1Linking Plug-in Vehicles to Renewable Energy through Smart Grids

Jonn AxsenResource and Environmental Management

Simon Fraser UniversityMay 3, 2013

A vision of “smart grid” with plug-in vehicles?

3

0

500

0 500 1000

Carbon intensity of electricity

GHGImpact

CoalNatural Gas

Regular

Hybrid

Wind, solarsmall hydro

Electric

Different levels of PEV-grid integration

PEVcharged

bygrid

PEVconsumer

buygreen

electricity

“Utilitycontrolledcharging”

of PEV

Vehicle-to-Grid(V2G)

Increasing interaction, engagement, or “smart-ness”

Part 1:

PEV charged by grid. What impacts?

(Energy Policy, 2011)

Integrating demand and supply models

PHEV Design(e.g. B-10)

DrivingPatterns

RechargePotential

Energy useProfile

Demand Model Supply Model

CA ElectricityDemand

Power Plants

Imports

GenerationModel

PHEVGHG emissionsprofiles

GasolineEmissionsFactor

SurveyData

EnergyData

We focus on plausible “early PHEV buyers”

n = 877New Vehicle

Buyers

“Early PHEVMarket”(n=282)

Total(n = 877)

1.Want PHEV2.Home recharge

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am

% ofRespondents

ParkedWithin25 ft. of

ElectricalOutlet

Time of Day (Hours)

Home Potential

(Weekdays, n = 232)

Consumer Recharge Potential: Mostly at home, at night

OtherWork

0

100

200

300

400

12am 8am 4pm 12am

MW per

millionPHEVs

Time of Day (Hours)

“Plug and Play”

Uncontrolled, immediate chargingwould peak at 6pm

0

100

200

300

400

12am 8am 4pm 12am

MW per

millionPHEVs

Time of Day (Hours)

“UniversalWorkplace”

(+25%)

Additional workplace accesswould increase daytime load

“Plug and Play”

0

100

200

300

400

12am 8am 4pm 12am

MW per

millionPHEVs

Time of Day (Hours)

“UniversalWorkplace”

(+25%)“Off Peak”

(-25%)

“Off-peak only” wouldeliminate daytime load

“Plug and Play”

Modeling 2010 and 2020 emissions with EDGE-CA

(McCarthy and Yang, 2010)

CaliforniaGen.Mix

(MW)

NuclearRenewables

Imports

Hydro

NaturalGas

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

12am 8am 4pm 12am

Gas

TonnesCO2Per

MillionVehicles

Time of Day (Hours)

Modeling time of day GHGs:Baseline

1. Regular vehicles

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

12am 8am 4pm 12am

ElectricityGas

TonnesCO2Per

MillionVehicles

Time of Day (Hours)

#2: “User” Plug and Play

= 37% Reduction

“User” PHEVs cut GHGs by one-third

TotalArea

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

12am 8am 4pm 12am

ElectricityGas

TonnesCO2Per

MillionVehicles

Time of Day (Hours)

Increased workplace chargingis less desirable

#3: “User” Workplace

= 36% Reduction

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

12am 8am 4pm 12am

ElectricityGas

TonnesCO2Per

MillionVehicles

Time of Day (Hours)

Off-peak charging is more desirable

#4: “User” Off-peak only

= 38% Reduction

Part 2:

Voluntary markets.Do you want “green electricity”

with that PEV?

(Environmental Research Letters, 2013)

Research Objectives and Method1. Assess interest in PEVs and green electricity programs.2. Does combination increase demand for PEVs? 3. Characterize consumer motivations.

20-minute web-based survey (n = 1502) (3 segments: buyers of conventional, HEV and PEVs)

1. Game 1: PEV design2. Game 2: Green-electricity design3. Game 3: “Combined” design (PEV and Green-E)4. Motivation assessment

0%

20%

40%

60%

% ofsample

Vehicle design

Regularvehicle Hybrid

Plug-inhybrid Electric

25-32%

Game 1: One-third select a PEV design

% ofsample

“Green” electricity design

0%

25%

50%

No program

2-yr lease

Monthly

Current Current solar

Rooftop solar

27-33% Green

program

32-35% Solar

Game 2: Two-thirds select green-electricity

Conventional

Hybrid

Plug-in hybrid

Pure electric

None Greenprogram

Greenlease

Homesolar

31% select a combination

Game 3: And when we offer both together…

% ofsample

0%

50%

100%

Vehicleonly

With greenelectricity

Hybrid

Regular

Plug-in hybrid

Electric

25%select PEV

31%

PEV demand increases by ~20%

Consumer motivations for combiningEnvironment (air quality)Oil politicsSupporting renewablesControl over energyExploring new technology

Part 3:

Considering “Utility controlled charging” for PEVs

(Funded but still unnamed grant, 2012-15)

What is “utility-controlled charging”?

Context: • PEV owners wants to recharge their vehicle• PEV is plugged in longer than total required

charging time (say, only 6 out of 12 hours needed)Opportunity• Electric utility has control over charge timingFraming (Goal)• PEV charging can be “matched” to the availability of

intermittent renewables

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am0

100

200

300

400

12am 8am 4pm 12am

Assessing demand for “utility-controlled charging”

Data collection– Canada-wide survey (in progress)– Metro Vancouver interviews (PEV and car buyers)– Other data? (Charger use?)

Analysis methods– Discrete-choice modeling (PEV and charging)– Excel models of recharge profiles– Energy-economy model of long-term demand (CIMS)– Content analysis of interviews (narratives?)

PEV Survey OverviewSample

– New vehicle buyers– Total:1700 Canadians (not QC),

BC oversample: ~600– Representative for gender, income, age, etc.

Web-based Survey LayoutPart 1: (20 minutes)Knowledge/perceptions of vehicles, electricity, lifestyle, etc.

Part 2: Home recharge assessment + 3 day driving diary

Part 3: (25 minutes)Modeling vehicle and charging preferences

Survey flow:Respondent is given a basic “education” in our terminology, then:1. PEV choice model (vehicle type, electric range,

fuel cost, purchase price)2. PEV “design space”

3. “Charging style” choice model (% renewables, type of “green”, monthly bill, percent guaranteed charge in morning)

4. “Green electricity” design space

A vehicle preference choice experiment

A charging style choice experiment

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am0

100

200

300

400

12am 8am 4pm 12am

Use consumer data to build more sophisticated models of utility-controlled charging in

BC/Canada

Pulling it all together…

Different levels of PEV-grid integration

PEVcharged

bygrid

PEVconsumer

buygreen

electricity

“Utilitycontrolledcharging”

of PEV

Vehicle-to-Grid(V2G)

Increasing interaction, engagement, or “smart-ness”

Staticgrid

Meshingideas ofgreen

Actuallyputting

renewablesinto PEVs

not yet…

Where does all this fit into our Smart Grid partnership?

• Personal transport (linking PEVs to grid)• Grid modernization required for more advanced

linking (utility-controlled charging or V2G)• Understanding consumer perceptions of and willing

to interface with (green) electricity• Consumer relationships with utilities (and potential

for “re-framing” smart grid initiatives)• Link to actual smart grid initiatives in different

jurisdictions