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Low Carbon Economic Development

Strategy (LCEDS) for

Nepal – Tools and Approach

Prem Kumar Pokhrel Alternative Energy Promotion Center

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Phase 1: Data Collection and Analysis (Base

line data and BAU Scenario)

Data collected, discussed and validated through

TWG/TC meetings, Regional Stakeholder consultation &

sectoral ministries.

Followed Revised 1996/2006 Guidelines for National

Greenhouse Gas Inventories; IPCC Good Practice

Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National

Greenhouse Gas Inventories; Guidelines for the

preparation of national communications from Parties not

included in annex I to the Convention.

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GHG estimation

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Sector Tier applied Remarks

Energy T1

Industry T1 and T3 Only for selected industries Emission factors based on the technology are adopted

Transport T3 Bottom –up approach

Agriculture T1

Forestry T1 and T2

Building and waste T1 and T3

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• Phase 2: Modeling, Analysis and prepare

final draft of the strategy : Final Draft

Received

Model Used: MARKAL for energy related sectors & EX-

ACT for AFOLU (non-energy).

With feedback from TWG/TC meetings, Experts,

Regional Stakeholder consultation and sectoral

ministries.

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ANSWER

MARKAL

Useful Energy Demand

•Agricultural Sector •Commercial Sector •Industrial Sector •Residential Sector •Transport Sector

Base Year 2010

Development policies

Social Data

Economic Data

Technological Data M

AED

Different Energy Scenarios till 2030 Constraints

Process Technologies

Conversion Technologies

End-use demand technologies

Energy Resources

Methodology: MARKAL modeling framework

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EX-ACT Model

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Assumptions (Basis for different factors)

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• ADS 2013

• SE4ALL initiatives

• Smokeless kitchen initiatives

• Graduation from LDC by 2022

• FRA

•Nepal Land Use Policy (2012)

• MDG (NPC 2013)

• Three years plan

•Other sectoral policies and strategies

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-500

0

500

1000

Low Medium High

Carbon balance in Million tCO2 equivalent

Without

With

Balance

Agriculture sector with/without intervention

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Forest carbon balance (degradation and Agro-

forestry)

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Policy options – Energy Example

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Energy Related

Replacement of traditional and fossil fuels by clean

energy alternatives – electricity, LPG and ICS.

Replacement of incandescent bulbs by CFL and

LED.

Promotion of electrification in all 5 sectors for

lighting, heating and other purposes.

Intervention of more efficient process technologies

in industries

Intervention of mass transportation system

Introduction of new electric and bio-fuel

transportation technologies

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BAU: Business As Usual

LESO: Low Emission Strategic Options

HIG: High Economic Growth

LEHI: Low Emission High economic Growth

Energy related Sector: example

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Total Technology Cost (million NRs)

2015 2020 2025 2030

BAU 35,299 26,418 42,247 30,838

LESO 52,849 55,550 86,174 92,732

HIG 33,460 26,120 56,177 42,829

LEHI 50,961 56,973 116,971 140,384

Feasibility analysis

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Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy for Nepal

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Vision

• Upgrade Nepal to Developed Country category through Low Carbon-green economic development

Mission

• Livelihood enhancement of people generating employment by attaining high and sustainable economic growth through the development of climate smart energy and technologies

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Goals

• Reduction in fossil fuel dependencies- Energy efficiency, renewable energy and hydropower development • Promotion & Development of low carbon emitting technology and climate resilient infrastructure • Poverty reduction – Attracting investment for low carbon economic development and hence increasing GDP/GNP

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Objective

Self dependant in clean energy by 2022 and attain high economic growth rate through green technology.

Strategy

• Focus on Agriculture, Forest and Hydropower as a base for economic development. • Hydropower as major energy resources • Solar and wind energy promotion particularly in government and public building in 5 years

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Strategy……. • Focus on Agriculture, Forest and Hydropower as a base for economic development. • Hydropower as major energy resources • Solar and wind energy promotion particularly in government and public building in 5 years • integrate in curriculum at different education level on clean and low carbon economic development • promote environment friendly transport operated by clean energy • replace the technology with energy efficient technology gradually

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Strategy…… • Conservation and development of indigenous technology that consumes less energy. • Climate smart agriculture. • Capacity development of marginalized/deprived/vulnerable community • Attract foreign investment and from private sector •Maximize the benefit from different international treaty on Climate Change • Polluters pay principle. • follow EFLG and other sectoral policy indicators

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Sectoral Strategies • Energy sector • Agriculture and Livestock • Forest sector • Industry Sector • Building and Waste • Commercial Sector •Transport Sector • GESI

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Thank You

For detail: www.moste.gov.np www.nccsp.gov.np www.aepc.gov.np

E-mail: lcedsfeedback@gmail.com/ prem.pokhrel@aepc.gov.np