local housing market economic impact report ada …...jan 15, 2020 · introduction & welcome...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by:
Dave Yorgason, MBA, CLC
Building Contractors Association of Southwestern Idaho
January 15, 2020
Boise, ID
LOCAL HOUSING MARKET
&
ECONOMIC IMPACT REPORT
ADA COUNTY
Introduction & Welcome
Topics:
1. 2019 Local Housing Report & 2020 Forecast
2. Economic Impact of Local Home Building
3. Local Government Issues Addressed by BCA
and Savings
Local Housing Report
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Idah
o
Nevada
Arizona
Utah
Texa
s
South
Caro
lina
Was
hingto
n
Colorado
Florid
a
North C
arol in
a
2.1%
1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%
Top 10 States in Percent Growth 2019
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
5892 6098
6761 6726
7565
8991
12208
10370
6839
5154
5683
6172 6498
7115
8124 7963
9553
11048 11263
11559 11549
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
A1 - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY
Total Single Family Home Sales
BOOM 2004-2007 BUST 2008-2011 RECOVERY BOOM 2015-
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
2210 2609
3125
4900
3815
1877
1366 1190
986 878
1433 1674 1552
1778
2596 2774
3279
3700
4678
5265
5998
7349
6538
5131
3873
4493
5186
5620 5682
6450 6411
7775
8452 8489 8280
7849
5892 6098
6761 6726
7565
8991
12208
10370
6839
5154
5683
6172 6498
7115
8124 7963
9553
11048 11263
11559 11549
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
A1A - Ada County Yearly Sales HISTORY
New Construction Sales Existing Sales Total Single Family Home Sales
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$27
9,9
00
$29
8,4
50
$30
6,5
46
$2
97
,00
0
$30
5,0
00
$3
24
,29
5
$31
6,5
00
$33
3,9
00
$31
8,6
00
$3
21
,39
8
$32
4,2
50
$3
24,9
00
$3
14
,53
9
$3
25
,00
0
$3
36
,56
6
$33
0,5
00
$3
44
,545
$35
3,6
00
$34
9,0
00
$35
4,9
00
$3
49,9
99
$3
50,0
00
$35
9,9
00
$3
50,0
00
12%
9% 10%
11%
13%
9% 10%
6%
9% 8%
12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11%
10% 10% 11% 11% 10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% C
han
ge
Me
dia
n S
ale
s $
A10 - Ada County Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price
2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $
Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$36
5,7
52
$3
62,0
00
$3
44,5
35
$3
75
,546
$34
9,7
13
$39
2,5
26
$37
9,9
00
$3
88
,23
5
$3
57,5
00
$3
76
,00
0
$3
87,7
80
$4
03
,27
2
$3
67,0
00
$37
3,3
90
$37
9,9
90
$3
70,3
92
$3
89
,90
0
$4
09
,90
0
$3
89
,99
0
$3
98,6
41
$3
93,2
45
$4
01,7
02
$43
9,9
00
$3
99
,91
2
0%
3%
10%
-1%
11%
4%
3% 6%
10%
7%
13%
-1%
5%
7%
5%
7% 7%
6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% C
han
ge
Me
dia
n S
ale
s $
A11 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION Monthly MEDIAN Sales Price
2018 Median Sales $ 2019 Median Sales $
Monthly Change % YtoY YtoD Cumulative Change % YtoY
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ada County Permits
Single Family Permits
Mulit-Family Permits
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Single Family Permits
Boise
Meridian
Eagle
Star
Kuna
Ada County
Garden City
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Multi-Family Permits
Boise
Meridian
Eagle
Star
Kuna
Ada County
Garden City
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
4270
4424
4648
4882 4995
5077 5049
4878 4772
4573
4409
3948
1371 1406 1504
1705 1808
1967 1952 1937 2013
1897
1645
1422
1185 1178 1209 1279 1287
1463 1530
1659
1884 1817
1677
1506
1362 1333 1423 1445
1510
1717 1726 1680 1790
1686
1476
1233 1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A16 - Ada County Residential INVENTORY
2008 2017 2018 2019
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
3005
3206
3405
3581
3770
3910 3920
3795 3706
3555
3430
3029
555 640
737
920
1052
1270 1228 1226 1199
1068
797
582
424
489 562
679 704 816
862 885
1005
889
700
503
488 516
669 727 737 879 919 898 913
774
620
417
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A60 - Ada County RESALE INVENTORY
2008 2017 2018 2019
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
1265
1218 1243
1301
1225
1167
1129
1083 1066
1018
979
919
816
766 767 785
756
697
724 711
814 829
848 840
761
689
647
600 583
647 668
774
879
930
977 1003
874
817
754
718
773
838 807
782
877 912
856
816
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A59- Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY
2008 2017 2018 2019
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
3.8
4.2
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.8 2.8
2.5
2.7
3.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9 2.0
2.1 2.1 2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8 1.7 1.7
1.8 1.9
1.8
1.6 1.5
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.2 1.2 1.3
1.5
1.8 1.9
1.8
1.9
2.1 2.1
1.9
1.6
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.8 1.7
1.6
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2015 J
an
Jul
2016 J
an
Jul
2017 J
an
Jul
2018 J
an
Jul
2019 J
an
Jul
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell P
resen
t In
ven
tory
A28 - Ada Odds Progression w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
1
2
3
3
3
8
1.7
0
0
1
2
2
2
6
1.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
$200-249,999
$250-299,999
$300-399,999
$400-499,999
$500-699,999
$700-999,999
$1,000,000 +
Total
Months to Sell Present Inventory
AC23 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS
Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
7.0 7.1
6.1 6.2
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.0
5.3
6.0
4.4
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.7
3.5 3.6
3.9 4.1
4.7
5.3
3.8 3.7
3.9
2.9 2.9
3.1
3.4 3.5
3.8 3.9 3.8
3.5
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.5
2.6
2.2 2.2
2.6
2.8
2.6
3.0 3.1
2.9
2.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2015 J
an
Ju
l
2016 J
an
Ju
l
2017 J
an
Ju
l
2018 J
an
Ju
l
2019 J
an
Ju
l
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell
Pre
sen
t In
ve
nto
ry
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
7.0 7.1
6.1 6.2
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.0
5.3
6.0
4.4
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.7
3.5 3.6
3.9 4.1
4.7
5.3
3.8 3.7
3.9
2.9 2.9
3.1
3.4 3.5
3.8 3.9 3.8
3.5
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0 2015 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2016 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2017 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
2018 J
an
Mar
May
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell
Pre
sen
t In
ve
nto
ry
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
7.0 7.1
6.1 6.2
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.1
5.7
5.3
5.6
5.0
5.3
6.0
4.4
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.7
3.5 3.6
3.9 4.1
4.7
5.3
3.8 3.7
3.9
2.9 2.9
3.1
3.4 3.5
3.8 3.9 3.8
3.5
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.5
2.6
2.2 2.2
2.6
2.8
2.6
3.0 3.1
2.9
2.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2015 J
an
Ju
l
2016 J
an
Ju
l
2017 J
an
Ju
l
2018 J
an
Ju
l
2019 J
an
Ju
l
Mo
nth
s t
o S
ell
Pre
sen
t In
ve
nto
ry
A30 - Ada Odds Progression New Construction w 2 Month Rolling Sales Ave.
Ada Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
719
759
862
942
891
857
793
683 670
647 641
598
700
766
815
878
837
806
838
796
741 718
759 756
-3%
1%
-5%
-7% -6% -6%
6%
17%
11% 11%
18%
26%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% C
han
ge
A48 - Ada County PENDING NEW CONSTRUCTION Sales
2018 Pending Sales Units 2019 Pending Sales Units % Change
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
1
5
6
4
5
0
0
4
0
1
3
3
3
4
6
3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
$200-249,999
$250-299,999
$300-399,999
$400-499,999
$500-699,999
$700-999,999
$1,000,000 +
Total
Months to Sell Present Inventory
AC24 DECEMBER 2019 YTD SELLING ODDS New Construction
Ada YTD Odds Canyon YTD Odds
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$31
3,7
48
$30
5,1
82
$28
2,5
00
$27
8,1
06
$29
7,1
50
$31
5,4
00
$28
5,9
27
$34
9,6
42
$32
8,3
08
$30
9,0
00
$33
4,1
64
$32
0,0
00
$28
6,1
25
$29
9,9
85
$29
6,0
00
$31
8,7
60
$31
6,4
50
$30
4,6
29
$31
4,9
00
$32
6,6
62
$31
7,3
25
$33
3,4
50
$31
1,8
37
$30
7,8
62
$31
1,1
90
$34
0,0
00
$31
1,7
51
$32
0,7
68
$31
7,9
90
$34
5,0
00
$33
4,9
00
$35
3,8
25
$35
0,0
00
$32
9,9
00
$33
9,5
00
$35
6,2
99
$36
5,7
52
$36
2,0
00
$34
4,5
35
$37
5,5
46
$34
9,7
13
$39
2,5
26
$37
9,9
00
$38
8,2
35
$35
7,5
00
$37
6,0
00
$38
7,7
80
$40
3,2
72
$36
7,0
00
$37
3,3
90
$37
9,9
90
$37
0,3
92
$38
9,9
00
$40
9,9
00
$38
4,9
90
$39
8,6
41
$39
3,2
45
$40
1,7
02
$43
9,9
00
$39
9,9
12
25%
33%
30%
28%
30%
29% 28%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
% o
f M
ed
ian
In
c t
o b
uy M
ed
ian
pri
ce
d h
om
e
Sin
gle
Mo
nth
Me
dia
n S
ale
s $
A40 - Ada County NEW CONSTRUCTION AFFORDABILITY Index
Single Month Median Sales $ Affordability Index
Webb Charts - A Subscription Service Jere Webb Publishing Data compiled from Intermountain MLS
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,000
$240,000
$250,000
$260,000
$270,000
$280,000
$290,000
$300,000
$310,000
$320,000
$330,000
A57 - Ada County Market Correction - DECEMBER 2019
Yearly Existing Median Sales Price Equity Existing Median Sales Price 3.7% Appreciation Line - 2000 Base Year
➢ Sales: UP (12+%)
➢ Price: UP
➢ Permits: UP (7.5%)
➢ Inventory: DOWN (Balanced)
➢ Distressed Inventory: VERY LOW
➢ Months Supply: DOWN
➢ Affordability: UP
Local Housing Report2019 New Construction Summary
New Construction Forecast
New Construction Forecast
✓ 2019 Prediction: Strong Sales and Price Resistance✓ Price gains not the same % increase as last year
✓ “Later innings”
✓ 2019 Wild Cards:✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?
✓ Interest Rates will rise …… how much?
✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices
✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs
✓ Government Regulations - Local and National
✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Government Shutdowns, Trump vs. all
New Construction Forecast
✓ 2020 Prediction: Growth at a slower Pace
✓ Sales Still Strong, especially first ½ of year
and….More Price Resistance (Be Smart)
✓ Price gains similar to, or less than, last
year’s % increase
✓ “Later innings”
New Construction Forecast
✓ 2020 Prediction: Growth at a slower Pace
✓ Sales Still Strong, especially first ½ of year and….More Price Resistance
✓ Price gains similar to, or less than, last year’s % increase
✓ “Later innings”
✓ 2020 Wild Cards: Interest Rates
✓ 2020 Wild Cards (other):✓ Inventories (Homes and Lots) … continue as a disciplined recovery?
✓ Inflation: Building Costs, Land & Lot Prices
✓ Labor shortages …. impacts inventory production and costs
✓ Government Regulations - Local and National. Election Year
✓ Trump Effect ??? – Trade Wars, Impeachment, Trump vs. all
✓ Recession ?
More Trends & Impacts
✓ Millennials and Boomers will dominate market
✓ Price spread between New and Existing Homes
✓ Over 21% is better, but still concerning
✓ Fewer homes on the market is the new normal
✓ Opposition to new housing will continue
✓ Interest Rate sensitivity
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
Recent quotes in the news….
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
Recent quotes in the news….
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
Recent quotes in the news….
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps://idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
1/28/19, 2(52 PMRealtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019 – Idaho Business Review
Page 1 of 2ht tps:// idahobusinessreview.com/2019/01/28/website- boise- a- hot- housing- market- in- 2019/
Seventeen townhomes are proposedfor vacant lot at the Kootenai Streetrail crossing — one of a number ofTreasure Valley housing projects inthe works. Image courtesy of Pivot
North Architecture.
Realtor.com: Boise a hot housing market in 2019
! By: Steve Sinovic " January 28, 2019 # 0
The City of Trees just added another distinction to its growing résumé.
Idaho’s capital city is among the top 10 “surprising housing markets
poised to rule in 2019,” according to realtor.com.
The roster was created after the real estate listings website analyzed
housing markets across the U.S. that are hotbeds for job growth and new
construction— places where hordes of new residents are moving and
which are, for the most part, relatively affordable.
Boise landed No. 8 on the list.
According to realtor.com, “Much of the boom in Boise’s housing market is
due to all of the out-of-staters swooping in. As in many of the other
markets on this list, folks from high-cost states such as California are shuffling across state lines to save their hard-
earned cash.”
The median price of a home in the Golden State is $536,000, while it’s just $326,000 in Idaho, according realtor.com
data.
The article said newbies are attracted to Boise’s scenic mountain views plus perks like rafting on the Boise River and
attending the Idaho Shakespeare Festival each summer.
“We finally are big enough that we have the culture and the amenities of most big cities, yet we don’t have the
prices,” says Robert Inman, director of operations for Boise’s Best Real Estate Team, a Keller Williams affiliate.
One of the drawbacks is that this influx of buyers into the Boise metro has driven up home prices 13.4 percent since
last year.
“It’s gotten harder for locals to buy homes,” Inman says.
According to realtor.com, the hottest market overall is Lakeland, Florida, just east of Tampa. Major cities like Miami,
Boston and Phoenix also landed on the list.
“The diversity of these top markets suggests that real estate can thrive anywhere there is a strong local economy,”
said Danielle Hale, a realtor.com economist. “While attracting younger individuals and families who are likely to be
first-time buyers can be important, real estate can also thrive in sunny retirement communities.”
While the 10 top markets will continue to be frothy, realtor.com has another perspective for the country as a whole.
It’s predicting the number of overall home sales to decrease by 2 percent, after years of steady climbs. Meanwhile,
prices, which have been steadily zooming up over the past few years, will rise only by a paltry 2.2 percent — thanks
to already meteoric prices in many parts of the country, along with the rising mortgage interest rates and tax
changes pricing more buyers out of the market.
Realtor.com’s hottest housing markets in 2019
2020
1
NAHB Local Housing
Economic Impact Study
for Ada County
December 2018
Economic Direct Impact2019 SF Residential Construction
Ada County 2019
# of SF Building Permits: 4,890
Median house price: $400,000
Permit/Impact fees: $14,000
Annual property taxes: $3,570
Economic Direct Impact2019 SF Residential Construction
Total Taxes & Fees paid to local governments:
Total Permit & Impact Fees: $68,460,000
Property Taxes & Other Fees: $8,728,000
TOTAL $77,188,000
Note: Total Fees Paid = total permits x permit fees
Property Taxes = ½ of total permits x value (less owner exemption) x avg. levy
Top Regulatory Issues
Addressed by BCA in 2019
Top BCA issues in 2019
1. State Building Codes
(Residential, Energy, etc.)
2. Meridian Planning Code &
Comp Plan
3. Meridian Building Dept.
(Plan Reviews, inspections)
Est. Savings / home
$6,000
$1,500
$600
Current Local Regulatory Issues
1. State Building Codes: 2018 Residential, Energy, etc.
➢ Bring all Idaho Cities/Counties onto the same code
2. Legislative Issues:
➢ Contractor Registration vs. Licensing
3. Positive Public Relations Outreach
4. Meridian Open Space Ordinance, etc.
5. DEQ: IPDES (Permit for Storm Water Erosion Control)
Top Regulatory Issues
Estimated Savings in 2018 - 2019
$19,500 per home
... 10 homes = $195,000
... 100 homes = $1,950,000
✓ For every $1,000 increase in home = 482 people priced
out of the local housing market
DATA SOURCES
LOCAL HOUSING REPORT – YEAR END 2018
• Intermountain MLS, Webb Charts, National Association of Relators
NAHB LOCAL HOUSING ECONOMIC IMPACT – DEC. 2018
• Building Costs & Sales Price: Local Builders, Developers & IMLS
• Permits: Ada County and Cities
• Local Gov’t Revenue (building permit, impact & connection fees,
prop. taxes, etc.): Ada County and City Building Depts & Ada
County Assessor
• Local Government Costs (spending): U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census
of Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)
• Economic Impacts: NAHB, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & U.S. Census Bureaus’ Census of
Governments (based on inputs from local agencies)
• Jobs: Idaho Dept. of Labor & Idaho Dept. of Commerce