lloyd wright deutsche gesellschaft fur technische zusammenarbeit ( gtz) gmbh climate change and...
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Lloyd WrightDeutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH
Climate change and transport in developing nations
The transport sector and greenhouse gas emissions
Sector Percent of totalemissions
Average growthrate (1990-1995)
Industry 42% 0.4
Transport 26% 2.4
Residential buildings 20% 1.0
Commercial buildings 9% 1.0
Agriculture 3% 0.8
Total 100% 1.0
Transport and the UNFCCC mechanisms
Programme Total number of projects
Number of transport projects
Activities Implemented Jointly
186 projects 0 projects
Finland 7 CDM projects
5 JI projects
0 projects
Netherlands (ERUPT / CERUPT)
18 CDM projects
8 JI projects
0 projects
World Bank (Prototype Carbon Fund)
9 CDM projects
4 JI projects
0 projects
Global Environment Facility (GEF)
566 13 (6 on fuel cells)
Framework for transport emissions
Transport emissions per mode
=Number of vehicles
xDistance travelled
x
Emissions per vehicle
distance travelled
Mode share(behaviour)
Land-use(urban form)
Fuel efficiency(technology)
Land-use Zoning Route structure Vehicle mgmt.
Fuel type Propulsion system Maintenance Driver behaviour Dedicated lanes Dwell times
Affordability Comfort Convenience Load factor Safety Security Travel time
Mode share versus technology
The impact of gaining one more bus load of passengers
Assumptions: 120 passenger bus at 50% occupancy5 people switching from autos, 35 switching from other motorised vehicles, and
15 switching from non-motorised transport
Source: International Energy Agency, 2002
Bu
s eq
uiv
alen
ts
Conclusions of mode share vs. technology
“Regardless of whether a bus is ‘clean’ or ‘dirty’, if it is reasonably full it can displace anywhere from 5 to 50 other motorised vehicles...”
“Certainly, a cleaner bus will yield lower emissions, but in this scenario the emission reductions from technology choice are overshadowed by reductions from mode switching (and the resulting ‘subtraction’ of other vehicles)...Dramatic reductions in road space, fuel use, and most emissions can be achieved through displacing other vehicles with any bus, even the ‘Euro 0’ buses typically sold in the developing world.”
Source: IEA, 2002
Bus rapid transit (BRT)
Bus Rapid Transit€ 0.3 - 10 million / km
Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that mimics the rapidity and performance of
metros but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles.
Bogotá’s “TransMilenio” BRT system
By 2015, TransMilenio will serve 5 million passengers
per day over 388 kilometers of busways.
What do customers want?
Courteous drivers
Aesthetically-pleasing environment
Rapid boarding
Easy to understand maps
Lighting and security
TransMilenio greenhouse gas reductions
Avoiding the “leakage” of older vehicles by scrapping 7.0 to 8.9 older buses for every new articulated bus introduced
20% of TransMilenio users formerly drove private vehicles
Estimated greenhouse reductions for first 30 years of operation: 15 - 25 million metric tons of CO2-equivalents
Complementary measures in Bogotá
Ciclovía Sunday (120 km of car-free roadways)
250 km of high-quality cycleways
World´s largest car-free weekday
World’s longest pedestrian corridor
Major effort to recuperate public space
Restraints on car use
Bogotá’s global impact
Cities with BRT projects in development
Accra, GhanaCape Town, South Africa
Dakar, SenegalDar es Salaam, Tanzania
Beijing, ChinaDelhi, India
Hanoi, VietnamJakarta, Indonesia
Guatemala City, GuatemalaLima, Peru
Mexico City, MexicoSantiago, Chile
Replication
Rouen, France Nagoya, Japan Brisbane, Australia
Curitiba, Brazil Quito, Ecuador Taipei, Taiwan
City transformations
Seoul, South Korea
GTZ Sourcebook
“Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-Makers in Developing Cities”
www.sutp.org
Sample modules
1. Bus rapid transit
2. Non-motorised transport
3. Mass transit options
4. Bus sector reform
5. Mobility management
6. Inspection and maintenance
7. Air quality management
The path to sustainable transport
1. To date, the transport sector has played a surprisingly small role in mitigation efforts under the UNFCCC mechanisms.
2. The current focus on fuel switching has meant that transport measures are generally not cost competitive or realizable in the short term (e.g., fuel cells).
3. However, shifting mode share from private motorised vehicles to public transport and non-motorised transport can enable the transport sector to compete in mitigation efforts.