luis a cifuentes p. catholic university of chile in session workshop on mitigation 23 may 2005
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program: Local Benefits With Global Results. Luis A Cifuentes P. Catholic University of Chile In Session Workshop on Mitigation 23 May 2005. Contents. Overview of the IES Program - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Luis A CifuentesP. Catholic University of ChileIn Session Workshop on Mitigation23 May 2005
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program:
Local Benefits With Global Results
2
Contents
• Overview of the IES Program• Relevant results from some
participating countries• Conclusions
3
IES: U.S. EPA’s Integrated Environmental Strategies Program
• Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing co-benefits program with a focus on GHG reductions.
• Partners local teams in developing countries with experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES projects, and other organizations (e.g., U.S. AID, NREL).
• Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e., greenhouse-gas mitigation and air quality) strategies and co-benefits.
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What are integrated measures? Low-sulfur coal
Smokestack controls
Catalytic converters
Inspection and maintenance
Diesel particle traps
Evaporative controls
Clean fuels/renewables
Energy efficiency programs
Fuel switching
Public transport and land use
Retirement of older vehicles
Efficiency standards for new vehicles/appliances
Carbon sequestration
Forest management
Control of other GHGs (CH4, N2O, CFCs, SF6)
GeoengineeringLocal
Global
Integrated
IntegratedJason West et al (2002)
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What are “co-benefits”?
• All the beneficial outcomes of a policy that reduces two or more air emissions simultaneously.
• For IES, reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases as well as local, conventional air pollutants.
• Includes human health benefits and associated economic benefits due to reduced local air pollution.
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Co-Benefits Framework
Local/RegionalPollutant
Emissions
AmbientConcentrations
reductions
Short/mediumterm
benefits
Activities / Energy Use
GHGEmissions
GHGReduction
Targets
Global warmingpotentialreduction
Long-termbenefits
Policyoptions
Technologyoptions
AQStandards
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IES goals• Identify strategies that reduce GHG emissions and
improve local air quality while meeting public health, economic development objectives.
• Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates of global and local co-benefits of policies and technologies.
• Engage stakeholders to lay groundwork for implementation of cost-effective air quality management strategies.
• Build analytical, institutional, and human capacity for multidisciplinary analysis of GHG mitigation, health, and environmental impacts of alternative strategies.
• Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits analysis.
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Participating Countries
Countries with IES projects: China, India, Philippines, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico
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Data
Models
IES analytical approach
Healtheffectsmodels
Energy & GHGmitigationscenarios
ProjectedGHG/pollutant
emissions
Projectedconcentrations
Projectedhealth benefits& end points
Energy/emissions
models
Air qualitymodels
Economicvaluationmodels
Projectedeconomicbenefits &end points
Datainputs
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Challenges of the Analysis
• Emissions data• Moving from emission inventories
to exposure levels• Health Impacts Quantification• Cost analysis
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How can IES help
• Provides expertise in key issues:– Emissions inventories– Transport modeling– Atmospheric Modeling– Health Impacts Quantification
• Two specific models for quantify and value reduced health impacts:– BenMap– Apheba
• Network of IES teams provides help and cooperation
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Overview of BenMAP Model
(2) BenMAP data needs and data
input
(3) Characterizing air quality changes
(model and monitor data)
(4) Health impact functions
(incidence modeling)
(5) Aggregation and pooling of results
(7) Uncertainty analysis
(8) BenMAP flexibility and its application in
supporting specialized analyses and research
(6) Valuation functions(benefits modeling)
(1) OVERVIEW – incidence and benefits
calculation
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BenMAP Data Needs – linkages and interdependencies
Demographic data (projected to future simulation year)
Baseline disease incidence & prevalence data (projected to future simulation year)
Health impact functions• chronic• time-series (ecologic)
GIS coverage (map) of study area
Monitored air quality data
Modeled (gridded) air quality data
Economic valuation functions
Income elasticity studies
Health effects incidence estimation
Benefits (monetary) estimation
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APHEBA Air Pollution Health Effects Benefits Analysis model
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Key Results from IES studies
160
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000T
ons
of P
M10
Baseline Scenario1
Scenario2
Scenario3
Scenario4
Annual PM10 Reductions
200020102020
1. In general, there is correlation between global and local pollutant emissions reductions
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Tho
usan
ds o
f m
etri
c to
ns o
f ca
rbon
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Annual Greenhouse GasReductions
200020102020
Emission Reductions in Seoul
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Reductions of emissions of GHG and PM2.5 precursors are usually correlated
Residential Kerosene to NG
Boilers: Diesel to NG
CNG Buses
CNG Conversion Kit
Diesel Particulate Traps
Taxi Renovation
Diesel-electric buses
Incandescent to CFLs
FL High Efficiency Reflectors (Peak)
Mercury to Sodium Lamps (Peak)
Wood to NG (deforestation)
Extended Buses Replacement
Retrofitting EPA 94
Congestion Taxes - High
Congestion Taxes - low
Executive Buses
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Carbon Reduction (%)
PM
2.5
Pre
cu
rso
rs R
ed
ucti
on
(%
)Santiago Study
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2 Health benefits usually overcome the cost of measures
Hyderabad Study:
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3 Health benefits are usually larger than GHG benefits:
Source: McKinley et al 2005. (CO2 reductions valued at US$ 7(2-22) per ton)
México City Study
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4. The ranking of the measures changes when global benefits are considered
(Source: McKinley et al 2005) CO2 reductions valued at US$ 7(2-22) per ton
México City Study
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Since the rankings are not exactly the same:Santiago Study:
Incandescent to CFL (P)
Mercury to Sodium (P)
CNG Bus (2000)
FL High Efficiency Reflectors (P)
Residential Wood to NG (def.)
Residential Wood to NG
Boilers - Diesel to NG
Hybrid Diesel-Electric Buses (2000)
Incandescent to CFL (B)
Taxi Renovation
Mercury to Sodium (B)
FL High Efficiency Reflectors (B)
CNG Conv. Kit (2000)
Hybrid Diesel-Electric Buses (1999)
Diesel Particulate Traps
CNG Bus (1999)
Residential Kerosene to NG CNG Conv. Kit (1999)
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20
Rank Order PM2.5 Abatement Costs
Ran
k O
rder
C
arb
on
Ab
atem
ent
Co
sts
Source: Cifuentes et al 2000
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5. IES results have found their way into local policy-making
Examples of IES Analysis Integrated into On-Going Planning Efforts – Santiago (Chile) Decontamination Plan– Shanghai (China) 10th and 11th Five –
Year Plan– Beijing (China) 2008 Olympics AQ Plan– Seoul (Korea) Air Quality Management
Plan– Mexico City (Mexico) PROAIRE Plan– Philippines Clean Air Act Evaluation
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Summary: IES tools/resources• IES Handbook: Guidance document for policymakers,
technicians• International version of manual for EPA’s Environmental
Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) software• Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model (APHEBA)
users’ guide and training course. – Will provide a resource for conducting health benefits
assessments of changes in air pollution concentrations. • Training course and materials on health benefits analysis.
– Will provide basic information and training to country experts with conducting health benefits analysis as part of integrated environmental analysis projects.
• “Reduced form” analytical tools and methodologies – Will support analysis of air pollution and GHG mitigation
co-benefits where local data for detailed analysis of air pollution public health benefits is lacking.
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Final Comments
• The IES program has so far succeeded in developing integrated analyses in many countries, engaging local policy makers and building local capacity. Many of these analysis would not have been performed otherwise.
• The analysis of integrated measures shows that most of them have a positive correlation between GHG and local air pollutant reductions
• However, for most measures, public health benefits are an order of magnitude bigger than the potential benefits from carbon reduction
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For more information
Katherine Sibold, IES Program ManagerU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyWashington, [email protected] or +1 202 343-
9280
[email protected]://www.epa.gov/ies