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Life after START: U.S. Russian Nuclear Reduction effects

Co-sponsored by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program

and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Rodolfo L. Velazquez

How likely is a nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan on the one hand and China and India on the

other? The overall sentiment in the conference concerning a nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan

is one of alarm and concern. China's decision to sell two civilian power reactors to Pakistan, whose

proliferation record raise well-founded concern in the global community, and most importantly in South

Asia. When and if China's proposed deal goes through, it will stoke the already tense Pakistani-Indian

rivalry and damage future relations. If these happen, the community at large will suffer in South

Asia. How does the START treaty factor into this? Well, using the START template as a starting point, the

most viable and unifying option is to peacefully broker an agreement during the upcoming U.N. summit,

between the Pakistani/Chinese/Indian states that would help ease the escalating emotions surrounding

nuclear development and how the U.S. and Russia are trying to move away from nuclear proliferation in

order to reduce the role and importance of nuclear weapons, thus achieving a more secure and stable

global environment without the ever-looming threat of nuclear fallout.

During the conference there were several viewpoints on a missile-rich China surrounding the rapid

build-up of armaments in Asia, but chief amongst them was George Perkovich's, from the Carnegie

Endowment for International Peace. Is Chinas growing arsenal of accurate nuclear and non-nuclear,

ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles posing a threat serious enough to warrant dedicated

diplomacy? Mr. Perkovich believes that China's push in its defense program and consequently, the

massive influx and production of armaments and sophisticated military technology, are of the most

serious nature. He believes that as China continues to grow in power it will use its rapidly-improving

military capabilities to deter and influence, a threat that will potentially hinder and damage U.S. foreign

influence. It is essential, then, to continue our diplomatic relations with China to try and curb their

military armament build-up which would give them long-range precision strike capabilities with ballistic

and cruise missiles. One of the more heated topics discussed during the conference,"Realizing Ronald 

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Reagans Other Dream: Eliminating Nuclear-Capable Ground-launched Missiles," addressed U.S. foreign

policy concerning the threat that ground-launched missiles pose, and how China's focus and

development in this area is cause for alarm and more importantly, action.

The model which India and Pakistan will follow in regards to their nuclear proliferation, and

consequently, China, will serve as a comparison for U.S. - Russian relations concerning the StrategicArms Reduction Treaty. The New Start Treaty's success (or failure) will factor considerably on modern

nuclear policy in Southwest Asia, and the Middle-East. Victor Gilinsky, former Commissioner of the U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission, believes Russias dependence upon China as the primary source for

sustenance and trade in the Far East, will deter Russia from publicly calling China out on issues

concerning military security and armament. Russia realizes that it must maintain good relations with

both the U.S. and China, and that it must be very careful on issues where the U.S. and China disagree, in

order to avoid damaging relations with either country. If competition between China, Pakistan, and India

escalate, Russia will be forced to pick its side and in a potentially polarized situation where it is the U.S.

and allies vs. China and North Korea/Pakistan.

What new arms control approaches might be taken to address these emerging threats? Serving as the

primary model for the global community, the United States' ability to successfully negotiate with its

former Cold War enemy to achieve a new strategic relationship based on mutual trust, openness,

predictability, and cooperation, desiring to bring their respective nuclear postures into alignment with

this new relationship, and endeavoring to reduce further the role and importance of nuclear weapons

will prove tantamount to bringing stability to the Middle East and Asia as growing tensions over nuclear

capability are beginning to escalate to dangerous levels. Thus, the New START accords approach will lay

down the groundwork for future negotiations amongst the transatlantic community, and help bring

peace, security, and cooperation that will lead to a more unified community.