lesson 1 - a - copy
TRANSCRIPT
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The PowerThe Power
Of Of MacroeconomicsMacroeconomics
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An Overview Of ModernAn Overview Of Modern
MacroeconomicsMacroeconomics
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Lesson 1Lesson 1 Colander Colander McConnellMcConnell Samuelson &Samuelson & Schiller Schiller
& Brue& Brue NordhausNordhaus
33rdrd EditionEdition 1414thth EditionEdition 1616thth EditionEdition 88thth EditionEdition
Complete Textbook Complete Textbook (includes both Micro-and(includes both Micro-and
Macroeconomics)Macroeconomics)
Macroeconomics TextMacroeconomics Text
OnlyOnly
7, 87, 8 7, 87, 8 20, 2120, 21 5, 6, 75, 6, 7
7, 87, 8 7, 87, 8 4, 54, 5 5, 6, 75, 6, 7
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 55
MacroeconomicsMacroeconomics
in Our Personal Livesin Our Personal Lives
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 66
MacroeconomicsMacroeconomics
in Our Professional Livesin Our Professional Lives
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The Real Power of MacroeconomicsThe Real Power of Macroeconomics
3 Macroeconomics can help answer theseMacroeconomics can help answer these
questions because it arms us with a newquestions because it arms us with a new
way of thinking about the world we liveway of thinking about the world we live
and work in.and work in.3 Indeed, this is the real power of Indeed, this is the real power of
macroeconomics, it helps us filter andmacroeconomics, it helps us filter and
sort and process all of the information wesort and process all of the information weare bombarded with every day in theare bombarded with every day in the
media.media.
3 Macroeconomics can help answer theseMacroeconomics can help answer these
questions because it arms us with a newquestions because it arms us with a new
way of thinking about the world we liveway of thinking about the world we live
and work in.and work in.3 Indeed, this is the real power of Indeed, this is the real power of
macroeconomics, it helps us filter andmacroeconomics, it helps us filter and
sort and process all of the information wesort and process all of the information weare bombarded with every day in theare bombarded with every day in the
media.media.
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Seeing Patterns and TrendsSeeing Patterns and Trends
FEDERAL RESERVE
ValueValue
of Yenof Yen
fallsfalls
relativerelativetoto
dollar dollar
FederalFederal
ReserveReserve
Bank Bank
raisesraises
interestinterest
ratesrates
Coffee beanCoffee bean
shortage inshortage in
BrazilBrazil
A fall inA fall in
consumer consumer
confidenceconfidence
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3 Jim Wells used to own a manufacturing business thatJim Wells used to own a manufacturing business that
made high precision components for computer games.made high precision components for computer games.3 Every July, Jim had to decide how many components toEvery July, Jim had to decide how many components to
produce for the upcoming holiday season, and everyproduce for the upcoming holiday season, and every
year, he had simply doubled his production.year, he had simply doubled his production.
– Since he never had any trouble moving the inventory, JimSince he never had any trouble moving the inventory, Jimdecided to do the same thing again -- even though it meantdecided to do the same thing again -- even though it meant
taking out a big short term loan to finance the expansion.taking out a big short term loan to finance the expansion.
3 Jim Wells used to own a manufacturing business thatJim Wells used to own a manufacturing business that
made high precision components for computer games.made high precision components for computer games.3 Every July, Jim had to decide how many components toEvery July, Jim had to decide how many components to
produce for the upcoming holiday season, and everyproduce for the upcoming holiday season, and every
year, he had simply doubled his production.year, he had simply doubled his production.
– Since he never had any trouble moving the inventory, JimSince he never had any trouble moving the inventory, Jimdecided to do the same thing again -- even though it meantdecided to do the same thing again -- even though it meant
taking out a big short term loan to finance the expansion.taking out a big short term loan to finance the expansion.
Jim Wells’ DecisionJim Wells’ Decision
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What Jim Wells IgnoredWhat Jim Wells Ignored
3
Unfortunately, Jim’s college studiesUnfortunately, Jim’s college studiesnever included a course innever included a course in
macroeconomics so he missed somemacroeconomics so he missed some
rather significant danger signsrather significant danger signs.
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FEDERAL RESERVE
IndividualsIndividuals
GiveGive
DollarsDollarsto Fedto Fed
SellSell
Bonds toBonds to
PublicPublic
IndividualsIndividuals
have lesshave less
money tomoney to
spendspend PossiblePossibleRecessionRecession
Some Danger SignsSome Danger Signs
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More Warning SignsMore Warning Signs
Consumer LessConsumer Less
Confidence =SpendingConfidence =Spending
RecessionaryRecessionary
ImplicationsImplications++
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Unemployment = LessUnemployment = Less
SpendingSpending
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More Warning SignsMore Warning Signs
ExpansionaryExpansionary
MonetaryMonetary
PolicyPolicy
JapaneseJapaneseImports IntoImports Into
US BecomeUS Become
LessLess
ExpensiveExpensive
Value of Value of
YenYen
RelativeRelative
to Dollar to Dollar
Decrease inDecrease inDemand For Demand For
Jim’sJim’s
Computer Computer
ComponentsComponents
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Disaster StrikesDisaster Strikes
3
So Jim got caught with his proverbialSo Jim got caught with his proverbialpants down.pants down.
3 By October, the Japanese had taken over By October, the Japanese had taken over
half of a market that was already shrinkinghalf of a market that was already shrinking
fast from the onset of a recession.fast from the onset of a recession.
3
So Jim got caught with his proverbialSo Jim got caught with his proverbialpants down.pants down.
3 By October, the Japanese had taken over By October, the Japanese had taken over
half of a market that was already shrinkinghalf of a market that was already shrinking
fast from the onset of a recession.fast from the onset of a recession.
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Disaster StrikesDisaster Strikes
3 By Thanksgiving, Jim found himself By Thanksgiving, Jim found himself
sitting on a huge inventory that hesitting on a huge inventory that he
couldn’t give away, and by December hecouldn’t give away, and by December he
was unable to pay a huge loan thatwas unable to pay a huge loan thatwouldn’t go away.wouldn’t go away.
3 By June, he was bankrupt.By June, he was bankrupt.
3 By Thanksgiving, Jim found himself By Thanksgiving, Jim found himself
sitting on a huge inventory that hesitting on a huge inventory that he
couldn’t give away, and by December hecouldn’t give away, and by December he
was unable to pay a huge loan thatwas unable to pay a huge loan thatwouldn’t go away.wouldn’t go away.
3 By June, he was bankrupt.By June, he was bankrupt.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 1616
Jim Meets TeresaJim Meets Teresa
3
Today, Jim works as a consultant for oneToday, Jim works as a consultant for oneof his old Japanese competitors duringof his old Japanese competitors during
the day and studies macroeconomics atthe day and studies macroeconomics at
night in an executive MBA program.night in an executive MBA program.
3 He sits in the front row of class right nextHe sits in the front row of class right next
to Teresa.to Teresa.
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Teresa’s DreamTeresa’s Dream
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Teresa’s GambleTeresa’s Gamble
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Some Warning SignsSome Warning Signs
3
Sure, Teresa felt a little nervous about choosingSure, Teresa felt a little nervous about choosingthe variable rate, but the mortgage banker toldthe variable rate, but the mortgage banker told
her not to worry.her not to worry.
3 Rates had been stable for over three years now,Rates had been stable for over three years now,
and it shouldn’t be any problem.and it shouldn’t be any problem.3 What Teresa failed to see, however, wereWhat Teresa failed to see, however, were
numerous warning signs of growing inflationarynumerous warning signs of growing inflationary
pressures.pressures.
3
Sure, Teresa felt a little nervous about choosingSure, Teresa felt a little nervous about choosing
the variable rate, but the mortgage banker toldthe variable rate, but the mortgage banker told
her not to worry.her not to worry.
3 Rates had been stable for over three years now,Rates had been stable for over three years now,
and it shouldn’t be any problem.and it shouldn’t be any problem.3 What Teresa failed to see, however, wereWhat Teresa failed to see, however, were
numerous warning signs of growing inflationarynumerous warning signs of growing inflationary
pressures.pressures.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2020
Inflationary PressuresInflationary Pressures
Demand-Pull SideDemand-Pull Side
UnemploymentUnemployment
Rate ReachesRate Reaches
Eight Year LowEight Year Low
BusinessesBusinesses
Raise PricesRaise Prices
of Goodsof Goods
SoldSold
Higher Higher
Demand For Demand For
GoodsGoods
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2121
Inflationary PressuresInflationary Pressures
Supply of Goods (Cost Push)Supply of Goods (Cost Push)
Bad CoffeeBad Coffee
CropCrop
World-wideWorld-wide
drought anddrought and
food shortagesfood shortages
Reduction in OilReduction in Oil
SupplySupply
Fall in Value of Fall in Value of
the Dollar the Dollar
SupplySupply
DecreasesDecreases
SupplySupply
DecreasesDecreases
ProducersProducers
RaiseRaise
PricesPrices
Price of Price of
ImportsImports
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2222
Disaster StrikesDisaster Strikes3 Within two years, interest rates had climbed into the doubleWithin two years, interest rates had climbed into the double
digits, and Teresa could no longer afford her skyrocketingdigits, and Teresa could no longer afford her skyrocketing
mortgage payments.mortgage payments.
– With the climb in interest rates, the economy plunged into aWith the climb in interest rates, the economy plunged into a
recession -- taking the real estate market down with it.recession -- taking the real estate market down with it.
3 Teresa tried to sell her house at the original price, but finally,Teresa tried to sell her house at the original price, but finally,
facing the humiliation of foreclosure, she unloaded it forfacing the humiliation of foreclosure, she unloaded it for
$25,000 less than she bought it for – losing every cent of her$25,000 less than she bought it for – losing every cent of her
equity.equity.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2424
The Dismal ScienceThe Dismal Science
3
Despite the enormous impactDespite the enormous impactmacroeconomics has on our personal andmacroeconomics has on our personal and
professional lives, most of us view it as aprofessional lives, most of us view it as a
remote, complicated, and indeed “dismalremote, complicated, and indeed “dismal
science.”science.”
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2525
Some Personal HistorySome Personal History
3
When I first studied and taughtWhen I first studied and taughtmacroeconomics I got quickly buried in amacroeconomics I got quickly buried in a
jumble of graphs and equations. jumble of graphs and equations.
3
I saw that the only way to trulyI saw that the only way to trulyunderstand the importance of understand the importance of
macroeconomics is to teach it within themacroeconomics is to teach it within the
context of its historical evolution.context of its historical evolution.
3 This is important for at least two reasons.This is important for at least two reasons.
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A REAL WORLD CONTEXTA REAL WORLD CONTEXT
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2828
Why History is Important -- IIWhy History is Important -- II3
The second reason to put macroeconomics inThe second reason to put macroeconomics inan historical context is to emphasize that it isan historical context is to emphasize that it is
very much an evolving policy science.very much an evolving policy science.
3 Put simply, the Keynesian solutions which werePut simply, the Keynesian solutions which were
used to lift us out of the Great Depression inused to lift us out of the Great Depression in
the 1930s or to wake us up from the Economicthe 1930s or to wake us up from the Economic
doldrums of the 1960s would be inappropriatedoldrums of the 1960s would be inappropriate
in today's more sophisticated global economy.in today's more sophisticated global economy.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 2929
The Remainder of this First LessonThe Remainder of this First Lesson
3 We’ll briefly define macroeconomicsWe’ll briefly define macroeconomics
and identify key policy issues.and identify key policy issues.
3
We’ll move into a short review of We’ll move into a short review of macroeconomic history.macroeconomic history.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3030
What We’ll DiscoverWhat We’ll Discover
3 We’ll see that the problems facingWe’ll see that the problems facing
macroeconomists have becomemacroeconomists have become
progressively more complex over time:progressively more complex over time:
– unemployment and inflationunemployment and inflation
– stagflationstagflation
– stagnating incomestagnating income
– chronic budget and trade deficits.chronic budget and trade deficits.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3131
What We’ll DiscoverWhat We’ll Discover
3 We’ll also see that new macroeconomicWe’ll also see that new macroeconomic
theories have emerged in response to thistheories have emerged in response to this
increasing complexity at key turningincreasing complexity at key turning
points in the world’s economic history:points in the world’s economic history:
– Keynesianism in the 1930sKeynesianism in the 1930s
– Monetarism in the 1970sMonetarism in the 1970s
– Supply Side economics in the 1980sSupply Side economics in the 1980s
– and New Classical economics in the 1990s.and New Classical economics in the 1990s.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3232
Macroeconomics DefinedMacroeconomics Defined
3 The wordThe word macromacro means big or large, andmeans big or large, andmacroeconomics focuses on the bigmacroeconomics focuses on the big
economic picture -- specifically, how theeconomic picture -- specifically, how the
overall national economy performs.overall national economy performs.
3 Macroeconomics is distinguished fromMacroeconomics is distinguished from
microeconomicsmicroeconomics which deals with thewhich deals with the
behavior of individual markets and thebehavior of individual markets and the
businesses, consumers, investors, andbusinesses, consumers, investors, and
workers that make up the economy.workers that make up the economy.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3333
The “Big Four” Policy IssuesThe “Big Four” Policy Issues
3 InflationInflation
3 UnemploymentUnemployment
3 The Rate of Economic GrowthThe Rate of Economic Growth
3 Movements in the Business CycleMovements in the Business Cycle
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3434
Macro Problem #1: InflationMacro Problem #1: Inflation
3 Defined as an upward movement of Defined as an upward movement of
prices from one year to the next.prices from one year to the next.
3
Measured by the percentage change inMeasured by the percentage change in
price indices such as the Consumer Priceprice indices such as the Consumer Price
Index, the Producer Price Index, or theIndex, the Producer Price Index, or the
so-called GDP deflator.so-called GDP deflator.
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Housing
32%
Transportation
19%
Food
17%
Health
6%
Insurance and pensions
9%
Education
1%Personal care
1%
Miscellaneous
5%
Entertainment
5%
Clothing
5%
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Consumer Price IndexConsumer Price IndexConsumer Price IndexConsumer Price Index
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
24
6
8
10
12
14
16
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Consumer Price Index
Inflation Averaged 3.4Inflation Averaged 3.4
percent a year. percent a year.
Source:U.S. Department of Labor Source:U.S. Department of Labor
14 percent in 194714 percent in 1947
Minus 10 percent inMinus 10 percent in
19321932
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3838
Increase inIncrease in
our our
PaychecksPaychecks
Our purchasing power Our purchasing power
declinesdeclines
The Cruelest TaxThe Cruelest Tax
InflationInflation
(Prices of Goods)(Prices of Goods)
is greater is greater
thanthan
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 3939
Not Everyone LosesNot Everyone Loses
3 Inflation that is unanticipated can benefitInflation that is unanticipated can benefit
borrowers at the expense of lenders.borrowers at the expense of lenders.
3
How might this happen?How might this happen?
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4040
How This WorksHow This Works
3 Suppose you borrow $1,000 from a bank Suppose you borrow $1,000 from a bank
and promise to repay it in two years.and promise to repay it in two years.
3
If, during that time, the price levelIf, during that time, the price level
doubles because of inflation, the $1,000doubles because of inflation, the $1,000
which you repay will have only half of which you repay will have only half of
the purchasing power of the $1,000the purchasing power of the $1,000
originally borrowed.originally borrowed.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4141
Macro Problem #2: UnemploymentMacro Problem #2: Unemployment
3 The unemployment rateThe unemployment rate is measured as theis measured as the
number of unemployed persons divided bynumber of unemployed persons divided by
the number of people in the labor force.the number of people in the labor force.
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Unemployment Rate Since 1900Unemployment Rate Since 1900
Percentageof
laborfo
rceunemploy
ed
Percent ag
eoflaborfo
rceune m
ployed
19301930 19901990
Year Year
19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980
3030
2020
1010
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1920192019001900 19101910
Average
unemployment
Actual
unemployment
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4343
Kinds of UnemploymentKinds of Unemployment
3 In talking about unemployment,In talking about unemployment,
economists distinguish between threeeconomists distinguish between three
kinds:kinds: frictionalfrictional,, cyclicalcyclical, and, and structural.structural.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4444
Frictional UnemploymentFrictional Unemployment
3 Frictional unemploymentFrictional unemployment is the least of is the least of the macroeconomist’s worries.the macroeconomist’s worries.
3 It occurs as a natural part of the job-It occurs as a natural part of the job-
seeking process as people quit their jobsseeking process as people quit their jobs just long enough to look for and find just long enough to look for and find
another one.another one.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4545
Cyclical UnemploymentCyclical Unemployment
3 Cyclical unemploymentCyclical unemployment is a much moreis a much moreserious problem.serious problem.
3 It occurs when the economy dips into aIt occurs when the economy dips into a
recession.recession.3 It is this type of unemployment thatIt is this type of unemployment that
macroeconomists have historically spentmacroeconomists have historically spent
most of their time trying to solve.most of their time trying to solve.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4646
Structural UnemploymentStructural Unemployment
3 Structural unemploymentStructural unemployment occursoccurswhen a change in technology makeswhen a change in technology makes
someone’s job or job skills obsolete.someone’s job or job skills obsolete.
– E.g., the auto worker replaced by aE.g., the auto worker replaced by arobot or the telephone informationrobot or the telephone information
operator replaced by a computerizedoperator replaced by a computerized
voice synthesizer.voice synthesizer.
3 Structural unemploymentStructural unemployment occursoccurswhen a change in technology makeswhen a change in technology makes
someone’s job or job skills obsolete.someone’s job or job skills obsolete.
– E.g., the auto worker replaced by aE.g., the auto worker replaced by arobot or the telephone informationrobot or the telephone information
operator replaced by a computerizedoperator replaced by a computerized
voice synthesizer.voice synthesizer.
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M P bl #3
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4747
Macro Problem #3:Macro Problem #3:
The Rate of Economic GrowthThe Rate of Economic Growth3 Measured by growth in the Gross DomesticMeasured by growth in the Gross Domestic
Product or “GDP.”Product or “GDP.”
3 GDP is defined as the market value of all theGDP is defined as the market value of all the
final final goods and services produced in agoods and services produced in a
country in a given year.country in a given year.
– Economists have two ways of measuring GDP,Economists have two ways of measuring GDP,
the “flow-of-cost” or “income” approach and thethe “flow-of-cost” or “income” approach and the“flow of product” or “expenditures” approach.“flow of product” or “expenditures” approach.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4848
Consumption expenditures by householdsConsumption expenditures by households
plus plus
Investment expenditures by businessesInvestment expenditures by businesses
plus plus
Government purchases of goods and servicesGovernment purchases of goods and services
plus plus
Net exports=total exports-total imports Net exports=total exports-total imports
=GDP=GDP
Flow of product, or expenditures,Flow of product, or expenditures,
approachapproach
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 4949
Consumption expenditures by householdsConsumption expenditures by households
plus plus
Investment expenditures by businessesInvestment expenditures by businesses
plus plus
Government purchases of goods and servicesGovernment purchases of goods and services
plus plus
Net exports Net exports
WagesWages
plus plus
RentsRents
plus plus
InterestInterest
plus plus
ProfitsProfits
Flow of cost, or income, approachFlow of cost, or income, approach
=GDP==GDP=
Flow of product, or expenditures,Flow of product, or expenditures,
approachapproach
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 5050
Actual vs. Potential GDPActual vs. Potential GDP3 Actual GDP Actual GDP represents what we are producing.represents what we are producing.
3 Potential GDP Potential GDP represents the maximum amountrepresents the maximum amount
the economy can produce without causingthe economy can produce without causing
inflation.inflation.
3 When actual GDP isWhen actual GDP is lessless than potential GDP,than potential GDP,we are in the recessionary range of thewe are in the recessionary range of the
economy.economy.
3 When actual GDP isWhen actual GDP is aboveabove potential GDP, wepotential GDP, we
run the strong risk of inflation.run the strong risk of inflation.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 5252
Nominal vs. Real GDPNominal vs. Real GDP
3 Nominal GDP is measured in actual marketNominal GDP is measured in actual market
prices.prices.
3 Real GDP is nominal GDP adjusted forReal GDP is nominal GDP adjusted for
inflation.inflation.
3 Moreover, when we divide nominal GDPMoreover, when we divide nominal GDP
by real GDP, we obtain the GDP deflator-by real GDP, we obtain the GDP deflator-
another valuable inflation index.another valuable inflation index.
Click here for a numericalClick here for a numerical
example of the GDPexample of the GDP
deflator deflator
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Output GrowthOutput Growth
3 GDP is the best widely available measureof the level and growth of output in the
economy.
3 GDP is the best widely available measureof the level and growth of output in the
economy.
xcut
xcut
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U.S. Real GDP, 1929-1994U.S. Real GDP, 1929-1994
19301930 19901990
5,0005,000
Year RealGD
P(billionsof
dollars ,
1987prices)
Th
eGre
atDepression
TheGre
atDepression
Vietnam
War
Vietnam
War
Firstoilshock
Firstoilshock
TightM
oney
TightM
oney
Su
pply-s
idetax
Supply-s
idetax
Jobless
Recover
y
Jobless
Recover
y
World
WarII
World
WarII
Postwardemobi li
zation
Postwa
rdemobi li
zation
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3During those periods, real andDuring those periods, real and
nominal GDP were moving innominal GDP were moving in
opposite directions.opposite directions.
3 This point underscores why it is soThis point underscores why it is so
important to focus on real GDP asimportant to focus on real GDP as
the best measure of growth.the best measure of growth.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 5757
Business CyclesBusiness Cycles
3 Closely related to the issue of economicClosely related to the issue of economic
growth and real GDP as a measure of growth and real GDP as a measure of
such growth is the problem of “businesssuch growth is the problem of “business
cycles.”cycles.”
3 The term business cycle refers to theThe term business cycle refers to the
recurrent ups and downs in real GDPrecurrent ups and downs in real GDP
over several years.over several years.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 5858
TimeTime
Levelofbusin
essacti
vity
Levelo fb
usinessacti
vity
G r o w t h G r o w t h
T r e n d
T r e n d
T r o u g h
T r o u g h
T r o u g h T r o u g h
P e a k P e a k
P e a k P e a k
R e c e s s i o n
R e c e s s i o n
R e c e s s i o n
R e c e s s i o n
R e c o v e r y
R e c o v e r y
R e c o v e r y
R e c o v e r y
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 5959
Do Business Cycles ExistDo Business Cycles Exist
3 A central concern of macroeconomists is toA central concern of macroeconomists is to
determine whether a business cycle exists and, if so,determine whether a business cycle exists and, if so,
what are the forces behind it.what are the forces behind it.
3
More importantly, both macroeconomists and theMore importantly, both macroeconomists and thepolitical leaders they may serve want to know whatpolitical leaders they may serve want to know what
macroeconomic policies may be used to control ormacroeconomic policies may be used to control or
harness the business cycle.harness the business cycle.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 6060
At The Same TimeAt The Same Time
3 A central concern of business is toA central concern of business is to
determine whether the economy is goingdetermine whether the economy is going
into a contraction or expansion--with ainto a contraction or expansion--with a
correct guess being the differencecorrect guess being the difference
between a big profit or a big loss.between a big profit or a big loss.
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 6161
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with the presentationwith the presentation
Lecturer: Peter NavarroLecturer: Peter Navarro
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End of Part 1End of Part 1
Multimedia Designer: Ron Kahr Multimedia Designer: Ron Kahr
Female Voice: Ashley West LeonardFemale Voice: Ashley West Leonard
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The GDP DeflatorThe GDP Deflator
A E lA E l
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 6464
An ExampleAn Example
3 Say a country produces 1000 bushels of corn inSay a country produces 1000 bushels of corn in
year 1 and 1010 bushels in year 2.year 1 and 1010 bushels in year 2.
– This means that corn production grew by oneThis means that corn production grew by one
percent between the two years.percent between the two years.
3
The price of a bushel is $1 in year 1 and $2 inThe price of a bushel is $1 in year 1 and $2 inyear 2.year 2.
– Prices grew by 100 percent.Prices grew by 100 percent.
3 What is the rate of growth in nominal GDP?What is the rate of growth in nominal GDP?
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 6565
An ExampleAn Example
3 Nominal GDP is simply P times Q.Nominal GDP is simply P times Q.
– Year 1 GDP=$1*$1000=$1000Year 1 GDP=$1*$1000=$1000
– Year 2 GDP=$2*$1010=$2020Year 2 GDP=$2*$1010=$2020
– Thus, nominal GDP grew by 102%.Thus, nominal GDP grew by 102%.
3 Now, what is the rate of growth inNow, what is the rate of growth in real real
GDP?GDP?
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Lesson One Part 1Lesson One Part 1 6666
An ExampleAn Example
3 The inflation-adjusted real GDP isThe inflation-adjusted real GDP is
simply the second year’s output valued insimply the second year’s output valued in
the first or base year of $1.the first or base year of $1.
3 1010 bushels*$1=$10101010 bushels*$1=$1010
– This means that GDP grew by only 1This means that GDP grew by only 1
percent.percent.
3 What’s the GDP deflator for year 2?What’s the GDP deflator for year 2?
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An ExampleAn Example
3 The inflation-adjusted real GDP isThe inflation-adjusted real GDP is
simply the second year’s output valued insimply the second year’s output valued in
the first or base year of $1.the first or base year of $1.
3 1010 bushels*$1=$10101010 bushels*$1=$1010
– This means that GDP grew by only 1This means that GDP grew by only 1
percent.percent.
3 What’s the GDP deflator for year 2?What’s the GDP deflator for year 2? – $2020/$1010= 2$2020/$1010= 2
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