©THE ELWAY POLL 21 MAR 18

© THE ELWAY POLL Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.

Legislature Gets Highest Grades in 9 Years from Lobbyists

21 MARCH 18

Membersofthelegislature’s“thirdhouse”—registeredlobbyists—gavethe2018sessiontheirhighestperformancegradesbyfarinthe9yearsoftheElwayPoll’sannualLegislativeReportCard.Thisyear’s“C+”(GPA=2.47)wasafullpointhigherthanlastyear’sgrade(1.46).Itisthe irstyearinwhich“A”and“B”gradesoutnumbered“Ds”andFs”(52%to15%).Infact,itisthehighestnumberof“As”and“Bs”andthelowestnumberof“Ds”and“Fs”recorded.(graphonp.2).This sessiongothighergrades than lastyearon8of9 issuecategoriesexcept transportation,whichstayedessentiallythesame(2.38vs.2.41).Thehighestgrade(2.95)wenttotheperformanceonK-12edu-cationissues,owinglargelytotheresolutionoftheschoolfundingissue.SocialandHumanServicesissueswerenext(2.60)followedbyHigherEducation(2.54).Finishingontimeisconsideredabigaccomplishmentthesedays:ittoppedthelistasthe“mostsigni i-cant accomplishment” of the session, named by 18% of respondents.K-12 fundingwas volunteered by15%, followedby social servicesbills (10%).The rejectionof news taxes (10%), including the carbon tax and capitalgainstaxproposalswaslistedas“mostsigni icant”by10%ofrespondents(p.2).Failureofthecarbontaxwascitedasthe#1disappoint-mentofthesession,namedby14%ofrespondents.Inactionongunsafetywasnamedby11%.Some12%listedspeci icbillspassedastheirchiefdisappointment,while10%listedspeci icbillsthatwererejected.A total of 18% made complaints about the Democrats’management of the session, including 7% who said theywerebreakinglegislativerulesordidnotallowenoughde-bate; 7% who cited lack of iscal restraint; and 4% whoclaimedtheywerepayingofftheirspecialinterestbackers.Predictably, the session’s highest grades came from so-cial services lobbyists (2.85) and education advocates(2.76).Thelowestgradescamefromthebusiness(2.15)andenvironmentallobbies(2.22).Socialserviceslobbyistsgavethelegislaturea3.14foritsworkontheirissues.Theeducationlobbygavethesessiona3.04forK-12educationanda2.92forhighereducation.TheK-12workalsogota3.16fromlaboranda3.15frompublicsectorlobbyists.Business and environmental advocates were the mostdisappointedwith this session. Environmentalists gave thelegislature the lowest grade from any lobby for any topic(1.85) for its work on environmental issues. The secondlowestgrade(1.92)wasgivenbythebusinesslobbyforthesession’sworkoneconomicissues.

2018 LEGISLATURE REPORT CARD

OVERALL PERFORMANCE C+ K-12 Education B- Social/Human Services C+ Higher Education C+. Public Safety C+ Transportation C+. Health Care C. The Economy C Environment/Nat.Resources C

LEGISLATURE “GPA”: 2010 –2018

©THE ELWAY POLL 21 MAR 18

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SESSION GRADES 2010-2018

Democratic Caucuses Graded Highest of “5 Corners” SenateDemocrats received thehighestgradesof the so-called “5 corners”of the legislativeprocess,followedcloselyby theircounterparts in theHouse.SenateDemocratshada2.44“gradepointaver-age,”with48%gradingtheman“A”or“B”.HouseDemocratswereclosebehindat2.42,witha55%majoritygivingtheman“A”or“B”grade.HouseRepublicans,whohadthehighestgradeinlastyear’ssession,werewellbehindwitha2.14averageand36%gradingthem“A”or“B”.SenateRepublicansslippedtofourthplace,fromthirdlow-estyearwitha2.11averageand37%“A”or“B”grades.TheGovernor’sof icehadthelowestgradesofthesession,as ithaseveryyear.Thisyear’saveragewas1.74with28%“A”or“B”vs.48%“D”or“F”.TheGovernor’sof icegotitslowestfromtheenvi-ronmentallobby(1.27).Inslee’s of ice’s overall average is 1.37 since hisirstsessionin2013.Bywayofcomparison,ChristineGregoire’s average for her last 3 sessions (the irsttimethisgradingwasdone)was1.83, toppingoutat2.03inher inalsession—higherthananyofthe4cau-cuses and just behind the Majority Coalition in theSenate.Thegradesforall5cornerswasupoverlastyear,re lectingtheoverallhigherratingsforthisyear’sses-sioncomparedtopreviousyears.Senate Democrats got their highest ratings fromthe education lobby (2.92); House Democrats fromsocialservicesadvocates(2.94).House Republicans got their highest grades fromthe transportation lobby (2.52); Senate Republicansfrombusiness(2.50).

2018 GRADES BY PROGRAM AREA

GRADING THE “5 CORNERS”

OUTCOME DISAPPOINTMENT

The questions were open-ended. Answers were coded into these categories.

2.11

1.73 1.65 1.54

1.70 1.87 1.43

1.78

GPA 2.47

2.95

2.60

2.54

2.47

2.38

2.27 2.21

2.44

2.42

2.14

2.11

1.74

1.46

2.47

Finished On Time 18% K-12 Funding 15% Soc Svcs Bills 10% No New Taxes 10% Capital Budget 8% Hirst Fix 8% Volume of Bills 7% Specific Legislation 6% Progressive Legislation 6% Deadly Force Bill 6% Supplemental Budget 3%

No Carbon Tax 14% Specific Bills Passed 12% Gun Safety Inaction 11% Specific Bills Stopped 10% Public Records Bill 8% Lack of Fiscal Restraint 7% Process 7% Death Penalty 5% Special Interest pay offs 4% Partisan Polarization 4% Lack of Climate Action 3% No New Revenue 3% Governor 2% Quantity of Bad Bills 2% Anti Business 2%

Most Significant Outcome & Disappointment

©THE ELWAY POLL 21 MAR 18

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PROCESS • SenateDemocratsstruggledwiththemechanicsofbe-inginthemajority.Fortunatelyforthem,SenateRepub-licanswerehit-and-missastheloyalopposition.HouseDemocratsstucktotheirtiredgameplanofbasingtheirbudgetonataxhike,withnorealintentionofbringingittoavote.Meanwhile,HouseRepublicans ieldedanimpressiveoppositiontoafewkeybills,demonstratingagaintheirmasteryoftheminority,buthaveyettoturnthatintoamessagethatwillresonatewithvoters.

• Ongoingdisregardforpublicprocessisdisappointing.Thissessionshowedthistrendisnotpartisan-lackoftoleranceforauthenticpublicinputisembeddedintohowtheyprefertodobusiness.

• DemocratsprovedthatmajorityleadershipintheHouseandSenatewouldleadtogoodlegislationand inishingon-time.

• Democratsdemonstratedtheycannotresistspendingnewrevenue.Theyneedtobreakthathabitandfocusmoreonpolicy.

• Besidesgoingatadizzyingpacetopassmajorlegisla-tion,theDemocratmajoritiesshowedalackofregardforprocedureandprocess,especiallytowardtheend.

• Overall,itwasnice,intheendtoactuallyseepolicycon-cernsworkedwithreasonablenessandwithoutlettingtheextremestriumph.

PARTISANSHIP • Thebipartisanapproachofthelastseveralyearsisgone.Notagoodthingforpublicpolicy.

• Ithoughttheyconsideredmore,hadbetterbipartisanworkandthe inishedontime!!

• Therewerealotofopportunitiesforbi-partisanship,buttheDemocratschosenottotakethem.

• TheHouseRepublicansexhibitedsignsofStockholmSyndromethissession.

• The2018LegislaturewasastrategicsuccessforDemo-crats,whodemonstratedthattheycouldgoverneffec-tivelyifgiventhechancewhileatthesametimedismiss-ingRepublicanfearmongeringthataDemocraticma-joritywouldresultinover-regulationortax-and-spendbudgeting.

PENT UP DEMAND • Therewasalotofpent-upenergyrelatedtowrappingupMcClearyandD'sgainingcontroloftheSenatewhichcreatedafreneticpaceandanapparentdisre-gardforprocessandourstateconstitution.Ithinksomeinterestingprecedentsweresetthissessionthatwillnotservethepublic.

• WiththeDemsincontrol,theyunderstandablywantedtocatchupwiththeiragenda.Basicallytunnelvision.

• Thisfunctionalgoverningiswhathappens,itseems,when iveyearsofdisingenuousness,obstructionism,andconservativeRepublicanantiquatedideologicalconstipationisremovedfromtheprocess.

• ThesheervolumeofbillsonavarietyofissuesthatwonoverwhelmingsupportintheSenateshowsRepublicanleadershiphasbeenblockingpopularinitiatives.

PACE • Shortsessiontreatedlikealongsessionwithlotsofmajorpolicyconsidered.Crazyandoverwhelmingpaceatthebeginningofsession.

• Becauseofthenumberofbillsthesessionwasunneces-sarilyfastpaced.Somegoodandimportantbillsdiedbecausesomuchtimewasspenton'hero'bills.

• Adisappointingsession,toomanybillsrushedthroughforashortsessiongivingtheappearanceofapanicked,disorganizedleadership,withlatehearingsandoftenlittlenotice.OverallimpressionofDemocratmanage-mentinthelegislaturewasofthedeerintheheadlightsvariety.Notimpressive!

• Thiswasthefastestpacedshortsessioninallmyyearslobbying.Committeeshitthegroundrunning,billswerepassedinthe irstfewweeks,andnewSenateDcommit-teechairsdidagreatjoboflisteningandacting.

• Thevolumeoflegislationintroducedandconsideredwassigni icantlygreaterthaninanysessioninmemory.Therewasalsoasigni icantdeclineinlegislatorswork-ingconstructivelywithstakeholdersto indsolutionsthanintherecentpast.

• Majoritypartieslackedthedisciplinetosetandfocusonalimited,meaningfulagenda.

The Last Word. A sampling respondents‘ observations about the session.

POLICY • ItwasbreathtakingtoseethesuccessfulpaceoftheLegislaturethisyear— inishingontimewhile"runningthetable"onfullyfundingMcCleary,majorpositivere-formstovotingregistrationandvotingrights,improv-ingfundingforaffordablehousingandhomelessser-vices,establishingsomemeaningfulcriminaljusticereforms...netneutralityandACA/RPAprovisions,pro-tectingorcasandnativesalmon,andallwhilenotjustnotraisingtaxesbutactuallycuttingtheRepublicans'nastypropertytaxincrease/shiftfrom2017.

• Wasabadyearforbusinessandtherulesdidnotmat-ter,senateraidedrainydayfundwithsimplemajorityandruleswerefor60%.Thiswashorrible.

• Veryproductiveonanumberoffronts,Lowincomehousing,McCleary inal ix,votingrightsallgood.

• Laborwonbigvictoriesacrosstheboard;SEIU775 ixbeingthemostsigni icant-andcorrupt.Triallawyerswonbigvictorywithmandatoryarbitrationlimitin-creased.Businesscommunityplayedconstantdefense;hardtopointtopositivebillspassedtohelptheprivatesector.Waronbusinesscommunityatalltimes.Healthinsurancecommunityhitparticularlyhard.

PUBLIC RECORDS • TheGovernorwillgetapublicpollingboostfromhisvetothepublicrecordsactbill,butitcomesattheex-penseofrelationshipswithhislegislativecolleagues.

• TheOpenRecords iascocastashadowoverthewholesession.

• Thebigface-plantwasthehastily-conceivedandvoteduponPublicRecordsActbill. • webadlyneedincreasedmediacoverage

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Sample Prof i le

The Elway Poll

T h e E l w a y P o l l S e a t t l e , W A

2 0 6 / 2 6 4 - 1 5 0 0 F A X : 2 6 4 - 0 3 0 1 epoll@elwayresearch.com

ISSUE FOCUS [Multiple Answers Allowed] Business .................................................................. 34% Health Care .............................................................. 31% Government / Public Sector ..................................... 23% Natural Resources / Environment ............................ 23% Social/Human Services ............................................ 21% Education ................................................................. 15% Labor ........................................................................ 18% Transportation .......................................................... 12% Public Safety ............................................................ 10% Other ........................................................................ 10%

INDEPENDENT OR EMPLOYED Independent / Contract Lobbyist .............................. 41% Employed by Organization ....................................... 55% Citizen / Unpaid .......................................................... 2%

TENURE 1-5 years .................................................................. 24% 6-10 years ................................................................ 24% 11-20 years .............................................................. 20% 21+ years ................................................................. 32%

The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public opinion in Washington and the Northwest. PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each quarter, space is reserved in the questionnaire to allow for proprietary questions. The fee for proprietary questions is $1000 per question. You will receive the results of your question(s) with full crosstabulations within two days after the interviews are completed.

Third House Expects Larger Democratic Majorities in House & Senate Next Year Lobbyistrespondingtothissurveyoverwhelming-lythinktheywillbeworkingwithlargerDemocrat-icmajorities inbothhousesofthelegislaturenextyear. Three-quarters of these lobbyists (75%) ex-pecttheDemocratstoaddtotheirmajority intheHouse and two-thirds (66%) expect more Demo-cratsintheSenatenextyear.Only1%thoughttheRepublicanswouldretakethe Senate, and only 2% thought the GOP wouldcapturetheHouseinthisyear’selections.Lobbyists who had been around the longestwereleastlikelytothinktheDemocratswouldaddto their majorities—although most did. Amongthose in Olympia for more than 20 years, 54%thought the Democrats would gain in the Senateand66%thoughttheywouldgainintheHouse.Among thosewith fewer than20years experi-ence, 71% thought the Democrats would gain inthe Senate and 80% thought they would add totheirhousemajority.EXPECTATIONS FOR 2018 ELECTIONS

SENATE

HOUSE

The higher grades beg the question of whether this year’s respondents were substantially different from those in previ-ous years.

The survey was completed by online by 178 current and recent registered lobbyists (compared to 162 last year).

The profile of the respondents to this year’s survey was gen-erally equivalent to previous years. Each category was within 7 percentage points of last year’s sample. Compared to last year, in this sample there was:

A higher proportion of lobbyists representing health care (31% vs. 26%); and lower from business (34% / 39%); edu-cation (15% / 18%); public agencies (23% / 26%); social services (21% / 23%); transportation (12% / 19%); public safety (10% / 11%).

The proportions were the same for lobbyists representing labor (18%) and environmental interests (23%).

Independent, contract lobbyists made up 41% of the sam-ple, and 47% represent multiple clients, so the percentages do not add to 100%.

The table below presents a profile of those responding.