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Low Carbon Roadmaps for Finland 2050- taustatyö parlamentaariselle energia- ja ilmastokomitealle (Peikko)

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How many nuclear power plants and how muchrenewable electricity in Finland?

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Recent headlines

NUCLEAR ENERGY: European Union state aid regulators are expected to endorse Britain's 19‐billion‐euro ($24.6 billion) plan to construct a nuclear plant with French utility EDF, some people familiar with the matter declared on Wednesday.

GERMANY UNCOVERS EUROPE’S LARGEST BATTERY PLANT:  Germany launched Europe's biggest commercial battery plant on Tuesday, an installation powered by 25,600 lithium‐ion batteries that will aidalleviate the increasing supply of renewable energy in the region.

www.energymarketprice.com September 2014

NATURAL GAS: Gazprom declares to be unable to satisfyincreasing gas demand from Europe for the momentRussia's Gazprom declared on Wednesday it is unable to satisfy increasing gas demand from Europe while itcreates stockpiles prior to winter, weakening the ability of Europe to supply Ukraine with gas. 

Energy security

Integration of renewable electricityto energy systems

Subsidies for capacity increase

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Recent impact assessments by VTTin co-operation with VATT EU 2030 climate and energy policy

framework, April 2014 Impacts on energy systems and

energy prices Impacts on national economy

Nuclear policies, September 2014 Electricity demand scenarios up to 2035 Impacts on energy prices and national

economy

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Price estimates of emission allowances (EC 2013) and fossil fuels (IEA 2013): low carbonprices until 2025 and present price levels of fuels

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Electricity supply mix and price of electricity in different levels (Low, Mid, High) of electricity demanddemand

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Impact assessments of the EU 2030 energy and climate framework for Finland Analysis included impact assessments for energy systems with

TIMES-VTT and national economy with general equilibrium model VATTAGE developed by Government institute for economic research (VATT)Basis for the scenarios

Baseline according to updated energy and climate strategy Three policy scenarios assuming the same GDP/capita burden

sharing for non-ETS as in 2020 framework Energy system modelling included Nordic countries (i.e. Finland,

Sweden, Denmark, and Norway) and the rest of the EU is divided into two regions All scenarios were run with exogenous CO2 price, i.e. 10 €/t CO2

in 2020 and 20-50 €/t CO2 in 2030

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Policy scenarios included -32%, -36% and -40% non-ETS (i.e. NETS) targets for Finland

-16% NETS target in 2020

Finland would be net buyer of emissions allowances

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All the non-ETS sectors need to reduce GHG emissions but the reduction is the largest in the transport sector

Mt CO2 eq. 2005 BASE NETS -32% NETS -36% NETS -40%

Transport 12.7 10.4 7.9 7.4 7.1

Agriculture 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.3

CH4 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7

N2O 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.6

Space heating 4.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8

Machinery 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.1

Waste 2.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

F‐gases 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8

Other NETS 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6

Total 32.5 25.7 22.1 20.8 19.5

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The 2nd generation biofuels replace mineral fuels in road transport In 2030 40% of final energy in road transport should be drop-in

biofuels, which may be used in existing vehicle fleet

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2nd generation biofuel plants use mainly domestic wood as a raw material

Large biorefineries are mainly integrated to pulp and paper industries => effective use of side products and wastes of forest industries The most critical

question for Finland is related to future sustainability criteria of wood based biomass

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On-going studies

Low Carbon Roadmap 2050 for Finland (to be published in 2014) Parliamentary energy and climate committee established in 2013 Low Carbon Finland 2050 platform research project

Low carbon

scenarios

VATTAGE:

National economy

TIMES-VTT:Energy

systems & GHG emiss.

EFI-GTM: Forest

industries, use of wood

GTK input-output:Mining

industries

Continued growth

“Growth”

Transfor-mationalsociety

“Change”

Conserve society “Save”

Societal stagnation“Stagnate

”

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Finland can reach app. 90 % GHG reduction, if- Accelerated new technology deployment is assumed- CSS and bio-CSS will be applied early enough- If the use of wood is still carbon neutral in 2050- If nuclear is still in our energy mix in 2050

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TransportCO2

IndustrialsectorsCO2

EnergysectorCO2

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Some scenario results: the reports will be published autumn 2014

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Techno-economic breakthroughs enablingenergy system transitions CCS, even bio-CCS

Source: Antti Arasto, VTT

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Increased use of intermittent renewables in energysystems with smart storage technologies

SOURCE: VTT, LUT, UTU: NEO-CARBON ENERGY.

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How to achieve a low carbon society?

Copyright Jutta Suksi