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Lilla texten som med typsnitt. (ITC AvantGard Gothic)
RiskSpectrum Magazine ispublished by RELCON AB
MAY 2006
R e lT R e e where it all started page 7
Safer Buildings for the Future
newS newS newS newS newSwww.scandpower.com www.relconscandpower.com www.riskspectrum.com
RiskSpectrum Magazine is published by
Relcon Scandpower apRil 2007
Great plans for nuclear in india pages 14-15
natural disasters
A Union made in Risk World!
+RelconScandpower
Read all about the merger on pages 4-6
=
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Lilla texten som med typsnitt. (ITC AvantGard Gothic)
RiskSpectrum Magazine ispublished by RELCON AB
johan Sörman Chief Editor, Relcon Scandpower AB
RiskspectRum magazine apRil 2007
This year, 2007, started with major change for our company. After several years of cooperation, RelcOn and Scandpower joined forces. In nuclear terms, we could use the word fusion to describe our union. Fusion means when two lighter particles get together to form a heavier one and release a lot of energy. I prefer to use the word marriage. Two individuals - in this case our companies - agreed to create a pair, thereby combining the strengths of both parties, leading to greater reward and prosperity for all involved. The two companies comple-mented each other very well, with regard to the know-how, presence on market sectors and company culture. All together contri-butes to making this venture a success.
Climate change and its consequences are on the top agenda for many countries, top politicians and political organisations. Recently a UN-led committee established that recent climate change is mainly caused by human actions, particularly emissions of green house gases.
in October 2006 i visited Australia and New Zealand. My wife and I had this jour-ney in mind for several years and finally we decided to just go for it!
We visited exotic places and saw many animals, several for the first time. During our stay, two news stories dominated the media coverage in Australia: The up and coming World Cricket Series and the
weather, particularly climate change and its influence on daily life. Australia has been suffering from the worst drought that has occurred for hundreds of years. Over large parts of the continent, there has not been any rain for many years. Large rivers have completely dried out and recently forest fires were burning out of control. In Australia it is felt that climate change, accelerated by mankind, is causing these natural disasters.
when we returned from our holidays, we were confronted with an unusually ‘green’ winter in Sweden; the average temperature was several degrees warmer than normal. There was shortage of snow in the north, whilst Western parts of the country suffered from severe floods. Trees were blossoming; and the population was warned about pollen potentially causing allergic reactions. In other words the weather was up-side-down!
I’m sure that we will have many reasons to come back to this subject over the coming years.
Finally, I would like to welcome you to Relcon Scandpower and wish you a prosperous 2007! c
welcome to Relcon Scandpower!
jerzy Grynblat, President
Ph
oto
: thER
ESiA k
öh
lin
Gunilla von Feilitzen Editor and Project leader, GvF Publishing.
Consultant. [email protected]
Riskspectrum magazine is published by Relcon scandpower and distributed to approx. 2500 subscribers in 67 countries world-wide.
For free subscription, contact Relcon Scandpower.
Address Relcon scandpower, Box 1288, se-172 25 sundbyberg, sweden
visiting address englundavägen 9, solna
Tel +46 8 445 21 00 Fax +46 8 445 21 01
e-mail [email protected]
website www.riskspectrum.com
Responsible Publisher Jerzy grynblat, president, Relcon scandpower, [email protected]
chief editor Johan sörman, software sales manager, Relcon scandpower, [email protected]
consultant editor and Project leader gunilla von Feilitzen, gvF publishing,[email protected]
uK consultant editors corporate Risk associates limited, [email protected] swedtranslate, [email protected]
design lotta Westberg layout, [email protected]
Printed in stockholm by alfaprint aB, 2007
Offices in stockholm, göteborg, malmö and uppsala, sweden
Develops and markets Riskspectrum software
provides Risk management consultancy services in:
nuclear power licensing and PSA
Risk Analysis
Health and Safety
Reliability and Maintenance
Quality and Management
Human Factors
product line:
RiskSpectrum®PSA Professional
RiskSpectrum®FT Professional
RiskSpectrum®Analysis Tools (RSAT)
RiskSpectrum®Riskwatcher
RiskSpectrum®FMeA
RiskSpectrum®PSAdoc
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RelcOn ScAndPOweR in BRieF
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cOnTenTSSoftware update Riskspectrum psaDoc - the latest addition to the Riskspectrum family
company news Relcon and scandpower form one of the biggest risk management companies in the world
Software nostalgia RelcOn celebrates 20 years of software development
natural disasters three billion people need better housing – How can we build houses better in areas that suffer from natural disasters?
How To & news update this time we take on the task of explaining the Risk increase Factor.
energy & Politics latest news about energy & politics in different countries
Feature nuclear power is forecasted to increase its share of electricity gene-ration in india from 2 - 20% by 2052
the last few issues of Rs magazine have focused on natural Disasters; later this year we will have a look at what experts envisage for future energy systems. the World energy council (Wec) – an international organisation working on global energy issues – predicts that the world's population will double within 50 - 100 years. consequently electrical energy production will have to double by the year 2050, if it is to keep up with their needs.
johan Sörman Chief Editor
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Lilla texten med outlines
Lilla texten som med typsnitt. (ITC AvantGard Gothic)
RiskSpectrum Magazine ispublished by RELCON AB
MAY 2006
R e lT R e e where it all started page 7
Safer Buildings for the Future
newS
RiskSpectrum Magazine is published by
Relcon Scandpower apRil 2007
Great plans for nuclear in india pages 14-15
natural disasters
A Union made in Risk World!
+RelconScandpower
Read all about the merger on pages 4-6
=
SOFTwARe uPdATe
Offices in stockholm, göteborg, malmö and uppsala, sweden
Develops and markets Riskspectrum software
provides Risk management consultancy services in:
nuclear power licensing and PSA
Risk Analysis
Health and Safety
Reliability and Maintenance
Quality and Management
Human Factors
product line:
RiskSpectrum®PSA Professional
RiskSpectrum®FT Professional
RiskSpectrum®Analysis Tools (RSAT)
RiskSpectrum®Riskwatcher
RiskSpectrum®FMeA
RiskSpectrum®PSAdoc
c
c
c
c
c
c
RelcOn ScAndPOweR in BRieF
c
c
c
c
c
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ediTORiAl
R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 3
From the beginning, Arizona Public Services’ Palo Verde Nuclear Power Station (PVNGS) has shown a keen inte-rest in the development of RiskSpectrum PSADoc. I asked lOnnie BullinGTOn, PSA Engineer at Palo Verde to explain their interest in RiskSpectrum PSADoc:
– A PSA model is made up of assumptions, choices in modelling and facts. Where all of this information is obtained has to be documented to main-tain creditability. Most nuclear power model PSAs are very big, a tool that helps organize the information is essential if there is a desire to maintain an update-able PSA model. As the US nuclear industry progresses and resources come at a premium, a tool to make the job easier becomes necessary.
lonnie continues: – We see the use of PSADoc as being a time saver, a vehicle for ensuring thoroughness by providing a method to maintain like data together, a tool that can provide the intricate links between the model and the pieces of information that created it.
– From past experience we know that if we could generate documentation on demand we would maintain creditability with our reviewers. That in itself would be a huge time saver. Our current inability to provide interested parties with up-to-date information about our model has frustrated us on many occasions.
Using the beta version of RiskSpec-trum PSADoc we found that it was quite easy to input the information from the existing document and then build the document using PSADoc. what are PvnGS´s plans for PSAdoc? – We will be taking a look at how we will start the business of improving our PSA documentation and PSADoc will play an important part in that process. The future of the PVNGS PSA and its usefulness in the current nuclear power arena hinges upon the documentation process, concluded Lonnie Bullington, PSA Engineer at Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station, USA. c
By: johan Sörman
Save Time with PSAdocmany Riskspectrum licensees today see improving their psa documentation process as their biggest
challenge. in the second quarter of 2007, Relcon scandpower will release the first commercial
version of Riskspectrum psaDoc.
FAcTS RiSKSPecTRuM PSAdOcRiskspectrum psaDoc is targe-
ted at supporting the manage-
ment of psa documentation. it is
a tool designed for managing
psa documentation already in
place, but can also replace an
existing documentation system.
in addition, it enhances and
simplifies the management
of psa documentation and
reporting by establishing direct
links between existing docu-
mentation and records in the
psa database within
Riskspectrum psa professional.
Riskspectrum psaDoc manages
all psa documentation in a
structured, searchable, trace-
able form in a database. since
psaDoc can handle all kinds of
existing documents (Word,
excel, Riskspectrum memos,
etc.) there is no need to invest
a lot of time and effort “conver-
ting” documentation to a new
format.
Significant improvements of
the documentation, using psa-
Doc features, can be achieved
gradually.
Once you have set up links
between your psa model
database and the psaDoc
document database (which is
easy), it is simple to update
documents when model chan-
ges are made, since it is easy to
find all documents related to a
certain item in the model.
Systematic use of References,
keywords and links between
documents improve traceability.
use of Data tables, mcs tables,
importance tables, Data Dia-
grams, importance Diagrams
and uncertainty Diagrams
makes it possible to quickly
produce reports including
professionally formatted data,
directly from the latest version
of the psa model database.
this includes many special
types of tables and diagrams
which otherwise would take
many hours of manual work
to produce.
psaDoc offers, for example, possibilities for improved graphical display of Fault trees.
Figure 1. Riskspectrum psaDoc serves as a means to set up templates for generating generic reports using data directly from the psa model. Documentation already in place is linked to the psaDoc database and is easily included in the reports generated by psaDoc.
Footnote: PSA is an abbreviation for Probabilistic Safety Assessment. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) and QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) are often also used.
RiskSpectrum – At the cutting edge
“Our goal is that RiskSpectrum’s collective product line will be at the heart of the new company’s software ‘toolbox’.”
in the discussions prior to the merger of Relcon and Scand-power Risk Management, an important consideration was the RiskSpectrum software. In considering the merger it was appreciated that both companies are well known consultancies in their respective markets, they did not compete for market share – and through merger will complement one another. Add to this the fact that Relcon’s RiskSpectrum products, develo-ped in-house, has a strong brand name and a good reputation in the market which is a real plus factor, according to BjøRn
inGe BAKKen, President of Scandpower AS, in Norway, the pa-rent company of Relcon Scandpower AB in Sweden.
–The fact that a Risk Management company of our size has its own in-house software is an obvious advantage. It gives us a joint, safe platform for many of our analyses. Also, sales, deve-lopment and support of the software are a business concept in themselves. One of our strengths is that is that we use our own software in our consultancy assignments. This automatically
gives a guarantee to our customers that we always are at the cutting edge of technology with regard to the development of our analysis software, says Bjørn Inge Bakken
How will RiskSpectrum’s customers notice that Relcon has merged with Scandpower? – In the longer term we hope to be able to offer a broader soft-ware portfolio and several new services. Through the merger, our wholly-owned subsidiary, Relcon Scandpower AB, has a considerably greater capacity to develop software and better opportunities of offering a broader range and completely new consultant services, and I think our customers will notice that in the future.
Scandpower has over 30 years’ experience of safety ana-lyses in the oil and gas industry. How can your experience within these areas benefit the development of software?– Our oil and gas industry experience will provide an
Relcon aB has merged with scandpower in sweden and formed Relcon scandpower aB. together
with the norwegian parent company, scandpower as, the new company will be among the biggest
consultancy companies in the area of Risk management in scandinavia.
Riskspectrum’s customers can look forward to new products, more services and a continued emphasis on support and training activities. Bjørn inge Bakken, president of scandpower as, norway and Jerzy grynblat, president of Relcon scandpower aB, sweden at the scandpower head office in kjeller, norway.
Bjørn inge Bakken, President of Scandpower AS in norway
4 R i SkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007
Setting the Standard for the Scandpower Group Software
RiskSpectrum – At the cutting edge
important input to the further development of RiskSpec-trum, even though much of the methodology we use is the same as that used in the nuclear power industry.
– Scandpower has a number of software products, and several of these are readily integrated into the Risk-Spectrum family. integration of Scandpower software into the RiskSpectrum family will be a focus for the future. It could be a matter of data bases, leak frequency calculations as well as consequence modelling. Scand- power also applies advanced CFD, Computational Fluid Dynamics, software tools for fire-, smoke- and explosion simulations. Even if these CFD tools may not be suitable for integration into the RiskSpectrum Software such tools may be of interest also to the nuclear industry. Our goal is that the RiskSpectrum family of products will be at the heart of the toolbox for the new operations.
what is the position of RiskSpectrum in Scandpower’s market? – RiskSpectrum has a good position in the market. I think there is considerable potential for increasing the use of RiskSpectrum, both within the oil and gas industry, and within the transport sector. Relcon and RiskSpectrum maintained high standards in relation to other products and companies in the international safety analysis market. As Relcon Scandpower AB we aim to continue this good practise.
– We will market RiskSpectrum and introduce it to Scandpower’s existing customers, both within the oil and gas sector, and the transport and energy sectors. The fact that we have more users and customers from a greater number of sectors, also means that there is a need for development of software – new users within other areas of use make new demands on the product. We will define and prioritise these areas based on the joint experience of Relcon and Scandpower consultants, and the feedback from our respective customers. For RiskSpectrum to maintain its leading position; continual development is absolutely essential. Software which is not developed - dies! With the renaissance of the nuclear power industry – many countries are in the initial phases of expanding their nuclear power industries – it is important for us to ensure that RiskSpectrum maintains its strong position in the nuclear power market as the best tool for PSA analyses.
what are your thoughts about RiskSpectrum support and training activities?– Training and support activities are two extremely important areas. We meet our customers, and through this we get a good understanding of their work situation and how they use our products. Our customers give us important feedback on the development of our software, and we obtain good insights into the ways in which RiskSpectrum is used; this ensures that it is utilised to its full potential. For us, of course, it gives a means of marketing ourselves, not only the product but also the company, says Bjørn Inge Bakken, President of Scand-power AS in Norway. c
By: Gunilla von Feilitzen MORe
The Scandpower Story The history of Scandpower began on a
summer’s day in 1971, when the Scandpower
company was formally established. The
norwegian Minister of industry at the time,
Finn lied, had urged four of norway’s largest
companies to form an engineering company
in order to assist the growing nuclear and
petroleum industry. norsk Hydro, elkem,
Hafslund and Årdal og Sundals verk all
entered as owners of the new company.
during the 1950 and 1960s, norway had a
good lead as regards research and develop-
ment within nuclear power technology. norway’s
first nuclear power station, jeeP 1 at Kjeller
outside Oslo, was completed in 1951. Only
canada and the four great powers at that time,
the uSA, the Soviet union, France and Great
Britain already had nuclear power stations in
operation. jeeP 1 had a relatively short life, and
in 1959, jeeP 2 was constructed, and it is the
reactor that is at Kjeller today.
during the initial years of Scandpower’s
business, investigation and planning within the
nuclear industry was an important field for the
company. Right from the start, the nuclear
industry had taken safety, quality and environ-
ment very seriously, contributing to an
expanding body of knowledge as regards use
of risk analyses, reliability analyses and
systematisation of failure data, within the
area of risk management. As early as 1974,
Scandpower AS established a subsidiary
company in washington dc, Scandpower inc.
Scandpower AB in Sweden was established
in 1988.
As the nuclear industry lost its popularity in
norway, the focus turned to the growing petro-
leum industry. However, the nuclear sector has
remained an important international market for
the company. The first risk analysis performed
in the norwegian sector in the late 1970s was
the “condeep-analysis”, completed by Scand-
power as a joint effort with several companies
in the norwegian oil and gas industry. in 1984,
Scandpower performed its first HAZOP (HAZard
and Operability) study.
After the tragic train accident on Åsta in
2000, the focus was placed on safety in the
transport sector, and especially in the railway
industry. Scandpower quickly responded to the
challenge, and soon gained expertise and
experience in the area.
Prior to the merger with RelcOn AB the
Scandpower group of companies had 150
specialists at 9 office locations in norway,
Sweden, uSA, china and dubai.
Sources : www.scandpower.com
cOMPAnY newS
Scandpower SoftwareScandpower has developed a number of its
own software programs. The company also
uses a number of special programs develo-
ped by other companies, which are either
commercially available or to which Scand-
power has access via strategic alliances.
“BlowFAM” – a software tool for blow-out
risk analysis; applied during the design
phase of a platform or rig, or for future
well operations on existing units. Blow-out
risk analyses is used for a wide range of
purposes; from providing input to Quantita-
tive Risk Analysis or Safety cases, input to
environmental Risk Analysis or emergency
Preparedness Planning, as well as detailed
analyses of specific well operations.
Sponsors of BlowFAM development have
been: Statoil, BP, elf enterprise, Health &
Safety executive (HSe), Saga Petroleum,
norsk Hydro, Shell, exxonMobil, and SinTeF.
cOSAc – in 1992 Scandpower develo-
ped a concept Safety catalogue for safety
evaluation purposes in the early phases of
an offshore field development. The cata-
logue was devised as a tool to aid in the
identification and evaluation of safety. in
1996, a joint industry project was initiated,
the objective being to develop a Pc-tool
based on the concept Safety catalogue.
The result - cOSAc – which has been further
developed over the past 10 years.
MiRi – a flexible, effective environ-
mental accounting system, MiRi, is suitable
for small, medium sized, and complex
organisations alike.
norway’s largest Sources of energyOil – norway is europe’s second largest
producer of oil. in 1996, the country was
the world’s third largest exporter of crude
oil. Production is exclusively offshore; in
the north Sea and the norwegian Sea.
GAS - norway is europe’s fourth largest
producer of natural gas.
HYdROelecTRic POweR - norway is the
world’s seventh largest generator of
hydroelectric power.
nucleAR POweR - The norwegian
Parliament shelved plans for an expansion
of nuclear power in 1979.
Sources: www.norge.se De offisielle norske nettstedet i Sverige.
Same Skills – different Markets
– Our ways of working does not differ to any great extent. We are both employee-owned companies that work with the same type of assignments within somewhat different areas, says liAne HAeFFleR,
Manager of the Relcon Scandpower AB, Gothenburg office.
How will RelcOn’s old customers notice that the company is now called Relcon Scandpower AB?– Relcon and Scandpower supplement one another and can, together, offer our custo-mers completely different holistic solutions within the risk area. At present, Scandpower has a total of 150 consultants with various areas of experience and competence, servi-ces and methods – from perhaps somewhat differing sectors than Relcon is used to – but services which quite clearly function just as well within the nuclear power industry.
On the other hand, Scandpower’s customers will have access to RiskSpectrum and PSA methodology and consultants with special competence within the nuclear power industry.
As the nuclear power industry is growing strongly in various parts of the world, including Asia, Scandpower’s offices in Beijing (China) and also in Houston (USA) are welcome additions which enable service to former Relcon’s customers to be improved yet further.
Scandpower’s offices in Sweden – uppsala and Göteborg – are well located for customers from the nuclear power stations of Forsmark and Ringhals.
– Within Scandpower, our employees are welcome to make a request for what he/she wants to work with and where. Many of our consultants are moving between our offices in Norway, Sweden, China and the USA. That makes it possible for us to run projects all over the world with project teams who suit the wishes of our customers. However, it makes considerable demands on our ma-nagement, but it also gives our consultants big opportunities of development and our customers a guarantee that they get the best possible competence for the assignment which has been ordered, says Liane Haeffler. c
By: Gunilla von Feilitzen
liane Haeffler, manager of Relcon scandpower aB in goth-enburg
Services that can directly benefit RelcOn's customers are for example: Risk Analysis – Scandpower has
during 30 years of experience deve-
loped know-how, methods and tools
to be used in risk analysis for different
kinds of industry. we provide qualita-
tive and quantitative risk analyses for
complex technical systems, but also
project risk analysis and risk analysis
of organizational changes.
Audits – Based on each
organisation's individual needs,
Scandpower assists in defining
verification and audit requirements.
we also perform gap analysis to
identify the difference between
current capabilities/practices and a
new situation, verification of operation
and maintenance, audits to verify that
there are efficient Health, Safety and
environment management systems in
place to handle actual internal and
external requirements, independent
review and verification of reports
and analyses within all areas of HSe,
quality and reliability and scrutiny of
subcontractors.
Man, Technique and Organisation
(MTO) – Scandpower has extensive
experience in performing working
environment and MTO analyses and
assistance both in design and opera-
tion for all kinds of facilities. Our custo-
mers has increased their attention on
methods and strategies that address
the combination and influence of
human, technical and organisational
factors. The MTO methodology
visualises what can go wrong during a
work process, what kind of deviations
that might occur, and describes the
established barriers. MTO methodo-
logy can be used in all phases of a
project, from design to operation and
is also a powerful method during
incident and accident investigation.
crisis intervention in Offshore
Production (cRiOP) – Scandpower
performs systematic analyses of the
interfaces between control room
operators, process instrumentation
and other personnel at the facility
during accidental situations. cRiOP
analysis can provide effective inter-
faces, a better working environment
in the control room, reduced risk for
errors and increased productivity.
6 R i SkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007
cOMPAnY newS
Twenty Years of Successful Software development– at Relcon scandpower we recognise that Riskspectrum software is one
of the cornerstones in our company’s success and the fact that we are the
leading psa consultants in scandinavia vouch for its continued develop-
ment in the future, says ceO, Jerzy grynblat. it has now passed 20 years
since the first release of ReltRee - the predecessor of Riskspectrum software.
FAcTS1986 – RelcOn´s first software, ReltRee
is released.
it is written for the ms-DOs operating
system and included a Fault tree editor
and a module for calculating minimal
cut sets (Relmcs).
1991– Riskspectrum for DOs is released.
this was a great step forward from
ReltRee and included more advanced
modelling possibilities which at the time
were unique.
1992 – the complete psa tool
Riskspectrum psa for DOs was released.
this software was to become the choice
of the largest companies in the nuclear,
aerospace and defence industries. there
are mainly two things that made it so
popular: its integrated event and Fault
tree analysis, and the module for
producing mcss was the fastest Fault tree
solving algorithm in the world.
1998 – Riskspectrum psa professional
version 1.00 was released.
this is the third generation Fault tree
software produced by RelcOn.
Riskspectrum psa professional is a
Windows 16-bit application.
2002 – RelcOn released the first
version of a new addition to the Riskspec-
trum family, Riskspectrum RiskWatcher.
Riskspectrum RiskWatcher is a risk monitor
that is intended to be used in conjunction
with Riskspectrum psa professional
primarily at nuclear power plants.
2004 – Riskspectrum Fmea version
1.00 is released.
Riskspectrum Fmea facilitates the quality
assurance process by providing a rea-
dily traceable means of documenting
important information for components
(modelling assumptions etc.,) when
performing a risk and availability analysis.
2006/2007 – Riskspectrum psa
32-bit application for the ms .net platform.
this is the fourth generation Fault and
event tree software produced by RelcOn.
Today RiskSpectrum software is licensed for use at 47% of the world’s nuclear power plants. In addition a number of licensees can be found in the transporta-tion, military, space and aviation industry. – I believe that there are four main reasons to the successful start of software development at RELCON: Firstly we choose the PC as the platform for the RELTREE software at a time when it was not certain that this platform was going to be the prevailing one. Secondly, the calculation engine that RELTREE was based on was as fast as or even faster than main frame solution engines used in 1986. Third, the user friendliness and quality of RELTREE code was excellent, and last but not least, at that time the regulatory bodies around the world issued requirements for PSA for nuclear power plant licensees, says CEO, jeRZY GRYnBlAT.
The Man Behind RelTReeIn 1984, almost immediately after RELCON was founded, ulF BeRG was recruited. At the time, Ulf worked with PSA re-search and development at the Department of Nuclear Power
Safety at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. Ulf already had a deep inte-rest in software development and had in his spare time developed a fault tree software.
– Fault trees at this time where solved using main frame computer codes, and required a lot of CPU time. CPU time was expensive and solving fault trees was thereby very costly. There was clearly a business opportunity here for more efficient codes, says Ulf Berg.
Ulf thought that with the right code, PCs could readily be used to solve fault trees just as fast and at a fraction of the cost.
– It would also be much more conve-nient to have the solution engine on desk-top PCs rather than a provider’s mainfra-me, and there was a need for a better user interface and better management of the large and complex PSA models, says Ulf.
Based on his earlier fault tree work, Ulf created RELTREE in less than eight months, and it was completed by the end of 1985. RELTREE included a database to store data in, a graphical fault tree editor and a solution engine.
However RELTREE was not alone in the market place. Companies such as ABB-Atom had also developed fault tree codes, and there were several competitors from the USA and Germany. It was only after tough competition that RELCON succeeded in convincing the Swedish utilities of the merits of using RELTREE for their PSAs.
But Ulf saw RELTREE as only the first step in fulfilling his vision of a complete PSA tool with sophisticated database management and an ability to solve entire PSA models including event trees. To accomplish this, a much more powerful solution engine was needed.
A breakthrough was achieved in 1988 when Ulf developed a new version of the solution engine that was orders of magnitude faster than any other fault tree solution code existing at the time.
At that time I knew it would be possible to develop a large scale PSA software, says Ulf. After intense design and planning, the development of RiskSpectrum started in 1989 and was completed in 1992.
Success soon followed. All but one of the nuclear power utilities in Germany decided to use RiskSpectrum for their PSAs, with Siemens KWU (now AREVA NP) being of great help to RELCON at this time. In France, CEA (now IRSN), EdF and Framatome (now AREVA NP) soon also purchased licenses. Since then, in many countries with nuclear power, RiskSpectrum have become more or less the standard tool for PSA activities. c
ulf Berg
We still have an old pc with ReltRee installed at the Relcon scandpower stockholm office.
R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 7
By: johan Sörman
8 R i SkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007
nATuRAl diSASTeR
How does your organisation differ from organisations such as emergency Architects, Architecture of development, Architecture for Humanity?– In touch with our Internatio-nal goals, we are not an emer-gency group. The organisation is working on a long term basis, and we always work together with international organisa-tions such as the Red Cross etc.–We try to specialise in our own job, architecture, urban design, etc, especially “housing” pro-blems, says eRic SeliS, President of Architectes sans Frontières (architects without Borders) in Belgium, who is also a member of Architecture sans Frontières International Network.
does your organisation have long term goals or do you work case by case on a shorter term basis?– In Belgium, we have some programmes on a short term basis, but with some ideas for the long term. We’re working on an idea of “Architect pro Deo”; this is a system in which government pays architects to give advice to people who don’t have access to “the architect”, in the third world.
what is significant as regards emergency architecture? – We saw that in a lot of disasters the problems could be prevented, everybody knows where earthquakes are pos-sible, where the tsunami hit. Architects and contractors have to be convinced that every area has its own problem and that building has to be adapted, ... but financial matters mean that other things are decided, ... Local and sustainable solutions are a central point of view in our work; we support local industries, building systems, materials, all with an actual attitude to solving problems.
Are there areas where you consider it is not worth rebuilding? And if so – how do you prevent people from settling there?– Of course. This is a matter for government because it’s a question of general planning on the use of space. We can give advice, and if we grow we can perhaps be more important in discussions, concludes Eric Selis. c
FAcTSArchitectes sans Frontières Works with slow social hou-
sing construction in disaster
areas, and has its head of-
fice in Belgium. asF supports
economic, social and cultural
development on a national
level. architectes san Frontières
(asF) operates 90% in Belgium
– giving advice in improving
living conditions for poor
people, refugees – and 10% in
sri lanka and indonesia – re-
construction after the tsunami
in collaboration with the Red
cross – the congo, tanzania
and other places.
asF, Belgium is one of 20 sepa-
rate activities that cooperate
through the international net-
work of aFs international. the
organisations of the various
countries are – asF-españa,
architecture & Développe-
ment, asF-France, asF-portugal,
asF-italia Onlus (Roma),
asF-perú, aWF-australia, asF-uk
(cambridge), asF-Belgium,
aRc•peace (architects Desig-
ners and planners for social
Responsibility) and africa ’70.
more about the special inter-
national goals can be found
under the charter of Hasselt on
the aFs international website.
For more information: www.asf-international.org
eric selis.
“In general, rich people have the opportunity and the possibility of living in areas without natural problems and using the building materials they want, other people have the rest…” cameron sinclair
“More often than not the design industry focuses its attention on building bet-ter structures for the very few, rather than improving the environment for the community as a whole.”
FAcTSArchitecture for Humanity (AFH)this is a new York based-network
which works with providing
solutions to humanitarian crises
throughout the world through
architecture and design. the
organisation is governed by a
board and an advisory bureau,
which are changed every other
year. in each new project, experts
from various areas are collected
together in a special advisory
council. aFH works at present in
long term construction in india,
sri lanka and the gulf coast of
the united states. it is also invol-
ved in supporting a number of
health projects in tanzania and
south africa.
there are also a number of in-
dependent local chapters which
are working throughout the
united states, and a number of
international initiatives including
liberia, mexico and Vietnam.
For more information: www.architectureforhumanity.org
Today, one billion people live in slum areas. if nothing is done, it is estimated that this figure will rise to two billion in 15 years’ time,
which will be a disaster for both developing countries and developed countries alike. Additionally, there is the increased threat
of natural disasters, which make many parts of the world directly unsuitable for housing, and others have to learn to build better,
more secure housing. it is estimated that today, three billion people need better housing. Many organisations feel called to help
with both short term and long term solutions. Architects without Borders work mainly with social housing construction in disaster
areas, while Architecture for Humanity has its focus on long term reconstruction and on responding to systemic issues.
They are Building a Safer world
R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 9
Other organisations that work with, or within, the same areas.
eMeRGencY ARcHiTecTS
The organisation specialises in archi-
tecture in connection with disasters. This
can involve everything from advice to
physically constructing a community,
and it is active on all continents. Their
work in indonesia after the Tsunami
gained the distinction of design for All
Awards from the iFi, the international
Federation of interior Architects.
Headquarters is in Amiens in France,
and it is financed by donations.
For more information:
www.archi-urgent.com
ARcHiTecTuRe OF develOPMenT, A&d
A&d has an involvement in international
solidarity, which is based on the need to
re-emphasise the idea of architectural
intervention with the needs expressed by
social realities. A&d has offices in Paris,
Morocco and india
For more information:
http://www.archidev.org/index.php
cOnGReSS FOR THe new uRBAniSM, cnu
A group of experts who have the intention
of building up the eleven coastal cities
in Mississippi to become good American
cities. This, through planning and
constructing communities that are
more visually attractive, kinder to the
environment, more diversified and safer
as regards hurricanes.
For more information: www.cnu.org
How does Architecture for Humanity differ from other organisations in your line of business?– Our organization is primarily known for being a conduit between the design and huma-nitarian world. We link archi-tects to communities and non-governmental organisations and vice versa. Over the past seven years our focus has been on long term reconstruction and responding to systemic issues. We began by respon-ding to the housing needs of returning refugees in Kosovo, and a few years later we were developing mobile health clinics to combat HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa, says cAMeROn SinclAiR, Executive Director and Co-founder of Architecture for Humanity.
do you cooperate with other organisations or do you distinguish between yours and other organisations missions?– Over the years we’ve had around 8000 designers from 56 countries involved in our efforts. All these groups work on different humanitarian aspects based on socially re-sponsible design, and in some circumstances we even partner together. Over the years we’ve all become good friends and
often recommend on another to other groups - sometimes due to the amount of work we are taking on, other times be-cause of location. (Architects sans Frontières is in Australia and Emergency Architects is in France).
– You should take into consideration the fact that currently one in seven people live in inadequate housing, and by 2025 it will be close to one in three. That’s three bil-lion people looking for better housing solutions – there is certainly room for many more organisations.
does your organisation have long term goals or do you work case by case on a shorter term basis?– There are certainly phases in which we work. More often than not we begin with “small victories” that bring a feeling that the community can come back. Things like transitional schools and basic amenities become anchors in which a community can grow. Jaime Lerner coined the phrase “Ur-ban Acupuncture”, whereby doing a small but effective project within a community can create huge social and eco-nomic change. In his case, the favelas of Brazil. We believe that we can create this, not on-ly for existing settlements but also those recovering from a natural or man-made disaster.–While these small victories are happening, we also begin longer term projects using a collaborative design process
that incorporates a huge num-ber of stakeholders, the most important of which is the com-munity itself. As these projects take time, more often than not we will spend up to five years working with a specific group.
what is significant for emergency architecture? – As noted, we do not focus on “emergency architecture” but more on the long term renewal of communities. This means that not only are we looking to build structures that can withstand future disasters, but the affected communities are heavily involved in the design and reconstruction process.
– Additionally, we develop structures that use appropriate construction technologies and materials - the process is not sustainable if it cannot be replicated and maintained by the community itself. In many instances we also hold skills training workshops to teach new skills and help to initiate new businesses.
Are there areas that you con-sider not worth rebuilding? –We would consider almost all areas. The only exception is in an area that is in a state of conflict - you cannot develop long lasting construction while destruction is still going on. If a community wants to stay in an area and it makes sense eco-nomically and for the future of that community, then we need to find better ways of building rather than imposing reloca-tion,” says Cameron Sinclair. c a house designed by aFH for the tsunami struck areas
in sri lanka.
extended roof base protects against monsoon rain and solar radiation
Hot air inside the house rises and is let out through vents in the roof
improved ventilation with the house longest side facing the predo-minant wind direction
PhotoS: ERiC SEliS
They are Building a Safer worldBy: Gunilla von Feilitzen
FAcTS And FiGuReS every year, 250 million people
suffer as a result of the after-effects
of natural disasters.
Half of the world’s inhabitants
(about three billion) live in
disaster-risk areas.
The number of natural disasters
has increased almost threefold, and
the number of victims has increased
threefold since the 1970s. On the
other hand, the death toll has
noticeably decreased.
One third of the 100 million
people that the world Food
Programme supports are victims
of natural disasters.
Hunger and hunger-related
sicknesses kill as many people each
week as all those killed in the tidal
wave disaster in South east Asia.
The desire to help in connection
with the Asian tsunami disaster
broke many records. it achieved a
place in the Guinness Book of
Records when people in Britain
gave more on-line donations over a
24-hour period than ever before.
Source: www.global.finland.fi
THe cOSTS OF diSASTeRS
c during 2004, weather-related
disasters caused losses of 104
billion dollars, double the amount
of the previous year. Katrina alone
is expected to cost over 100 billion
dollars.
c Since 1980, weather-related
disasters have caused a total of over
600,000 deaths and cost 1.4 billion
dollars. (The number of deaths per
year rose from 22,000 during the
1980s to 33,000 during the 1990s).
Average losses from these disasters
rose to 67 billion dollars per year
during the last decade. (during the
1980s, the equivalent sum was about
26 billion dollars).
c From the start of the 1900s, the
average global temperature has
increased by 0.6 degrees
centigrade. The rate of this increase
after 1976 was three times greater
than the rate of increase during
the century as a whole.
The concentration of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere last year was
16 percent greater than in 1960.
c An estimated 30 million people
were classed as environmental
refugees last year. The undP
suspects that the number will
increase to 50 million in 2010 and
150 million in 2050.
Source: www.worldwatch.org
nATuRAl diSASTeR
10 R i SkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007
FAcTS Other projects which are in progress in Holland. the floating city quarter of leeuwarden with advanced houseboats. where it is estimated that 150 floating homes will be built per year. c the construction of a floating village outside amsterdam’s
schiphol airport. according to the plans, construction of 12 000 amphibious and floating buildings; dwellings, and hospital, schools, businesses, etc. that make up a community, will be built, with construction commencing in four years’ time.
Source: The newspaper, Guardian Unlimited, http://arts.guardian.co.uk
instead of fighting the water, researchers, architects and politicians are attempting to unite in various construction projects to find durable housing solutions in which people can live in harmony with the future climate conditions.
The government has classified 15 areas as future flood zones (a total of 5 000 square kilometres of the country’s total land area of 34 000 square kilometres). At present, these future flood zones are dry areas which within the next 50 years will experience overflow from waterways, canals and the sea, or of water from other areas considered more important to save. Within these areas it is not possible to build in the normal way: even the roads have to be secured against water.
Architects in the Netherlands estimate that in 20 years’ time, they will design 20 000 floating homes per year.
During the next 50 years, at least 40% of the shortage of land suitable for development can be replaced by floating housing structures.
Maasbommel village – Ready for settler. One of many projects is the construction of the Maasbommel village, on the river Maas, some distance south of Amsterdam. The village, which was ready for moving in at the beginning of this year, consists of 36 “amphibious houses” and 14 so-called “floating houses”.
The “amphibious houses”, which are built on the shore just outside the dykes that enclose the village, consist of light-weight wood structures built on a base of hollow concrete blocks which function as
pontoons. These are secured in the ground at the water’s edge. The floating concrete blocks are, as with the actual hou-sing structures, connected to steel mooring posts, two for each house. These steel moo-ring posts are secured in the ground, and connected to the houses with so-called sli-ding rings, which enable the houses to float freely up and down. When the rivers floods, the buildings can rise as much as 5.5 metres. A special cushioning system prevents a fee-ling of discomfort and evens out the effect of waves on the movement of the house. Electrical connections, gas, water and se-wage drainage go in PVC flexible pipes inside the vertical mooring posts, and lead up to the shore and the municipal network.
The 14 “floating houses” are a type of advanced houseboat, constructed in the same way as the homes described above, but without being secured to the ground with concrete and steel mooring posts. The boat and berth, essential at high water, are included as standard.
dr cris Zevenbergen, Environment Director of the construction company, Dura Vermeer, and driving force behind the Maas-bommel project, believes the solution to future flooded zones is to build amphibious houses, new towns and extensions of exis-ting cities on flood plains and river banks.
what do you think are the most acute pro-blems involved in housing on water in the netherlands today?– For the common Dutchmen it is almost
according to the united nations’ panel on climate
change, rainfall in parts of the netherlands will
increase by up to 25% during this century, and
sea level is expected to rise by over one metre.
about a quarter of the netherlands already lies
below sea level, and three-quarters of the
population live in these areas.
The dutch Makes Peace with Mother nature
FAcTS Other projects which are in progress in Holland. the floating city quarter of leeuwarden with advanced houseboats. where it is estimated that 150 floating homes will be built per year. c the construction of a floating village outside amsterdam’s
schiphol airport. according to the plans, construction of 12 000 amphibious and floating buildings; dwellings, and hospital, schools, businesses, etc. that make up a community, will be built, with construction commencing in four years’ time.
Source: The newspaper, Guardian Unlimited, http://arts.guardian.co.uk
One of many projects are maasbommel Village, a group of 36 amphibious houses on the river maas, south of amsterdam.
impossible to get a site to build a house in water. Our environmental planning is very strict and will not permit habitation in areas outside the normal suburbs. So buying a house in water is very difficult.
– Thereby the social status of living on water is very low. In Holland these houses are called “woonboten” (a type of ship to live on), and in people’s minds these are not real houses.
Technically there are no problems. Everything is possible. There are beautiful designs and plans. Gradually, we are seeing that bigger spatial developments incorporate more and more water in the outlines and houses that are situated in this water.
what are the toughest obstacles to overcome in the future?– Keeping the Netherlands dry in the face of changing climate, rising sea level and decline of our land surface, jurisdiction (allowing people to live in rural surroundings), social acceptance of living on water, influencing political choices for living on the water.
To what extent do you think it is possible to build disaster-safe houses? what magni-tude of disaster do you design houses for?– It is not possible to build safely for the grea-test disasters. As with earthquakes, building to withstand a certain level of disaster is pos-sible. Above that everything will be destroyed. Dura Vermeer is busy with the development of flood-proof and wet-proof houses. This means houses that can withstand a flood situation (with normal water speed and no big drifting
objects). The difference between the two de-signs is that the flood-proof houses are capable of keeping out the flood stream. The wet-proof houses let the water come in and are designed to accept the water for a short period of time.
How will people live in the netherlands in 50 years from now? – We build houses with a lifecycle of at least 50 years. So we are already talking about the next generation of housing.
– I think it will be several generations before we see structural changes in occupation in the Netherlands. The average age of people in the Netherlands is increasing, so smaller communities will arise. Maybe some of them will be water-related.
do you think the requirements in the way we design and plan our communities for the future will be different from those of today?– In the Netherlands, our environmental planning is slowly changing. More and more commercial organisations (building companies, etc) are involved in environmental planning and so is Dura Vermeer. As environ-mental planning becomes more of an issue that does not just concern government, our planning system has to change to allow more participants in planning activities. I think that the requirements regarding the way we design and plan our communities for the future will be different from those of today,” says Dr Cris Zevenbergen, Environment Director of the construction company, Dura Vermeer. c
By: Gunilla von Feilitzen
Photo: dR CRiS zEvEnBERGEn www.duravermeer.nl
FAcTS And FiGuReS veGeTATiOn SAve liveS
The sea surface has risen by
15 cm during the 1900s. if all the
ice in Antarctica and Greenland
were to vanish completely, the sea
level would rise by 72 metres.
Two out of every five people in
the world live less than 100 kilo-
metres from a coast. Over half of
the world’s coastline is threatened
by future developments. Only a
small rise in sea levels would, for
example, wash Holland away if
combined with a powerful hur-
ricane directed towards the sea
coast. environmentalists advocate
a defence line: plantations of
mangrove swamps, to function
as breakwaters. earlier warning
systems and more vegetation in
the proximity of the coast could,
perhaps, have saved many of the
1,800 people who drowned or who
were hit by objects in the water at
Khao lak in Thailand.
As accounts from the affected
countries became known, a
pattern emerged: in communities
that lay behind a belt of mang-
roves, as in parts of the coast of
india or behind an intact coral
reef as in the Maldives; damage
and deaths were less than in
places which were directly hit by
the waves. during the last decade,
prawn farms, hotel complexes and
industry have been constructed on
large areas that were previously
covered by mangrove.
Source: www.svd.se , www.nationalgeographic.com
FlOOded iSlAndS
Many islands and major cities
may be flooded before 2100 on
account of climate change
according to an analysis publis-
hed in the journal, Science.
Over 100 million people risk being
affected by a rise in sea level of
about one metre.
The effects of rising sea levels are
already a problem. islands such as
Tonga, Tuvalu, the Solomon islands
and the Maldives are affected,
despite the fact that the sea level
has only risen by not more than
perhaps 10 centimetres. There is
practically no hope of saving smal-
ler islands, such as the Maldives.
“This is an enormously important
matter,” says Gary Griggs, director
of the institute of Marine Sciences
at the university of california.
Source: www.msi.ucsb.edu
www.sciencemag.org
R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 11
How is it generated and can i use it without limitations? these are questions we often receive at [email protected].
HOw-TO
what is the Risk increase Factor?
newS uPdATe
The Risk increase factor (RIF, also known as Risk Achievement Worth, RAW) is a measure that can give you information about how important a component or
a system is based on a fault tree/event tree model that you use for safety or reliability calculations.
In RiskSpectrum PSA Professional the importance measure, Risk Increase Factor (RIF also known as Risk Ac-hievement Worth, RAW) is calculated in the following way.QTOP is the top event probability (unavailability or frequen-cy, depending on the type of calculation in the MCS-analysis specification). This can be the top event probability for a gate in a fault tree, a sequence, or a consequence in an event tree. When calculating RIF for a basic event, its probability is set to 1.0 and the MCS list, generated when calculating QTOP, is recalculated (using Min Cut Upper Bound, MCUB). This new top event probability QTOP(Q=1), is used for calcula-ting the risk increase factor using the following formula:
RIFs for CCF-Groups, Parame-ters, Event Groups, Attributes, Components and Systems are calculated by setting Q=1 for
all basic events with a relationship to the CCF-Groups, Para-meters, Event Groups, Attributes, Components and Systems.
Note: RiskSpectrum PSA Professional does not minimise the MCS list when calculating QTOP(Q=1) as this would take too long.
How can i use the result? In most cases, RIF for basic events is conservative due to all the non-minimal cut sets that are included in the calculation of QTOP(Q=1).
In a truncated MCS list it is, however not certain that the RIF are always conservative. A system that has a very low failure probability may be represented in only a few MCS (in the saved MCS list) due to the cut-off applied. In this case the RIF for a component (basic event) in that system may be much lower than it would in the complete MCS list (if such a list could be generated within acceptable timescales).
Using RiskSpectrum, (or any other code that does not minimise when calculating RIF) you can only be 100% sure that a basic event RIF is correct when running the im-portance calculations in RiskSpectrum PSA Professional when a MCS list is the complete representation of the fault tree logic and the MCS list will stay minimal if you remove the basic event from it.
So what can we do when all we have are truncated MCS? Two methods have been identified:1. RIF for a System is equal to RIF for the Basic Event, in that system, with the highest RIF.2. Regenerate MCS List with the System unavailable and hand-calculate RIF. c
dOeS THiS SOund cOMPlicATed? don´t worry. On our website www.riskspectrum.com you can find a more elaborate article with examples.
well Attended RiskSpectrum user Meetingsthe third international Risk-
spectrum user meeting was,
as previous years, organised
by corporate Risk and asso-
ciates in the recently restored
theatre of the old town Hall
building in leatherhead south
of london. the meeting was
held in november 2006 and
attracted some 20 partici-
pants from 9 countries.
in February 2007, the annual
Riskspectrum users meeting
for german licensees was
held at aReVa, Framatome
anp offices in erlangen and
was as always, well attended.
the user meetings always
include many interesting
topics and lively discussions.
On the support pages at
www.riskspectrum.com
you can read more about the
issues discussed.
Relcon scandpower
organises a 5 days
Riskspectrum training
course twice a year
in stockholm,
sweden. 2007 they
are scheduled
28 may – 1 June and
3 – 7 December.
there are three basic
packages included
in our courses:
One-day
preparatory course
in methods for safety,
reliability and
availability analysis.
Riskspectrum Ft
professional training.
Riskspectrum psa
professional training.
Riskspectrum psa
level 2 training.
Fully Booked courses 2006
sweden’s
prime
minister,
Fredrik
Reinfeldt,
is worried
about the effects of global
Warming on our climate.
– i do not rule out the pos-
sibility that new nuclear
units will be built in swe-
den in the future, he says in
an interview in the swedish
newspaper sydsvenskan.
– the existence of nuclear
power plants in sweden
has for many years been
considered as being
limited. as long as focus
is on phasing out the use
of oil and coal, nuclear
will play a role in sweden,
says Fredrik Reinfeldt to
sydsvenskan.
www.sydsvenskan.se
Prime Minister Opens the door for new nuclear in Sweden
psa engineers from 8 countries
attended the Riskspectrum training
courses in stockholm in June and
December last year. RelcOn
engineers training services were also
required in other parts of the world
for fire and flooding analysis and
Riskspectrum RiskWatcher training.
anna Häggström and per Hellström
travelled to south africa in the be-
ginning of December 2006 to hold
the 5 days training course for the
pebble Bed modular Reactor project
in centurion.
anders enerholm held a two days
Riskspectrum fire and flooding
training session for the shanghai
nuclear engineering Research and
Design institute in the p. R. of china.
in november, Johan sörman together
with ivan Vrbanic and ivica Bašic,
apos, croatia, held a 3-days
Riskspectrum RiskWatcher training
course for the slovenia nuclear safety
administration in ljubljana, slovenia.
For more information:
www.riskspectrum.com
a Happy crowd at the Riskspectrum training course in centurion, south africa: From left to right: adelein de clercq (pBmR), sandiswe sotashe (eskOm), shavani ghoorun (eskOm), linda Jacobs (eskOm), louise cawood (pBmR), sajedah mahommed (pBmR), terma kussman (nnR), louis eloff (pBmR), Farisha panday (pBmR), lesego aphane (pBmR), kristen ireland (eskOm).
QTOP (Qi = 1)
QTOPI Ii =
By: johan Sörman
R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 13
eneRGY & POliTicS
ARGenTinA
Strong growth has given rise to a
new energy policy for the country.
with oil production stagnating, Ar-
gentina is dusting off its old nuclear
power programme. economists
warn that with continued GnP
growth of about 9 percent, there
will be an energy shortage as soon
as next year. The government will
primarily carry out three measures:
Finish construction of the country’s
third reactor, Atucha ii, construct a
fourth reactor of 1000 megawatts
and prolong the life the embalse
reactor by 25 years.
At present, Argentina has two
reactors operating; Atucha i in
Zárate and embalse in córdoba.
Together, they generate 935
megawatts. This covers 7 percent
of the country’s power require-
ments, according to the Swedish
newspaper, dagens industri.
RuSSiA
According to the net newspaper,
“The voice of Russia”, in 2007 the
world’s largest floating nuclear
power station will be constructed
in Russia. The power station will be
built at the Severodvinsk shipyard
on the white Sea, which has up
to now manufactured nuclear
submarines, and will be operational
in 2010. construction costs are
estimated at 300 million dollars. At
present, floating power stations are
in demand in 11 Russian regions,
from Murmansk in the northernmost
part of the Kola Peninsular across
to the Far east. construction of
floating power stations is included
in a federal programme directed at
increasing the proportion of nuclear
power in the country’s energy
provision to 25 percent.
in total, Russia plans to build
between 42 and 58 reactors by 2030.
G8 SuPPORTS nucleAR POweR
Fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas
and coal “will continue to be the
basis of the world’s energy produc-
tion” during the next few decades,
according to the ministers, but they
emphasise that a broad investment
must be made so that energy needs
are satisfied, even if some supply
sectors vanish, according Swedish
news agency TT.
“For those countries that so wish,
large-scale development of secure,
safe nuclear energy is decisive for
long-term environmentally sustaina-
ble diversification of energy supp-
lies, according to a communiqué”
after the G8’s energy meeting of mi-
nisters in Moscow earlier this year.
indiA
France is to help india develop
nuclear power as an energy source
in exchange for india purchasing 43
French Airbus aircraft. And the uSA
has signed an agreement with india
on cooperation regarding Ameri-
can nuclear power technology (this
is restricted to civil nuclear power).
in a comment about the agreement
with the uSA, iAeA director General,
Mohamed el Baradei, says, “ This
agreement is an important step
towards satisfying india’s growing
need for energy, including nuclear
technology and fuel, as an engine
for development. it would also bring
india closer as an important partner
in the non-proliferation regime.” At
present, india has 16 nuclear power
stations in operation, and six under
construction.
BlAiR inveSTS in new
nucleAR POweR PlAnTS
The Blair government wants to
construct new reactors in order to
solve energy shortages and climate
goals. industry is stepping up the
pressure, as the price of industrial
gas has doubled recently. Some
energy-intensive companies were
even forced to close temporarily
during the winter in early 2006.
new reactors would be a way of
achieving the ambition of reducing
greenhouse gases from fossil fuels,
and compensating for the shortage
of domestically generated energy
due to declining oil and gas supp-
lies from the north Sea. The country
gets 40 percent of its electricity
from north Sea gas, and this propor-
tion is expected to increase at the
same time as nuclear reactors and
coal-fired power plants are closed
down on account of age and for
environmental reasons.
Blair thinks that there is now a
“frantic debate” ongoing throug-
hout the world regarding energy
and climate questions, and there-
fore wants a debate on the issue.
Prime Minister Tony Blair plans to
establish a new British energy
policy in the middle of this year.
AT PReSenT, GReAT BRiTAin HAS
23 ReAcTORS in OPeRATiOn And
nO new cOnSTRucTiOn HAS
cOMMenced Since 1988.
All reactors, with one exception, are
to be shut down within 18 years.
cOunTRieS dePendenT
uPOn nucleAR POweR
According to iAeA, nuclear power
produces 16 percent of the total
consumption of electricity in the
world today.
The highest proportion is in France,
which has 78 percent.
As regards the eu countries, the
figure is about 31 percent.
For the uSA, dependency is about
20 percent.
in 2006 the following new nuclear power
stations were put into operation
according to iAeA.
• Tianwan 1 1000 Mw(e),
PwR-wweR, china ready on 12 May.
• Shika 2 1304 Mw(e), BwR,
japan operational on 15 March.
• Tarapur 3 490 Mw(e), PHwR,
india on 21 May.
new eMPlOYeeSFrom 2 January
2007, lisa
Bengtsson is
working at the
Relcon scand-
power office in
sundbyberg.
she will mainly work on probabilistic
safety assessment, with a special
focus on nuclear safety.
lisa has a master’s degree in energy
systems engineering from uppsala
university, where along with other
topics she studied nuclear power
techniques and Risk analysis. lisa
did her final thesis in santiago, chile,
where she compared environmental
consequences from the current muni-
cipal solid waste treatment with those
from a system which included incine-
ration of waste with energy recovery.
lisa previously worked for the swedish
energy agency in the Department
for system analysis with the electricity
certificate system; which is a sup-
port system for electricity production
from renewable energy sources. Her
duties included being in charge of a
publication for market statistics and
information regarding electricity
certificates.
Relcon
scandpower´s
psa team recei-
ved a welcome
addition when
Vidar Hedtjärn
swaling joined
our sundbyberg
office on the 1st september 2006.
Vidar has a master of science degree
from uppsala university, where he
specialised in systems in techno-
logy and society. Besides traditional
studies in systems analysis and
automatic control, his training was
permeated by a holistic perspective
and cross-disciplinary approach.
Vidar is convinced that for successful
identification and control of risks in
technical systems, you need to take
a step back and recognise how
technology and society are
intimately interconnected.
in his diploma thesis, Vidar dealt with
statistical methods for handling failu-
re data in the nuclear power industry.
at our sundbyberg office, he will be
engaged in the current psa activities
as well as in method development
related to his earlier achievements.
prior to his studies at uppsala univer-
sity, Vidar pursued comprehensive
studies in psychology and theoretical
philosophy at the university of stockholm.
lisa Bengtsson
vidar Hedtjärn Swaling
14 R i SkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007
However, india with 16% of the world’s population currently generates only around 2% of the global electricity, so to achieve a modestly high level of economic growth and her other development goals; India’s domestic generation capacity will need to increase at least ten fold, to about 900 GWe.
electricity Generation – national ScenarioCurrently India’s electricity is generated using mostly coal (see figure 1), of which it has about 5% of the world’s reserves. Even with full utilization, the conventional resources in India are far from being adequate to achieve any ambitious target in terms of power generation. For a large and deve-loping country like India, bulk imports of fuel or energy are neither affordable nor strategically prudent.
With the depleting coal and oil resour-ces and the limited hydro power, and with growing global concerns of green house gases generated by fossil fuel fired stations, India has no option but to use nuclear and other non- conventional re-sources for meeting its future power requirements.
While other, non-conventional, resources are suitable for small-decentralised applications, expert studies indicated that any substantial and sustainable rise in the standard of living in the region will only be possible on the basis of nuclear power. In terms of Long Range Marginal Cost (LRMC) advantages, nuclear power is a genuine economic option for power supply at locations far removed from coal reserves, particularly if hydro sources are not available in those regions.
nuclear Power Programme in indiaWhile economics is an important consideration for harnessing any energy source, the remark made by Dr. Homi J Bhabha (Father of Indian Nuclear Power Program) four decades ago is worth recalling. He said ‘No Power is costlier than no power’ meaning lack of power sources could impose a more severe economic penalty than the initial cost of development.
The relevance of nuclear power in meeting the short and
long-term energy needs of India was recognized right at the beginning of atomic energy program by Dr. Bhabha and his colleagues. Taking cognizance of India’s nuclear resources profile, Dr. Bhabha formulated a three-stage nuclear power program. This strategy unique to India was planned for judicious utilization of our limited uranium ore (78,000 tonnes - about 0.8% of world’s reserves) and our vast thorium resources (over 360,000 tonnes – about 32% of the worlds reserves). The emphasis of the program has been on self- reliance and thorium utilization as a long-term objective; the program essentially links the fuel cycles of each stage in a manner that multiplies the potential of nuclear fuel several-hundred fold.
The first stage of the program involving use of indigenous uranium in PHWRs efficiently produces not only energy but also fissile plutonium (U-238 in natural uranium undergoes nuclear transmutation to produce Pu-239).
The second stage of the program envisages use of Pu-239 obtained from the first stage reactor operation (by spent fuel reprocessing extraction) as the fuel in Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) with U-238 and Th-232 as blankets. Fresh Pu-239 and U-233, which are fissile, are produced in this process.
In the third stage, U-233 with Th-232 as a blanket in the Breeder Reactors, would behave as the mainstay of the final thorium utilization of the Indian Nuclear Program.
The first stage of Indian Nuclear Power Program is functional and India has now progressively moved on to the second stage with the start of construction of the FBR.
India’s staged nuclear power program is an important element in allowing nuclear power to meet the role envisaged
FeATuRe
Electricity Generation - National Scenario
Hydro26%
Thermal66%
Nuclear3%
Renewable5%
Figure 1. the major contribution to india’s power production pro-gram comes from coal based thermal power stations and Hydro electric power generation..
indian Power Sector – nuclear Power for Sustainable developmentenergy, particularly electricity, plays an important role in accelerating the economic growth of a country. india, the largest democracy in the world with an estimated population of about 1.095 billion, is on a road to rapid growth. mrs Devi kompella, with long experience of working in the nuclear industry in india, has kindly agreed to explain the current status and the plans for nuclear power in india.
Electrical Generation - Forecast Fuel Mix
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2002 2022 2032 2042 2052
Year
TW
h
Nuclear
Renewable
Hydro
Hydrocarbon
Coal
Figure 2. Forecasted growth in electrical generation in india 2002 - 2052.
electricity Generation – Forecast Fuel Mix
electricity Generation – national Scenario
R iSkSPECtRumAGAzinE APR il 2007 15
Mrs devi Kompella is a Risk
assessment specialist working for
her own consultancy company,
‘ReltecH consulting private
limited’. Besides catering to the
needs of clients in india, ReltecH
consulting is currently providing
consultancy services in the areas
of Regulatory Review of psa,
psa applications, Risk informed
Decision making and psa soft-
ware Feature enhancement to
international organisations such
as the swiss Regulatory authority
(Hsk), swiss utilities and RelcOn,
sweden.
prior to setting up ReltecH
consulting in september 2005,
mrs. kompella worked for the
nuclear power corporation of
india limited (npcil) owners of
india’s npps. Whilst at npcil she
spent 2 years in npp operations,
and 14 years hands-on working
experience in psa. an advanced
user of Riskspectrum, Devi was
the recipient of the Outstanding
contribution award from npcil
for her contribution to indian
pHWR psa.
education: Bachelor’s Degree
in electrical and instrumentation
engineering from Osmania
university, Hyderabad, india
and advanced Diploma in
german language from
central institute of english
and Foreign languages,
Hyderabad, india.
looking forward to:
undertaking national and
international consultancy
assignments/projects of diverse
nature in the area of Risk
assessment and availability
analysis for nuclear and other
industries in the energy sector.
email: [email protected]
website:
www.reltechconsulting.co.in
indian Power Sector – nuclear Power for Sustainable developmentin the growth in electrical generation fore-casted by expert groups at the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) (see Figure 2). The DAE forecast calls for an increase of electricity generation from nuclear power plants from 3% - 20% of the total electrical generation in the country.
The study takes cognizance of the plans of various agencies of the Government of India and brings out several important conclusions with regard to fuel resource position and the role that nuclear energy has to play in India during the next five decades.
Status of nuclear Power Plants in indiaThe Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) has accumulated about
250 reactor-years of operational experience free of any serious incident involving release of radioactivity to the environment. Indian nuclear power plants have progressively attained excellent operation performance indicating that nuclear power technology in India has reached a state of maturity. This maturity has not led to complacence and the DAE continues to take steps to further its development which are aimed at further improving the safety and availability of ope-rating stations, reducing the gestation period of plants under construction by using inno-vative management techniques, optimising cost and developing new reactor systems.
Safety of nPPs and Probabilistic Safety AssessmentSafety is given paramount importance in the design, construction and operation of
Indian Nuclear Power Stations. To ensure safety a defence-in-depth philosophy is followed, which leads to multiple barriers, diversity, redundancy, independence and fail safe design of the safety related systems. In addition safety is further enhanced by the application of sound design principles, use of international standards and codes, stringent quality assurance, approved operating procedures, in-service inspection and maintenance of safety systems, etc.
To complement the deterministic safety analyses, a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is carried out whose aim is to compute the quantitative risk estimate for each NPP and to arrive at efficient safety management solutions.
NPCIL has produced Level-1 Probabi-listic Safety Assessments (with internal events at power) for all of India’s operating reac-tors. A compre-hensive reference Level-2 PSA was also performed by NPCIL in the recent past. The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC)
currently is working on research reactor and Advanced Heavy Water Reactor PSAs. All PSAs are submitted to the regulatory authority (AERB) for review. The PSA teams of NPCIL, BARC and AERB work in co-ordination to achieve a high quality standard in both the performance and review of the Indian NPP PSAs. c
By: janaki devi Kompella
Note: The above article is compiled using published matter and articles from the following websites:
www.powermin.nic.in
www.dae.gov.in
www.npcil.nic.in
www.aerb.gov.in
www.barc.ernet.in
You can read a more detailed version of this article on: www.riskspectrum.com
Details of Reactor units total capacity (mWe)
Reactors in Operation: 2 BWRs (2x160) mWe,
14 pHWRs (1x100, 1x200, 10x220 & 2x540) mWe
3900
Reactors under construction: 4 pHWRs (4x220) mwe
1 FBR (1x 500) mwe 2VVeRs (2x1000) mWe
3380
new Starts Planned: lWRs (4x1000) mWe pHWRs (4x700) mWe
6800
Total 14080
Projected nuclear Power capacity up to 11th Plan (March-2012)
You are welcome to send us material to publish in RiskSpectrum Magazine. Please send it to [email protected]
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RiskSpectrum Magazine ispublished by RELCON AB
MAY 2006
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RelcOn and Scandpower join forces Read all about it on pages 4-6