Long Term Plan for Meso scale OSSE

In Joint OSSEsNovember 29, 2007

WWB 209

Agenda

Need for Long term planning (Fuzhong Weng)

Over view of Joint OSSE NR (Michiko)

Meso scale OSSE plan for MSS (Chris Hill)

Other related work and progress in NICAM model (Michiko)

Discussion on Requirement for Meso scale Nature run and meso scale OSSE for Joint OSSE

Need for plan in Meso scale OSSE

High resolution data become available.Demand (hope) for high resolution data assimilation and forecastMeso scale OSSEs are being conducted at NCAR and Wisconsin

Although we will be busy in working T511 T799 NR for next few years, Joint OSSE has to have a guide line toward meso scale OSSE to integrate the effort.

Goal of the meeting

Discuss about consensus toward

Objective and need for meso scale OSSERequirements for meso scale Nature runRequirements for meso scale OSSEs

To be finalized through follow up discussion or another meeting.

Joint OSSE Nature RunInternationally collaborative Full OSSEs sharing the same Nature Run

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEshttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/THORPEX/osse

New Nature Run by ECMWF Based on Recommendations by

JCSDA, NCEP, GMAO, GLA, SIVO, SWA, NESDIS, ESRL

Low Resolution Nature Run Spectral resolution : T511

Vertical levels: L913 hourly dump

Initial conditions: 12Z May 1st, 2005 Ends at: 0Z Jun 1,2006

Daily SST and ICE: provided by NCEPModel: Version cy31r1

Completed in July 2006, rerun October 2006

Two High Resolution Nature Run35 days long

Hurricane season: Starting at 12z September 27,2005,

Convective precipitation over US: starting at 12Z April 10, 2006 T799 resolution, 91 levels, one hourly dump

Get initial conditions from T511 NR

To be archived in the MARS system on the THORPEX server at ECMWFAccessed by external users expver=etwu

Copies for US are available to designated users & users known to ECMWF Redistribution right not given

(Contact Michiko Masutani michiko.masutani@noaa.gov)Saved at NCEP, ESRL, and NASA/GSFC/SIVO

Complete data available to out side from portal at SIVO Proposed subset of the data: The complete surface data in reduced Gaussian (N256, N400), Complete (1x1, 0.5x0.5)pressure level data Complete (1x1,0.5x0.5) isentropic dataA few days worth model level data to be posted for online access, The complete model level data (2.4TB) must be sent using hard disks. Simulated observations. Some OSSE results

Archive and Distribution

Supplemental low resolution regular lat lon data Currently available from NCEP ftp server and 320GB disk

1degx1deg for T511 NR, 0.5degx0.5deg for T799 NR Pressure level data: 31 levels

Potential temperature level data: 315,330,350,370,530K

Selected time series for surface data: Convective precip, Large scale precip, MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp

HL vortices: vertical structure

Vertical structure of a HL vortex shows, even at the degraded resolution of 1 deg, a distinct eye-like feature and a very prominent warm core.

These findings, albeit preliminary, are suggestive that the ECMWF NR simulates a realistic meteorology over tropical Africa and nearby Atlantic and may prove itself beneficial to OSSE research focused over the AMMA or the Atlantic Hurricane regions.

TropicsOreste Reale (NASA/GSFC/GLA)

Comparison between the ECMWF T511 Nature Run against climatology

of observation 20050601-20060531, exp=eskb, cycle=31r1

Adrian Tompkins, ECMWF

Total PrecipNR vs. Xie Arkin

TechMemo 452 Tompkins et al. (2004) Plot files are also posted athttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/NR/ECMWF_NR_Diag/ECMWF_T511_diagThe description of the datahttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/NR/ECMWF_T511_diag/climplot_README.html

NR

Xie Arkin

NR-Xie_Arkin

Red: NRBlack:Xie Arkin

T511

T799

Min MSLP T799 OCT05 period

By Michiko Masutani

Quick look using 1degree data

Convective Precipitation

T511

T799

By Michiko Masutani

Quick look using 1degree data3 hour mean 12z-15Z Oct05 2005

T511

T799

Min MSLP T799 APR06 period

By Michiko Masutani

Quick look using 1degree data

T511

T799

Convective Precipitation in Spring

By Michiko Masutani

01Z May 2, 2005

06Z Apr 25, 2006

Quick look using 3 hour mean 1degree data

OSSE using MM5 and WRF at NCAR

Hans Huang et al

OSSE for dry line and convective storms on June 11, 2002

Evaluation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) with high resolution temperature and moisture information

One year project from January 2007-December 2007

Nature run: MM54km (500x500) 35 levelNon Hydrostatic, Cloud resolving model

Model: WRF35 levelNon Hydrostatic, Cloud resolving model36km (57x57) and 4km (504x504)

The results to be presented by Hans Huang in another meeting

High resolution data from GOESR is anticipated

Development of GOESR proxy data simulation toolPreparation of CRTM toward GOESRDevelopment of visualization tools

On going work in Joint OSSE Simulation of GOES data for calibration

(Tong Zhu)

On going Meso OSSE?

GOES-R interest

Current GOES vs. GOES-R

Current GOES Imager IR band has 4 km horizontal resolution (FOV), GOES Sounder has 10 km resolution. A full disk scan has total 10,080,910 observation points, and takes about 26 min. GOES-R ABI sensor will has 1km/2 km resolution.

GOES-R ABI BandCentral Wavelength

(μm)Current GOES

Band

1 (blue) 1 km 0.47

2 (red) 0.5 km 0.64 1 1 km

3 1 km 0.86

4 2 km 1.38

5 1 km 1.61

6

2 km

2.26

7 3.9 2 4 km

8 6.185

9 6.95 3 4 km

10 7.34

11 8.5

12 9.61

13 10.35 4 4 km

14 11.2

15 12.3 5 (G08) 4 km

16 13.3 5 (G12) 4 km

GOES-R ABI vs. Current GOES

Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

GOES EAST Observation Locations

Reduced to ~20 km, 403239 points Reduced to ~60 km, 40323 points

A full disk scan has total 10,080,910 observation points for 4 km resolution

Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

DBL91 dataset format -by Jack Woollen

lon= 278.7000122 lat= 80.83999634 dt= -0.2498998642 ( 4 60 6 91 )

.12513 iv=27 ! low vegetation cover .00000 iv=28 ! high vegetation cover 9.00000 iv=29 ! low vegetation type .00000 iv=30 ! high vegetation type

.33050 31 Sea-ice cover [(0-1)] .78305 32 Snow albedo [(0-1)] ............ .75516 243 Forecast albedo [(0 - 1)] .00120 244 Forecast surface roughness [m] -8.27367 245 Forecast log of surface roughness for heat

pres(pa) cloud cov cloud ice cloud h2o ozone mmr tempature spf humid iv=248 iv=247 iv=246 iv=203 iv=130 iv=133

.1000E+01 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .1410E-05 .1946E+03 .8109E-06 .2990E+01 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .2750E-05 .2135E+03 .1356E-05 .5684E+01 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .2489E-05 .2273E+03 .1967E-05 .1015E+02 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .1856E-05 .2396E+03 .2716E-05 .1716E+02 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .1442E-05 .2502E+03 .3463E-05 .2768E+02 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .1559E-05 .2569E+03 .4011E-05 .4285E+02 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .2007E-05 .2581E+03 .4109E-05 .6396E+02 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .0000E+00 .2480E-05 .2550E+03 .4110E-05

60 Variables

91 Levels

Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

T511 NR: Hurricane at 1 October 2005

Tong Zhu, Nov 1,2007

NICAMNonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric modelGlobal cloud resolving model

www.nicam.jp

3.5 km model integrations are done for one week (stop due to computing resource)

7 and14km model integrated for 100-200 days

40 levels

26DEC2006 21:00 JST

29DEC2006 09:00 JST

MTSAT( 中澤さんより )

Results from preprint by Inoue is removed.

Global or Regional?

Global analysis is performing better for regional forecast?

(Mike Charles EMC seminar Nov 27)

Influence of Global Teleconnection in a few days forecast

Regional OSSEs can produce quick results for analysis and a few hours forecast evaluation within

Local high resolution global model is an option

(4) T-PARC interestsGlobal optimal positioning of “observing” systems in OSSE

Improve forecast accuracy

Yucheng Song Nov1,2007

Day 3-4

Radiosondes

Russia

Day 3-4

GEMS

Driftsondes Aerosonde

s

D 2-3

G-IV

D 1-2

C-130

UAS

D-1

UAS

P-3

CONUS

VR

NA

VR Day 5-6Radiosonde

s

Tibet

Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and US continents

T-PARC PROPOSED OBSERVING PLATFORMS

Yucheng Song Nov1,2007

Local high resolution global modelUsing Fibonacci grid

Requirement for the meso scale Nature run(sample suggestions)

At least 3 month lower resolution run with same model is required to provide a period for spin up for bias correction.

There will be very little or no noise for switching to higher resolution model.

Must have a good TC or severe weather in the nature run period.

Sufficient number of vertical levels. Minimum 91 levels.

Some degree of coupling with ocean and land surface

If it is regional, the effect of the lateral boundary must be evaluated.This could be a s large as data impact.

Distinction between simulation of observation for OSSE and for visualization

A list of verification method must be produced by Joint OSSE.

Nature run must demonstrate good forecast skill

Meso scale Nature run verification Sample

Enegy spectrumRealistic Cloud distributionRealistic Cloud typeCyclone statisticsTropical wavesHurricane

Warm coreMax wind (Katrina 1mi average

Convective cell