Leonard Transportation CenterCalifornia State University, SB

Third Annual Regional Dialogue“Winning Strategies for Southern California”

May 22, 2009William H. Hudnut IIISenior Fellow EmeritusThe Urban Land Institute

Thesis: The probability of global warming/climate change has serious land

use challenges:• Planning• Compact Development• Infrastructure• Transportation: TOD/DOT• Housing• Retail• Sustainable Development• Regional Thinking and Acting

Global Warming andEnergy Availability

Competing Demand for EnergyPetroleum Overview

Source: Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2005

¹ Petroleum products supplied used as an approximation for consumption.² Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production.

AB 32 and SB 375

Rockville PikeMontgomery CountyMaryland

“We are changing the paradigm from capacity to sustainability”

Royce Hansen, Director, Montgomery County Dept. of Parks and Planning

1. Planning

“Together, We Can”

--Mayor Doug Hutchinson, Ft. Collins, CO

Population Growth: Both a Challenge and Opportunity

U.S. will add 110 million between 2010 and 2050West and Southwest will lead U.S. growthMany other countries will experience population declines

Donuts and Cookiesas Public Policy

“America’s Future Lies in Dead Malls”—Bill Fulton

Lakewood, CO

(Villa Italia Mall)

Belmar

Belmar

Belmar

Smyrna, Georgia--Before

Before…

Market Village—Smyrna, Georgia

…and After

Harbor Town, Memphis, TN

2. Well Designed Compact Development

Arlington, VA

Don’t Be Afraid of Higher Densities

What is good density? It is not this! A lot of people think of this when they think of density. They think of ugly architecture, crime and poverty. But the problems typically associated with density aren’t caused by density but by poorly designed development.

Emphasize Infill: Reinforce Investment in Established Places

ULI SC: “Enhance and Revitalize existing Communities.”

…As an Antidote to Sprawl

Reinvest

In 2001, Americans spent $214 billion on housing, 40% on remodeling, 60% on new construction.In the next 10 to 20 years, those numbers will be 50-50

Source: Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies

The “RE” Century Storm Cunningham, The Restoration Economy, 2002

• By 2012, restorative development will likely account for OVER 50% of all expenditures in US and Europe, representing “a gargantuan new category of business opportunities in the 21st century,”

3. Infrastructure

I-35W Bridge CollapseMinneapolisAug., 2007

How are we doing – ASCEAmerica’s Infrastructure D

Drinking Water: D

Roads: D

National Power Grid: D

Transit: D+

Aviation: D+

Freight : C-

ASCE Infrastructure Report Card 2005

Bridges: C

Federal Commitment Decreases

Source: Congressional Budget Office

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Infrastructure Spending as Percent of Federal Spending

Non-Defense Spending

Total Spending

%

Ford Heights, Illinois

Fix It First

Build New

Create A National Infrastructure Bank

Raise taxes? US Gas Tax Substantially Below European

CountriesTax per gallon USD

Source: Energy Information Agency; February 4, 2008.

Tap the Private SectorPrivatization Increasing User Fees

Increasing Taxes

Likely37%

Indifferent19%

Unlikely45% Likely

73%

Indifferent3%

Unlikely24%

Likely62%

Indifferent3%

Unlikely35%

Sources: ULI survey of directors of planning for state departments of transportation

Charge the Users

Freeways are not really free

4. Give Accessibility to Transit High Priority

East Point, GA

TOD--DOT

Plano, Texas

Before and After

Reduce Dependence on the Car

Heavy Rail

Light Rail

Buses

Commuter Rail

Express Buses andBus Rapid Transit

Bus Rapid TransitLane County Transit DistrictEugene, OR

Provide Transportation ChoicesLoveland, Colorado

Tale of Two Cities

• Atlanta– population 2,959,950– bike dealers 28

• Denver– Population 1,980,140– Bike dealers 149

Hiking, Biking, RollerBlading Trails

Not anti-car, but pro-pedestrian

The Pedestrian Friendly Environment

Walkable Urbanity

Interesting Walks

Tree Canopy

Buildings

Close to the

Sidewalks

• Town square photoParks and Squares

Indigenous Architecture

Examples of Walkable Developments

Bethesda Row

5. Workforce Housing

Drive Until You Qualify

Moving farther saves $5000/ mile

Portland -$2/day on mortgage

Orange County –est.$10,000Decentralization Incentive

57%

14%

15%

28%

43%

57%

14%

18%

25%

43%

58%

15%

13%

30%

42%

64%

7%

17%

39%

51%

8%

20%

49%36%

24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

TOTAL VERY LIKELY/LIKELY/SOMEWHAT

LIKELY

Very Likely

Likely

Somewhat Likely

Not at all Likely

Total<30 min31-60 min61-90 min91+ min

Majority Of Workers In All Commute Categories At Least Somewhat Likely To Move Closer To Work If

There Were More Affordable Housing

Mixed-IncomeCommunities

Irvine, CA

Affordable (Workforce) Housing

6. Urban Retail

Bridge Street Town Centre, Huntsville, Alabama

Bethesda, MD

Valencia Town Center---Valencia, CA

7. SUSTAINABILITY“Meeting the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Source: The World Commission on Environment and Development

**************************************

“Planning that takes into account future needs in three areas:

environment, economy and social equity.”

Source: Northeast Illinois Planning Commission,“Building Sustainable Communities”

What is Sustainable Development?

• Compact – high net density with amenity

• Diverse – mix of uses and users

• Land Efficient –conserves important natural and cultural features

• Vibrant – Richness of Place

• Connected – multiple modes of circulation, linked open spaces

Unsustainable Land Use in USA

Large Lot Subdivisions

Strip Commercial

Create Green Infrastructure

Hammond, Indiana

The community green, bounded by the dwellings it serves.

Portland, OR McCall Park

Roles of Green Infrastructure

• To shape or direct where growth will go• To protect essential ecological processes

& systems• To preserve working landscapes &

resource based industries• To perform environmental work (managing

stormwater, recharging groundwater, reducing the urban heat island, cleaning air & water)

Ed McMahon, ULI Senior Fellow

Green Building

The Plaza at PPL CenterAllentown, PA

1st LEED Certified McDonald’sSavannah, Georgia

Why Should Owners and Tenants Care?

“Five years ago, nobody knew about green buildings. Now almost all of our major tenants want LEED space. At Hines we specialize in Class A space, and we’ve reached the point where clients don’t think it’s Class A unless it’s green.”

Jerry Lea - Hines

La Jolla Commons, CA – LEED Gold

“The Benefits of Building Green”

• Conserves materials and resources such as water and energy

• Results in a more efficient use of resources – respect for the environment

• Minimizes waste• Creates a healthy and comfortable setting

for inhabitants• Causes positive publicity• Is more sustainable than building

conventionally

Biomass

Wind

Wind

Wind

Sol

Solar

Green (Clean) Energy

8. Thinking and Acting Metro-Wide

Regional Cooperation:Denver Bond Issue

• In 2004, Fastrack Referendum • $2 Billion Bond Approval• 122 miles of light rail• 57 new transit stops• 7 Counties & 32 Municipalities

It All Requires Leadership

Crafting our Legacy:

What will the world we leave our children and grandchildren look like?

Let’s work and hope for a happy result!

The End

www.uli.org/bookstoreNumber C-79