DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

LNG intelligence

1

Understanding Today’s Supply Options for Marine LNG – Modelling the Marine Demand for LNG

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Ships

2

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

LNG fuelled ships in operation today

3

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

A visible share of the world fleet order book is LNG fuelled

4

1 1 1 3 3 3 4 8 9 15 21 25

35 45

56

75 88 88 88 88 88 88

30 52

77 85 91 93

14

35

52

64 67

70 70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Num

ber

of s

hips

Year of delivery

Ships in operation Ships on order LNG ready ships

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Beyond Norway – LNG fuelled shipping goes global

5

Updated 7 November 2016 Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels

5515

86 0 4

Operating area of the 88 ships in operation

NorwayEuropeAmericaAsia & PacificMiddle EastGlobal

8

4320

41

22

Operating area of the 98 ships in the confirmed orderbook

Norway

Europe

America

Asia & Pacific

Middle East

Global

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

LNG is leaving Norwegian niches

6

Updated 7 November 2016 Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels

1

28

2

94

14 4

19

3 27

23 3

14

1311

10

1

16

6

53

6

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Bulk

ship

Car c

arrie

r

Car/

pass

enge

r fer

ry

Cont

aine

r shi

p

Crui

se sh

ip

Gas c

arrie

r

Gene

ral C

argo

HSLC

Oil/

chem

ical

tank

er

Patr

ol v

esse

l

PSV

RoPa

x

Ro-R

o

Tug

Spec

ializ

ed v

esse

l

In operation On order

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Future demand

8

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Forecast methodology

Current energy demand

AIS tracks

Ship data

Regional filter

Future LNG

demand

Efficiency gains

LNG uptake

9

Baseline LNG demand forecast

Shipping growth

For each segment

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Ship tracks and selected geography

10

27/11/2016

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Analysis of ship segment

11

40%

20% 30%

50%

10% 0%

2000 1995 2005 1900 1980 1990 2015 2010

65% Rest of World

Area in scope

80%

40%

60%

0%

20%

100%

200 100

20% of vessels account for 53% of

energy demand

Total energy demand by area (in %)

Relevant energy demand by year built cluster (in %; lowest year in cluster shown)

Energy demand concentration (in %; vessels sorted by volume)

Seasonality (in %; by quarter)

0%

20%

10%

30%

40%

Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4

Source: DNV GL AIS based analysis; IHS

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Ship type segmentation in fuel demand

12

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2020 2025 2030 2050

Container ships

Tankers

Bulk carriers

General cargo

Car carriers

Passenger ship

Ro-Ro

Ro-Pax

Other

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016 13

Traffic density heat map – shiptype A

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Ungraded

28 November 2016 14

Traffic density heat map – shiptype B

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Scenario forecast

15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

2020 2025 2030 2035

rela

tive

fu

el d

eman

d

year

Low scenario

Basic scenario

High scenario

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Forecast methodology

Future LNG

demand Future bunker volumes

New business – fair share

Established patterns

16

LNG demand forecast

Bunker volume forecast

OR

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

Infrastructure

18

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016 19

Light blue: under discussion

Dark blue: decided

Green: in operation Source: www.dnvgl.com/lngi

Global infrastructure for LNG bunkering source: www.dnvgl.com/lngi

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

conclusion

20

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

LNG bunker demand modelling features:

– When

– Where

– Which ship type

– How much

As basis for investment decisions for LNG bunker suppliers and LNG supply chain developers

As basis for rule making decisions, e.g. national policy frameworks

21

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

www.dnvgl.com

22

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016

23

DNV GL © 2016

Ungraded

28 November 2016 24