8/9/2016

1

Growth & Trends in Housing and Transportation

MOVING FORWARD

Kendra MontanariSocioeconomic Program Manager

Mid-Region Council of Governments

Let’s get acquainted• I am going to talk about Growth

• I am going to talk about Millennials

• I am going to talk about the Greater Albuquerque Metro Area

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MRCOG – REGIONAL PLANNING

• 4 Counties

• 2 Urbanized Areas

• 20 Incorporated Places

• 13 Pueblos/Tribal Lands

• 900,000 People

• 380,000 Jobs

Transportation

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The Economy

Targeting Limited Funds

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UNDERSTANDING TRENDS

Where are we going to grow?

How much are we going to grow?

How will people get around?

What industries will see job growth?

How long is it going to take to get there?

What kind of housing will we need?

Population and Job GrowthEMPLOYMENT

741,

932

889,

625

907,

301

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cent

ral N

ew M

exico

Pop

ulat

ion

POPULATION

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Migration3,

180

9,47

2

7,53

1

10,2

43

12,7

08 14

,265

10,4

31

5,61

1

5,06

2

1,16

2

3,10

7

(276

)

(1,5

52)

(1,9

59)

(884

)

(3,000)

(1,000)

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net M

igra

tion

(Dom

estic

and

Inte

rnat

iona

l)NET MIGRATION

Workforce Leakage

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Employment Growth

Unemployment Decline

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Home Sales are up

MF Vacancies Extremely Low

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MF Rents Extremely High

Where are we headed?

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460,000 new people

190,000 new homes

185,000 new jobs

2040 Forecast

County Population ProjectionMRCOG Region

2012 Population

2040 Population

Numeric Growth Pace of Growth

BERNALILLO COUNTY 675,548 987,080 311,532 46.1%

SANDOVAL COUNTY 135,950 220,881 84,931 62.5%

*SOUTHERN SANTA FE 10,268 17,661 7,393 72.0%

TORRANCE COUNTY 16,187 21,788 5,601 34.6%

VALENCIA COUNTY 77,363 127,981 50,618 65.4%

TOTAL 915,316 1,375,391 460,075 50.3%

*Southern Santa Fe includes the greater Edgewood area.

Source: MRCOG, UNM-GPS 2040 population projection by county aggregated to the regional level.

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NEW MRCOG + ULI NM REPORT

Available at www.mrcog-nm.gov

Data Sources*5,200 people surveyed

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HOUSING

We desire urban areas

* 29 percent in US desire to live in the city

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This is true across all age groups

People express a desire for more housing choices…Types of Housing Most Needed in Albuquerque / Bernalillo County Percent

Affordable Housing 40%Mixed-use Housing 32%Family / Multi-generational 20%Single-family Homes 19%Townhouses / Condos 16%Senior Housing 14%Transitional / Group housing 9%Apartments 6%

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We are renting more…Decline in Homeownership

Changing Characteristics of Renters

We are renting more…Albuquerque, MSA

2005 2014 Growth

Homeowners 217,219 224,591 7,372

Renters 102,458 117,961 15,503

Yet there were 25 single family homes built for every 1 multi-family unit over the same time.

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Single Family has outpaced Multi-Family growth

New Residential Construction0

100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Residential Permit Segments

MF Units

SF Permits

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MF Units as a share of Total

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Multi-Family Demand“In order to align with national

averages an additional 30,000 multi-family

units will need to be built.”

Projections support changing household compositionAlbuquerque, MSA Household Growth: 2010 - 2040

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

+93,0001-Person

Households

+94,0002-Person

Households(No Kids)

+43,000Households with

Kids

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Transportation

We are driving lessUS – Per Capita VMT (annual) MSA – Per Capita VMT (daily)

… but cars are not going away anytime soon

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We are using transit more

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Annual ABQ RIDE and NM Rail Runner Express Ridership

NM Rail Runner Express

ABQ RIDE Total

Millennials use alternative modes at higher rates

Nationally, Millennials are over 4 times more likely to use transit then Gen-X

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Satisfaction with existing transportation choices …

Level of satisfaction increases with age.

Younger RespondentsFewer transportation options

A change in values is at play…Change in behavior of 18 – 34 Year Olds, 2001 & 2009

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Socio-demographic Shift…

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Never Married Live With Parent Bachelors or Higher Employed Living Below PovertyLevel

Persons 18-34 Years of Age; 2000 and 2013

2000 2013

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

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Putting it in Perspective• Yes, MANY Millennials will continue to choose to buy single

family homes in the suburbs as they age

• Yes, MANY Millennials will drive more as they become more immersed in professional careers

• However, due to the sheer size of the age group, this means more people in cities AND suburbs, and more people in cars AND transit/bike/walk

Long Story Short• Today there are a lot of

options for people who want traditional rural and suburban lifestyles.

• There is a need for more options for people who want to live in urban or mixed use areas with access to transit, bike and walk facilities.

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Rethinking the Suburbs

“Suburban development will need to integrate key elements into their design, like walkability, a variety of

housing types, proximity to shopping and entertainment, and

convenient access to transit in order to remain competitive.”

*Housing in America 2015, ULI

2040 TRANSPORTATION PLAN

Looks at future growth areas

Prioritizes future transportation funds

Collaborative process

Updated every 4 years

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Bike/Pedestrian: $285 Million (5%)

Roadway Capacity: $2.2 Billion (35%)

Highway/Bridge Preservation:

$1.6 Billion (26%)

ITS: $154 Million (2%)

Other $193 Million (3%)

Transit Capital & Operations: $1.8

Billion (29%)

2040 MTP Projects by Type

Summary Roadway Statistics (PM Peak Period)2040 vs. 2012

• Hours Traveled ↑162%

• Miles Traveled ↑56%

• Average Speeds ↓40%

• CO₂ Emissions ↑42% Mid

-Reg

ion

Coun

cil o

f Go

vern

men

ts o

f New

Mex

ico

Increase in Traffic Volume: 2012-2040

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Crossing the River in 2040

• River crossing trips increase by 41 percent

• Speeds in the westbound direction in the PM peak period fall to single digits

2 MPH

3 MPH

9 MPH

5 MPH

14 MPH

4 MPH

8 MPH

2 MPH

15 MPH

Alternative Scenario

• Emphasizes future investments in:• Activity Centers• Transit Nodes

• Emphasizes more employment west of the Rio Grande / more housing to the east.

Mid

-Reg

ion

Coun

cil o

f Go

vern

men

ts o

f New

Mex

ico

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Roadway Measures

Systemwide Speed Hours Traveled Miles Traveled

-40%

162%

56%

-31%

117%

49%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Trend

Preferred

Roadway Measures

42%

50%

38%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

River Crossing Trips Average Commute Time

Trend

Preferred

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Transit Measures

34% 29%

138%

102%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Total Ridership Passenger Miles Traveled

Trend

Preferred

Key Takeaways• Investments along transit corridors and within

Activity Centers improve travel in the region.

• A better balance of homes and jobs west and east of the river shortens trips.

• Better transportation options and performance makes our region more sustainable AND more competitive.

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BENEFITS TO BUSINESSES

Growing demand expected to continue

More diverse rental pool

Worker access to jobs expands labor pool

Residents more likely to shop local if they can walk there

Reduced parking requirements lowers costs and increases revenue potential

Transportation Access & Rents•24% higher in areas with highwalk score

•24% higher in areas with a high bike score

•26% higher in areas with a high transit score

SOURCE: Apartment Association of New Mexico

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Desirable from a Consumer Perspective

Smart from a Transportation Perspective

Beneficial from a Business Perspective

MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT IN ACTIVITY CENTERS AND

ALONG TRANSIT CORRIDORS

KENDRA MONTANARIKMONTANARI@MRCOG-NM.GOV(505)724-3601

Q&A

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RIO RANCHO APARTMENT DEMAND INFOGRAPHIC

= Apartment Unit

10 people = support one apartment unit

Rio Rancho

OVERALL INVESTOR TRENDS

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OVERALL INVESTOR TRENDS

INCREASING FLIGHT TO QUALITY / OUT OF STATE INVESTMENT MOVING IN

HI Investor

HI Investor

NM InvestorNM InvestorNM Investor

NM InvestorNM InvestorNM InvestorCA Investor

Causing downward pressure on CAP rates and returns, increasing prices

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AANM INVESTMENT PANEL

Erik Olson CCIM, Senior Vice president CBRE

Chuck Sheldon CCIM, Owner T or C Management

Todd Clarke CCIM, CEO NM Apartment Advisors Inc.

WHAT THEY SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR?

1978 or newer (or really cool and old)

High Walkscore

Area where someone else is spending a lot of money

High appreciation in single family residential