lessons from the younger dryas
TRANSCRIPT
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Will Russack
Climate Change and Social Response
4/3/13
Lessons from the Younger Dryas
Introduction
In a modern world where our global climate is undergoing rapid change,
historical and paleoclimate records of abrupt climate change are critical to
understanding how these changes occur and what the repercussions may be. One
such event that has always captivated paleoclimate scientists is the Younger Dryas
(YD). The YD occurred in the middle of a warming trend, when temperatures
suddenly dropped up to 15C, including global decreases of 5-6C within the first
few decades (Berger, 1990). The proposed cause for the YD is the disruption of the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC or MOC), a major ocean circuit
that plays a key role in global climate (Srokosz et al., 2012; Schmittner et al., 2007).
The changes accompanying the YD had both positive and negative impacts for
ancient humans, and it is considered a major turning point in human society (Goebel
et al., 2011; Moore & Hillman, 1992). Analysis of current climate trends indicates the
possibility of a similar AMOC disruption due to anthropogenic activity.
Understanding the outcomes of such a major event in the near future is critical as
we continue to respond to the threat of abrupt climate change.
About 14,500 years ago, the last glacial phase in Earths climate ended and a
warmer interglacial phase began. However, around 12,800 years ago this warming
trend was interrupted by the Younger Dryas, which pushed the Northern
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Hemisphere back into near-glacial conditions (NOAA; Murton et al., 2010; Carlson et
al., 2007). The process was quick, and within a few decades climate had changed
dramatically. Geological evidence from the Younger Dryas shows far-reaching
tundra conditions in Europe, vegetation changes in the American West, increased
aridity in the Middle East, and shifting monsoons in Southern Asia, among other
changes (Weber et al., 2011; Moore & Hillman, 1992; Goebel et al., 2011). Several
factors have been cited as possible causes of the Younger Dryas including volcanic
activity, irradiation from a nearby supernova, and extraterrestrial impact. However,
the most supported theory is that massive quantities of freshwater from glacial
lakes emptied into the ocean and interrupted important oceanic systems, including
the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and therefore the creation of the
North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) (McManus et al., 2004; Carlson et al., 2007;
Tarasov & Peltier, 2005; Rayburn et al., 2011).
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation & Global Climate
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is a global ocean circuit,
often referred to as the great ocean conveyor belt.1 It is responsible for the
transportation of warmer waters to the northern Atlantic Ocean off the coast of
Greenland and Norway, where the water cools and sinks, forming NADW. This deep
water returns slowly towards the equator, where it mixes with warmer water and
once again rises to the surface and moves northward, thus completing the cycle
(Figure 1. NOAA; Berger 1990; Srokosz et al., 2012). Besides heat, the AMOC is
1The MOC is sometimes referred to as the Thermohaline Circulation (THC). However, the two arenot synonymous; the MOC is what can be determined and roughly measured in practice, whereas the
THC is a theory used to explain global ocean transport of heat and salinity.
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responsible for transporting water, salt, carbon, and other nutrients across the
globe. In fact, the AMOC is accountable for about 25% of the total heat transport to
the northern latitudes, contributing to the temperate climate of northwest Europe
(Schmittner et al., 2007; Srokosz et al., 2012). The MOC and the creation of the
NADW are critical to the global climate, and alterations to the circuit have
potentially large consequences (Schmittner et al., 2007; Srokosz et al., 2012; Wood
et al., 2003).
Deglaciation is a complex process that occurs in a pulsating manner, where
periods of meltwater discharge are followed by times of lesser activity (Berger,
1990). At the end of the last glacial maximum (LGM), freshwater from the North
American Laurentide Ice Sheet (NAIS or LIS) drained through the Mississippi River
valley to the Gulf of Mexico (Rayburn et al., 2011; Berger, 1990; Tarasov & Peltier,
2005). However, as the LIS continued to recede with the warming climate, the
changing margin of the ice sheet opened up new drainage routes for glacial
meltwater (Rayburn et al., 2011; McManus et al., 2004). Scientists speculate that a
large quantity of freshwater entered the northern Atlantic Ocean and disrupted the
MOC and deep-water production. Specifically, a colossal glacial lake called Lake
Agassiz has attracted considerable attention as the leading candidate for such a
massive freshwater influx (Rayburn et al., 2011; Tarasov & Peltier, 2005). Although
Lake Agassiz has been generally agreed upon as the source of this flood, debate
exists over the supposed pathway. Early evidence seemed to identify an eastern
drainage route through the St. Lawrence river basin into the North Atlantic Ocean,
but recent research has instead shown support for the existence of a northwestern
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channel that emptied into the Arctic Ocean (Figure 2. Tarasov & Peltier, 2005;
Murton et al., 2010).
Freshwater Forcing as the Cause of the Younger Dryas
The first to postulate a pathway for this catastrophic flood was Broecker et
al. who proposed that the Younger Dryas was initiated by a diversion of meltwater
from the Mississippi drainage to the St. Lawrence drainage system (1989: 318).
Using oxygen isotopes from planktonic foraminifera in cores from the Gulf of
Mexico, Broecker demonstrated that that discharge from glacial Lake Agassiz ceased
to flow southward at the onset of the Younger Dryas about 13,000 years ago.
The retreat of the LIS exposed new bedrock in the St. Lawrence valley,
allowing the relationship between river geochemistry and underlying bedrock
lithology and resulting changes in foraminifera to be used as tracers of glacial runoff
from different areas (Figure 3. Carlson et al., 2007). Results show that increases in
Mg/Ca and U/Ca at the onset of the YD indicate an increase in runoff over Mg-rich
and U-rich bedrock as freshwater drained through the St. Lawrence basin (Carlson
et al., 2007).
More recently, data from varve chronology, sedimentation rates, proglacial
lake volumes, and sediment cores demonstrated evidence for the occurrence of two
large, closely spaced freshwater outflows through the St. Lawrence valley near the
start of the YD event (Rayburn et al., 2011). Foraminifera fossils and chemical
changes from cores in the Champlain Sea reveal multiple shifts between freshwater
and marine scenarios, indicating several large influxes of glacial meltwater (Figure
4.Rayburn et al., 2011).These shifts to temporary lacustrine conditions align
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chronologically with the beginning of the Younger Dryas, leading the authors to
conclude that We can think of no better candidate than glacial Lake Agassiz for the
great volume of fresh water that must have passed through the Champlain Sea at
this time (Rayburn et al., 2011: 550).
Despite such evidence, doubt regarding the existence of a St. Lawrence
channel persists. Recent research shows evidence of a channel to the northwest
through which Lake Agassiz would have drained to the Arctic Ocean (Tarasov &
Peltier, 2005; Murton et al., 2010). Although Tarasov & Peltier believe that a
massive freshwater discharge disrupted the MOC, they maintain that in order for
freshwater to significantly influence the MOC it must be directly deposited into the
region of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, which occurs in the Greenland-
Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. Planktonic 18O data from sedimentary cores in the
western Fram Strait exhibit evidence of a major freshwater discharge into the GIN
seas during most of, if not all of the YD (Tarasov & Peltier, 2005).
Additional evidence of flooding in the northwest Mackenzie River valley
comes from geological unconformities due to fluvial erosion from major discharge
events (Murton et al., 2010). Large quantities of glacial till and aeolian sand deposits
have been stripped and immediately covered by large gravelly beds at unusually
high elevations, indicating high-energy fluvial episodes (Figure 5. Murton et al.,
2010: 740). The presence of two gravel beds indicates two flooding events, the first
of which occurred just before the Younger Dryas (~ 13,000 years B.P) therefore
providing compelling evidence that such a flood was responsible for the YD. This
physical geologic evidence is the kind that many critics claim is missing from the
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supposed St. Lawrence channel (Murton et al., 2010; Tarasov & Peltier, 2005).
However, it does not eliminate the prospect of freshwater discharge to the east. In
fact, a major discharge event in the northwest combined with modest but consistent
flooding through the St. Lawrence basin could be responsible for the continuation of
the YD until the LIS readvanced and obstructed the channels (Tarasov & Peltier,
2005; Murton et al., 2010; Clark et al., 2001).
Whether a massive flood from Lake Agassiz emptied to the northwest, east,
or both, studies indicate that over 9,500 km3 of freshwater was released (Murton et
al., 2010; Rayburn et al., 2011). Such a large quantity of freshwater entering any
combination of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans would decrease NADW
formation, thereby greatly reducing the MOC (Rayburn et al., 2011; Murton et al.,
2010; McManus et al., 2004; Srokosz et al., 2012; Tarasov & Peltier, 2005; Clark et
al., 2001). Critics claim that for thousands of years before the Younger Dryas, Lake
Agassiz discharged large amounts of freshwater into the Gulf of Mexico without
affecting the MOC (Tarasov & Peltier, 2005; Carlson et al., 2007). However, as
Tarasov & Peltier write, The mostimportant factor in determining the effect of
freshwater forcing upon the MOC is not the total amount of meltwater, but rather its
regional distribution (2005: 663). It is unlikely that freshwater deposited in the
Gulf of Mexico would make it intact to the North Atlantic, thereby explaining the
stability of the MOC before the YD (Tarasov & Peltier, 2005)2. However, when
freshwater from Agassiz was rerouted to the northwest or east it was deposited
directly in the area of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation, slowing the MOC to
2In fact, Clark et al. postulates that freshwater injection to the Gulf of Mexico actually has thepotential to energize the MOC.
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a crawl and plunging the Earth into the brief but intense cold period of the YD.
Human Activity During the Younger Dryas
The Younger Dryas had positive and negative impacts on ancient humans
who had to adapt to the sudden cooling and increased aridity (Burdukiewicz, 2011;
Moore & Hillman, 1992; Weber et al., 2011). Near-glacial temperatures, higher wind
speeds, and decreased vegetation made survival more difficult as hunter-gatherer
populations decreased across northern Europe. The increase in migratory reindeer
forced groups to become more mobile, and bow-and-arrow artifacts become more
plentiful (Burdukiewicz, 2011; Weber et al., 2011). In southwest Asia, where many
growing sedentary populations relied on local plants and fruits, the increased
aridity was so disruptive that it forced the abandonment of several sites (Moore &
Hillman, 1992). In addition, archaeological evidence shows the possibility of dogs
being used by YD-era hunters in northern Europe, indicating a sophisticated level of
planning and organization (Weber et al., 2011). The findings of long-blade
technology near the end of YD also indicate a major technological advancement
(Burdukiewicz, 2011; Weber et al., 2011). Lastly, the shortages in resources lead
some researchers to suggest an increased level of cooperation and communication
between hunter-gatherer groups (Burdukiewicz, 2011; Weber et al., 2011)
While the YD caused significant disruptions in culture and settlement in
Europe and southwest Asia, humans in the Great Basin of the U.S experienced
favorable conditions (Moore & Hillman, 1992: 482; Goebel et al., 2011)
Interestingly, the YD brought wetter conditions to the western U.S, refilling lakes
and creating ample marshes and meadows rich with life (Goebel et al., 2011). Like
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their European counterparts, humans in the Great Basin lived a mobile lifestyle,
arriving at shelters with prepared toolkits including scrapers, arrows, blades, and
even eyed needles made from bone (Figure 6. Goebel et al., 2011). The additional
finding of awls, needles, and cordage indicate the production of nets used to catch
birds and perhaps fish (Goebel et al., 2011).
Overall, humans in both Europe and North America demonstrated increased
mobility during the YD and the maintenance of a rich stone, bone, and perishable
tool kit which they carried with them over long distances (Goebel et al., 2011: 498;
Weber et al., 2011). Human populations on both sides of the Atlantic showed a
remarkable ability to adapt to the sudden climate change by increasing inter-group
communication and developing new technology and hunting techniques. In fact,
many archaeologists cite the YD as being a contributing factor in the subsequent
development of agriculture across much of Europe (Moore & Hillman, 1992; Srokosz
et al., 2012).
Discussion
Extensive modeling and current research strongly indicates that
anthropogenic activity is directly contributing to the rapidwarming of our global
climate (Solomon et al., 2007). The main source of this warming is the creation of
greenhouse gases by burning fossil fuels (Solomon et al., 2007). Among the many
consequences of this activity is the rapid melting of glacial ice in Greenland and the
Arctic, which has already begun (Wood et al., 2003; Solomon et al., 2007). As the YD
demonstrates, a rapid influx of freshwater in the north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans
has the potential to drastically weaken the AMOC and trigger climate changes on a
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global scale. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
released a detailed report on the state of climate change and its potential effects,
which stated, Based on current simulations, it is very likely that the AMOC will slow
down during the course of the 21stcentury. (Srokosz et al., 2012: 1669)
Would a current or future weakening of the MOC cause a similar cold snap
like the Younger Dryas? Certainly the less informed might see such an outcome as a
positive change that could combat global warming. However, the MOC is not a
simple mechanism but an intricately complex system that we do not fully
understand (Srokosz et al., 2012; Wood et al., 2003). In most models, a weakening of
the MOC does result in a cooling period in similar geographic regions as the YD.
However, such a cooling would also result in an increased warming in the southern
hemisphere, as the AMOC would no longer be removing heat from that area (Wood
et al., 2003). In addition to these temperature shifts, major precipitation changes
would occur, notably a weakening of the East Pacific and Indian monsoons (Srokosz
et al., 2012; Wood et al., 2003). An anthropogenic forcing of freshwater would also
strengthen storms in the north Atlantic, and some researchers point to recent
events such as Hurricane Sandy as evidence that this has already begun (Srokosz et
al., 2012).
Although our human ancestors managed to adapt to the sudden climate shift
of the YD relatively well, our population today is several magnitudes larger and still
growing. As population grows, available agricultural land continues to shrink, and
several countries face water shortages. The precipitation changes accompanying a
MOC weakening would affect primary productivity and therefore vegetation growth
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around the world. Models run by Wood et al. predict the following decreases in
primary productivity: 16% in Europe, 36% in the Indian subcontinent, and 109% in
Central America (a decrease over 100% indicates the current vegetation would be
unsustainable). Such decreases would have drastic impacts on agriculture, livestock,
and water availability. The danger of widespread famine and drought, especially in
areas like the Indian subcontinent where populations are growing rapidly, would be
incredibly high.
Part of the reason YD-era humans were capable of adapting to the climate
changes was their increased cooperation. However, given current world politics, it is
not unlikely that substantial food and water shortages would lead to invasions and
conflict between multiple countries, possibly leading to large scale war. On the other
hand, an YD event in the near future could also lead to major innovations in food
production, greenhouse gas emissions, or other areas in the same way the YD is
credited with the agricultural revolution.
Perhaps the most troubling repercussion of a MOC weakening would be its
effect on CO2 levels. The North Atlantic is a major sink for atmospheric carbon
dioxide, and a shutdown of NADW formation would mean anthropogenic CO2 has
one less place to go besides the atmosphere (Srokosz et al., 2012). Human activity
has already greatly distorted the global carbon balance, and the loss of such a major
storage unit could create a vicious cycle of increased global warming and a further
shutdown of the AMOC.
Conclusion
Study of the last deglaciation demonstrates that the rapid discharge of
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freshwater from melting glaciers in the north Atlantic and Arctic Ocean can lead to a
weakening of the AMOC and therefore the cessation of NADW formation, which can
in turn trigger a rapid decrease in temperature along with several other changes.
Anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases has instigated a current period of rapid
warming that has the potential to trigger another weakening of the AMOC, which
could have drastic implications for meeting human societys growing food and water
needs. The bottom line, however, is that the AMOC is a complex system that we do
not fully understand, and even our most sophisticated models cannot predict every
change that would accompany an AMOC shutdown. The best scenario would be one
in which we never have to find out what the consequences would be. By focusing on
current techniques for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and ways to improve
our food security, such a catastrophe can be adverted.
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Supplementary Figures
Figure 1. Global overturning circulation model. From Schmittner et al., 2007.
Figure 2. Possible drainage routes from Lake Agassiz. From Murton et al., 2010
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Figure 3. Identification of exposed bedrocks in St. Lawrence Valley and
corresponding geochemical tracers. From Carlson et al., 2007.
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Figure 4. Cores depicting evidence of alternation between lacustrine and marine
environments in the Champlain Sea. From Rayburn et al., 2011.
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Figure 5. Stratigraphic sections depicting flood events near the mouth of the
Mackenzie River. From Murton et al., 2010.
Figure 6. Human artifacts, including eyed needles (b,c), found at a Great Basin site.
From Goebel et al., 2011.
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