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8/12/2019 Lecture Slides-cc Dk 001

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Professor David KarolySchool of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

UNIB10007Introduction to Climate Change

Climate change: Is there a problem?


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Some views from leaders

Ban Ki Moon Climate change is the greatest threatfacing humanity. It threatens to undo 50 years of ourdevelopment work and it will impact the poor in the

greatest sense.

Barack Obama We will respond to the threat ofclimate change, knowing that the failure to do sowould betray our children and future generations.

Kevin Rudd: Climate change is the greatest moral,economic and social challenge of our time


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Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC)

Joint body of UN Environment Program and WorldMeteorological Organization, established in 1988

Every 5-6 years, carries out a comprehensive assessment ofclimate change science, impacts, and approaches formitigation and adaptation to climate change

Includes representatives from all countries Fourth Assessment Report prepared by more than 500

scientists over the last three years

Summaries for Policy Makers approved by consensus(including representatives of the Australian govt) at meetings

in Paris (Feb 07), Brussels (Apr 07) and Bangkok (May 07) Received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Al Gore


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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in global average

temperatures since the mid-20th century is verylikely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic

greenhouse gas concentrations

Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or abovecurrent rates would cause further warming andinduce many changes in the global climate systemduring the 21st century that would very likely belarger than those observed during the 20th century

21st century anthropogenic CO2emissions willcontribute to warming and sea level rise for morethan a millennium, due to the long timescalesrequired for removal of this gas


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Global mean temperature to 2012


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Global ocean heat content change


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Indicators of global warming(from State of the Climate 2009, Bull Am Met Soc, 2010)


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Greenhouse gas concentrations

Concentrations in 2011CO2 = 390 ppm, CO2-e = 473 ppm


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Causes of

climatechangeFrom http://www.skepticalscience.com/


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Observed and modeled minimum Arctic

sea-ice extent in September


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Projected climate

change hotspotsin Australia

(from IPCC AR4

WGII, chapt 11)


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Global CO2Emissions from Fossil Fuels


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Who has caused the problem?UNFCCC includes principle that: Parties should protect theclimate system...on the basis of equity and in accordance with

their common but differentiated responsibilities and respectivecapabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties shouldtake the lead in combating climate change(UNFCCC, Art.3.1).

Regional greenhouse gas emissions in 2004


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Budget approachCumulative emissions

allowed for 25% risk of

exceeding 2C Equal per capita

emissions allowance

Global budget of1000Gt CO2until 2050

For world population of7G, 140 t CO2percapita budget until 2050

For Aust emissions of19 t CO2 per person

from fossil fuels, budgetis used in about 7 years

Fig 5.1, The Science of ClimateChange,AAS 2010


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The Critical Decade: Key messages(2011)

Australian Climate Commission

There is no doubt that the climate is changing. Theevidence is overwhelming and clear.We are already seeing the social, economic andenvironmental impacts of a changing climate.

It is beyond reasonable doubt that human activities the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation aretriggering the changes we are witnessing in the globalclimate.

This is the critical decade. Decisions we make fromnow to 2020 will determine the severity of climatechange our children and grandchildren experience.

http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/


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Image Credits

Slide Details

5 The Escalator (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47) by Skeptical Science (CC BY 3.0)

6 Total Heat Content (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=4) by Skeptical Science (CC BY 3.0)

7 (Diagram) Ten Indicators of a warming world from 2009 The State of the Climate. National Oceanic andAtmospherica Administration U.S. Department of Commerce. (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2009/bams-sotc-2009-brochure-lo-rez.pdf) Pg 2.

Reproduced as allowed under copyright for official U.S. government authored documents.

8 Fig 1 CO2 levels (ppm) over the last 10,000 years.http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-measurements-uncertainty.htmby Skeptical Science (CC BY 3.0)

9 Human Fingerprints (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=32) by Skeptical Science (CC BY 3.0)

10 Sea Ice Prediction (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/sea_ice_prediction.jpg) by Skeptical Science(CC BY 3.0)

11 Figure 11.5 Key hotspots identified for Australia and New Zealand, assuming a medium emissions scenariofor 2050. Chapter 11.7: Conclusions: implications for sustainable development in IPCC Fourth AssessmentReport: Climate Change 2007. (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch11s11-7.html)

12 CO2 Emissions vs IPCC Scenarios (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=20) by SkepticalScience (CC BY 3.0)

13 Figure 2.2a Distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions according to the population of different countrygroupings in 2004. Chapter 2.1Emissions of long-lived GHGs in Synthesis Report in IPCC FourthAssessment Report: Climate Change 2007. (

https://reader010.{domain}/reader010/html5/0617/5b25b3d20a214/5b25b3dcb)

14 Figure 5.1 from The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers, Australian Academy of Science.August 2010 (http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf) pg. 13. Reproduced as allowedunder AAS Copyright Statement.

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