local adaptation plan of action (lapa)-district layyah...1 human development report 2011, united...

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Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Layyah

Acknowledgement

Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPA) was prepared by the DevCon Development Consultants under

the project called “GROW campaign” a joint collaboration of Oxfam in Pakistan and Indus Consortium and

implemented in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore districts.

Special thanks to the representatives of the government line departments, civil society, media, farmers and

academia for providing information and support in consultation workshops/meetings. The DevCon team

extends its appreciation to the management and project staff of Oxfam Pakistan and Indus Consortium for

their continuous support and collaboration during the assignment.

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Table of Contents Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................................................ 1

1. Background ............................................................................................................................................... 3

2. Purpose ..................................................................................................................................................... 3

3. Key Objectives ........................................................................................................................................... 4

4. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 4

5. Geography ................................................................................................................................................. 5

6. Administration........................................................................................................................................... 6

7. Agriculture ................................................................................................................................................. 7

8. Secondary Data Findings ........................................................................................................................... 7

8.1. Climate Change Trends in Pakistan .................................................................................................... 8

8.2. Institutional Arrangement for Climate Change .................................................................................. 9

8.3. Economic Relevance of Agriculture ................................................................................................. 11

8.4. Land Use ........................................................................................................................................... 11

8.5. Food Security and Nutrition ............................................................................................................. 12

8.6. Challenges for the Agricultural Sector ............................................................................................. 12

8.7 Agriculture and Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 12

8.8 Climate Change and Agriculture in Punjab ....................................................................................... 13

8.9 Climate Change and Agriculture in District Layyah ........................................................................... 13

9. Primary Data Findings ............................................................................................................................. 15

9.1. Issues ................................................................................................................................................ 15

9.2. Effects ............................................................................................................................................... 15

9.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 15

10. LAPA Framework ................................................................................................................................... 16

10.1 Climate Change Sensitisation .......................................................................................................... 17

10.2 Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ......................................................................... 17

10.3 Prioritization of Adaptation Options ............................................................................................... 18

10.4 Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action ................................................................................ 18

10.5 Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes ......................................... 18

10.6 Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action ........................................................................... 18

10.7 Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action ................................................................ 18

11. Framework for Plan of Action ............................................................................................................... 19

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1. Background

Indus Consortium (IC) a collaborative platform of 3 humanitarian and development organizations works on

climate change, water governance, tax justice, democracy and governance. Humanitarian work is the key

of the area of expertise of Indus Consortium.

Pakistan, currently ranking 145thof 187 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI), has a

population of 177 million, 22.7% of whom live on less than $1.25 per day1.60.6% of rural households are

food insecure2 and, lagging behind MDG1, the country has dropped from 52nd on the Global Hunger Index

(GHI) in 2010 to 57th in 20123.In Layyah District, which has the 5th highest incidence of severe poverty

amongst Punjab’s 35 districts4, 91% of the population have insufficient income to meet their basic needs5.

GROW campaign is a 04 years joint collaboration of Oxfam in Pakistan and Indus Consortium and

implemented in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore districts. Facilitation in the

development of local adaptation plan of actions (LAPA) in 5 respective districts, incorporation of small

growers and woman framers’ input in draft CC policy of Punjab province and budget analysis/ advocacy

on CC related budget and expenditure has been done. Youth engagement has been ensured through formal

MOU signing and partnership with 3 top public universities of Punjab including University of Punjab,

Lahore, Bahauddin Zakriya University, Multan and Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi.

Budget of provincial government of the Punjab is being analyzed three consecutive years as Climate Public

Expenditure Review (CPER) / Budget Primer. Creating the drive through local level then to provincial

level, a research is being planned to conduct in order to understand the budget cycle at district level.

2. Purpose National Climate Change Authority Act 20176 also emphasized to prepare the National Adaptation Plan

and its constituent provincial and local adaptation plans of Actions, the would help out to design Nationally

Appropriate Mitigation Action Framework.

Indus Consortium has taken the initiative to develop sectoral Local Adaptation Plans of Action on

Agriculture in two districts of Punjab, i.e. Rajanpur and Layyah. Moreover, in order to achieve more specific

results and to highlight how climate change affect crops of the Layyah, agriculture LAPA’s in are made

crop specific. The most affected crop from Layyah is Gram/chickpea.

Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPA) will support decision-makers from local-to-national level actors

to:

1 Human Development Report 2011, United Nations Development Programme 2 National Nutrition Survey, 2011, Aga Khan University, Pakistan Medical Research Council and Government of Pakistan. 3 Global Hunger Index 2012, Welthungerhilfe, Concern Worldwide and International Food Policy Research. 4 Naveed and Ali (2012) Clustered Deprivation: District Profile of Poverty in Pakistan. Sustainable Development Policy Institute. 5 Siddiqui (2008) Income, Public Social Services & Capability Development: A Cross-district Analysis of Pakistan; Pakistan Institute of

Development Economics. 6 National Climate Change Authority Act: http://www.na.gov.pk

http://www.na.gov.pk/

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Identify the most climate vulnerable Village Development Committees (VDC’s), wards and people

and their adaptation outcomes and actions.

Prioritise adaptation actions in easy ways whereby local people make the prioritisation decisions.

Prepare and Integrate local adaptation plans for action into local-to-national planning in accordance

with the Local Self Governance Act.

Identify appropriate service delivery agents and channels for funding to implement local adaptation

plans for action. The LAPA Framework can thus ensure that the best sequence of adaptation actions

is carried out by the most appropriate service providers in a timely and resource efficient manner.

Assess the progress of LAPA to ensure effective planning and delivery.

Provide cost-effective options for scaling out local-to-national adaptation planning.

3. Key Objectives The main objectives of District Level Sectoral Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) on Agriculture are

as under:

• LAPAs shall be developed to see mitigation and adaptation options available according to the

district profile of impacts of climate change on agriculture sector, available resources (human,

financial and infrastructure) and implementation strategies and plans by GROW District Forums.

• LAPAs shall herald a window of lobbying and advocacy efforts at district as well as provincial

level and also provide opportunity to gear up efforts to integrate these LAPAs into district plans of

Agriculture Department.

4. Methodology DevCon collected primary data from district Layyah. The data collection process included

FGDs/consultations with relevant line departments, CSOs, Media and farmers (men and women).

FGDs with Community Members

FGDs with farmers (men and women) were conducted at District level. Discussion mainly focused on

current agriculture practices, cropping pattern, climate resilient crops, challenges, coordination mechanism

with agriculture department, services available from agriculture department, current polices and plan.

Consultation Workshop

One day consultation workshop organized in district Layyah to get the input of relevant stakeholders. The

stakeholder’s views were compiled and used for LAPA development. The following government

departments and stakeholders were consulted during data collection.

Agriculture Extension

Agriculture Field & Research

Agriculture Water Management

Agriculture Pest Warning

Agriculture Soil Fertility

Agriculture Marketing

Food

Environment

Irrigation

Forest

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Finance & Development Officer

ADP Officer

Women farmers/ Community members \ small farmers

Local CBO/ NGOs representative

PRSP representative

DDMA representative

5. Geography District Layyah is bounded on the North by district Bhakkar, on East by district Jhang. River Indus flows

on its Western side across which lies district D.G. Khan and on the South district Muzaffargarh. District

Layyah has an area of 6291 square kilometres and comprises the three tehsils of:

1. Layyah

2. Chaubara

3. Karor Lal Esan

The district Layyah has an extremely hot climate. The temperature in winter is low due to nearness to Koh-

Suleman range of mountains. The tehsil Chaubara is almost barren and consists of forest and sand dunes.

It is actually under the control of Forest Department. The thesil of Layyah and Karor Lal Esan are

comparatively better developed agriculturally but they have also large tracks of sand dunes and uncultivated

land. The river Indus passes from North to South on Western side of the district and touches D.G.

Khan.

The Layyah is situated between the River Indus and Chenab in Sindh. Sagar Doab in central area of

Pakistan. In the North, there is District Bhakkar, Muzaffargarh in the South, Jhang in the East and D.G.

Khan in the West across the river. The District is of semi rectangular shape and has sandy land.

Figure 1: District Map (Layyah)

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Location, Area and Administrative Division

Layyah is one of the southern districts of Punjab province. Located at 30°45’ to 31°24' north latitude and

70°44' to 71°50 east longitude, district Layyah is bounded on the north by District Bhakkar, on the east by

District Jhang and on the south by District Muzaffargarh. River Indus making the western border of the

district separates it from District Dera Ismail Khan (NWFP) and Dera Ghazi Khan. Layyah covers an area

of 6291 sq.km and makes 3% area of Punjab and 0.8% area of Pakistan.

Administratively Layyah is divided into three Tehsils, 44 Union Councils and 720 Mauzas or revenue units.

In terms of area, Chobara is the vastest tehsil that covers 44% area of the district. Layyah got the status of

district on July 1, 1982. Prior to this it was a tehsil of District Muzaffargarh.

Before coming under the administrative jurisdiction of District Muzaffargarh, Layyah was part of Dera

Ismail Khan District. These arrangements had had impacts on the social, political and economic relationship

of Layyah with these districts. Layyah is now part of Dera Ghazi Khan Division besides the districts of

Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh. All these four districts makes the southernmost zone of

Punjab. 30°45' to 31°24' north latitude and 70°44' to 71°50' east longitude, district Layyah.

Physical Features/Characteristics

Geologically the area where Layyah lies is formed of sedimentary rocks of quaternary type. The soils in the

district can be divided into two broader categories. The area/strip that lies along river Indus is part of its

active flood plain and composed of loamy and some stratified sandy soils that are found in young flood

plains. The area lying next to this is part of Thall desert. Here rolling to hilly sandy soils of aeolian deserts

are found. The difference in soils structure and moisture regimes in the district has translated into difference

in the natural vegetation. In the riverain zone, thorny vegetation is found where as in the desert zone,

desertic and semi desertic vegetation are found. In terms of natural use of land, major portion of the district

can be termed a rough grazing land. The areas lying along and closer to river Indus are arable lands. Small

pockets of the district are under the forest cover. Climatically Layyah is part of the hot, arid/dry zone of

Pakistan. The average annual rainfall is less than 125mm. The area receives most of the rainfall during

summer. The summers are long and very harsh. Dust storms are quite powerful and common in the desert

zone. In this zone, even during the summer, nights are very pleasant. The winters are short and moderate.

In the canal irrigated and riverain zone, during winter months of January and February, very thick fog in

the morning is a common phenomenon while at the same time frost damages crops and orchards.

6. Administration Pakistan’s 18th constitutional amendment was signed into law in 2010 targeting to decentralize political

supremacy. It pursued to curb the oft-abused powers of the Pakistani presidency and empower the country’s

four provinces by transferring federal-level capital, resources and authorities to provincial governments.

The main purpose was to ensure upright governance and impartiality at the doorstep. This plan gave the

assurance of the rights of the people and their partaking in the communal welfare.

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7. Agriculture Main Crops

Sugarcane

Wheat

Cotton

Gram

Guar Seed

Gram/Chickpea

Main Vegetables

Onion

Potatoes

8. Secondary Data Findings The Layyah District has an extremely hot climate. Maximum Temperature in the summer goes up to 53

Degree Celsius. The temperature in winter is low due the area’s nearness to Koh-Suleman range of

mountain. The Chubara Tehsil is almost barren and consists of forest and sand Dunes. The agriculture is

dependent on rains which often inadequate. Tehsil Chobara of Layyah was specifically selected due to

extreme poverty, food insecurity, remoteness, arid topography and lack of livelihood options. Lack of

Figure 2: Local Government Structure and its Hierarchy

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government investment and political will to prioritise initiatives to support the poor further amplifies

poverty and exclusion levels. Tehsil Chobara, district Layyah suffered from serious drought disaster in

2011-2012 due to no rain. Punjab Government declared 24 villages affected due to drought. Heavy rain and

wind storms also damage the wheat crops in 2016-17. Provincial Minister Disaster management visited the

area and announced the relief package for affected household.

The agriculture sector has become extremely vulnerable to the climate change. During recent years, the

production of all crops has been affected by the climatic changes, pulses are no exception. For instance,

production of gram has been badly affected in severe drought season as its production totally depends upon

the intensity and distribution of rainfall, being cultivated mostly in rain-fed areas.

The gram/chickpea has been identified as the most vulnerable crop from Layyah. Gram/Chickpea is one of

the most important pulses used in the Punjab. It is valued for its nutritive seeds with high protein content.

Chickpea seeds are eaten fresh as green vegetable, parched, fried, roasted, and boiled; as snack food, sweet

and condiments; seeds are ground and the flour can be used Chickpea/gram is the major source of livelihood

of rural people in the Thal desert of Punjab that is well known as home of chickpea because the area cannot

support/sustain major cash crops due to low fertility and lack of irrigation.

It’s production entirely depend upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall. Thal accounts for the bulk of

production of this crop, cultivated on about 2.129 million acres during 2016-17. Gram/chickpea contribute

70-80% to the total pulses area and production. The total seasonal average crop water requirement of gram

(Chickpea) has been calculated using the scientific method, which comes to about 275 mm (11 inch) and

ranges from 250-315 mm (10-13 inch). The crop is, however, liable to lodging and disease with extra

vegetative growth when there is high moisture.

The climatic uncertainty due to erratic rainfall in the Thal desert is the main obstacle in crop production

under rain-fed conditions. During the drought periods, there is absolutely no produce and even the farmer

has no seed to sow in the next year.

Under the emerging challenges of climate change, food security and water scarcity, increase in production

of cereals, pulses, fruits and vegetables to meet the food requirement of increasing population is direly

needed. In countries like Pakistan, majority of the people living in rural areas consume substantial quantity

of pluses for meeting their daily meal needs because these are rich source of protein and substitute of other

costly sources of protein - meat and fish. Major pulses include gram, lentil, mung and mash. The pulses are

grown on 5% of the country's total cultivated area. Punjab contributes 80% in total production of the pulses

in the country and occupies 5% of the total cropped area.

The major reasons for low yield of gram identified by the Arid Zone Research, Institute Bhakkar are poor

sandy soils, erratic rainfall pattern, uneven rainfall distribution, and small holdings, less or no access to

quality seed, conventional agronomic practices and poor marketing system. Supplementary irrigation at

critical stages of crop growth in required quantity plays a vital role in getting the high yield vis-à-vis

production in Thal area, the sources concluded. “The chickpea (gram) crop — grown predominantly in rain

fed areas of Punjab — has been hit by low per acre yield for the past few years. Growers complain about

water scarcity, poor quality seed and lack of the government’s focus to improve yield of minor crops”.

8.1. Climate Change Trends in Pakistan

A significant warming trend of about 0.57°C in the annual mean temperature was observed in the past

century from 1901 to 2000 in Pakistan. This increase is less than the mean annual temperature increase of

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0.75°C in the past century in the South Asia region.7 A more accelerated trend of warming, with the rise of

0.47°C, was observed from 1961 to 2007 in the country. The warmest year recorded until 2007 was 2004,

and the highest increase is observed during winter when the temperature ranges from 0.52°C to 1.12°C.

This is in agreement with the pronounced rate of warming observed over the South Asia region in the

decade 1998–2007, which was attributed to increase in winter temperature and post-monsoon changes. On

a regional basis, the highest increase in winter temperature was observed for Balochistan province, while

the northwestern parts of the country showed negative temperature trends in the summer. The annual

temperatures in Pakistan increased by 0.87°C (maximum) and 0.48°C (minimum) from 1960 to 2007.8

Based on the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) station data from 1951 to 2000, a rising tendency

in the annual mean surface temperature was observed throughout the country.9 In the hyper arid plains, arid

coastal areas, and mountain regions of Pakistan, an increase of 0.6°C–1.0°C in the mean temperature was

observed, whereas an increase of 0.5%–0.7% in solar radiation was noted over the southern half of the

country. In central Pakistan, the cloud cover decreased by 3%–5% with a consequent increase of 0.9°C in

temperature.

The continuous and longtime span data of various meteorological parameters of 56 selected PMD

meteorological stations showed the behavior of summer and winter maximum and minimum temperatures

during the last decade.24 A time series of area-weighted mean annual temperatures of Pakistan for the years

1961 to 2013, after applying uniform weighing factor, based on regional surface feature characteristics for

all the climatic zones of Pakistan.

8.2. Institutional Arrangement for Climate Change The role and importance of strong institutions to address climate change is highly acknowledged to

mainstream the issue in development policies and programs. Strong institutions promote adapting to

climate change and ultimately transform the system by building resilience. However, developing countries,

including Pakistan, suffer from inefficient and weak institutional structures, ultimately yielding poor

governance systems.

Institutionalization of climate change in Pakistan finds its roots in the early environmental efforts dating

back as early as the mid-1970s. Pakistan signed and ratified 14 international environmental commitments

between 1971–2001, including the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and Kyoto

Protocol, which acted as stimuli in initiating and guiding the policy processes and efforts on climate change

in the country. Significant progress has been made to set up institutional structures for guiding the

environmental initiatives in the country. After over 4 decades, however, these efforts still remain

fragmented, with insufficient coordination, political support, and ownership.

After the 18th constitutional amendment was passed in 2010, the Ministry of Environment was devolved

to the provinces and a new Ministry of Disaster Management was established in 2011. This was later

renamed as the Ministry of Climate Change in 2012, which raised the issue of climate change to a cabinet

level portfolio. In 2013, the Ministry of Climate Change was downgraded to a division of the Cabinet

7 M. Ahmed and S. Suphachalasai. 2014. Assessing the Cost of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia. Manila: ADB. 8 Q. Z. Chaudhry et al. 2009. Climate Change Indicators of Pakistan. Technical Report. No. 22. Islamabad: Pakistan Meteorological Department. 9 B. F. Anjum et al. 2005. Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology. 2(2). pp. 11–21.

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Secretariat and remained in this position until early 2015, when it was upgraded to the level of a ministry

again. Table 9 outlines the institutionalization of environment and/or climate change in Pakistan.

Table 1: Brief History of Institutionalization of Climate Change in Pakistan

Year Accomplishment Purpose and/or Function

1974 Environment and Urban Affairs Division

established at the Federal level

Follow up to Stockholm Declaration June 1972

1983 Pakistan Environment Protection Ordinance

enacted

First comprehensive environment-specific

legislation

1989 Environment and Urban Affairs Division

upgraded to Federal Ministry of Environment,

Forestry, and Wildlife

1991–1993 National Conservation Strategy prepared

National Environmental Quality Standards

adopted in 1993

It provided the broad framework for addressing

environmental challenges

1995 • Cabinet Committee on Climate Change

established

• Acted as policy coordination forum for climate

change

1997 • Pakistan Environmental Protection Act enacted • First environmental act of the country

2002 • Global Centre for Impact Studies on Climate

Change established

• This research center on climate change

functioned for 10 years as a development

project

2004–

2005

•Prime Minister Committee on Climate

Change convenes National Environment Policy

•Includes Prime Minister, Ministers of Water and

Power, Food and Agriculture, Science and

Technology, Environment, Planning

Commission, Special Advisor to the Prime

Minister

2006 • National Energy Conservation Policy

• National Renewable Energy Policy

• Clean Development Mechanism National

Operational Strategy

2010 • 18th Amendment to the 1973 Constitution •Devolution of power to the provinces

2011 • Ministry of Environment ceases to exist

• New Federal Ministry of Disaster

Management established

• Functions transferred to the Planning

Commission

2012 • Ministry of Disaster Management renamed to the Ministry of Climate Change

• National Climate Change Policy approved by Federal Cabinet

• Punjab and Balochistan Environmental

Protection Act prepared and enacted • “Green Benches” established in all High Courts

and Supreme Court of Pakistan by the Chief Justice of Pakistan

• National Disaster Management Plan approved

• National Sustainable Development Strategy

• Elevate climate change issue to a cabinet level portfolio

• A dedicated policy on climate change

• Deals with environmental cases; 2013 decision

prioritizes environmental cases in the High

Courts

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2013 • Ministry of Climate Change downgraded to Division of Climate Change

• Global Climate Change Impact Studies granted autonomous status

• National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy

approved

• Becomes part of Cabinet Secretariat

• Serves as the secretariat for the Prime

Minister Committee through “GCISC Act

2013”

2014 • Framework for Implementation of Climate

Change Policy adopted

2015 • Division of Climate Change upgraded to the

Ministry of Climate Change

• Federal focal ministry on all climate change-

related issues

8.3. Economic Relevance of Agriculture Agriculture remains the second largest economic sector in Pakistan, contributing approximately 18.9% to

the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and absorbing roughly 42.3% of the labour force, mainly

composed of women. The sector is not only the largest employer in the country but generates over 75% of

export revenue through agri-based textiles (cotton) and agri-food products.

Despite its critical importance to food security, livelihoods, economic growth and export revenues,

agricultural productivity remains low, with significant yield gaps compared to global averages in key crops

like wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. The average farm size in Pakistan is 2.6 hectares (ha), with

approximately 43% of the farmers categorized as smallholders with holdings of less than one ha, while only

22% own more than 3 ha of land. In 2016, for first time in the past 15 years, the sector experienced a

negative growth rate of 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of extreme events on key crops, a lack of access

to key inputs, and a global downturn in commodity prices.

Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology and techniques, and water infrastructure are

needed to tackle the emerging challenges to the sector’s development, especially in the context of declining

water availability and climate change impacts.

Agriculture provides employment for roughly 25 million people in Pakistan and is the main income source

for 34% and 74% of economically active men and women respectively. Yet women have limited access

and control over productive resources (e.g. land, irrigation infrastructure, and agricultural inputs), low

awareness of improved technologies and skills for value addition and marketing, and limited access to

extension and financial services. Their role in the household and in daily agricultural activities, however,

varies across regions according to local customs and traditions.

8.4. Land Use

Pakistan receives monsoon rainfall in the summer, while in the winter it receives rainfall due to western

systems (prevailing winds from the Mediterranean). These two forces broadly determine the two main

cropping seasons in the country. These are ‘Kharif’ (April-June), suitable for summer crops cultivation

(e.g. rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses), and ‘Rabi’ (October-December) when wheat, lentil, tobacco,

rapeseed, barley and mustard are grown. The major crops are cotton, wheat, rice, sugar cane and maize that

cover over 50% of the harvested area. Some crops such as pulses, onions, potatoes, chili, and tomatoes,

have gained in economic importance in the country, given the consistently high prices of these essential

commodities. Climate variability and change, pest infestation, and commodity price fluctuations are some

of the challenges to crop productivity.

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8.5. Food Security and Nutrition Natural disasters, economic instability, and militancy have challenged food security in Pakistan over the

past years, despite significant increases in staple crop yields. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in

the Global Food Security Index, with more than half of the population (60%) experiencing food insecurity.

The average food supply in the country is estimated at 2,440 kcal/person/day, yet this is rated insufficient

to meet demand (the country boasts an index score of 39.7, where 100 indicates sufficiency of supply)

given high geographical disparities in food production and supply. From a nutrition perspective, over one-

fifth (22%) of the total population is undernourished, one-third (31%) of children are underweight for their

age (15% are affected by wasting) and diets generally lack diversity (Pakistan scores a 53.60 on the food

diversity index).

8.6. Challenges for the Agricultural Sector Despite significance of agriculture to the country’s economy and its people, the sector currently faces a

multitude of challenges including population growth, reduced water resource availability and gender

inequality.

Pakistan’s population has more than doubled in the past two decades, growing at a rate of approximately

2% per year and is expected to further increase to 244 million by 2030 and 300 million by 2050. At the

same time, life expectancy in the country is projected to increase from 66 to 71 years by 2050. Such

exponential growth will put significant strains on the already extended and vulnerable agriculture system,

boosting demand for food. The current per capita caloric availability in Pakistan, 2,432 kcal/day is likely

to fall unless food production keeps the pace with the projected population growth.

Deficiency in water availability, degradation of soil, and an increasingly animal-based diet are additional

threats to food security in Pakistan. Changing climate conditions such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity

multiply these threats, affecting the availability and quality of natural resources and increasing the

vulnerability of the sector. Most of the country’s territory is classified as arid to semi-arid. Three-fourths

of the country receives less than 250 mm of rainfall annually, while about 20% of such area receives less

than 120mm Rainfall alone, then, is generally insufficient for growing agricultural crops, maintaining

pastures, and growing fruit trees. Roughly 8 million ha of land in Pakistan is idle and unutilized due to

unfavorable climatic conditions. Supplemental water is required for profitable agricultural production in

Pakistan, either from irrigation or through water harvesting techniques.

The rural population, which represents the backbone of the agricultural sector, is comprised mainly of

small-scale, poor farmers who lack access to modern farming technologies, machinery, fertilizer inputs, as

well as drought and other weather-tolerant seeds. The high price of seeds and a lack of support from

government further restrict farmers from adopting improved techniques. Rural infrastructure lacks properly

built roads, transport and storage facilities, electricity, education and health services. Each of these features

is currently inadequate to meet the requirements of a growing agricultural sector.

8.7 Agriculture and Climate Change Agriculture in our country is significantly affected by short-term climate variability and longer-term climate

change. Pakistan is ranked among the top ten most climate vulnerable countries in the world in the Global

Climate Risk Index. The country has a diversified geography and climate. Climate change threats are

exacerbated in the country due to the arid climate and reliance on water from the glacial melt in the north.

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Periods of severe droughts, followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have contributed

to low crop yields, loss of livestock, damage to irrigation infrastructure and food shortages in recent years.

Economic losses associated to the 2010-2014 floods amounted to US$ 18 billion, affecting the livelihoods

of 38 million people and causing damages to approximately 4.3 million ha of cropland. Changes in climate

have been manifested through long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of the country and

higher glacial melts that contribute to over 70% of river flows. Moreover, the mean temperature across the

country has increased by 0.5°C in the past 30 years.

Changes in monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges to agriculture.

Increases in temperature will likely speed up crop growth cycles and shorten the time between sowing and

harvesting, affecting crop yields. According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index, droughts are

expected to increase in winter, affecting the yield of cash harvests. Meanwhile, increase in precipitation in

the summer season may cause floods throughout different areas of Pakistan.

8.8 Climate Change and Agriculture in Punjab

The province of Punjab has the largest share in the agriculture sector, with 57.1% of the cultivated

land belonging to the province. It produces the majority share of cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane

crops and milk. Extreme temperatures and a changing global climate have serious implications for

the future of agriculture in Punjab. Changing climate affects both cropping patterns as well as crop

productivity through changes in temperatures and precipitation levels. A recent study by Siddiqui

et al (2012) finds that the impact of climate change is statistically significant on crop productivity

in Punjab.

A more recent study finds that maximum temperatures adversely affect wheat production, while

the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards

the yield of a selected crop is negative. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate

change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties

to ensure food security in the Province and country. Although these studies have their statistical

limitations, they have shown that climate change has real and adverse implications for the future

of agriculture in Punjab (Punjab Economic Report, 2017).

The province of Punjab has the largest share in the agriculture sector, with 57.1% of the cultivated

land belonging to the province. It produces the majority share of cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane

crops and milk. Agriculture, predominantly contributes to income generation for the people of the

province. It is imperative to protect the agriculture sector from extreme events and natural hazards.

The change in climatic conditions has a profound effect on the agriculture sector, innately

connected with the environment. Punjab, much like the entire country, suffers from various issues

including climate change and natural disasters. Floods have been the major cause of damages in

the province between 1980-2015. Riverine floods have the largest spread across the province and

have historically affected the greatest number of people, and destroyed property, arable land and

crops (Lead, 2016).

8.9 Climate Change and Agriculture in District Layyah

The agriculture sector has become extremely vulnerable to the climate change. During recent

years, the production of all crops has been affected by the climatic changes, pulses are no

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exception. For instance, production of chickpea/ gram has been badly affected in severe drought

season as its production totally depends upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall, being

cultivated mostly in rain-fed areas.

Gram/Chickpea is one of the most important pulses used in the Punjab. Chickpea/gram is the major

source of livelihood of rural people in the Thal desert of Punjab that is well known as home of

chickpea because the area cannot support/sustain major cash crops due to low fertility and lack of

irrigation. Its production entirely depends upon the intensity and distribution of rainfall.

Thal accounts for the bulk of production of this crop, cultivated on about 2.129 million acres during

2016-17. Gram/chickpea contribute 70-80% to the total pulses area and production. The climatic

uncertainty due to erratic rainfall in the Thal desert is the main obstacle in crop production under

rain-fed conditions. During the drought periods, there is absolutely no produce and even the farmer

has no seed to sow in the next year.

The major reasons for low yield of gram identified by the Arid Zone Research, Institute Bhakkar

are poor sandy soils, erratic rainfall pattern, uneven rainfall distribution, small holdings, less or no

access to quality seed, conventional agronomic practices and poor marketing system.

Supplementary irrigation at critical stages of crop growth in required quantity plays a vital role in

getting the high yield in district Layyah (Business recorder, 2018). The following table reveals the

area, production and yield of chickpea in the district of Layyah. The yield of chickpea has

decreased despite of increase in area under the crop. Major reasons are those mentioned above.

Table 2: Area, Production and Yield of Chickpea in District Layyah

Year Area (000 hec) Production (000

tonnes) Yield (mnds/acre

2012-13 103.3 66.3 6.5

2013-14 230.96 36.8 1.61

2014-15 230.96 25.4 1.11

2015-16 296.44 38.1 1.3

Source: AIMS

15


9. Primary Data Findings

9.1. Issues During consultation with the government, civil society & farmers communities the following issues were

highlighted which are negatively impacting the efforts made by stakeholders to combat the facts of climate

change on agriculture. The key issues are;

1. Lack of coordination/communication between stakeholders and communities

2. Insufficient, skilled & technical human resources in government line departments

3. Lake of prioritization by Government institutions for policy development regarding climate change

4. Insufficient allocation of financial resources for Climate Change

5. Inflexibility of polices implemented in different regions without considering local dynamics

6. Less focus on community awareness raising regarding climate change adaptation

7. Communities are not introduced to progressive farming techniques that are more water

conservative

8. Knowledge of crops and cropping patterns

9. Change in rain fall pattern

10. Soil erosion is also critical issues in flood affected areas

11. Use of chemical Pesticides are doing harm to the environment and crops varieties

12. Depletion of forest

9.2. Effects 1. Reduction in agriculture Crops productivity

2. Lesser utilization of land

3. Less opportunities for agriculture labor

4. Change in cropping timing

5. Deforestation is contributing in flooding and rise in temperature)

6. Livestock fodder availability reduced

7. Animal mortality increasing day by day

8. Worsened household food security condition

9. Increased migration trend in the communities

9.3 Recommendations

Soft Measures

1. Introduction of drought resistant crops varieties to farmers living in drought affected UCs of

district Layyah

2. Government should also consider public private partnership and involving agriculture research

institutes to find effective and efficient ways to fight climate change impact on agriculture and

agriculture communities

3. Introduction of Short duration and high return crops to farmers

4. Community should be given awareness on tree plantation to minimize the effects on climate

change

5. Introduction of disease and pest free crops to farmers

6. Farmer need to be education on climate resilient farming

7. Imparting technical knowledge and skills to farmers by establishing farmer schools/advisory

centres

8. Networking with other forums working on smart agriculture techniques

9. Improved coordination among government line departments and with other stakeholders

16


10. Exposure visit for farmers to learn about new agriculture practices and researches

11. Documenting indigencies practices to use this knowledge base to adopt best practices

12. Pictorial resource material (IEC) on climate change impact and its impact on agriculture needs to

be made available at community level

13. Re-schedule of sowing pattern of crops

14. Adopt best practices (saving soil test, water, usage of land leveler, low usage of poisons/pesticides/

Fertilizers/chemical

15. Community should encourage to do versified farming to better utilized their land and resources

Hard Measures

1. Efficiency of canal systems/water channeling needs to be improved

2. Government should also promote alternate energy options in the areas where no electricity is

available for pumping of the water to the fields

3. A careful assessment need to conducted to identify mitigation measures to minimize community

crops/property losses during flood

4. Government should grow and promote less water conservative trees to conserve water

5. Government should consider small dams water shortage facilities for agriculture

6. Provision of environment friendly seeds to the farmers

7. Provision of Agriculture equipment’s and machinery

8. Provision of approved quality seeds

9. Provision of Kitchen Gardening kits and seeds to encourage communities to grow vegetables to

meet their food security needs

10. Special attention should be given on proper land leveling to reduce water losses

10. LAPA Framework The LAPA Framework consists of seven steps for integrating climate change resilience into local-to

national planning processes. The steps involved in preparing and implementing local adaptation plans for

action are shown in Figure 4 and include:

1. Climate change sensitisation

2. Climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment

3. Prioritization of adaptation options

4. Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action

5. Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes

6. Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action

7. Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action

Each step is detailed in the following sub-sections outlining why each step is important, the actions to be

undertaken and the tools that can be used.

17


Figure 3: Steps of LAPA (from GoN, 2011)

10.1 Climate Change Sensitisation Effective adaptation planning that addresses the potential impacts of climate change requires information

on climate induced impacts, potential adaptation options and challenges and information on how to access

resources for adaptation. Climate change has a differentiated impact on agriculture, men, women and other

social groups. Information collected therefore needs to be available in disaggregated manner considering

gender, age and social status. This information is needed by district decision makers, civil and private sector

stakeholders and climate vulnerable households alike. Sensitizing stakeholders to the impacts of climate

change and to adaptation options is an essential starting point for adaptation planning. Secondly, climate

change sensitisation also supports stakeholders to identify and establish institutions that will directly

implement and/or assist in the implementation of adaptation plans. The likely institutions may include

Agriculture extension & AR department, DDMA, Irrigation, District networks and civil society.

10.2 Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Integrating climate change resilience into local-to-national development planning requires adequate

information on climate vulnerability and adaptation options. In order to make decisions, district planners

need to identify approaches and interventions that will enable the most climate vulnerable communities to

adapt to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and other sectors.

Common Hazard

River Flooding

Droughts

Climate Change (Torrential Rains, Temperature increase, Less rain fall)

Step-1

Sensitisation

(Carried out in all Steps)

Step-2 Vulernerability &

Adaptation Assessment

Step-3 Prioritisation of Adaptaion

Options

Step-4 Formulation of Adaptation

Plan

Step-5 Integration of Adaptation

Plan into Planning Processes

Step-6 Implementation of

Adaptation Plan

Step-7 Review and Progress Assessment

18


River Erosion

Deforestation

The climatic change negatively impacting on rural livelihood of farmers, rural agricultural yield and

production. The incomes of small farmers directly affected on agricultural yield due to climate change.

However, the changes in natural temperature directed cause for the unscheduled rains, flood that cause for

the damage of mature crops of small farmers. The livelihood also causes for the weak health condition of

the community. The agricultural sector (crops and livestock), which is the main source of food and income

(livelihood) for majority of local the people in the area damage.

10.3 Prioritization of Adaptation Options Identified adaptation options would need prioritization with due consideration of climate threats. The

process of prioritising adaptation actions helps decision makers in taking forward a robust set of actions for

implementation. Prioritisation helps ascertain actions that are cost-effective and sustainable and are able to

address the needs of the most vulnerable communities first.

10.4 Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action Developing a Local Adaptation Plan for Action is an essential step in ensuring that prioritised adaptation

options are implemented. The following 5WH framework can be used to develop an adaptation plan:

1. What actions?

2. Where to implement?

3. Who will implement?

4. When to implement?

5. How much will it cost?

10.5 Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes

Integration of adaptation plans into sector and development planning would help to address climate induced

challenges in an effective and sustainable manner. Integrating LAPA into local-to-national development

planning processes and outcomes allows climate vulnerable men, women, households, communities, wards,

Village Development Committee (VDC) to articulate their adaptation priorities, and draw down on

government, civil and private sector resources for sustainable implementation.

10.6 Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action Implementation of the LAPA is important to bridge the gap between adaptation assessment, planning and

delivery. If the adaptation plan has been prepared in a logical way and the leaders and those who will carry

out the actions including the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) have been identified, then implementation

is simply a matter of carrying out the plan.

10.7 Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action

LAPA Monitoring and Evaluation supports the development planning process in dealing with uncertainty

by collecting and evaluating evidence on the progress and outcomes of the LAPA. Monitoring and

evaluation (M&E) and reviews provides opportunities for learning, reflection and feedback to support

responsive and iterative adaptation planning.

19

11. Framework for Plan of Action

What Action?

Connection to

Thematic

Areas

Where to

implement?

Who will

implement?

When to implement TIMING?

How to

implement

?

What

will it

cost?

Who will pay

(Donor

)?

Activities

Location

Immediate

(Within

Six

months)

Medium

Term

(Within

1-2

years)

Long

Term

(Within

2-5

years)

Methods

Amount

of

Money

Donor/

Implementing

Agencies

MHVA need to be conducted to

identify mitigation measures to

minimize community

crops/property losses during

disaster

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

District Layyah Agriculture research,

PDMA

DDMA

Agriculture

Engineering

Departments

Agriculture

Universities

NGOs

Research Institutes

Situational

analysis/

Vulnerability

Assessment

To be

added

Government

(DDMA, MET

department)

Introduction of drought resistant

crops varieties to farmers living

in drought affected UCs of

district Layyah

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension & AR

Livestock

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Civil society

Consultation

meetings &

Focused Group

Discussion

(FGDs)

To be

added

Government

(Ayub

Agriculture

Institute &

Met

Department) and

Universities

Adaptive

research

Public private partnership and

involving agriculture research

institutes to find effective and

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

Agriculture

Extension & AR

Irrigation

Consultation

meetings &

Seminars

To be

added

Government

(EPA, EPD, and

Ministry of

20


efficient ways to fight climate

change impact on agriculture

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Pest Control

Companies

Civil society

Environment)

Haswani Group,

Seed

Companies,

Ali Akbar

group,

Bayer,

AYOVAL

Introduction of Short duration

and high return crops to farmers

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension & AR

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Civil society

Trainings

sessions,

Consultation

meetings &

Transformation

of cropping

schemes

To be

added

Government

Agriculture

Extension

Introduction of disease and pest

resistant crops to farmers

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension & AR

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Pest control

companies

Civil society

Consultation

meetings &

Focused Group

Discussion

(FGDs)

Farmer Field

Schools

Productive

centers

Government

incentives

To be

added

Government

Research

institute

Agriculture

Extension

departments

Entomology and

Pathology

department

Farmer education on climate

resilient farming

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

adaptation

District Layyah Agriculture

Extension & AR

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Civil society

Consultation

meetings &

Focused Group

Discussion

(FGDs)

To be

added

Government

(Agriculture

Extension &

Agriculture

water

management),

Pest companies

and

Education

Institutes

21


Imparting technical knowledge

and skills to farmers by

establishing farmer

schools/advisory centres

i. Technical

Skills

ii. Agriculture

iii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension & AR

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Civil society

Technical

training

sessions &

Consultation

meetings

To be

added

Government

Agriculture

Extension

NGOs and

Private Sector

Networking with other forums

working on smart agriculture

techniques

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

adaptation,

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Government line

departments

NGOs

Farmers groups

Civil society

Monthly

Consultation

meetings with

focal persons

recommended

by

departments,

seminars and

workshops

Development

of Web portal

Media

Messages,

Mobile apps,

To be

added

Government,

INGOs and

Media

Exposure visit for farmers to

learn about new agriculture

practices and researches

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension & AR

Irrigation,

Agriculture

Universities

NGOs

Exposure visits

to government

farms, private

Farms.

To be

added

Government

Universities,

NGOs and

Private Sector

Documenting indigencies

practices to use this knowledge

base to adopt best practices

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation


Universities

NGOs

Farmer Groups

Documentation

of Case study

& best

practices,

Video

Documentaries

To be

added

Government

Media and

Social Media

22


IEC Material on climate change

and its impact at community

level.

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation


Extension

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

INGO/NGOs

Civil society

Awareness

raising

campaign,

Advertisement

campaign,

Social Media

Campaign,

Radio

Messages, Tv

programs

To be

added

Government

Media and

Mobile

companies

Re-schedule of sowing pattern

of crops

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation


Extension & AR

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

NGOs

Research &

Model forms

To be

added

Government

(Agriculture

Extension,

Research

Institute &

Agronomist)

Formation of agriculture and

seasonal calendar

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation


Extension & AR

Agriculture

Universities

NGOs

Coordination

meetings with

all relevant line

agencies

To be

added

Government

(Agriculture

Extension,

Agriculture

specific experts)

Community should encourage

to do diversified farming to

better utilized their land and

resources

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension

Irrigation

Agriculture

Universities

NGOs

Community

meetings,

awareness

raising,

advocacy

To be

added

Government

UN/Bilateral

Donors &

INGOs

Awareness on tree plantation to

minimize the effects on climate

change

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation


Extension & AR

Agriculture

Universities

NGOs

Research &

model farms,

revision of

forest use

policy. Land

ownership to

To be

added

Government

(Forest

department,

Education

institutes) and

NGOs.

23


Agriculture

graduates

Efficiency of canal

systems/water channeling needs

to be improved

i. Irrigation

ii. PIDA

District Layyah Irrigation

Department

Agriculture

Universities

Advocacy,

land leveling,

Rehabilitation

and

construction

of canals,

water policy

To be

added

Government

(Irrigation and

PIDA) and

NGOs

Provision of climate resilient

seeds varieties to farmers

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation


Extension & AR

Agriculture

Universities

Seed producers

NGOs

Training

sessions &

Community

meetings

To be

added

Punjab Seed

Corporation,

Private

Corporation and

NGOs

Government should grow and

promote less water conservative

trees to conserve water

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

adaptation

iii. DRR

iv. Food

Security

v. Nutrition

vi. Health

vii. Livelihood

viii. Livestock

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Government line

departments

Donor organizations

INGOs

Need

assessment &

Distribution of

machinery

equipment

To be

added

Government,

Forest

Department,

UN/Bilateral

Donors &

INGOs

Provision of Kitchen Gardening

kits and seeds to encourage

women farmers to grow

vegetables to meet their food

security needs

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

iii. DRR

iv. Food

Security

v. Nutrition

vi. Health

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Agriculture

Extension

NGOs

Community

training

sessions &

provision of

seeds and kits

To be

added

Government

UN/Bilateral

Donors &

INGOs

24


vii. Livelihood

Proper land leveling to reduce

water losses

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

Adaptation

UC Nawakot &

UC Chobara

including seven

UCs of drought

prone of Layyah

Government Line

Departments

Donor Organizations

Survey, plan

development

for land

leveling, Land

leveling

To be

added

Government,

(Agriculture

Engineering,

Water

Management,

Agronomy

Department)

UN/Bilateral

Donors and

INGOs

Government consider small

dams water shortage facilities

for agriculture

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

adaptation

UC sumra & UC

lohanch

Government Line

Departments

Survey and

Construction

Plan

Development

& Construction

of Small Dams

To be

added

Government

(Irrigation

Department &

Agriculture

Engineering)

Promote alternate energy

options in the areas where no

electricity is available for

pumping of the water to the

fields

i. Agriculture

ii. Climate

Change

adaptation

District Layyah Government Line

Departments,

Bilateral Donors &

INGO/NGO

Consultation

meetings &

Focused Group

Discussion

(FGDs)

To be

added

Government

UN/Bilateral

Donors, INGOs

and Private

Sector

local adaptation plan of action (lapa)-district layyah...1 human development report 2011, united...

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