Periods

contractsales quantity

contract sales price €/t €/t€/t

- - -

1 2 3 Periods

Contract demand needs to be fulfilled, spot demand has bid character and is fulfilled depending on supply and profitability.

• Average spot sales price increases

• Reduced production volume

• Savings in raw material consumption• Reduced spot procurement

• Average spot sales price decreases

• Reduced inventories

• Efficient use of contract procurement quantities

• Change of production mode (recipe)

Contract and spot demandContract and spot demand

Page 59: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Price-quantity function

100

100

300

93.3

400

90

600

83.3

0

100

0 300 600Cum. quantity [t]

Price [€/t]

Price-quantity-share function

17%

120%

50%

112%

67%

108%

100%

100%

0%

100%

0% 50% 100%

Cum. quantity share [%]

[%]

Priceshare

Algorithm steps Example

Customer [Unit] A B C D

Quantity [t] 100 200 100 200

1. List individual customer price and quantity

forecasts for product, sales location and

period

Price [€/t] 100 90 80 70

2. Sort forecasts by price and determine rank → Rank 1. 2. 3. 4.

3. Determine cumulated quantity for rank → Quantity [t] 100 300 400 600

4. Determine average price for rank → Ø Price [€/t] 100 93.3 90 83.3

5. Determine cumulated quantity share of rank → Quantity [%] 17 50 67 100

6. Determine average price share of rank → Price [%] 120 112 108 100

7. Conduct linear regression for shares → Regression y = -0.2407 x + 1.2408

8. Determine elasticity from regression → Elasticity 2407.0Ssplt

Algorithm steps Example

Customer [Unit] A B C D

Quantity [t] 100 200 100 200

1. List individual customer price and quantity

forecasts for product, sales location and

period

Price [€/t] 100 90 80 70

2. Sort forecasts by price and determine rank → Rank 1. 2. 3. 4.

3. Determine cumulated quantity for rank → Quantity [t] 100 300 400 600

4. Determine average price for rank → Ø Price [€/t] 100 93.3 90 83.3

5. Determine cumulated quantity share of rank → Quantity [%] 17 50 67 100

6. Determine average price share of rank → Price [%] 120 112 108 100

7. Conduct linear regression for shares → Regression y = -0.2407 x + 1.2408

8. Determine elasticity from regression → Elasticity 2407.0Ssplt

Linear price-quantity functionLinear price-quantity functionfor each product, sales location and periodfor each product, sales location and period

Page 60: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Quadratic turnover functionQuadratic turnover function

sp

ox

( )p x

Price-quantity function

Average spot price

Cumulated spot sales quantity

x

minx maxx

Turnover function

x

ox

( )p x x

Cumulated spot sales quantity

Spot sales turnover

minxmaxx

Page 61: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Cumulated spot sales quantity

Price-quantity function

ox

( )p x

Average spot sales price

sp

Spot sales quantity

Spot sales

price

x

minx maxx

Piecewise linear approximationPiecewise linear approximation

Turnover approximation

actual turnover curve

Cumulated spot sales quantity

x

( )p x x

Spot sales turnover

Spot sales quantity

minx maxx

ox

Page 62: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Sales locationsDecisions for p,l and t

spot sales quantitySspltx

total sales quantitySpltx

Ssplty spot sales turnover

Input for p,l and t

contract demand quantityScpltq

Distribution locations,SsSspltpltX X min. and max. spot sales

Distribution locations

Constraints of the sales model (1)Constraints of the sales model (1)

• Total sales quantity equals the sum of spot and contract sales quantity.

• Boundaries for spot sales quantities

Scplt

Ssplt

Splt qxx { , } Sp l PL Tt;

Ssplt

Ssplt

Ssplt XxX { , } Sp l PL Tt;

Product-sales location combination

, Sp l PL

DSpltx

Page 63: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

• Linear approximation of spot sales quantities and spot sales turnover

Constraints of the sales model (2)Constraints of the sales model (2)

1

1

NSs Ssplt jplt

j

y y

{ , } Sp l PL Tt;

Ss Ss Ssjplt jplt jplty x { , } Sp l PL 1.. 1j N Tt; ;

1

1

NSs Ssplt jplt

j

x x

{ , } Sp l PL Tt;

1,Ss Ss Ssjplt iplt i pltx q q { , } Sp l PL Tt; ;1ijNi ..j 1 N 1 1i; ; ;

Page 64: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Industrial case study

Sales model

Distribution model

Numerical experiments

Production model

Procurement model

Page 65: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Decisions for p and t

transportation quantity received via e

Dpetx

Input for p,l and e

,D Dpe peLT UT min. and max. transportation

quantity for p on e

Constraints of the distribution model (1)Constraints of the distribution model (1)

• Transportation quantities are limited for each lane.

• Transportation quantities are limited for each lane and product.

Spltx sales quantity

Product-distribution location combination

, Dp l PL

Transportation lane: e EProduct-transportation

lane combination

, Dp e PE

transportation quantity sent via e with lead time zero

Dpetx

transportation quantity sent via e with lead time one

Dpetx

inventory level at location lDplty

min. and max. transportation quantity on e,D D

e eLT UT

,D Dplt pltLI UI min. and max. inventory

level for p at l in t

Sales locations

, D

D D De pet e

p e PE

LT x UT

,e E t T

D D Dpe pet peLT x UT , ,Dp e PE t T

Page 66: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Constraints of the distribution model (2)Constraints of the distribution model (2)

Decisions for p and t

transportation quantity received via e

Dpetx

Input for p,l and e

,D Dpe peLT UT min. and max. transportation

quantity for p on e

Spltx sales quantity

Product-distribution location combination

, Dp l PL

Transportation lane: e EProduct-transportation

lane combination

, Dp e PE

transportation quantity sent via e with lead time zero

Dpetx

transportation quantity sent via e with lead time one

Dpetx

inventory level at location lDplty

min. and max. transportation quantity on e,D D

e eLT UT

,D Dplt pltLI UI min. and max. inventory level

for p at l in t

Sales locations

• Limited inventory for each product and location

• Balancing incoming and outgoing material flows

D D Dpl plt plLI y UI , ,Dp l PL t T

, 1 , 1

0 1D D Dpl pl pl

D D D D Dplt pl t pet pet pe t

e R e S e S

y y x x x

, ,Dp l PL t T

• Sales and distribution balance

Dpl

D Spet plt

e S

x x

, ,Sp l PL t T

Page 67: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Industrial case study

Sales model

Distribution model

Numerical experiments

Production model

Procurement model

Page 68: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Production siteProduction site

P4

process group 1 process group 2

Line 1

Period 1 Period 2

Line 2

carry-over process group

change-over processsequence-dependent

processes withinprocess group

P1

P5

P2 P3

P4 P6P7

P1

Idle

Operational conditions

• Equipment continuously operated except for planned maintenance

• Minimum utilization rate

• Raw material consumption depends on processing mode (throughput speed)

• Processes may have multiple outputs with flexible output rates

• At most one change-over between process groups per period

Page 69: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Production locations Decisions for r,l and t

quantity of process sPrlstx

operating time of group gPrlgtY

Prlsty operating time of process s

Input for r,l

operating hours in tPrltH

Distribution locations,P Prls rlsLQ UQ min. and max. output rate

Constraints of the production model (1)Constraints of the production model (1)related to resourcesrelated to resources

• Allocation of operating time among processes in a group

• Output variation of process groups

Pg

P Prlgt rlst

s S

Y y

, , , ,P Plr l RL r g RG t T

• Continuous operation of equipment

' '

','

Pl

P P P Prlgt rlg g rlg gt rlt

g Gr g RGg g

Y C H

, ,Pr l RL t T

P P P P Prls rlst rlst rls rlstLQ y x UQ y , , , ,P P

lr l RL r g RG t T

, Pr l RL

Resources , Plr g RG

Page 70: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Production locations Decisions for r,l,g and t

quantity of process groupPrlgtX

change-over from g to g’'Prlg gt

Prlgt setup state at the end of t

Input for r,l,g

Change-over time from g to g’'Prlg gC

Constraints of the production model (2)Constraints of the production model (2)related to change-oversrelated to change-overs

• At most one change-over between groups per period

• Start of campaign depends on setup state

• Setup state at the end of a period

, Pr l RL

Change-over , Plr g RG

'

, , ''

1P Pl l

rlg gt

r g RG r g RGg g

, ,Pr l RL t T

,

1Pl

Prlgt

r g RG

, ,Pr l RL t T

'

, ''

( )Pl

P P Prlgt rlgt rlg gt

r g RGg g

X B

, , , ,P Plr l RL r g RG t T

Page 71: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Raw material consumptionRaw material consumption

Raw material recipe function

Production utilization

Inputquantity

Raw material

Outputproduct

Outputquantity

Resource

RecipefactorMaximum capacity

Minimum utilization Linear recipe

Variable prod. costs

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Utilization

Page 72: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Production locations

Decisions for p,l and t

input quantityPinpltx

output quantityPoutpltx

Input for p,r,l,s

Constraints of the production model (3)Constraints of the production model (3)related to productsrelated to products

• Sales and distribution balance

• Recipe for consumption of input material

• Aggregation of output from different processes

, Pr l RL

Products , ,Pin Poutp l PL PL

raw material recipe function,P Pprls prlsa b

Distribution locationsPprls output yield in process s

Distribution locations

Dpetx

, Pl

Pout P Pplt prls rlst

r s RS

X x

, ,outp l PL t T

, ,P P Pl g l

Pin P P P Pplt prls rlst prls rlgt

r g RG s S r g RG

X a x b Y

, ,Pinp l PL t T

Ppl

D Poutpet plt

e S

x x

, ,Pp l PL t T

Page 73: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Industrial case study

Sales model

Distribution model

Numerical experiments

Production model

Procurement model

Page 74: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Spot and contract procurementSpot and contract procurement

spot offer quantity

Contract offer quantity

800 €

600 €

Contract offer cost rate

spot offer cost rate spot procure-

ment quantity

Totalprocurement

quantity

800 €

600 €

Offer Procurement

750 €

Contract

Spot

Average procure-ment costs

Page 75: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Procurement locations

Decisions for p,l and t

spot procure-ment quantity

Qspotpltx

Input for p,l and t

Constraints of the procurement modelConstraints of the procurement model

• Balance of procurement quantities and production input

, Qp l PL

contract quantityQconpltq

Distribution locations,Q Qplt pltLS US min. and max. spot quantity

Pinpltx

• Boundaries for spot procurement quantities

Q Qspot Qspotplt plt pltLS x US { , } ,Qp l PL t T

, Pin

Qspot QconPinplt plt plt

p l PL

x x q

, ,Qp l PL t T

Production locations

Page 76: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Objective functionObjective function

Procurement locations

Production location

Production location

Sales locationsDistribution locations

maxt T

S

Ss Ssplt plt

pl PL

x p

, Q

Qspot Qspotplt plt

p l PL

c x

, P Pl g

P Prst rs

r g RG s S

x c

, D

D DIplt pl

p l PL

y c

, D

D DTpet pe

p e PE

x c

Page 77: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Industrial case study

Sales model

Distribution model

Numerical experiments

Production model

Procurement model

Page 78: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Basis elements Scale

PeriodsProducts

129

Locations Product-location combinationsTransportation lanesTransportation lane – product

comb.

24713467

Production resourcesProduction processes

1415

ConstraintsVariablesCPU time (MIP gap 0.5%)

14,35317,2113.0 sec

Model implementation using ILOG OPL Studio 3.71 and CPLEX 9.1

Test case and implementation Test case and implementation

Test case: excerpt from a real industrial value chain

Page 79: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Profit

Distribution costs

Production costs

Procurement costs

Turnover

High volatility of profit, sales and procurement costs, but stable production and distribution costs

Optimization run with company dataOptimization run with company data

No full capacity utilization and spot demand coverage

Page 80: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

OutlineOutline

Introduction

Advanced planning systems

Case 1: Global network design

Case 3: Production planning and scheduling

Case 2: Supply network planning

Case 4: Value chain management

Outlook: Teaching SNP & APS

Page 81: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

Teaching SNP & APSTeaching SNP & APS

Development of teaching software for SCMusing Advanced Planning Systems

Joint project by:B. Fleischmann, Augsburg, Germany,M. Grunow, Copenhagen, Denmark,H.-O. Günther, Berlin, Germany,H. Meyr, Darmstadt, Germany,H. Stadtler, Hamburg, Germany

Supported by:SAP AG, Walldorf, Germany,DATANGO AG, Berlin, Germany

Output:DVD with teaching software (Phase 1)Accompanying text book (Phase 2)

Page 82: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

19 products made to stock 3 production sites with two lines each 3 warehouses 60 customers

Ludwigshafen

Augsburg

Magdeburg

Case study: Soft drink manufacturerCase study: Soft drink manufacturer

Page 83: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

short-term

medium-term

long-term

PurchasingWorkbench

Procurement Production Distribution Sales

Strategic Network Planning

Modules of mySAP SCMModules of mySAP SCM

Supply Network Planning (SNP)

DeploymentDeploymentProductionPlanning

&Detailed

Scheduling(PP/DS)

ProductionPlanning

&Detailed

Scheduling(PP/DS)

DemandPlanning

(DP)

DemandPlanning

(DP)

TransportationPlanning & VSTransportationPlanning & VS

ATP & CTPATP & CTP

Page 84: M. Grunow Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan December 13, 2007 Supply Network Planning and Advanced

for

Thank you

attention! your