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F: Conclusions

Let’s Predict the Future!

A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis

Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY)

F1: Let’s Predict the Future:

Conclusions

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Conclusions

To conclude:• Technological developments will continue• User expectations will continue to grow• Organisations will need to be able to respond to

such change• Temptations to assume changes will be managed

and beneficial to organisation

Need for:• Evidence-based mechanisms for detecting changes• Open approaches for interpretting trends and

planning for implications of developments• Ability to be able to respond to the unexpected

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Methodology

Summary of methodology:• Monitor signals of developments and trends:

Quantative: e.g. numerical analyses Qualitative: e.g. literature surveys

• Document mechanisms used for observing trends• Provide interpretations of trends & implications

e.g. see OUseful and UK Web Focus blogs• Use systematic processes within organisation /

sector: Delphi process Scenario planning Open feedback

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Finding Our More (1)

NMC (New Media Consortium):• An international community of

experts in educational technology

Includes:• Practitioners who work with new

technologies every day • Visionaries who are shaping the

future of learning at think tanks, labs, research centers

• Staff and board of directors

Produces many useful reports including forthcoming 2014 Horizon Project Summit report on Future of Academic and Research Libraries

61993 reads

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The 2012 Horizon Project Retreat

Top 10 trends:1. The world of work is increasingly global and

increasingly collaborative.

2. People expect to work, learn, socialise, and play whenever and wherever they want to.

3. The Internet is becoming a global mobile network — and already is at its edges.

4. The technologies we use are increasingly cloud-based and delivered over utility networks, facilitating the rapid growth of online videos and rich media.

5. Openness — concepts like open content, open data, and open resources, along with notions of transparency and easy access to data and information — is moving from a trend to a value for much of the world.

In bed?!

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The 2012 Horizon Project Retreat

Top 10 trends:6. Legal notions of ownership and privacy lag behind

the practices common in society.

7. Real challenges of access, efficiency, and scale are redefining what we mean by quality and success.

8. The Internet is constantly challenging us to rethink learning and education, while refining our notion of literacy.

9. There is a rise in informal learning as individual needs are redefining schools, universities, and training.

10. Business models across the education ecosystem are changing.

Leaving the institution

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Finding Our More (2)

IFLA Trend Report:• “a selection of resources

to help you understand where libraries fit into a changing society

• Insights Document summarises information contained on the Trend Report website for IFLA members.

• It identifies five high level trends and considers possible future "collision points" between trends affecting the role and identity of libraries.”

See http://trends.ifla.org/

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IFLA Trends

The IFLA Trends Process

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IFLA Trends

The IFLA Trends Process:

• Highlights privacy as one of the top 5 trends

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IFLA Trends

The IFLA Trends Process:

• Highlights privacy as one of the top 5 trends

• Also highlights opportunities for ‘hyper-connected societies’

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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)

ETAG: • Exploring short-

and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions

• Contributions welcomed

http://feltag.org.uk/etag/

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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)

ETAG: • Exploring short-

and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions

• Contributions welcomed

• Comments by Twitter hashtags & email

http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/cluster-1/

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ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)

ETAG: • Exploring short-

and long-term actions for UK Government, educational institutions

• Contributions welcomed

• Comments by Twitter hashtags & email

http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/cluster-1/

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Thoughts

Some final thoughts:

• How do the NMC, IFLA Trends and related predictions relate to ours?

• Would you like to use the scenario planning exercise based on the NMC and IFLA Trends predictions in your orgaisation?

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Next Steps

For you to consider:

• What action plans do you intend to implement when you return to work?

• What recommendations do you intend to make to your colleagues?

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Questions

Any final questions or comments?