Linia Gopo – Climate Applications

SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST INDICATORS

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)..(ENSO)

SSTS

PRIOR HEATING (e.g. A hot September and October is an indicator for a good summer rainfall season)

WINDS

WESTERLY CLOUD BANDS

TELECONNECTIONS

TRADITIONAL INDICATORS

Probabilistic CPC ENSO Outlook for

2014/2015

Probabilistic CPC ENSO Outlook for2015/2016

ENSO vs SPI Scatter plot for Seasons 1950/1951 to 2009/2010

Lanina gfedcb Neutral gfedcb El Nino gfedcb

20

10

20

08

20

06

20

04

20

02

20

00

19

98

19

96

19

94

19

92

19

90

19

88

19

86

19

84

19

82

19

80

19

78

19

76

19

74

19

72

19

70

19

68

19

66

19

64

19

62

19

60

19

58

19

56

19

54

19

52

19

50

SP

I

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2

ENSO versus Zimbabwe rainfall

Above Normal

Below Normal Total

El Nino 8 38% 13 62% 21

La Nina 10 67% 5 33% 15

Neutral 13 54% 11 46% 24

60

• Region 1 Harare, much of Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West , Mashonaland Central, northeastern parts of Midlands , parts Manicaland

Below normal rainfall expected

• Region 2 & 3 Region 2 The bulk of

Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of MashonalandWest.

Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland and the bulk of Matabeleland South.

Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected

Homogeneous Zones (Oct- December 2015)

• Region 1 & 2Region 1 Harare, much

of Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West , MashonalandCentral, northeasternparts of Midlands , parts Manicaland

Region 2 The bulk of Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of MashonalandWest.

Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected

• Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicalandand the bulk of Matabeleland South.

Normal rainfall with a bias towards above normal rainfall expected

Homogeneous Zones(Nov-Dec 2015-Jan 2016)

Homogeneous Zones(Dec-Feb 2015-Jan 2016)

Region 2The bulk of Matabeleland North, parts of Midlands and parts of MashonalandWest.

• Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected

• Region 1 & 3Region 1 Harare, much of

Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West , Mashonaland Central, northeastern parts of Midlands , parts Manicaland

• Region 3 Masvingo, the bulk of Midlands, the extreme southern parts of Manicalandand the bulk of Matabeleland South.

Normal rainfall with a bias towards above normal rainfall expected

• Region 1 MashonalandProvinces, Harare, most of Manicaland, northern parts of Masvingo and northern parts of Midlands.

Normal rainfall with a bias towards above normal rainfall expected

• Regions 2 and 3 Region 2 Most of

Matabeleland North, northwest Matebeleland South, Bulawayo.

Region3 Most of Masvingo, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland, southeast Matebeleland South and the southern parts of Midlands

Normal rainfall with a bias towards below normal rainfall is expected

Homogeneous Zones (Jan- March 2016)

Implications of the forecast for the 2015/16 rainfall season

• There is a high likelihood of a late start to the season for the whole country.

• A short summer rainfall season (December to February) is expected especially over Region 1.

• Hence an option for small grains, short season variety and staggering plants would be encouraged (Agric)

• There is need to enhance rainfall this season as such the national cloud seeding programmeis highly recommended.

• For those with livestock (a)water points should be preserved and

protected and (b) livestock destocking should be given more

consideration and done timeously to avoid losses.

• It is still possible to harvest grass for fodder in those areas where forest fires have not And those with access to dams with water should compliment their farming with irrigation. been lit

Implications cont………

Start of the Season for Zvishavane

Any day after 1 October when an area recieves 20 mm or more of rain in 3 days or less provided there is no dry spell of 10 days or more in the next 30 days

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

26 Jan

16 Jan

6 Jan

27 Dec

17 Dec

7 Dec

27 Nov

17 Nov

7 Nov

28 Oct

Some Agrometeorological ProductsSeason length for Zvishavane

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

Da

ys

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

End of Season for Zvishavane

When water balance is zero or when there is no moisture available to the plant after a place recieves 10 mm or more

2013

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

5 May

25 Apr

15 Apr

5 Apr

26 Mar

16 Mar

6 Mar

Seasonal total for Zvishavane

2013

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

Sea

sona

l tot

al (m

m)

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

NDATENDA