long-range transport and fate of pops on global scale and within the emep region alexey gusev,...
TRANSCRIPT
Long-range transport and fate of POPs on global scale and within the EMEP
region
Alexey Gusev, Victor Shatalov, Olga Rozovskaya
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP
UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP)
EMEP domain
EMEP
Main activities of EMEP/MSC-E: Assessment of HM and POP pollution levels
and transboundary transport in the EMEP domain
Estimation of intercontinental transport and global levels of pollution
Evaluation of long-term changes in the pollution levels
Integrated analysis and assessment of pollution levels using monitoring, emissions and modelling
Global
EMEP is scientifically based and policy driven instrument for international cooperation to solve transboundary air pollution problems
Integrated approach to study POP pollution
Official emissions of EMEP countries
Expert estimates of emissions for PCBs, PCDD/Fs, HCB
Integrated approach – combined analysis of measurements, emissions and modelling results to evaluate spatial and temporal variations of POP polluition
Emissions for modelling
Measurements
EMEP database UNEP SC GMP data warehouse
Modelling
Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS)
PCDD/F emissions to air
Measurement sites (GMP Data Warehouse)
Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS)
GLEMOS features: Eulerian 3D chemistry transport model Multi-pollutant (heavy metals, POPs,
aerosol, …) Multi-media formulation (atmosphere,
soil, seawater, vegetation, …) Multi-scale consistent approach (from
global to local) POPs considered – PCDD/Fs, PAHs,
PCBs, HCB
GLEMOS general scheme
Anthropogenicemissions
Atmosphere
Land
Ocean
Human & environmentexposure (CCE)
Met
eoro
logy
,
ocea
n da
ta
Geophysics
Atm
osp
her
icd
epo
siti
on
Co
ncen
tration
in m
edia
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
Analysis of modelled and measured PCB-153 air concentrations (UNEP GMP passive sampling data for 2005-2013)
Modelled and observed PCB-153 in air (2012)
Africa Asia-Pacific
Global distribution of PCB pollution
Western Europe and others (WEOG)
Latin America and Caribbean (GRULAC)
Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE)
F5
F2
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
Analysis of modelled and measured PCB-153 air concentrations (UNEP GMP passive sampling data for 2005-2013)
Modelled and observed PCB-153 in air (2012)
Africa Asia-Pacific
Global distribution of PCB pollution
Western Europe and others (WEOG)
Latin America and Caribbean (GRULAC)
Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE)
F5
F2
Underestimation in Africa can be due to unaccounted PCB emission sources like e.g. e-waste disposal (Gioia et al., 2008,2011; Breivik et al., 2014)
0
2
4
6
8
10
PC
B-1
53
in a
ir, p
g/m
3
Africa North America Europe
GRULAC CEE Asia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Long-term changes of PCB pollution levelsDecline of mean PCB-153 air concentrations in different
regions from 1990 to 2012 (based on modelling results)
WEOG
GRULAC
Africa
CEEAsia
Lowest decline – CEE (~70%)
Largest decline – North America (~85%)
Western Europe
North America
UN regional groups
North America
CEE
Absolute values
Relative values
Long-term changes of PCB pollution levelsModelled and observed mean PCB-153 air concentrations at
monitoring sites in Europe (1994-2012)
WEOG
GRULAC
Africa
CEEAsia
UN regional groups
0
10
20
30
40
50
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Obs ModKosetice (Czech Rep.)
0
2
4
6
8Obs ModRorvik/Rao (Sweden)
PC
B-1
53 in
air
, pg
/m3
0
1
2
3
4Obs Mod
0
0.5
1
1.5Obs Mod
Aspvreten (Sweden)
Pallas (Finland)
Evaluation of global PCDD/F pollution levels• Construction of experimental emission scenario based on the data of the
UNEP SC• Model evaluation of pollution and comparison with measurements (UNEP
GMP and other data)
Modelled and observed PCDD/F air concentrations (2012)
(Schuster et al., 2015,. ES&T; Gusev et al., 2014, Org. Comp.)
Experimental modelling with global emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F releases provided reasonable agreement between model
predictions and measurements
Annual PCDD/F emission to air
Concluding remarks
Integrated approach, combining emissions inventories, models and measurement data, is a valuable framework for quantifying environmental contamination by POPs
EMEP is now expanding its scope to the global scale to correspond global distribution of POP contamination, and to communicate with research community
Closer cooperation between UNEP SC, AMAP, and EMEP will help to refine understanding and evaluation of POP transport and fate