life needs balance. so do your investments

32
Life needs balance. So do your investments HSBC Equity Hybrid Fund | NFO open from: 28 Sep - 12 Oct 2018

Upload: others

Post on 03-Nov-2021

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Life needs balance. So do your investments

Life needs balance. So do your investments

HSBC Equity Hybrid Fund | NFO open from: 28 Sep - 12 Oct 2018

Page 2: Life needs balance. So do your investments

1

Where are we today?Above average equity valuations + Attractive bond yields + Political uncertainty

Current equity valuations and bond yields call for a balanced approach

10

0

12

29

6

24

5

-2

11

2

8 9

19

5

-6

-12

-1

0

-7

1

-3 -3

7 7

-8

1514

5

10

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

7.8%

55.5

66.5

77.5

88.5

99.510

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct-

17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

10 year G-Sec yield

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL, August 2018

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Price to Earnings - Nifty Nifty PAT Growth %

Page 3: Life needs balance. So do your investments

2

Equity has proven to be one of the best asset classes for long-term wealth creation.

– S&P BSE Sensex has returned 14% annualised returns, on an average, for a 20-year holding period on a daily rolling basis

Equity offers long-term wealth creation opportunity

Source: BSE

Annualised returns of S&P BSE Sensex on a daily rolling basis since July 1979, Data as on July 2018

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Equity performance over a long term

Equity delivered an average of 14% returns over a long-term period

17%16% 16%

15%14%

15% 16%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

3-Years 5-Years 10-Years 15-Years 20-Years 25-Years 30-Years

Annualis

ed r

etu

rns %

Average rolling returns

----------------------------------------------------------------------------Holding Period---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Page 4: Life needs balance. So do your investments

3

Equity provides a wealth-creation opportunity over the long term, but can erode wealth in the short term owing to

volatility. Therefore, it is prudent to go long.

Volatility exists in the short run

Source: BSE

Annualised returns of S&P BSE Sensex for the above holding periods are on a daily rolling basis between June 2003 to July 2018

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Long-term investing increases the likelihood of better performance because of the power of compounding and

shields the portfolio against short-term market fluctuations.

Longer investment horizon helps reduce volatility

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jul-

03

Jul-

04

Jul-

05

Jul-

06

Jul-

07

Jul-

08

Jul-

09

Jul-

10

Jul-

11

Jul-

12

Jul-

13

Jul-

14

Jul-

15

Jul-

16

Jul-

17

Jul-

18

An

nu

alis

ed

re

turn

s %

1-years rolling

5-years rolling

10-years rolling

Page 5: Life needs balance. So do your investments

4

Short term volatility can be reduced too

Fixed Income complements equity and provides strength to the portfolio

Extreme volatility of

equity can reflect

temporary erosion of

investment

Fixed Income asset

class provides stability

even in the short term

Exposure to both asset

classes reduces the

short term volatility and

provides the right

balance to the portfolio

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 6: Life needs balance. So do your investments

5

Every season the winner changes hands in the financial markets.

• Asset classes (equity and debt) perform differently under different market situations.

• Dependency on a single asset class could be risky and instead, diversification helps minimise potential losses.

• Allocation to different asset classes is dependent on an investor’s investment objective and risk profile.

• As evident in the chart above, equity (S&P BSE Sensex) nosedived 52% while debt (Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index) rose 9% in

2008, while in 2017, the S&P BSE Sensex surged 28% while the composite bond fund index rose just 5%.

Different seasons have different winners

Debt and equity are represented by the Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index and S&P BSE Sensex respectively,

Source: CRISIL Research, BSE, * data till 31 July 2018, Equity – Debt Correlation is calculated using 10 years daily returns data for Sensex TRI and Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Equity

Equity Equity Equity Equity

Equity

Equity Debt Debt DebtEquity Equity Equity Equity EquityDebt

Diversification helps minimise losses and get the best of both asset classes

8%

-0.3%

5% 4% 7% 9% 4% 5% 7% 9% 4%14% 9% 13%

5% 1%

73%

13%

42% 47% 47%

-52%

81%

17%

-25%

26%

9%

30%

-5%

2%

28%

10%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8*

RE

TU

RN

S %

Debt Equity

Equity - Debt

Correlation = 0.13

Page 7: Life needs balance. So do your investments

6

E 20% – D 80%

E 30% – D 70%

E 35% – D 65%

E 50% – D 50%

E 65% – D 35%

E 70% – D 30%

E 80% – D 20%

Debt

Equity

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Retu

rns

Risk

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Above list of asset allocation patterns is not exhaustive and only for illustration purpose

E –(Equity) S&P BSE 200 TRI and D (Debt) CRISIL Composite bond fund index, Equity – S&P BSE Sensex, Debt – Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index,

Risk – return chart for 15 years with daily rolling returns data till the period ended 31 July 2018 , Risk – Standard deviation

Optimal asset allocation for wealth generation

Right asset allocation is the key to an ideal portfolio

Potential additional risk

to generate returns

Page 8: Life needs balance. So do your investments

7

• With appropriate asset allocation between equity and debt, benefits of diversification can be seen, particularly in the

market downtrend.

• The analysis below shows that during bear phases, Portfolio B (70% equity and 30% debt) has performed better as

compared with Portfolio A (100% equity).

Portfolio Allocation A represented by S&P BSE Sensex TRI Index

Portoflio Allocation B represented by S&P BSE 200 TRI Index (70% weightage) and CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index (30% weightage)

Annualised returns on point to point basis is considered

Source: CRISIL Research, For illustration purpose only

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

PeriodPortfolio A returns

(equity 100%)

Portfolio B returns (equity 70% and debt 30%)

Sub-prime crisis (Jan 2008-Mar 2009) -44% -35%

Sharp bounce back post sub-prime crisis (Apr 2009-Dec 2010) 54% 38%

European crisis (Jan 2011-June 2013) -1% 1%

Post European crisis (Jul 2013-Feb 2015) 29% 25%

Chinese slowdown (Mar 2015-Feb 2016) -21% -12%

Global liquidity and domestic reforms (Mar 2016-Dec 2017) 24% 22%

Optimal asset allocation best suited for long-term investors

Right allocation across asset classes helps achieve better risk-adjusted returns

Page 9: Life needs balance. So do your investments

Presenting,

HSBC Equity Hybrid Fund (HEHF)(Aggressive Hybrid fund – An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments)

NFO Period

28 September - 12 October 2018

Page 10: Life needs balance. So do your investments

9

An open ended aggressive hybrid scheme

An asset allocation product with a mix of equity & debt

Benefit from growth potential of equities

Benefit from lower or reduced risk/volatility due to debt exposure

A solution for long term wealth creationHSBC Equity Hybrid Fund

Asset allocation of aggressive hybrid funds as per SEBI’s new category reclassification.

For representation purpose only, * The provision for equity investments is between 65% to 80% and debt between 20% to 35%. The investment list above is not exhaustive and for illustration purpose only

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Get upside potential of equities with relatively lower risk

70%

30%

Investment in equity

and equity-related

instruments -

between 65% and

80% of total assets *

Investment in

debt instruments -

between 20% and

35% of total assets *

Page 11: Life needs balance. So do your investments

10

Fund placement in potential risk-reward matrixStriking the right balance in between

Source – HSBC MF, Note - Above list of categories in the chart is an indicative list and is not exhaustive #Typical minimum investment horizon for investors, *There were 2 instances on July 16, 2013 and July 24, 2013 when the liquid funds gave negative one-day return due to tightening of liquidity by RBI1 An open ended debt scheme investing in instruments with Macaulay duration between 4 to 7 years 2 An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity3 An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments with Macaulay duration between 1 year and 3 years

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

RE

TU

RN

Liquid Funds #

Short Duration Funds 3

Gilt Funds 2

RISK

Long Duration Funds 1

HSBC Equity Hybrid Fund

Dynamic Bond Funds

Large Cap Funds

Mid and Small Cap Funds

Thematic Funds

HSBC Equity Hybrid fund is placed at a mid level of risk-return ratio

Page 12: Life needs balance. So do your investments

11

HEHF’s investment approachAsset allocation strategy with right balance between equity & debt

Data as of 31 July 2018

Optimal asset allocation – exposure to two different asset classes to strike

the right balance between Growth & Stability

Flexi-Equity strategy - sector agnostic style of investments with a flexi-cap

strategy to build a diversified portfolio using PBROE valuation framework

Optimal-Duration strategy - to follow an optimal duration debt strategy and

invest in high quality fixed income instruments which offer reasonable yields

Flexible in approach, higher on growth, lower on risks

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 13: Life needs balance. So do your investments

12

Why flexi-cap equity strategy?Capitalising on the opportunities across the market spectrum

Performance

Flexi cap strategy can invest across market spectrum depending on prevailing opportunities which can

provide performance consistency

Volatility

Ability to maintain portfolio volatility at reasonable level due to a balance between large, mid and small cap

stocks

Under researched

Mid & small caps may be subject to mis-appraisals and mis-pricing as they are under researched and thus

can create an alpha generation opportunity for the fund manager

Earnings

It offers a combination of stable as well as accelerated earnings with a potential to support stock valuations in

up as well as down trend

Growth

While large cap companies are well positioned to achieve economies of scale, mid & small cap companies

offer higher growth push

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 14: Life needs balance. So do your investments

13Source - MFI ICRA, HSBC Global Asset Management , data as of 31 Dec 17

Different market-caps perform in different investment scenarios

Bringing performance consistencyFlexi-cap strategy can outperform in different time periods

– Large cap stocks were the leaders in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011 & 2013

– Midcap stocks shone in 2012, 2015 & 2016

– Small cap stocks were the best performers in the year 2005, 2007, 2009, 2014 & 2017

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0 Large Cap

Mid Cap

Small Cap

2005 2007 20102011

2013 2015 20172006

2008

2009 2012 2014 2016

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 15: Life needs balance. So do your investments

14

How do we construct a portfolio?Placement of stocks through proprietary PBRoE process makes it more efficient

Inflated Buy Growth Buy

Value Buy Best Buy

RoE of stocks

PB

of

sto

cks

Underweight / Overweight position of market cap segments

For illustrative purposes only

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 16: Life needs balance. So do your investments

15

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Potential opportunities in equityFlexi cap strategy

Large cap

There is a concentrated performance on a YTD basis in Large Cap indices and there could be a case for

wider participation going forward.

Mid & Small cap

This segment continues to be more bottom up and a sharp correction in mid & small cap names this year is

throwing up some investment opportunities that are now available at more reasonable valuations.

Investment style

Flexi strategy offers potential quality mix of large, mid and small cap stocks in the portfolio without exposure

to excessive risk. The fund aims to invest across value, growth and market capitalisations.

Page 17: Life needs balance. So do your investments

16

Sector Category Rationale

Financials O/w • Private banks & select NBFCs • Shift in market share away from PSBs

Materials O/w • Metals (both ferrous and non-ferrous)• Expectations of deleveraging amongst India based companies

due to improved cash flows and capacity reduction in China

Consumer

DiscretionaryO/w

• Auto & Auto ancillaries, Hospitality, select names in

Home improvement and Consumer goods

• Focus on improving rural income, farmer welfare and the

masses in general, should aid overall consumption

Industrials O/w • Construction, EPC and building materials

• The outlook for Infrastructure sector remains positive with

expectations of pick up in activities and increased allocation of

government resources

Telecom E/w • Companies where bulk of the capex is behind• Industry should see the benefits of consolidation coming

through gradually

Information

TechnologyU/w

• Prefer companies driven by higher revenue visibility,

ability to adapt to industry disruptions and relative

valuations

• Higher revenue visibility, ability to adapt to industry disruptions

and relative valuations

Energy U/w• Project commissioning in the private / downstream

refiners• Potential to improve asset turns and return ratios

Consumer

StaplesU/w • Stocks with attractive valuations

• Underlying growth trends remains moderate and the valuations

continue to remain expensive

Healthcare U/w

• Prefer stocks with relatively higher growth, lower

dependence on select drugs to drive revenues and the

ones with lesser US FDA related concerns

• Relatively higher growth, lower dependence on select drugs to

drive revenues, fair valuations and the ones with lesser degree

of US FDA related concerns

Utilities U/w • Public sector companies• Reasonable visibility of growth and are suffering from poor

capital allocation

Focus themes in equityOpportunities across sectors

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

O/w – Over weight, U/w – Under weight, E/w – Equal weight, as at August 2018

Page 18: Life needs balance. So do your investments

17

Why optimal duration strategy?Freedom to position the portfolio favorably

Performance

Potential to capture the superior risk adjusted performance due to flexibility to move allocation towards

favorable duration instruments

Volatility

Potential to avoid extreme risks as the fund manager would aim to reduce duration in a volatile

environment

Risk

Ability to avoid extreme risk as FM has a flexibility to position a portfolio in the favorable short-mid-long

durations

Quality

Investments in better rated credit quality instruments that generally have low capital risk

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 19: Life needs balance. So do your investments

18

Potential opportunities in debtOptimal duration strategy

Corporate bonds

Corporate bond segment is expected to move in tandem with G-Secs

There are pockets of better spreads opportunities. 6 months to 3 year corporate bond segment with over 200

bps over repo rate seems to have priced more than one rate hike by RBI.

5 year average spread is at 130 bps

Going forward and therefore offers good carry with favorable risk reward.

Investment style

Investors are saved from the predicament on whether they should invest in long bond or short bond oriented

funds as the fund manager manages the portfolio composition based on the interest rate cycle.

Data as at August 2018

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

6.84 7.08 7.50

7.83 7.97 8.06 8.10 8.12 8.20 8.16 8.17 8.02 8.35

7.34 7.61

8.41 8.74 8.75 8.88 8.91 8.88 8.83 8.81 8.84 8.79 8.87

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y

Yield Curve %

Government of India Yield PSU AAA Corporate Yield

Page 20: Life needs balance. So do your investments

19

Who should invest in HEHF?Suited for all types of investors

Cautious - New to equity

HEHF is well suited for investors with no equity exposure due to volatility associated with

equity asset class. HEHF can provide higher return potential with lesser volatility.

Moderate – Measured equity exposure

HEHF is well suited for an informed investor who is looking for adequate exposure to equities

at lesser risk

Disciplined – Balanced approach

HEHF is best suited for investors looking for a cost effective and optimal asset allocation

product

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Page 21: Life needs balance. So do your investments

20

Aggressive hybrid portfolio - as represented by the S&P BSE 200 TRI Index (70% weightage) and CRISIL Composite

Bond Fund Index (30% weightage) – has been at par with equity (S&P BSE Sensex TRI ) and has outperformed debt

(CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index) across all timeframes.

HEHF provides wealth-building opportunityPrudent asset mix offers comparative risk adjusted performance across all timeframes

Source: BSE, CRISIL Research

Aggressive hybrid portfolio represented by the S&P BSE 200 TRI Index (70% weightage) and CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index (30% weightage), equity by the S&P BSE Sensex TRI and debt by the

Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index

Point to point returns for the period ended 31 July 2018

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Performance of aggressive hybrid portfolio

Higher equity allocation could help achieve growth and increase the potential

of beating inflation in longer timeframes

11%

15%

12%11%12%

16%

13%12%

8%

9%8%

8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

3 years 5 years 7 years 10 years

An

nu

alis

ed

re

turn

s %

Aggressive Hybrid Portfoio

Equity

Debt

Page 22: Life needs balance. So do your investments

21

Why should you invest in HEHF?To be a disciplined investor

Optimal asset allocation

Get exposure to two asset classes in one fund which are not just different, but

complementary

Asset rebalancing

Maintain the desired asset allocation level in your portfolio with asset rebalancing

Dual advantage

Grow your investments with equity and stabilise the volatility with debt

Magical tax effect

Switching between both asset classes for the desired asset allocation portfolio has no tax

incidence #

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance # HEHF invest and rebalances portfolio within equity and debt asset class. HEHF has equity fund status and subject to equity taxation.

Page 23: Life needs balance. So do your investments

22

Fund Name HSBC Equity Hybrid Fund

BenchmarkA customized index with 70% weight to S&P BSE

200 and 30% weight to CRISIL Composite Bond

Fund Index.

Minimum

Application

Amount

Rs 5,000/- per application and in multiples of Re. 1/-

thereafter

Minimum

Application

Amount

(SIP)

Minimum Investment Amount - Rs. 1000 (monthly)

or Rs. 3000 (quarterly);

Minimum no. of instalments - 12 (monthly) or 4

(quarterly);

Minimum aggregate investment - Rs. 12,000.

TypeAn open ended hybrid scheme investing

predominantly in equity and equity related

instruments

Plans /

Options /

Sub options

Regular, Direct plans / Growth, Dividend / Payout,

Dividend Reinvestment

Loads

(including

SIP / STP

wherever

applicable)

Entry Load* : Nil

Exit Load:– Any redemption / switch-out within 1

year from the date of allotment:

For 10% of the units: NIL, For remaining units: 1%

If redeemed / switched out after 12 months from the

date of allotment: NIL”

SIP/STP/SWP AvailableFund

Managers

Neelotpal Sahai for Equity

Sanjay Shah for Debt

The exit loads set forth above is subject to change at the discretion of the AMC and such

changes shall be implemented prospectively

*In terms of SEBI circular no. SEBI/IMD/CIR No.4/ 168230/09 dated June 30, 2009, no entry

load will be charged by the Scheme to the investor effective August 1, 2009. Upfront

commission shall be paid directly by the investor to the AMFI registered Distributors based on

the investor’s assessment of various factors including the service rendered by the distributors.

No exit load (if any) will be charged for units allotted under bonus / dividend reinvestment option.

Data as of 31 July 2018

HSBC Equity Hybrid Fund (HEHF)Fund snapshot

To seek long term capital growth and income through investments in equity and equity related securities

and fixed income instruments. However, there is no assurance that the investment objective of the

scheme will be achieved.

Page 24: Life needs balance. So do your investments

23

Market Overview

Page 25: Life needs balance. So do your investments

24Bloomberg, MOSL Wealth Creation Study, as at Dec 2017 – Chart 1, Chart 2 – IMF GDP Projections for 2018

Note - Above forward looking statements are based on external current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could affect actual results

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

1.8

6.6

2.2

7.3

1.0

1.7

1.4

2.9

-3.0 2.0 7.0 12.0

Bra

zil

Chin

aE

uro

zon

eIn

dia

Jap

an

Russia

UK

US

IMF GDP Projections for 2018

Corporates across market caps are likely to benefit from GDP expansion

Encouraging signs of equity investmentsIndia GDP estimated - 2024

India’s GDP growth prospects are bright

– Global financial agencies are optimistic about India’s growth prospects. According to World Bank data, India has

now become the world’s sixth-biggest economy

– The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 7.3% growth in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019 for India as against

6.7% in 2017, making it the fastest growing country among major economies

– By 2024 India’s GDP may double from the FY16 levels

Page 26: Life needs balance. So do your investments

25

Bloomberg, MOSL – India Strategy, as at Aug 2018, * On the basis of estimates by MOSL

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Strong expectations on corporate earningsNifty EPS – expect reasonable rebound in FY 19-20

Nifty EPS is expected to rebound in FY 19-20 with about 22% CAGR* vs 5% CAGR in FY 08-18

– EPS estimates for Nifty at INR547/688 for FY19/FY20

– Lower base of FY17/18 to aid a sharp rebound in FY19-20

Strong expectations on the equities in FY19/20

73 78 92131

169 184236

281 251 247

315348 369

406 413394

423459

547

688

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19E

FY

20E

FY01-08: 21%

CAGR

FY08-18:

5% CAGR

FY19-20E: 22%

CAGR

19%

26%

Page 27: Life needs balance. So do your investments

26

MOSL, Bloomberg – Bulls & Bears, as at August 2018, 12-month forward P/E (x), 12-month forward P/B (x),

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

Trend in India’s market-cap-to-GDP (%)

Price to Book - SensexPrice to Earnings - Sensex

ROE - Sensex

Equity valuationsReasonably valued cash-rich companies are well positioned in current markets

Moderate valuations in large caps

– Sensex trades at a 12M forward P/E of 20x, at a premium to long-period average of 17.5x

– At 2.9x 12M forward P/B of Sensex is also marginally above its historical average 2.6x

– RoE of the Sensex (forward) stands at 15.0%, around its long-term average of 15.2%

Page 28: Life needs balance. So do your investments

27

Bloomberg, Data as at June 2018

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Past performance may or may not sustain and doesn’t guarantee the future performance

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Apr-

14

Jun-1

4

Aug-1

4

Oct-

14

De

c-1

4

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Jun-1

5

Aug-1

5

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

FIIs Vs Domestic MF (Equity) (USD bn) FII Equity

Dom MF Equity

Liquidity to support marketsDomestic equity inflows show visible expansion

Equity inflows to keep stocks trending

– India has recorded highest ever inflows by domestic MFs: $14Bn in CY17, 2.6X of CY16

Domestic equity inflows remain reasonably strong in 2018

Page 29: Life needs balance. So do your investments

28

GDP growth rebounds and economic activity normalizing after negative impact of Demonetization

disruption, GST transition and Corporate sector deleveraging wanes.

Government steps to address the growth issues, the bank recapitalization, and infrastructure push will

help in hastening the overall economic growth revival process.

Corporate earnings of Q1FY19 has confirmed rebound in earnings trend with Nifty companies’ revenue

and net profit grew by 24% and 20% respectively, excluding results of SBI and Tata Motors.

Looking ahead, the GST regime will lead to faster formalization of the economy, broaden the tax base,

improve the fiscal situation and improve the ease of doing business.

IBC is another key reform that will lead to structural repair in the banking industry and this may go a long

way in reviving the credit offtake in the economy, signs of which we are already witnessing.

The factors to closely track in the near to medium term would be corporate earnings, RBI’s policy actions,

election calendar culminating in the general elections, global crude price dynamics, rising trend of trade

war and protectionism in the developed economies, and the interest rate actions in the US.

We remain constructive on the India story from a medium to long term perspective.

We remain constructive on the India story from a medium to long term perspective.

Equity market outlookConstructive on India growth story

Expect meaningful acceleration in corporate earnings growth over the next 2 years

Page 30: Life needs balance. So do your investments

29

Debt market outlookShort duration funds are favorable

“Neutral” stance on rates indicates a lower probability of further hikes in near term

RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes released in the middle of the month was largely on

expected lines.

GST collection continues to remain lower than the INR 1 trillion per month target. The reason has been

cited as postponement of purchases given announcement of lower rates in mid-July. Going forward,

heading into festive season as spending improves, collections are expected to increase.

India Gross Domestic Product or GDP and Gross Value Added or GVA data came in higher than

expectations at 8.2% and 8.0% vis-à-vis expectations of around 7.6% and 6.5% respectively.

RBI has indicated that it would balance liquidity actively with choice of instruments depending on the

whether the action is to tackle durable or transient liquidity.

Going forward any positive movement will be driven by Open Market Operations or OMO announcement,

statements by the government around fiscal balance being maintained, easing of global tensions or

sharp and sustained reversal in oil prices.

10 year G-Sec is likely trade around 7.85 – 8.15 in the near term. In the near term, market will look for

cues from oil prices, direction of currency movement and global cues.

Page 31: Life needs balance. So do your investments

30

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited (HSBC) for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or

solicitation of an offer for purchase of any of the funds of HSBC Mutual Fund. All information contained in this document (including that sourced from third parties), is

obtained from sources HSBC, the third party believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified and HSBC, the third party makes no guarantee,

representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information and opinions contained within

the document are based upon publicly available information and rates of taxation applicable at the time of publication, which are subject to change from time to time.

Expressions of opinion are those of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. It does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and

the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any

securities or investment strategies that may have been discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that the views regarding future prospects may or

may not be realized. Neither this document nor the units of HSBC Mutual Fund have been registered in any jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain

jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibited and accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to

observe, any such restrictions.

© Copyright. HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited 2018, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited, 16, V.N. Road, Fort, Mumbai-400001

Email: [email protected]

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully.

Page 32: Life needs balance. So do your investments

31