llad phillips1 social welfare the impact of crime on society
Post on 19-Dec-2015
220 views
TRANSCRIPT
Llad Phillips 1
Social WelfareSocial Welfare
The Impact of Crime on SocietyThe Impact of Crime on Society
Llad Phillips 2
Outline and IssuesOutline and Issues Course logistics: Course logistics: http://www.econ.ucsb.eduhttp://www.econ.ucsb.edu Criminal Justice System (CJS) & economic Criminal Justice System (CJS) & economic
paradigm: where do the values (prices) come paradigm: where do the values (prices) come from to evaluate the states (outcomes) of the from to evaluate the states (outcomes) of the CJS?CJS?
How much crime is there? How do we know?How much crime is there? How do we know? Crime has two effects:Crime has two effects:
Redistribution of welfare from the victim to the Redistribution of welfare from the victim to the perpetratorperpetrator
Opportunity cost or wast of resources for defenseOpportunity cost or wast of resources for defense
Recommended: Economics 160: References - also at The Alternative.
Economics 160 Phillips/Votey Winter 2007 Economics of Crime and Justice
Hour, Location: 8:00-9:15, Buchanan 1940 Instructors: Llad Phillips and Harold L. Votey, Jr. Office Hours: NH 3032, 9:30 - 10:00 TuTh and NH 2056, 9:30 - 10:00 TuTh, by
appointment, respectively Texts: Economics 160: Crime and Justice - A text for this course by Llad
Phillips and H.L. Votey, Jr. (P&V) - and Notes for Economics of Crime and Justice Both are available at The Alternative in I.V.
Midterm Date: Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2007. You will need a scantron sheet and #2 pencil.
Final Date: Friday, March 23, 2007, 8:00 - 11:00 am. You will need a scantron sheet
and #2 pencil.
Lecture Topics and Reading List I. Lecture One: “Introduction: What is the Economics of Crime and Justice?”,
Professor Votey Ch. 1 (P&V) "Introduction" Ch. 2 (P&V) "Formulation of the Crime Model: Theoretical Foundations"
References: E. J. Mishan, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Ch. 3 (RBR) Jack Hirshleifer, "The Expanding Domain of Economics", American
Economic Review, Dec. 1985 (RBR)
II. Lecture Two: “Social Welfare: Impacts of Crime on Society”, Professor Phillips
Ch. 3 (P&V) "Defining Crime and Establishing Policies for Control" Ch. 4 (P&V) "Establishing Monetary Measures of the Seriousness of Crime" References: C. T. Clotfelter, "Urban Crime and Household Protective Measures",
Andreano and Siegfried(Ed.) The Economics of Crime(1980)(RBR)
SERIOUSNESS SURVEY
RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS):
1. HOMICIDE ___2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) ___ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE ___4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE ___5. SELLING HEROIN ___6. AUTO THEFT ___7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 ___8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION ___9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA ___10. SNIFFING GLUE ___
Llad Phillips 7
A Theme for this CourseA Theme for this Course Criminal Justice System is in crisis.Criminal Justice System is in crisis.
Courts have told Governor Schwarzenegger to find Courts have told Governor Schwarzenegger to find housing for prisoners or release them earlyhousing for prisoners or release them early
City and County jails are overflowing and a revolving City and County jails are overflowing and a revolving door policy is in effect. Repeat offenders clog the door policy is in effect. Repeat offenders clog the systemsystem
Not enough judges and prosecutorsNot enough judges and prosecutors
Llad Phillips 8
Llad Phillips 9
Llad Phillips 10
It Has Not Always Been This WayIt Has Not Always Been This Way The Criminal Justice System had been relatively The Criminal Justice System had been relatively
stable in the decade after World War IIstable in the decade after World War II What happened? That is the story of this course.What happened? That is the story of this course. We will review the history of criminal justice in We will review the history of criminal justice in
the 60 years since WW II.the 60 years since WW II. We will suggest policies that will help turn We will suggest policies that will help turn
things around now. In brief, what is needed is things around now. In brief, what is needed is triage, i.e. to use scarce resources that will triage, i.e. to use scarce resources that will improve public safety the most.improve public safety the most.
Llad Phillips 11
Social WelfareSocial Welfare
The Impact of Crime on SocietyThe Impact of Crime on Society
Llad Phillips 12
Questions about crimeQuestions about crime
Is crime a real problem or a media induced Is crime a real problem or a media induced problem?problem?
Is crime an economic problem?Is crime an economic problem? Are we getting our money’s worth for the Are we getting our money’s worth for the
dollars we spend on police, jails, and dollars we spend on police, jails, and prisons?prisons?
Llad Phillips 13
Taking CrimesTaking Crimes
RobberyRobbery BurglaryBurglary Auto TheftAuto Theft LarcenyLarceny
Llad Phillips 14
How is Crime MeasuredHow is Crime Measured
Victimization Surveys of HouseholdsVictimization Surveys of Households U S Dept of Justice, Bureau of Justice U S Dept of Justice, Bureau of Justice
Statistics, Statistics, Criminal VictimizationCriminal Victimization Citizen (Victim) Reports to PoliceCitizen (Victim) Reports to Police
U S Dept of Justice, FBI, U S Dept of Justice, FBI, Uniform Crime Uniform Crime ReportsReports
Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook
http://www.fbi.gov/homepage.htm Uniform Crime ReportsMotor Vehicle Thefts, 1980-1999
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Year
Ra
te
NCVS: per 1000 Households
FBI: per 1000 Registrations
Llad Phillips 16
Measures of Crime: Offense RatesMeasures of Crime: Offense Rates
Thefts per 1000 registrations(FBI) = Thefts per 1000 registrations(FBI) = registrations per household* thefts per 1000 registrations per household* thefts per 1000 households(NCVS)households(NCVS) if registrations per household were growing in if registrations per household were growing in
the 90’s then thefts per 1000 registrations the 90’s then thefts per 1000 registrations would not fall as fast as thefts per 1000 would not fall as fast as thefts per 1000 householdshouseholds
Llad Phillips 17
Crime in California, 2003 http://caag.state.ca.us
Llad Phillips 18
Trends In Crime in California
Source: Crime and Delinquency in California, 2002http://caag.state.ca.us/
Llad Phillips 19
Llad Phillips 20
Violent Crime Mix, CA ‘03Violent Crime Mix, CA ‘03
Llad Phillips 21
Homicide by Weapon, CA ‘03Homicide by Weapon, CA ‘03
Llad Phillips 22
Llad Phillips 23
California Crime Mix
Llad Phillips 24
California Crime Index: Property Crimes
Llad Phillips 25
California: Trend in Robberies Per Capita in 90’s
Llad Phillips 26
Types of Robberies in California, 1998
Llad Phillips 27
California: Armed Robberies, 54% of Total, By Weapon
Llad Phillips 28
Llad Phillips 29
Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics: http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/
Uniform Crime Reports, Crime in the United States, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/03cius.htm
Bureau of Justice Statistics: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/Crime in California, http://caag.state.ca.us/cjsc/pubs.htm
California Department of Corrections, http://www.corr.ca.gov/
Sources of Criminal Justice Information On the InternetSources of Criminal Justice Information On the Internet
Llad Phillips 30
Two Perspectives On CrimeTwo Perspectives On Crime
No ProblemNo Problem It’s BadIt’s Bad
Llad Phillips 31
Crime as Income RedistributionCrime as Income Redistribution
The Robin Hood MythThe Robin Hood Myth Take from the rich and give to the poorTake from the rich and give to the poor
The impact on social welfareThe impact on social welfare depends on your views or valuesdepends on your views or values
socialist versus a capitalistsocialist versus a capitalist
Llad Phillips 34
Crime as a dead weight lossCrime as a dead weight loss Loss of resouces spent on defenseLoss of resouces spent on defense
protection of homesprotection of homes protection of carsprotection of cars protection of bicyclesprotection of bicycles
Resources spent on defense Resources spent on defense could be spent on goods and servicescould be spent on goods and services
in the absence of crimein the absence of crime
The impact on social welfareThe impact on social welfare Unambiguously badUnambiguously bad
Llad Phillips 35
What is the nature of crime?What is the nature of crime?
Income redistribution?Income redistribution? or dead-weight loss?or dead-weight loss?
Llad Phillips 36
Economists Assume You Know What You LikeEconomists Assume You Know What You Like Lingo: economists call these consumer Lingo: economists call these consumer
tastes or consumer preferencestastes or consumer preferences
Victim’s Income
Thief’sIncome
Victim’s Income
Thief’sIncome
Thief’s Preferences 1. More is better, greedy 2. Indifferent to victim
High
Medium
Low
Llad Phillips 39
Economists Assume You Can make ComparisonsEconomists Assume You Can make Comparisons For example: the thief can compare a high For example: the thief can compare a high
level of his income and a low level of the level of his income and a low level of the victim’s income victim’s income withwith a high level of his a high level of his income and a high level of the victim’s income and a high level of the victim’s incomeincome in the case just illustrated, the thief values these in the case just illustrated, the thief values these
the same since his income stays the samethe same since his income stays the same the thief does not care whether the victim’s income the thief does not care whether the victim’s income
is high or low, i.e. he is indifferentis high or low, i.e. he is indifferent
Victim’s Income
Thief’sIncome
Victim’s Preferences 1. more is better, greedy 2. indifferent to the thief
low medium high
Victim’s Income
Thief’sIncome
$6,000
$6,000
Income Distribution
Victim’s Income
$6,000
$6,000
Income Distribution
$12,000
Total or Social Income Line:Thief’s + Victim’s Income
$12,000
Thief’s Income
Victim’s Income
Thief’sIncome
$6,000
$6,000
Income Distribution
$12,000
Total or Social Income Line:Thief’s + Victim’s Income
$12,000
Income Redistribution$9,000
$3,000
Llad Phillips 44
Bad effects from taking crimesBad effects from taking crimes
Victim has less incentive to be productiveVictim has less incentive to be productive Victim has more incentive to spend time Victim has more incentive to spend time
and money on defenseand money on defense Analogous to war: guns vs. butterAnalogous to war: guns vs. butter What is society going to produce?What is society going to produce?
defense against crime?defense against crime? or goods and services?or goods and services?
Victim’s Income
Thief’sIncome
$6,000
$6,000
Income Distribution
$12,000Total or Social Income Line:Thief’s + Victim’s Income
$12,000
Income Redistribution$9,000
$3,000 $11,000
$1,000 socialcost of defense
$11,000
CrimeGeneration
Offense Rate,Damages toVictims
Fear
Media
Defense
Private Public
Llad Phillips 47
Cost to Victims in US, 1993Cost to Victims in US, 1993Offense Loss Rate Reported
OffensesDamages,Billions $
Robbery $13,000 659,757 $8.6
AutoTheft
$4,000 1,561,047 $6.2
Burglary $1,500 2,834,808 $4.3
Larceny $370 7,820,909 $2.4
Total $21.5
Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)
Assaulter’sIncome
Victim’s Income
Total or Social Income
Motivation for Violence: Antagonism
Assaulters Iso-preference Lines
High
Low
Llad Phillips 49
Damages: US Violence, 1993Damages: US Violence, 1993
Offense Loss Rate ReportedOffenses
Damages,Billions, $
Homicide $1,191,000 24,526 $46.8
Rape $87,000 104,806 $9.1
Assault $15,000 1,135,099 $17.0
Total $72.9
Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)
Llad Phillips 50
Types of CrimeTypes of Crime
Motivation: self-interest, greedMotivation: self-interest, greed Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft,
larcenylarceny White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion,
check fraud, telephone fraudcheck fraud, telephone fraud Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant,
beyond control of parentsbeyond control of parents Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugsBlack Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs
Llad Phillips 51
Types of CrimeTypes of Crime Motivation: Hate, RageMotivation: Hate, Rage
Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, raperape
Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorismterrorism
Hate CrimesHate Crimes Columbine HighColumbine High James Byrd: dragging death in TexasJames Byrd: dragging death in Texas Jewish Community Center in Granada HillsJewish Community Center in Granada Hills
Llad Phillips 52
1750 Reported Hate Crimes in California: 1998
Source: Hate Crime in California, 1998
Llad Phillips 53
About 2/3 of Hate Crimes are Violent
Llad Phillips 54
Sources of Informationp. of syllabusSources of Informationp. of syllabus US DataUS Data
Sourcebook of Criminal Justice StatisticsSourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/
Bureau of Justice StatisticsBureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/welcome.htmlhttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/welcome.html
Llad Phillips 55
SummarySummary
Crime is an economic problemCrime is an economic problem loss of resources(dead weight loss) from private loss of resources(dead weight loss) from private
and public defenseand public defense Damages to victims are 3 times as high for Damages to victims are 3 times as high for
crimes against persons compared to crimes crimes against persons compared to crimes against propertyagainst property Total for 7 FBI Index Crimes: $ 95 BillionTotal for 7 FBI Index Crimes: $ 95 Billion
Assaulter’sIncome
Victim’s Income
Total or Social Income
Motivation for Violence: Antagonism
Assaulters Iso-preference Lines
High
Low
Llad Phillips 57
Split Personality BehaviorsJack Hirshleifer: “The Expanding Domainof Economics”
Choice
Work and no violence
Work andbrawl in bars
(Economic Man,motive: self-interest))
(Economic Manwith episodes of antagonism)
choice
Work and no violence
Work andbrawl in bars
expect $24,000/yr
Apprehended: lose 1 month in court andjail, $22,000
0.1
0.9 Not apprehended$24,000
Expected income: 0.1*$22,000 + 0.9*$24,000 = $23,800
Llad Phillips 60
Trends In Crime in California
Source: Crime and Delinquency in California, 1998http://caag.state.ca.us/