leveraging institutional data & department of education resources
TRANSCRIPT
Leveraging Institutional Data & Department of Education Resources
Help First Generation Students Manage Their Success &
Cross the Finish Line
Course Obstacles and Running the Race
Course Obstacles and Running the Race
Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment
Course Obstacles and Running the Race
Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment
Resources from Department of Education
Course Obstacles and Running the Race
Overview of the challenges in the current higher education environment
Resources from Department of Education
Leveraging your existing resources and data to create a GPS for your students’ success
Running into
Headwinds and Headlines
Running into
Headwinds and Headlines
the Chronicle of Higher Educationarticles over the last 9 years…
Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years
Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD
Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years
Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD
Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY
Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years
Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD
Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY
Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent
09/17/2008, by Paul Basken
Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years
Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD
Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY
Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent
09/17/2008, by Paul Basken
Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb05/03/2010, by Kelly Field
Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years
Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD
Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY
Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent
09/17/2008, by Paul Basken
Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb05/03/2010, by Kelly Field
Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton
Chronicle Articles over the last 9 years
Default Rate Falls to Record Low 09/26/2003, by STEPHEN BURD
Loan-Default Rate Creeps Up 09/22/2006, by ANNIE SHUPPY
Federal Student-Loan Default Rate Jumps 13 Percent
09/17/2008, by Paul Basken
Default Rates for Student Loans Continue Steady Climb05/03/2010, by Kelly Field
Student-Loan Default-Rate Climbs as Economy Falters09/12/2011, by Collin Eaton
Hurricanes Are Blamed for Loan-Default Rate Jump
09/26/2008, by PAUL BASKEN
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Home equity no longer a tool
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Home equity no longer a tool
College costs have increased
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Home equity no longer a tool
College costs have increased
Worst job market for graduates since WWII
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Home equity no longer a tool
College costs have increased
Worst job market for graduates since WWII
Student loans are getting more expensive
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Home equity no longer a tool
College costs have increased
Worst job market for graduates since WWII
Student loans are getting more expensive
2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever”
Half-time Talk—It Ain’t 2003
Borrower Limits have greatly increased
Home equity no longer a tool
College costs have increased
Worst job market for graduates since WWII
Student loans are getting more expensive
2011 “Most Indebted Class Ever”
Average Debt $27,300 (Mark Kantrowitz)
Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?
(The 2003 World Series - The Florida Marlins defeated the New York Yankees in six games, 4–2)
Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?
Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)
Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?
Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)
Financial literacy efforts
Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?
Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)
Financial literacy efforts
Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone)
Is Your Game Plan Stuck in 2003?
Entrance and Exits? (New player such as IGRAD)
Financial literacy efforts
Road map/gas station vs. GPS? (New players such as ESM Chaperone)
Loan comparison tools-phone booth or cell?
Do you have a game plan?
Small/Under-Resourced School Division
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Small/Under-Resourced School Division
Unit was created in response to a series of Presidential Executive Orders
Provide assistance to strengthen the administrative capabilities of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, and Tribally Controlled Colleges.
Small/Under-Resourced School Division
Historically Black Colleges & Universities – 99 Hispanic Serving Institutions – 168 Tribal Colleges and Universities – 32
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Small/Under-Resourced School Division
Small/Under-Resourced School Division
SURSD Services and Training• Internal Institutional Title IV
Assessments• Specialized Staff Training• Technical Assistance• On-campus Site Visits• Management Consultations
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Small/Under-Resourced School Division
Expand opportunities for these institutions to participate in Federal Programs.
Proactively identify the unique service needs of HBCU’s, HSI’s, and TCC’s as it relates to the management of the Title IV programs.
Services have expanded to include a broader population of all under-resourced schools.
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Small/Under-Resourced School Division Provide the assistance required to
ensure continued participation in the Title IV programs which the institution has chosen to participate.
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Small/Under-Resourced School Division
Unit was created in response to a series of Presidential Executive Orders
Provide assistance to strengthen the administrative capabilities of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, and Tribally Controlled Colleges.
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Contact Information
Joel V. Harrell, DirectorSmall Under-Resourced Schools Division
Federal Student Aid(404)974-9307
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Managing Retention
A good deal of institutional data is “stove piped.” However, if that data is joined, it can be effectively used to identify students and student borrowers who may be at risk.
This, in turn, can be used to create strategic intervention points to promote retention.
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Managing Default Rates
Students are terribly misinformed about their future debt obligations and income potential.
Institutional default rate management is most effective when schools still have control over their students post-graduate plans.
The future of delinquency management is going to be pre-emptive.
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Different sides of the same die
Enrolling, persisting and successfully financing a postsecondary education program are NOT mutually exclusive endeavors.
Institutional analyticsProjected Demographics
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2009
= 1
.0
Female Minority Aged 25+ Delayed Entry
Historical Projected
Projected Unemployment
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
USA
CT
Historical Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Proportion Female 51.1% 51.0% 51.0% 51.1% 51.1% 51.1% 51.1% 51.0% 50.7% 50.5%(% change) -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% -0.5%
(trend) Proportion Minority 39.6% 41.5% 43.8% 46.1% 48.3% 50.5% 52.6% 54.3% 55.7% 57.2%
(% change) 4.8% 5.4% 5.3% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6%(trend)
Proportion Aged 25+ 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%(% change) -6.0% -5.9% -5.8% -5.7% -5.5% -5.2% -4.9% -4.5% -4.1%
(trend) Proportion Delayed Entry 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
(% change) -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%(trend)
Nationalb 9.4% 8.7% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1%(% change) -7.7% -6.8% -5.9% -5.1% -4.4% -3.8% -3.2% -2.7% -2.8%
(trend) Connecticutb 8.8% 8.1% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.7%
(% change) -7.7% -6.8% -5.9% -5.1% -4.4% -3.8% -3.2% -2.7% -2.8%(trend)
Demographics
Unemployment Rate (U-3)
Institutional analytics (cont’d)
Historical Drivers of the Relative CDR Position
RankFactor(explanatory power) Notes
1 Proprietary Institution (8.5%)
One of the largest general factors
2Percent of Students receiving Pell Grants (5.4%)
~60% received Pell Grants in 2008-09
3Associate’s and Certificates Focus (3.7%)
Certificates are particularly associated with high CDRs
4High Proportion of Non-Traditional Students (3.7%)
Large proportion of students entering school after 30
5National Unemployment Rate(1.1%)
Aggregate levels correlated with national unemployment rates
Total 21% of variation explained by Top 5 drivers
Drivers of CDR Projections
RankFactor(explanatory power) Notes
1Local Unemployment Rate(48.9%)
Strong response to the current economic downturn
2Increase in Non-Traditional Students(5.5%)
• Older students• Students returning to
school after career
3Increase in Female Enrollment(-3.6%)
Steady growth mitigates CDR increases
4Increase in Certificates Awarded(3.1%)
Associated with higher default rates
5Lower Enrollment of Traditionally Underrepresented Groups (1.0%)
Growth mitigates CDR increases
Total 55% of variation explained by Top 5 drivers
Institutional analytics (cont’d)
Assumptions:
PercentileAverage
Mode10th 20th 30th 40th Median 60th 70th 80th 90th
2-Year CDR 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3%
3-year CDR 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 5.1% 6.3% 4.4% 3.5%
Factor Baseline Monte Carlo Range
Female Enrollment –0.1% annual increase -2.1% to +1.9% annual increase
Minority Enrollment +4% annual increase 0% to +8% annual increase
Aged 25+ Enrollment –6% annual increase –10% to –2% annual increase
Delayed Enrollment –4% annual increase –8% to 0% annual increase
Unemployment NABE projection Varied across Blue Chip projections
Results: 3-Year CDR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2-Year CDR
0% 5% 10% 15%
ESM Chaperone1001 19th Street NorthSuite 1200Arlington, Virginia [email protected]
Thank You
Carlo SalernoArlington, [email protected]
Joel V. [email protected]
Mike O’GradyNicole VerrettAtlanta, [email protected]