lng – an emerging giant “how the growing lng trade might affect the conventional tanker...
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LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd.Audrey House16-20 Ely PlaceLondon EC1P 1HPRiccardo CrivariTel: +442076671164 +447789926131
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
INTERTANKO 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
Electricity GenerationPlants (CCGT)
Industrial, Chemical sector as feedstock
Residential/Commercial Heating-AC
Dry Natural Gas
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
Electricity GenerationPlants (CCGT)
Industrial, Chemical sector as feedstock
Residential/Commercial Heating-AC
Dry Natural Gas
LNG transportation
LNG
REGASIFICATION & GAS NETWORK
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Electricity GenerationPlants
LNG transportation basically competes with…..
REFINING
MERCADO INTERNO
Industrial, Chemical sector as feedstock
Residential/Commercial Heating-AC
Crude Oil
Fuel Oil
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Electricity GenerationPlants
REFINING
MERCADO INTERNO
Industrial, Chemical sector as feedstock
Residential/Commercial Heating-AC
Crude Oil
Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil
LNG transportation basically competes with….. DPP trading in Tankers
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
DPP trading in Tankers is a well-establishedmature business
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LIQUID
Abundant Supply
Sophisticated & Transparent Price Scheme
Markets
Physical(Wet/Cash) Paper
WIDE RANGE OF PARTICIPANTS
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
FLEXIBLE
Wide availability of vessel size & type
STS operations & Back-haul schemes mature
WIDE COMBINATION OF FLEET OWNERSHIP: Majors, Independent Owners, Traders/Charterers as disponent Owners.
BLENDING
Plenty Storage available and easy to operate
Standard or Tailor Made Blending
BUSINESS ACTIVITY COVER ANY RANGE OF SCHEMES:(SPOT, SHORT TERM, MEDIUM TERM, LONG TERM)
Oil a Commodity “The Transportation & Handling”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Trading still has some miles to catch up
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
RIGID
Traditional Supply-Driven Model
Conservative and Vertically Integrated Business
Very Capital Intensive
LONG-TERM PRICING CONTRACTS AS
DRIVING FORCE TO GUARANTEE IRR
RIGID DESTINATION CLAUSES – LNG
quality is an issue
FEW & SELECTED RANGE OF
PARTICIPANTS
LNG “The Commodity” “The Transportation & Handling”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
SHIPPING CAPACITY AS A FUNCTION OF WHOLE
PROJECT (Transportation cost comprises about 25% of
total LNG chain cost)
LNG SHIPPING OPERATION IS VERY PRUDENT &
CONSERVATIVE.
OWNERSHIP SCHEME LIMITED TO OIL & GAS
MAJORS AND STATE-OWNED COMPANIES (High
entry barrier)
LNG or DRY NAT. GAS STORAGE TO TRADE
VERY LIMITED (High cost)
LIMITED BLENDING OPTIONS (only possible in
distribution gas networks)
MAJORITY OF LNG CONTRACTS LONG-TERM (20+ YEARS)RIGIDITIES IN THE SYSTEM LIMIT SHORT-TERM TRADING
(CURRENTLY AROUND 8% TOTAL LNG VOLUME TRADED)
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
On “Commodity” Trading
-LNG competes with Oil/Fuel Oil mainly in the Pacific Basin & Europe generating a demand shift between the commodities
Is there any current impact evident?
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
On Shipping
-In essence the transportation of each commodity keeps its own path and rhythm without any apparent effect on each other.
On “Commodity” Trading
Is then any current impact evident?
-LNG competes with Oil/Fuel Oil mainly in the Pacific Basin & Europe generating a demand shift between the commodities
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
On Shipping
-In essence the transportation of each commodity keeps its own path and rhythm without any apparent effect on each other.
On “Commodity” Trading
Is then any current impact evident?
AND WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE..
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CURRENT IMPACT ON SHIPYARD SPACE AND THE RETURNS REQUIRED BY OWNERS ON TANKER NEWBUILDINGS DUE TO PROGRESSIVE SHIPYARD
PRICE INCREASES AS A RESULT OF MASSIVE LNG CARRIER ORDERS.
-LNG competes with Oil/Fuel Oil mainly in the Pacific Basin & Europe generating a demand shift between the commodities
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
World LNG Demand Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
Tonn
es p
er y
ear (
mtp
a)
Base Case Low Case High Case
LNG should progressively capture a big stake as energy source
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Current LNG
ShareMark
et
Sh
are
Gro
wth
Growth in WW Energy Demand/Consumption
• First: to fill the “gap” of energy shortage due to declining oil production & increase
WW energy demand
• Then: to displace, since LNG seen as most environmentally sound form of energy
Future LNG Position
2004 2015
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LNG Oil Coal
GROWTH COMPARISON BY FUEL, WORLD 2002-2015(BASE INDEX 2001=100)
LNG supply will pass from 142 mtpa (2004) to 345.7 mtpa by 2015
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG should progressively capture a big stake as energy source
LNG Growth Driving Forces
INCREASINGLY, THE PRICING REFERENCE WILL SHIFT FROM OIL-BASED TO GAS ON GAS PRICE COMPETITION
LNG developing pricing-hubs in geographical areas and increasingly driven by electricity prices
THE EFFECT OF MARKET REFORM (Price & Logistics) WILL DISTRIBUTE RISK AMONG THE PARTICIPANTS ALONG THE LNG CHAIN
FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT TO A MODEL BASED ON MARKET DEMANDGas & Power Sector Liberalization and Deregulation
GLOBAL GAS MARKET
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG should progressively capture a big stake as energy source
LNG Contract Terms Outlook
Buyers are able to secure more favourable terms:Relaxation on destination clauses with flexibility in volumes and price mechanisms.Tendency towards FOB rather than Ex-ShipSuppliers to account for seasonality
LONG-TERM DEALS WILL STILL PREVAIL
WHICH MEANS
BUT POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY AND TERMINAL CAPACITY WILL OUTWEIGH DEMAND
GROWTH WHEN COMPARED TO BASE CASE. IT IS LIKELY THAT LNG TRADING WILL BE CONSOLIDATED AS A BUYER’S MARKET FOR THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM
THE EMERGENCE OF A SHORT-TERM/SPOT MARKET WILL PROGRESSIVELY DEVELOP
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG should progressively capture a big stake as energy source
WHAT IS NEEDED FOR SHORT-TERM LNG TRADING
Global Gas Market
SURPLUS & QUALITY
COMPATIBLE PRODUCTION
CAPACITY
SHIPPING CAPACITY
EFFECTIVE MARKET DEMAND
FOR SURPLUS LNG
FLEXIBILITY IN CONTRACT &
TEMINALS
Liquidity
Uncertainty
Arbitrage Opportunities
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Existing Fleet end 2004World fleet (trading) 155Newbuildings delivered in 2004 20Total current fleet 175
Newbuildings -Vessels on firm orders 107 -Options to be declared 16-Net Projected Ships through tenders 37
All are minimum 135,000 m3, except one vessel of 2,500 m3, one vessel of 19,100 m3 and two vessels of min 74,000 m3.
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
Current Balance
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
LNG Fleet Forecast
507090
110130
150170190210230250270290310330
350370390410430
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
# sh
ips
LNG fleet confirmed LNG fleet confirmed + options LNG fleet required
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
LNG Fleet Forecast
507090
110130
150170190210230250270290310330
350370390410430
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
# sh
ips
LNG fleet confirmed LNG fleet confirmed + options LNG fleet required
Effective Surplus of Tonnage
Effective Deficit of Tonnage
PRESSURE ON FREIGHT RATES
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
2009 2010 2011 2012Accumulated
Required Vessels to achieve Zero deficit (*) 7 34 36 40 117
Shipyard LNG carriers potential annual production capacity (APC)
Shipyards # Vessels Potential Increase
Daewoo 9Samsung 7Hyundai 8 12 (by
2010)Kawasaki 3Mitsubishi 3Mitsui 3Izar 4Chantiers de L'Atlantique 3Hudong-Zhonghua 2 4 (by 2010)
Total Potential LNG/c Capacity 42 48
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Highest Historic Delivery Capacity 20
(*) Considers firm orders plus options up to 2011
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
2009 2010 2011 2012Accumulated
Required Vessels to achieve Zero deficit (*) 7 34 36 40 117Shipyard Slots available a/c Potential Capacity 32 31 28 48 139
Shipyard LNG carriers potential annual production capacity (APC)
Shipyards # Vessels Potential Increase
Daewoo 9Samsung 7Hyundai 8 12 (by
2010)Kawasaki 3Mitsubishi 3Mitsui 3Izar 4Chantiers de L'Atlantique 3Hudong-Zhonghua 2 4 (by 2010)
Total Potential LNG/c Capacity 42 48
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Highest Historic Delivery Capacity 20
(*) Considers firm orders plus options up to 2011
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
2009 2010 2011 2012Accumulated
Required Vessels to achieve Zero deficit (*) 7 34 36 40 117Shipyard Slots available a/c Potential Capacity 32 31 28 48 139Shipyard Slots available a/c historic deliveries 12 5 2 22 41
Shipyard LNG carriers potential annual production capacity (APC)
Shipyards # Vessels Potential Increase
Daewoo 9Samsung 7Hyundai 8 12 (by
2010)Kawasaki 3Mitsubishi 3Mitsui 3Izar 4Chantiers de L'Atlantique 3Hudong-Zhonghua 2 4 (by 2010)
Total Potential LNG/c Capacity 42 48
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Highest Historic Delivery Capacity 20
(*) Considers firm orders plus options up to 2011
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Fleet Vectors (2008-2012)
Even at full Shipyard potential capacity and “all going well and as planned”, the fleet breakeven balance point might be only achievable some time during 2011. However, registered highest Shipyard production so far accounts for only 20 vessels/year which would move the breakeven fleet balance point to 2015 or further.
Shipyards prices are still increasing, affecting Capex and ROI evaluations of most of the LNG orders to be delivered from 2008 to 2010+.
Upward pressure on freight rates only bear a strong probability of occurrence after mid/end-2008. Could be only mitigated if vessels became available long before projects enter in operation.
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Historic & Simulated Impact over Freight Rates
120
Time Charter RateskUS$/day
1999 2003 2005
100
80
f( Shipyard Technology improvement, Strong $ & Tight Balance)
f( Shipyard Efficiency and Surplus of Tonnage)
60
40
Historic
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
6% to 8% Surplus
1%to 5% Surplus
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Historic & Simulated Impact over Freight Rates
Time Charter RateskUS$/day
1999 2003 2005 2007
f( Shipyard Technology improvement, Strong $ & Tight Balance)
f( Shipyard Efficiency and Surplus of Tonnage)
f( Shipyard Efficiency and Surplus of Tonnage)
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
120
100
80
60
40
15% (E)Surplus
Ceiling (E) 62,000 $/d
Floor (E) 45,000 $/d6% to 8% Surplus
1%to 5% Surplus
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Historic & Simulated Impact over Freight Rates
Time Charter RateskUS$/day
1999 2003 2005 2007 2012
f( Shipyard Technology improvement, Strong $ & Tight Balance)
f( Shipyard Efficiency and Surplus of Tonnage)
f( Shipyard Efficiency and Surplus of Tonnage)
15% (E)Surplus
f( Higher Shipyard Costs Currency uncertainty & Tight
Balance)
Ceiling (E) 62,000 $/d
Floor (E) 45,000 $/d
2008 2009……..
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
6% to 8% Surplus
Could reach sustained
10% deficit
Change of Trend ?
1%to 5% Surplus
120
100
80
60
40
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
Standard 145,000 m3, membrane type, LNG carrier
Investment: 100% Equity 200 M$
Economic Life: 25 years
Depreciation Period: Straight Line 20 years
Resale Value: End of E.L. 30% Original Price Value
Time Charter Ranges ($/day): CASE 1 CASE 2 -Floor 45,000 80,000 -Ceiling 62,000 120,000
Currency: Constant 2005 US$ Dollars
Standard OPEX costs
Evaluation Assumptions:
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Ship Investment Return
12.3%
22.50%
3.7%
7.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
45000 62000 80000 120000Time Charter $/day
ROI
Floor Case 1 Ceiling Case 1 Floor Case 2 Ceiling Case 2
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
Preliminary Results
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Ship Investment Return
12.3%
22.50%
3.7%
7.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
45000 62000 80000 120000Time Charter $/day
ROI
Floor Case 1 Ceiling Case 1 Floor Case 2 Ceiling Case 2
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
CURRENT OVERALL OIL TANKER ROI EXPECTATIONS
Preliminary Results
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Ship Investment Return
12.3%
22.50%
3.7%
7.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
45000 62000 80000 120000Time Charter $/day
ROI
Floor Case 1 Ceiling Case 1 Floor Case 2 Ceiling Case 2
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
Investment Decision LNG/c
Oriented
Investment Decision Tanker
Oriented
Preliminary Results
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Current LNG shipping contract returns expectations are low and might
extend up to mid-2008 with potential recovery after 2009+ but for an
uncertain period of time.
LNG shipping Opex are high because of the need to maintain safe
operations. Shaving costs to the extreme in LNG shipping operations equates
to substantial increase in risk.
The LNG approach of “long-term contracts at reasonable returns with high
quality operators” will always be the preferred, although costly, model
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
The Challenges
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
New LNG projects increase the complexity of the trading with a wider set
of trade flows, numerous destinations, significant round-voyage times and
part-cargoes (coastal trades)
Project Fleets to become more sophisticated and creative in managing a
portfolio of supply obligations with limited storage capacity.
LNG projects will require an increasing amount of flexible spare shipping
capacity to manage and secure excess spot cargoes into the highest value
gas market outlet.
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
The Opportunities
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Do the Homework: study, learn and dedicate time to understand the
LNG transportation facts and its differences with Bulk shipping
High Entry Barriers can be overcome with conservative solutions:
-“Go alone” in this business can be very
costly
Joint-Investments in regasification capacity and niche shipping
segments
Decision Making Process Cost - Opportunity Analysis
LNG Shipping Investment
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
The Strategies
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Crew availability and cost:
Although LNG ships require some different skills, the need for talented right people will
affect Bulk shipping (including LPG vessels)
Shipyard space and prices:
Availability of slots will be crucial. Prices continue to increase and Shipyards are focusing on
big returns from LNG vessel construction due to massive orders in place and expected,
therefore affecting the economic willingness to dedicate effort to other segments
Owner’s portfolio of Investment:
Investing in LNG shipping could be a solid step taken for the future generating steady
reasonable returns, but it could definitely affect the capacity to participate in other shipping
segments
…………and the Future is here, so where is the impact?
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
“There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate : when he cannot afford it and when he can”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
Mark Twain
…………Is it then worth thinking twice about how, when and whereto invest in LNG transportation?
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005Audrey House16-20 Ely PlaceLondon EC1P 1HPRiccardo CrivariTel: +442076671164 +447789926131
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
INTERTANKO 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LNG Oil Coal
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
World Demand & Supply Outlook
GROWTH COMPARISON BY FUEL, WORLD 2002-2015(BASE INDEX 2001=100)
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
World LNG Demand Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million Tonnes per year (mtpa)
Base Case Low Case High Case
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mtpa
America Europe Asia
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
World LNG Demand Forecast(Regional Basis)
Base Case Scenario
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
Natural Gas is the favoured fuel and LNG Trade will expand dramatically
A Global gas market will consolidate but will never be like the oil market
Technological changes must not be underestimated
A two-tier market will clearly develop, with traditional long-term contractual model supplemented by the spot market whose emergence needs flexibility, risk sharing, meeting LNG quality specs, terminal compatibility and most important of all effective shipping capacity
High entry barriers and rigidities in the system will continue and place a ceiling on the proportion of LNG which will be traded on a short-term basis
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, April 2005
LNG – The Giant
CONCLUSIONS
LNG – An Emerging Giant“How the growing LNG trade might affect the conventional Tanker Industry”
LNG Fleet Assumptions
Some of new projects consider utilization of up to 250,000 m3
Current Supply Contracts to expire during this period will be extended, and in some cases increased, with shipping commitments attached
Planned export projects are brought on-stream as programmed
Zero Scrapping, but longer idle period and higher expenses in drydock for 40 year-old vessels by 2007-2012 period
E A Gibson Shipbrokers, December 2004
LNG MARKET ANALYSIS
LNG Shipping Capacity Picture
Balance Forecast